ARMENIA
Armenia Observes Massacre Centenary
In a solemn observation at capital, Yerevan, tens of thousands of Armenians joined by world dignitaries attended the main event on April 24, 2015 at the Tsitsernakaberd Memorial Complex, country's main memorial where an eternal flame keeps burning to honor the massacre victims, to pay rich tribute to an estimated 1.5 million Armenians butchered 100 years ago at the hand of Ottoman Turkish empire. The dignitaries included Russian President Vladimir Putin and French President Francois Hollande, who were greeted warmly by their Armenian counterpart President Serzh Sargsyan. Many Armenians were disappointed that the US President Barack Obama didn't come to Yerevan, in part, not to disturb the delicate balance in diplomacy with Turkey which refused to call the event 100 years ago as genocide. White House called the event the "Centennial Commemoration of the Events of 1915", and sent Treasury Secretary Jack Lew to attend the commemoration.
Fight Ensues between Old Foes over a Contested Enclave
Fighting between Armenian and Azerbaijan troops erupted on April 2, 2016 in the contested Azerbaijani enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh, a prefecture whose autonomous and separatist governorate was backed and armed by Armenia. An internationally mediated cease-fire in 1994 ended almost daily skirmishes between the two former Soviet Republics. So, the complete breakdown of the fragile truce created another headache for the international community, including Russia that supplied weapons and aid to both nations. Residents of Nagorno-Karabakh have historic ties to Armenian people, and since 1994 truce, a sizable presence of Armenian troops helped provide the security and stability of the approximately 4,400 square mile separatist region. Russian President Vladimir Putin as well as other international leaders urged restraint on the both sides.
Fighting Continues for the Third Straight Day
A day after Azerbaijan announced a unilateral cease-fire, fighting continued in Nagorno-Karabakh for the third straight day on April 4, 2016 with no end in sight and hourly claims and counterclaims by the sides. Meanwhile, hectic diplomacy was in the full swing in world capitals from Washington to Moscow to prevent the region from sliding into anarchy for the first time since 1994 when a fragile truce took hold.
Cease-fire Reached
After three days (April 2-4, 2016) of worst fighting since a 1994 truce had ended decades-old skirmishes in Nagorno-Karabakh, Azerbaijan and the leaders of the separatist region agreed on a truce on April 5, 2016.
Peace Process Begins
After a Russia-brokered truce took into effect on April 5, 2016, negotiators from the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe met on April 9, 2016 at Yerevan to find a path forward for reconciliation and peace between the warring parties over Nagorno-Karabakh. The recent flare-up that had erupted on April 2, 2016 had killed at least 75 people on both sides, and even after the truce went into effect on April 5, 2016, both Armenia and Azerbaijan accused each other of truce violations. What had happened on April 2, 2016 in Nagorno-Karabakh was the worst escalation since a 1994 truce ended the last bout of fighting. After seeing the conflict almost spiraling out of control, Russia, US and France pushed and put together the framework for a truce under the auspices of OSCE, and the truce finally went into effect on April 5, 2016. After the Yerevan meeting on April 9, 2016, Russian ambassador to OSCE Igor Popov said that the civilian and military leadership from both sides had "demonstrated a readiness to preserve truce". Azerbaijan's President Ilham Aliyev echoed the sentiment on April 9, 2016 although saying clearly that his government would not give up any territory.
101st Anniversary of the Start of Genocide Marked
About 15,000 demonstrators took part a candle-light march at Yerevan on April 23, 2016, on the eve of April 24, 1915, launch of what historians called one of the worst genocide in which approximately 1.5 million Armenians were killed by the then-Ottoman Empire. However, the descendant state of Ottoman Empire, the modern day Turkey, refused to recognize the killings as genocide.
Burundi Woman Receives Prize from Clooney
On the 101st anniversary of the launch of history's one of worst genocide in which 1.5 million Armenians were butchered by Ottoman Empire, actor George Clooney on April 24, 2016 awarded the first Aurora Prize to a Burundian woman for her work to uplift and advance humanitarian cause. The $1.1 million was awarded to Ms. Marguerite Barankitse at Yerevan.
************************ POPE'S VISIT TO ARMENIA *****************************
Pope Calls World War I Killings of Armenians a "Genocide"
Pope Francis, never shy of speaking his mind, on June 24, 2016 called out the massacre of Armenians a century ago as the first "genocide" of the 20th century, and condemned the inaction of the international community "in this case and in the other two" that followed, referring to Nazism and Stalinism. Although the initial draft issued by the Vatican didn't include the word "genocide" in an effort not to antagonize Turkey, the word eventually found its way to the papal speech delivered on June 24, 2016 at the presidential palace in Yerevan to a host of dignitaries, including Armenian President Serzh Sargyan, Armenian political and religious leaders. The occasion reflects Pope Francis' unwavering stance to speak his mind even on topics that can stir the political hornet's nest.
************************ POPE'S VISIT TO ARMENIA *****************************
Long-time Ruler Forced to Resign as the Former Soviet Republic Teeters on the Brink
An 11-day popular protest and sit-in outside the parliament stirred Yerevan's power balance, forcing the just-approved premier, Serzh Sargsyan, 63, to resign on April 23, 2018. The political unraveling began in March 2018 as the 10-year presidential term limit eliminated the possibility for President Sargsyan from seeking re-election. However, instead of retiring from high-profile public life, Serzh Sargsyan played the game that Russian President Vladimir Putin once played by maneuvering the system as the Russian strongman had hit his own term limit to become the premier of the nation and, after five years, ascending to the coveted post of presidency. On April 13, 2018, ruling party lawmakers muscled through the parliament Serzh Sargsyan's nomination as premier four days after Sargsyan had left presidency on April 9, 2018 due to term limit, precipitating the most recent crisis.
Opposition Leader Calls Backers to Rally outside Parliament
Opposition lawmaker Nikol Pashinian, who had electrified his nation by leading a valiant political resistance against Serzh Sargsyan and his political henchmen, an envy unthinkable even few weeks ago, on April 30, 2018 urged his supporters to assemble in front of the parliament building to ensure against any parliamentary fraud to deprive him the post of premiership. The 105-member parliament is to vote for a premier on May 1, 2018, and only Pashinian is in the fray. Although 58 lawmakers belong to the ruling bloc, many of them are expected to cross over and vote for Nikol Pashinian, who has firm commitment from only 47 members from the opposition Elk, or Exit, alliance.
Parliament Rejects Pashinian, Precipitates Crisis
On May 1, 2018, Armenian parliament voted down, 55-45, the candidacy of Nikol Pashinian for prime minister, plunging the former Soviet Bloc nation into utter chaos and political crisis. Pashinian called for a nationwide strike.
Armenian Parliament Bows to Opposition Protest
After two days of intense protest that all but shut down the core of Yerevan and crippled the normal life across the former Soviet Republic, better sense has prevailed over the majority of the lawmakers and ruling majority on May 3, 2018 shifted its direction, and announced that it would support any candidate who could marshal one-third of lawmakers' support, making it easy for the popular opposition leader Nikol Pashinian to win the confidence vote. In a reciprocal gesture, Pashinian during the day urged his supporters to relent and return home.
Opposition Leader Elected as Premier
Bowing to popular uprising and political reality, Armenian parliament on May 8, 2018 voted 59-42 to elect opposition leader Nikol Pashinian as premier, bringing to an end to the days of uncertainty and chaos. No sooner had the news of election of Pashinian, who had electrified the nation by coalescing disparate groups of population under one political umbrella and thwarted the political manipulation of the ruling lawmakers to put term-limited former ruler Serzh Sargsyan as the country's premier, broken out than a crowd of 100,000 assembled at Yerevan's central square erupted in cheer and joy. Russian President Vladimir Putin, inaugurated a day earlier for his fourth term, congratulated Pashinian and expressed confidence in pushing forward "relations between our countries". Next week both leaders will have an opportunity for a face-to-face meeting at Sochi for Eurasian Economic Union, a Russian version of an alternative to European Union. The importance of Armenia to Kremlin is of significantly high stakes as Russia maintains two military bases in Armenia.
18 Killed in Fighting over Separatist Region
Armenia Observes Massacre Centenary
In a solemn observation at capital, Yerevan, tens of thousands of Armenians joined by world dignitaries attended the main event on April 24, 2015 at the Tsitsernakaberd Memorial Complex, country's main memorial where an eternal flame keeps burning to honor the massacre victims, to pay rich tribute to an estimated 1.5 million Armenians butchered 100 years ago at the hand of Ottoman Turkish empire. The dignitaries included Russian President Vladimir Putin and French President Francois Hollande, who were greeted warmly by their Armenian counterpart President Serzh Sargsyan. Many Armenians were disappointed that the US President Barack Obama didn't come to Yerevan, in part, not to disturb the delicate balance in diplomacy with Turkey which refused to call the event 100 years ago as genocide. White House called the event the "Centennial Commemoration of the Events of 1915", and sent Treasury Secretary Jack Lew to attend the commemoration.
Fight Ensues between Old Foes over a Contested Enclave
Fighting between Armenian and Azerbaijan troops erupted on April 2, 2016 in the contested Azerbaijani enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh, a prefecture whose autonomous and separatist governorate was backed and armed by Armenia. An internationally mediated cease-fire in 1994 ended almost daily skirmishes between the two former Soviet Republics. So, the complete breakdown of the fragile truce created another headache for the international community, including Russia that supplied weapons and aid to both nations. Residents of Nagorno-Karabakh have historic ties to Armenian people, and since 1994 truce, a sizable presence of Armenian troops helped provide the security and stability of the approximately 4,400 square mile separatist region. Russian President Vladimir Putin as well as other international leaders urged restraint on the both sides.
Fighting Continues for the Third Straight Day
A day after Azerbaijan announced a unilateral cease-fire, fighting continued in Nagorno-Karabakh for the third straight day on April 4, 2016 with no end in sight and hourly claims and counterclaims by the sides. Meanwhile, hectic diplomacy was in the full swing in world capitals from Washington to Moscow to prevent the region from sliding into anarchy for the first time since 1994 when a fragile truce took hold.
Cease-fire Reached
After three days (April 2-4, 2016) of worst fighting since a 1994 truce had ended decades-old skirmishes in Nagorno-Karabakh, Azerbaijan and the leaders of the separatist region agreed on a truce on April 5, 2016.
Peace Process Begins
After a Russia-brokered truce took into effect on April 5, 2016, negotiators from the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe met on April 9, 2016 at Yerevan to find a path forward for reconciliation and peace between the warring parties over Nagorno-Karabakh. The recent flare-up that had erupted on April 2, 2016 had killed at least 75 people on both sides, and even after the truce went into effect on April 5, 2016, both Armenia and Azerbaijan accused each other of truce violations. What had happened on April 2, 2016 in Nagorno-Karabakh was the worst escalation since a 1994 truce ended the last bout of fighting. After seeing the conflict almost spiraling out of control, Russia, US and France pushed and put together the framework for a truce under the auspices of OSCE, and the truce finally went into effect on April 5, 2016. After the Yerevan meeting on April 9, 2016, Russian ambassador to OSCE Igor Popov said that the civilian and military leadership from both sides had "demonstrated a readiness to preserve truce". Azerbaijan's President Ilham Aliyev echoed the sentiment on April 9, 2016 although saying clearly that his government would not give up any territory.
101st Anniversary of the Start of Genocide Marked
About 15,000 demonstrators took part a candle-light march at Yerevan on April 23, 2016, on the eve of April 24, 1915, launch of what historians called one of the worst genocide in which approximately 1.5 million Armenians were killed by the then-Ottoman Empire. However, the descendant state of Ottoman Empire, the modern day Turkey, refused to recognize the killings as genocide.
Burundi Woman Receives Prize from Clooney
On the 101st anniversary of the launch of history's one of worst genocide in which 1.5 million Armenians were butchered by Ottoman Empire, actor George Clooney on April 24, 2016 awarded the first Aurora Prize to a Burundian woman for her work to uplift and advance humanitarian cause. The $1.1 million was awarded to Ms. Marguerite Barankitse at Yerevan.
************************ POPE'S VISIT TO ARMENIA *****************************
Pope Calls World War I Killings of Armenians a "Genocide"
Pope Francis, never shy of speaking his mind, on June 24, 2016 called out the massacre of Armenians a century ago as the first "genocide" of the 20th century, and condemned the inaction of the international community "in this case and in the other two" that followed, referring to Nazism and Stalinism. Although the initial draft issued by the Vatican didn't include the word "genocide" in an effort not to antagonize Turkey, the word eventually found its way to the papal speech delivered on June 24, 2016 at the presidential palace in Yerevan to a host of dignitaries, including Armenian President Serzh Sargyan, Armenian political and religious leaders. The occasion reflects Pope Francis' unwavering stance to speak his mind even on topics that can stir the political hornet's nest.
************************ POPE'S VISIT TO ARMENIA *****************************
Long-time Ruler Forced to Resign as the Former Soviet Republic Teeters on the Brink
An 11-day popular protest and sit-in outside the parliament stirred Yerevan's power balance, forcing the just-approved premier, Serzh Sargsyan, 63, to resign on April 23, 2018. The political unraveling began in March 2018 as the 10-year presidential term limit eliminated the possibility for President Sargsyan from seeking re-election. However, instead of retiring from high-profile public life, Serzh Sargsyan played the game that Russian President Vladimir Putin once played by maneuvering the system as the Russian strongman had hit his own term limit to become the premier of the nation and, after five years, ascending to the coveted post of presidency. On April 13, 2018, ruling party lawmakers muscled through the parliament Serzh Sargsyan's nomination as premier four days after Sargsyan had left presidency on April 9, 2018 due to term limit, precipitating the most recent crisis.
Opposition Leader Calls Backers to Rally outside Parliament
Opposition lawmaker Nikol Pashinian, who had electrified his nation by leading a valiant political resistance against Serzh Sargsyan and his political henchmen, an envy unthinkable even few weeks ago, on April 30, 2018 urged his supporters to assemble in front of the parliament building to ensure against any parliamentary fraud to deprive him the post of premiership. The 105-member parliament is to vote for a premier on May 1, 2018, and only Pashinian is in the fray. Although 58 lawmakers belong to the ruling bloc, many of them are expected to cross over and vote for Nikol Pashinian, who has firm commitment from only 47 members from the opposition Elk, or Exit, alliance.
Parliament Rejects Pashinian, Precipitates Crisis
On May 1, 2018, Armenian parliament voted down, 55-45, the candidacy of Nikol Pashinian for prime minister, plunging the former Soviet Bloc nation into utter chaos and political crisis. Pashinian called for a nationwide strike.
Armenian Parliament Bows to Opposition Protest
After two days of intense protest that all but shut down the core of Yerevan and crippled the normal life across the former Soviet Republic, better sense has prevailed over the majority of the lawmakers and ruling majority on May 3, 2018 shifted its direction, and announced that it would support any candidate who could marshal one-third of lawmakers' support, making it easy for the popular opposition leader Nikol Pashinian to win the confidence vote. In a reciprocal gesture, Pashinian during the day urged his supporters to relent and return home.
Opposition Leader Elected as Premier
Bowing to popular uprising and political reality, Armenian parliament on May 8, 2018 voted 59-42 to elect opposition leader Nikol Pashinian as premier, bringing to an end to the days of uncertainty and chaos. No sooner had the news of election of Pashinian, who had electrified the nation by coalescing disparate groups of population under one political umbrella and thwarted the political manipulation of the ruling lawmakers to put term-limited former ruler Serzh Sargsyan as the country's premier, broken out than a crowd of 100,000 assembled at Yerevan's central square erupted in cheer and joy. Russian President Vladimir Putin, inaugurated a day earlier for his fourth term, congratulated Pashinian and expressed confidence in pushing forward "relations between our countries". Next week both leaders will have an opportunity for a face-to-face meeting at Sochi for Eurasian Economic Union, a Russian version of an alternative to European Union. The importance of Armenia to Kremlin is of significantly high stakes as Russia maintains two military bases in Armenia.
18 Killed in Fighting over Separatist Region
Fighting
between Armenian and Azerbaijani forces erupted on September 27, 2020
over the separatist region of Nagorno-Karabakh, a mountainous region landlocked
within Azerbaijan, but its ethnic Armenian leaders declared independence in
1991. At least 16 soldiers on both sides were killed as well as two civilians. Azerbaijani
President Ilham Aliyev declared martial law in parts of the country and
imposed curfew in major cities. Albanian Prime Minister Edi Rama,
current chairperson of OSCE, asked Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian
and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev to stop fighting. OSCE is mediating often
halting peace talks between the two former Soviet Republics.
Armenian-Azerbaijani
Clashes Expand beyond Enclave
The
latest fighting that had erupted on September 27, 2020 between Armenian
and Azerbaijani troops over self-declared independent Nagorno-Karabakh
had taken a turn for worse on October 4, 2020 as the scope of fighting
area had expanded far beyond the disputed enclave and reached some of the
populated cities in Azerbaijan such as Ganja and Mingachevir. An
aide to Azerbaijani President Ilkham Aliyev accused Armenia of striking
Ganja and Mingacevir with missiles, targeting civilians, a charge refuted by
Armenia. Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian blamed Turkey for
fomenting the crisis and accused Ankara of direct involvement, saying openly
days ago that “a cease-fire can be established only if Turkey is removed from
the South Caucuses”. The leader of Nagorno-Karabakh
region, Arayik Harutyunian, acknowledged on October 4, 2020 that his
forces were compelled to launch strikes against military targets in Ganja after
Nagorno-Karabakh region ‘s capital, Stepanakert, came under
attack, with the civilian population at risk of seriously harmed., but denied
any role behind attack against Mingachevir. Nagorno-Karabakh’s ethnic
Armenians declared unilateral independence in 1991, three months before
the collapse of Soviet Union. A full-scale war broke out in 1992, and at
least 30,000 people were killed in the following two years of war in
which Azerbaijani and Armenian forces had fought a bloody battle. When the war
ended in 1994 with a fragile cease-fire, Armenian forces not only were
able to hold grounds on Nagorno-Karabakh, they had expanded the control beyond
the enclave’s boundary and seized Jabrayil, an Azerbaijani town outside Nagorno-Karabakh.
Azerbaijan claimed to have captured Jabrayil on October 4, 2020, only to
be refuted by opposing sides.
On
the diplomatic front, Russia, France and the U.S., co-chairs of the OSCE
Minsk Group, a group set up by the Organization for Security and
Cooperation in Europe in 1992 to resolve the conflict, issued a statement
on October 1, 2020, calling for “resuming substantive negotiations”
under the “auspices of OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs”. Nagorno-Karabakh officials
said that nearly 200 of their soldiers were killed in the current round of fighting
along with 18 civilians killed and more than 90 wounded. Azerbaijani officials
said that 24 civilians had been killed and 111 injured so far since the latest
round of fighting erupted on September 27, 2020.
Putin
Mediates Peace between Armenia, Azerbaijan
Russian
President Vladimir Putin on late October 8, 2020 stepped up his role to mediate between two
former Soviet Republics as intense battle was ensuing over a separatist region,
Nagorno-Karabakh, within Azerbaijan. Putin had held separate talks with Armenian
Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, invited
both nations to send representatives to Moscow for further negotiation and
proposed for a cease-fire with immediate effect. By late afternoon on October
9, 2020, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov was greeting his
counterparts from the two Caucasus nations at the Russian Foreign Ministry as
intense shelling was going on and smoke billowing over Stepanakert. Since
the latest round of fighting began on September 27, 2020, at least 376
service personnel of Nagorno-Karabakh were killed. Azerbaijan didn’t
provide any details of casualties on its side.
Truce Fails to Hold as Armenia, Azerbaijan Trade Fires, Missiles
After
a straight 10-hour talk with his counterparts from Armenia and Azerbaijan, Russian
Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov on late October 9, 2020 announced a
cease-fire that would undergo into effect at local noon time on October 10,
2020. The truce is meant to pave for further discussions aimed at reaching
a peaceful solution to a vexing issue that had been a sore to regional
stability over the past three decades. However, Armenia and Azerbaijan lobbed
accusations that the other side was in violation of truce and attacked villages
and towns in each other’s territories.
Armenia,
Azerbaijan Trade Accusation
World
may see the fate of Russia-brokered cease-fire in Nagorno-Karabakh, with
warring parties in open defiance of the truce, shelling each other’s positions
at will, thus putting civilians’ lives at great peril, and to some extent,
expanding the war zone. On October 16, 2020, Azerbaijan accused Armenia
of expanding its aggression in the territory inside Azerbaijan far
beyond Nagorno-Karabakh, an allegation that Yerevan rejected. On the
other hand, Armenia accused Baku of carrying out execution of two
its prisoners that drew a sharp response from Azerbaijan as nothing but
provocation.
Armenia,
Azerbaijan Agree to Honor Cease-fire
After
the October 9, 2020, cease-fire over Nagorno-Karabakh unraveled
the moment it went into effect, the civilian population both in Azerbaijan and
Nagorno-Karabakh came under severe artillery and shelling attacks. The
fighting continued unabated throughout the week. On October 17, 2020,
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov called his counterparts from both
the Southern Caucuses nations, and implored them to observing the October 9,
2020, truce with immediate effect. Azerbaijan and Armenia said afterward that
they would give another try to achieve a cease-fire. Overnight a Soviet-made
Scud missile hit the second-largest city of Azerbaijan, Ganja, killing 13
civilians and wounding more than 50, Azerbaijani authorities said on October
17, 2020. Armenia denied any role behind the attack, but the authorities in
Stepanakert, capital of Nagorno-Karabakh, implored that genuine
military targets in Ganja had been hit without saying who was behind the
attack.
Armenian
Leader Asks Citizens to Join Military to Fight against Azerbaijan
Armenian
Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian on October 21, 2020 asked the country’s
citizens to “take up arms and defend the Motherland” as the cease-fire would
not work as Azerbaijan was intent on fighting. In a Facebook video, he
also asked the local mayors to organize volunteer recruitment events for
joining the army. Premier’s bellicose message came as fighting raged on and two
days before the foreign ministers of the South Caucuses neighbors were to meet
with U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo at Washington.
Third
Cease-fire Unravels within Hours; Hospital Hit
After
Mike Pompeo met his counterparts from Armenia and Azerbaijan
at Washington D.C. on October 24, 2020, there was hope that the
U.S.-mediated cease-fire, third such truce, would last long enough to begin a
sustainable peace negotiation. Within hours of the cease-fire announcement in
the Washington D.C., the truce faltered in the South Caucuses. On October
28, 2020, things turned worse as missiles hit the capital of Nagorno-Karabakh,
Stepanakert, including a maternity hospital. Surprisingly, there was no
casualties. Azerbaijan denied that it was behind the hospital attack, and accused
Armenia of attacking an Azerbaijani town, Barda, that had killed more
than 20 people. Armenia denied that it had any role behind Barda assault.
Another
Cease-fire Agreement Signed; It May Stand a Chance to Succeed
After
a series of truces failed to hold even for hours, a last-ditch effort was
launched by Russia to end the fighting between Armenia and Azerbaijan,
and a truce—apparently holding the most promise among all the cease-fire
agreements signed so far—was signed in the early hours of November 10, 2020.
Under this new truce, Armenia will cede many of the areas under its control
outside Nagorno-Karabakh boundaries to Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan made gains
in capturing a key town, Shushi, outside the Karabakh region. Armenia
will also give up eastern district of Agdam outside Nagorno-Karabakh
region. A third slice of region on the western side of Nagorno-Karabakh
that links the enclave with Armenia via road will be handed over to Azerbaijan
too. However, Russian forces will oversee the security of the transport
corridor through Lachin Region. The cease-fire agreement also calls for
deployment of about 1,960 Russian troops in the region to enforce the
cease-fire and guard the road link between Nagorno-Karabakh and Armenia through
Lachin Region. Another benefit of this cease-fire agreement to Baku is
that it will have more access to its western exclave of Nakhchivan—surrounded
by Armenia, Iran and Turkey—by constructing a transportation corridor through
Armenia. Hours before the agreement was signed, Azerbaijani troops on November
9, 2020 shot down a Russian helicopter flying over Armenia near the border
with Nakhchivan, killing two Armenian troops. In the coming days,
Armenian government led by Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian is sure to
face calls for its resignation as Armenia seems to have ceded lot of political
and battlefront grounds in the latest truce.
Many
Ethnic Armenians Fleeing their Burning Homes in Areas to be Ceded to Azerbaijan
As
the deadline of 12:01 AM November 15, 2020 approaches fast for ceding
control over several outlying areas, which have been under Armenian control
since 1994, to Azerbaijan, thousands of ethnic Armenians are in mad rush to
salvage whatever they can from their dwellings of several decades, set the
homes ablaze so that Azeris may not occupy their homes intact and hit the road
toward Armenia for a future and destination of unknowns. The latest truce
prodded by Russia came two days after Azerbaijan seized Shushi, one of
the prime assets outside the Nagorno-Karabakh boundaries and an
emotional link to Azerbaijani pride. Many in Armenia are questioning the Russian
motive over the hastily arranged November 10, 2020, cease-fire as they
have banked on Kremlin to defend the territorial integrity of areas even
outside Nagorno-Karabakh region which have been long under Armenian control and
many ethnic Armenians have come to consider the areas as their home.
Azerbaijani
Soldiers, Tanks Enter the Forlorn City of Agdam
Azerbaijani
forces and military convoy returned to Agdam and surrounding areas in
the province of same name on November 20, 2020, marking a significant
military victory for Azerbaijan and a setback for Armenia. Agdam and
surrounding areas, which are switching to Azerbaijani control as part of the November
10, 2020, cease-fire brokered by Kremlin, though outside Nagorno-Karabakh,
have been ruled by Armenian proxies after the war has ended between two
Southern Caucusus ex-Soviet Republics in 1994. The military victory
in Agdam that paved the way for eventual control of the city and
surrounding areas by Azerbaijan as part of November 10, 2020, truce
created political furor and anti-government demonstrations in Yerevan.
In a televised address to the nation, Azerbaijan’s president, Ilham Aliyev,
rejoicingly announced that November 20, 2020 was the day of “liberation
of Agdam”. The return of Azerbaijani troops to take control of Agdam, first of
a series of such handovers, marked a strategic victory for Baku.
Azerbaijan
Completes Taking over the Territories as part of Russia-brokered Truce
On December
1, 2020, as per the plan enshrined in the Moscow-backed November 10,
2020, truce between Armenia and Azerbaijan, Baku has completed a sweep of
bringing areas outside the Nagorno-Karabakh region, hitherto under the Armenian
control, into its own, thus fulfilling a long-cherished dream of long-time President
Ilham Aliyev.
Biden Labels Killings of Armenians as Genocide
On the day of 106th anniversary of beginning of one of the most gruesome massacres in the history, U.S. President Joe Biden on April 24, 2021 labeled the killings of almost 1.5 million Armenians as a "genocide". Biden's predecessors resisted to give the label to one of the most important allies of the USA, but Joe Biden balked that reluctance as bilateral relationship between Recep Tayyip Erdogan administration and the USA had soured in recent years because of Ankara's weapons purchase from Russia and NATO member nation's support of al-Qaeda-linked rebel groups in Syria.
The campaign of annihilation of Armenians happened at the tail end of Ottoman Empire as the ill-fated Russian invasion put a spotlight on the Armenian communities within the Ottoman Empire as many in Ottoman authorities believed that Armenian Christians were working against the Ottoman interests. The campaign against the Armenian communities began on April 24, 1915.
Turkey Summons U.S. Ambassador to Lodge Protest against "Genocide" Designation
Hours after President Joe Biden issued a proclamation to describe the deportation, massacres and death marches that had happened in the twilight of Ottoman Empire beginning on April 24, 1915 and killed 1.5 million Ottoman Armenians as a "genocide", Turkish Foreign Ministry on late April 24, 2021 summoned the U.S. Ambassador David Satterfield. Turkish Deputy Foreign Minister Sedat Onal met with the ambassador late night on April 24, 2021 to lodge a strong protest. Turkish Foreign Ministry subsequently issued a statement, saying that the U.S. action "has hurt the Turkish people, opening a wound that's hard to fix in our relations".
Worst
Crisis since 2020 War after Armenia, Azerbaijan Clash
The
worst border clash since last year’s bloody war between Azerbaijan’s and
Armenian troops occurred on November 16, 2021 that had left six
Armenian troops dead. 32 Armenian troops were taken hostage. On the
other hand, seven Azerbaijanese troops were killed too. However, both the former
Soviet Republics in the Caucasus acted quickly to douse the flame of antagonism
lest it became a much larger conflagration. On November 23, 2021, Armenian
Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian said that Armenia and Azerbaijan had
established a hotline between their respective defense ministries to avoid any
escalation.
Armenia, Azerbaijan Reach Truce
After two days (September 13-14, 2022) of border clashes that had
killed at least 155 people on both sides, Armenian national security
council secretary Armen Grigoryan on September 14, 2022 announced in televised
remarks that two former Soviet republics had agreed to a cease-fire. Azerbaijani
confirmation is yet to be obtained, but regional observers are confident that a
truce has been reached between Baku and Yerevan to stop the continuing bloodshed.
*************************** NAGORNO-KARABAKH
Separatists Routed in the Enclave, Ethnic Armenians Flee
Last week, Azerbaijani military routed the forces supporting and
propping up the separatist administration in Nagorno-Karabakh, according
to The Associated Press which had reported on this 24-hour unprecedented
military sweep and The Dallas Morning News published an article on this
geopolitical event on September 26, 2023. The intensity of Azerbaijani
offensive brought the entire enclave under Baku’s control for the first time
since the fall of Soviet Union. Thousands of ethnic Armenians are reported to
be fleeing Nagorno-Karabakh as the fear of reprisal grows.
As hundreds of mostly ethnic Armenian motorists were waiting at a fuel
depot in the enclave’s capital, Stepanakert, on September 25, 2023, a
large explosion rocked the area, injuring more than 200 people. Several injured
people are in critical state, according to the enclave’s human-rights ombudsman,
Gegham Stepanyan, who wrote on the explosion on the social media platform
X. Hours before the explosion, the second round of talks was held between
ethnic Armenian leaders and Azerbaijani officials at Khojaly, just north
of Stepanakert. Russian peacekeepers are helping ethnic Armenians to
evacuate the enclave.
At least 20 Killed in Fuel Storage Blast
Nagorno-Karabakh’s presidential aide, David Babayan, on September 26, 2023
gave a grim picture of the blast at a fuel storage facility in Stepanakert,
capital of the separatist enclave. The blast on late September 25, 2023
killed 20 people and wounded close to 200. The blast occurred, according
to multitude of reports, because of negligence. The death toll and injuries
were so high because people were in a mad rush to flee to Armenia. At least
28,000 people had already fled to Armenia, fearing reprisal by Azerbaijanians
as separatist forces had been quashed by Baku.
Former Separatist Leader Detained
Azerbaijan launched a lightning-paced military campaign on September
19, 2023 that had vanquished the ethnic Armenian resistance and forced the
authorities at Stepanakert to lay down arms and begin talks with Baku
for an eventual reintegration. Since that swift 24-hour military campaign on September
19, 2023, more than 28,000 ethnic Armenians fled to Armenia fearing reprisal.
On September 27, 2023, border guards detained former leader of the
secessionist administration as Ruben Vardanyan tried to flee to Armenia.
Ruben Vardanyan, a billionaire who had made his fortune in Russia where
he owned an investment bank, was taken to Baku later in the day. Vardanyan
moved to Nagorno-Karabakh in 2022 to head the regional government. His
detention is sure to complicate an already complex and confusing situation.
Separatist Admin Self-Dissolves by Yearend
The president of the autonomous region of Nagorno-Karabakh on
September 28, 2023 issued a decree to dissolve the separatist
administration by the end of 2023. The decree signed by President Samvel
Shakramanyan cited an agreement reached on September 20, 2023 that
had pledged “free, voluntary and unhindered movement” of Nagorno-Karabakh
residents to Armenia. Armenian authorities said on September 28, 2023
that since a lightning Azerbaijani sweep led to disarmament of separatist
forces, at least 78,000 people had sought shelters in Armenia. Nagorno-Karabakh
had circa 120,000 people before the September 19, 2023, lightning campaign
by Azerbaijani forces that had brought the mountainous enclave under Baku’s
control in about 24 hours. The influx of people since then remained unabated.
*************************** NAGORNO-KARABAKH
AZERBAIJAN
Fight Ensues between Old Foes over a Contested Enclave
Fighting between Armenian and Azerbaijan troops erupted on April 2, 2016 in the contested Azerbaijani enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh, a prefecture whose autonomous and separatist governorate was backed and armed by Armenia. An internationally mediated cease-fire in 1994 ended almost daily skirmishes between the two former Soviet Republics. So, the complete breakdown of the fragile truce created another headache for the international community, including Russia that supplied weapons and aid to both nations. Residents of Nagorno-Karabakh have historic ties to Armenian people, and since 1994 truce, a sizable presence of Armenian troops helped provide the security and stability of the approximately 4,400 square mile separatist region. Russian President Vladimir Putin as well as other international leaders urged restraint on the both sides.
Fighting Continues for the Third Straight Day
A day after Azerbaijan announced a unilateral cease-fire, fighting continued in Nagorno-Karabakh for the third straight day on April 4, 2016 with no end in sight and hourly claims and counterclaims by the sides. Meanwhile, hectic diplomacy was in the full swing in world capitals from Washington to Moscow to prevent the region from sliding into anarchy for the first time since 1994 when a fragile truce took hold.
Cease-fire Reached
After three days (April 2-4, 2016) of worst fighting since a 1994 truce had ended decades-old skirmishes in Nagorno-Karabakh, Azerbaijan and the leaders of the separatist region agreed on a truce on April 5, 2016.
Peace Process Begins
After a Russia-brokered truce took into effect on April 5, 2016, negotiators from the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe met on April 9, 2016 at Yerevan to find a path forward for reconciliation and peace between the warring parties over Nagorno-Karabakh. The recent flare-up that had erupted on April 2, 2016 had killed at least 75 people on both sides, and even after the truce went into effect on April 5, 2016, both Armenia and Azerbaijan accused each other of truce violations. What had happened on April 2, 2016 in Nagorno-Karabakh was the worst escalation since a 1994 truce ended the last bout of fighting. After seeing the conflict almost spiraling out of control, Russia, US and France pushed and put together the framework for a truce under the auspices of OSCE, and the truce finally went into effect on April 5, 2016. After the Yerevan meeting on April 9, 2016, Russian ambassador to OSCE Igor Popov said that the civilian and military leadership from both sides had "demonstrated a readiness to preserve truce". Azerbaijan's President Ilham Aliyev echoed the sentiment on April 9, 2016 although saying clearly that his government would not give up any territory.
Azerbaijan's President Nominates Wife as a Chosen Successor
Azerbaijan's President Ilham Aliyev, 55, on February 21, 2017 named his wife Mehriban Aliyev, 52, as the First Vice President of the country, setting her in the line of ascension to power. Under a September 2016 referendum on constitutional amendment, two positions of VP were created, with the First V.P. in the line of succession. Under the constitutional amendment, the presidential term had been extended too from five years to seven years. Illham became president after his father, who was the chief of the Communist Party during Soviet regime and ruled the country with an iron fist since the break-up, had passed away in 2003.
AZERBAIJAN
Fight Ensues between Old Foes over a Contested Enclave
Fighting between Armenian and Azerbaijan troops erupted on April 2, 2016 in the contested Azerbaijani enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh, a prefecture whose autonomous and separatist governorate was backed and armed by Armenia. An internationally mediated cease-fire in 1994 ended almost daily skirmishes between the two former Soviet Republics. So, the complete breakdown of the fragile truce created another headache for the international community, including Russia that supplied weapons and aid to both nations. Residents of Nagorno-Karabakh have historic ties to Armenian people, and since 1994 truce, a sizable presence of Armenian troops helped provide the security and stability of the approximately 4,400 square mile separatist region. Russian President Vladimir Putin as well as other international leaders urged restraint on the both sides.
Fighting Continues for the Third Straight Day
A day after Azerbaijan announced a unilateral cease-fire, fighting continued in Nagorno-Karabakh for the third straight day on April 4, 2016 with no end in sight and hourly claims and counterclaims by the sides. Meanwhile, hectic diplomacy was in the full swing in world capitals from Washington to Moscow to prevent the region from sliding into anarchy for the first time since 1994 when a fragile truce took hold.
Cease-fire Reached
After three days (April 2-4, 2016) of worst fighting since a 1994 truce had ended decades-old skirmishes in Nagorno-Karabakh, Azerbaijan and the leaders of the separatist region agreed on a truce on April 5, 2016.
Peace Process Begins
After a Russia-brokered truce took into effect on April 5, 2016, negotiators from the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe met on April 9, 2016 at Yerevan to find a path forward for reconciliation and peace between the warring parties over Nagorno-Karabakh. The recent flare-up that had erupted on April 2, 2016 had killed at least 75 people on both sides, and even after the truce went into effect on April 5, 2016, both Armenia and Azerbaijan accused each other of truce violations. What had happened on April 2, 2016 in Nagorno-Karabakh was the worst escalation since a 1994 truce ended the last bout of fighting. After seeing the conflict almost spiraling out of control, Russia, US and France pushed and put together the framework for a truce under the auspices of OSCE, and the truce finally went into effect on April 5, 2016. After the Yerevan meeting on April 9, 2016, Russian ambassador to OSCE Igor Popov said that the civilian and military leadership from both sides had "demonstrated a readiness to preserve truce". Azerbaijan's President Ilham Aliyev echoed the sentiment on April 9, 2016 although saying clearly that his government would not give up any territory.
Azerbaijan's President Nominates Wife as a Chosen Successor
Azerbaijan's President Ilham Aliyev, 55, on February 21, 2017 named his wife Mehriban Aliyev, 52, as the First Vice President of the country, setting her in the line of ascension to power. Under a September 2016 referendum on constitutional amendment, two positions of VP were created, with the First V.P. in the line of succession. Under the constitutional amendment, the presidential term had been extended too from five years to seven years. Illham became president after his father, who was the chief of the Communist Party during Soviet regime and ruled the country with an iron fist since the break-up, had passed away in 2003.
Strongman Poised to Win another 7-year Term
Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev seems to be receiving 93.9% of the votes
cast in the February 7, 2024, presidential poll. He is facing six politically
insignificant challengers who have all praised his handling and leadership after
the conquest of Nagorno-Karabakh. Ilham Aliyev, who took over the
helms of the energy-rich Caspian nation in 2003 after his father Heyder
Aliyev’s death, announced the presidential election 14 months earlier on
the ground that the residents of Nagorno-Karabakh, fully brought under Baku’s
control in September 2023, would participate in the election. Ilham Aliyev
carried out a constitutional reform in 2016 that extended the presidential term
from five to seven years and created the office of vice presidency. Aliyev eventually
handed over the vice presidency to his wife, Mehriban Alieva. In the
2018 presidential poll, which was also called early, Ilham Aliyev won a
whopping 86% of the vote. The Organization for Security and Cooperation in
Europe viewed all the previous elections with doubt and question marks. The
Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe, or PACE, last month refused
to provide a stamp of approval for electoral credentials in the upcoming
presidential poll, inviting an angry riposte from Baku threatening to pull Azerbaijan
from the Council of Europe and the European Court of Human Rights.
BELARUS
Unprecedented Demonstrations Sweep Belarus
A law, now suspended, requiring unemployed to register with the government's labor exchange had become a magnet for protest for civil society and journalists and expanded to a broader movement calling for the resignation of authoritarian President Alexander Lukashenko, at the helm of affairs since 1994. The latest of the demonstrations took place on March 12, 2017 at four cities--Orsha, Babruysk, Brest and Rahachow--and authorities made dozens of arrests.
Presidents of Belarus, Russia Meet to Hash out Differences
Presidents of two strong allies of former Soviet Bloc Republics met at Minsk on December 7, 2019 amid more than 1,000 protesters taking to streets to decry Russia's domination in Belarus policymaking. Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko met with Vladimir Putin for more than five hours to discuss a range of issues, including recent difference over prices of oil and gas imports from Russia. The December 7, 2019, Lukashenko-Putin summit at Minsk touched on the very foundation of solidifying bonds between the two nations, a landmark 1997 union agreement that had brought the nations closer short of forming a single nation.
Belarus President Complains of Russian Design to "Dissolve" Belarus
Belarussian President Alexander Lukashenko, addressing workers at a paper mill in east of the country on January 24, 2020, vowed not to succumb to Russian pressure to "dissolve Belarus" in the arms of "brotherly Russia". Russia has cut off supply of cheap oil to Belarus.
Lukashenko Wins "Sham" Election
Belarussian President Alexander Lukashenko solidified his iron-clad grip on power and extended his 26-year rule by another five years after winning August 9, 2020, presidential election that many in the opposition and international observers called sham.
Woman Protesters Form Human Chain
Protesters held fourth day of daily demonstrations on August 12, 2020 at Minsk and other cities in Belarus for alleged vote fraud that had culminated in President Alexander Lukashenko coasting to victory with an unbelievable 80 percent of the vote vs. his key challenger getting only 10 percent vote and extending his 26-year rule and subsequent harsh crackdown on peaceful protesters. On August 12, 2020, female protesters wore whites and formed a human chain against August 9, 2020, alleged election fraud. Since the night of election, protesters are out on the streets in thousands, and security forces have used batons, truncheons, rubber bullets and water cannons to disperse mostly peaceful protesters.
Thousands Protest for the Fifth Straight Day
Thousands of women continued their second day of forming human chains in various parts of Minsk on August 13, 2020, and now, country's workers had joined the protest on the fifth day of nationwide demonstration since a disputed election on August 9, 2020 had resulted in President Alexander Lukashenko garnering 80 percent of the vote and extending his 26-year iron-clad rule. Many of the women who had formed the human chains have their sons, daughters, husbands, or parents hauled by nation's security crackdown with arrests numbering as high as 7,000. At least one protester was reported killed, and that tragic incident, with very little details, happened on August 10, 2020.
20,000 Rally against Lukashenko as Government Tries to De-escalate Situation
Protests simmered across the country for the sixth consecutive day on August 14, 2020 as a 20,000-something-strong crowd rallied at the central square in Belarussian capital of Minsk. Factory workers marched through the capital too, demanding the ouster of Alexander Lukashenko. Meanwhile, the authoritarian regime has released 2,000 of 7,000 protesters arrested in recent days.
Media Outlets Blocked; Another Major Rally Called
Almost after two weeks of huge rallies, the regime of President Alexander Lukashenko cracked down heavily on the country's independent media. The Belarusian Association of Journalists on August 22, 2020 reported that many of the media outlets, including the U.S-funded Radio Liberty and a Polish-funded satellite TV station, Belsat, had been shut down earlier in the day. Independent newspapers Narodnaya Volya and Komsomolskaya Pravda were not printed too during the day. President Alexander Lukashenko's main electoral challenger, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, who had fled the nation to Lithuania hours after August 9, 2020, presidential election in anticipation of a possible arrest on August 22, 2020 called in a video message for another Sunday massive rally for August 23, 2020. On August 16, 2020, a rally of strong-200,000 Belarusians flooded the streets of Minsk. A point in contrast was a parallel rally that had been addressed by President Lukashenko, and only about tens of thousands joined in that pro-government rally.
Massive Rally Held to Demand Lukashenko's Ouster; Lithuanians Form Human Chain
A week after August 16, 2020, huge demonstration, another 200,000-plus-size demonstration of overflow crowd was held at Minsk's Independence Square on August 23, 2020. Later many demonstrators marched toward the presidential palace where they had met a massive dragnet of state security apparatus. President Alexander Lukashenko, who displays a charismatic and machismo-style air, landed on the presidential ground in a helicopter, wearing a bullet-proof vest and waving a Kalashnikov-style automatic rifle, as hundreds of thousands of protesters were demanding his resignation.
In the neighboring Lithuania, tens of thousands of people on August 23, 2020 joined to form a massive human chain, spanning a 20-mile-stretch from the capital Vilnius to the border, dubbed as the Freedom Way, to demand freedom of their neighbors in Belarus. In many ways, its a reminder of August 23, 1989, Baltic Way, another human chain across the three Baltic states of Lithuania, Estonia and Latvia by more than a million people, demanding the unshackling of Soviet bondage. Drawing the parallel, Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda advocated freedom and fair election for "our Belarusian brothers".
Lukashenko Ramps up Pressure on Activists
In order to generate scare, President Alexander Lukashenko regime had decided to crank up pressure on the protest movement. On August 25, 2020, two members of Coordination Council, formed last week as a forum to facilitate transition to an interim government from the Lukashenko government, were handed 10-day sentence by Minsk courts. Pressure is also on by arresting select leaders of the protest movement and driving wedge in the movement itself.
Lukashenko Regime Cracks down on Journalists
President Alexander Lukashenko regime on August 29, 2020 took several action to muzzle the independent voice and portrayal of what's been happening in Belarus over the past three weeks by deporting many foreign correspondents and taking away press credentials of many other independent journalists. The Associated Press condemned the deportation of two of its Russia-based journalists and revoking credentials of many of its Belarusian correspondents. The Belarusian Association of Journalists said during the day that 17 other journalists were targeted to revoke the accreditation.
Massive Rally on the Third Sunday in a Row
A massive rally was held again on August 30, 2020 at Minsk to demand the resignation of Alexander Lukashenko who opposition and international observers alleged had rigged the August 9, 2020, presidential poll and received a whopping 80 percent vote, defeating Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, a school teacher and wife of a dissident blogger. After the polls were closed, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya had fled Belarus for Lithuania to avoid any possible arrest as patterns had shown that Lukashenko often used arrest to silence his critic. On August 30, 2020, the estimate crowd size was 100,000, and scores walked toward the presidential palace after finding the capital's Independence Square barricaded by law enforcement personnel.
Sunday (August 30, 2020) was also Alexander Lukashenko's birthday, and Russian President Vladimir Putin was reported to have called him to wish and congratulate on his election win. Stepping in the political tumult of her nation, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya said from Vilnius that she wished Lukashenko too, and good thing for him on his birthday was "to listen to the voice of people and go away".
After Another Massive Sunday Protest, One Opposition Leader Goes Missing
Another Sunday, another strong 100,000-plus show of protest against Alexander Lukashenko. After September 6, 2020, massive rally, one of the members of the Coordination Council, formed days ago to talk to the government to facilitate transitioning to an interim administration, was reported missing on September 7, 2020. Maria Kolesnikova's disappearance was a gut punch to Belarusians as it showed a desperation on behalf of the Lukashenko regime not to spare anything to save his presidency.
Four Other Coordination Council Members Whisked away
The same day opposition leader Maria Kolesnikova was taken by masked security personnel, two other members Coordination Council were whisked away too by unknown state security officers. Anton Radniankou and Ivan Krautsou, executive secretary of the council, were taken away separately by state security personnel on September 7, 2020. On September 9, 2020, two lawyers, Maksim Znak and Ilya Saley, part of the Coordination Council Presidium, were taken from their homes by unknown masked people. Now, only the Nobel laureate Svetlana Alexievich is the only Coordination Council Presidium member in the country free.
10,000 Women Demonstrate against Pro-Russia Regime
Two days before President Alexander Lukashenko is to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin, who has offered to send troops across the border if daily demonstrations turn violent, at Black Sea resort of Sochi, approximately 10,000 women have marched through the capital, Minsk, on September 12, 2020, banging pots and pans and demanding the beleaguered Belarusian president resign. Many of the demonstrators were carrying the portraits of Maria Kolesnikova, who had been detained on September 7, 2020 and reported being transported to the border to expel her when she was seen tearing up her passport. Since then Maria Kolesnikova has been at the state security custody.
BELARUS
Unprecedented Demonstrations Sweep Belarus
A law, now suspended, requiring unemployed to register with the government's labor exchange had become a magnet for protest for civil society and journalists and expanded to a broader movement calling for the resignation of authoritarian President Alexander Lukashenko, at the helm of affairs since 1994. The latest of the demonstrations took place on March 12, 2017 at four cities--Orsha, Babruysk, Brest and Rahachow--and authorities made dozens of arrests.
Presidents of Belarus, Russia Meet to Hash out Differences
Presidents of two strong allies of former Soviet Bloc Republics met at Minsk on December 7, 2019 amid more than 1,000 protesters taking to streets to decry Russia's domination in Belarus policymaking. Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko met with Vladimir Putin for more than five hours to discuss a range of issues, including recent difference over prices of oil and gas imports from Russia. The December 7, 2019, Lukashenko-Putin summit at Minsk touched on the very foundation of solidifying bonds between the two nations, a landmark 1997 union agreement that had brought the nations closer short of forming a single nation.
Belarus President Complains of Russian Design to "Dissolve" Belarus
Belarussian President Alexander Lukashenko, addressing workers at a paper mill in east of the country on January 24, 2020, vowed not to succumb to Russian pressure to "dissolve Belarus" in the arms of "brotherly Russia". Russia has cut off supply of cheap oil to Belarus.
Lukashenko Wins "Sham" Election
Belarussian President Alexander Lukashenko solidified his iron-clad grip on power and extended his 26-year rule by another five years after winning August 9, 2020, presidential election that many in the opposition and international observers called sham.
Woman Protesters Form Human Chain
Protesters held fourth day of daily demonstrations on August 12, 2020 at Minsk and other cities in Belarus for alleged vote fraud that had culminated in President Alexander Lukashenko coasting to victory with an unbelievable 80 percent of the vote vs. his key challenger getting only 10 percent vote and extending his 26-year rule and subsequent harsh crackdown on peaceful protesters. On August 12, 2020, female protesters wore whites and formed a human chain against August 9, 2020, alleged election fraud. Since the night of election, protesters are out on the streets in thousands, and security forces have used batons, truncheons, rubber bullets and water cannons to disperse mostly peaceful protesters.
Thousands Protest for the Fifth Straight Day
Thousands of women continued their second day of forming human chains in various parts of Minsk on August 13, 2020, and now, country's workers had joined the protest on the fifth day of nationwide demonstration since a disputed election on August 9, 2020 had resulted in President Alexander Lukashenko garnering 80 percent of the vote and extending his 26-year iron-clad rule. Many of the women who had formed the human chains have their sons, daughters, husbands, or parents hauled by nation's security crackdown with arrests numbering as high as 7,000. At least one protester was reported killed, and that tragic incident, with very little details, happened on August 10, 2020.
20,000 Rally against Lukashenko as Government Tries to De-escalate Situation
Protests simmered across the country for the sixth consecutive day on August 14, 2020 as a 20,000-something-strong crowd rallied at the central square in Belarussian capital of Minsk. Factory workers marched through the capital too, demanding the ouster of Alexander Lukashenko. Meanwhile, the authoritarian regime has released 2,000 of 7,000 protesters arrested in recent days.
Media Outlets Blocked; Another Major Rally Called
Almost after two weeks of huge rallies, the regime of President Alexander Lukashenko cracked down heavily on the country's independent media. The Belarusian Association of Journalists on August 22, 2020 reported that many of the media outlets, including the U.S-funded Radio Liberty and a Polish-funded satellite TV station, Belsat, had been shut down earlier in the day. Independent newspapers Narodnaya Volya and Komsomolskaya Pravda were not printed too during the day. President Alexander Lukashenko's main electoral challenger, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, who had fled the nation to Lithuania hours after August 9, 2020, presidential election in anticipation of a possible arrest on August 22, 2020 called in a video message for another Sunday massive rally for August 23, 2020. On August 16, 2020, a rally of strong-200,000 Belarusians flooded the streets of Minsk. A point in contrast was a parallel rally that had been addressed by President Lukashenko, and only about tens of thousands joined in that pro-government rally.
Massive Rally Held to Demand Lukashenko's Ouster; Lithuanians Form Human Chain
A week after August 16, 2020, huge demonstration, another 200,000-plus-size demonstration of overflow crowd was held at Minsk's Independence Square on August 23, 2020. Later many demonstrators marched toward the presidential palace where they had met a massive dragnet of state security apparatus. President Alexander Lukashenko, who displays a charismatic and machismo-style air, landed on the presidential ground in a helicopter, wearing a bullet-proof vest and waving a Kalashnikov-style automatic rifle, as hundreds of thousands of protesters were demanding his resignation.
In the neighboring Lithuania, tens of thousands of people on August 23, 2020 joined to form a massive human chain, spanning a 20-mile-stretch from the capital Vilnius to the border, dubbed as the Freedom Way, to demand freedom of their neighbors in Belarus. In many ways, its a reminder of August 23, 1989, Baltic Way, another human chain across the three Baltic states of Lithuania, Estonia and Latvia by more than a million people, demanding the unshackling of Soviet bondage. Drawing the parallel, Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda advocated freedom and fair election for "our Belarusian brothers".
Lukashenko Ramps up Pressure on Activists
In order to generate scare, President Alexander Lukashenko regime had decided to crank up pressure on the protest movement. On August 25, 2020, two members of Coordination Council, formed last week as a forum to facilitate transition to an interim government from the Lukashenko government, were handed 10-day sentence by Minsk courts. Pressure is also on by arresting select leaders of the protest movement and driving wedge in the movement itself.
Lukashenko Regime Cracks down on Journalists
President Alexander Lukashenko regime on August 29, 2020 took several action to muzzle the independent voice and portrayal of what's been happening in Belarus over the past three weeks by deporting many foreign correspondents and taking away press credentials of many other independent journalists. The Associated Press condemned the deportation of two of its Russia-based journalists and revoking credentials of many of its Belarusian correspondents. The Belarusian Association of Journalists said during the day that 17 other journalists were targeted to revoke the accreditation.
Massive Rally on the Third Sunday in a Row
A massive rally was held again on August 30, 2020 at Minsk to demand the resignation of Alexander Lukashenko who opposition and international observers alleged had rigged the August 9, 2020, presidential poll and received a whopping 80 percent vote, defeating Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, a school teacher and wife of a dissident blogger. After the polls were closed, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya had fled Belarus for Lithuania to avoid any possible arrest as patterns had shown that Lukashenko often used arrest to silence his critic. On August 30, 2020, the estimate crowd size was 100,000, and scores walked toward the presidential palace after finding the capital's Independence Square barricaded by law enforcement personnel.
Sunday (August 30, 2020) was also Alexander Lukashenko's birthday, and Russian President Vladimir Putin was reported to have called him to wish and congratulate on his election win. Stepping in the political tumult of her nation, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya said from Vilnius that she wished Lukashenko too, and good thing for him on his birthday was "to listen to the voice of people and go away".
After Another Massive Sunday Protest, One Opposition Leader Goes Missing
Another Sunday, another strong 100,000-plus show of protest against Alexander Lukashenko. After September 6, 2020, massive rally, one of the members of the Coordination Council, formed days ago to talk to the government to facilitate transitioning to an interim administration, was reported missing on September 7, 2020. Maria Kolesnikova's disappearance was a gut punch to Belarusians as it showed a desperation on behalf of the Lukashenko regime not to spare anything to save his presidency.
Four Other Coordination Council Members Whisked away
The same day opposition leader Maria Kolesnikova was taken by masked security personnel, two other members Coordination Council were whisked away too by unknown state security officers. Anton Radniankou and Ivan Krautsou, executive secretary of the council, were taken away separately by state security personnel on September 7, 2020. On September 9, 2020, two lawyers, Maksim Znak and Ilya Saley, part of the Coordination Council Presidium, were taken from their homes by unknown masked people. Now, only the Nobel laureate Svetlana Alexievich is the only Coordination Council Presidium member in the country free.
10,000 Women Demonstrate against Pro-Russia Regime
Two days before President Alexander Lukashenko is to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin, who has offered to send troops across the border if daily demonstrations turn violent, at Black Sea resort of Sochi, approximately 10,000 women have marched through the capital, Minsk, on September 12, 2020, banging pots and pans and demanding the beleaguered Belarusian president resign. Many of the demonstrators were carrying the portraits of Maria Kolesnikova, who had been detained on September 7, 2020 and reported being transported to the border to expel her when she was seen tearing up her passport. Since then Maria Kolesnikova has been at the state security custody.
300 Female Marchers Arrested
More than 2,000 woman marchers demanding the president to resign walked through main government areas of Minsk on September 19, 2020, but security personnel arrested more than 300 of them, signifying authorities’ reluctance to restrain, even for women, from imposing harsh mitigation measures to control crowd.
Belarusian President Inaugurated Secretly
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko took the oath of office on September 23, 2020 as rest of the nation was adamant that he continued to stay in power and not informed about the day’s swearing-in ceremony. European leaders made it clear that they would not recognize the August 9, 2020, election victory of Lukashenko and recognize him as the country’s legitimate president. During the day, the security dragnet was rigid around Palace of Independence at Minsk where the event was held.
Female Protesters out in the Streets; 80 Arrested
A day before another massive Sunday Demonstration is to take place, scores of women have taken to streets on September 26, 2020, a Saturday ritual these days when large Sunday demonstrations are preceded by Saturday women rallies, demanding President Alexander Lukashenko resign. At least 80 of the women were arrested.
Another 100,000+-strong Sunday Rally to Decry Lukashenko
Every Sunday since August 9, 2020 has become a focal point of Belarusian resistance movement with massive show of strength against President Alexander Lukashenko. September 27, 2020, a Sunday, added another important milestone to that glory: it marked the 50th day of demonstration against Lukashenko regime. On September 27, 2020, more than 100,000 protesters participated in the main rally at Minsk. Rallies were held in nine other cities, implying that protest had been spreading to other parts of the country. Encouraging the protesters not to let their energy down, chief opposition candidate in last month’s presidential election, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, marked the 50th day of protest movement in a video message from Lithuania, where she had fled right after the August 9, 2020, presidential election to avoid arrest, by urging her country’s citizen “to stop this regime”. A day earlier, September 26, 2020, Belarusian Foreign Minister Vladimir Makei addressed the U.N. General Assembly and condemned the foreign interference in his country’s matter to “bring chaos and anarchy".
Canada, U.K. Hits Belarus with Sanctions; Macron Meets Opposition
Leader in Lithuania
In a concerted and coordinated action on September 29, 2020, both Canada and U.K. announced sanctions against Belarus’ president, Alexander Lukashenko, his son and other senior officials, punishing the former Soviet Republic’s autocratic president for “violent and fraudulent” rule, rigged election and continuous cracking-down on dissent. Meanwhile, French President Emmanuel Macron met with opposition presidential candidate, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, in Lithuania to push as part of an European mediation to bring peace in Belarus.
Ninth Sunday in a Row Witnesses Massive Protest Surge
Every Sunday became a ritual for tidal waves of anti-government demonstrations in Belarus since August 9, 2020, presidential election in which President Alexander Lukashenko had been alleged by opposition to have committed vote fraud and had received almost 80% vote, handing a crushing defeat to primary challenger Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, who had received a meager 10% of vote. On October 4, 2020, about 120,000 people turned out in full strength in Minsk to demand Lukashenko’s ouster and freedom of political prisoners. Since the protest began, at least 1,000 people were detained by the government and more than 200 had been implicated in crimes, according to a Belarusian human rights group, Viasna Human Rights Center.
Lukashenko Meets Political Prisoners at a Jailhouse; Britain Temporarily Recalls Ambassador
Indirectly acknowledging that political prisoners do exist instead of wholescale labeling of opposition leaders and protesters as criminals, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko on October 10, 2020 visited a Minsk prison and met 11 opposition leaders, including Viktor Babariko, former head of a Russian bank who had aspired to challenge Lukashenko in the August presidential poll, but had been taken to custody in May 2020, and talked about political dialogue. However, many in the opposition see this visit a ruse to fracture opposition unity as Lukashenko is getting isolated in international stage. Two EU nations—Poland and Lithuania—have a recent fallout with Lukashenko government as both have lent support to opposition protesters. Minsk ordered diplomats from the two nations to be kept at a much smaller numbers, leading Poland and Lithuania to recall their ambassadors on temporary basis. Meanwhile, Britain, in solidarity with Poland and Lithuania along with the people of Belarus, on October 9, 2020 recalled Jacqueline Perkins, British ambassador to Minsk, for further consultation as British Foreign Minister Dominic Raab called the Belarusian diplomatic hostility towards Poland and Lithuania “completely unjustifiable".
Another Sunday, Another Mass Protest, more than 700 Arrested
in the Harshest Crackdown
What could be seen as the harshest crackdown
against the protest movement that called for President Alexander Lukashenko to
step down, government forces arrested 713 protesters on October 11, 2020
as 100,000-plus strong crowd participated in the anti-government.
Belarusian President Hints Stepping down if a New Constitution Adopted
Belarusian President Aleksander Lukashenko on November 27, 2020 said that he would happily step down if a new constitution was adopted, clouding his motive and leading many to speculate that it was a ploy to buy time. His comment came a day after Lukashenko met with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, who had also supported a new constitution. It’s not quite clear what are special in new constitution that will allow Aleksander Lukashenko to step down peacefully which he can not do now.
Belarusian Opposition Leader Arrested from a Re-routed Plane
In what could be a plain act of government-sponsored hoax to arrest its opponent, a Ryanair flight from Athens to Vilnius was escorted on May 23, 2021 by a MiG-29 fighter jet to make an unplanned landing in Minsk, Belarus after a reported bomb threat, and Raman Pratasevich, a Belarusian opposition figure and journalist now living in exile in Lithuania and who was a passenger in that Ryanair plane, was taken to custody. Ryanair issued a statement during the day that Belarus’ air traffic control tower had instructed the plane to divert to Minsk. Immediately, suspicion fell on Belarusian President Aleksander Lukashenko and his inner circle for playing this heinous game in order to arrest a key exiled opposition leader.
EU Firm on Punishing Belarus over Plane Diversion and Opposition Leader's Arrest
That a plane operated by an E.U.-based company (Ireland-based Ryanair) flying between two E.U. cities (Athens to Vilnius) has been diverted and forced to land--with an escort from MiG-29 fighter jet--at Minsk, Belarus on a hoax bomb claim and subsequent removal of a Belarusian opposition journalist, Raman Pratasevich, and his Russian girlfriend from the Ryanair Flight FR4978 has rankled the political establishment of Brussels to such an extent that European Union officials on May 24, 2021 agreed hurriedly on a set of proposals to punish President Aleksander Lukashenko regime. The proposals, among others, include adoption of "necessary measures to ban overflight of EU airspace by Belarusian airlines and prevent access to EU airpoorts of flights operated by such airlines" and a call for International Civil Aviation Organization to investigate into what many called a state piracy. During the May 24, 2021, Brussels meeting among the EU members, officials raised a strong demand for President Aleksander Lukashenko regime to immediately release Raman Pratasevich, a Lukashenko critic, opposition figure and a journalist, and his Russian girlfriend, Sofia Sapega. White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki on May 24, 2021 condemned the flight diversion to arrest a journalist.
Besieged President Defends Flight Diversion
Addressing the parliament on May 26, 2021, Belarusian President Aleksander Lukashenko remained audacious, saying his government took "lawful" decision to divert the Ryanair Flight FR4978 on May 23, 2021 and land at Minsk.
Quartet of Western Powers Impose Harsh Sanction over Flight Diversion, Crackdown
In a meaningful and measured response to the grave crime of diverting an EU-based carrier’s passenger flight flying between the two E.U. nations and forcing the plane to land in Belarus to arrest a dissident journalist, European Union, United States, Canada and Britain on June 21, 2021 announced “asset freeze and travel ban” against seven individuals and one entity over what the quartet had alleged as “forced and unlawful” landing of a Ryanair plane on May 23, 2021 to arrest the dissident journalist Raman Pratasevich. Four also issued call for Minsk to cooperate with an international probe into the incident, release all political prisoners and enter into a “comprehensive and genuine political dialogue”.
Belarusian Athlete Given Polish Visa, Escalating Feud between Minsk and Warsaw
The geopolitical brinkmanship entered into the Olympic arena on August 2, 2021 as a Belarusian athlete, Krystsina Tsimanouskaya, alleged that she was being forced to return to Minsk after expressing her frustration how the national team was being managed. She approached police at a Tokyo airport, starting off a cascading of events and international diplomatic and sports drama at the epicenter of the 2020 Olympic Games. Poland later on August 2, 2021 granted a humanitarian visa for Krystsina Tsimanouskaya, 24, and Polish Deputy Foreign Minister Szymon Szynkowski vel Sek has said that once Tsimanouskaya is in Poland, she may apply for refugee status. Meanwhile, Belarusian official media lampooned the athlete as a failure and an embarrassment.
Belarusian
Opposition Activist Found Hanged in Ukraine
A
Belarusian opposition activist who had been leading a Kyiv-based anti-Minsk organization,
Belarusian House in Ukraine, was found dead at a Kyiv park on August
3, 2021. Ukrainian National Police Chief Igor Klymenko said during
the day that authorities were probing whether hanging death of Vitaly Shishov
was a suicide, or a homicide set up to look like a suicide. Ukrainian
President Volodymyr Zelensky is reported to have been keeping a close eye
on this case, according to his spokesman, Serhiy Nykeforov. Ukrainian
Foreign Minister Dmitro Kuleba on August 3, 2021 promised on twitter that “Ukraine
will do everything possible to fully investigate the case".
Belarusian Opposition Activist Found Hanged in Ukraine
Belarusian Supreme Court on August 27, 2021 issued a sweeping crackdown, liquidating a key organization of independent journalists. The August 27, 2021, order to shutter the Belarusian Association of Journalists followed jailing of around 30 journalists, shutdowns of newspapers and forcing out of business the PEN Center, a writers' organization led by Nobel Laureate for Literature Svetlana Alexieveich.
Belarusian Supreme Court on August 27, 2021 issued a sweeping crackdown, liquidating a key organization of independent journalists. The August 27, 2021, order to shutter the Belarusian Association of Journalists followed jailing of around 30 journalists, shutdowns of newspapers and forcing out of business the PEN Center, a writers' organization led by Nobel Laureate for Literature Svetlana Alexieveich.
Scuffle between Migrants and Poles Exposes Belarussian New Game Plan, West Alleges
On November 8 and November 9, 2021, scuffle broke out between Polish security forces and migrants from the middle east at Belarus-Poland borders. Polish security forces are fortifying the eastern frontiers with barbed wires and other barriers. European Union accused Minsk of using migrants as pawns to launch "hybrid attacks" on the eastern-most boundary of the 27-nation European Union as a response to the strict sanctions imposed on Belarus for the Russia-allied state's autocratic rule and suppression of political opposition. Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said on November 9, 2021 during an emergency parliamentary session that the "security of our eastern border is being brutally violated".
Thousands
of Migrants Return to Iraq; Charitable Donations Held in Polish Town
After
days of tension along the Polish-Belarus borders, some order of
sensibility and sanity has returned as thousands of Iraqis, who constitute the
majority of migrants trying to enter Poland from the side of Belarus, have
flown back to Iraq on November 18, 2021 as they have realized the scale
of difficulties in accessing a passage to Western Europe through Poland.
Despite Polish security forces’ strict vigilance on the border, several hundred
migrants were able to enter Poland. Many of them filed applications with Polish
authorities. These migrants have been accommodated in local shelters near the
border.
Meanwhile,
in a remarkable gesture of humanity and kindness, a charitable collection was
held at the Polish border town of Michalowo to collect items and merchandise
for the migrants. Michalowo Deputy Mayor Konrad Sikora told The
Associated Press on November 19, 2021 that people from other parts
of Poland had come to his town to donate toys, cloths, books and other stuff
for the migrants.
Polish
Premier Sees the Border Crisis to be Evolving, not Winding down
Poland’s
prime minister was in the midst of a one-day swing through Baltic States on November
21, 2021 to craft a unified response to the migrant crisis erupted along
the Polish-Belarus border. Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said
at Vilnius after meeting his Lithuanian counterpart, Ingrida Simonyte,
that Belarusian government of Alexander Lukashenko would continue to
deepen the border crisis with the help of Russia by encouraging migrants from
Afghanistan and Uzbekistan, calling it a “threat of an even more difficult
scenario”. Earlier in the day, he told reporters at the Estonian capital of
Tallinn that his government was willing to foot the bill for return flights.
Opposition
Candidate’s Husband Sentenced for 18 Years
The
husband of a former opposition candidate, Sviatlana Tshikhanouskaya,
was sentenced to 18 years of imprisonment by a Belarusian court.
The six-month trial was held behind the closed doors, and opposition activists
and the west called the entire process as a judicial sham. Along with Siarhei
Tshikhanouskaya, the court sentenced five other activists to 14 to 16 years.
Siarhei Tshikhanouskaya, a prolific blogger and activist, declared his
candidacy for August 2020 presidential election to challenge President
Alexander Lukashenko in a bid that his followers had dubbed as “stop the
cockroach”. Two days after declaration of his candidacy, Siarhei
Tshikhanouskaya was arrested in May 2020. His wife, Sviatlana
Tshikhanouskaya, ran in his stead in the August 2020 presidential
election and received substantial number of votes, but Lukashenko had won overwhelmingly
in the poll that had been called rigged by western nations and international
organizations.
Russia
Flies Two Nuclear-capable Bombers in Belarusian Sky
Two
Russian nuclear-capable, long-range bombers on December 18, 2021 flew
over the airspace of Belarus as part of “joint tasks with the Belarusian air
force and air defense”. The four-hour mission involves two Russian bombers, Tu-22M3,
escorted by Belarusian Su-30 fighter jets. The Belarusian fighter jets
were supplied by Russia too.
First Female to Become Estonia's President
It was a historic day in the Baltic nation of Estonia as 46-year-old Kersti Kaljulaid was sworn in on October 10, 2016 as the nation's first woman president. The inauguration ceremony was held at Riigikogu, or the Parliament, with festive and joyful mood. The capital city of Tallinn wore a celebratory look. Kersti Kaljulaid succeeds a 10-year, two-term reign of outgoing President Toomas Hendrik Ilves.
Pro-Russian Cabinet Sworn in
After the outgoing premier Taavi Rovias stepped down earlier this month after losing a confidence vote in Estonian parliament, a three-way coalition among Center Party, left-leaning Social Democrats and the conservative IRL Party emerged as an alternative. Center Party's Juri Ratas on November 23, 2016 was sworn in as Estonia's prime minister along with 14 of his cabinet colleagues. Center Party enjoys strong allegiance of Estonia's ethnic Russian population. In 2004, Center Party and Russian President Vladimir Putin's United Russia Party signed a cooperation agreement that had raised eyebrows in Tallinn and other Baltic capitals. Clarifying on that co-operation deal, Ratas, 38, a former Tallinn mayor, said that the 2004 deal was now kept in suspension.
GEORGIA
Georgia and Moldova to Strengthen Ties with EU
On May 14, 2014, European Council President Herman Van Rompuy said that two former Soviet Republics, Georgia and Moldova, would sign a treaty with EU on June 27, 2014 to strengthen the political and trade ties with the bloc, an agreement former Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych refused to sign in late November 2013, precipitating a crisis that resulted in his ouster, Crimean annexation by Russia and the present unrest in Eastern Ukraine.
Abkhazia's Leader Resigns
The pro-Russian breakaway republic of Abkhazia descended into political chaos on June 1, 2014 as a weeklong protest forced President Alexander Ankvab to resign. On May 30, 2014, republic's parliament voted to oust Ankvab, assigned Speaker Valery Bganba as acting president, and scheduled August 24, 2014 for presidential polls. Although Alexander Ankvab initially refused to oblige the republic's parliament, he eventually caved in on June 1 and called it quits after coming under pressure from people and republic's benefactor, Kremlin.
Russia Tightens Grip on Breakaway Region
Russia signed a treaty on November 24, 2014 cementing further trade, economic and security ties with the Georgian breakaway region of Abkhazia, consolidating Moscow's grip on Russian speaking regions across former Soviet Republics.
Former Georgian President Sentenced
Former Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili seemed to have at loggerheads with the law enforcement both in his own country and his adopted nation, Ukraine. On January 5, 2018, a Georgian Court sentenced the former president to three years in prison for abusing his pardon authority by handing out clemency to four police officers in 2008 bypassing the formal presidential commission designated for pardon. Mikheil Saakashvili is also facing criminal prosecution in Ukraine for misinformation in his asylum application, which Saakashvili called a ruse by the regime of Petro Poroshenko to silence him as he had been vocal about the endemic corruption of Ukrainian officials, Petro Poroshenko. After stepping down in 2013, Mikheil Saakashvili moved to Ukraine, and a year later, supported the pro-western demonstration that ousted Viktor Yanukovych. Poroshenko rewarded Mikheil Saakashvili with the position of Odessa's governor, but their honeymoon fell apart after Mikheil Saakashvili alleged corruption against the Ukrainian president and his political allies.
Protest Rocks Georgia; Russia Suspends Commercial Airlines
As lawmakers from the Christian Orthodox countries met for a conference at Georgia's legislature, including a delegation from Russia, anti-Russian protesters took to Tbilisi's streets on June 20, 2019. Protesters consider the current Georgian regime as too tilted to Kremlin to protect the sovereignty of the former Soviet Republic. The intense protest the next day on June 21, 2019 forced the speaker of the Georgian parliament to resign. As the anti-government demonstration, growing by the day, continued on the third straight day on June 22, 2019, Russia said that it would ban flight from Georgia and suspend all flights to the country effective July 8, 2019 for safety reasons.
Former
Georgian President Taken to Custody upon Return
Hours
after Former Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili returned to his
homeland from Ukraine, where he was in exile, on October 1, 2021 for the
purpose of rallying his supporters in the all-so-crucial October 2, 2021,
municipal election, he was arrested and taken into custody with handcuff. A TV
image showed Saakashvili with a smiling face being escorted by two
police officers. Prime Minister Irakli Garibashvili announced the arrest
of Mikheil Saakashvili, who was convicted in absentia on charges of
abuse of power. In April 2021, European Union brokered an
agreement between the ruling Georgian Dream Party and the opposition,
including Saakashvili’s United National Movement, that called for a snap
parliamentary poll if Georgian Dream Party received less than 43%
of all proportional votes in the local elections in the country’s 64
municipalities. However, it is not
clear if the ruling party will honor that agreement as it has withdrawn from
that deal in July 2021 after the United National Movement has yet
to sign the deal by then. In September 2021, though, United National
Movement signed the deal.
KAZAKHSTAN
Long-term President Steps down
After a reign of three decades of iron-clad rule that often helped the west as a steadfast ally to fight against terrorism, Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev on March 19, 2019 announced his resignation. Nursultan Nazarbayev was a steadfast ally of the west in fight against terrorism, and as the chief of the ruling Communist Party, he became the ruler of the strategic central Asian nation--at that time a republic of the then-Soviet Union--in 1989. He was elected as the country's president just days before Soviet breakup in 1991. Nursultan Nazarbayev's strong-armed rule brought a great degree of stability to the nation, but his authoritarianism stifled the voice of democracy which his western allies had all but ignored for strategic reasons. Nursultan Nazarbayev, 78, will be succeeded by the upper house speaker Kassym-Jomart Tokayev as a transitional president. Kassym-Jomart Tokayev was a firm loyalist of Nursultan, a former premier and foreign minister, and also served as director-general of the U.N. from 2011 to 2013 at Geneva. Although Nursultan Nazarbayev is stepping down as president, he will continue to lead the ruling Nur Otan party as well as to serve as a member of the Security Council of this central Asian nation of 18 million people.
New Kazakh President Renames the Capital
Newly installed president of Kazakhstan, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, who took over after the former president had resigned on March 19, 2019, issued an order on March 23, 2019 to rename the capital from Astana to Nursultan to honor the former President Nursultan Nazarbayev.
Protesters Detained as Strongman's Handpicked Candidate Wins an Easy Victory
There were scattered protests in the Kazakh administrative capital, Nursultan, and commercial capital, Almaty, on June 9, 2019 to protest against an alleged fixed election during the day that former dictator Nursultan Nazarbayev's protégé, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, was expected to win easily. At least 500 demonstrators were arrested.
KAZAKHSTAN
Long-term President Steps down
After a reign of three decades of iron-clad rule that often helped the west as a steadfast ally to fight against terrorism, Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev on March 19, 2019 announced his resignation. Nursultan Nazarbayev was a steadfast ally of the west in fight against terrorism, and as the chief of the ruling Communist Party, he became the ruler of the strategic central Asian nation--at that time a republic of the then-Soviet Union--in 1989. He was elected as the country's president just days before Soviet breakup in 1991. Nursultan Nazarbayev's strong-armed rule brought a great degree of stability to the nation, but his authoritarianism stifled the voice of democracy which his western allies had all but ignored for strategic reasons. Nursultan Nazarbayev, 78, will be succeeded by the upper house speaker Kassym-Jomart Tokayev as a transitional president. Kassym-Jomart Tokayev was a firm loyalist of Nursultan, a former premier and foreign minister, and also served as director-general of the U.N. from 2011 to 2013 at Geneva. Although Nursultan Nazarbayev is stepping down as president, he will continue to lead the ruling Nur Otan party as well as to serve as a member of the Security Council of this central Asian nation of 18 million people.
New Kazakh President Renames the Capital
Newly installed president of Kazakhstan, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, who took over after the former president had resigned on March 19, 2019, issued an order on March 23, 2019 to rename the capital from Astana to Nursultan to honor the former President Nursultan Nazarbayev.
Protesters Detained as Strongman's Handpicked Candidate Wins an Easy Victory
There were scattered protests in the Kazakh administrative capital, Nursultan, and commercial capital, Almaty, on June 9, 2019 to protest against an alleged fixed election during the day that former dictator Nursultan Nazarbayev's protégé, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, was expected to win easily. At least 500 demonstrators were arrested.
Kazakh Violence Raises Further Instability in an already Precariously Instable
Region
Fueled by the rise in fuel prices that had spiked the costs of
everything else meteorically almost overnight combined with the seething
discontent stemming from one-party rule and endemic corruption, tens of
thousands of Kazakhs took to the streets in recent days, often leading to
street fighting between security forces and protesters. On January 5, 2022,
situation spiraled out of control as protesters stormed Presidential palace,
Almaty mayor’s office complex and other government buildings and set them on
fire. President Kassym Jomart Tokayev requested a six-nation,
Russia-allied security group—Collective Security Treaty Organization—to send
reinforcement to Kazakhstan for peacekeeping purpose and bringing the situation
under control. CSTO’s current chairman, Armenian Premier Nikol Pashinyan,
approved an unspecified number of peacekeeping forces. Kazakh Interior Ministry
said on January 5, 2022 that eight police and national guard personnel
were killed in the ensuing violence without saying how many had been killed on
the other side.
Kazakh Violence Kills Dozens of Protesters, 12 Police Officers
Undaunted by the show of Kazakh forces, protesters emerged on the
streets of Almaty, nation’s largest city, on full force of belligerence
on January 6, 2022. Authorities said on January 6, 2022 that the two-day
violence that had erupted on January 5, 2022 had killed 12 security
forces personnel and dozens of protesters. Acquiescing to the demand of broader population, Kazakh government on January
6, 2022 imposed an 180-day price cap on vehicle fuel and a moratorium of
utility price hikes.
Kazakh Ruler Issues “Shoot to Kill Order”
The situation stemming from a popular, but leaderless, anti-government
protest, worst since the country became independent in 1991, that had erupted
in violence, including protesters setting government buildings, mayoral office,
presidential palace and other public buildings in fire, on January 5, 2022
took a nastier turn on January 7, 2022 as Kazakhstan’s president in a
televised address to the nation boasted that “I have given the order to law
enforcement and the army to shoot to kill without warning”. Kazakh President
Kassym-Jomart Tokayev also dubbed the protesters “terrorists”. The order to
“shoot to kill without warning” marks a new escalation, and is compounded by the
arrival of about 2,500 troops from a Russia-led security alliance, Collective
Security Treaty Organization, or CSTO. The CSTO troops have arrived at Almaty
on January 5, 2022. They will not be responsible for law and order,
instead helping protecting buildings and government assets. Kazakh Interior
Ministry said on January 7, 2022 that the three-day (January 5-7,
2022) violence had killed 26 protesters and wounded 26 others. At least
3,800 protesters were detained. A total of 18 law enforcement personnel were
killed in the violence too, and over 700 injured.
Death Toll Raised to 164
The state-owned news channel Khabar-24 reported on January 9,
2022 that 164 people were killed in the week-long violence in Kazakhstan,
including a 4-year-old, without providing a breakdown of how many of the dead
were civilians and how many were security personnel. The Office of President
Kassym-Jomart Tokayev issued a statement on January 9, 2022 that
order had largely been restored in Almaty and other areas. The worst
anti-government protest since the Central Asian country’s 1991 independence
from Russia erupted in western Kazakhstan on January 2, 2022, but spread
to other regions like a wildfire and, in the last week, took a violent turn.
Meanwhile, U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, appearing on the ABC
News’ This Week, said on January 9, 2022 that the “shoot-to-kill
order, to the extent it exists, is wrong and should be rescinded".
KYRGYZSTAN
President Resigns, New Premier to Take over Presidency, Instability Mounts in Kyrgyzstan
In what could be described as the most tumultuous 11 days in the country’s history, President Sooronbai Jennbekov on October 15, 2020 announced that he would step down after refusing to do so. After October 4, 2020, parliamentary polls, in which governing parties had won, but the election outcome disputed by the independent poll observers and international organizations as allegations of electoral malpractices and poll irregularities loomed large, large crowd of opposition supporters poured into the streets of Bishkek, the Kyrgyz capital, and lay siege to government buildings and freed political prisoners, including opposition leader Sadyr Zhaparov—serving an 11-year sentence—who had become the country’s prime minister. However, Zhaparov demanded that Sooronbai Jennbekov immediately resign. Under Kyrgyz constitution, Speaker of parliament will elevate to presidency after president leaves the office. However, under the present political turmoil where opposition is demanding that Zhaparov become the president, speaker of the parliament is reluctant to take over the presidency.
President Resigns, New Premier to Take over Presidency, Instability Mounts in Kyrgyzstan
In what could be described as the most tumultuous 11 days in the country’s history, President Sooronbai Jennbekov on October 15, 2020 announced that he would step down after refusing to do so. After October 4, 2020, parliamentary polls, in which governing parties had won, but the election outcome disputed by the independent poll observers and international organizations as allegations of electoral malpractices and poll irregularities loomed large, large crowd of opposition supporters poured into the streets of Bishkek, the Kyrgyz capital, and lay siege to government buildings and freed political prisoners, including opposition leader Sadyr Zhaparov—serving an 11-year sentence—who had become the country’s prime minister. However, Zhaparov demanded that Sooronbai Jennbekov immediately resign. Under Kyrgyz constitution, Speaker of parliament will elevate to presidency after president leaves the office. However, under the present political turmoil where opposition is demanding that Zhaparov become the president, speaker of the parliament is reluctant to take over the presidency.
Kyrgyzstan’s
President-elect Accused of Forcing out His Predecessor from Office
Kyrgyz
voters on January 10, 2021 elected Sadyr Zhaparov as new
president of the Central Asian country of 6.5 million in a landslide margin. Sadyr
Zhaparov had been sentenced to prison in 2017 after being convicted
on charges related to kidnapping of a regional governor. He was also accused of
fomenting trouble that forced the Former President Sooronbai Jeenbekov
to step down last year.
LATVIA
Biden Assures Baltic Nations
U.S. Vice President Joe Biden on August 23, 2016 assured the Baltic states that Washington had their back, and if needed, U.S. would not hesitate to invoke NATO's Article 5, a key tenet of collective self-defense. Biden was addressing a news conference at Riga, capital of Latvia, after a meeting with Presidents Raimonds Vejonis of the host nation, Dalia Grybauskaite of Lithuania and Toomas Hendrik Ilves of Estonia.
LITHUANIA
Trial of Ex-Soviet Officials Begins
A landmark trial of 65 former Soviet-era officials began on January 27, 2016 at a Vilnius court for their role in 1991 crackdown on pro-democracy protesters. Only two defendants were present, and both pleaded not guilty. During those heydays of democracy movement that had helped the Baltic state to gain independence as part of breakup of Soviet Union, 14 people were killed in the 1991 crackdown.
Lithuania's President Accuses Russia of Missile Amp-up
Visiting NATO troops at Rukla in Central Lithuania, President Dalia Grybauskite said on February 5, 2018 that Russia was deploying "Iskander missiles in Kaliningrad for permanent presence as we speak", referring to Russian base in Baltic Sea. NATO's Deputy Secretary-General Rose Gottemoeller, who was visting Rukla too, said that if President Grybauskite's assertion was right, it would set a dangerous precedent.
MOLDOVA
Georgia and Moldova to Strengthen Ties with EU
On May 14, 2014, European Council President Herman Van Rompuy said that two former Soviet Republics, Georgia and Moldova, would sign a treaty with EU on June 27, 2014 to strengthen the political and trade ties with the bloc, an agreement former Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych refused to sign in late November 2013, precipitating a crisis that resulted in his ouster, Crimean annexation by Russia and the present unrest in Eastern Ukraine.
Moldova's Pro-Russian Candidate Leading in Presidential Polls
In an ominous setback to the pro-west political establishment, former Communist Party leader and pro-Kremlin candidate Igor Dodon was reportedly winning the first round of presidential polls held on October 30, 2016 and appeared to be heading for a run-off. Moldova's voters are frustrated, to say the least, how corruption has creeped into every facet of governance and economic opportunities have dwindled under pro-western regime.
Pro-Russian Candidate Wins Presidential Runoff
Pro-Russian candidate Igor Dodon won the November 13, 2016, presidential runoff over the pro-west candidate Maia Sandu, a former World Bank official, thus creating an additional headache at the western doorstep of Ukraine. The election cemented a closer proximity between Moscow and Chisinau.
Final Result Shows Pro-Russian Candidate Winning the Presidency Handsomely
Moldova's election commission announced on November 14, 2016 that the pro-Russian candidate Igor Dodon had received 52.2 percent vote, edging the pro-west candidate Maia Sandu, who had received 47.8 percent vote in the November 13, 2016, presidential runoff.
Trio of Parliamentary Speakers Blast Russian Troops, Intervention
Speakers of Moldova, Georgia and Ukraine issued a rare joint statement on March 2, 2018 blasting the presence of Russian troops in Moldovan soil and flagrant intervention in Ukraine and parts of Georgia.
LATVIA
Biden Assures Baltic Nations
U.S. Vice President Joe Biden on August 23, 2016 assured the Baltic states that Washington had their back, and if needed, U.S. would not hesitate to invoke NATO's Article 5, a key tenet of collective self-defense. Biden was addressing a news conference at Riga, capital of Latvia, after a meeting with Presidents Raimonds Vejonis of the host nation, Dalia Grybauskaite of Lithuania and Toomas Hendrik Ilves of Estonia.
LITHUANIA
Trial of Ex-Soviet Officials Begins
A landmark trial of 65 former Soviet-era officials began on January 27, 2016 at a Vilnius court for their role in 1991 crackdown on pro-democracy protesters. Only two defendants were present, and both pleaded not guilty. During those heydays of democracy movement that had helped the Baltic state to gain independence as part of breakup of Soviet Union, 14 people were killed in the 1991 crackdown.
Lithuania's President Accuses Russia of Missile Amp-up
Visiting NATO troops at Rukla in Central Lithuania, President Dalia Grybauskite said on February 5, 2018 that Russia was deploying "Iskander missiles in Kaliningrad for permanent presence as we speak", referring to Russian base in Baltic Sea. NATO's Deputy Secretary-General Rose Gottemoeller, who was visting Rukla too, said that if President Grybauskite's assertion was right, it would set a dangerous precedent.
MOLDOVA
Georgia and Moldova to Strengthen Ties with EU
On May 14, 2014, European Council President Herman Van Rompuy said that two former Soviet Republics, Georgia and Moldova, would sign a treaty with EU on June 27, 2014 to strengthen the political and trade ties with the bloc, an agreement former Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych refused to sign in late November 2013, precipitating a crisis that resulted in his ouster, Crimean annexation by Russia and the present unrest in Eastern Ukraine.
Moldova's Pro-Russian Candidate Leading in Presidential Polls
In an ominous setback to the pro-west political establishment, former Communist Party leader and pro-Kremlin candidate Igor Dodon was reportedly winning the first round of presidential polls held on October 30, 2016 and appeared to be heading for a run-off. Moldova's voters are frustrated, to say the least, how corruption has creeped into every facet of governance and economic opportunities have dwindled under pro-western regime.
Pro-Russian Candidate Wins Presidential Runoff
Pro-Russian candidate Igor Dodon won the November 13, 2016, presidential runoff over the pro-west candidate Maia Sandu, a former World Bank official, thus creating an additional headache at the western doorstep of Ukraine. The election cemented a closer proximity between Moscow and Chisinau.
Final Result Shows Pro-Russian Candidate Winning the Presidency Handsomely
Moldova's election commission announced on November 14, 2016 that the pro-Russian candidate Igor Dodon had received 52.2 percent vote, edging the pro-west candidate Maia Sandu, who had received 47.8 percent vote in the November 13, 2016, presidential runoff.
Trio of Parliamentary Speakers Blast Russian Troops, Intervention
Speakers of Moldova, Georgia and Ukraine issued a rare joint statement on March 2, 2018 blasting the presence of Russian troops in Moldovan soil and flagrant intervention in Ukraine and parts of Georgia.
Moldova’s Leader Vows to Fight Russia’s Overthrow Effort
Moldovan President Maia Sandu said on February 13, 2023 that Russia had
tried and conspired with groups and operatives to “undertake violent actions,
attack some state buildings, and even take hostages”. However, she vowed to
defeat this nefarious design. The country of 2.6 million people won the
candidate status of European Union at the same time Ukraine was accorded the
candidate status in June 2022. President Maia Sandu added that
between October and December 2022, Moldovan police and Intelligence and
Security Service, or SIS, had foiled “several cases of organized criminal
elements".
Moldova’s Pro-Russian Autonomous Regional Leader Faces Corruption
Charges
The pro-Russian regional head of Gagauzia region of Moldova
is facing corruption charges, according to Moldovan prosecutors, who on
April 24, 2024 have filed charges, accusing Evghenia Gul of
accepting more than $2.4 million in illicit payment from Moscow. Evghenia
Gul, who faces up to seven years behind bars if convicted, has denied those
charges.
RUSSIA
On December 20, 2013, Russia's most famous prisoner Mikhail Khodorkovsky was freed after President Vladimir Putin formally pardoned his political nemesis and archenemy. Immediately the former oil tycoon left for Germany to be on the side of his ailing mother. Kremlin always took a very strong stand against Khodorkovsky for his penchant to criticize Putin and fund the opposition political parties to challenge the monopoly of Putin. Prosecutors accused Khodorkovsky of orchestrating fraud, including tax evasion, in a trial that many westerns had seen as revengeful. In 2003, he was arrested, and his oil company, Yukos Oil Co., was seized by Kremlin, and forced to sell.
Two days after he was set free from a prison in northwest and flew to Berlin, Mikhail Khodorkovsky addressed a room full of reporters at Berlin on December 22, 2013, and said that he would work towards paying down the debt to other political prisoners in Russian jails by seeking their release. However, Khodorkovsky categorically stated that he would not join politics or fund any political parties.
After a landmark Amnesty law on December 19, 2013, Russia's best known political dissident was set free after a decade in jail. To follow up with pre-Christmas good will--dubbed by opponents of President Vladimir Putin as an overt effort to curry favor with the West in the run-up to February 2014 Winter Olympics at Sochi--Kremlin freed two Pussy Riot band members on December 23, 2013. Emerging out of a jail in western Russian city of Nizhny Novgorod, Maria Alekhina criticized the move, and said that she would focus on the rights of country's political prisoners and create a human rights group. A second member of the Pussy Riot band, Nadezhda Tolokonnikova, was set free from a prison at the Siberian city of Krasnoyarsk on December 23. The women had been jailed since March 2012, and would, in any case, have been released in the next three to four months. Both women--Maria Alekhina and Nadezhda Tolokonnikova--along with a third band member, Yekaterina Samutsevich, were charged on hooliganism for staging a protest performance at Moscow's main cathedral that was also targeted, according to many Russians, against the patriarch of the Russian Orthodox Church, Kirill 1. Samutsevich's sentence was later overturned.
On December 24, 2013, Russia continued its streak of amnesty by freeing a Greenpeace activist, Anthony Perrett, who along with 27 other crew members and two freelance journalists were arrested from Arctic Sunrise, a Greenpeace ship that was seized in the arctic water three months ago, and charged initially with piracy only to be downgraded to the lesser charge of hooliganism. Emerging out of the jail, a defiant Perrett issued a statement through Greenpeace that targeted oil companies instead of Russia. The statement included: "The Arctic is melting before our eyes, and yet the oil companies are lining up to profit from its destruction". Now many believe that the amnesty will also expand and cover other Greenpeace crew members. (Source: The Dallas Morning News)
On December 25, 2013, Kremlin dropped hooliganism charges against all but one of 30 members of Greenpeace activists as part of a sweeping amnesty measure. The only remaining Greenpeace activist is most likely to be freed in the coming days.
Showing defiance, two recently freed members of Pussy Riot, Maria Alekhina and Nadezhda Tolokonnikova, flew to Moscow on December 27, 2013, and held a two-hour press conference, vowing to continue struggle to topple President Vladimir Putin. However, Russian society is polarized over the open defiance of Pussy Riot members, especially their use of Orthodox Church premise to speak out against the government.
Prior to Sochi Winter Olympic (February 7-23, 2014), Russia is facing serious challenges from terrorism and violence that is spilling over from the Caucasus regions, epicenter of Islamic radicalism in Russia, to major transportation hub such as Volgograd as evident by two back-to-back suicide bombings in a span of twenty four hours. On December 29, 2013, a suicide bombing at a rail station in the city that had killed at least 17 people. Following day, December 30, 2013, an explosion at a bus in the same city killed at least 14 people. Volgograd, formerly known as Stalingrad, is 550 miles south of Moscow and northwest of Sochi. The twin bombings came months after Chechen rebel leader Doku Umarov called for new attacks against civilian targets in Russia. (Source: The Dallas Morning News)
Russia's Missile Test May be Violation of a Key Treaty
U.S. informed this month that Russia's recent ground-launched cruise missile test might have violated a key 1987 medium-range missile treaty signed by Ronald Reagan and Mikhail Gorbachev. Since May 2013, State Department's senior arms controller Rose Gottemoeller raised Russia's repeated tests that had started in earnest since 2008 with Russian officials several times. Jen Psaki, State Department's spokeswoman said on January 29, 2014 that the "ongoing review process" was being conducted. (Source: The Dallas Morning News)
Putin Critic Put Under House Arrest
On February 28, 2014, a Moscow judge, Judge Artur Karpov, ordered Russian President Vladimir Putin's staunch political critic and ardent blogger Alexei Navalny under house arrest for violating the terms of a travel ban over a pending trial related to an alleged defrauding case. The judge also ordered a total ban on internet and telephone usage, receiving visitors other than family members and speaking with news media. In the run up to Sochi Winter Olympics, according to many western political observers, Putin relaxed clamping down on dissidence and freed well-known prisoners such as two Pussy Riot members as well as his archrival Mikhail Khodorkovsky, but restarted clampdown in the full swing after the Olympics were over.
Chechen Warlord Reported Dead
Although reported dead several times before by police and government officials, this time Caucasus Emirate on March 18, 2014 announced the death news of fearsome Chechen leader Doku Umarov, who had ordered January 2011 bombing of Moscow's Domodedovo Airport that had killed 37 people and March 2010 bombings on Moscow subway that had killed 40 people. (Source: The Dallas Morning News)
Russian President Hosts Q&A Session, Reserves the Right to Defend Russian Speaking People, Fields Question from Snowden
In his annual Q-and-A session televised live on April 17, 2014, Russian President Vladimir Putin defended his right to take measures to protect ethnic Russians and Russian speaking populace in Ukraine's east although he had hoped that such steps would not be necessary. Putin said that he had already received that authority from the upper house of country's parliament, Federation Council. His Q-and-A session also struck the nerve of many critics of Russian president both in Russia and outside for his repeated assertion of Novorossiya, or, New Russia, that refers to Russian Empire in the late 1700s that had stretched to what is now East Ukraine. Putin said during the Q-and-A session that he was not sure why the region was returned to Ukraine in 1920. Also, during the session, President Putin fielded question from the fugitive American NSA contractor Edward Snowden, who had asked Putin whether his country spied on Russians the way US did for its citizens. Putin's answer was: "NO. Thank God, our special services are strictly controlled by the state and society, and their activity is regulated by the law".
Putin to Respect Ukrainian Election Outcome, Embraces Exxon with a Pact to Rebuff Washington
Addressing the International Economic Forum at St. Petersburg on May 23, 2014, Russian President Vladimir Putin assured that he would respect the outcome of the May 25, 2014, Ukrainian presidential polls. The highlight of the conference at St. Petersburg was Putin's emphasis on publicly flaunting a landmark agreement between US oil giant Exxon and Russian oil giant OAO Rosneft CEO Igor Sechin to extend an exploration and production deal in the Arctic and Siberia and liquefying natural gas for export in Russia's Far East. Exxon refused to oblige a U.S. State Department request to skip the conference at St. Petersburg. With 75 billion barrels of reserves at stake, western explorers and oil companies are reluctant to shun Russian theater altogether in the aftermath of sanctions on Russian targets by western nations to punish Moscow's intervention in neighboring Ukraine.
Britain to Launch Inquiry into 2006 Murder of a Former KGB Agent
As if the current European and US actions over unrest in Eastern Ukraine were not enough, British Home Minister Theresa May on July 22, 2014 announced that a public inquiry would be held into November 2006 poison death of Alexander Litvinenko after he drank a cup of tea laced with Polodium-210 Isotope at a London hotel. British authorities subsequently indicted another former KGB officer, Andrei Lugovoi, in Litvinenko's murder, and sought his extradition. Lugovoi, a current member of parliament, denied any role in the murder of Alexander Litvinenko. Russian President Vladimir Putin and Litvinenko parted companies in 1998 after Litvinenko demanded inquiry into corruption charges in the ranks of FSB, successor of KGB. Litvinenko's allegation that there were corruptions irked Vladimir Putin, then head of FSB. Alexander Litvinenko left Russia with his family in 2000, and sought asylum in Britain.
Harsher Sanctions Co-ordinated by USA and Europe Against Russia Amid Intensified Fighting
A cross-Atlantic coordination led to almost simultaneous slapping of a broader sanctions regime against Russia on July 29, 2014. An often reluctant Europe found Russia's increasing belligerence over crisis in Eastern Ukraine unacceptable as in the aftermath of downing of July 17, 2014, Malaysian Airlines Flight 17 Russia's involvement in the crisis became more direct as there were instances of firing artillery from its sides of the borders, re-massing of troops along its borders and shipment of armament. The new set of sanctions targeted more areas in defense, energy and banking sectors. The sanctions include restrictions on exports of western technology crucial for unlocking hard-to-find oil and gas. Referring to the enhanced sanction list, European Council President Herman Van Rompuy and European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso said that they were "meant as a strong warning".
Obama Administration Calls Out Russia's Violation of a 1987 Arms Ban Treaty
In an unrelated, but surely attention-grabbing, action with respect to prevailing tension between Russia and the West--in general, and the USA in particular--over Crimean annexation and conflict in Eastern Ukraine, U.S. President Barack Obama sent a letter to Russian President Vladimir Putin on July 28, 2014, saying that Moscow was culpable of violating the 1987 Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, a landmark treaty signed by two global elder statesmen--Ronald Reagan and Mikhail Gorbachev--of that era, by conducting tests. Obama called the violation "a very serious matter". The treaty bans all U.S. and Russian land-based ballistic and cruise missiles with ranges between 300 miles and 3,400 miles.
Russia Signs Energy Co-operation Deal with Iran
As western sanctions over Ukrainian crisis began to pinch Russian economy, Moscow was also ready to show the world how to respond to the sanctions using geo-political maneuvers and diplomatic bonhomie. On August 5, 2014, Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak signed a five-year agreement with his Iranian counterpart, Bijan Namdar Zangeneh, to broaden their bilateral energy cooperation.
Russia Hits Back with Its Own Sanctions
Responding to the recent western-imposed economic sanctions targeting a broader swath of its economy by the U.S. and Europe, Russia on August 7, 2014 hit back with some unusual toughness by imposing its own sets of sanctions on imports of food and agricultural products from USA and European Union. Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev made the formal announcement during the day, banning imports of beef, pork, fruit, vegetables and dairy products from the USA, European Union, Canada, Australia and Norway for a year. The import ban is likely to have a minimal impact on US as the US food and agricultural product export to Russia last year was a meager $1.2 billion, less than even 1 percent of total US exports of agricultural products. However, the import ban will have more adverse impact on some EU nations as the imports of agricultural products from the bloc last year stood at $15.8 billion, a share of 10 percent of EU's total exports of agricultural products.
EU Pledges Help to Farmers
European Union on August 18, 2014 announced that it would take measures to minimize the impact of Russian sanctions announced on August 7 on European farmers. The 28-nation bloc will provide $168 million in assistance to help those selling products such as tomatoes, carrots, peppers, apples and pears.
Putin Accuses Washington of Plan to Impose a New World Order
Addressing the annual gathering of Valdai Club, a high-level assembly of international scholars, analysts and academics, at Sochi, Russian President Vladimir Putin said on October 24, 2014 that the USA was on a path to impose its diktat and create a new world order through unilateral actions. The US State Department spokeswoman Jan Psaki added to Putin's charges that US never wanted confrontation, but won't budge down "on the principles on which the security in Europe and North America rest."
**** WARSHIP DIPLOMACY HITS SNAG IN FRENCH-RUSSIAN RELATIONSHIP *****
France Puts on Hold Aircraft Carriers Sale to Russia
As the Russian relations with the west went downhill since its March 2014 annexation of Crimea, so was the lucrative trade deal of France as President Francois Hollande on November 25, 2014 suspended the sale of warship Vladivostok--now docked at the French port-city of Saint-Nazaire, where about 400 Russian sailors had gone through months of training--to Russia as part of a two-part, $1.25 billion deal. Vladivostok can carry 700 sailors, 16 helicopter gunships and up to 50 armored vehicles. A second warship named after the Crimean port city of Sevastopol scheduled to be delivered early next year had arrived at Saint-Nazaire in recent days for finishing touch.
Russian Sailors Return Minus Warships
After weeks of political limbo and diplomatic snafu, hundreds of Russian sailors returned home on December 18, 2014 empty handed. The warship VLADIVOSTOK, a 1-billion euro prize made by France, remained docked at the French port of Saint-Nazaire, reminder of the near collapse of warm trade relations between France and Russia as a consequence of economic sanctions slapped on Moscow to punish Russia's annexation of Crimean Peninsula and stubborn support for rebel forces in Eastern Ukraine. A second warship, SEVASTOPOL, too was floating at the dock and its hand-over to Russia was also uncertain under the shadow of economic sanctions.
Russia, France Settle the Warship Dispute
Both Moscow and Paris on July 30, 2015 agreed to a settlement, kept under the wrap, over a pair of warships that France had refused to hand over to Russia over the civil war in Donbass region in Ukraine and Russian annexation of Crimean Peninsula.
France Sells the Warships to Egypt
After refunding Russia $1 billion for abrogating the deal for two warships, France on September 23, 2015 announced that Egypt would buy those two ships now docked at the French coast.
**** WARSHIP DIPLOMACY HITS SNAG IN FRENCH-RUSSIAN RELATIONSHIP *****
Chechen Rebels Attack Government Buildings in the Regional Capital
In a nerve-wracking attack, several Chechen militants attacked government buildings around 1 AM local time on December 4, 2014, and occupied the 10-storey House of Publishing. It took several hours to clear the capital, Grozny, of militants, and in the process, at least ten police officers and nine militants were killed. The regional head of Chechnya, Ramzan Kadyrov, made the situation look like a simple operation with his comments before the journalists. Kadyrov said that he had returned to the capital from Moscow, overseen the operation to clear Grozny of any remnants of militant threat and gone back on time to Moscow to hear Russian President Vladimir Putin deliver the state of the nation address.
Kremlin Intervenes to Stop Free-Fall of Ruble
Russian currency market went into tailspin on December 16, 2014 with ruble falling to historic low of 80 to the dollar before finishing up the day at 68 to the dollar, leading to the increase in interest rate to 17 percent as a preventive measure to reverse the slide in ruble. Many Russians are bracing for an economic crisis similar to the one that took place in 1998. Many observers attribute ruble's steep decline to multitude of factors including collapse in oil prices, sharp drop in investor confidence in Russian economy and western sanctions imposed after Crimean annexation in March 2014. The ruble has declined almost 50 percent in value since the beginning of the year. Although the Russian Central Bank raised the interest rate to 17 percent, the intervention was not enough to soothe the nerve of Russian people and politicians alike, many of whom want the Central Bank Chairwoman Elvira Nabiullina to go. A similar run on ruble in 2009 was stopped and reversed by interest rate hike by the central bank to 13 percent.
Putin Vows to Shore up Ruble
In the backdrop of falling ruble and collapsing oil prices, Russian President Vladimir Putin, addressing the nation, vowed on December 18, 2014 to reverse the slide of ruble. Putin also said that west won't escape the brunt of fallout from Russian economy significantly weakened by the three-edge sword of western sanctions, rampant corruption and falling oil prices. Putin acknowledged his mistake for not wooing the Russian economy from overdependence on oil. However, on Ukraine, Russian President struck a conciliatory note by recognizing the territorial sovereignty, backing a quick prisoner swap plan and praising his Ukrainian counterpart.
Russian Prosecutors to Ask a 10-Year Term for the Dissident Leader
Russian Prosecutors said on December 19, 2014 that they would ask 10-year and 8-year terms for Alexei Navalny, who had garnered 27.2 percent vote in Moscow Mayoral polls last year, and his brother Oleg Navalny, respectively. Judge Yelena Korobchenko said that she would rule on January 15, 2015 in the case brought by the prosecutors accusing Navalny brothers of stealing more than $500,000 from two firms, including the one that's affiliated with the French cosmetic giant Yves-Rocher although the French company denied such accusation. Alexei became darling of pro-western Russians for his drive to protest against official corruption, and had organized numerous anti-Putin protests in 2011 and 2012. Within a month of government's May 2012 crackdown on the dissidents, Kremlin-backed prosecutors accused Navalny, 38, of several criminal charges.
A New Economic Bloc of Former Soviet Republics Takes Final Shape
In a bid to protect the economic influence and political dominance over the remnant of Soviet Republics which still remained under the shadow of Kremlin, Russian President Vladimir Putin on December 23, 2014 finalized the framework for Eurasian Economic Union consisting of Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Armenia and Kyrgyzstan. The new economic union, scheduled to come into existence on June 1, 2015, will promote:
* Free trade
* A mechanism to co-ordinate members' financial systems
* Regulation of industrial and agricultural policies
* Congenial labor markets and improved transportation network
Putin's New Security Doctrine Considers NATO as Top Threat
Russian President Vladimir Putin on December 26, 2014 signed off the revision of a 2010 security document that would consider, under the revised version, the threat posed by NATO as the gravest threat, implying how Russian approach towards the west had shifted since the Crimean annexation in March. The 29-page document also emphasizes Russian priorities to protect maritime and arctic resources.
Navalny Brothers Get Jail on Corruption Charges
A Moscow court on December 30, 2014 handed out 3-and-half years of imprisonment each to Alexei Navalny and his brother Oleg on corruption charges. Alexie avoided going to jail with a suspended sentence, but his brother was jailed. Later in the evening, Alexie led a small demonstration against Putin at Moscow's Manezh Square.
Putin Prides on Crimean Annexation
Addressing the nation on the eve of the New Year, Russian President Vladimir Putin on December 31, 2014 termed March annexation of Crimea as a "landmark" event for the fatherland. Putin also highlighted the success of Winter Olympic early in the year at Sochi.
Memo Reveals Premeditated Crimea Takeover Plan
A hitherto unknown memo written by a pro-Kremlin oligarch showed a detailed and deliberate plan on seizing Crimean Peninsula instead of official Russian stand that it had seized the peninsula as a response to a crisis that had threatened the very existence of Russian speaking people in the region. In a February 25, 2015, report carried by a renowned Russian independent newspaper, Novaya Gazeta, the memo was quoted to have asked the Russian authorities to take advantage of the unstable situation that had been tearing apart Ukraine with "centrifugal forces". The memo was dated February 4, 2014, more than two weeks before pro-Russian President Viktor Yanukovych had fled the country. The memo was allegedly written by an oligarch, Konstantin Malofeev, who would later fund the pro-Russian separatists in the country's east. The memo rightly predicted the downfall of Yanukovych, Ukraine descending into a state of chaos and emergence of situation rife with conditions that warrant pro-engagement Russian policies. Within hours, a Kremlin representative dismissed the memo as "a hoax".
******* Shocking Assassination of Russian Opposition Leader and Following Events *******
A Prominent Opposition Leader Assassinated
A former vice premier and prominent Putin critic Boris Nemtsov, 55, was shot dead on February 27, 2015 night as he, along with a female companion, 23-year-old Ukrainian model Anna Duritskaya, was walking on the road close to Kremlin. Nemtsov, who had been a governor of Nizhny Novgorod Oblast province before becoming a Deputy Prime Minister during late 90s when Boris Yeltsin was the president, is scheduled to lead a rally against Russian President Vladimir Putin on March 1, 2015. Nemtsov became the last prominent figure to join the ranks of those who had dared to challenge Kremlin in general and Putin in particular and been killed subsequently. Prior to Nemtsov,
(1) Paul Khlebnikov of Forbes was shot in 2004
(2) Anna Politkovskaya, a journalist and a vehement critic of Vladimir Putin's Chechnya policy, was shot in 2006
(3) Natalya Estemirova, a human rights worker, was shot in North Caucasus in 2009
Thousands Mourn the Slain Opposition Leader
Thousands of mourners from across the political spectrum showed up at Moscow on March 1, 2015 to honor the opposition leader Boris Nemtsov, who was assassinated on February 27, 2015 as she took a walk with her female companion, 23-year-old Ukrainian model Anna Duritskaya, on streets not far from Kremlin Walls, and express their outrage at the culture of political revenge through physical harm. Nemtsov was scheduled to lead a rally against Russia's Ukraine policy on March 1, 2015, and instead, the rally became a gathering of tens of thousands to mourn the death of Nemtsov.
Suspects Arrested in Leader's Slaying
Russia's top law enforcement official announced on March 7, 2015 that security forces had arrested two individuals--Zaur Dadayev and Anzor Gubashev--who were involved in February 27, 2015, slaying of Russian opposition leader Boris Nemtsov. Both Dudayev, a Chechen police officer, and Gubashev, a Chechen security guard, were charged on March 8, 2015 at a Moscow court in murder of Nemtsov on February 27, 2015 not far from Kremlin walls. Judge Nataliya Mushnikova said on March 8, 2015 that Dudayev had admitted his involvement in slaying though Gubashev pleaded not guilty. Beside Zaur Dadayev and Anzor Gubashev, three other Chechens were also arrested, and all five were remanded in custody for two months.
Chechen Leader Ties the Opposition Leader's Slaying to His Support for "Charlie Hebdo"
Chechnya's Russian-backed leader Ramzan Kadyrov floated his own rationale on March 9, 2015 for what had caused the killing of Boris Nemtsov, a renowned opposition leader who had taken stand against Russian President Vladimir Putin's Ukraine policy. Kadyrov said that Nemtsov's support for Charlie Hebdo might have infuriated the Chechen police officer Zaur Dadayev, a devout Muslim.
Indictments against Four in Opposition Leader's Death
Russian investigators on December 29, 2015 indicted four people in the February 27, 2015, assassination of opposition leader Boris Nemtsov. Five Chechen men were arrested in the aftermath of the assassination, but it remained unclear who had ordered the assassination of Nemtsov, an ardent critic of Putin's policy.
Marchers Chant against Putin to Mark Anniversary of Assassination
Tens of thousands of demonstrators defied the high-handedness of Kremlin on February 27, 2016 to march on the streets of central Moscow to mark the first anniversary of the assassination of opposition leader Boris Nemtsov. Many of the demonstrators demanded an independent inquiry into the assassination and vowed to carry on the fight.
Five Found Guilty in Nemtsov Assassination
A Russian jury on June 29, 2017 convicted five Chechen men in the February 27, 2015, murder of opposition leader and former first deputy premier Boris Nemtsov in a trial that his family labeled as charade. Nemtsov, 55, was allegedly gunned down by Zaur Dadayev, who had then fled the scene in a car with two other accomplices--Anzor Gubashev and Beslan Shavanov. Shavanov blew himself up with a hand grenade as he was being detained and not part of the trial. Three other accomplices--Shahid Gubashev, Temirlan Eskerkhanov and Khamzat Bakhayev--surveilled over Nemtsov's movement in the four months prior to his assassination.
******* Shocking Assassination of Russian Opposition Leader and Following Events *******
NATO, Russia Trade Barbs
In a rapid spiral of deterioration in relationship, NATO and Russia on March 5, 2015 accused each other of hatching sinister designs to pursue their expansionist policies. Visiting Riga, Latvia, the top U.S. civilian official at NATO, Alexander Vershbow, said on March 5, 2015 that Russia, under Vladimir Putin, became a state that was seeking to
* Re-establish its clout through "redrawing borders by force"
* Develop a "new form of hybrid warfare" by combining
(A) Military intimidation
(B) Disguised intervention
(C) Covert supply of weapons and weapon systems
(D) Economic blackmail
(E) Diplomatic duplicity
(F) Media manipulation, including outright disinformation
* Turn Ukraine into a failed state
* Suppress and discredit alternative voices in Russia
Responding to Vershbow's accusations with a point-by-point rebuttal, Russian Deputy Defense Minister Anatoly Antonov said on March 5, 2015 that it's NATO that was bent on undermining Russia through its actions, including it's February 5, 2015, declaration that called for:
* Increasing the strength of response force from the current level of 13,000 to 30,000
* Creating a new 5,000-strong rapid response force that will be deployed within 24 hours to deter any threat
* Establishing command-and-control centers at capitals of three Baltic states--Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia--as well as Poland, Romania and Bulgaria
* Establishing a new regional headquarters in western Poland to deal with any threat to northeastern Europe
Anti-Fascism Meeting Attended by Right-Wingers
Making travesty to its core of the 70th anniversary of Soviet Union's victory over Nazi Germany, Russian President Vladimir Putin invited political parties from Europe, which were known to have ultra-nationalistic zeal and neo-Nazi political stripe, just to show off west that neither his popularity nor Russia's clout was on the wane despite a grueling economic and trade sanctions imposed by the west. The meeting at St. Petersburg on March 22, 2015 attracted dozens of protesters to show their ire over Putin's decision to invite right wing politicians.
Russia Approves Arms Sales to Iran
Russian President Vladimir Putin on April 13, 2015 approved sales of surface-to-air missiles to Iran. The sales will include S-300 air missiles, and will have a price tag of $800 million.
Putin Accuses USA of Aiding Caucasus' Separatists
In a two-hour new documentary dedicated to Russian President Vladimir Putin's 15 years of leadership as President and Prime Minister of the country and broadcast on April 26, 2015 on the state-owned Rossiya-1 TV channel, Putin pointed the finger of blame at the USA for using the US intelligence office in Azerbaijan in early 2000s to provide support to separatists from the restive Caucasus region.
Kerry Visits Russia, Holds Talks with Putin
After a tense and often acrimonious relation over the past year, Russia and US took a baby step towards a reconciliatory approach, especially in the light of geopolitical, diplomatic and security synergies both nations hold in areas such as Iran's nuclear program, Syrian crisis, counterterrorism and climate change. As part of that, US Secretary of State John Kerry went to Sochi in Russia on May 12, 2015, and held "frank and cordial" talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin for four hours. Kerry also met with his Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov during the day.
Russian Military to Receive 40 Potent Missiles
Opening an arms jamboree at Alabino, just south off Moscow, that intended to showcase the mighty prowess of Russian armed forces, Russian President Vladimir Putin on June 16, 2015 announced that the country's ever-asserting military would receive 40 Inter-Continental Ballistic Missiles (ICBM), an event that would likely to generate another round of arms race in Europe. Putin made a point that these missiles would be able to penetrate any missile defenses. Hours later, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg condemned Russia's move as "nuclear saber-rattling". The US Defense Secretary Ash Carter called it an inappropriate behavior. The Russian moves in recent months made its European neighbors, former Warsaw Block nations and Soviet Republics nervous. The Baltic nations of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia went as far as asking NATO to permanently deploy troops in the region to shield them from an aggressive Russia, and Poland asked NATO to deploy heavy weapons in the country.
Russia Lashes out against EU's Extension of Sanctions
Hours after the European Union Foreign Ministers at a meeting in Luxembourg announced on June 22, 2015 to extend the economic sanctions against Russia through January 2016, Russia decried the move and said that it would retaliate too. EU slapped the economic sanctions last July to punish Russia for its annexation of Crimean Peninsula. Kremlin called the move a new sign of west's anti-Russia bias when it was commemorating the 70th anniversary of the end of World War II.
Russia Adopts Tit-for-Tat Measure; Extends Sanctions for a Year
Responding to EU's June 22, 2015, decision to extend the economic and trade sanctions on Russia through January 2016, Kremlin acted in full vengeance on June 24, 2015, extending its own sanctions, including ban on European food imports, for a year. Russian action came a day after a top American commander in Europe, Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges, Addressing an OSCE (Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe) meeting, said that Russia was "actively and massively fueling" the conflict in Eastern Ukraine.
Russia Lays Claim to Vast Areas of Arctic
Moscow announced on August 4, 2015 that it had turned over ample scientific data to the U.N. a day earlier to prove its sovereignty over 460,000 square miles of Arctic territory that might hold rich wealth of oil, gas, minerals and gems. In addition, Russia's August 3, 2015, official submission to the U.N. staked claim of ownership of the Northern Sea Route, a lucrative sea lane in Arctic area that would cut time of shipping significantly during summer. Russia's previous application in 2002 was rejected by the U.N. because of lack of evidentiary data and supporting information. This time Moscow was very deliberative in submitting its application to lay claim over vast areas of Arctic Sea Shelf, an expanse that contains 5 billion tons of untapped oil and natural gas, estimated to be of worth of $30 trillion, according to the Russian Ministry of Natural Resources. Under the 1982 U.N. Convention on the Law of the Sea, a nation has exclusive authority over a region of 200 nautical miles off its established shorelines. Under the Law of Sea, that limit extends to up to 350 nautical miles off the shorelines in case parts of the continental shelf protrude beyond established shorelines.
************************ POISONING DEATH OF LITVINENKO ********************
British Inquiry Ties Russian Exile's Death to Putin
A decade of an exhaustive inquiry into the poisoning death of Alexander Litvinenko yielded to results that didn't surprise anybody. The inquiry results made public on January 21, 2016 pointed to the approval of the assassination of former KGB operative straight to the highest echelon of Kremlin, thus indirectly implicating Russian President Vladimir Putin. The 328-page report authored by High Court Judge Robert Owen was expansive and elaborative in details, and replete with broad description of events that had unfolded in and around November 1, 2006 when two men, identified as Andrei Lugovoi and Dimitry Kovtun, had lured Litvinenko to the Pine Bar at the Millennium Hotel in Mayfair to discuss on a potential business deal. They mixed radioactive Polonium 210 isotope in the tea that was served to Litvinenko. Litvinenko died days later at a London hospital on November 23, 2006, and laying on the hospital bed, he said that Putin had authorized his killing. The traces of isotope were later found wherever Lgovoi and Kovtun had gone: hotel's bathroom, their hotel room, stadium where they had enjoyed a soccer game and the plane that had ferried them to Russia. However, maximum amount of traces were found in and around the teapot where the three people--Alexander Litvinenko, Andrei Lugovoi and Dimitry Kovtun--had sat on the fateful day. Hours after the release of the report on January 21, 2016, Britain's Home Minister Theresa May summoned the Russian Ambassador, and asked for extradition of Andrei Lugovoi and Dimitry Kovtun to stand trial in Britain. Litvinenko's wife, Marina Litvinenko, on January 21, 2016 called for expulsion of Russian intelligence officials and further sanctions on Russia. Russian reaction to Judge Owen's report was along expected line. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov dismissed "such quasi-investigations" that would "only further poison the atmosphere of our relations". Lugovoi, now a member of parliament, called the inquiry "total lies" and "nonsense", while Kovtun, now a businessman, called the inquiry to be an endeavor based on "falsified and fabricated evidence".
A Brief Preview of Alexander Litvinenko
Litvinenko worked for KGB and its successor organization, FSB, until 1998 when he was fired for holding a news conference where he had complained about the agency and, indirectly, Putin. He defected to Britain two years later in 2000, and worked for MI6, Britain's external spy agency. Alexander Litvinenko also helped in Spanish investigation into Russian mafia.
************************ POISONING DEATH OF LITVINENKO ********************
NATO's Missile Shield Draws Putin's Ire
NATO's missile defense shield, part of which became operational on May 12, 2016 in Romania and the rest slated to become effective in 2018 with the initial groundbreaking work taking place in Poland on May 13, 2016, was blasted by Russian President Vladimir Putin as Putin on May 13, 2016 called the NATO's missile defense system a global security threat.
Western Sanctions May be Faltering
The appetite for continued sanctions against Russia might be going down among some of the European nations after Russia, in response to EU sanctions over Moscow's annexation of Crimea in early 2014, hit back with its own sanctions of imports of meat, vegetables and dairy products from the EU. The latest evidence came as some top EU political leaders and western executives attended this year's St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, also known as Russia's Davos, after staying away from the jamboree past two years. Among the attendees on June 16, 2016 included European Union's Executive Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker, who said that Russia's relations with EU were "not broken beyond repair". Juncker also stressed that "we need to mend it, and I believe we can", while emphasizing on furthering the "very principles of European security" and complying with the Minsk Agreement by both sides of Ukrainian civil war. Despite US government's clear advice, Irving-based Exxon's CEO Rex Tillerson had attended the economic forum.
25th Anniversary of Resistance to Coup Marked
Hundreds of Russians on August 19, 2016 returned to the same place in Moscow, where 25 years ago to this date a pro-Communist coup was launched and a determined pro-democracy crowd led by the then-Russian President Boris Yeltsin had foiled it in a span of next three days, to mark a salient and significant event of the waning days of Soviet history. Hundreds of demonstrators, many of them--now gray-haired--had participated in the uprising against the coup, assembled on August 19, 2016 outside the Russian White House. The coup which had briefly deposed the then-Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev, declaring him ill, lasted only three days and three protesters were killed in the largely bloodless coup.
Russia to Stay put in Syria Indefinitely
Russia's lower house of parliament, or Duma, on October 7, 2016 voted unanimously to keep Russian troops in Syria indefinitely to help Bashar Assad regime. Duma's vote engendered international suspicion about Russia's long-term objective in Syria. For the near future, the airbase at Hemeimeem in Alawite-dominated Latakia province will continue to host Russian troops and support Russian military operation in Syria. An August 2015 agreement between Damascus and Moscow allowed Russia to use the airbase to launch attacks on rebel positions across Syria, reversing the situation on ground in favor of Assad regime from a state of helplessness to the one of ever-expanding military control for the most parts of Syria within a year. In addition to Hemeimeem airbase, Russia has a naval base at the Syrian port of Tartus, only such base outside the former Soviet Union.
Russia to Seek Military Bases in Cuba, Vietnam
As part of the evolving world order that has thrown the post-Cold War era relationship off balance, Russia under President Vladimir Putin is on the hunt for opportunities to establish new military bases on the soil of old allies. As part of that effort, Russia was actively engaging with the governments of Vietnam and Cuba, Russian Deputy Defense Minister Nikolai Pankov told the lawmakers on October 7, 2016, to explore whether to return Russian troops and hardware to them. If Russia is successful to gain foothold in those nations, it will be a remarkable setback to earlier Russian policies to withdraw from those far-flung bases due to the waning danger at that time from the Cold War rivalry made possible by the collapse of the Soviet Union. Russia completed its withdrawal from the Cam Ranh Bay naval base in Vietnam and Lourdes signal intelligence station in Cuba in 2002.
U.S. Accuses Russia of Violating a Nearly Three-Decade-Old Nuclear Treaty
According to an October 19, 2016, The New York Times report, U.S. is concerned over Russia's overt violation of 1987 landmark Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) treaty that bans producing, testing and processing ground-based ballistic or cruise missiles capable of flying 300 to 3400 miles. U.S. lodged its first complaint in July 2014, accusing Moscow of flight-tests that violated INF treaty. At that time, Moscow challenged Washington to come up with evidence of violation, and instead, counter-blamed the USA for violating the treaty itself by flying U.S. armed drones. However, the issue of Russian violation of 1987 INF flared up one more time recently when two key GOP lawmakers--Rep. Mac Thornberry, Chairman of the House Armed Services Committee, and Rep. David Nunes, Chairman of the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence--wrote a letter to the White House, expressing deep concern, leading to a rare call from the USA to convene a meeting of the Special Verification Commission, a panel formed to oversee, or mediate, issued related to INF implementation.
Russia Plans to Withdraw from International Criminal Court
In a proxy against the west, Russian President Vladimir Putin took a parting shot on November 16, 2016 with a symbolic gesture of signing a decree to withdraw Russia from The Hague-based International Criminal Court, joining a list of African nations such as Burundi, Gambia and South Africa that had taken the similar steps to withdraw from ICC. Like the USA, Russia had never ratified the ICC, and henceforth, the action was purely to score political points two days after the international court's chief prosecutor Fatou Bensouda called Russia's presence in Crimea as "ongoing state of occupation".
Europe, U.S. to Continue Sanctions on Russia
U.S. President Barack Obama in his last official foreign visit met with Germany's Angela Merkel, French President Francois Hollande, Italian premier Matteo Renzi and British premier Theresa May at Berlin on November 18, 2016 in a closed-door session focused on Russian sanctions. The leaders decided to continue with the sanctions imposed on Russia for Moscow's annexation of Crimea and support to rebels in eastern Ukraine.
Putin Critic Intends to Run in Presidential Election
Alexei Navalny, an ardent critic of Russian President Vladimir Putin, on December 13, 2016 announced that he would run in 2018 presidential polls. Navalny also said that there was "no true elections in Russia since 1996". However, given the legal shadow looming over Navalny on what many in opposition believe were politically framed charges, it is not certain that Navalny will be able to even launch his long-shot campaign to oust Putin.
Obama Administration Slaps Punitive Actions against Russia
As a punishment to meddling in the U.S. Presidential elections, Obama administration on December 29, 2016 took a flurry of measures that included expelling 35 Russians from the U.S., blacklisting four officials from Russia's military intelligence services, GRU, and imposing sanctions on Russia's two intel agencies, including GRU. In addition, occupants of the two waterfront luxurious properties outside New York City and Washington were ordered to evacuate as, according to the administration, Russian officials used these two properties to meet, brainstorm and plan attacks on the DNC e-mail system.
Putin Refuses to Play Obama's Tit-for-Tat Game
A day after Obama administration ordered 35 Russians out of country, Russian President Vladimir Putin broke away from the Cold War-era "stone-for-stone" diplomacy and instead, took the high moral ground to invite American diplomats and their families on December 30, 2016 for the "New Year and Christmas children's party" in Kremlin. By refusing to carry out his own foreign minister's recommendation to expel equal number of American diplomats, Putin might have scored another political brownie and appeared to have ramming a cleaver through American political system as evident from President-elect Donald Trump's tweet that Putin had acted in a smart way.
Five Russians Slapped with Sanctions
Three days after the U.S. intel agencies directly linked Russian President Vladimir Putin to the meddling in the 2016 U.S. Presidential elections, Barack Obama administration on January 9, 2017 imposed economic sanctions on five Russian officials on unrelated charges. Among the five included Alexander Bastrykin, head of Russia's main investigative agency, who had gone to same university with Putin. Bastrykin's committee gave clean cheat to the authorities over the 2009 death of whistleblower Sergei Magnitsky. With January 9, 2017, punishment against five Russian officials, total number of Russians punished on human rights violation under the so-called Magnitsky Law, enacted in 2012, stood at 44.
Conviction likely to Dim the Hope of Putin Critic
A provincial court at Kirov, 600 miles east of Moscow, on February 8, 2017 convicted the opposition leader Alexi Navalny guilty of corruption over a lumber sale, a charge Navalny rejected several times as a ruse of political witch hunt and deny him from contesting against Putin in 2018 presidential election and sentenced him to six-year suspended sentence. Navalny is entangled in several what critics call them as politically motivated corruption cases. The February 8, 2017, conviction mimicked a conviction handed down by the court in 2013 that was severely criticized by Strasbourg-based European Court of Human Rights as lacking fair hearing.
Russia's U.N. Ambassador Passes away
A towering figure of the U.N. sessions, an unabashed defender of Russia's foreign policies and an avowed advocate of recent years' Russian military aggression in Georgia and Crimea, Vitaly Churkin, a career diplomat and Russia's envoy to U.N., passed away on February 20, 2017 while working at New York. A pall of gloom descended upon the diplomatic corps not only in the USA and beyond.
Opposition Leaders Accuses Premier of Funneling Ill-gotten Wealth
Russia's main opposition leader Alexi Navalny dropped a bombshell on March 2, 2017 by releasing a report and a 50-minute video accusing the country's prime minister, Dmitry Medvedev, of secretly skimming $1 billion in bribes through companies and charities run by his associates to buy expensive properties, yachts and vineyards. Russian authorities quickly dismissed the allegations as a smear by a self-fulfilling politician.
Russian Parliamentarian who Fled the Country Killed
A Russian lawmaker who had fled the country and settled in Kiev was assassinated on a sidewalk on March 23, 2017. Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko accused Russian government operatives of gunning down the vocal anti-Putin lawmaker, Denis Voronenkov. On the same day, an explosion rocked a Ukrainian arms factory near the eastern city of Kharkiv that had made ammunitions and shells flying allover and forced nearly 20,000 residents to evacuate. Poroshenko called the explosion in the defense factory an act of terrorism and said that it was no coincidence that the sabotage and assassination of Voronenkov had been orchestrated on the same day. Russian President Vladimir Putin's spokesman Dmitry Peskov called the allegation by Poroshenko as "absurd".
Russians Protest against Corruption
Russian opposition too splintered and divided even to think of standing up to President Vladimir Putin garnered the rare strength and support on March 26, 2017 to organize demonstrations at dozens of cities to protest what they called as corruption and plundering of massive scale. In Moscow, the main gathering was held in the sprawling Pushkin Square.
Protest Leader Receives 15-day Sentence
The leader of the March 26, 2017, nationwide protest against government corruption was hauled to a Moscow court on March 27, 2017, and Alexi Navalny received 15 days in jail.
Explosion Tears a Subway Train, Kills at least 11
Few hours before the rush hours were about to begin, an explosion rocked a subway train in St. Petersburg area on April 3, 2017, killing at least 11 and wounding more than 40. The point was not missed among the counterterrorism specialists that Russian President Vladimir Putin was visiting his hometown and the explosion might have been carried out to time his visit. At around 2:40PM local time, the train left the sprawling Technology Institute Station and minutes later it tore through the third car as the train was headed to the Sennaya Square Station. A more powerful bomb was found at a nearby station, Vosstaniya Square Station, and the it was defused by the anti-bomb squad.
Suicide Bomber Identified, Accomplices Are being Sought
A day after a suicide bomb rocked a subway train in St. Petersburg area, Russian authorities on April 4, 2017 identified the suicide bomber as 22-year-old Akbarzhon Dhallikov, who had lived in St. Petersburg area for several years and worked various odd jobs such as car repairing and working at a sushi bar. Dhallikov hailed from an ethnic Uzbek family originally from Southern Kyrgyz town of Osh, a place of interethnic violence between Uzbek and Kyrgyz people in 2010 that had resulted in more than 400 deaths.
Eight People Arrested, Police Defuses another Bomb
Three days after a suicide bomber blew up in a subway train, authorities on April 6, 2017 arrested six people in St. Petersburg and two others in Moscow as part of a nationwide crackdown that involved defusing an explosive inside a St. Petersburg apartment.
Protests Organized to Mark the Russia Day
A loose coalition of activists and opposition leaders led by Alexi Navalny on June 12, 2017 held rallies in dozens of cities allover Russia to protest against endemic corruption and expanding autocracy. The choice of Russia Day to protest against Vladimir Putin and his government without raising any inkling was a bold--and largely successful--move by a fragmented opposition. In Moscow, the demonstration was held right at the Red Square, venue for Kremlin's official events. Navalny was arrested as he emerged from his apartment, and sentenced by a court for 30 days. His wife posted a picture of jostling between the security forces and Navalny on Twitter, saying "Happy Russia Day!"
Putin Presides over Destroying Last of Chemical Weaponry; Jabs at Washington
Russian President Vladimir Putin on September 27, 2017 presided over a ceremony that was part PR, part an occasion to criticize the U.S. to mark the destruction of the country's last of chemical weapons as part of 1993 Chemical Weapons Convention. Putin did not lose the opportunity to take a dig at Washington for "not observing the deadline for destroying chemical weapons". The U.S. State Department issued a statement in response, committing to destroying all the chemical weaponry--stored in Pueblo, Colorado and Richmond, KY--by 2023. The convention went into effect in 1997, and the deadline originally was in 2007, that was later extended to 2012. However, both Russia and U.S. fell flat in terms of deadline, but Russia appeared to beat the U.S. in meeting the deadline. Applauding Russia, Hamid Ali Rao, the Deputy Director of the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW), called it a "momentous occasion".
Tit-for-tat Action by Russia to Restrict Foreign Media
In response to recent U.S. Justice Department order for Russia's RT Television to register as a foreign agent, Russian parliament passed measures requiring almost all the western media to register as foreign agents. President Vladimir Putin signed the bill that targeted among others, the U.S.-funded Voice of America and Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, on November 25, 2017.
Putin Opponent Submits Signature to Contest Polls
Alexei Navalny and his supporters on December 24, 2017 submitted hundreds of signatures supporting the candidacy of the most renowned Russian opposition leader to the Russian Election Commission.
Navalny's Candidacy Rejected
Russian Election Commission on December 25, 2017 barred Alexei Navalny from running in the upcoming Russian presidential polls, citing Nalany's conviction in a corruption case. The other candidates who are in the fray includes a 36-year-old popular TV host, Ksenia Sobchak, liberal Grigory Yavlinsky, ultranationalist Vladimir Zhirinovsky and Communist Party candidate Pavel Grudinin.
Russian Supreme Court Upholds Rejection of Navalny Candidacy
Russian Supreme Court on December 30, 2017 rejected an appeal by opposition leader Alexei Navalny's appeal against the Central Election Commission's decision to bar him from the March 2018 presidential polls, paving the way for Vladimir Putin to cruise to an easy victory.
********* NEW START (Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty) Agreement ******
Russia Accuses U.S. of Flouting the Key Agreement
Russia on February 5, 2018 questioned the U.S. compliance with the New START agreement signed in 2010, entered into force a year later and became effective during the day (on February 5, 2018). Russia accused Washington of manipulating the configuration of its current weapons fleet to evade scrutiny while retaining the same lethal powers. The 2010 New START agreement called for each nation to restrict the number of deployed:
* Strategic nuclear warhead to 1,550
* Intercontinental ballistic missiles and strategic bombers to 700
The Russian Foreign Ministry on February 5, 2018 put out its own record of compliance: 1,444 in the first category and 527 in the second category.
Negotiation between U.S.-Russia on Renewal Begins
On June 22, 2020, U.S. and Russian officials held first round of talks on possible renewal of New START agreement at Vienna. U.S. President Donald Trump is all for pulling the plug from the 2010 New START, and as a candidate in 2016 presidential election railed against it by dubbing the treaty another Obama-era disaster. Trump administration wants the agreement to include China too. After the one-day, first-round of talks, U.S. delegation head, Marshall Billingslea, said at Vienna on June 23, 2020 that the discussion was productive, and the meeting had devolved into several working groups in order to delve into detailed granularities of the treaty. The Russian side was headed by the country's deputy foreign minister, Sergei Ryabkov, who upon return to Russia on June 23, 2020 expressed optimism about the future of New START. However, Ryabkov advocated for an automatic five-year extension in the event that no new agreement was reached before the treaty's expiry in early 2021.
RUSSIA
On December 20, 2013, Russia's most famous prisoner Mikhail Khodorkovsky was freed after President Vladimir Putin formally pardoned his political nemesis and archenemy. Immediately the former oil tycoon left for Germany to be on the side of his ailing mother. Kremlin always took a very strong stand against Khodorkovsky for his penchant to criticize Putin and fund the opposition political parties to challenge the monopoly of Putin. Prosecutors accused Khodorkovsky of orchestrating fraud, including tax evasion, in a trial that many westerns had seen as revengeful. In 2003, he was arrested, and his oil company, Yukos Oil Co., was seized by Kremlin, and forced to sell.
Two days after he was set free from a prison in northwest and flew to Berlin, Mikhail Khodorkovsky addressed a room full of reporters at Berlin on December 22, 2013, and said that he would work towards paying down the debt to other political prisoners in Russian jails by seeking their release. However, Khodorkovsky categorically stated that he would not join politics or fund any political parties.
After a landmark Amnesty law on December 19, 2013, Russia's best known political dissident was set free after a decade in jail. To follow up with pre-Christmas good will--dubbed by opponents of President Vladimir Putin as an overt effort to curry favor with the West in the run-up to February 2014 Winter Olympics at Sochi--Kremlin freed two Pussy Riot band members on December 23, 2013. Emerging out of a jail in western Russian city of Nizhny Novgorod, Maria Alekhina criticized the move, and said that she would focus on the rights of country's political prisoners and create a human rights group. A second member of the Pussy Riot band, Nadezhda Tolokonnikova, was set free from a prison at the Siberian city of Krasnoyarsk on December 23. The women had been jailed since March 2012, and would, in any case, have been released in the next three to four months. Both women--Maria Alekhina and Nadezhda Tolokonnikova--along with a third band member, Yekaterina Samutsevich, were charged on hooliganism for staging a protest performance at Moscow's main cathedral that was also targeted, according to many Russians, against the patriarch of the Russian Orthodox Church, Kirill 1. Samutsevich's sentence was later overturned.
On December 24, 2013, Russia continued its streak of amnesty by freeing a Greenpeace activist, Anthony Perrett, who along with 27 other crew members and two freelance journalists were arrested from Arctic Sunrise, a Greenpeace ship that was seized in the arctic water three months ago, and charged initially with piracy only to be downgraded to the lesser charge of hooliganism. Emerging out of the jail, a defiant Perrett issued a statement through Greenpeace that targeted oil companies instead of Russia. The statement included: "The Arctic is melting before our eyes, and yet the oil companies are lining up to profit from its destruction". Now many believe that the amnesty will also expand and cover other Greenpeace crew members. (Source: The Dallas Morning News)
On December 25, 2013, Kremlin dropped hooliganism charges against all but one of 30 members of Greenpeace activists as part of a sweeping amnesty measure. The only remaining Greenpeace activist is most likely to be freed in the coming days.
Showing defiance, two recently freed members of Pussy Riot, Maria Alekhina and Nadezhda Tolokonnikova, flew to Moscow on December 27, 2013, and held a two-hour press conference, vowing to continue struggle to topple President Vladimir Putin. However, Russian society is polarized over the open defiance of Pussy Riot members, especially their use of Orthodox Church premise to speak out against the government.
Prior to Sochi Winter Olympic (February 7-23, 2014), Russia is facing serious challenges from terrorism and violence that is spilling over from the Caucasus regions, epicenter of Islamic radicalism in Russia, to major transportation hub such as Volgograd as evident by two back-to-back suicide bombings in a span of twenty four hours. On December 29, 2013, a suicide bombing at a rail station in the city that had killed at least 17 people. Following day, December 30, 2013, an explosion at a bus in the same city killed at least 14 people. Volgograd, formerly known as Stalingrad, is 550 miles south of Moscow and northwest of Sochi. The twin bombings came months after Chechen rebel leader Doku Umarov called for new attacks against civilian targets in Russia. (Source: The Dallas Morning News)
Russia's Missile Test May be Violation of a Key Treaty
U.S. informed this month that Russia's recent ground-launched cruise missile test might have violated a key 1987 medium-range missile treaty signed by Ronald Reagan and Mikhail Gorbachev. Since May 2013, State Department's senior arms controller Rose Gottemoeller raised Russia's repeated tests that had started in earnest since 2008 with Russian officials several times. Jen Psaki, State Department's spokeswoman said on January 29, 2014 that the "ongoing review process" was being conducted. (Source: The Dallas Morning News)
Putin Critic Put Under House Arrest
On February 28, 2014, a Moscow judge, Judge Artur Karpov, ordered Russian President Vladimir Putin's staunch political critic and ardent blogger Alexei Navalny under house arrest for violating the terms of a travel ban over a pending trial related to an alleged defrauding case. The judge also ordered a total ban on internet and telephone usage, receiving visitors other than family members and speaking with news media. In the run up to Sochi Winter Olympics, according to many western political observers, Putin relaxed clamping down on dissidence and freed well-known prisoners such as two Pussy Riot members as well as his archrival Mikhail Khodorkovsky, but restarted clampdown in the full swing after the Olympics were over.
Chechen Warlord Reported Dead
Although reported dead several times before by police and government officials, this time Caucasus Emirate on March 18, 2014 announced the death news of fearsome Chechen leader Doku Umarov, who had ordered January 2011 bombing of Moscow's Domodedovo Airport that had killed 37 people and March 2010 bombings on Moscow subway that had killed 40 people. (Source: The Dallas Morning News)
Russian President Hosts Q&A Session, Reserves the Right to Defend Russian Speaking People, Fields Question from Snowden
In his annual Q-and-A session televised live on April 17, 2014, Russian President Vladimir Putin defended his right to take measures to protect ethnic Russians and Russian speaking populace in Ukraine's east although he had hoped that such steps would not be necessary. Putin said that he had already received that authority from the upper house of country's parliament, Federation Council. His Q-and-A session also struck the nerve of many critics of Russian president both in Russia and outside for his repeated assertion of Novorossiya, or, New Russia, that refers to Russian Empire in the late 1700s that had stretched to what is now East Ukraine. Putin said during the Q-and-A session that he was not sure why the region was returned to Ukraine in 1920. Also, during the session, President Putin fielded question from the fugitive American NSA contractor Edward Snowden, who had asked Putin whether his country spied on Russians the way US did for its citizens. Putin's answer was: "NO. Thank God, our special services are strictly controlled by the state and society, and their activity is regulated by the law".
Putin to Respect Ukrainian Election Outcome, Embraces Exxon with a Pact to Rebuff Washington
Addressing the International Economic Forum at St. Petersburg on May 23, 2014, Russian President Vladimir Putin assured that he would respect the outcome of the May 25, 2014, Ukrainian presidential polls. The highlight of the conference at St. Petersburg was Putin's emphasis on publicly flaunting a landmark agreement between US oil giant Exxon and Russian oil giant OAO Rosneft CEO Igor Sechin to extend an exploration and production deal in the Arctic and Siberia and liquefying natural gas for export in Russia's Far East. Exxon refused to oblige a U.S. State Department request to skip the conference at St. Petersburg. With 75 billion barrels of reserves at stake, western explorers and oil companies are reluctant to shun Russian theater altogether in the aftermath of sanctions on Russian targets by western nations to punish Moscow's intervention in neighboring Ukraine.
Britain to Launch Inquiry into 2006 Murder of a Former KGB Agent
As if the current European and US actions over unrest in Eastern Ukraine were not enough, British Home Minister Theresa May on July 22, 2014 announced that a public inquiry would be held into November 2006 poison death of Alexander Litvinenko after he drank a cup of tea laced with Polodium-210 Isotope at a London hotel. British authorities subsequently indicted another former KGB officer, Andrei Lugovoi, in Litvinenko's murder, and sought his extradition. Lugovoi, a current member of parliament, denied any role in the murder of Alexander Litvinenko. Russian President Vladimir Putin and Litvinenko parted companies in 1998 after Litvinenko demanded inquiry into corruption charges in the ranks of FSB, successor of KGB. Litvinenko's allegation that there were corruptions irked Vladimir Putin, then head of FSB. Alexander Litvinenko left Russia with his family in 2000, and sought asylum in Britain.
Harsher Sanctions Co-ordinated by USA and Europe Against Russia Amid Intensified Fighting
A cross-Atlantic coordination led to almost simultaneous slapping of a broader sanctions regime against Russia on July 29, 2014. An often reluctant Europe found Russia's increasing belligerence over crisis in Eastern Ukraine unacceptable as in the aftermath of downing of July 17, 2014, Malaysian Airlines Flight 17 Russia's involvement in the crisis became more direct as there were instances of firing artillery from its sides of the borders, re-massing of troops along its borders and shipment of armament. The new set of sanctions targeted more areas in defense, energy and banking sectors. The sanctions include restrictions on exports of western technology crucial for unlocking hard-to-find oil and gas. Referring to the enhanced sanction list, European Council President Herman Van Rompuy and European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso said that they were "meant as a strong warning".
Obama Administration Calls Out Russia's Violation of a 1987 Arms Ban Treaty
In an unrelated, but surely attention-grabbing, action with respect to prevailing tension between Russia and the West--in general, and the USA in particular--over Crimean annexation and conflict in Eastern Ukraine, U.S. President Barack Obama sent a letter to Russian President Vladimir Putin on July 28, 2014, saying that Moscow was culpable of violating the 1987 Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, a landmark treaty signed by two global elder statesmen--Ronald Reagan and Mikhail Gorbachev--of that era, by conducting tests. Obama called the violation "a very serious matter". The treaty bans all U.S. and Russian land-based ballistic and cruise missiles with ranges between 300 miles and 3,400 miles.
Russia Signs Energy Co-operation Deal with Iran
As western sanctions over Ukrainian crisis began to pinch Russian economy, Moscow was also ready to show the world how to respond to the sanctions using geo-political maneuvers and diplomatic bonhomie. On August 5, 2014, Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak signed a five-year agreement with his Iranian counterpart, Bijan Namdar Zangeneh, to broaden their bilateral energy cooperation.
Russia Hits Back with Its Own Sanctions
Responding to the recent western-imposed economic sanctions targeting a broader swath of its economy by the U.S. and Europe, Russia on August 7, 2014 hit back with some unusual toughness by imposing its own sets of sanctions on imports of food and agricultural products from USA and European Union. Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev made the formal announcement during the day, banning imports of beef, pork, fruit, vegetables and dairy products from the USA, European Union, Canada, Australia and Norway for a year. The import ban is likely to have a minimal impact on US as the US food and agricultural product export to Russia last year was a meager $1.2 billion, less than even 1 percent of total US exports of agricultural products. However, the import ban will have more adverse impact on some EU nations as the imports of agricultural products from the bloc last year stood at $15.8 billion, a share of 10 percent of EU's total exports of agricultural products.
EU Pledges Help to Farmers
European Union on August 18, 2014 announced that it would take measures to minimize the impact of Russian sanctions announced on August 7 on European farmers. The 28-nation bloc will provide $168 million in assistance to help those selling products such as tomatoes, carrots, peppers, apples and pears.
Putin Accuses Washington of Plan to Impose a New World Order
Addressing the annual gathering of Valdai Club, a high-level assembly of international scholars, analysts and academics, at Sochi, Russian President Vladimir Putin said on October 24, 2014 that the USA was on a path to impose its diktat and create a new world order through unilateral actions. The US State Department spokeswoman Jan Psaki added to Putin's charges that US never wanted confrontation, but won't budge down "on the principles on which the security in Europe and North America rest."
**** WARSHIP DIPLOMACY HITS SNAG IN FRENCH-RUSSIAN RELATIONSHIP *****
France Puts on Hold Aircraft Carriers Sale to Russia
As the Russian relations with the west went downhill since its March 2014 annexation of Crimea, so was the lucrative trade deal of France as President Francois Hollande on November 25, 2014 suspended the sale of warship Vladivostok--now docked at the French port-city of Saint-Nazaire, where about 400 Russian sailors had gone through months of training--to Russia as part of a two-part, $1.25 billion deal. Vladivostok can carry 700 sailors, 16 helicopter gunships and up to 50 armored vehicles. A second warship named after the Crimean port city of Sevastopol scheduled to be delivered early next year had arrived at Saint-Nazaire in recent days for finishing touch.
Russian Sailors Return Minus Warships
After weeks of political limbo and diplomatic snafu, hundreds of Russian sailors returned home on December 18, 2014 empty handed. The warship VLADIVOSTOK, a 1-billion euro prize made by France, remained docked at the French port of Saint-Nazaire, reminder of the near collapse of warm trade relations between France and Russia as a consequence of economic sanctions slapped on Moscow to punish Russia's annexation of Crimean Peninsula and stubborn support for rebel forces in Eastern Ukraine. A second warship, SEVASTOPOL, too was floating at the dock and its hand-over to Russia was also uncertain under the shadow of economic sanctions.
Russia, France Settle the Warship Dispute
Both Moscow and Paris on July 30, 2015 agreed to a settlement, kept under the wrap, over a pair of warships that France had refused to hand over to Russia over the civil war in Donbass region in Ukraine and Russian annexation of Crimean Peninsula.
France Sells the Warships to Egypt
After refunding Russia $1 billion for abrogating the deal for two warships, France on September 23, 2015 announced that Egypt would buy those two ships now docked at the French coast.
**** WARSHIP DIPLOMACY HITS SNAG IN FRENCH-RUSSIAN RELATIONSHIP *****
Chechen Rebels Attack Government Buildings in the Regional Capital
In a nerve-wracking attack, several Chechen militants attacked government buildings around 1 AM local time on December 4, 2014, and occupied the 10-storey House of Publishing. It took several hours to clear the capital, Grozny, of militants, and in the process, at least ten police officers and nine militants were killed. The regional head of Chechnya, Ramzan Kadyrov, made the situation look like a simple operation with his comments before the journalists. Kadyrov said that he had returned to the capital from Moscow, overseen the operation to clear Grozny of any remnants of militant threat and gone back on time to Moscow to hear Russian President Vladimir Putin deliver the state of the nation address.
Kremlin Intervenes to Stop Free-Fall of Ruble
Russian currency market went into tailspin on December 16, 2014 with ruble falling to historic low of 80 to the dollar before finishing up the day at 68 to the dollar, leading to the increase in interest rate to 17 percent as a preventive measure to reverse the slide in ruble. Many Russians are bracing for an economic crisis similar to the one that took place in 1998. Many observers attribute ruble's steep decline to multitude of factors including collapse in oil prices, sharp drop in investor confidence in Russian economy and western sanctions imposed after Crimean annexation in March 2014. The ruble has declined almost 50 percent in value since the beginning of the year. Although the Russian Central Bank raised the interest rate to 17 percent, the intervention was not enough to soothe the nerve of Russian people and politicians alike, many of whom want the Central Bank Chairwoman Elvira Nabiullina to go. A similar run on ruble in 2009 was stopped and reversed by interest rate hike by the central bank to 13 percent.
Putin Vows to Shore up Ruble
In the backdrop of falling ruble and collapsing oil prices, Russian President Vladimir Putin, addressing the nation, vowed on December 18, 2014 to reverse the slide of ruble. Putin also said that west won't escape the brunt of fallout from Russian economy significantly weakened by the three-edge sword of western sanctions, rampant corruption and falling oil prices. Putin acknowledged his mistake for not wooing the Russian economy from overdependence on oil. However, on Ukraine, Russian President struck a conciliatory note by recognizing the territorial sovereignty, backing a quick prisoner swap plan and praising his Ukrainian counterpart.
Russian Prosecutors to Ask a 10-Year Term for the Dissident Leader
Russian Prosecutors said on December 19, 2014 that they would ask 10-year and 8-year terms for Alexei Navalny, who had garnered 27.2 percent vote in Moscow Mayoral polls last year, and his brother Oleg Navalny, respectively. Judge Yelena Korobchenko said that she would rule on January 15, 2015 in the case brought by the prosecutors accusing Navalny brothers of stealing more than $500,000 from two firms, including the one that's affiliated with the French cosmetic giant Yves-Rocher although the French company denied such accusation. Alexei became darling of pro-western Russians for his drive to protest against official corruption, and had organized numerous anti-Putin protests in 2011 and 2012. Within a month of government's May 2012 crackdown on the dissidents, Kremlin-backed prosecutors accused Navalny, 38, of several criminal charges.
A New Economic Bloc of Former Soviet Republics Takes Final Shape
In a bid to protect the economic influence and political dominance over the remnant of Soviet Republics which still remained under the shadow of Kremlin, Russian President Vladimir Putin on December 23, 2014 finalized the framework for Eurasian Economic Union consisting of Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Armenia and Kyrgyzstan. The new economic union, scheduled to come into existence on June 1, 2015, will promote:
* Free trade
* A mechanism to co-ordinate members' financial systems
* Regulation of industrial and agricultural policies
* Congenial labor markets and improved transportation network
Putin's New Security Doctrine Considers NATO as Top Threat
Russian President Vladimir Putin on December 26, 2014 signed off the revision of a 2010 security document that would consider, under the revised version, the threat posed by NATO as the gravest threat, implying how Russian approach towards the west had shifted since the Crimean annexation in March. The 29-page document also emphasizes Russian priorities to protect maritime and arctic resources.
Navalny Brothers Get Jail on Corruption Charges
A Moscow court on December 30, 2014 handed out 3-and-half years of imprisonment each to Alexei Navalny and his brother Oleg on corruption charges. Alexie avoided going to jail with a suspended sentence, but his brother was jailed. Later in the evening, Alexie led a small demonstration against Putin at Moscow's Manezh Square.
Putin Prides on Crimean Annexation
Addressing the nation on the eve of the New Year, Russian President Vladimir Putin on December 31, 2014 termed March annexation of Crimea as a "landmark" event for the fatherland. Putin also highlighted the success of Winter Olympic early in the year at Sochi.
Memo Reveals Premeditated Crimea Takeover Plan
A hitherto unknown memo written by a pro-Kremlin oligarch showed a detailed and deliberate plan on seizing Crimean Peninsula instead of official Russian stand that it had seized the peninsula as a response to a crisis that had threatened the very existence of Russian speaking people in the region. In a February 25, 2015, report carried by a renowned Russian independent newspaper, Novaya Gazeta, the memo was quoted to have asked the Russian authorities to take advantage of the unstable situation that had been tearing apart Ukraine with "centrifugal forces". The memo was dated February 4, 2014, more than two weeks before pro-Russian President Viktor Yanukovych had fled the country. The memo was allegedly written by an oligarch, Konstantin Malofeev, who would later fund the pro-Russian separatists in the country's east. The memo rightly predicted the downfall of Yanukovych, Ukraine descending into a state of chaos and emergence of situation rife with conditions that warrant pro-engagement Russian policies. Within hours, a Kremlin representative dismissed the memo as "a hoax".
******* Shocking Assassination of Russian Opposition Leader and Following Events *******
A Prominent Opposition Leader Assassinated
A former vice premier and prominent Putin critic Boris Nemtsov, 55, was shot dead on February 27, 2015 night as he, along with a female companion, 23-year-old Ukrainian model Anna Duritskaya, was walking on the road close to Kremlin. Nemtsov, who had been a governor of Nizhny Novgorod Oblast province before becoming a Deputy Prime Minister during late 90s when Boris Yeltsin was the president, is scheduled to lead a rally against Russian President Vladimir Putin on March 1, 2015. Nemtsov became the last prominent figure to join the ranks of those who had dared to challenge Kremlin in general and Putin in particular and been killed subsequently. Prior to Nemtsov,
(1) Paul Khlebnikov of Forbes was shot in 2004
(2) Anna Politkovskaya, a journalist and a vehement critic of Vladimir Putin's Chechnya policy, was shot in 2006
(3) Natalya Estemirova, a human rights worker, was shot in North Caucasus in 2009
Thousands Mourn the Slain Opposition Leader
Thousands of mourners from across the political spectrum showed up at Moscow on March 1, 2015 to honor the opposition leader Boris Nemtsov, who was assassinated on February 27, 2015 as she took a walk with her female companion, 23-year-old Ukrainian model Anna Duritskaya, on streets not far from Kremlin Walls, and express their outrage at the culture of political revenge through physical harm. Nemtsov was scheduled to lead a rally against Russia's Ukraine policy on March 1, 2015, and instead, the rally became a gathering of tens of thousands to mourn the death of Nemtsov.
Suspects Arrested in Leader's Slaying
Russia's top law enforcement official announced on March 7, 2015 that security forces had arrested two individuals--Zaur Dadayev and Anzor Gubashev--who were involved in February 27, 2015, slaying of Russian opposition leader Boris Nemtsov. Both Dudayev, a Chechen police officer, and Gubashev, a Chechen security guard, were charged on March 8, 2015 at a Moscow court in murder of Nemtsov on February 27, 2015 not far from Kremlin walls. Judge Nataliya Mushnikova said on March 8, 2015 that Dudayev had admitted his involvement in slaying though Gubashev pleaded not guilty. Beside Zaur Dadayev and Anzor Gubashev, three other Chechens were also arrested, and all five were remanded in custody for two months.
Chechen Leader Ties the Opposition Leader's Slaying to His Support for "Charlie Hebdo"
Chechnya's Russian-backed leader Ramzan Kadyrov floated his own rationale on March 9, 2015 for what had caused the killing of Boris Nemtsov, a renowned opposition leader who had taken stand against Russian President Vladimir Putin's Ukraine policy. Kadyrov said that Nemtsov's support for Charlie Hebdo might have infuriated the Chechen police officer Zaur Dadayev, a devout Muslim.
Indictments against Four in Opposition Leader's Death
Russian investigators on December 29, 2015 indicted four people in the February 27, 2015, assassination of opposition leader Boris Nemtsov. Five Chechen men were arrested in the aftermath of the assassination, but it remained unclear who had ordered the assassination of Nemtsov, an ardent critic of Putin's policy.
Marchers Chant against Putin to Mark Anniversary of Assassination
Tens of thousands of demonstrators defied the high-handedness of Kremlin on February 27, 2016 to march on the streets of central Moscow to mark the first anniversary of the assassination of opposition leader Boris Nemtsov. Many of the demonstrators demanded an independent inquiry into the assassination and vowed to carry on the fight.
Five Found Guilty in Nemtsov Assassination
A Russian jury on June 29, 2017 convicted five Chechen men in the February 27, 2015, murder of opposition leader and former first deputy premier Boris Nemtsov in a trial that his family labeled as charade. Nemtsov, 55, was allegedly gunned down by Zaur Dadayev, who had then fled the scene in a car with two other accomplices--Anzor Gubashev and Beslan Shavanov. Shavanov blew himself up with a hand grenade as he was being detained and not part of the trial. Three other accomplices--Shahid Gubashev, Temirlan Eskerkhanov and Khamzat Bakhayev--surveilled over Nemtsov's movement in the four months prior to his assassination.
******* Shocking Assassination of Russian Opposition Leader and Following Events *******
NATO, Russia Trade Barbs
In a rapid spiral of deterioration in relationship, NATO and Russia on March 5, 2015 accused each other of hatching sinister designs to pursue their expansionist policies. Visiting Riga, Latvia, the top U.S. civilian official at NATO, Alexander Vershbow, said on March 5, 2015 that Russia, under Vladimir Putin, became a state that was seeking to
* Re-establish its clout through "redrawing borders by force"
* Develop a "new form of hybrid warfare" by combining
(A) Military intimidation
(B) Disguised intervention
(C) Covert supply of weapons and weapon systems
(D) Economic blackmail
(E) Diplomatic duplicity
(F) Media manipulation, including outright disinformation
* Turn Ukraine into a failed state
* Suppress and discredit alternative voices in Russia
Responding to Vershbow's accusations with a point-by-point rebuttal, Russian Deputy Defense Minister Anatoly Antonov said on March 5, 2015 that it's NATO that was bent on undermining Russia through its actions, including it's February 5, 2015, declaration that called for:
* Increasing the strength of response force from the current level of 13,000 to 30,000
* Creating a new 5,000-strong rapid response force that will be deployed within 24 hours to deter any threat
* Establishing command-and-control centers at capitals of three Baltic states--Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia--as well as Poland, Romania and Bulgaria
* Establishing a new regional headquarters in western Poland to deal with any threat to northeastern Europe
Anti-Fascism Meeting Attended by Right-Wingers
Making travesty to its core of the 70th anniversary of Soviet Union's victory over Nazi Germany, Russian President Vladimir Putin invited political parties from Europe, which were known to have ultra-nationalistic zeal and neo-Nazi political stripe, just to show off west that neither his popularity nor Russia's clout was on the wane despite a grueling economic and trade sanctions imposed by the west. The meeting at St. Petersburg on March 22, 2015 attracted dozens of protesters to show their ire over Putin's decision to invite right wing politicians.
Russia Approves Arms Sales to Iran
Russian President Vladimir Putin on April 13, 2015 approved sales of surface-to-air missiles to Iran. The sales will include S-300 air missiles, and will have a price tag of $800 million.
Putin Accuses USA of Aiding Caucasus' Separatists
In a two-hour new documentary dedicated to Russian President Vladimir Putin's 15 years of leadership as President and Prime Minister of the country and broadcast on April 26, 2015 on the state-owned Rossiya-1 TV channel, Putin pointed the finger of blame at the USA for using the US intelligence office in Azerbaijan in early 2000s to provide support to separatists from the restive Caucasus region.
Kerry Visits Russia, Holds Talks with Putin
After a tense and often acrimonious relation over the past year, Russia and US took a baby step towards a reconciliatory approach, especially in the light of geopolitical, diplomatic and security synergies both nations hold in areas such as Iran's nuclear program, Syrian crisis, counterterrorism and climate change. As part of that, US Secretary of State John Kerry went to Sochi in Russia on May 12, 2015, and held "frank and cordial" talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin for four hours. Kerry also met with his Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov during the day.
Russian Military to Receive 40 Potent Missiles
Opening an arms jamboree at Alabino, just south off Moscow, that intended to showcase the mighty prowess of Russian armed forces, Russian President Vladimir Putin on June 16, 2015 announced that the country's ever-asserting military would receive 40 Inter-Continental Ballistic Missiles (ICBM), an event that would likely to generate another round of arms race in Europe. Putin made a point that these missiles would be able to penetrate any missile defenses. Hours later, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg condemned Russia's move as "nuclear saber-rattling". The US Defense Secretary Ash Carter called it an inappropriate behavior. The Russian moves in recent months made its European neighbors, former Warsaw Block nations and Soviet Republics nervous. The Baltic nations of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia went as far as asking NATO to permanently deploy troops in the region to shield them from an aggressive Russia, and Poland asked NATO to deploy heavy weapons in the country.
Russia Lashes out against EU's Extension of Sanctions
Hours after the European Union Foreign Ministers at a meeting in Luxembourg announced on June 22, 2015 to extend the economic sanctions against Russia through January 2016, Russia decried the move and said that it would retaliate too. EU slapped the economic sanctions last July to punish Russia for its annexation of Crimean Peninsula. Kremlin called the move a new sign of west's anti-Russia bias when it was commemorating the 70th anniversary of the end of World War II.
Russia Adopts Tit-for-Tat Measure; Extends Sanctions for a Year
Responding to EU's June 22, 2015, decision to extend the economic and trade sanctions on Russia through January 2016, Kremlin acted in full vengeance on June 24, 2015, extending its own sanctions, including ban on European food imports, for a year. Russian action came a day after a top American commander in Europe, Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges, Addressing an OSCE (Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe) meeting, said that Russia was "actively and massively fueling" the conflict in Eastern Ukraine.
Russia Lays Claim to Vast Areas of Arctic
Moscow announced on August 4, 2015 that it had turned over ample scientific data to the U.N. a day earlier to prove its sovereignty over 460,000 square miles of Arctic territory that might hold rich wealth of oil, gas, minerals and gems. In addition, Russia's August 3, 2015, official submission to the U.N. staked claim of ownership of the Northern Sea Route, a lucrative sea lane in Arctic area that would cut time of shipping significantly during summer. Russia's previous application in 2002 was rejected by the U.N. because of lack of evidentiary data and supporting information. This time Moscow was very deliberative in submitting its application to lay claim over vast areas of Arctic Sea Shelf, an expanse that contains 5 billion tons of untapped oil and natural gas, estimated to be of worth of $30 trillion, according to the Russian Ministry of Natural Resources. Under the 1982 U.N. Convention on the Law of the Sea, a nation has exclusive authority over a region of 200 nautical miles off its established shorelines. Under the Law of Sea, that limit extends to up to 350 nautical miles off the shorelines in case parts of the continental shelf protrude beyond established shorelines.
************************ POISONING DEATH OF LITVINENKO ********************
British Inquiry Ties Russian Exile's Death to Putin
A decade of an exhaustive inquiry into the poisoning death of Alexander Litvinenko yielded to results that didn't surprise anybody. The inquiry results made public on January 21, 2016 pointed to the approval of the assassination of former KGB operative straight to the highest echelon of Kremlin, thus indirectly implicating Russian President Vladimir Putin. The 328-page report authored by High Court Judge Robert Owen was expansive and elaborative in details, and replete with broad description of events that had unfolded in and around November 1, 2006 when two men, identified as Andrei Lugovoi and Dimitry Kovtun, had lured Litvinenko to the Pine Bar at the Millennium Hotel in Mayfair to discuss on a potential business deal. They mixed radioactive Polonium 210 isotope in the tea that was served to Litvinenko. Litvinenko died days later at a London hospital on November 23, 2006, and laying on the hospital bed, he said that Putin had authorized his killing. The traces of isotope were later found wherever Lgovoi and Kovtun had gone: hotel's bathroom, their hotel room, stadium where they had enjoyed a soccer game and the plane that had ferried them to Russia. However, maximum amount of traces were found in and around the teapot where the three people--Alexander Litvinenko, Andrei Lugovoi and Dimitry Kovtun--had sat on the fateful day. Hours after the release of the report on January 21, 2016, Britain's Home Minister Theresa May summoned the Russian Ambassador, and asked for extradition of Andrei Lugovoi and Dimitry Kovtun to stand trial in Britain. Litvinenko's wife, Marina Litvinenko, on January 21, 2016 called for expulsion of Russian intelligence officials and further sanctions on Russia. Russian reaction to Judge Owen's report was along expected line. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov dismissed "such quasi-investigations" that would "only further poison the atmosphere of our relations". Lugovoi, now a member of parliament, called the inquiry "total lies" and "nonsense", while Kovtun, now a businessman, called the inquiry to be an endeavor based on "falsified and fabricated evidence".
A Brief Preview of Alexander Litvinenko
Litvinenko worked for KGB and its successor organization, FSB, until 1998 when he was fired for holding a news conference where he had complained about the agency and, indirectly, Putin. He defected to Britain two years later in 2000, and worked for MI6, Britain's external spy agency. Alexander Litvinenko also helped in Spanish investigation into Russian mafia.
************************ POISONING DEATH OF LITVINENKO ********************
NATO's Missile Shield Draws Putin's Ire
NATO's missile defense shield, part of which became operational on May 12, 2016 in Romania and the rest slated to become effective in 2018 with the initial groundbreaking work taking place in Poland on May 13, 2016, was blasted by Russian President Vladimir Putin as Putin on May 13, 2016 called the NATO's missile defense system a global security threat.
Western Sanctions May be Faltering
The appetite for continued sanctions against Russia might be going down among some of the European nations after Russia, in response to EU sanctions over Moscow's annexation of Crimea in early 2014, hit back with its own sanctions of imports of meat, vegetables and dairy products from the EU. The latest evidence came as some top EU political leaders and western executives attended this year's St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, also known as Russia's Davos, after staying away from the jamboree past two years. Among the attendees on June 16, 2016 included European Union's Executive Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker, who said that Russia's relations with EU were "not broken beyond repair". Juncker also stressed that "we need to mend it, and I believe we can", while emphasizing on furthering the "very principles of European security" and complying with the Minsk Agreement by both sides of Ukrainian civil war. Despite US government's clear advice, Irving-based Exxon's CEO Rex Tillerson had attended the economic forum.
25th Anniversary of Resistance to Coup Marked
Hundreds of Russians on August 19, 2016 returned to the same place in Moscow, where 25 years ago to this date a pro-Communist coup was launched and a determined pro-democracy crowd led by the then-Russian President Boris Yeltsin had foiled it in a span of next three days, to mark a salient and significant event of the waning days of Soviet history. Hundreds of demonstrators, many of them--now gray-haired--had participated in the uprising against the coup, assembled on August 19, 2016 outside the Russian White House. The coup which had briefly deposed the then-Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev, declaring him ill, lasted only three days and three protesters were killed in the largely bloodless coup.
Russia to Stay put in Syria Indefinitely
Russia's lower house of parliament, or Duma, on October 7, 2016 voted unanimously to keep Russian troops in Syria indefinitely to help Bashar Assad regime. Duma's vote engendered international suspicion about Russia's long-term objective in Syria. For the near future, the airbase at Hemeimeem in Alawite-dominated Latakia province will continue to host Russian troops and support Russian military operation in Syria. An August 2015 agreement between Damascus and Moscow allowed Russia to use the airbase to launch attacks on rebel positions across Syria, reversing the situation on ground in favor of Assad regime from a state of helplessness to the one of ever-expanding military control for the most parts of Syria within a year. In addition to Hemeimeem airbase, Russia has a naval base at the Syrian port of Tartus, only such base outside the former Soviet Union.
Russia to Seek Military Bases in Cuba, Vietnam
As part of the evolving world order that has thrown the post-Cold War era relationship off balance, Russia under President Vladimir Putin is on the hunt for opportunities to establish new military bases on the soil of old allies. As part of that effort, Russia was actively engaging with the governments of Vietnam and Cuba, Russian Deputy Defense Minister Nikolai Pankov told the lawmakers on October 7, 2016, to explore whether to return Russian troops and hardware to them. If Russia is successful to gain foothold in those nations, it will be a remarkable setback to earlier Russian policies to withdraw from those far-flung bases due to the waning danger at that time from the Cold War rivalry made possible by the collapse of the Soviet Union. Russia completed its withdrawal from the Cam Ranh Bay naval base in Vietnam and Lourdes signal intelligence station in Cuba in 2002.
U.S. Accuses Russia of Violating a Nearly Three-Decade-Old Nuclear Treaty
According to an October 19, 2016, The New York Times report, U.S. is concerned over Russia's overt violation of 1987 landmark Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) treaty that bans producing, testing and processing ground-based ballistic or cruise missiles capable of flying 300 to 3400 miles. U.S. lodged its first complaint in July 2014, accusing Moscow of flight-tests that violated INF treaty. At that time, Moscow challenged Washington to come up with evidence of violation, and instead, counter-blamed the USA for violating the treaty itself by flying U.S. armed drones. However, the issue of Russian violation of 1987 INF flared up one more time recently when two key GOP lawmakers--Rep. Mac Thornberry, Chairman of the House Armed Services Committee, and Rep. David Nunes, Chairman of the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence--wrote a letter to the White House, expressing deep concern, leading to a rare call from the USA to convene a meeting of the Special Verification Commission, a panel formed to oversee, or mediate, issued related to INF implementation.
Russia Plans to Withdraw from International Criminal Court
In a proxy against the west, Russian President Vladimir Putin took a parting shot on November 16, 2016 with a symbolic gesture of signing a decree to withdraw Russia from The Hague-based International Criminal Court, joining a list of African nations such as Burundi, Gambia and South Africa that had taken the similar steps to withdraw from ICC. Like the USA, Russia had never ratified the ICC, and henceforth, the action was purely to score political points two days after the international court's chief prosecutor Fatou Bensouda called Russia's presence in Crimea as "ongoing state of occupation".
Europe, U.S. to Continue Sanctions on Russia
U.S. President Barack Obama in his last official foreign visit met with Germany's Angela Merkel, French President Francois Hollande, Italian premier Matteo Renzi and British premier Theresa May at Berlin on November 18, 2016 in a closed-door session focused on Russian sanctions. The leaders decided to continue with the sanctions imposed on Russia for Moscow's annexation of Crimea and support to rebels in eastern Ukraine.
Putin Critic Intends to Run in Presidential Election
Alexei Navalny, an ardent critic of Russian President Vladimir Putin, on December 13, 2016 announced that he would run in 2018 presidential polls. Navalny also said that there was "no true elections in Russia since 1996". However, given the legal shadow looming over Navalny on what many in opposition believe were politically framed charges, it is not certain that Navalny will be able to even launch his long-shot campaign to oust Putin.
Obama Administration Slaps Punitive Actions against Russia
As a punishment to meddling in the U.S. Presidential elections, Obama administration on December 29, 2016 took a flurry of measures that included expelling 35 Russians from the U.S., blacklisting four officials from Russia's military intelligence services, GRU, and imposing sanctions on Russia's two intel agencies, including GRU. In addition, occupants of the two waterfront luxurious properties outside New York City and Washington were ordered to evacuate as, according to the administration, Russian officials used these two properties to meet, brainstorm and plan attacks on the DNC e-mail system.
Putin Refuses to Play Obama's Tit-for-Tat Game
A day after Obama administration ordered 35 Russians out of country, Russian President Vladimir Putin broke away from the Cold War-era "stone-for-stone" diplomacy and instead, took the high moral ground to invite American diplomats and their families on December 30, 2016 for the "New Year and Christmas children's party" in Kremlin. By refusing to carry out his own foreign minister's recommendation to expel equal number of American diplomats, Putin might have scored another political brownie and appeared to have ramming a cleaver through American political system as evident from President-elect Donald Trump's tweet that Putin had acted in a smart way.
Five Russians Slapped with Sanctions
Three days after the U.S. intel agencies directly linked Russian President Vladimir Putin to the meddling in the 2016 U.S. Presidential elections, Barack Obama administration on January 9, 2017 imposed economic sanctions on five Russian officials on unrelated charges. Among the five included Alexander Bastrykin, head of Russia's main investigative agency, who had gone to same university with Putin. Bastrykin's committee gave clean cheat to the authorities over the 2009 death of whistleblower Sergei Magnitsky. With January 9, 2017, punishment against five Russian officials, total number of Russians punished on human rights violation under the so-called Magnitsky Law, enacted in 2012, stood at 44.
Conviction likely to Dim the Hope of Putin Critic
A provincial court at Kirov, 600 miles east of Moscow, on February 8, 2017 convicted the opposition leader Alexi Navalny guilty of corruption over a lumber sale, a charge Navalny rejected several times as a ruse of political witch hunt and deny him from contesting against Putin in 2018 presidential election and sentenced him to six-year suspended sentence. Navalny is entangled in several what critics call them as politically motivated corruption cases. The February 8, 2017, conviction mimicked a conviction handed down by the court in 2013 that was severely criticized by Strasbourg-based European Court of Human Rights as lacking fair hearing.
Russia's U.N. Ambassador Passes away
A towering figure of the U.N. sessions, an unabashed defender of Russia's foreign policies and an avowed advocate of recent years' Russian military aggression in Georgia and Crimea, Vitaly Churkin, a career diplomat and Russia's envoy to U.N., passed away on February 20, 2017 while working at New York. A pall of gloom descended upon the diplomatic corps not only in the USA and beyond.
Opposition Leaders Accuses Premier of Funneling Ill-gotten Wealth
Russia's main opposition leader Alexi Navalny dropped a bombshell on March 2, 2017 by releasing a report and a 50-minute video accusing the country's prime minister, Dmitry Medvedev, of secretly skimming $1 billion in bribes through companies and charities run by his associates to buy expensive properties, yachts and vineyards. Russian authorities quickly dismissed the allegations as a smear by a self-fulfilling politician.
Russian Parliamentarian who Fled the Country Killed
A Russian lawmaker who had fled the country and settled in Kiev was assassinated on a sidewalk on March 23, 2017. Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko accused Russian government operatives of gunning down the vocal anti-Putin lawmaker, Denis Voronenkov. On the same day, an explosion rocked a Ukrainian arms factory near the eastern city of Kharkiv that had made ammunitions and shells flying allover and forced nearly 20,000 residents to evacuate. Poroshenko called the explosion in the defense factory an act of terrorism and said that it was no coincidence that the sabotage and assassination of Voronenkov had been orchestrated on the same day. Russian President Vladimir Putin's spokesman Dmitry Peskov called the allegation by Poroshenko as "absurd".
Russians Protest against Corruption
Russian opposition too splintered and divided even to think of standing up to President Vladimir Putin garnered the rare strength and support on March 26, 2017 to organize demonstrations at dozens of cities to protest what they called as corruption and plundering of massive scale. In Moscow, the main gathering was held in the sprawling Pushkin Square.
Protest Leader Receives 15-day Sentence
The leader of the March 26, 2017, nationwide protest against government corruption was hauled to a Moscow court on March 27, 2017, and Alexi Navalny received 15 days in jail.
Explosion Tears a Subway Train, Kills at least 11
Few hours before the rush hours were about to begin, an explosion rocked a subway train in St. Petersburg area on April 3, 2017, killing at least 11 and wounding more than 40. The point was not missed among the counterterrorism specialists that Russian President Vladimir Putin was visiting his hometown and the explosion might have been carried out to time his visit. At around 2:40PM local time, the train left the sprawling Technology Institute Station and minutes later it tore through the third car as the train was headed to the Sennaya Square Station. A more powerful bomb was found at a nearby station, Vosstaniya Square Station, and the it was defused by the anti-bomb squad.
Suicide Bomber Identified, Accomplices Are being Sought
A day after a suicide bomb rocked a subway train in St. Petersburg area, Russian authorities on April 4, 2017 identified the suicide bomber as 22-year-old Akbarzhon Dhallikov, who had lived in St. Petersburg area for several years and worked various odd jobs such as car repairing and working at a sushi bar. Dhallikov hailed from an ethnic Uzbek family originally from Southern Kyrgyz town of Osh, a place of interethnic violence between Uzbek and Kyrgyz people in 2010 that had resulted in more than 400 deaths.
Eight People Arrested, Police Defuses another Bomb
Three days after a suicide bomber blew up in a subway train, authorities on April 6, 2017 arrested six people in St. Petersburg and two others in Moscow as part of a nationwide crackdown that involved defusing an explosive inside a St. Petersburg apartment.
Protests Organized to Mark the Russia Day
A loose coalition of activists and opposition leaders led by Alexi Navalny on June 12, 2017 held rallies in dozens of cities allover Russia to protest against endemic corruption and expanding autocracy. The choice of Russia Day to protest against Vladimir Putin and his government without raising any inkling was a bold--and largely successful--move by a fragmented opposition. In Moscow, the demonstration was held right at the Red Square, venue for Kremlin's official events. Navalny was arrested as he emerged from his apartment, and sentenced by a court for 30 days. His wife posted a picture of jostling between the security forces and Navalny on Twitter, saying "Happy Russia Day!"
Putin Presides over Destroying Last of Chemical Weaponry; Jabs at Washington
Russian President Vladimir Putin on September 27, 2017 presided over a ceremony that was part PR, part an occasion to criticize the U.S. to mark the destruction of the country's last of chemical weapons as part of 1993 Chemical Weapons Convention. Putin did not lose the opportunity to take a dig at Washington for "not observing the deadline for destroying chemical weapons". The U.S. State Department issued a statement in response, committing to destroying all the chemical weaponry--stored in Pueblo, Colorado and Richmond, KY--by 2023. The convention went into effect in 1997, and the deadline originally was in 2007, that was later extended to 2012. However, both Russia and U.S. fell flat in terms of deadline, but Russia appeared to beat the U.S. in meeting the deadline. Applauding Russia, Hamid Ali Rao, the Deputy Director of the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW), called it a "momentous occasion".
Tit-for-tat Action by Russia to Restrict Foreign Media
In response to recent U.S. Justice Department order for Russia's RT Television to register as a foreign agent, Russian parliament passed measures requiring almost all the western media to register as foreign agents. President Vladimir Putin signed the bill that targeted among others, the U.S.-funded Voice of America and Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, on November 25, 2017.
Putin Opponent Submits Signature to Contest Polls
Alexei Navalny and his supporters on December 24, 2017 submitted hundreds of signatures supporting the candidacy of the most renowned Russian opposition leader to the Russian Election Commission.
Navalny's Candidacy Rejected
Russian Election Commission on December 25, 2017 barred Alexei Navalny from running in the upcoming Russian presidential polls, citing Nalany's conviction in a corruption case. The other candidates who are in the fray includes a 36-year-old popular TV host, Ksenia Sobchak, liberal Grigory Yavlinsky, ultranationalist Vladimir Zhirinovsky and Communist Party candidate Pavel Grudinin.
Russian Supreme Court Upholds Rejection of Navalny Candidacy
Russian Supreme Court on December 30, 2017 rejected an appeal by opposition leader Alexei Navalny's appeal against the Central Election Commission's decision to bar him from the March 2018 presidential polls, paving the way for Vladimir Putin to cruise to an easy victory.
********* NEW START (Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty) Agreement ******
Russia Accuses U.S. of Flouting the Key Agreement
Russia on February 5, 2018 questioned the U.S. compliance with the New START agreement signed in 2010, entered into force a year later and became effective during the day (on February 5, 2018). Russia accused Washington of manipulating the configuration of its current weapons fleet to evade scrutiny while retaining the same lethal powers. The 2010 New START agreement called for each nation to restrict the number of deployed:
* Strategic nuclear warhead to 1,550
* Intercontinental ballistic missiles and strategic bombers to 700
The Russian Foreign Ministry on February 5, 2018 put out its own record of compliance: 1,444 in the first category and 527 in the second category.
Negotiation between U.S.-Russia on Renewal Begins
On June 22, 2020, U.S. and Russian officials held first round of talks on possible renewal of New START agreement at Vienna. U.S. President Donald Trump is all for pulling the plug from the 2010 New START, and as a candidate in 2016 presidential election railed against it by dubbing the treaty another Obama-era disaster. Trump administration wants the agreement to include China too. After the one-day, first-round of talks, U.S. delegation head, Marshall Billingslea, said at Vienna on June 23, 2020 that the discussion was productive, and the meeting had devolved into several working groups in order to delve into detailed granularities of the treaty. The Russian side was headed by the country's deputy foreign minister, Sergei Ryabkov, who upon return to Russia on June 23, 2020 expressed optimism about the future of New START. However, Ryabkov advocated for an automatic five-year extension in the event that no new agreement was reached before the treaty's expiry in early 2021.
New
START Talks at a Standstill in the midst of Confusion
As Russia
and U.S. are heading to a February 2021 deadline for New START agreement’s
expiry and many international arms control advocates are clamoring, at the bare
minimum, for extension of current framework to give parties leeway to work out
a new treaty, both Trump and Putin are playing a game of nuclear brinkmanship.
On October 16, 2020, Russian President Vladimir Putin called for unconditional
extension of New START only to be rebuffed by the U.S. as a “nonstarter”.
U.S. National Security Adviser Robert O’Brien added fuel to fire by
threatening a “costly arms race”. The key contention in the on-and-off talks
between the U.S. and Russian officials relates to term of extension of the
current agreement beyond February 2021. Washington recently proposed a
year-long extension, but attached that with a condition that would cap overall nuclear
warheads irrespective of they being under the purview of current agreement or
not. In the run-up to a contentious presidential election, Donald Trump is
seeking foreign policy victory such as negotiating a new deal to replace New
START. Trump’s opponent, Former Vice President Joe Biden, negotiated
the New START, and said that he would not hesitate to accept Russian
President Vladimir Putin’s original proposal to extend the agreement for
five years while the discussion on coming up with a new deal would proceed. Trump
administration’s arms control point-person, Marshall Billingslea, called
the Russian rejection of USA’s conditional 1-year extension of the current
treaty as a missed opportunity. Marshall Billingslea even went as far as
to suggest that there was even an agreement to extend the treaty by one year
with condition attached having an overall cap on the number of total nuclear
warheads, and labeled Russian action as backtracking “on an agreement”, drawing
a Russian rebuke that there was no such agreement at the first place. Russia
wants an unconditional extension of the treaty by a year.
New
START: Russia, U.S. Near an Extension Treaty
Ice
was broken on October 20, 2020 over the stalled negotiation of New START
agreement as Moscow agreed during the day a key U.S. condition for extending
the treaty for a year beyond its February 2021 expiry date. Trump
administration initially demanded that China be included in the treaty, but
later changed its stance to pivot on extending the treaty for one year in
exchange for an overall cap on battlefield warheads, including the ones not
covered by New START. Russia initially balked, but on October 20,
2020 Russian Foreign Ministry agreed to the condition, paving the way for a
deal to renew the New START agreement in the coming days. U.S. State Department
spokeswoman Morgan Ortagus welcomed Russia’s stance, and expressed hope to
have both nations to sign a treaty soon to extend the New START agreement.
Biden Administration Offers to Extend New START for Five Years
Biden administration on January 21, 2021 offered Russia to extend the last nuclear treaty between Russia and the U.S., New START, for five years that would give a broader leeway to both nations to prepare and engage in talks. The landmark strategic arms reduction treaty is to expire on February 5, 2021. Joe Biden's National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan is to convey the offer to Russian ambassador later in the day, according to media reports. When New START was signed in 2010, many in Congress and defense department saw that as opportunity to cut down the level of nuclear weapons for the long-term adversaries, but there was also push to invest as much as $1 trillion in funding to modernize the three legs of U.S.' defense triad: (1) ballistic missile submarines, (2) nuclear bomber aircraft, and (3) land-based nuclear missiles. However, much of the upgrade is yet to be done. Biden administration's job will be tougher going forward as Russia is building much of its deterrent power based on new class of weapons such as nuclear-powered Avanguard hypersonic long-range missiles not covered by New START.
Russia Welcomes Biden's Offer to Extend Treaty
Russia on January 22, 2021 welcomed the offer by the U.S. to extend the New START for another five years. The spokesperson for Russian President Vladimir Putin, Dmitry Peskov, said during the day that Moscow was waiting to see the details in the offer. Also, U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres welcomed during the day Biden administration's proposal to extend the New START and Russian response.
Russia, U.S. Exchange Docs as Putin, Biden Talk over Phone
The very day that Russian President Vladimir Putin and U.S. President Joe Biden held phone call for the first time since a new administration in Washington was sworn in also marked the first opening of a logjam in trying to move forward and give another bout of life to the last remaining nuclear arms reduction treaty as Moscow and Washington on January 26, 2021 shared documentation of New START. Now, the negotiation will begin in earnest to renew the landmark treaty for another five years before February 5, 2021, expiry date.
Putin Signs New START Extension Passed by Russian Parliament
A day after Presidents Joe Biden and Vladimir Putin held their first talks after the inauguration of the 46th President of the U.S., Russia's both houses of parliament passed a measure unanimously on January 27, 2021 to extend the New START for five years. Extension of the last remaining major defense treaty between the U.S. and Russia doesn't require ratification of the U.S. Congress, but needs the nod from Russian parliament. Russian President Vladimir Putin signed the extension bill on January 29, 2021. The New START was signed in 2010 by the then-U.S. President Barack Obama and the then-Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, and envisaged (A) capping the deployed nuclear warheads to 1,550 for each nation, (B) for each nation, to have at most 700 deployed missiles and bombers, and (C) a robust on-site inspection regime to verify compliance.
New START Renewal Goes into Effect
Two days before a deadline, a five-year renewal of the New START went into effect on February 3, 2021. U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken praised the renewal as a safety net against an "unconstrained nuclear competition".
Russia Suspends NEW START, only Nuclear Treaty Still Left Intact
Russian President Vladimir Putin in the state of the union address to Russians
on February 21, 2023 bragged that Russia was on the right path of the
history and accused west of undermining both Kremlin and Kyiv. What he also
added raised consternation among nuclear watchdogs and peace-loving people of
the world. Putin said that he was suspending Russia’s participation in the 2010
NEW START nuclear agreement. Although it is short of withdrawal from the only
nuclear treaty still standing, it nonetheless represents a major setback to the
international arms control regime. U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken
called Russian action “deeply unfortunate and irresponsible”. NATO chief
Jens Stoltenberg said that Russian action “makes the world more dangerous”.
U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres called for both the U.S. and
Russia to return to negotiating table.
U.S. Ready to Begin Talking with Russia Unconditionally on NEW START
After Russian President Vladimir Putin on February 21, 2023 partially
suspended cooperating on NEW START nuclear agreement, the world had been
at the teetering end of what had been the last nuclear treaty between Russia
and the United States just nominally standing as Ukrainian War took the center
stage in redefining the west-Russia relationship. Although Russia suspended the
nuclear warhead and missile inspections component of the treaty, Moscow said
that it would respect the cap on nuclear weapons.
Addressing the annual meeting of Arms Control Association, White
House National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan on June 2, 2023 said that U.S.
was ready to talk to Moscow unconditionally on a new nuclear agreement
framework as it was taking countermeasures against Russia’s unilateral suspension
of key provisions of NEW START agreement.
********* NEW START (Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty) Agreement ******
Putin Boasts of "Invisible" Weapons
Giving the state of the union address barely three weeks before the presidential election in which he's expected to be re-elected with a thumping majority, Vladimir Putin on March 1, 2018 boastfully announced that Moscow had carried out a successful test of a new rocket-propulsion system that might one day launch missiles and under-water drones to ranges longer than any previous ones and virtually undetected by any existing missile defense system. Putin also issued a not so veiled threat to the west that any nuclear attack on its allies would be treated an the one on itself and would not go unanswered.
********* NEW START (Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty) Agreement ******
Putin Boasts of "Invisible" Weapons
Giving the state of the union address barely three weeks before the presidential election in which he's expected to be re-elected with a thumping majority, Vladimir Putin on March 1, 2018 boastfully announced that Moscow had carried out a successful test of a new rocket-propulsion system that might one day launch missiles and under-water drones to ranges longer than any previous ones and virtually undetected by any existing missile defense system. Putin also issued a not so veiled threat to the west that any nuclear attack on its allies would be treated an the one on itself and would not go unanswered.
*********************** ATTACK ON FORMER RUSSIAN SPY *********************
Former Double Spy Hospitalized in Suspected Chemical Attack
Reminiscing the poison attack on Alexander Litvinenko, Britain faced a day reckoning more than a decade later when former Russian spy Sergei Skripal, 66, and his daughter, Yulia, 33, were found unconscious in a Salisbury park on March 4, 2018. Both of them, suspected to have come in contact with a hazardous chemical, were hospitalized in a critical condition. Sergei Skripal was tried in Russia in 2006 and sentenced to 13 years of imprisonment for spying for Britain, but released in 2010 as part of a U.K.-Russia spy swap deal.
British Foreign Minister Calls Russia a "Malign Force"
Speaking in the House of Commons, British Foreign Minister Boris Johnson said on March 6, 2018 that although he was not sure who had carried out the March 4, 2018, attack against former Russian double agent Sergei Skripal, 66, and his daughter, Yulia, 33, at a park in Salisbury, 85 miles southwest of London, the speculation was rife with a possible Russia-organized attack. Johnson warned Moscow that Britain would respond accordingly if it was proven that Russia had carried out the attack. Meanwhile, Wiltshire County, where Salisbury is located, officials said on March 6, 2018 that all the emergency responders had been assessed for medical conditions in hospital, and all but one of the first responders had been released.
*********************** ATTACK ON FORMER RUSSIAN SPY *********************
To the surprise of none, President Vladimir Putin swept in the March 18, 2018, presidential polls, garnering almost 77 percent vote. The second-place finisher was Communist Party candidate Pavel Grudinin (12 percent), followed by Vladimir Zhirinovsky (6 percent). Turnout was 67.5 percent, an increase of 2.29 percent.
Trump Congratulates Putin
On March 20, 2018, U.S. President Donald Trump called Russian President Vladimir Putin to congratulate him on his sweeping victory in the presidential election two days ago, attracting a bipartisan ire. Republican Senators John McCain and Jeff Flake slammed Trump for making the congratulatory calls to Putin.
Trump Reportedly Invited Putin for a State Visit
During his March 20, 2018, congratulatory phone call, Donald Trump invited Vladimir Putin for a state visit to Washington D.C. This was not made public by the White House, rather it came to public's notice on April 2, 2018 as a Kremlin foreign policy adviser, Yuri Ushakov, reportedly said what had stemmed from the conversation.
Chinese, Russian Diplomats Assail USA
Foreign ministers of Russia and China met on April 5, 2018 at Moscow to strengthen bilateral relationship in the wake of what Wang Yi and Sergey Lavrov called USA's increased unilateralism in global affair, especially on the tariffs recently imposed by Trump administration.
Putin Sworn in as President for Fourth Term
Vladimir Putin on May 7, 2018 received the unique mantle of ruling a politically resurgent, but economically struggling, Russia for the fourth term.
Russia Test-fires Four Long-range Missiles Simultaneously
On May 22, 2018, Russia added an additional galore in its impressive recent effort of weapons modernization drive by successfully test-firing four intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBM) from one side of its time zone to the other side of the time zone in an immaculate precision. One of three new Borei-class submarines, Yuri Dolgoruki, named after a medieval prince who had founded Moscow, was used to launch four Bulava missiles in a single salvo from the submerged vessel in the White Sea. The missiles, having a range of 5,770 miles, reached with their payload to the target on the other side of the country, the Kura shooting range on the far-eastern peninsula of Kamchatka.
Putin Critic Arrested Minutes after Release
President Vladimir Putin's fiercest critic Alexie Navalny was re-arrested on September 24, 2018 after completing a 30-day sentence for an additional 20 days behind the bar for organizing a separate unauthorized rally that had caused bodily harm to law enforcement personnel.
********************************** INF TREATY *********************************
Putin Threatens Europe if It Hosts Banned U.S. Intermediate-Range Missiles
After the weekend decision by Trump administration to pull from a landmark 1987 Soviet-U.S. treaty, Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, that banned all ground-based short- and intermediate-range missiles for what it alleged that Russia was cheating on the agreement, Russian President Vladimir Putin on October 24, 2018 issued not-so veiled threat to European nations if it allowed U.S. to deploy any short- or medium-range missiles. NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg dismissed Russian concern on October 24, 2018 and said that any European nation was likely to host any U.S. intermediate- and short-range missiles. U.S. alleged that Russia had cheated on the 1987 agreement by deploying the so-called SSC-8 missiles. Under the treaty signed in 1987 by the former U.S. President Ronald Reagan and the then-Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev, all land-based cruise or ballistic missiles with ranges between 311 and 3,420 miles were banned.
Trump Urged to Stay in the Key Treaty
Former Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev who had inked the historic Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty in 1987 pleaded with Donald Trump on November 8, 2018 not to withdraw from the landmark treaty that had helped the world in the path to "continue the nuclear disarmament". Gorbachev's prodding, made at a film premiere in Moscow, came in the same week as two letters signed by the former government officials and academics called for Trump to stay in the treaty.
*One letter signed by more than a dozen prominent figures, including former Secretary of State George P. Schultz and former Senators Richard Lugar and Sam Nunn and sent to the White House on November 7, 2018 underlined the importance of how the "INF Treaty has prevented the unchecked deployment of nuclear missiles in Europe".
* A second letter dated November 6, 2018 and sent by the American College of National Security Leaders underlined that the "INF Treaty is a bedrock to our current arms control regime and serves rather than hampers American interests".
Key Russian Legislative Leader Threatens West if U.S. Withdraws from the INF Treaty
The head of the foreign affairs committee in the upper house of the Russian parliament, Konstantin Kosachev, said on November 22, 2018 that if Washington withdrew from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty, Russia would deploy missiles in the allied nations in Europe, issuing a not-so-veiled threat to U.S. and west about the consequence of the Trump administration's action. Under the 1987 landmark treaty, U.S. and Russia are prohibited from deploying, testing and producing ground-based cruise and ballistic missiles with 500- to 5,500-kilometer range.
Trump Administration Sends Formal Notice to Withdraw from INF
Trump administration, defying calls from bipartisan security experts, issued a formal notice on February 1, 2019 that it would officially withdraw from the 1987 Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty unless Russia came to full compliance with it.
Russia Withdraws from the 1987 INF Treaty
A day after U.S. President Donald Trump officially withdrew the country from the 1987 Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty, citing cheating by Moscow with "impunity", Russian President Vladimir Putin followed suit on February 2, 2019 and withdrew from the landmark 1987 treaty.
Putin Signs a Bill Suspending 1987 INF Treaty
Russian President Vladimir Putin on July 3, 2019 signed a bill passed by Russian parliament that would suspend country's participation in the landmark 1987 Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty.
INF Treaty Ends, Putin Vows to Deploy if Washington Does
The landmark 1987 Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty ended on August 2, 2019, marking a dark day in the history of global anti-nuclear weapons movement and setback to the denuclearization campaign. Three days later, August 5, 2019, Russian President Vladimir Putin said that the need of the hour was to talk, but vowed to deploy INF missiles if Washington went ahead and deployed such missiles.
U.S. Tests Intermediate-range Missile for the First Time in Decades
17 days after the 1987 INF Treaty had become void, U.S. on August 19, 2019 launched a missile with more than 300 miles of range from a mobile launching system off the coast of California. The landmark treaty signed by Reagan and Gorbachev had led to ban of any testing of intermediate-range missiles between 310- and 3100-mile ranges.
********************************** INF TREATY *********************************
77th Anniversary of Historic Parade in runup to Battle of Moscow Observed
About 5,000 Russian troops dressed in the World War II-era dress participated on November 7, 2018 in a spirited parade that included Vintage T-34 tanks and other battle relics of that era at the Red Square in Moscow. Addressing the crowd, Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin underlined the importance and significance of the parade, saying that the historic November 7, 1941, parade was a "symbol of courage and faith", eventually paving the way for the "first difficult step toward victory over the Nazis". Under the Soviet rule, the annual parade every November 7 used to signify the 1917 Bolshevik Revolution. The holiday was abolished in 2005, and since then, it's observed more as a historic Nazi Resistance March of 1941.
Former U.S. Marine Arrested on Espionage Charges
A former Marine, Paul Nicholas Wheelan, 48, was taken to custody in Moscow on December 28, 2018 by Russia's domestic intelligence agency, Federal Security Service, or FSB. FSB announced Wheelan's arrest on December 31, 2018, and added that former Marine had been charged on "espionage". The speculation is rife that it may be a political vendetta by Kremlin and Wheelan may be used as a bargaining chip to secure release of Maria Butina, who has recently pleaded guilty in U.S. court for not registering as a foreign agent.
Pompeo Demands Immediate Return of Wheelan
U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo on January 2, 2019 said in Brazil, where he had been to attend the swearing-in of a ultra-right wing former military commander as president, that Paul Wheelan should be returned if the "detention is not appropriate". Meanwhile, additional information on Wheelan, head of global security of the Michigan-based auto parts supplier Borg Warner, has emerged on his personal life and itinerary. He has arrived at Russia on December 22, 2018 to attend a friend's wedding. He was supposed to stay in Russia until December 30, 2018, but arrested by Russian security personnel on December 28, 2018 on espionage charges. Espionage charges carry a jail sentence up to 20 years in Russia. Paul Nicholas Wheelan has been in Marine Reserves from 1994 to 2008. He was court-martialed and convicted in January 2008 on "several charges related to larceny", according to the U.S. Marines. He was given a bad-conduct discharge in December 2008 at the rank of a private.
Wheelan Reported to Have Citizenship of Many Nations
The Washington Post reported on January 4, 2019 that Paul Nicholas Wheelan, 48, detained in Russia on December 28, 2018 on espionage carried passports of U.S., Britain, Canada and the Republic of Ireland.
Russia Downplays any Swap Plan
Russia's Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Rybakov told the state-run RIA news agency on January 5, 2019 that western media talks of swap between Paul Wheelan and Maria Butina was "wrong" and "inappropriate".
Putin Pushes an Aggressive Arctic Plan
Addressing a forum on Arctic Region at St. Petersburg, Russia that attracted Finland, Iceland, Norway and Sweden, Russian President Vladimir Putin on April 9, 2019 proposed to build more infrastructure, including ports, in the Arctic region as it became more passable and, with improved technology and navigation, more ships had been sailing through Arctic waters. Moscow sees a unique window of opportunity for increasing trade and infrastructure investment in the region as the annual cargo is estimated to increase from 20 million metric tons last year to 80 million metric tons in 2025.
Putin-Kim Summit Likely to Reset the Korean Peninsula Security Pivot
Asserting its dominance in the Korean Peninsula, where Moscow so far stayed away from, Russian President Vladimir Putin is all set to meet with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un at the Far Eastern Federal University at Vladivostok on April 26, 2019. The meeting will take place in the backdrop of a failed Kim-Trump summit at Hanoi two months earlier and renewed Russian interest in getting involved in the Korean Peninsula affairs as part of its goal to expand influence across the globe. Kim has already arrived at Vladivostok on April 24, 2019 in his usual armored train.
Putin says that He Will Brief Trump on Talks with Kim
Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un met at Vladivostok in the Far Eastern Federal Province on April 26, 2019, and the report emanated from the summit underlined Russian assertiveness to become a global player and stakeholder in the Korean talks. Before heading to China to attend a major business summit, Putin told reporters that he would inform Donald Trump on the talks and also underscore Pyongyang's points of view for an agreement underwritten by a multinational group of nations in the mold of 2015 Iran Nuclear Agreement.
Kim Takes a Dig at Washington
Before boarding his private armored train four-and-half hours earlier than scheduled, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un poured out his frustration to the reporters on April 26, 2019, saying that U.S. didn't talk in good faith in the failed Hanoi summit.
Trump, Putin Talk about Russia Hoax
U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin held first telephone conversation on May 3, 2019 since Mueller Report had been released. If media reports are to believe, Presidents Trump and Putin had talked about "Russian hoax", North Korea, Syria, Iran, Venezuela and bilateral nuclear treaty. The telephone talks were unprecedented in their tone for skewering a domestic Justice Department report by a sitting U.S. president while talking to a foreign head of state.
Xi, Putin Lauds "Close" Friendship
Russian President Vladimir Putin took the opportunity of a state visit of Chinese President Xi Jinping to highlight the growing bonds between Cold War-era political opponents and their collective displeasure over Washington's increasing hegemony in global affairs. Five weeks after hosting North Korean leader Kim Jong In, President Vladimir Putin on June 5, 2019 hosted Chinese President Xi Jinping at Kremlin. On the other hand, Xi reminded the world that he had met nearly 30 times with his "close friend", Vladimir Putin, and this state visit marked his eighth since becoming the president of China in 2012. At the conclusion of summit, a joint statement was issued on June 5, 2019 that decried, among others, the
* Unilateral withdrawal by USA from the Intermediate Nuclear Forces Treaty as it [U.S. withdrawal] would "undermine strategic stability"
* Growing threat of arms race in the space
Putin Sworn in as President for Fourth Term
Vladimir Putin on May 7, 2018 received the unique mantle of ruling a politically resurgent, but economically struggling, Russia for the fourth term.
Russia Test-fires Four Long-range Missiles Simultaneously
On May 22, 2018, Russia added an additional galore in its impressive recent effort of weapons modernization drive by successfully test-firing four intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBM) from one side of its time zone to the other side of the time zone in an immaculate precision. One of three new Borei-class submarines, Yuri Dolgoruki, named after a medieval prince who had founded Moscow, was used to launch four Bulava missiles in a single salvo from the submerged vessel in the White Sea. The missiles, having a range of 5,770 miles, reached with their payload to the target on the other side of the country, the Kura shooting range on the far-eastern peninsula of Kamchatka.
Putin Critic Arrested Minutes after Release
President Vladimir Putin's fiercest critic Alexie Navalny was re-arrested on September 24, 2018 after completing a 30-day sentence for an additional 20 days behind the bar for organizing a separate unauthorized rally that had caused bodily harm to law enforcement personnel.
********************************** INF TREATY *********************************
Putin Threatens Europe if It Hosts Banned U.S. Intermediate-Range Missiles
After the weekend decision by Trump administration to pull from a landmark 1987 Soviet-U.S. treaty, Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, that banned all ground-based short- and intermediate-range missiles for what it alleged that Russia was cheating on the agreement, Russian President Vladimir Putin on October 24, 2018 issued not-so veiled threat to European nations if it allowed U.S. to deploy any short- or medium-range missiles. NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg dismissed Russian concern on October 24, 2018 and said that any European nation was likely to host any U.S. intermediate- and short-range missiles. U.S. alleged that Russia had cheated on the 1987 agreement by deploying the so-called SSC-8 missiles. Under the treaty signed in 1987 by the former U.S. President Ronald Reagan and the then-Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev, all land-based cruise or ballistic missiles with ranges between 311 and 3,420 miles were banned.
Trump Urged to Stay in the Key Treaty
Former Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev who had inked the historic Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty in 1987 pleaded with Donald Trump on November 8, 2018 not to withdraw from the landmark treaty that had helped the world in the path to "continue the nuclear disarmament". Gorbachev's prodding, made at a film premiere in Moscow, came in the same week as two letters signed by the former government officials and academics called for Trump to stay in the treaty.
*One letter signed by more than a dozen prominent figures, including former Secretary of State George P. Schultz and former Senators Richard Lugar and Sam Nunn and sent to the White House on November 7, 2018 underlined the importance of how the "INF Treaty has prevented the unchecked deployment of nuclear missiles in Europe".
* A second letter dated November 6, 2018 and sent by the American College of National Security Leaders underlined that the "INF Treaty is a bedrock to our current arms control regime and serves rather than hampers American interests".
Key Russian Legislative Leader Threatens West if U.S. Withdraws from the INF Treaty
The head of the foreign affairs committee in the upper house of the Russian parliament, Konstantin Kosachev, said on November 22, 2018 that if Washington withdrew from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty, Russia would deploy missiles in the allied nations in Europe, issuing a not-so-veiled threat to U.S. and west about the consequence of the Trump administration's action. Under the 1987 landmark treaty, U.S. and Russia are prohibited from deploying, testing and producing ground-based cruise and ballistic missiles with 500- to 5,500-kilometer range.
Trump Administration Sends Formal Notice to Withdraw from INF
Trump administration, defying calls from bipartisan security experts, issued a formal notice on February 1, 2019 that it would officially withdraw from the 1987 Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty unless Russia came to full compliance with it.
Russia Withdraws from the 1987 INF Treaty
A day after U.S. President Donald Trump officially withdrew the country from the 1987 Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty, citing cheating by Moscow with "impunity", Russian President Vladimir Putin followed suit on February 2, 2019 and withdrew from the landmark 1987 treaty.
Putin Signs a Bill Suspending 1987 INF Treaty
Russian President Vladimir Putin on July 3, 2019 signed a bill passed by Russian parliament that would suspend country's participation in the landmark 1987 Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty.
INF Treaty Ends, Putin Vows to Deploy if Washington Does
The landmark 1987 Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty ended on August 2, 2019, marking a dark day in the history of global anti-nuclear weapons movement and setback to the denuclearization campaign. Three days later, August 5, 2019, Russian President Vladimir Putin said that the need of the hour was to talk, but vowed to deploy INF missiles if Washington went ahead and deployed such missiles.
U.S. Tests Intermediate-range Missile for the First Time in Decades
17 days after the 1987 INF Treaty had become void, U.S. on August 19, 2019 launched a missile with more than 300 miles of range from a mobile launching system off the coast of California. The landmark treaty signed by Reagan and Gorbachev had led to ban of any testing of intermediate-range missiles between 310- and 3100-mile ranges.
********************************** INF TREATY *********************************
77th Anniversary of Historic Parade in runup to Battle of Moscow Observed
About 5,000 Russian troops dressed in the World War II-era dress participated on November 7, 2018 in a spirited parade that included Vintage T-34 tanks and other battle relics of that era at the Red Square in Moscow. Addressing the crowd, Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin underlined the importance and significance of the parade, saying that the historic November 7, 1941, parade was a "symbol of courage and faith", eventually paving the way for the "first difficult step toward victory over the Nazis". Under the Soviet rule, the annual parade every November 7 used to signify the 1917 Bolshevik Revolution. The holiday was abolished in 2005, and since then, it's observed more as a historic Nazi Resistance March of 1941.
Former U.S. Marine Arrested on Espionage Charges
A former Marine, Paul Nicholas Wheelan, 48, was taken to custody in Moscow on December 28, 2018 by Russia's domestic intelligence agency, Federal Security Service, or FSB. FSB announced Wheelan's arrest on December 31, 2018, and added that former Marine had been charged on "espionage". The speculation is rife that it may be a political vendetta by Kremlin and Wheelan may be used as a bargaining chip to secure release of Maria Butina, who has recently pleaded guilty in U.S. court for not registering as a foreign agent.
Pompeo Demands Immediate Return of Wheelan
U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo on January 2, 2019 said in Brazil, where he had been to attend the swearing-in of a ultra-right wing former military commander as president, that Paul Wheelan should be returned if the "detention is not appropriate". Meanwhile, additional information on Wheelan, head of global security of the Michigan-based auto parts supplier Borg Warner, has emerged on his personal life and itinerary. He has arrived at Russia on December 22, 2018 to attend a friend's wedding. He was supposed to stay in Russia until December 30, 2018, but arrested by Russian security personnel on December 28, 2018 on espionage charges. Espionage charges carry a jail sentence up to 20 years in Russia. Paul Nicholas Wheelan has been in Marine Reserves from 1994 to 2008. He was court-martialed and convicted in January 2008 on "several charges related to larceny", according to the U.S. Marines. He was given a bad-conduct discharge in December 2008 at the rank of a private.
Wheelan Reported to Have Citizenship of Many Nations
The Washington Post reported on January 4, 2019 that Paul Nicholas Wheelan, 48, detained in Russia on December 28, 2018 on espionage carried passports of U.S., Britain, Canada and the Republic of Ireland.
Russia Downplays any Swap Plan
Russia's Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Rybakov told the state-run RIA news agency on January 5, 2019 that western media talks of swap between Paul Wheelan and Maria Butina was "wrong" and "inappropriate".
Putin Pushes an Aggressive Arctic Plan
Addressing a forum on Arctic Region at St. Petersburg, Russia that attracted Finland, Iceland, Norway and Sweden, Russian President Vladimir Putin on April 9, 2019 proposed to build more infrastructure, including ports, in the Arctic region as it became more passable and, with improved technology and navigation, more ships had been sailing through Arctic waters. Moscow sees a unique window of opportunity for increasing trade and infrastructure investment in the region as the annual cargo is estimated to increase from 20 million metric tons last year to 80 million metric tons in 2025.
Putin-Kim Summit Likely to Reset the Korean Peninsula Security Pivot
Asserting its dominance in the Korean Peninsula, where Moscow so far stayed away from, Russian President Vladimir Putin is all set to meet with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un at the Far Eastern Federal University at Vladivostok on April 26, 2019. The meeting will take place in the backdrop of a failed Kim-Trump summit at Hanoi two months earlier and renewed Russian interest in getting involved in the Korean Peninsula affairs as part of its goal to expand influence across the globe. Kim has already arrived at Vladivostok on April 24, 2019 in his usual armored train.
Putin says that He Will Brief Trump on Talks with Kim
Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un met at Vladivostok in the Far Eastern Federal Province on April 26, 2019, and the report emanated from the summit underlined Russian assertiveness to become a global player and stakeholder in the Korean talks. Before heading to China to attend a major business summit, Putin told reporters that he would inform Donald Trump on the talks and also underscore Pyongyang's points of view for an agreement underwritten by a multinational group of nations in the mold of 2015 Iran Nuclear Agreement.
Kim Takes a Dig at Washington
Before boarding his private armored train four-and-half hours earlier than scheduled, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un poured out his frustration to the reporters on April 26, 2019, saying that U.S. didn't talk in good faith in the failed Hanoi summit.
Trump, Putin Talk about Russia Hoax
U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin held first telephone conversation on May 3, 2019 since Mueller Report had been released. If media reports are to believe, Presidents Trump and Putin had talked about "Russian hoax", North Korea, Syria, Iran, Venezuela and bilateral nuclear treaty. The telephone talks were unprecedented in their tone for skewering a domestic Justice Department report by a sitting U.S. president while talking to a foreign head of state.
Xi, Putin Lauds "Close" Friendship
Russian President Vladimir Putin took the opportunity of a state visit of Chinese President Xi Jinping to highlight the growing bonds between Cold War-era political opponents and their collective displeasure over Washington's increasing hegemony in global affairs. Five weeks after hosting North Korean leader Kim Jong In, President Vladimir Putin on June 5, 2019 hosted Chinese President Xi Jinping at Kremlin. On the other hand, Xi reminded the world that he had met nearly 30 times with his "close friend", Vladimir Putin, and this state visit marked his eighth since becoming the president of China in 2012. At the conclusion of summit, a joint statement was issued on June 5, 2019 that decried, among others, the
* Unilateral withdrawal by USA from the Intermediate Nuclear Forces Treaty as it [U.S. withdrawal] would "undermine strategic stability"
* Growing threat of arms race in the space
U.S. 7th Fleet of the U.S. Navy on June 7, 2019 accused Russia of "unsafe and unprofessional" conduct when one of its destroyers, Admiral Vinogradov, came within a dangerous distance of 50 to 100 feet of a U.S. missile cruiser, USS Chancellorsville, in the East China Sea. However, Russia gave a contrasting narrative of the June 7, 2019, incident as the Russian Pacific Fleet called the U.S. maneuver in the high sea as dangerous.
Russian Investigative Journalist Detained on Drug Charges
A Russian investigative journalist who had worked for Latvia-based Russian-language outlet Meduza and focused on corruption in Moscow City Hall, predatory microfinance and shady deal in the funeral industry, was taken into custody in Central Moscow on June 6, 2019 after searches conducted by the law enforcement personnel found drug possession by Ivan Golunov. Meduza Chief Executive Galina Timchenko and Editor-in-Chief Ivan Kolpakov issued a statement on June 7, 2019, defending Ivan Golunov and criticizing Russian action as "targeted because of his work as journalist".
Investigative Journalist Freed
Four days after being detained on drug charges, the Russian investigative journalist Ivan Golunov on June 11, 2019 was released without any fanfare. Apparently Russian authorities thought that they might not have enough evidence to implicate the journalist of Latvia-based Russian-language outlet Meduza.
********* WEEKLY PROTESTS AGAINST OPPOSITION BAN IN LOCAL POLLS *******
Russian Opposition Holds Protest to Demand for Participation in Local Polls
Opposition activists on July 27, 2019 held demonstrations in Moscow and other Russian cities to protest against limiting the candidacy of Moscow mayoral election only to Kremlin-backed candidates. The demonstrations were held two days after the most recognizable Russian opposition leader, Alexei Navalny, had been ordered jailed on July 25, 2019 for 30 days for calling an unauthorized protest. Moscow's residents will elect a mayor and a 45-member city council on September 8, 2019, vote.
Communists Participate in Protest
The sixth Saturday of weekend protests on August 17, 2019 was something new as it was the turn of Russia's Communist Party that held a spirited rally at Moscow. Despite inclement weather, about 4,000 Communists turned up for the rally, with red flags fluttering atop sticks, photos of Communist leaders such as Joseph Stalin displayed and energetic chants. Veteran Communist leader Gennady Zyuganov lambasted the authorities for prohibiting opposition from September 8, 2019, local polls, urged Muscovites to oust Vladimir Putin-led United Russia Party from power, and took aim at liberal opposition parties for their loyalties to the west.
********* WEEKLY PROTESTS AGAINST OPPOSITION BAN IN LOCAL POLLS *******
Explosion at the Missile Testing Site Raises Radiation Level
An August 8, 2019, explosion at the missile testing range in the northwest of Russia near the White Sea killed five nuclear engineers and injured three others. The news of explosion at the State Central Navy Testing Range, established in 1954, near the village of Nyonoksa had not been reported for days until media reports poured in and Russia's Defense Ministry said that a liquid-propellant rocket engine had exploded and killed two people. Two days later, Russia's nuclear agency, Rosatom, acknowledged that an explosion occurred on an off-shore testing platform during tests of "nuclear isotope power source", killing five nuclear engineers. Now, the published reports say that right afterward the August 8, 2019, explosion, the radiation level at the nearby largest city of Severodvinsk, host to a shipbuilding yard for Russia's nuclear submarine fleet, rose to 2 microsieverts per hour for 30 minutes, or 20 times the normal level of 0.1 microsieverts per hour, before returning to the normal level. The panic returned to Nyonoksa on August 12, 2019 when order was issued for the village residents to evacuate only to be rescinded. Meanwhile, the so called mysterious tests of "nuclear isotope power source" generated speculation and controversies among the nuclear experts in the west, with many pointing to the "Burevestnik" or "Storm Petrel" missile program, a nuclear-powered cruise missile program that NATO had code-named "Skyfall".
Putin's French Visit Raises Hope for Peace in Ukraine
President Vladimir Putin on August 19, 2019 met with his French counterpart, Emmanuel Macron, in the latter's summer residence, the Fort de Bregancon, on the French Riviera. Both leaders talked about bringing a more sustainable peace in Eastern Ukraine that had led to a civil war and deaths of more than 13,000 since 2014. Meanwhile, in a goodwill gesture of some sort, Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe in a move in June 2019 restored delegation credentials for Russia, five years after they were revoked as a punishment to Russian annexation of Crimea.
Putin Brags about Upper Hand in New Weapon
At a meeting of a military brass in Moscow, Russian President Vladimir Putin on December 24, 2019 boasted of how Kremlin had leapfrogged over its western military opponents in developing cutting-edge weapons. In this regard, Putin said that "not a single country has hypersonic weapons, let alone hypersonic weapons of intercontinental range", referring to Russia's recent development of supersonic glider missile that can fly faster than sound speed. Putin added that during Cold War era, it was the Soviet Union who often would play catch-up games, but now, it was the west that often was playing the catch-up with Russia.
Russia's New Supersonic Missile Becomes Operational
Three days after Russian President Vladimir Putin boasted at a meeting of Russian military brass that his country was not only the first in developing a supersonic missile, but also its range as long as inter-continental ballistic missile range, Russian military on December 27, 2019 announced with much fanfare that its Avangard hypersonic glide vehicle during the day had entered into the country's weapon arsenal. Avangard hypersonic glide vehicle can fly 27 times the speed of sound. First time the world came to know about existence of such a potent weaponry was on March 1, 2018, days before Russian presidential election, as Putin revealed during the state-of the-nation address that Russia had the advanced weapons that could make the America's missile defense system impotent.
Last month, Russian officials have taken U.S. defense officials to an official tour of the Avangard facility as part of the New START nuclear agreement. Washington is leery both by Russia's and China's leap into this new domain of supersonic glider vehicle. China tested its own version of supersonic missile with a flying speed of as high as five times the sound speed, and demonstrated the weapon, Dong Feng 17, at the military parade to mark the 70th anniversary of the founding of China as a Communist nation.
************* CABINET PURGE AND CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENT *************
Putin Carries out Cabinet Purge
Russian President Vladimir Putin on January 15, 2020 carried out a significant overhaul of his cabinet aimed at consolidating his power, and to many western observers, extending his rule one way, or the other, beyond his current term. As a result of his cabinet overhaul, Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev resigned, and Tax Service chief Mikhail Mishustin was in as a new premier. The new cabinet must win the approval of duma which is all but assured. Putin has ruled longer than any Russian or Soviet leader other than Joseph Stalin (1924-53).
Putin Forms Cabinet, Retains Key Ministers
Vladimir Putin on January 21, 2020 formed a new cabinet, replacing many old faces, but retaining previous foreign minister (Sergey Lavrov), defense minister (Sergei Shoigu) and finance minister (Anton Siluanov). Heading the cabinet is the new prime minister Mikhail Mishustin, and it includes a first deputy premier, Andrei Belousov, Putin's former economic adviser, and eight other deputy premiers.
Constitutional Amendment Designed to Allow Putin to Rule until 2036
A constitutional amendment proposed by 83-year-old former cosmonaut and respected Russian scientist, Valentina Tereshkova, was passed by Duma and endorsed by President Vladimir Putin on March 10, 2020. Under the amendment, the presidency is limited to two six-year terms, but Putin will be allowed to contest as a fresher in 2024. That implies Putin having a complete say over his country until 2036 until he is deposed or defeated in the polls. Duma passed a set of other amendments proposed by Putin, including
* Defining marriage between a man and a woman
* Pledging homage to ancestors who "bequeathed us their ideals"
* Respect for ideas in "belief in God"
The measure will go to voters for a plebiscite next month. Vladimir Putin ruled Russia as a president from 2000 to 2008, and became the premier as part of the administration led by his protégé Dmitry Medvedev. Under Medvedev presidency (2008-2012), Russia had gone through an earlier round of constitutional amendment that changed the presidential terms to two six-year terms instead of a vague rule then that limited the presidency to two four-year successive stints, but kept the door open for seeking additional terms in future as well as extending the presidential terms from four to six years.
Putin Signs the Constitutional Amendment Measure
Russian President Vladimir Putin on March 14, 2020 signed the measure that was passed by country's parliament to pave the way for Russian strongman to rule the country through 2036. The measure now goes to the Constitutional Court and Russian voters for an April 22, 2020, referendum.
Weeklong Plebiscite Held; Package of Amendments Passed
Because of coronavirus pandemic, the referendum dates kept changing, and eventually authorities went for a week-long plebiscite from June 25 to July 1, 2020 to space out voter turnout with plenty of safety protocols in place. The package of constitutional amendments include:
* A new two-term, six year presidency for anyone, including Putin, who will be allowed to run for presidency in 2024 and, again in 2030, to rule Russia through 2036 if he can maintain the iron-clad rule
* Strengthening the parliamentary structure of Russia
* A ban on same-sex marriage
*A "belief in God as a core value"
* Primacy Russian laws over international laws and rules
Under the plebiscite rule, voters can't vote on individual amendments. Instead, they have to vote on the whole package. About 65 percent of the voters had cast their votes as of the end of the plebiscite on July 1, 2020, and according to the latest news, the package of amendments was on its way to be approved with 77.6 percent of the votes after about 75 percent of the votes were counted.
************* CABINET PURGE AND CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENT *************
Russia Blasts U.S. Stand on Low-Yield Nuclear Weapons
In response to a recently released U.S. State Department policy paper justifying putting low-yield nuclear warhead on Submarine-launched Ballistic Missile (SLBM) on the ground that such action might reduce the odds of an "all-out nuclear war", Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova on April 29, 2020 blasted the plan, saying it would have the just the opposite effect. The relation between Russia and the U.S. has nosedived in the past several months over Ukraine and last year's withdrawal of both nations from the Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces, or INF, Agreement. The only agreement that still binds the former Super Powers is New Start Treaty signed in 2010 by the then-Presidents Barack Obama and Dmitry Medvedev that limits each nation to retaining at most 1,550 deployed nuclear warheads and not more than 700 deployed missiles and bombers as well as allows a sweeping inspection regime for on-site assessment and accounting.
************************************* OPEN SKIES TREATY *************************************
Trump to Withdraw America from Another Key Treaty
Adding another international treaty to the growing rosters of international agreements, Trump administration on May 21, 2020 notified some 30 nations that it would be withdrawing from Open Skies Treaty. The treaty allows participating nations to conduct unarmed surveillance flights over each other's skies to promote trust and cooperation. The announcement was made by president himself and rationale he gave was that Russia was not following the treaty. However, President Trump expressed willingness to reconsider the decision once Moscow began to adhere to the treaty obligations. Trump administration's National Security Adviser Robert O'Brien said that U.S. would not be participating in any treaty where other parties were not following the rules. The only U.S.-Russia arms control agreement still standing is New START Treaty, which will expire in February 2021. Trump administration's special envoy for arms control, Marshall Billingslea, has said on May 21, 2020 at a Hudson Institute symposium that U.S. hopes that Russia will pull China into negotiation when renewal talks for New START Treaty begins.
U.S.
Formally Withdraws Open Skies Treaty
A
treaty that was originally intended to foster trust and bond among 30-plus
nations with reconnaissance and unarmed flights to oversee from each other’s
skies was thrown into towel by Trump administration as on November 21, 2020
U.S. formally withdrew from Open Skies Treaty. President Donald Trump
cited Russian ploy to collect sensitive information using the treaty as key to
his withdrawal decision, and said that, going forward, U.S. would base on
satellites to collect the same sort of information and data points that
reconnaissance mission was intended to collect.
************************************* OPEN SKIES TREATY *************************************
Whelan Convicted of Espionage
Former Marine Paul Whelan was convicted of espionage and sentenced to 16 years in prison on June 15, 2020 by a Russian court. Whelan all along maintained his innocence and claimed that he had been set up. He received a flash drive from an acquaintance in Russia, where he was visiting to attend a wedding, in December 2018 which he had thought to have contained wedding photos. However, the flash drive apparently had state secrets. U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, reacting to the court ruling, called it "appalling" and U.S. Ambassador to Russia John Sullivan called the verdict as "mockery of justice".
Russia Offered Bounty to Taliban for U.S. Military death
Already reeling under one debacle after another, ranging from coronavirus pandemic, tanking economy, Black Lives Matter movement in the context of America's worsening race relations, another bombshell can not come any sooner as The New York Times has reported on June 26, 2020 of a Russian military spy unit giving bounty to Taliban-linked militants to carry out killings of coalition soldiers, including U.S. soldiers. The New York times reported that U.S. intelligence knew about Russian bounty and brought to the attention of White House officials. According to The New York Times, the information was presented to Trump and discussed in the National Security Council in March 2020. The Dallas Morning News published the story in the Sunday June 27, 2020, online edition.
Trump Denies Knowledge of Russian Bounty
As the bipartisan call for investigation into Russian bounty on U.S. and British soldiers grew louder, President Donald Trump on June 28, 2020 washed off his hands on any possible knowledge of the bounty.
White House Knew about Bounty in Early 2019
The Associated Press and The Washington Post reported on June 29, 2020 that White House top officials were briefed in early 2019 about Russian bounty to Taliban-linked militants to kill American soldiers in Afghanistan. It was also reported that the then-National Security Adviser John Bolton had informed President Trump about the bounty in March 2019.
Bounty Information Included in Brief Two Days before U.S.-Taliban Deal
The Associated Press reported on July 4, 2020 that the information related to Vladimir Putin regime having given the Taliban-linked militants the bounty on U.S. soldiers had been included in February 27, 2020, Presidential Daily Brief, revealing a timeline that's just on the eve of signing of February 29, 2020, U.S.-Taliban agreement at Doha, Qatar and begging answers to question over whether President Trump and his close aides knew all about this threat before the deal and still proceeded with it.
A Popular Governor Opposed by Kremlin Arrested on Murder Charges
A popular governor of a region bordering China, Khabarovsk, who had defeated a Kremlin-backed candidate in 2018 election, was arrested on July 9, 2020 at the regional capital of the same name. Gov. Sergei Furgal was flown in to Moscow, and was interrogated for hours until midnight by the officials of Investigative Committee, Russia's main criminal investigative agency. Furgal, himself was a businessman, was charged on murders of various businessmen between 2004 and 2005 before he entered the politics. Sergei Furgal's victory in 2018 was unexpected and a setback to Vladimir Putin and the ruling United Russia Party.
Sanctions against Chechen Strongman
U.S. on July 20, 2020 slapped sanctions upon Chechen regional leader Ramzan Kadyrov for what U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo had described in a statement as "extensive, credible information that Kadyrov is responsible for numerous gross violations of human rights dating back more than a decade, including torture and extrajudicial killings".
****************************** ALEXIE NAVALNY POISONED *********************
Opposition Leader Hospitalized after Reported Poisoning
Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny, a fiercest critic of Russian President Vladimir Putin, was on August 20, 2020 hospitalized at a critical condition and immediately put on a ventilator. His spokesperson, Kira Yarmysh, said that Alexei Navalny was returning from Siberia to Moscow when he fell unconscious in the plane's bathroom. Navalny drank tea at an airport café at Tomsk, Siberia before boarding a plane on August 20, 2020 early morning. The plane made an emergency landing at another Siberian city, Omsk, where Alexie Navalny was hospitalized and put on ventilator. Yarmysh accused that the tea that Navalny drank at Tomsk airport was poisoned. Meanwhile, efforts are afoot to bring Alexie Navalny to bring in to Germany and hospitalized at a Berlin hospital.
German Plane Flies a Comatose Opposition Leader out of Russia
After several efforts to put hurdles against flying out a staunch Putin critic, Alexie Navalny, who had been reported to have been attacked by poison tea at a Siberian airport, of Russia to Germany, a medevac plane on August 21, 2020 took off from an airport at Omsk, Siberia with a comatose Navalny for Berlin. Berlin's Charite will treat Alexie Navalny.
Navalny Listed as Critical
A full range of tests is being conducted on the fierce Kremlin critic Alexie Navalny on August 22, 2020. His situation was listed as critical, according to his spokesperson. A day before, after several hours of haggling and road-blocking and pleas, especially a letter written by Navalny's wife, Yulia, requesting President Vladimir Putin to allow her husband to be taken to a Berlin hospital, Putin critic was allowed to be flown off the Siberian city of Omsk in a medevac plane funded by German group Cinema for Peace Foundation.
Poison Found in Test Results for Navalny
After a Berlin hospital where he had been admitted conducted a series of tests, world was awaiting eagerly for the test results to come in. On August 24, 2020, the Berlin hospital, Charite, said that there were traces of poison belonging to a family known as Cholinesterase Inhibitor found in Alexie Navalny's system and he was being treated with an antidote, atropine. Reacting to the test results, German Chancellor Angela Merkel said during the day that Russia's appropriate authorities should investigate into the poisoning and bring the guilty people to the full force of justice.
Kremlin Dismisses the Poisoning Allegation; Probe Ruled out
Vladimir Putin's spokesman Dmitry Peskov on August 25, 2020 dismissed the allegation that authorities were behind the poisoning of opposition leader Alexie Navalny. Even he went as far calling into question of a German hospital's finding that Navalny had been poisoned. He also said that there was no probe coming in response to "empty noise".
Same Poison Used against a Former Spy in Britain Used against Navalny too
In a further evidence that higher echelon of Kremlin was involved in poisoning of anti-Putin politician Alexie Navalny, German government on September 2, 2020 made public the test results from a German military lab and German Chancellor Angela Merkel said that the test had proven that Russian authorities might have been involved. The test results, a German government statement said, concluded that a poison belonging to the "Novichok group" was used against Navalny. It was the same family of poison that was used against former Russian spy Sergei Skripal and his daughter, Yulia, in Britain in March 2018. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson on September 2, 2020 called out Russia and asked for an explanation as use of a chemical weapon was "outrageous".
NATO Chief Condemns Poisoning; Calls for Russian Cooperation in an International Inquiry
NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg on September 4, 2020 said to reporters after a meeting with NATO ambassadors that it's "beyond doubt that Mr. Navalny was poisoned using a military-grade nerve agent from the Novichok group". Alexie Navalny is recuperating in a Berlin hospital although he is still on an induced coma. Stoltenberg also urged Kremlin to cooperate with an international investigation into its Novichok program.
Berlin Hospital Takes Navalny out of Induced Coma
As his health is improving, Berlin's Charite Hospital on September 7, 2020 issued a statement, saying that its highest-ranking patient, Alexie Navalny, had been taken out of induced coma and mechanical ventilator earlier in the day.
Navalny Breathes on His Own; Vows to Return
Russian opposition leader Alexie Navalny, who had been under medically induced coma, on September 15, 2020 posted on Instagram a picture of himself seated, his wife on his side and his two children, and wrote on that post that he could now breathe on his own. Navalny's spokeswoman also said that Alexie Navalny would eventually return to Russia.
Whelan Convicted of Espionage
Former Marine Paul Whelan was convicted of espionage and sentenced to 16 years in prison on June 15, 2020 by a Russian court. Whelan all along maintained his innocence and claimed that he had been set up. He received a flash drive from an acquaintance in Russia, where he was visiting to attend a wedding, in December 2018 which he had thought to have contained wedding photos. However, the flash drive apparently had state secrets. U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, reacting to the court ruling, called it "appalling" and U.S. Ambassador to Russia John Sullivan called the verdict as "mockery of justice".
Russia Offered Bounty to Taliban for U.S. Military death
Already reeling under one debacle after another, ranging from coronavirus pandemic, tanking economy, Black Lives Matter movement in the context of America's worsening race relations, another bombshell can not come any sooner as The New York Times has reported on June 26, 2020 of a Russian military spy unit giving bounty to Taliban-linked militants to carry out killings of coalition soldiers, including U.S. soldiers. The New York times reported that U.S. intelligence knew about Russian bounty and brought to the attention of White House officials. According to The New York Times, the information was presented to Trump and discussed in the National Security Council in March 2020. The Dallas Morning News published the story in the Sunday June 27, 2020, online edition.
Trump Denies Knowledge of Russian Bounty
As the bipartisan call for investigation into Russian bounty on U.S. and British soldiers grew louder, President Donald Trump on June 28, 2020 washed off his hands on any possible knowledge of the bounty.
White House Knew about Bounty in Early 2019
The Associated Press and The Washington Post reported on June 29, 2020 that White House top officials were briefed in early 2019 about Russian bounty to Taliban-linked militants to kill American soldiers in Afghanistan. It was also reported that the then-National Security Adviser John Bolton had informed President Trump about the bounty in March 2019.
Bounty Information Included in Brief Two Days before U.S.-Taliban Deal
The Associated Press reported on July 4, 2020 that the information related to Vladimir Putin regime having given the Taliban-linked militants the bounty on U.S. soldiers had been included in February 27, 2020, Presidential Daily Brief, revealing a timeline that's just on the eve of signing of February 29, 2020, U.S.-Taliban agreement at Doha, Qatar and begging answers to question over whether President Trump and his close aides knew all about this threat before the deal and still proceeded with it.
A Popular Governor Opposed by Kremlin Arrested on Murder Charges
A popular governor of a region bordering China, Khabarovsk, who had defeated a Kremlin-backed candidate in 2018 election, was arrested on July 9, 2020 at the regional capital of the same name. Gov. Sergei Furgal was flown in to Moscow, and was interrogated for hours until midnight by the officials of Investigative Committee, Russia's main criminal investigative agency. Furgal, himself was a businessman, was charged on murders of various businessmen between 2004 and 2005 before he entered the politics. Sergei Furgal's victory in 2018 was unexpected and a setback to Vladimir Putin and the ruling United Russia Party.
Sanctions against Chechen Strongman
U.S. on July 20, 2020 slapped sanctions upon Chechen regional leader Ramzan Kadyrov for what U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo had described in a statement as "extensive, credible information that Kadyrov is responsible for numerous gross violations of human rights dating back more than a decade, including torture and extrajudicial killings".
****************************** ALEXIE NAVALNY POISONED *********************
Opposition Leader Hospitalized after Reported Poisoning
Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny, a fiercest critic of Russian President Vladimir Putin, was on August 20, 2020 hospitalized at a critical condition and immediately put on a ventilator. His spokesperson, Kira Yarmysh, said that Alexei Navalny was returning from Siberia to Moscow when he fell unconscious in the plane's bathroom. Navalny drank tea at an airport café at Tomsk, Siberia before boarding a plane on August 20, 2020 early morning. The plane made an emergency landing at another Siberian city, Omsk, where Alexie Navalny was hospitalized and put on ventilator. Yarmysh accused that the tea that Navalny drank at Tomsk airport was poisoned. Meanwhile, efforts are afoot to bring Alexie Navalny to bring in to Germany and hospitalized at a Berlin hospital.
German Plane Flies a Comatose Opposition Leader out of Russia
After several efforts to put hurdles against flying out a staunch Putin critic, Alexie Navalny, who had been reported to have been attacked by poison tea at a Siberian airport, of Russia to Germany, a medevac plane on August 21, 2020 took off from an airport at Omsk, Siberia with a comatose Navalny for Berlin. Berlin's Charite will treat Alexie Navalny.
Navalny Listed as Critical
A full range of tests is being conducted on the fierce Kremlin critic Alexie Navalny on August 22, 2020. His situation was listed as critical, according to his spokesperson. A day before, after several hours of haggling and road-blocking and pleas, especially a letter written by Navalny's wife, Yulia, requesting President Vladimir Putin to allow her husband to be taken to a Berlin hospital, Putin critic was allowed to be flown off the Siberian city of Omsk in a medevac plane funded by German group Cinema for Peace Foundation.
Poison Found in Test Results for Navalny
After a Berlin hospital where he had been admitted conducted a series of tests, world was awaiting eagerly for the test results to come in. On August 24, 2020, the Berlin hospital, Charite, said that there were traces of poison belonging to a family known as Cholinesterase Inhibitor found in Alexie Navalny's system and he was being treated with an antidote, atropine. Reacting to the test results, German Chancellor Angela Merkel said during the day that Russia's appropriate authorities should investigate into the poisoning and bring the guilty people to the full force of justice.
Kremlin Dismisses the Poisoning Allegation; Probe Ruled out
Vladimir Putin's spokesman Dmitry Peskov on August 25, 2020 dismissed the allegation that authorities were behind the poisoning of opposition leader Alexie Navalny. Even he went as far calling into question of a German hospital's finding that Navalny had been poisoned. He also said that there was no probe coming in response to "empty noise".
Same Poison Used against a Former Spy in Britain Used against Navalny too
In a further evidence that higher echelon of Kremlin was involved in poisoning of anti-Putin politician Alexie Navalny, German government on September 2, 2020 made public the test results from a German military lab and German Chancellor Angela Merkel said that the test had proven that Russian authorities might have been involved. The test results, a German government statement said, concluded that a poison belonging to the "Novichok group" was used against Navalny. It was the same family of poison that was used against former Russian spy Sergei Skripal and his daughter, Yulia, in Britain in March 2018. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson on September 2, 2020 called out Russia and asked for an explanation as use of a chemical weapon was "outrageous".
NATO Chief Condemns Poisoning; Calls for Russian Cooperation in an International Inquiry
NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg on September 4, 2020 said to reporters after a meeting with NATO ambassadors that it's "beyond doubt that Mr. Navalny was poisoned using a military-grade nerve agent from the Novichok group". Alexie Navalny is recuperating in a Berlin hospital although he is still on an induced coma. Stoltenberg also urged Kremlin to cooperate with an international investigation into its Novichok program.
Berlin Hospital Takes Navalny out of Induced Coma
As his health is improving, Berlin's Charite Hospital on September 7, 2020 issued a statement, saying that its highest-ranking patient, Alexie Navalny, had been taken out of induced coma and mechanical ventilator earlier in the day.
Navalny Breathes on His Own; Vows to Return
Russian opposition leader Alexie Navalny, who had been under medically induced coma, on September 15, 2020 posted on Instagram a picture of himself seated, his wife on his side and his two children, and wrote on that post that he could now breathe on his own. Navalny's spokeswoman also said that Alexie Navalny would eventually return to Russia.
Navalny Returns to Russia, Immediately Taken to Police Custody
On January 17, 2021, Russian dissident Alexi Navalny returned to Russia from Germany, where he had been convalescing for the past five months after a poison attack. His flight was supposed to land at Moscow's Vnukovo Airport, but for any unknown reason diverted to Sheremetyevo Airport. Supporters were waiting at Vnukovo airport, and more than four dozens supporters were arrested during the day at Vnukovo Airport. After arriving at Sheremetyevo Airport, Alexi Navalny was arrested on January 17, 2021 at the airport's passport control. Russia's prison service threatened days earlier to arrest Navalny for an earlier parole violation. Knowing fully well that he will be arrested upon return, Alexi Navalny and his wife, Yulia, have vowed to return. In August, he fell sick during a flight back to Moscow from Siberia, and two days later, he was airlifted in an air ambulance to Germany. Authorities in Germany, France and Sweden as well as Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons subsequently confirmed that Navalny had been exposed to a Soviet-era nerve agent, Novichok. Incoming Biden administration's National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo criticized the detention of Russian dissident and pro-democracy leader upon return to Russia.
Navalny Ordered Jailed for 30 Days
A judge on January 18, 2021 ordered Russian dissident Alexie Navalny jailed for 30 days for violating parole terms stemming from a 2014 money laundering case. Alexie Navalny on January 17, 2021 returned to Russia after recovering from a Novichok attack that made him ill during an August 20, 2020, flight from Serbia. The flight had to stop at an interim place to hospitalize Navalny. From there, Navalny was airlifted to Germany where he had recovered and, despite the warning that Russia's prison service was looking for arresting him, Navalny decided to return. Alexie Navalny was arrested on January 17, 2021 at the passport control after his plane landed at Sheremetyevo Airport.
Navalny Reported to be in a Notorious Jail
Russia's Public Monitoring Commission rights group said on January 19, 2021 that the country's most famous dissident was being held in the infamous Matrosskaya Tishina detention center. A day before, a Russian judge ordered Alexie Navalny to be remanded in a 30-day pre-trial custody. Matrosskaya Tishina earned its notoriety after the unexplained death of human rights lawyer Sergei Magnitsky at the detention center in 2009.
Navalny
Releases a Video from Jail, Accuses Putin of Colossal Corruption
A
YouTube video released on January 19, 2021 that had been allegedly made
by Alexie Navalny had salacious details of Russian President Vladimir
Putin’s personal life. In that video, a photo of a teenager named Elizaveta
Krivonogikh was shown, and the video alleged that Putin fathered the
teenager. Navalny’s video also shed a light on a gargantuan palace at a Black
Sea resort of Gelendzhik, describing that it was built for Putin by money
from a “slush fund”. What shocked the political world was that the video was
released and circulated amidst Alexie Navalny’s detention in one of the most
notorious prisons of Russia.
3,000 Arrested in Protest to Seek Release of Navalny
That the Russian dissident Alexie Navalny had built one of the widest and most extensive opposition network the vast country was demonstrated on January 23, 2021 as protests small and large were held all across Russia to demand the release of the opposition leader. The demonstrations were held in the vast Russian territory spanning from the island city of Yuzhno-Sakhalink, just north of Japan, to Siberian city Yakutsk, where temperature plummetted to -58 degree Fahrenheit to St. Petersburg to Moscow. In Moscow, main demonstration was held at the central Pushkin Square where jailed leader's wife, Yulia, participated and was subsequently arrested. A Russian activist group, OVD-Info group, said that 3,068 demonstrators were arrested during the day's protests in more than 90 cities.
Navalny Aide Vows to Press for His Release; Fight for Fair Election
A key aide to Russian dissident Alexie Navalny said on January 26, 2021 that supporters of the jailed leader would continue their protests to seek Navalny's release. The lawyer turned opposition politician Lyubov Sobol also vowed to continue to rally opposition supporters in their collective demand for free and fair parliamentary elections later this year. Ms. Lyubov Sobol vowed that Alexie Navalny's Foundation for Fighting Corruption would operate all regional offices despite Kremlin's "arrests of our followers and allies". Also, during the day, G7 foreign ministers condemned the imprisonment of Navalny and his followers.
5,000+ Arrested in the Second Large Demonstration in Eight Days to Seek Opposition Leader's release
Another huge wave of protests had been held across the 11 time zones in Russia on January 31, 2021 to demand the opposition leader Alexie Navalny's release. By the end of the day, more tha 5,100 people were arrested. Another demonstration was called in Moscow for February 2, 2021, the day Navalny, who had been jailed soon after returning from Germany on January 17, 2021, would appear for a court hearing. On January 31, 2021, U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken condemed in a twitter message Kremlin's "harsh tactics against peaceful protesters". Russian foreign ministry rejected Blinken's comments, saying that it had amounted to "crude interference in Russia's internal affairs".
A Defiant Navalny Sentenced to Two-and-half Years in Jail
Kremlin critic Alexie Navalny on February 2, 2021 appeared at a Moscow courthouse in a glass cage. The court during the day sentenced Navalny to two-and-half years in prison for violating the probation terms while convalescing in Germany after a poison attack. Alexie Navalny's original conviction is related to a 2014 embezzlement charge that opposition has denounced as politically motivated. As the verdict became public, opposition activists held protest rallies in Moscow and St. Petersburg. Helmeted riot police were seen arresting protesters from St. Petersburg's Nevsky Prospekt Avenue. U.S. Foreign Secretary Anthony Blinken denounced the verdict and demanded that Mr. Navalny be released "immediately and unconditionally".
Tit
for Tat by Three EU Nations against Russia
After
Russia announced expulsion of diplomats from Germany, Poland and Sweden
on the ground that they had participated in last week’s demonstrations by tens
of thousands of opposition activists to demand the release of Russian
opposition leader Alexie Navalny, three E.U. nations on February 8, 2021
declared one Russian diplomat each as “persona non grata”. Standing
alongside the three E.U. nations, European parliamentarians on February 8,
2021 called for “maximum solidarity” for the three E.U member nations as
well as “a new strategy for EU’s relations with Russia".
Navalny Appears in Court for a Separate Libel Trial
Russian opposition leader Alexie Navalny, who had been sentenced 10 days ago to 2 years and eight months in prison for probation violation, on February 12, 2021 appeared at a Moscow court in a glass cage for a separate trial that involved defamation against a World War II veteran. Navalny's supporters called the libel suit as a dirty means to drive a wedge between the Kremlin critic and broader general population by making the venerable World War II generation as a political pawn. The libel centers around a June 2020 PR promotion of the constitutional reform, which has subsequently been enacted as a law, that will aim at elongating Vladimir Putin's presidency potentially through 2036. Many celebrities and sports figures promoted the constitutional reform on behalf of Kremlin. One of them was 94-year-old World War II veteran Ignat Artemenko. Navalny called them "people without conscience", "traitors" and "lackeys".
Illumination Protest Held, Navalny's Video on Putin's Corruption Watched more than 111 million Times
Russians backing imprisoned opposition leader Alexie Navalny on February 14, 2021 held an innovative and rather cheaper protest rally by illuminating their flashlights. Meanwhile, a video released by Navalny on January 19, 2021 that highlighted how corruption had ensnared the inner and outer political circles of Vladimir Putin, including a Black Sea palace purchased by Putin with the corruption-tinged money, was reported to be seen 111 million times since its release.
Navalny's Appeal Rejected
An appellate hearing against Alexie Navalny's 2-year-and-eight-month sentence produced a few weeks off from the dissident leader's jail term. On February 20, 2021, a Moscow City Court judge stayed his prison sentence, chopped off about 6 weeks for the time that he had served under house arrest in 2015.
Biden Admin Sanctions Seven Russian Officials
Underlining what could be different in Washington after the Trump presidency was over, Biden administration did not hesitate to impose sanctions against Russian officials as a punsihment for Kremlin's treatment of dissent. On March 2, 2021, Biden White House imposed sanctions on seven mid- to high-tier Russian officials, businesses and other entities, accusing them of helping the effort to harm Alexie Navalny by a nerve agent, Novichok,
Navalny Begins Hunger Strike over Lack of Medical Care
The jailed opposition leader Alexie Navalny wrote on Instagram on March 31, 2021 that he was beginning hunger strike in protest against authorities' refusal to give him appropriate care for back and leg pain, allow his personal doctor to visit him behind the bar and let him sleep properly at night by applying sleep deprivation technique as a guard continued checking him every hour in the night.
Protests Called by Navaly Backers
Groups backing jailed Russian opposition leader Alexie Navalny on April 18, 2021 called for mass protests against authorities' full-throttled drive to deprive the activist leader from jail visitation by his personal doctors and government negligence as his health had been in a dire state after a three-week hunger strike meant to decry move to prevent him from seeing his personal doctors in the jail. The mass protests were called for April 21, 2021 in the two large Russian cities: St. Petersburg and Moscow.
Navalny Moved to Prison Hospital as His Health Deteriorates
Russia's federal penetentiary services, which goes by FSIN, has said on April 19, 2021 morning that Alexie Navalvy has been transferred to a hospital at another prison 110 miles east of Moscow in the city of Vladimir and the opposition leader has agreed to take vitamin therapy. Alexie Navalny was on hunger strike over the past three weeks at a jail about 50 miles east of Moscow, and his personal physician, Dr. Yaroslav Asikhmin, raised alarm on April 17, 2021 that the opposition leader might be close to death. According to his doctor, Alexie Navalny's potassium level is very high, posing a risk for cardiac arrest, as well as a very elevated level of creatinine that can damage kidney function.
Navalny Ending Hunger Strike
After a successful protest day on April 21, 2021 when tens of thousands had participated and more than thousand protesters had been arrested and federal authorities relented on Alexie Navalny's demand that he be checked by his personal physicians, allowing him to be examined by civilian doctors not once, but twice, Alexie Navalny's lawyers on April 23, 2021 posted on his behalf on the Instagram that the oppsotion leader and Kremlin critic was ending his 24-day hunger strike.
Russian Court Bans Navalny's Party Before Parliamentary Polls
A Moscow City Court ruling issued on June 9, 2021 outlawed Foundation for Fighting Corruption, founded by jailed Russian opposition leader Alexie Navalny, on extremism charges, thus scuttling the chances of many pro-Navalny leaders contesting the September 19, 2021, election.
A
Close Ally of Navalny Ordered to Continue under House Arrest-like Sentence for
Another Year
A
Russian court on August 3, 2021 handed out Lyubov Sobol, a
political ally of Alexie Navalny and an opposition leader, to a house
arrest-like sentence on charges of violating coronavirus-related restrictions
as she had exhorted Navalny followers to show up and demonstrate against the
government early in the year. The sentence includes barring her from leaving
home between 10PM and 6 AM, traveling outside Moscow and surrounding areas, and
attending mass events. Since Lyubov Sobol has already spent six months
under house arrest, the court has handed down a sentence of one year, making it
a total of 18 months of sentence.
Navalny's, Allies' Website Blocked
In the run-up to September 19, 2021, parliamentary election, a political website created in 2018 was blocked by the Russian authorities on September 6, 2021. Alexie Navalny and his allies have created this website, and in the September 19, 2021, parliamentary election, it has an outsized role in identifying candidates who are running strong against the candidates put up by the ruling Putin-backed United Russia party.
Navalny Bestowed Top European Human Rights Award
In a slap to Russia, European Parliament on October 20, 2021
awarded the Sakharov Prize to jailed Russian leader Alexie Navalny.
European Parliament President David Sassoli, awarding the prize,
commended Navalny for helping “expose abuses and mobilize the support of
millions of people across Russia”. Sassoli added that, for Alexie Navalny’s
anti-Kremlin stand, “he was poisoned and thrown in jail”. David Sassoli also
called for Alexie Navalny’s immediate release from prison. Kremlin is
yet to respond to awarding the continent’s highest human rights prize to its political
bete noire. This comes days after Russia withdrew all its mission presence to
NATO headquarters in Brussels and closed the military alliance’s main office in
Moscow. That the frayed nerve is yet to soothe over a spirally downward
relationship between Moscow and Brussels became evident as NATO
Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg hailed the European Parliament’s
decision, and also called for Navalny’s “unconditional release from prison".
Navalny’s Trial Blasted by Rights Group
That the trial of Alexie Navalny on fraud and contempt
of court charges does not get media coverage and access to international
observers has been made sure by Russian authorities as the trial that the
Kremlin critics has dubbed as sham is undergoing at a penal colony far from
Moscow. The trial that has begun on February 15, 2022 may send Alexie
Navalny, the staunchest critic of Putin, to up to 15 years in jail in
addition to 2-and-1/2-year term that he is already serving since his January
2021 arrest upon return from Germany for violating the terms of parole from
a separate 2014 case.
Navalny Sentenced Nine-year
As Russian invasion of Ukraine continues to grab world’s attention, Russian
President Vladimir Putin’s staunchest critic Alexie Navalny on March
22, 2022 was sentenced to 9 years in prison. Navalny was charged on
embezzlement charges for raising money for his foundation and insulting a judge
in a previous trial. The trial is being held at a makeshift courtroom in a
penal colony.
Navalny Shifted to a Penal Colony above Arctic Circle
An aide to Russian opposition leader Alexie Navalny said on December
25, 2023 that the jailed Kremlin critic serving a 19-year prison
sentence on extremism charges had been shifted to a penal colony above the
Arctic Circle from Central Russia. Navalny’s contact with his followers was
severed on December 6, 2023, and his latest whereabout knowledge came as
a huge relief to them.
Putin Nemesis Dead, Free World Denounces
In a repeat of history, Alexie Navalny, the voice of freedom and
anti-corruption who had boldness and courage to raise the flag of rebellion
against Russian leader Vladimir Putin, on February 16, 2024 was
reported dead at a Siberian penal colony. The reason for Navalny’s death was not
spelled out by Russian authorities, but U.S. President Joe Biden was simultaneously
“not surprised and outraged” by this apparent killing and held Putin
responsible. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, talking to
reporters at Berlin alongside German Chancelor Olaf Scholz, blamed this “creature”
for the death of Alexie Navalny. A day before, February 15, 2024,
Navalny appeared before a judge via video and looked healthy. Some of the
sharpest criticisms came from Russia’s Baltic neighbors. Latvian President Edgars
Rinkevics called the death of Navalny as “murder”. Estonian Prime
Minister Kaja Kallas, whose mother and grand mother had been sent in exile
to Siberia, called the death of Navalny as a dark reminder of the rogue regime
of the past.
The death of Alexie Navalny, who had been poisoned in August
2020, but later recuperated in Berlin, marked the continuation of a dark
trend of opposition political figures and civilian leaders being assassinated under
Putin’s watch, including killing of reporter Anna Politkovskaya and
former intel operative Alexander Litvinenko.
Rights Group: More than 360 Detained over Protest against Navalny’s
Death
Russia’s renowned opposition-led human rights group OVD-Info
reported on February 18, 2024 that Russian President Vladimir Putin’s
political nemesis Alexie Navalny’s death on February 16, 2024
triggered protests in 39 cities, leading to 366 arrests. The rights group also
said that authorities declined to transfer the body of the opposition leader to
his family expeditiously.
Widow Vows to Carry Torch of Martyred Leader
In a video released on February 19, 2024, Yulia Navalnaya, widow
of slain Russian opposition leader Alexie Navalny, resolutely told the
world that she would carry her murdered husband’s torch to create a beautiful
and democratic Russia. Navalnaya was in Brussels on February 19, 2024 at
the invitation of EU foreign ministers. Navalnaya alleged that the authorities
had declined to hand over the dead body to Navalny’s 64-year-old mother, Lyudmila
Navalnaya, who had arrived at the Arctic town of Salekhard, 33 miles
from the jail where Navalny had been imprisoned, on February 17, 2024 to
receive her son’s body, only to be repeatedly rebuffed.
Navalny’s Mother Saw the Body, Stands against Secret Burial; Biden Meets
Widow
In a video post circulated on February 22, 2024, Lyudmila
Navalnaya, mother of the deceased Russian opposition leader Alexie
Navalny, said that she had seen the body of her dead son at a morgue in the
Arctic city of Salekhard. She protested when local authorities insisted
on a secret burial, according to the video post.
Thousands of miles away at San Francisco, U.S. President Joe
Biden on February 22, 2024 met Navalny widow, Yulia Navalnaya, and
their 20-year-old daughter Dasha.
Navalny’s Body Handed over to Mother, Activist Reports
Former Russian opposition leader Alexie Navalny’s Anti-Corruption
Foundation Director Ivan Zhdanov said on his Telegram channel on February
24, 2024 that Navalny’s body had been handed over to the Kremlin critic’s
mother, Lyudmila Navalnaya.
Navalny Part of Swap Discussion, Activist Group Says
The head of Anti-Corruption Foundation, Maria Pevchikh, said in a
video address on February 26, 2024 that U.S. was in the midst of a swap
talks for Alexie Navalny as well as Paul Whelan and The Wall
Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich in exchange for Vadim
Krasikov—a Russian convict serving life term at a German prison—when Navalny
had died on February 16, 2024 at the Polar Wolf Prison colony in the town of Kharp in the Yamalo-Nenets
Region in Northern Russia. The head of the anticorruption organization,
founded by Alexie Navalny, said that a Russian oligarch, Roman Abramovich,
was involved in the swap deal and working as a go-between.
Thousands Attend Navalny’s Funeral
Russian corruption crusader Alexie Navalny was given a hero’s farewell
by thousands of his followers and well-wishers as a solemn funeral was held on March
1, 2024 at the Church of the Icon of the Mother of God Soothe My Sorrows in
the Moscow region that was attended, among others, by U.S. Ambassador Lynne
Tracy and Navalny’s parents.
U.S. Intel Believes that Putin likely Has not Ordered Navalny’s Killing
Although Russian President Vladimir Putin was ultimately
responsible for Russian opposition leader and fierce Kremlin critic Alexie
Navalny’s death, Russian strongman didn’t order his killing or didn’t know
exact timing of his death at a penal colony north of the Arctic Circle,
according to an April 28, 2024, report carried by The Associated
Press based on the U.S. Intelligence assessment. Alexie Navalny was serving
a 19-year rigorous prison sentence on extremism charges when he was pronounced
dead on February 16, 2024.
****************************** ALEXIE NAVALNY POISONED *********************
Russia Holds Massive War Games in Bering Sea
Right at the doorstep of Alaska, Russian military has held, or is continuing, a massive war game with more than 50 naval vessels and about 40 aircraft, according to a Russian military statement issued on August 28, 2020. The statement quoted the Russia's naval chief, Admiral Nikolai Yevmenov, as saying: "we are holding such massive drills" in Bering Sea. This marks the first time since Soviet era such a massive scale of war games has been held.
Putin
Ally Slapped by Sanctions Imposed by EU
A
Putin ally and Russian oligarch, Yevgeny Prigozhin, was slapped with
travel ban and other sanctions by European Union for breaching the U.N. embargo
on Libya and enabling the civil war in Libya by working with Wagner Group
that supplied thousands of mercenaries to a Benghazi-based warlord, Khalifa
Hifter. EU sanctions were imposed on October 15, 2020. Yevgeny
Prigozhin was indicted by a grand jury in 2018 as part of Robert
Mueller investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 U.S. Presidential
Election.
Six
Russian Intelligence Officials Indicted
U.S.
Department of Justice on October 19, 2020 unveiled criminal charges against six Russian
intelligence officials for unleashing cyberattacks on Ukraine’s power grid,
attacking computer system related to 2018 Winter Olympics, launching one of the
costliest cyberattacks on the western financial interests and other nefarious cyber-activities.
Unveiling the charges at Washington D.C., Assistant Attorney-General John
Demers criticized Moscow for weaponizing its “cyber capabilities” in malicious
and irresponsible manner to create “unprecedented collateral damage to pursue
small tactical advantages and to satisfy fits of spite”. The charges accuse a
special unit, called the Unit 74455, of Russia’s military intelligence
agency, GRU, of unleashing the cyberattacks. The October 19, 2020,
U.S. charges do not include any 2020 election interference activities. The
criminal charges named six intel officials of Unit 74455: Anatoly
Kovalev, 29; Yuriy Andrienko, 32; Sergey Detistov, 35; Pavel Frolov, 28; Artem
Ochichenko, 27; Petr Pliskin, 32. Among the six, Anatoly Kovalev was also
indicted by Special Prosecutor Robert Mueller in Russian interference in
2016 U.S. Presidential Election. The October 19, 2020, charges include:
* Launching
attack on Ukraine’s electric grid in late 2015 and 2016
* Unleashing
“NotPetya” ransomware against Ukraine in 2017 that has quickly grown and
spread to other parts of the world as one of the largest cyberattacks,
crippling doctors’ offices, medical facilities in western Pennsylvania as well
as a subsidiary of FedEx and a pharmaceutical company and costing billions of
dollars in damage
* Infecting
computer system for 2018 Winter Olympics by a malware called the “Olympic
Destroyer” that has been initially thought of a North Korean cyberattack
Unit
74455
worked with another GRU unit, Unit 26165, in 2016 in breaching
the Democratic Party computer system. In that attack, Unit 26165 intruded the
Democratic Party computer system, and Unit 74455 had set up a web site, “DC
Leaks”, to feed those hacked material although the website was overshadowed
by the WikiLeaks’ trove of leaks of the hacked Democratic Party computer
system content that had included damaging information about the then-Democratic
Party nominee Hillary Clinton. GRU provided the damaging information stolen by Unit
26165 to WikiLeaks.
*********************** TWO U.S. MARINES IN RUSSIAN JAIL
Two Former Marines at Crosshairs of U.S.-Russia Tension
That the relationship between U.S. and Russia has taken a sharp U-turn under Joe Biden's presidency and the 46th U.S. President will be much more aggressive to counter Russian President Vladimir Putin's effort to suppress political dissent at home, intervene in the the election on the foreign land and tolerate--and, even worse, encourage-- cyberattacks on western infrastructure and institutions is clearly evident from Biden's forceful interview in ABC's Good Morning America aired on March 17, 2021. Biden called Putin a "killer" and threatened that Putin would "pay a price" for spreading lies in order to deny him the White House. Biden's forceful criticism of Putin complicates the fate of two Americans now being jailed in Russia. Paul Wheelan, 50, an ex-Marine, is serving a 16-year term for charges related to espionage. The Michigan man was arrested in 2018 in his Moscow hotel room with a thumb drive that contained classified information. Wheelan and his backers said that he had been set up. Paul Wheelan was sentenced to a 16-year imprisonment term in 2020.
Another ex-Marine, Trevor Reed, was pursuing his Master's Degree in international relations at the University of North Texas and went to Russia for a class in Moscow in May 2019. He was arrested after getting drunk at a Moscow party. While Reed was being transported to a police station that night, he was accused of grabbing the police officers that had led to wild swerving of the police car, endangering the police personnel. Last year, a presiding judge denied a video camera footage as evidence in the trial and sentenced Reed to nine years in prison. Now, backers of both Wheelan and Reed fear that their release from the Russian jails looks more uncertain in the backdrop of brewing tension between Biden administration and Putin.
Marine Begins Hunger Strike
The Dallas Morning News on November 10, 2021 reported that Trevor Reed had begun hunger strike on November 4, 2021 to protest against continuous imprisonment and denial of appropriate care at jail.
Reed
Released in a Prisoner Swap Deal
It
will be a sweet Mother’s Day for Trevor Reed, a former U.S. Marine who
has been languishing in Russian gulag for almost three years, as the Texan has
been released as part of a prisoner swap. On April 27, 2022, Trevor Reed,
who is suffering from TB, is en route the U.S. via Turkey. In exchange, U.S.
released a Russian who was serving a jail term in the U.S. on charges of drug
smuggling.
Reed Files Petition to U.N., Requesting Russia to be Held Accountable
U.S. Marine Trevor Reed, who had spent three years in Russian gulag, on
June 13, 2022 filed a petition to the United Nations Working Group on
Arbitrary Detention to declare Russia in violation to international law for
holding him captive.
************************** PAUL WHELAN*******
After Griner, Effort to Seek Release of Whelan Heating up
The Dallas Morning News reported in a front-page article on December 17, 2022 that talks and diplomatic push was going stronger to seek release of Former Marine Paul Whelan, who had been arrested in December 2018 while attending a wedding at Moscow and sentenced to a 16-year sentence on espionage charges in 2020. After the release of WNBA star Brittney Griner on December 8, 2022, U.S. Special Presidential Envoy for Hostage Affairs Roger Carstens said on a CNN show on December 11, 2022 that he was in touch with Paul Whelan. There are several high-profile Russians in western custody that Kremlin may be willing to swap for Whelan. Vladislav Klyushin has been extradited from Switzerland on the charges of hacking into DNC servers. Russia may be also angling for Vadim Krasikov, who is serving a life-term at a German prison for a “state-sponsored murder” at the behest of Russia’s Federal Security Service, or FSB. Two other Russians are fighting against extradition to the U.S., where they face up to 30 years in prison on the charges of skirting sanctions of shipping U.S. military technology and Venezuelan oil to Russia. Yury Orekhov is fighting extradition in Germany, and Artem Uss, whose father Alexander is the governor of Siberian region of Krasnoyarsk, is fighting extradition in the Italian legal system. There are other Russians under U.S. detention, including alleged hacker Roman Seleznev and alleged money launderer Alexander Vinnik.
************************** PAUL WHELAN*******
*********************** TWO U.S. MARINES IN RUSSIAN JAIL
Putin Decries Biden's "Killer" Comment with Reference to Slavery, Native American Slaughter
Russian President Vladimir Putin on March 18, 2021 said that Biden's characterization of himself was itself a reflection of America's bloody past, including slavery and slaughter of Native Americans. Putin's comment came as a response to a question asked during a video call to mark the seventh anniversary of annexation of Crimea. Both sides, though, want to move past this controversy as White House spokeswoman Jen Psaki said during the day that the Biden administration would work with Moscow to curb Iran's nuclear program, strengthen arms control treaties, prevent weapon proliferations and champion other issues of joint benefits.
Biden's Second Call with Putin Filled with Tension
As Russian forces are massing along the western borders with Ukraine in recent days, that the White House is taking it seriously is clear during a tense April 13, 2021, call between President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin as Biden "emphasized the United States' unwavering commitment to Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity", according to a White House statement issued later in the day. Biden also proposed to have a summit with Putin in a third nation.
Biden Admin Slaps Sanctions on Russia
In response to alleged effort to interfere in the 2020 election and cyberattacks on federal agencies and other U.S. interests, Biden administration on April 15, 2021 imposed sanctions against a host of Russian companies and individuals. In addition, White House ordered 10 Russian diplomats to leave the United States. The sanctions are being expected for quite some time as U.S. intelligence agencies have been mulling over it related to SolarWinds breach. Six Russian companies have been targeted for cyberespionage and 32 others--16 individuals and 16 entities--have been slapped with sanctions for election interference.
Russia Responds in Kind, Expelling 10 American Diplomats
The tit-for-tat game is back as Russian Foreign Ministry on April 16, 2021 announced a spate of measures to respond Biden administration's sanctions and expulsions announced barely 24 hours ago. As per the order, 10 American diplomats have been ordered to go home, additional restrictions on [U.S.] embassy activities were imposed and several U.S. current and former officials--including Attorney-General Merrick Garland, FBI Director Christopher Wray, DNI Avril Haines, DHS Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas, Susan Rice, John Bolton, James Woolsey and Federal Bureau of Prison Director Michael Carvajal--were barred from entering the country. The Russian Foreign Ministry also asked the U.S. Ambassador John Sullivan to follow the footstep of his Russian counterpart and return to Washington D.C. for further consultation.
Shooting at a Russian School Kills 9, Wounds 31
In a rare mass shooting, a 19-year-old former student entered a school in the regional capital of Tatarstan, and opened fire, killing four boys and three girls in addition to one teacher and another school staff. Reports that subsequently emerged portrayed a grim situation at the school, where a 19-year-old former student had carried out the attack on May 11, 2021. The shooting wounded an additional 31 people, including dozens of students. Tatarstan's governor, Rustam Minnikhanov, said that all the students were eighth-graders. Gun violence in Russian schools is very rare. The worst school violence in Russia happened in 2004 in the city of Beslan, where Islamic militants held more than 1,000 people hostage. After several days of siege, Russian security forces carried out raid, leading to a bloodbath that had killed 334 people, about half of them children. In 2018, a student killed 20 people at his vocational school in the city of Kerch in the occupied Crimean Peninsula before turning the gun on himself.
U.S. Imposes Sanctions for Gas Pipeline, but Exempts German Partner
Biden administration on May 19, 2021 angered both Republicans and Democrats in Congress as Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, currently at Rykjavik, Iceland attending the Arctic Council meeting, imposed sanctions on Moscow for building a natural gas pipeline, but waiving a German firm responsible for overseeing the Nord Stream 2 Project. The project has been 95% complete. Only the German part needs to be built out. Blinken said in a statement issued in Rykjavik that waiving the German partner firm was necessitated to "strengthen the Transatlantic relationships as a matter of national security". The proposed pipeline will put Europe at the throes of Russia's political blackmailing, many political observers believe, and add risks to pipeline disaster and resultant contamination in Ukraine and Poland.
U.S., Germany Agree on Pipeline
U.S. and Germany announced on July 21, 2021 that Washington would not impose any additional sanctions and allow the remaining portions of the Nord Stream 2 Project. Under the deal, both nations have committed to helping out Ukraine and Poland as the proposed pipeline will bypass them.
Investigative News Site's Chief Editor Arrested
In the run-up to the September 19, 2021, parliamentary election, Russian authorities are sweeping through the political landscape to muzzle the voice of dissent, according to many critics of Kremlin. The latest episode bears the testimony of that as police has raided the apartment of the chief editor, Roman Dobrokhotov, of an investigative news site, The Insider, on July 27, 2021 night. Roman Dobrokhotov was taken to custody, but was subsequently released after questioning.
Voting in Russian Parliamentary Polls Begins
The three-day (September 17-19, 2021) voting in the election of lower house of Russian parliament began on September 17, 2021. There is little doubt that United Russia backed by President Vladimir Putin will win the majority of seats in Duma. The question is whether the United Russia party will be able to win two-third majority, a key threshold to amend constitution. Jailed dissident leader Alexi Navalny's political followers are leading a so called Smart Voting campaign to help constituents to identify and vote the strongest opposition candidate.
Putin-backed Political Party Ahead, Distant Second are the Communists, Exit Polls Say
After three days (September 17-19, 2021) of voting to select a new Duma, it seemed that United Russia was heading for another impressive, but not overwhelming, victory, according to exit polls. The distant second is the Communist Party with 21% vote. According to INSOMAR, based on survey in 1,455 polling stations over the past three days, United Russia is expected to get 45.2% of the popular vote. In the run-up to the parliamentary election, Google and Apple removed the so called Smart Voting app from their stores after coming under pressure from Kremlin. The app was designed to guide the voters to choose the strongest opposition candidate.
Putin's Party Solidifies with Supermajority
After Russia's election commission chief announced the official tally on September 20, 2021, it became clear like day light that United Russia Party had won the super majority in Duma. Central Election Commission head Ella Pamfilova said that the turnout in the three-day poll (September 17-19, 2021) was 51.68%, higher than the 2016 turnout rate of 47.88%. Primary opposition party, Communist Party, and others accused the government of vote manipulation, especially over the online voting systems in six regions, including Moscow. Later in the day, police cordoned off the Moscow's Pushkin Square as the Communist Party chief, Gennady Zyuganov, called for demonstration against the vote fraud. Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin refused permission for the rally on the ground of COVID-related restrictions.
United Russia Bags Impressive Number of Seats
The Central Election Commission on September 21, 2021 broke down the election results from the three-day (September 17-19, 2021) parliamentary polls into number of seats won by various political parties. Although less seats won compared to the last parliamentary election, United Russia won 324 of 450 seats in Duma.
Second-highest Ranking American Diplomat to Hold Security Talks with Russians
Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman will lead an inter-agency delegation to Geneva for two-day talks with Russian officials, U.S. State Department has said on September 27, 2021. The talks, set to begin on September 30, 2021, will build on the topics and areas which have been discussed in July 2021 between Sherman and Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov. The July 2021 meeting was held after President Joe Biden and President Vladimir Putin had met on June 16, 2021 at Geneva and decided to hold further talks at the official levels. The July 2021 meeting between Wendy Sherman and Sergey Ryabkov was described by the U.S. State Department as "substantive and professional", but without any concrete outcome. The U.S. State Department said on September 27, 2021 that the upcoming Geneva talks would include "a deliberate and robust dialogue that will seek to lay groundwork for future arms control and risk reduction measures".
Russia Offers to Lift Diplomatic Sanctions to Promote "Mutual Interests"
U.S. Undersecretary of State Victoria Nuland arrived at Russia on October 11, 2021 for three-day talks, and held a high-level meeting on October 12, 2021 with the Russia's deputy foreign minister, Sergey Rybakov. Russian side offered to "lift all restrictions imposed by both parties over the past few years" in order to take a "realistic approach on the basis of equality and taking mutual interests into account", according to a statement issued by the Russian Foreign Ministry. Since 2014, U.S. and Russia had imposed many restrictions on each other's diplomatic missions and activities.
Russia-U.S.
Naval Tiff Closely Averted
As
a joint Russia-China gunnery and naval drill has been in full swing in
the Russian territorial waters of Sea of Japan, a U.S. destroyer, USS
Chafee, has entered, Russian Defense Ministry has alleged on
October 15, 2021, into Russian waters. After repeated warnings fell flat, Russian
Defense Ministry’s statement added, a Russian naval vessel, Admiral
Tributs, came close to the U.S. destroyer. As a result, USS Chafee
left the Peter the Great Gulf. U.S. has yet to acknowledge the incident.
The October 15, 2021, incident occurred about four months after Russian
warships fired warning shots and a Russian warplane dropped a bomb to drive out
a British destroyer, Defender, from the Black Sea waters off the Crimean
City of Sevastopol. Britain, though, refused the Russian account.
Russia
Freezes Relationship with Western Military Alliance
Days
after NATO action in early October 2021 to withdraw the accreditation of eight
Russian diplomats in Brussels on the ground that they were acting as Russian
intelligence personnel and halve the Russian mission there to 10 from 20,
Russia has responded in kind on October 18, 2021 by suspending the
Russian mission in Brussels and closing the NATO office at Moscow. Russian
Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said during the day that “NATO isn’t interested
in any kind of equal dialogue or joint work".
Rights
Group’s Website Blocked by Russian Authorities
Following
a court order issued on December 20, 2021, Russia’s telecommunication regulatory
agency, Roskomnadzor, on December 25, 2021 has blocked the website of OVD-Info,
a group that tracks the number of arrests at opposition-led rallies, protests
and demonstrations. The court at Lukhovitsy, a town 75 miles southeast
of Moscow, took up the case in haste and ordered the website of OVD-Info
blocked, accusing the website of spreading the “propaganda of terrorism and
extremism”. The co-founder of the group, Grigory Okhotin, rejected the
accusation. In September 2021, OVD-Info was bestowed upon the Civil
Rights Defender of the Year award by a prominent human rights group based
in Sweden. That same month, September 2021, Russian authorities
designated the organization as a “foreign agent”. The December 25, 2021,
blocking of the website underlines the continuing pattern of political crackdowns
being unleashed by Kremlin against groups deemed, even remotely, as threatening.
Russian
Court Bans Country’s Oldest Human Rights Group
Russia’s
supreme court on
December 28, 2021 shut down the country’s one of the oldest human rights
groups, Memorial, after the group—consisting of more than 50 smaller
organizations—had failed to take actions to satisfy its designation as a “foreign
agent”. Russian authorities designated Memorial as a “foreign
agent” in 2016. In response to the Russian Supreme Court’s December
28, 2021, decision, Memorial issued a statement, calling the verdict
a “political terror organized and directed by the government”. The decision has
been condemned, too, by Amnesty International, which called it “a
blatant attack on civil society” and U.S. Ambassador John Sullivan.
Sullivan called it “a blatant and tragic attempt to suppress freedom of
expression and erase history”.
************************ DETENTION OF BRITTNEY GRINER ******************
WNBA Star’s Detention Extended for a Month
Brittney Griner, who plays for Phoenix Mercury and is a two-time Olympic Gold
winner, has been brought to a Moscow court on May 13, 2022, and she has
been remanded to custody for another month. Griner was arrested on February 17, 2022 at the Moscow's Sheremetyevo Airport after vape cartridges containing cannabis were found in her luggage. U.S.
later called it a “unlawful detention".
Griner’s Detention Extended for the Third Time
Tass reported on June 14, 2022 that American Gold Medalist and WNBA
star Brittney Grimer would stay behind the bar at least through July
2, 2022. The Khimki District Court of the Moscow region extended Brittney
Griner’s detention for the third time. Last month, the U.S. State
Department reclassified Brittney Griner as wrongfully detained.
Griner to Stand Trial, Detention Extended for Another Six Months
Brittney Griner, shackled and cuffed, was brought to a closed-door hearing at a court in
the Moscow suburb of Khimki on June 27, 2022, At the June 27, 2022,
hearing, Griner’s detention was extended for another six months. Griner was
arrested as the two-time Olympic Gold medalist and Phoenix Mercury center
had returned to a Moscow area airport days before the February 24, 2022, Russian
invasion of Ukraine and found possessing a vape tool. Griner will reappear
before the Khimki District Court on July 1, 2022. Griner was arrested at the Sheremetyevo International Airport when customs officials discovered vape cartridges containing hashish oil in her luggage. Brittney Griner had returned to play with local UMMC Ekaterinburg during WNBA offseason.
House Passes Bipartisan Measure for Griner's Release
U.S. House of Representatives passed a bipartisan resolution on June 28, 2022, calling the Russian Federation to, among others,
(1) Immediately release Griner
(2) Ensure Griner's human rights
(3) Provide full [U.S.] consular access to Griner
Biden Pledges to Free Griner
President Joe Biden on July 6, 2022 told Cherelle Griner, the wife of WNBA star Brittney Griner, that he was committed to secure the release of the Olympic Gold Medalist as soon as possible.
Griner Pleads Guilty to Drug Counts
WNBA star Brittney Griner on July 7, 2022 pleaded guilty to
possessing an illicit drug. The sudden guilty plea raised the possibility of
coercion. In her guilty plea at the Khimki District Court, Brittney Griner said that "I would like to plead guilty on the charges against me", and added that "I had no intention of breaking any Russian law". Griner was arrested on February 17, 2022 at the Moscow's Sheremetyevo Airport after vape cartridges containing cannabis oil were found in her luggage.
Doctor Recommended Cannabis for Griner, Lawyer Tells the Court
A lawyer for WNBA star Brittney Griner, Maria Blagovolina, told a
court on July 15, 2022 that a doctor for her Phoenix Mercury team
had recommended the cannabis and the “permission was issued on behalf of
Arizona Department of health". Brittney Griner's trial began on July 1, 2022.
Mural of Griner, other Captives Unveiled
Relatives of people, who are unjustifiably being held in other nations,
on July 20, 2022 have assembled at Washington D.C. to remember their
loved ones in a unique and innovative way. They marked the unveiling of murals
of 18 “wrongfully detained” captives, including WNBA star Brittney Griner.
Griner's Attorneys Argues Legality of Cannabis in the U.S.
On July 26, 2022, WNBA star Brittney Griner's two attorneys--Alexander Boykov and Maria Blagovolina--argued on the premise of twin lines of defense: (1) two-time Gold Medalist in Olympic Games might have forgotten to take out the vape equipment from her luggage, and (2) Cannabis being legal in the U.S., doctors had recommended it to Griner.
Five court hearings were already held since July 1, 2022.
U.S. Offer for Prisoner Swap Made Public
U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken on July 27, 2022 told reporters in
the Washington D.C. that Biden administration had put “a substantial proposal
on the table weeks ago” for the release of Britney Griner and former Marine
Paul Whelan. America’s top diplomat, though, didn’t share what that “substantial
proposal” was. However, media reports pointed out that it was a prisoner swap
that would facilitate the release of WNBA star Britney Griner and
former Marine Paul Whelan in exchange for the release of Russian arms
merchant Viktor Bout. Whelan was sentenced in 2020 to 16 years in prison
on espionage charges disputed by the family members and U.S. government. Russian
arms dealer Viktor Bout, known as the “merchant of death”, was sentenced
in 2012 to 25 years in prison.
Griner Tells Court of Poor Translation Services, Reiterates
Unintentional Mistake
Testifying for the first time since her landmark trial had begun on July
1, 2022 at the Khimki District Court, WNBA star and two-time
Olympic Gold champion Brittney Griner on July 27, 2022 said that she
had received poor interpretation services of what had been read to her upon
arriving at a Moscow area airport on February 17, 2022. She might have
signed forms without grasping full implication of what she was signing,
according to Griner’s testimony. In addition to poor translation services,
Griner testified on July 27, 2022, she was not read about her rights.
She reiterated that she didn’t know that she was carrying vape cartridges
containing cannabis oil in her luggage, stressing that “I still don’t
understand till this day how they ended up in my bag".
Russia Admonishes Washington against Public Discussion of Prisoner
Exchange Proposal
A day after U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken came out very
publicly that there was already a proposal on the table for weeks for a
prisoner exchange plan that would set WNBA star Brittney Griner and
former Marine Paul Whelan free, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov on July
28, 2022 emphasized on “quiet diplomacy".
Blinken, Lavrov Talk on Prisoner Release
For the first time since February 24, 2022, Russian invasion of
Ukraine, foreign ministers of the USA and Russia spoke on July 29, 2022.
In the conversation over phone, U.S. State Secretary Anthony Blinken and
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov spoke about a proposal of a
possible prisoner swap that U.S. had forwarded to Kremlin days ago. After the
call, Blinken called it a “frank and direct conversation".
Griner Sentenced to Nine-year Prison Term
Russian Judge Anna Sotnikova on August 4, 2022 handed down a
sentence of nine years of prison to WNBA star Brittney Griner. U.S.
President Joe Biden denounced the sentence as “unacceptable”. Griner has 10
days to appeal the verdict issued by the Khimki District Court on August
4, 2022.
Russian Court to Hold Hearing on an Appeal from Griner
A Russian court on October 3, 2022 set October 25, 2022 for
hearing on an appeal by WNBA star Brittney Griner, contesting her
nine-year prison sentence.
Appeals Court Upholds Griner’s Sentence
An appellate court on October 25, 2022 upheld Britney Griner’s
nine-year sentence.
Griner Begins Serving Jail Time at a Russian Penal Colony
WNBA star Brittney Griner began to serve her nine-year sentence at a
penal colony in Mordovia, 210 miles east of Moscow, the two-time Olympic
Gold medalist’s lawyers said on November 17, 2022.
Griner Freed as part of Prisoner Swap
On December 8, 2022, WNBA star Brittney Griner was en route to
the USA as part of a prisoner swap that had also led to the release of Russian
arms smuggler and civil conflict promoter Viktor Bout, or the Merchant
of Death.
Griner Arrives at San Antonio, Taken to a Military Hospital
WNBA star Brittney Griner under darkness arrived at San Antonio’s
Kelly Field on December 9, 2022 around 4:30AM local time. Brittney
Griner was swapped with Viktor Bout, who had been released from an
Illinois federal penitentiary, at Abu Dhabi. Brittney Griner was
taken to Brooks Medical Center for further assessment and check-ups. U.S.
Special Presidential Envoy for Hostage Affairs Roger Carstens tweeted after
a little while and welcomed Brittney Griner, tweeting “Welcome home BG!”
The uneven Griner-Bout swap has drawn some criticism, especially from
Republicans, for leaving the detained former Marine Paul Whelan out of
the deal. Griner family issued a statement, obtained by the ESPN, thanking “you
all for the kind words, thoughts and prayers—including Paul and the Whelan
family who have been generous with their support for Brittney and our family
during what we know is a heartbreaking time".
After Griner, Effort to Seek Release of Whelan Heating up
The Dallas Morning News reported in a front-page article on December
17, 2022 that talks and diplomatic push was going stronger to seek release
of Former Marine Paul Whelan, who had been arrested in December 2018
while attending a wedding at Moscow and sentenced to a 16-year sentence on
espionage charges in 2020. After the release of WNBA star Brittney
Griner on December 8, 2022, U.S. Special Presidential Envoy for Hostage
Affairs Roger Carstens said on a CNN show on December 11, 2022
that he was in touch with Paul Whelan. There are several high-profile Russians
in western custody that Kremlin may be willing to swap for Whelan. Vladislav
Klyushin has been extradited from Switzerland on the charges of hacking
into DNC servers. Russia may be also angling for Vadim Krasikov, who is
serving a life-term at a German prison for a “state-sponsored murder” at the
behest of Russia’s Federal Security Service, or FSB. Two other Russians
are fighting against extradition to the U.S., where they face up to 30 years in
prison on the charges of skirting sanctions of shipping U.S. military
technology and Venezuelan oil to Russia. Yury Orekhov is fighting
extradition in Germany, and Artem Uss, whose father Alexander is the
governor of Siberian region of Krasnoyarsk, is fighting extradition in the
Italian legal system. There are other Russians under U.S. detention, including
alleged hacker Roman Seleznev and alleged money launderer Alexander
Vinnik.
************************ DETENTION OF BRITTNEY GRINER ******************
Daughter of Russian Exceptionalist Theory Assassinated
The TV anchor daughter of Alexander Dugin, one of the contemporary
Greater Russia protagonists and a nationalist writer, was killed on August
20, 2022 night as her SUV exploded with a planted bomb. 29-year-old
Daria Dugina just attended an event just outside Moscow in the evening
along with her father, Alexander Dugin, a key proponent and a theorist
of the so called “New Russia”, or “Novorossiya”, concept. Dugin was
supposed to return in the same SUV, but changed the plan at the last minute,
leading many to believe that the intended target was the nationalist father of the
TV commentator. Russia specialists believe that Alexander Dugin is an
informal adviser to President Vladimir Putin and a staunch supporter of February
24, 2022, Russian aggression of Ukraine. Daria Dugina was placed
under the U.S. sanctions in March 2022 as she was chief editor of a
pro-Kremlin website, United World International, a key conveyor of
disinformation and fake news. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky
denied any role behind the explosion that had killed Daria Dugina,
saying that “we are not a criminal state, unlike Russia".
Ex-Soviet Leader Mikhail Gorbachev Passes away
The last Soviet leader, Mikhail Gorbachev, whose historic Glasnost
and Perestroika had unleashed the scale of change that had brought
about the most profound change in the Soviet history, but eventually led to its
demise and engulfed his own legacy, passed away on August 30, 2022.
Putin to Skip Gorbachev’s Funeral
Never a fan of late Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev, Russian
President Vladimir Putin will not attend the funeral of Gorbachev scheduled
for September 3, 2022. Putin visited a Moscow hospital on September
1, 2022 to pay his homage to the champion of Glasnost and Perestroika.
Putin will visit the Baltic military exclave of Kaliningrad on September
3, 2022. Gorbachev will be buried beside his wife Raisa at the Novodevichy
cemetery. A farewell will be held in the Pillar Hall of the House of
the Unions.
Gorbachev Laid to Rest beside His Wife
Ex-Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev on September 3, 2022 was laid
to rest beside his wife, Raisa. Thousands of people lined up at the Pillar
Hall of the House of the Unions in Moscow to pay their homage to the architect
of Glasnost and Perestroika.
Former FBI Counterintelligence Official Arrested, Charged
A former FBI counterintelligence official, Charles McGonigal, who
worked in New York investigating Russian oligarchs between 2016 and 2018, ended
up working for one of them. Separately, McGonigal was charged on taking
money from a former foreign security officer. Charles McGonigal, an indictment
unsealed on January 23, 2023 said, worked with a former Soviet
diplomat-turned-interpreter, Sergey Shestakov, on behalf of billionaire
Russian oligarch Oleg Deripaska. Sergey Shestakov was arrested at
his Morris, Connecticut home on January 21, 2023. Charles McGonigal
was arrested on January 21, 2023 after arriving at John F. Kennedy
International Airport. U.S. Treasury added Oleg Deripaska to the
sanctions list in 2018. In September 2022, federal prosecutors in Manhattan
indicted Deripaska and three associates on charges of conspiracy to violate U.S.
sanctions rules.
Putin’s Key Inner Circle Member Defects
The Associated Press reported on April 4, 2023 that one of the trusted and longtime
communication security officials for Russian President Vladimir Putin had
defected to the west in mid-October 2022. As an engineer in a field unit of the
presidential communication department of the Federal Security Office, or
FSO, Gleb Karakulov was responsible for setting up the secure communication
system for Putin. According to The Associated Press, Gleb Karakulov, his
wife and daughter boarded a flight on October 14, 2022 from Kazakhstan
to Turkey.
Russia Scales down Victory Day
Reflecting the present state of affairs of Russian army, Russia has
scaled down the celebratory events to mark this year’s Victory Day. The
real concern was the fear of drone strikes deep inside Russia, thus forcing the
authorities cancel all airshows on May 9, 2023. Russian President
Vladimir Putin said that a “real war has been unleashed against our
motherland”. The number of troops that participated in the parade at Moscow’s
Red Square was circa 8,000, the lowest since 2008. Many of the Russian
troops are deployed in the frontline.
************************************ MUTINY BY WAGNER MECENARIES ***************
Charges Dropped against Wagner Mercenaries; Leader Allowed to Exile in
Belarus
Sudden unraveling of an already tense relationship between Wagner
Group and Russian Defense Ministry began after a Russian [most
likely, an accidental] attack had killed scores of Wagner fighters in Ukraine.
On June 23, 2023, Wagner Group head Yevgeny Prigozhin announced a
march on the Kremlin and declared an open mutiny. Prigozhin is a long-time
critic of Russian defense officials in general, and Defense Minister Sergei
Shoigu in particular, frequently calling for his ouster. Although President
Vladimir Putin tolerated Prigozhin’s open defiance in the past, this mutiny was
the last straw for Putin. Wagner mercenaries, racing from Ukraine towards
Moscow, crossed the Russian border, and seized a military base at the city of Rostov-on-Don
in the wee hours of June 24, 2023. The Kremlin and Putin threatened to
crush the mutiny and charged Prigozhin and his participating mercenaries on “treason".
As Wagner Group mercenaries reached as close as 120 miles south of
Moscow on June 24, 2023, reports emerged of a deal to avert bloodshed.
Under the deal, all charges against Yevgeny Prigozhin will be dropped
and he will go to Belarus for an uncertain exile. Wagner mercenaries who have
participated in the march on the Kremlin will be allowed to go back to their
bases without facing charges.
Putin Calls the Rebellion Organizers Traitors
Addressing Russians on June 26, 2023, Russian President
Vladimir Putin blasted the organizers of the short-lived rebellion led by Wagner
Group founder Yevgeny Prigozhin as “traitors” who had been taken advantage
by Ukraine and its allies. Although Putin didn’t call Prigozhin by name, it was
clear who he was referring to. Earlier in the day, Yevgeny Prigozhin
boasted in an 11-minute video on how his soldiers had marched unopposed
hundreds of miles before turning around on June 24, 2023 after a deal
was brokered by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko. However, it’s
not clear on June 26, 2023 where Prigozhin is right now. Many observers
now do believe that the short-lived mutiny, among other factors, may be in response
to recent Russian effort to get all private armies to sign a key agreement with
the Russian Defense Ministry by July 1, 2023. In many ways, that’s the
death knell to Wagner’s independent operation without much accountability. Yevgeny
Prigozhin often criticize and mock Russian army, and his two favorite
targets are Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and General Staff Chief Gen.
Valery Gerasimov.
Prigozhin Arrives at Belarus
The Associated Press reported on June 27, 2023 that Wagner Group founder Yevgeny
Prigozhin had arrived at Belarus. Russian authorities dropped all charges
against Prigozhin and other members.
Russian General Linked to Wagner Founder Detained
The deputy head of Russian military operation in Ukraine, Gen. Sergei
Surovikin, had been detained in the aftermath of an aborted mutiny by Wagner
Group founder Yevgeny Prigozhin, according to a June 29, 2023, report
from The Associated Press based on Ukrainian and American intelligence. Prigozhin
was often appreciative of Surovikin and, implicitly or not so implicitly, suggested
Gen. Sergei Surovikin replace Chief of General Staff Gen. Valery
Gerasimov.
Wagner Boss’ Post-Mutiny Meeting with Putin Confirmed
That Wagner mercenary group founder Yevgeny Prigozhin had met
in-person with President Vladimir Putin after an hours-long drama that
had brought Wagner mercenaries as close to as some hundred miles from Moscow in
an apparent challenge to Putin’s authority was confirmed on July 10, 2023 by
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov. Putin called Prigozhin—who as part of a
deal mediated by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko was sent in
exile to Russia’s closest ally among the Former Soviet Republics—as backstabbing
traitor. The June 29, 2023, meeting lasted for about 3-and-half hours
and was participated in by several Wagner commanders and Prigozhin. Peskov
called the meeting an opportunity for an assessment of Wagner Group’s
performance in the Ukrainian battlefield as well as “the events of June 24".
Wagner Chief Killed in Plane Crash
In a saga of a Russian mystery novel, a private plane carrying 10
passengers from St. Petersburg to Moscow crashed in the village of Kuzhenkino
on August 23, 2023. Interfax reported early August 24, 2023
that one of the dead was Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin. Although no
reason was known so far behind the plane crash, the rumors and conspiracy
theories abounded and multiplied on social media. In the context of the plane
crash, many pundits are now saying that this is an inevitable outcome for a
former Putin loyalist cum putschist who has led a brief mutiny against Vladimir
Putin in June 2023. CIA Director William Burns said on July 23, 2023 at
the Aspen Security Conference that Putin “is the ultimate apostle of
payback” who liked to take revenge “in dish best served cold".
Putin Asks Wagner Founder’s Deputy to Lead the Mercenary Army
On September 29, 2023, President Vladimir Putin formally asked one
of the former confidantes to the deceased Wagner chief, Yevgeny Prigozhin,
to take over the ragtag army unit and transform it to a robust military unit.
Putin asked Andrei Troshev to remake the “volunteer units that could
perform various combat tasks".
************************************ MUTINY BY WAGNER MECENARIES ***************
Reporter, Lawyer Beaten up in Broad Daylight in Chechnya
In a violent incident that reflects how serious the government-backed
high-handedness is in Chechnya, several masked goons used their vehicles
to stop a car carrying an investigative reporter from Novaya Gazeta, Elena
Milashina, and a rights lawyer, Alexander Nemov, and beat them with
clubs. The duo had been en route from a nearby airport to a courthouse to
attend the trial of Zarema Musayeva, mom of two activists who had
challenged Chechen authorities. Both the investigative journalist and human
rights lawyer required hospitalization.
********************** CTBT ****************
Russian Parliament Revokes Treaty Ratification
The lower house of the Russian parliament, Duma, on October 18, 2023
unanimously voted to revoke the ratification of the Comprehensive Test Ban
Treaty. It was the third and final reading in Duma to revoke a 1996
treaty to ban nuclear tests and ratified by the Russian lawmakers in 2000.
President Vladimir Putin said during a visit to Beijing that although Russia
was on its way to complete the revocation process, it would not begin nuclear
testing. Instead, this step was taken to bring parity with other nations such
as the U.S., India, China, and Pakistan as none of their legislative bodies had
ratified the treaty.
Russian Upper Chamber Rescinds CTBT Ratification
On October 25, 2023, Russian upper chamber of parliament approved
a vote to revoke the ratification of the 1996 Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban
Treaty. Hours later, Russia carried out a simulated nuclear test overseen
by President Vladimir Putin.
********************** CTBT ****************
********************************* CFE *******************************
NATO Nations Suspend a Key Conventional Arms Treaty after Moscow’s
Withdrawal
One arms treaty after another is falling wayside, making the world a
more dangerous place by the day, thanks to deteriorating relations between the
West and Russia. The latest victim is the Treaty of Conventional Armed
Forces in Europe, or CFE, a 1990 treaty signed by then-Soviet Union and many
NATO member nations—including the United States—banning massing of troops at each
other’s borders. The treaty was ratified two years later.
Russia’s withdrawal from the CFE was complete on November 7, 2023
after an arduous process of President Vladimir Putin sending a bill to
Russian parliament to this effect and country’s parliament rubber-stamping
Putin’s wish list. Hours later November 7, 2023, NATO signatories announced
that they would suspend the CFE to avoid “a situation where allied state
parties abide by the treaty, while Russia does not” because that “would be
unsustainable".
New START is now the only treaty marginally standing while landmark agreements
such as Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty and Comprehensive
Nuclear Test Ban Treaty, or CTBT, all have fallen wayside.
********************************* CFE *******************************
************************* RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION *************************
Presidential Election Scheduled for Spring Next Year
The upper house of the Russian parliament, Federation Council, on
December 7, 2023 voted unanimously to approve a measure to schedule the
next presidential poll on March 17, 2024. Russian President Vladimir
Putin is likely to run in the March 17, 2024, presidential election.
Whoever is his opponent, it’s likely to be cakewalk for Putin.
Under Russian constitution, anyone running for president either should
be backed by a political party represented in the Duma, or the lower
house of the parliament. If the candidate is backed by a political party which
does not have any representative in Duma, they need to get signatures
from at least 100,000 voters from at least 40 regions. Anyone running
independently such as Putin’s candidacy in 2018 requires at least 400,000
signatures from at least 40 regions.
Putin Wins Presidential Election, Set to Become Longest Serving Leader
Since Stalin
In the March 15-17, 2024, election in the vast nation of 11 time
zones, it was all but assured that President Vladimir Putin would win another
six-year term, cementing his rule as one of the longest-serving rulers in the
Russian history. On the evening of March 17, 2024, the results showed
that Putin was winning over his three little-known opponents by receiving 87.2%
of the vote. However, many Russian voters heeded calls from the opposition and went
to local polling stations around noon at many places in Moscow and other
cities, including overseas polling stations at Berlin, London, Paris, and other
European capitals. Yulia Navalnaya, widow of former Russian
opposition leader Alexie Navalny, showed up outside the Russian Embassy at
Berlin and voted for his husband as a write-in candidate.
************************* RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION *************************
Attack on Music Venue Kills Dozens, Islamic State Claims Responsibility
On March 22, 2024, assailants attacked the Crocus City Hall,
a 6200-seat sprawling music hall on the western edge of Moscow, firing randomly
at the crowd and throwing flammable objects. In the ensuing pandemonium, scores
of people were trampled in addition to many who had been hit by bullets. The hall
caught fire, and dozens of firetrucks were reported to be rushing to the scene
to extinguish the fire. At least 60 people were reported killed and more than
100 injured, including many who had been injured severely.
The Islamic State claimed the responsibility for the gruesome
attack on the Crocus City Hall. Separately, The Associated Press
reported later on March 22, 2024 that U.S. intelligence had warned in recent days that there might be an IS-orchestrated attack in the
planning stage.
Death Toll Mounts to 130
As the Crocus City Hall lay charred on March 23, 2024, the
death toll rose to 130. Authorities reported that four Tajiks were
arrested in connection with the March 22, 2024, attack on the 6200-seat
sprawling music venue, host to the 2013 Miss Universe pageant event featured
by Donald Trump. Assailants opened fire on the concertgoers at close
range, sprayed bullets indiscriminately and lobbed firebombs that had set the
hall ablaze. The roof of the music hall collapsed because of the heat of the
spreading fire. Russian authorities said that the assailants had tried to flee
to Ukraine. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky blasted a section of
Russian authorities for trying to shift the blame on Kyiv.
The U.S. Embassy in Moscow issued a warning on March 7, 2024
that the Islamic State of Khorasan was planning to carry out a terrorist
strike. The attack came 15 days after the U.S. Embassy warning, targeting a
renowned concert hall at the suburb of Krasnogorsk on the western edge
of Moscow. The Islamic State of Khorasan claimed responsibility
for the attack.
TURKMENISTAN
Turkmenistan’s Presidential Succession Elevates Son
A week after he had won the presidential election by receiving more than
73% of the vote in a nine-candidate race, Serdar Berdymukhamedov on
March 19, 2022 was sworn in as the president of Turkmenistan. The
40-year-old son of Former President Gurbanguly Berdymukhamedov was the
chosen successor after the father had announced last month that he would step
down after running the former Soviet Republic of 6 million people on the
Caspian Sea since 2006. In his inauguration, the new president vowed to make
his nation “open to all countries and peoples of the world".
UKRAINE
On December 25, 2013, Ukrainians from all walks of life voiced strong denunciation against the physical attack against a well-known reporter and activist, Tetyana Chernovil, earlier in the day. Chernovil was a constant presence at Kiev's Independence Square since November 2013 when hundreds of thousands of protesters began to camp out on daily basis to protest against President Viktor Yanukovych's refusal to sign a pact with EU.
In a controversial and politically polarizing show of force, at least 15,000 people marched on the streets of Kiev on January 1, 2014 to mark the 105th birth anniversary of Stepan Bandera, an early twentieth century nationalist, whom many Ukrainians came to view as Nazi collaborator. Bandera, as a leader of Organization of Ukrainian Nationalists, fought alongside Germany during 1930s and 1940s to seek country's independence from the then-USSR.
As the daily protests against the Yanukovich regime began to ebb in recent days, violence returned to Kiev on January 19, 2014 with thousands clashing with security forces in response to a legislation passed just days ago (January 16, 2014) meant to crack down heavily on the protest movement. Opposition leader Vitali Klitschko traveled to presidential palace later in the day (January 19) to meet with President Viktor Yanukovych. Coming out of the presidential palace, Klitschko said that president had agreed to negotiate.
The violence continued for the second day on January 20, 2014, with masked protesters hurling bricks, cobblestones, flares and Molotov cocktails against the security forces. Kiev's Grushevsky Street, a thoroughfare that leads to government seat, parliament and other agencies, looked like a war zone.
On January 22, 2014, the situation took into an uglier turn since the protest movement morphed into a civil disobedience after the security forces broke up a gathering on November 30, 2013 as young protesters waged a pitched battle with government forces around the Independence Square. Two protesters--according to some accounts, three protesters--were killed in the ensuing clashes on January 22, 2014. Earlier in the day (January 22, 2014), a three-hour meeting between President Viktor Yanukovych and opposition leaders yielded nothing. Addressing the a 40,000-strong crowd at Independence Square, opposition leaders including Vitali Klitschko and Arseniy Yatsenyuk demanded that the President, within 24 hours, dismiss the government of Prime Minister Mykola Azarov, call early elections and scrap anti-protest legislation that was passed days ago and had instigated the recent bout of violence.
The situation in Ukraine began slipping out of authority's hands on January 24, 2014 as violence not only returned to the streets of Kiev, new protests also erupted across the country from cities such as Lviv, Ternopil, Ivano-Frankivsk, Chernovsty and Rivne, where demonstrators seized various government buildings. President Viktor Yanukovych met with religious leaders on January 24, 2014, and as part of the solution to the political gridlock, promised to free political prisoners, amend harsh anti-protest legislation and take measures against police personnel responsible for November 30, 2014, violent crackdown on the protesters in Kiev. However, Yanukovych's promise fell on deaf ears as the opposition leader Vitali Klitschko on January 24, 2014 categorically called for Yanukovych's resignation.
Opposition rejected on January 25, 2014 the presidential proposal earlier in the day to make Arseniy Yatsenyuk as Prime Minister and Vitali Klitschko as Deputy Prime Minister. Instead the opposition called for presidential resignation. The opposition rejection of President Viktor Yanukovych's offer had two potential reasons--first, not to let the pressure off the Viktor Yanukovych regime, and the second, more importantly, to preserve the opposition unity as the presidential proposal, according to many political analysts, that left out nationalist Svoboda Party leader Oleg Tyagnibok might be a political ploy to divide the opposition.
On January 26, 2014, protesters seized the Justice Ministry building at Kiev while tens of thousands of opposition supporters attended the funeral procession of one of the three slain opposition protesters, Mikhail Zhiznevsky. Also, on January 26, 2014, protest movement spread to country's east and center, a region known to have more support for Viktor Yanukovych.
Premier Nikola Azarov resigns
In a rapid succession of events on January 28, 2014, Ukrainian Prime Minister Nikola Azarov, a much reviled political figure by protest opposition, resigned and the draconian anti-protest laws passed on January 16, 2014 were scrapped by the country's parliament. However, any of these actions on behalf of the regime is not likely to soothe the anger and angst in the Kiev's streets as opposition's days-ago demand that President Viktor Yanukovych resign was not met and, more importantly, Deputy P.M. Serhiy Abruzov, another hardliner of the regime, stepped in to replace Azarov to become country's interim premier. Meanwhile, Kiev is facing a serious economic crunch and barely survived by a December 2013 $3 billion in Russian aid to buy back government bonds as part of up to a $15 billion in economic aid pledged by Kremlin in November 2013.
Amnesty Measures, Scrapping of anti-protest laws Passed
In a quick succession, Ukranian parliament on January 28, 2014 approved suspension of anti-protest laws passed by parliament on January 16, 2014, and followed up next day (January 29) to pass an amnesty measure for jailed protesters. However, the amnesty measure has a string attached to it: protesters have to vacate the government buildings first before the law becomes effective. However, President Yanukoych didn't sign any of these laws as he had to take sick leave on January 30, 2014 for respiratory illness.
Kerry Pitches for Ukrainians' Rights for Self-Determination at a Munich Security Conference
Addressing a security conference at Munich, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry on February 1, 2014 defended the rights of Ukrainian people to align with Europe without being intimidated by any other country. Without naming Russia, Kerry made it clear that Ukraine's destiny on how to choose partners should reside with the Ukrainian people. Later in the day, Kerry met with Ukrainian opposition leaders and urged them to continue negotiation with the government. Addressing the same security conference, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov blasted the western governments for meddling in the internal affairs of Ukraine, and asked how a government could tolerate occupying buildings and government offices in the name of protest movement. U.S. Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel, addressing the same conference, called for a "trans-Atlantic renaissance" through a subtle and suitable balance of diplomacy and defense.
E.U. Calls for Reforms
European Union's Finance Ministers on February 10, 2014 issued a joint statement in Brussels calling for Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych to form an inclusive government to "pursue economic and political reforms". The unrest that began in late November 2013 in protest against President Viktor Yanukovych's refusal to sign a trade and economic pact with EU and instead agreeing to accept a $15 billion aid package from Russia had spiraled into a state of anarchy with the currency tumbling, economy souring and Kremlin suspending the aid package.
Protesters Withdraw from City Hall and Russia Unlocks the Aid
Heeding to government's call to vacate office buildings, opposition protesters on February 16, 2014 withdrew from Kiev's City Hall, but vowed to return if all charges against the political activists were not dropped. However, the opposition continued occupying the Independence Square and demanding the resignation of President Viktor Yanukovych. On February 17, 2014, Kremlin decided to unfreeze $15 billion in aid package to Ukraine as pledged--after President Yanukovych refused to sign a trade and economic pact with the European Union in November 2013, thus precipitating a months-long crisis--and subsequently suspended.
Kiev Erupts in Violence
In a dangerous escalation, violence erupted on February 18, 2014 at the heart of Kiev as protesters attacked the security forces and the security personnel responded with fatal degree of force to disperse the mob. Unruly youths set tires, rubbers and other inflammable materials aflame on various streets of Kiev, and black plume of smoke darkened the Kiev sky. At the end of the day (February 18, 2014), at least 26 people were killed, including seven police personnel. U.S. Vice President Joe Biden made a frantic phone call to President Viktor Yanukovych on February 18, 2014 after loss of several lives was reported earlier in the day, and asked for maximum restraint, expressing "grave concern" by the turn of the events. U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine Geoffrey Payatt in his twitter message on February 18, 2014 warned both sides of consequence of violence and possible sanctions. The violence in Ukraine racked a nerve in Europe in a way that even Germany, which had earlier opposed to sanctions on the Yanukovych regime, had become alarmed by the turn of February 18, 2014, events in Kiev. German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier on February 18, 2014 reminded the Yanukovych regime that the government bore a special responsibility for de-escalating the situation on the streets of Kiev.
Uneasy Truce Called
A day after disproportionate degree of violence engulfed Kiev that had killed at least 26 people, there was renewed threat of military's involvement and scrambling by both sides to avert catastrophic turn of future events on February 19, 2014. An uneasy truce was reached by President Viktor Yanukovych and his political rivals that called for country's security forces to show restraints. Meanwhile, foreign ministers from three EU countries, Poland, Germany and France, will go to Kiev on February 20, 2014 to mediate peace. The February 18, 2014, violence racked a raw nerve in international community so much that the U.S. President Barack Obama had to step in from Toluca in Mexico where he was attending on February 19, 2014 a summit of NAFTA leaders to mark the 20th anniversary of the North American trade bloc. Obama warned February 19, 2014 from Toluca, Mexico that Viktor Yanukovych regime would be held responsible for any untoward incidents in Ukraine.
Violence Returns to Kiev, This Time at an Alarming Level
Violence rotted the streets of Kiev with an unimaginable degree of grotesque and cruelty as security forces fired live on protesters on February 20, 2014 and the angry protesters setting ablaze buildings and vehicles at random. At the end of the day on February 20, 2014, Ukrainian government reported at least 39 deaths and opposition sources put the figure as high as 70. Meanwhile, several of lawmakers allied with Viktor Yanukovych's political party deserted their former boss on February 20, 2014, and joined hands with opposition lawmakers to pass a resolution that called for immediate return of security personnel to barracks and prohibition of firearms against the protesters. Meanwhile, three EU foreign ministers--Polish, German and French foreign ministers--held a 4-hour inconclusive session with Viktor Yanukovych on February 20, 2014 and were staying overnight to continue discussion on February 21, 2014. Meanwhile, in a humiliating gesture, protesters on February 20, 2014 paraded more than 60 police personnel through streets of Kiev after seizing them.
Deal Signed to Avert Crisis to Spiral Out of Hand
At the behest of three EU foreign ministers and Russia, Viktor Yanukovych government and opposition signed an agreement on February 21, 2014 that called for, among others,
(1) early presidential elections (most likely in December 2014)
(2) a return to 2004 constitution that severely limited presidential authority
(3) establishment of a caretaker government.
Meanwhile, Ukraine's parliament passed a series of resolutions on February 21, 2014 to
* Free former premier Yulia Tymoshenko, who has been languishing in a Ukrainian jail since August 2011
* Provide blanket amnesty to thousands of protesters
* Provide financial aid to families of dead and injured
President Ousted
Ukraine's parliament on February 22, 2014 ousted country's president Viktor Yanukovych , and declared May 25, 2014 as presidential polls date. Within hours of dismissal of president, jailed former premier Yulia Tymoshenko was released from a prison hospital bed in eastern Ukraine, and the heroine of 2004 Orange Revolution went straight to the podium erected at Kiev's Independence Square to the applause of tens of thousands of protesters. Addressing a boisterous crowd at Independence Square on February 22, 2014, Tymoshenko called out the crowd by saying "you changed everything". She also honored 88 Ukrainians killed since February 18, 2014. The parliamentary vote to dismiss President Viktor Yanukovych was a lopsided 380-0, as many of the Yanukovych allies either abstained or stayed out the voting process. Meanwhile, ousted President Viktor Yanukovych appeared in the eastern city of Kharkiv later on February 22, 2014 and reiterated that he still remained the president of the country. The recent crisis in Ukraine exposed a dangerous cultural, linguistic and regional rift that was long dormant in the country. Western Ukraine has been sympathetic to closer integration with Europe and always been skeptical of Moscow. The primary language in western part of Ukraine is Ukrainian. However, Yanukovych and his allies draw support from the eastern and southern parts of Ukraine, where the influence of Russia is still strong and many speak Russian. Crimea region in Southern Ukraine has strong ties with Russia, which maintains a big naval base at Sevastopol on the Black Sea. Many Crimeans have long-standing demand for more autonomy from Kiev. The recent crisis had its roots back in 2009 when European Union announced Eastern Partnership program with former Soviet republics, including Ukraine. Russia always saw European eagerness for a deepening bond between former Soviet republics and EU with suspicion. Under apparent Russian pressure, Viktor Yanukovych refused to sign a trade and economic deal with EU in November 2013, triggering the recent crisis.
Ukrainian Lawmakers Show New Assertiveness and Manhunt Issued for Ousted President
Ukrainian lawmakers on February 23, 2014 dismantled cabinet, and voted to give the speaker of parliament, Oleksander Turchynov, the authority to lead the nation and rebuild the government. Meanwhile, in a sign of growing influence of the former premier in the nation's politics, Yulia Tymoshenko on February 23, 2014 fielded calls from several international leaders including German Chancellor Angela Merkel; U.S. Senators John McCain, Republican-AZ; Christopher Murphy, D-Conn.; and Richard Durbin; D-Ill; respectively. Meanwhile on February 23, 2014, ousted President Viktor Yanukovych's party, Party of Regions, distanced itself from the president and blamed him for the anarchy and bloodshed.
On February 24, 2014, a nationwide manhunt was issued to nab ousted President Viktor Yanukovych .
A New Coalition Government Formed
Amid a plunging hyrvnia, Ukraine's currency, hyperinflation rate and credit crunch, the international community, EU and USA have been scrambling to help the former Soviet state to pull out of the economic morass. The U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry pledged $1 billion in emergency aid package on February 26, 2014 for the beleaguered nation and warned Russia not to make mistakes by toying the idea of military intervention in Ukraine. Hours earlier, Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered large-scale military exercises in the country's west bordering Ukraine, raising fear of invasion. Also, pro-Russian demonstration continued for the third successive day on February 26, 2014 in the Crimean capital of Simferopol. There is a strong undercurrent of pro-Russian sentiment in the Crimea region because of the region's history of being part of Russia until 1954 when the region was ceded to the former Soviet Socialist Republic of Ukraine. On February 26, 2014, pro-Russian Crimean demonstrators and pro-Kiev Muslim Tatars came almost close to fist-fighting and scuffling. Meanwhile, back in Kiev, on late February 26, 2014, opposition leader Arseniy Yatsenyuk, a former finance minister, speaker of parliament, foreign minister and current head of country's central bank, was named the country's interim premier and other members of an interim cabinet. Underlining the importance of the recent street protests and how far they came to define Ukrainian politics, the cabinet was first introduced to the tens of thousands of protesters at the Independence Square before presenting to country's parliament. One by one, each of the members of proposed cabinet was introduced on February 26, 2014 on the podium at the Independence Square.
Chaos in Crimea; Obama Warns Russia; Ousted Ukrainian President Addresses Reporters
On February 27, 2014, masked gunmen were seen taking control of Crimea's parliamentary buildings, domestic terminal of the capital's airport and other government facilities in the capital, Simferopol. Many western political analysts believe that the gunmen are Russian military personnel which Moscow vehemently denies. Ukraine's acting president and speaker of parliament, Oleksander Turchynov, warned Russia not to mobilize its forces from designated naval base. Meanwhile, Ukraine's parliament on February 27, 2014 chose Arseniy Yatsenyuk as country's new premier.
On February 28, 2014, US President Barack Obama warned Russia not to provoke crisis in Crimea as there would be "costs" associated with such act. Meanwhile, Ukraine's acting president, Oleksander Turchynov, on February 28, 2014 alleged that Russia had begun "annexation of territory", referring to Crimea as reports indicated a large scale movement of gunmen in Crimea, including taking effective control of government buildings in the capital, seizing two airports--one at the capital, Simferopol, and another at Belbek--close to Russia's Black Sea Fleet headquarters of Sevastapol. Although the movement of Russian military vehicles and personnel is common in Crimea, February 28, 2014, movement of heavy armored convoys and camouflaged personnel is rather unusual. Moscow justified its movement of troops and personnel in Crimea as an act with full compliance with the lease that was extended until 2042 as part of a deal for Ukraine to receive Russian natural gas at a discount. Unknown gunmen also took control of several Crimean hubs of Ukrainian telecom company Urktelecom, and Ukrainian International Airlines suspended its flights to Simferopol Airport.
Meanwhile, the ousted Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych appeared at a press conference at the western Russian city of Rostov-on-Don on February 28, 2014, and proclaimed that he still remained country's lawful president. Yanukovych also blasted the opposition for torpedoing an accord reached on February 21, 2014 at the behest of Polish, German and French foreign ministers that would keep Yanukovych in presidency up to at least December 2014 until new presidential polls were held. However, the deal unraveled within 24 hours and Yanukovych fled Kiev. During press conference on February 28, 2014, Yanukovych vowed to return to Kiev and also opposed any potential foreign intervention, including that of Russia. Meanwhile, three Alpine states--Austria, Switzerland and Liechtenstein--on February 28, 2014 clamed down on the asset of Viktor Yanukovych and his son, Aleksander. Besides the Swiss authorities opened a money laundering investigation on February 28, 2014 against father-son duo.
Russia Seizes Crimea Region
In a stormy unfolding of events on March 1, 2014, Crimean premier Sergei Aksyonov declared that he had sole control over region's military and police, and asked Russian President Vladimir Putin to safeguard his region. In a rapid-fire response, Russia's upper house of parliament gave Putin the authority to act appropriately in response to Aksyonov's plea. Within hours, heavily armed men, speaking Russian, fanned out across Crimea in what was termed by pro-west interim government of Ukraine as aggression and by the US President Barack Obama, who called a day earlier that there would be costs if Russia launched aggression, as a serious "breach of international law" and a "clear violation" of Ukrainian sovereignty. US also threatened to suspend preparatory talks with Russia in the run-up to G8 summit in the summer of 2014 to be held at Sochi. President Obama held a 90-minute tense conference call with Putin on March 1, 2014. Ukrainian government on March 1, 2014 called an emergency meeting to take stock of Crimean situation, and sought western help with a reminder of the landmark 1994 Budapest Memorandum that Kiev had signed at that time with Russia, Britain and the USA, calling for transferring its Soviet-era nuclear weapons to Russia for disposal in exchange for its territorial integrity.
Crimean History at a Glance
* Crimea fell to Russia in the late 18th century as the Catherine the Great's troops defeated their Tatar hosts allied with the Ottoman Port after decades of hostilities.
* Crimean Peninsula juts into the Black Sea, all but an island except a narrow strip in the north connecting it to the Ukrainian mainland. On its eastern side, the peninsula has finger like land mass that comes close to Russia, where in 1945 a summit, known as Yalta Conference, took place among Josef Stalin, F.D. Roosevelt and Winston Churchill that had hammered out and sealed a deal on partitioning postwar Europe.
* Former Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev handed over the Crimea to his native republic in 1954.
* After break-up of Soviet in 1991, Tatars, who were forcibly deported by Stalin in 1944, returned to their native peninsula, and currently account for 12 percent of 2 million of the peninsula's population.
* Crimea is also host to Russia's Black Sea Fleet and its tens of thousands of navy personnel.
* In 2009, pro-west president of Ukraine, Viktor Yushchenko, issued warning that Russia had to leave the key port of Sevastapol by 2017. Next year (2010), pro-Russian Viktor Yanukovych was elected president of Ukraine and the lease was extended to 2042.
Ukraine on the Brink, West Mulls Punitive Measures
A day after Russia captured the Crimean Peninsula without firing a single shot, Ukrainian government on March 2, 2014 put its military on high alert amid fear that Russia might expand its siege to the east of the country where a sprawling anti-Kiev protest camp had been already put in the central square of the region's largest city, Kharkiv, with Russian flags were seen in abundance. Meanwhile, outrage mounted over western capitals over Russia's March 1, 2014, sweeping siege of Crimea with US Secretary of State John Kerry on March 2, 2014 calling it "an incredible act of aggression". President Barack Obama on March 2 held talks over phone with world leaders such as German Chancellor Angela Merkel, British premier David Cameron and Polish President Bronislaw Komorowski. NATO also held an emergency session in Brussels on March 2, 2014, and issued a strongly worded statement condemning "Russia's military escalation in Crimea" and demanding that Russia comply with its obligation under the U.N. charter. Meanwhile, armed men speaking Russian, but without any insignia on the uniform, were seen on March 2, 2014 everywhere in Crimea. As a stern response to Russian action in Crimea, Obama administration on March 2, 2014 canceled an upcoming trade mission to Moscow as well as an energy-related meeting in Washington.
Russia Tightens its Grip on Crimea, US Scraps upcoming Naval Exercises
Russia on March 3, 2014 tightened its noose around Crimea by injecting more troops, imposing a naval blockade of Ukraine's two navy ships--corvette Ternopil and command ship Slavutych--near the Crimean port of Sevastapol--an act called as "piracy" by Ukraine's acting President Oleksander Turchynov, and taking over control of the strategic Crimean city of Kerch, which is located at a protruding eastern part of the peninsula just miles off the Russian coast. During the day, Obama administration scrapped an upcoming joint naval exercises, a day after suspending trade and energy talks. However, a rigid Kremlin stuck to its own playbook with action in the ground as well as on diplomatic front. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, addressing a Human Rights Council meeting at Geneva on March 3, 2014, criticized the west for interference with Ukrainian internal affairs and demanded the implementation of a February 21, 2014, agreement signed by former Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych and country's opposition leaders with a seal of approval by foreign ministers from three EU nations--France, Germany and Poland. Under that agreement, a national unity government was proposed to be formed and elections to be held in December 2014 to elect a new president. Meanwhile, in response to worsening situation in Ukraine, speculators took advantage in the world stock markets on March 3, 2014, plunging values from Russia's RTS Index to New York's DOW JONES and dropping the value of ruble to all time low (1 US Dollar-to-37 ruble). In response to falling ruble, Russia's central bank raised a key interest rate by 1.5 percentage point to 7 percent in an effort to prevent outflow of foreign capital.
Putin Justifies Russia's Action, Kerry Offers $1 billion Loan Guarantee to Ukraine
Addressing the reporters for the first time since the Ukrainian situation had started unraveling, Russian President Vladimir Putin on March 4, 2014 justified Russian action in Crimea, and hinted that he would keep his options open, implying a possible expansion to Ukraine's east if need arose. Putin also called the US action as experimenting with Ukraine from the other side of the pond, stressed that Kremlin had to weigh in to ensure the physical security of former Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych , and the armed men in Crimea were not Russian forces, rather "local defense forces". Meanwhile, the U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry was in hand at Kiev on March 4, 2014 with a pledge of $1 billion in loan guarantee and additional promise of technological help to modernize Ukraine's banking system.
US Displays Military Muscles by Flying War Planes over Baltic States
In response to belligerent and bellicose action of Russia in Crimea, US Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel on March 5, 2014 ordered six F-15 warplanes to fly over Baltic States--Lithuania, Estonia and Latvia--doubling a round-the-clock air patrol mission from current strength of four F-15s, part of a NATO defense effort by 14 nations who take in turns to protect airspace over these three former Soviet Republics. Meanwhile, on March 5, 2014, diplomacy was in full swing in Paris as US Secretary of State John Kerry tried in vain to have a face-to-face meeting between his Russian counterpart, Sergey Lavrov, and Ukraine's new, interim foreign minister, Andriy Deshchytsia, and NATO stepped up pressure on Russia as it considered the "entire range" of options in the words of its Secretary-General Anders Fogh Rasmussen. On March 5, 2014, the EU also froze the assets of 18 people who had misappropriated Ukrainian state funds.
Crimea Declares Secession, to Hold Referendum March 16, 2014
In a precipitating political descent to chaos, Crimean parliament on March 6, 2014 voted unanimously to secede the peninsula from Ukraine and join Russian federation. The vote was 87-0. The city of Sevastopol, which has a different charter, also declared secession and expressed intention to join the Russian federation. Both these measures--measure approved by the Crimean parliament and the measure approved by the city of Sevastopol-- will be placed in a referendum on March 16, 2014.
Russian Parliament Okays Crimea Annexation
Deepening the crisis in the former Soviet republic of Ukraine, both houses of Russian parliament on March 7, 2014 said that they would honor the March 16, 2014, Crimean referendum and annex the peninsula if the voters desired so in polls. In fact, Valentina Matviyenko, the chairwoman of the upper house, Federation Council, on March 7, 2014 likened the Crimean referendum to the upcoming Scottish secession referendum, and the speaker of the lower house, Sergei Naryshkin, echoed that sentiment too.
Famous Poet's Birth Anniversary Symbolizes Rallying Cry for Ukrainians
On the 200th birth anniversary of the famous Ukrainian poet Taras Shevchenko, the pro-west political establishment in Kiev on March 9, 2014 whipped up national passion among tens of thousands of people assembled at the statue of the poet in Kiev and other parts of the country. Both the interim premier and president, Arseniy Yatsenyuk and Oleksander Turchynov, respectively, paid rich tribute to the greatest poet of Ukraine and asked countrymen to be united against Russian "aggression".
Crimean Parliament Tries De-escalation of Crisis
On March 11, 2014, Crimean parliament tried to de-escalate the situation that arose from the planned referendum to be held on March 16, 2014 to secede from Ukraine and join the Russian federation by passing a measure that would first lead the region to become an independent state first if the referendum was passed and then to join the Russian federation later instead of both these events taking place at the same time. However, west didn't see much merit in this maneuver.
Crimea Votes for Independence, Russia Recognizes Crimean Independence, West Imposes Sanctions
In a referendum denounced by the USA and EU, Crimea on March 16, 2014 voted to secede from Ukraine and join the Russian federation. The margin was lopsided: 97%. On March 17, 2014, a day after Crimea voted for secession, U.S. and EU imposed sanctions and travel ban on 11 and 21 Russian and Ukrainian political and official figures, respectively. None imposed sanctions and travel ban on the Russian President Vladimir Putin. However, EU list of public figures under sanction didn't go as high as the US list in terms of political prominence and profile. The U.S. list included Valentina Matviyenko, the chairwoman of Russia's upper house of parliament, Federation Council; Vladislav Surkov; one of the most prominent Putin advisors in Kremlin; Sergei Glazyev, an economist who often advises Putin on Ukraine; Dmitry Rogozin, a Russian deputy premier; Leonid Slutsky and Yelena Mizulina, two influential members of Duma; Andrey Klishas, another influential member of Federation Council; Sergei Aksyonov, the new premier of Crimeria; Vladimir Konstantinov, the newly declared speaker of Crimean parliament; Viktor Yanukovych, the former Ukrainian president; and Viktor Medvedchuk, head of a pro-Russian civil society group, Ukrainian Choice. The European list likewise included political figures such as ,Sergei Aksyonov, Vladimir Konstantinov, Andrey Klishas and Leonid Slutsky, but excluded heavyweights such as Surkov and Matviyenko because of fear over poking Russia too hard as Europe has more stakes with Russia than the USA. Hours after the US and the EU imposed sanctions on Russia, Russian President Vladimir Putin pooh-poohed the move by signing a decree that recognizes Crimea as a "sovereign and independent" state. Meanwhile, the US President Barack Obama on March 17, 2014 asked VP Joe Biden to fly to the region to show support for the nervous Baltic states.
Russia Annexes Crimea
Sixty years after handing over it to the then-Soviet Republic of Socialist Ukraine and a day after recognizing it an independent state, Russian President Vladimir Putin on March 18, 2014 signed a decree to annex Crimea as part of Russia. Now, it's a mere formality to pass the measure through Russian parliament to make the annexation official. Meanwhile, on March 18, 2014, Group of Eight suspended Russia as the member of the elite world body. Putin addressing hundreds of Russian officials, governors, political elites and business barons on March 18, 2014 at the Grand Kremlin Palace plunged into depth of Russian history and Soviet might, rued the demise of Soviet and expressed remorse over the plight of millions of Russians who went to sleep in one country and woke up next morning in a different one because of Soviet disintegration.
Kiev to Withdraw Troops from Crimea and membership from Russian Commonwealth
Although defiant in public, the interim administration in Kiev resigned itself to the fate of Crimea as part of Russian federation. Andriy Parubiy, head of Ukraine's National Security Council, on March 19, 2014 issued an order to withdraw 25,000 Ukrainian troops from the Crimean Peninsula and relocate in other areas. Over the past weeks, Ukrainian soldiers and sailors were besieged in their ships, bases and headquarters by Russian troops as well as armed men from the so-called self-defense forces. Also, on March 19, 2014, in a feeble response to Russian annexation of Crimea, Kiev withdrew from 11-nation Commonwealth of the Independent States of the former Soviet republics. Meanwhile, the US Vice President Joe Biden, standing beside Lithuanian President Dalia Grybauskaite and Latvian President Andris Berzins, now in Lithuania, said on March 19, 2014 that US would respond to any Russian aggression appropriately.
Western Sanctions Tightens amid Russian Defiance
On March 20, 2014, US added 20 people to the existing list of people under asset freeze and travel ban, and also included Bank Rossiya, 17th largest Russian bank, under sanctions, accusing the institution of being a "crony bank that handles the funds" of Russian government officials. The European Union that began a crucial two-day meeting (March 20-21, 2014) also added on March 20 12 more people under asset freeze and travel ban, raising the total number of people under European sanctions to 33. Kremlin returned the favor of sanctions with its own list of nine US officials. The list announced by Kremlin on March 20 included Harry Reid, Senate Majority leader; Sen. John McCain; and Speaker John Boehner. During the day (March 20), Standard and Poor's issued a credit ratings warning to Russia in the wake of punitive western sanctions amid a measure to formally annex Crimea passing a key vote in Duma by 443 to 1 margin. The upper house of parliament, the Federation Council, will take up the measure on March 21, 2014 and President Vladimir Putin will sign it on March 21, 2014, making the annexation formal.
Rival Signing Ceremonies Formalizes Divergent Move of Ukraine
Two rival signing ceremonies--one at Moscow and the other in Brussels--on March 21, 2014 marked two conflicting political, economic and cultural pulls on the former Soviet republic of Ukraine. During the day, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a law, formalizing the annexation of Crimea. Also, on March 21, 2014, Ukraine's interim PM Arseniy Yatsenyuk signed with 28-nation European Union a deal that was offered earlier to Kiev, but former President Viktor Yanukovych had walked away from it in November 2013, leading to the crisis that had roiled Ukraine since then. The deal will bring Ukraine closer to EU in terms of economy, trade and culture. EU also said that it would sign similar deals with Georgia and Moldova. Also, during the day, a second rating agency, Fitch, issued a warning to Russia that it would downgrade country's bond rating, a day after a similar warning from Standard and Poor's . As a direct impact of the economic sanctions, VISA and Master Card on March 21, 2014 decided to stop doing business with Bank Rossiya that was put under US sanction a day earlier. However, what startled everyone was EU's unexpected move on March 21 to slap high tariff on Crimean goods if shipped to Europe via Russia instead of Ukraine. Meanwhile, Bloomberg reported on March 21, 2014 that Canadian airplane manufacturer Bombardier suspended plans to set up an assembly line in Russia and postponing delivery of dozens of turboprop planes worth of $3.4 billion. On the battleground in Crimea, 72 Ukrainian army and navy units switched loyalty to Russia as of March 21, according to Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, leaving only two units which had refused to switch allegiance.
Russia Takes Over two Remaining Crimean Bases from Ukrainian Forces
In a travesty of resistance, Russian tanks and troops entered two remaining hold-outs--an airbase in Belbek and a second airbase near the Crimean town of Novofedorivka--of Ukrainian bases on March 22, 2014 without firing a single shot, and captured them by the end of the day.
Russia Ousted from G-8
On the sidelines of a nuclear summit at The Hague, Netherlands, world's industrialized nations on March 24, 2014 agreed to punish Moscow over its annexation of Crimea by expelling it from the exclusive club of G-8, and canceled this year's summit to be hosted at Sochi, Russia. Instead G-7 will meet at Brussels in June 2014. West also kept a more stringent sanctions that would target Russia's energy, banking and finance, engineering and arms industry on the table to deter further Russian invasion in Ukraine's restive eastern region. Many observers think that Russia's exclusion from G-8 will hurt at least symbolically, if not seriously, the economic pride of the country and ego of its president, who throughout the last 16 years drummed up the benefit of Russia being a G-8 member since its inclusion in 1998.
Defense Minister Quits amid Outcry over Inaction to Crimean Annexation
Under strong criticism from lawmakers of all political stripe over the complete surrender to Russian aggression in Crimea without an iota of resistance, Ukraine's Defense Minister Ihor Tenyukh submitted his resignation on March 25, 2014.
Obama Rebuts Russia on Crimea Annexation
Paying a rich tribute to the soldiers from World War I laid at rest in a cemetery at Flanders Field American Cemetery and Memorial in northwest Belgium, U.S. President Barack Obama, standing beside the Belgium King Philippe and PM Elio Di Rupo, on March 26, 2014 quoted from the famous war poem "In Flanders Field" that to "all those who sleep here, we can say we caught the torch, we kept the faith". President Obama later on March 26 rebutted the reasons put forward by Russia point-by-point for annexing Crimea using "brute force".
IMF Offers Loans to Ukraine, UN General Assembly Condemns Russian Annexation of Crimea
In a trio of events, world community on March 27, 2014 extended its supportive hand to Ukraine and denounced Russian action to annex Crimea. The International Monetary Fund announced that it would provide an $18 billion aid package to Ukraine in coming days. The IMF aid is to be dependent on Kiev taking some painful economic actions including austerity measures, hiking the tax and raising the gas prices. Also during the day (March 27, 2014), the UN General Assembly overwhelmingly voted for a measure to condemn the March 16, 2014, Crimean referendum that led to the independence and eventual annexation by Russia. The vote was 100 in favor of the resolution, 11 opposed and 58 abstentions. Also, on March 16, US Congress imposed harsher sanctions on Russia. Meanwhile, former Ukrainian premier Yulia Tymoshenko announced on March 27 that she would contest for May 25, 2014, presidential polls, thus becoming an instant favorite. Among others who had already announced candidature for the presidential polls included a billionaire, Petro Poroshenko, and Vitali Klitschko, a former heavyweight champion.
Diplomatic Off-ramp to be Explored; a Key Opposition Candidate Withdraws from Ukrainian Polls
In trends to ease the tension over Russia's annexation of Crimean Peninsula, Russian President Vladimir Putin initiated a call on March 28, 2014 to US President Barack Obama, who was visiting Saudi Arabia, and during a long conversation it was decided that both countries' top diplomats--Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and US Secretary of State John Kerry--would meet at Paris on March 30, 2014 to explore ways to find a way out the geo-political quagmire. Also on March 29, 2014, a key opposition leader, Vitali Klitschko, a former world heavyweight champion, withdrew from the presidential race and backed the candidature of billionaire "chocolate king" Petro Poroshenko. Beside Proshenko, the other two major candidates are former premier Yulia Tymoshenko , and Mikhail Dobkin, whose name was announced by the party of former President on March 29.
Paris Talks between Kerry and Lavrov Yield no Solution
Top diplomats of USA and Russia met on March 30, 2014 at Paris to find out a way to diminish the degree of Cold War-type tension that arose since Ukraine's former, pro-Russia president was ousted that subsequently led to a cascading of events such as Russia's massing of troops on Ukraine's eastern borders, annexation of Crimea and threat to increase the prices of Russian gas to Ukraine. However, US Secretary of State John Kerry and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov didn't make any headway whatsoever. Although both favored continuation of talks at the lower levels, it's unlikely that there would be any tangible outcome. Among the issues pressed for by Russia as part of de-escalation maneuvers included proposals for turning Ukraine into a loose federation in which various regions would enjoy wider latitude of autonomy, assurance of safety and security of ethnic Russians in Ukraine and clamping down on the violence on Russian-speaking people. USA pressed for withdrawal of Russian troops along Ukraine's eastern borders.
Russian Premier Visits Crimea; Offers Help
Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev on March 31, 2014 visited Crimea and pledged to bolster peninsula's pension system, public finances, healthcare and education system.
NATO Hardens Stand against Russia; Ukraine Takes Steps to Disarm Ultranationalists
On April 1, 2014, NATO Foreign Ministers decided at a meeting at Brussels to suspend "all practical and military cooperation" with Russia because of Kremlin's move to annex Crimea. Meanwhile, Ukrainian parliament on April 1, 2014 unanimously approved to give powers to the Interior Ministry to disarm country's many nascent militia nationalist groups, including the so-called ultranationalist Right Sector, which played a key role in ousting country's former Moscow-leaning President Viktor Yanukovych. Meanwhile, on April 1, 2014, Russia's state-owned natural gas company Gazprom announced that it would take away the subsidies it had with the Yanukovych regime thus increasing the natural gas price from $268.50 per 1,000 cubic meters to $385.50, an increase of 40 percent. Russia has previous history of leveraging its gas shipment to its neighbors and rest of Europe to push for its political agenda. Russia turned off the gas valves to Europe in 2006 and 2009.
Pro-Russian Protesters Take Over Government Buildings in Eastern Ukraine
Hundreds of pro-Russian protesters seized government buildings on April 6, 2014 at Donetsk, 60 miles west of Russian borders, and demanded that elections be held to determine whether the people of province with the same name wanted to secede from Ukraine. In Luhansk, northeast of Donetsk, scores of protesters hurled eggs, stones and brickbats on the security agency buildings, and some protesters scaled the perimeter wall to hoist the Russian flag. Similar unrest was reported on April 6 from Kharkiv, less than an hour's drive from Russian borders. During the day (April 6), Ukrainian President Oleksander Turchynov put on hold his trip to Lithuania to monitor and oversee the fast evolving situation in eastern Ukraine.
Secession Sought in Eastern Ukraine; Kiev Fights Back
Taking cue from Crimea, pro-Moscow demonstrators expanded their siege of government buildings to other parts of Ukraine's industrial heartland on April 7, 2014, and unilaterally declared independence in key regions. Protesters declared Donetsk region as independent Donetsk People's Republic on April 7, 2014, and called for a secession referendum by no later than May 11, 2014. A similar secession announcement was made on April 7 for Kharkiv region by pro-Russian protesters and called the region as Sovereign Kharkiv People's Republic. The demonstrators also seized the main TV tower, and demanded that banned Russian channels be broadcast, according to Kharkiv Mayor Gennady Kernes. Donetsk and Kharkiv regions, as well as a third city, Luhansk, where the pro-Russian demonstrators laid siege on the administrative buildings, account for 10 million of Ukraine's 46 million people, and are strategically located close to Russian borders, where approximately 40,000 Russian troops, according to NATO, have been massed.
On April 8, 2014, the third day of the siege, Ukrainian troops fought a pitched battle to clear out protesters from the administrative buildings in Kharkiv, and detained several dozens protesters. However, pro-Moscow demonstrators consolidated their positions on April 8 in Donetsk, while at a third city, Luhansk, demonstrators took about 60 people hostage at the Security Service buildings. Meanwhile, political back-and-forth continued from the distance between west and Russian as US Secretary of State John Kerry, appearing before US Senate Foreign Relations Committee on April 8, accused Russia of fomenting trouble in eastern Ukraine, and even hinted that Russian special operations troops were among the pro-Moscow demonstrators who had laid siege on scores of government buildings in eastern Ukraine. NATO chief Anders Fogh Rasmussen on April 8, 2014 was emphatic as he appeared before the reporters in Paris that Russia would make a historic mistake if it invaded eastern Ukraine. On the other end of diplomatic spectrum, on April 8, 2014 Russian Foreign Ministry accused Ukraine's interim government and the west of sending militants, along with country's military personnel, from a Ukrainian ultranationalist group, Right Sector, and mercenaries from a private American security contractor, Greystone, to Ukraine's east to quash the rebellion.
Russia Tightens the Noose around Ukraine with Gas Politics
Doubling down on the harsh measures taken by the Russian gas monopoly Gazprom on April 1, 2014 to cut off the subsidies on the Russian natural gas to Ukraine, Russian lawmakers on April 9, 2014 voted to take away the discounts on Russian gas exports to Ukraine that was meant for favor in exchange for continued lease of Sevastopol Naval Base through 2042. The lease and the related agreement over the discount on Russian gas became redundant after annexation of Crimea by Russia. Together these two measures will increase the gas price for Ukraine from $268 per 1,000 cubic meters to $485 per 1,000 cubic meters, a steep boost in price that was called by Ukraine's Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk as "aggression against Ukraine".
Putin Threatens Europe to Cut Off Gas Shipment
Russian President Vladimir Putin wrote a letter, released on April 10, 2014, to the heads of 18 nations in European Union, most of them are Eastern European nations, threatening to cut off the gas shipment that flows through Ukraine over nonpayment of Kiev's $35 billion in due, a figure disputed by the interim administration of Ukraine.
Pro-Russian Demonstrators Seize more Government Buildings
Five days after seizing the headquarters of the regional government and declaring an independent Donetsk People's Republic, pro-Russian demonstrators took over the control of a police station in Donetsk on April 12, 2014, and expanded their siege to another key city, Slovyansk, 50 miles off Donetsk, where protesters occupied a state security office. Ukraine's acting President Oleksander Turchynov called an emergency National Security Council meeting late in April 12, 2014 to discuss the escalating situation in eastern Ukraine. Also, Obama White House on April 12 voiced deep concerns over the unfolding of events in eastern Ukraine and Russian role in these events. Ukraine's acting Interior Minister was more categorical about the role of Russia as Arsen Avakov on April 12, 2014 blamed Moscow for fomenting the trouble in the east and supplying arms to the secessionists.
Kiev Threatens to Use Force to Remove Blockade
On April 13, 2014, Ukraine's acting President Oleksander Turchynov issued an ultimatum for the occupying protesters in country's east to evacuate all government buildings by April 14 or face "large-scale anti-terrorist operation". Defying the ultimatum, protesters not only consolidated their hold on government buildings throughout the region, but also expanded their reach to few more new cities in the region such as Mariupol. Meanwhile, Moscow alleged that the interim government in Kiev was cracking down on the protest movement in the country's east at the behest of USA and Europe. Ukraine's deposed President Viktor Yanukovych, who fled to the Russian city of Rostov-on-Don, echoed the Russian sentiment on April 13.
Kiev's Ultimatum Falls Flat; Obama Mulls more Sanctions
Ukraine's Interim President Oleksander Turchynov's ultimatum for pro-Russian protesters a day before to evacuate all the government buildings in country's industrial and mining heartland in the east by April 14 fell in deaf ears as Kiev had limited options to nudge the protesters away from escalation. At the day's end, in the face of a concerted defiance from an entrenched secessionist movement, Kiev appealed to U.N to send peacekeeping troops to country's east as part of de-escalation move, knowing very well that archrival Russia had veto powers in UN Security Council. Also, US President Barack Obama called Russian President Vladimir Putin on April 14, accusing Russia of fomenting trouble in Ukraine's east, a charge Putin dismissed instantly. Obama administration began to explore ways to broaden the existing economic sanctions on Russia in concert with European partners as part of a move to send a clear signal to Moscow that any further intervention and invasion in Ukraine had clear consequences. However, on expanding the sanctions, there was no unified decision reached yet as one school of thought called for deferring any further sanctions to allow parties to hash out diplomatic roadblocks or hurdles at the proposed four-way talks in Geneva on April 17, 2014 among US, EU, Ukraine and Russia. Also, on April 14, Pentagon complained that a Russian attack aircraft made 12 sorties over a US destroyer in the Black Sea during the day. During the day (April 14), Obama administration confirmed Russian report that CIA Director John Brennan had visited Kiev during weekend, but refuted Russian allegation that Brennan had gone to Kiev secretly to advise the interim government on Ukrainian security operation in the country's east.
Ukrainian Force Shows Guts and Grits; Ukraine Feels Monetary Hardship
The Ukrainian force stormed and took control of a small airport, Kramatorsk Airport, just outside the city of Slovyansk, on April 15, 2014 in a much-delayed operation to confront pro-Russian demonstrators in the country's industrial heartland in the east. The operation marked the beginning of what Ukraine's acting President Oleksander Turchynov dubbed as "counterterrorism operation". Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev even went a step further describing the April 15, 2014, Ukrainian move to retake control of the Kramatorsk Airport as a crisis that pushed Ukraine to the "brink of civil war". Meanwhile, pro-Russian demonstrators continued to control government buildings across east, with the following major cities and their facilities under siege:
* Slovyansk--Police HQs, city administrations, checkpoints outside city
* Kramatorsk--City police HQs, city administration
* Luhansk--State security HQs
* Horlivka--City police HQs
* Yenakievo--City administration
* Donetsk--Regional police HQs
* Makiivka--City administration
* Khartsyzk--City administration
* Zuhres--City administration
* Mariupol--City administration
In a rebuttal to continuous Russian claim since the pro-Moscow President Viktor Yanukovych was ousted, the Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights issued a report on April 15, 2014, saying that the threat to ethnic Russians and Russian speaking people in Ukraine's east was exaggerated. The finding was based on two UN missions to eastern Ukraine between March 15, 2014 and April 2, 2014.
In a desperate move to prevent a run on its banks and reduce pressure on its currency, the hryvnia, Ukraine's central bank on April 15, 2014 raised a key interest rate from 6.5 percent to 9.5 percent.
Pro-Moscow Demonstrators Seize Armored Vehicles
In a show of defiance by pro-Russian protesters and sign of disarray on the part of Ukrainian armed forces, youths on April 16, 2014 seized armored personnel carriers from Ukrainian troops without any semblance of resistance, and took control of two more cities in eastern Ukraine. Meanwhile, in a clear message to Moscow, NATO Secretary-General Anders Fogh Rasmussen on April 16 said that there would be more sorties over Baltic region.
Geneva Agreement Reached Among Four Parties to Deescalate Ukrainian Crisis
A limited accord was reached on April 17, 2014 after seven hours of intense negotiations among top diplomats from USA, Russia, Ukraine and EU. The agreement signed in Geneva called for deescalating the situation in eastern Ukraine through a series of measures such as
* Evacuating the several dozen government buildings pro-Moscow demonstrators had seized in the east
* Disarming all illegally armed groups
* Reforming the Ukrainian constitution to give more powers to the regions
* Providing amnesty to protesters who had not committed any capital crime
However, the Geneva Accord signed on April 17, 2014 didn't ask for Russian troops withdrawal from the borders and stipulated deployment of Organization of Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) monitors in the field to oversee the implementation of the agreement. Meanwhile, pro-Russian demonstrators tried to overtake the Ukrainian National Guard base of Mariupol on the Black Sea overnight (April 17), triggering a firefight between the Ukrainian soldiers and protesters that killed three protesters. US Secretary of State John Kerry described the Geneva Accord a "good day's work", and conditioned its success on Russia's willingness to adhere the letter and spirit of the accord. Echoing the sentiment, US President Barack Obama said few hours later in Washington that he remained skeptical on the degree of Russia's commitment to the Geneva Accord. However, back in Geneva, Kerry's Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov called the accord a good compromise, but he put the onus of its success on the Ukrainian government. However, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Deshchytsia put the implementation of Geneva Accord in a different narrative that it would be a "test of Russia" in its willingness to deescalate the situation in the east.
Russian President Hosts Q&A Session, Reserves the Right to Defend Russian Speaking People
In his annual Q-and-A session televised live on April 17, 2014, Russian President Vladimir Putin defended his right to take measures to protect ethnic Russians and Russian speaking populace in Ukraine's east although he had hoped that such steps would not be necessary. Putin said that he had already received that authority from the upper house of country's parliament, Federation Council. His Q-and-A session also struck the nerve of many critics of Russian president both in Russia and outside for his repeated assertion of Novorossiya, or, New Russia, that refers to Russian Empire in the late 1700s that had stretched to what is now East Ukraine. Putin said during the Q-and-A session that he was not sure why the region was returned to Ukraine in 1920.
Protesters Refuse to Comply with Geneva Accord, Refuse to Leave the Buildings
Rejecting the Geneva Accord signed a day earlier by Russia, Ukraine, USA and EU, the protesters on April 18, 2014 refused to leave the administrative buildings in several East Ukrainian cities and disarm, reasoning that they were not party to the agreement and no one had represented them. The secessionist flag of People's Republic of Donetsk continued flying at full-staff on April 18. Many in the east resent the way Ukrainian government in the aftermath of former President Viktor Yanukovych's ouster in February 2014 has flirted with, but eventually vetoed, a legislation that has been meant to deny the regional governments of authority to recognize Russian as official language. Meanwhile, in a conciliatory gesture, Ukraine's acting President Oleksander Turchinov and interim PM Arseny Yatseniuk, appearing jointly in a nationalized TV address on April 18, 2014, called for national unity and urged people to refrain from violence during Easter weekend. The open defiance and denunciation of Geneva Accord by rebels drew the attention of US Secretary of State John Kerry, leading him to call his Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov on April 18, 2014 and demand "full and immediate compliance" with the agreement.
Shootout Breaks out at a Checkpoint, Kills Three Militants
In a disturbing turn of the event, a car approached to a checkpoint set up by local protesters near Slovyansk in eastern Ukraine in the wee hours of April 20, 2014, and opened fire on the people manning the checkpoint, killing three pro-Moscow protesters. The killing at the Bylbasivka Checkpoint marked growing radicalization on the both sides of the protest movement.
Biden Arrives in Kiev, US Ambassador Warns Russia
As the US Vice President Joe Biden arrived at Kiev on late April 21, 2014, US Ambassador to Ukraine, Gregory Pyatt, issued warning to Russia that degree of its compliance with the Geneva Accord signed on April 17, 2014 would be judged in "days", not in "weeks".
Biden Shows Overt Support for Regime in Kiev
As an overt and open symbol of backing the regime in Kiev to stand up to Moscow, US Vice President Joe Biden on April 22, 2014 appeared beside the country's interim president and premier, Oleksander Turchynov and Arseny Yatseniuk, respectively, and pledged to provide US help to the beleaguered government.
Government Crackdown Begins in Eastern Ukraine
Kiev began a determined campaign on April 24, 2014 to oust protesters who were continuing to seize government buildings across cities in eastern Ukraine. The crackdown killed at least 2 protesters and drew a harsh response from Russian President Vladimir Putin, who decried Ukrainian government's "punitive operation". The operation began a day after Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov warned on April 23, 2014 that any operation against Russian interest in Eastern Ukraine would bring a strong response. On April 24, 2014, Ukraine's acting President Oleksander Turchynov addressed the nation, accusing Russia of "coordinating and openly supporting terrorist killers" in eastern Ukraine. The Ukrainian crackdown that began on April 24, 2014 was, to a large extent, was influenced by the April 17, 2014, kidnapping of a city councilman, Volodymyr Rybak, of Horlivka, and the subsequent discovery of his bruised body in a river on April 21, 2014. Ukraine's Acting Interior Minister Arsen Avakov said on April 24 that the Ukrainian forces ousted protesters from the City Hall in Mariupol.
Eight OSCE Monitors Detained
On April 25, 2014, eight monitors from Organization of Security and Cooperation in Europe--four Germans, a Czech, a Dane and a Pole--were detained by pro-Moscow protesters at Slovyansk on charges of espionage.
Mayor of a Key Eastern City Shot
The mayor of Ukraine's second-largest city, Kharkov, was shot and wounded on April 28, 2014. Hennady Kernes was struggling for his life at the hospital. Also, there were clashes between pro-Moscow militants and pro-Ukrainian demonstrators on April 28 in the city of Donetsk. Meanwhile, US ratcheted up sanctions against Russia on April 28, 2012 by targeting seven individuals and 17 entities close to Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Militants Seize Administrative Building at One More City
Pro-Russian demonstrators on April 29, 2014 seized one administration buildings at Luhansk, a city of 450,000 people just 15 miles west of Russian borders. The demonstrators later allowed local police officials to file out of the buildings. On April 30, 2014, Ukraine's acting president admitted that his security forces were unable to dislodge and disarm the pro-Russian militants who continued to occupy administrative buildings, police stations and other government facilities at more than a dozen cities in Eastern Ukraine. According to Oleksander Turchynov, regime's game plan would be to prevent spread of pro-Moscow militancy to take roots in Kharkov and Odessa region, while leaving Donetsk and Luhansk at its present state.
Putin Wants Troops out of Eastern Ukraine
In a telephonic conversation with German Chancellor Angela Merkel on May 1, 2014, a day prior to Merkel's visit to Washington and meeting with the U.S. President Barack Obama, Russian President Vladimir Putin insisted that all troops from Eastern Ukraine should be out. He also said to Merkel that he would work toward securing the release of eight western monitors from OSCE.
Ukrainian Assault on Slovyansk Begin; 43 Killed in Violence in Odessa; Obama and Merkel Talk Tough
After several tries that fizzled out soon, Ukrainian military on May 2, 2014 launched a decisive assault on militant positions in the eastern city of Slovyansk. Intense firefighting broke out in the city, but protesters continued to hold on to the many of the government buildings. At least 9 people were killed in the firefight. Ukraine's acting President Oleksander Turchynov said that the operation that began on May 2 in Slovyansk was in order to protect the civilians from "mercenaries of foreign states, terrorists and criminals who are taking hostages, killing and torturing people, and threatening the territorial integrity and stability of Ukraine". Two Ukrainian MI-24 Helicopters were shot down in Slovyansk, killing two crew members and wounding seven soldiers beside one helicopter pilot being captured. However, day's worst violence came in the southern city of Odessa as pro-Ukrainian demonstrators clashed with pro-Russian demonstrators, killing 3 people. As fighting intensified, a large pro-Russian group retreated and took refuge in a big trade union building in Odessa. Apparently pro-Kiev militants zeroed on the trade union building and hurled Molotov cocktails, setting the trade union building on fire and killing at least 43 people. In Washington, on May 2, 2014, U.S. President Barack Obama and visiting German Chancellor Angela Merkel reiterated the EU-US determination of imposing sanctions on Russia's energy sector, banking system and mining industries if Moscow would disturb presidential elections to be held on May 25, 2014. President Obama also lent strong support to Kiev behind its assault on Slovyansk.
Remaining Seven OSCE Monitors Released; Violence Continued in Slovyansk
Although an OSCE monitor was freed earlier, seven were under custody of pro-Russian demonstrators until May 3, 2014 when all seven--four Germans, a Dane, a Czech and a Pole--were released along with five Ukrainian military escorts as a Kremlin envoy, Vladimir Lukin, had arrived at Slovyansk and negotiated the release. Meanwhile, Ukrainian forces pushed their way through to try to go to the city center in Slovyansk on May 3, 2014, leading a continuous fire-fight that had killed at least 10 people.
Irate Pro-Russian Mob Frees Protesters from Jails in Odessa
Angry over more than 40 deaths in a gruesome setting of fire at a large trade union building in Odessa two days ago, a pro-Russian mob on May 3, 2014 attacked the police headquarters in the Black Sea port and freed dozens of their jailed allies. Ukraine's PM Arseny Yatseniuk on May 3, 2014 visited Odessa to defuse tension and said that he could see Russian hand behind the recent unrest in the country's east. Many in Ukraine see Putin's recent aggressive political posture and Russian military's flexing muscles in the light of a grand design to expand Russian control from Moldova's separatist region of Trans-Dniester, where Russia keeps a military peacekeeping contingent, to the current western boundary of Russia through Odessa.
Putin Calls for Delay in Secession Referendum
Swiss President Didier Burkhalter, who holds the chairmanship of Organization of Security and Cooperation in Europe, met with Russian President Vladimir Putin at Moscow on May 7, 2014 and persuaded Putin to issue a call for pro-Moscow militants to hold off a May 11, 2014, referendum on the fate of Eastern Ukraine. Putin also urged Kiev to call of its military operation in the east and southeast of the country that had killed so far at least 34 people. A separate spate of violence also killed 46 people in the Black Sea city of Odessa.
Pro-Moscow Rebels Refuse to Heed Putin's Call for Referendum Delay
Co-Chairman of the so-called Donetsk's People Republic, Miroslav Rudenko, on May 8, 2014 announced that the secession referendum would proceed on May 11, 2014 as planned, a day after Russian President Vladimir Putin called for its delay. The rebels in Slovyansk and Luhannsk echoed Rudenko, saying that plebiscite was on track.
Putin Visits Crimea to Mark the Victory Day; Blood Spills in Mariupol
In the first visit since the Ukrainian Peninsula declared independence and subsequent annexation by Russia, Russian President Vladimir Putin on May 9, 2014 visited Crimean naval port of Sevastopol and whipped up the fervor of Russian nationalism by marking the 69th anniversary of Russia's win over the Nazi Germany. Putin oversaw Russian military might over the Bay of Sevastopol, with Russian warships conducting their drills in water while dozens of Russian fighter jets streaking across the sky over the bay. The celebration of the Victory Day, although marked in the past quietly, this year had all the Kremlin-backed pomp and prestige throughout the region. Prior to arriving at Crimea, President Vladimir Putin marked the 1945 surrender of Nazi Germany at the Red Square to the shouts and salute of 11,000 soldiers and more than 150 armored vehicles. Meanwhile, NATO on May 9, 2014 registered a strong protest against Putin's unilateral visit to Crimea as its Secretary-General Anders Fogh Rasmussen calling the Crimean annexation as "illegal, illegitimate".
Meanwhile, the Victory Day turned bloody on May 9, 2014 in the port city of Mariupol as soldiers used armored personnel carriers to break the siege of pro-Russian protesters on the city's police headquarters, killing at least 7 protesters.
Eastern Ukraine Holds Autonomy Referendum
Two provinces of Eastern Ukraine on May 11, 2014 held the secession referendum in which 89 percent of voters in Donetsk Province and 97.5 percent of voters in the neighboring Luhansk voted in favor of the measure. The voter turnout ranged from heavy at some areas to mixed in other areas. Kiev, the US and the EU called the referendum as farce, while Russia embraced it short of a legal mandate and stressed it a pressuring tool to persuade Kiev to start negotiation with Eastern Ukrainian protesters. On May 12, 2014, Denis Pushilin, leader of the Donetsk People's Republic, called the referendum as a YES vote from province's voters to merge with Russia.
Ukrainian Troops Ambushed; Russian and German Top Diplomats Lock Horns
On May 13, 2014, the stand-off at Ukraine's east took a dangerous turn after about 30 armed men ambushed Ukrainian security forces outside the town of Kramatorsk, killing six soldiers and wounding eight. Meanwhile, diplomatic back-and-forth went into full swing on May 13 as Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said that no international effort would solve the problems in Ukraine unless two main players--government in Kiev and demonstrators in Eastern Ukraine--sat down to seek solutions. However, a different soundbite was heard during the day from German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeir, who stopped briefly at Kiev's Boryspil Airport, warning Russia or separatists of any disruptions of the upcoming Ukrainian presidential polls.
OSCE-Sponsored Dialogue Held
A "road map" put forth by the Swiss President Didier Burkhalter, who holds the chairmanship of Organization of Security and Cooperation in Europe, that calls for national dialogue between warring factions was the basis for a diplomatic effort that was held at Kiev on May 14, 2014. However, the effectiveness of the talks is in doubt as the pro-Moscow separatists have not even been invited to the negotiation table. The talks lasted on May 14, 2014 for two-and-half hours. Opening the dialogue, interim President Oleksander Turchynov called for a "dialogue", but not with the "terrorists", referring to the pro-Moscow demonstrators who had occupied scores of administrative buildings in Eastern Ukraine. Rinat Akhmetov, richest industrialist of Ukraine and an influential figure in the Donetsk region, favored a united Ukraine, while Oleksandr Yefremov, a member of parliament and former governor of Luhansk region called for withdrawal of troops from the east. As talks were unfolding in Kiev, European Council President Herman Van Rompuy said that two former Soviet Republics, Georgia and Moldova, would sign a treaty with EU on June 27, 2014 to strengthen the political and trade ties with the bloc, an agreement former Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych refused to sign in late November 2013, precipitating a crisis that resulted in his ouster, Crimean annexation by Russia and the present unrest in Eastern Ukraine.
Second-Round of Dialogue Held
A second round of national dialogue was held at the eastern city of Kharkiv on May 17, 2014. The opening round was held at Kiev on May 14, 2014. The second round on May 17, 2014 focused on candid exchange of ideas and grievances, and came up with a 12-point "memorandum of understanding" that would be pushed through the parliament to, among others,
* Give more autonomy to the regions
* Secure the status Russian as one of the official languages
* Condemn unlawful use of weapons
* Grant limited amnesty to protesters
If such a bill passes through parliament, that will lead to withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from country's east, according to Mikhail Dobkin, a former governor of Kharkiv and ally of deposed President Victor Yanukovych.
Crimea's Strategic Importance To Russia
According to William J. Broad of The New York Times published by The Dallas Morning News on May 18, 2014, the strategic importance of Crimea to Russia is not as much as the land mass of Crimea as the undersea resources of the Black Sea and Azov Sea that also come under Moscow's jurisdiction after March 2013 annexation of the peninsula. Moscow's pretext of annexation was that Crimea was part of Russia before the former Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev handed over the peninsula to his native republic in 1954. What Moscow didn't tell and much of the international community didn't pay attention to was that Russia was also taking control by default over up to 230 miles of seas off the shores of Crimea as part of a little known treaty, formally known as the 1982 Law of the Sea Treaty. The treaty lets coastal states claim what are known as exclusive economic and physical control over the seas rights that extends to as much as 230 miles off the coastal shoreline. The unilateral annexation, not recognized by international community, gives Russia the control over 36,000 square miles of seas presumed to have in possession of trillions of dollars worth of undersea resources such as oil and natural gas. This bolsters already a strong presence of Russia in deep sea exploration, and expands the reach of Moscow to go after potential new sources of fossil fuels in the depth of seas. In April 2012, the then-Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin signed an agreement with Italian energy giant Eni to explore in the Russia's economic zone in the northeastern Black Sea, a region of 26,000 square miles, size of the state of Louisiana, for new energy sources. However, the potential for new energy sources in Russia's economic zone in Black Sea was less than what was under the Black Sea off the coast of Crimea, then part of Ukraine, according to a presentation made by scientists at an European Petroleum conference in May 2012. According to the presentation, titled "Is Black Sea the Next North Sea?", the Russian economic zone was less attractive compared to "tremendous exploration potential" in the economic zone controlled by Ukraine. In August 2012, Irving-based Exxon outbid Russian oil firm Lukoil to sign an agreement with Kiev to explore oil and natural gas in the Ukrainian waters of the Black Sea. It's not clear yet what would be the fate of this agreement after the March 2014 annexation of Crimea. However, when Russia issued the treaty of annexation in March 2014 between Republic of Crimea and the Russian Federation, Moscow was clear that it would comply with Article 4, Section 3 of the international law that would guide drawing the new boundaries in the Black and Azov Seas.
Kiev Passes Two Autonomy Measures for Eastern Ukraine
Lawmakers in Kiev on May 20, 2014 approved two measures to address the grievances of people in Eastern Ukraine as Russia continued withdrawal of its forces from the Ukrainian borders after President Vladimir Putin issued order to this effect on May 19, 2014. The measures include recognizing Russian as the second official language and decentralizing powers to the regions. However, the time or method of implementation was not spelled out clearly.
Ambush Leaves more than a Dozen Ukrainian Soldiers Dead
Gunmen on May 22, 2014 ambushed a checkpoint manned by Ukrainian security personnel near the city of Donetsk and killed 16 Ukrainian soldiers. The ambush marked a new escalation in already tense situation in the run-up to the weekend's presidential elections. Meanwhile, interim premier Arseniy Yatsenyuk on May 22, 2014 called upon the UN Security Council to convene an emergency session so that Kiev might present evidence that Russia was planning to obstruct May 25, 2014, presidential elections.
Putin to Respect Ukrainian Election Outcome, Embraces Exxon with a Pact to Rebuff Washington
Addressing the International Economic Forum at St. Petersburg on May 23, 2014, Russian President Vladimir Putin assured that he would respect the outcome of the May 25, 2014, Ukrainian presidential polls. The highlight of the conference at St. Petersburg was Putin's emphasis on publicly flaunting a landmark agreement between US oil giant Exxon and Russian oil giant OAO Rosneft CEO Igor Sechin to extend an exploration and production deal in the Arctic and Siberia and liquefying natural gas for export in Russia's Far East. Exxon refused to oblige a U.S. State Department request to skip the conference at St. Petersburg. With 75 billion barrels of reserves at stake, western explorers and oil companies are reluctant to shun Russian theater altogether in the aftermath of sanctions on Russian targets by western nations to punish Moscow's intervention in neighboring Ukraine.
Candy Tycoon Wins Presidential Race Hands Down
Petro Poroshenko, who made a fortune by building a candy empire, clearly pushed back a feeble challenge by former premier Yulia Tymosheno in a 21-candidate crowded field in May 25, 2014, presidential polls. All exit polls indicated a clear mandate for Poroshenko, obviating a runoff between him and Tymoshenko. The vote was marred by threat and intimidation by pro-Moscow militants in Eastern Ukraine, where turnout was low because as few as 20 percent of the polling stations were open during the election day. Nationally the turnout was 60 percent, and there were long queues of voters patiently waiting at numerous polling stations at Kiev and other cities across country's western region. There were 35.5 million eligible voters. As the night fell and trends emerged for Poroshenko's win, he extended olive branch towards the people in Donbass (Eastern Ukraine) as part of his desire to "put an end to war, chaos, crime and bring peace to the Ukrainian land".
Rebels Seize Airport in Eastern Ukraine; Army Evicts them in a Bloody Sweep
As soon as elections were over on May 25, 2014, rebels tied to People's Republic of Dotensk seized the city's international airport, Sergei Prokofiev International Airport, at 3AM on May 26, 2014. Ukrainian security forces rushed in and pummeled the rebel positions with airstrikes, and after two days of intense fighting, Ukrainian security forces were able to take control over the airport on May 27, 2014. Meanwhile, U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine Geoffrey Pyatt said on May 27, 2014 that truckloads of Russians had crossed borders to enter into Ukraine. The rebel casualty in two-day (May 26-27, 2014) airport standoff were high.
Rebels Down a Ukrainian Helicopter
In a sign of a more entrenched and enduring guerrilla warfare, rebels in Eastern Ukraine downed a Mi-8 military helicopter on the outskirts of Slovyansk on May 29, 2014, killing at least 12 soldiers, including Gen. Serhiy Kulchytskiy, who was a commander in charge of combat training. The downing of the helicopter came amid western and Kiev's allegation that truckloads of gunmen were sneaking into Ukraine through country's porous borders with Russia. Also, on May 29, 2014, Ukrainian authority announced that the President-elect Petro Poroshenko would be sworn in on June 7, 2014. Meanwhile, in an embarrassment to Russia, rebel leaders in Eastern Ukraine said on May 29, 2014 that among the dead during two-day (May 26-27, 2014) standoff at the country's second-largest airport, Sergei Prokofiev International Airport, were 33 Russian citizens, implying that Russians had joined the rebel movement in Eastern Ukraine and been fighting alongside the rebels against the Ukrainian army.
NATO Confirms Russian Withdrawal of Troops from Borders
On May 30, 2014, NATO Secretary-General Anders Fogh Rasmussen confirmed Russia's claim that it was withdrawing troops massed along Ukrainian borders. The NATO chief said that already two-third of Russian troops had been withdrawn from the borders.
What Does Eastern Ukraine Offer to Putin?
From pure political power play, Eastern Ukraine's value to Moscow is no more than a landmass with plenty of socio-economic problems. However, from a long-term geopolitical perspective, Eastern Ukraine offers a strategic advantage to Kremlin to assert its regional authority to a vast amount of land and sea areas which are the source of raw materials, hardware and industrial equipment for Russian Defense forces as well as some potential energy riches buried deep inside Black Sea and the Sea of Azov. Two regions already dominated by pro-Moscow rebels, Luhansk and Donetsk, offer land communication between Russia and Crimean Peninsula. A third region, Zaporizhia, is home to the Motor Sich enterprise that produces jet engines for Russian transport and combat aircraft. All three regions provide land bridge between Russia and Crimea. Kherson Region is the fourth Eastern Ukrainian region that provides land bridge between Russia and Crimea in addition to supplying electricity to the peninsula. Zaporizhia and Kherson Regions also provide Moscow with easy access to oil and gas fields in the Sea of Azov. The strategic importance of two other Eastern Ukrainian regions, namely Odessa and Mykolaiv, to Kremlin is rather far-fetched and unclear at this moment. However, from a long-term geopolitical perspective, both regions provides a continuum and contiguity of Russian speaking people from the Russian borders to the separatist region of Transnistria of Moldova alongside the vast coastline of energy-rich Black Sea.
Rebels Attack a Ukrainian Base, Russia Calls an Emergency Session of UNSC
On June 2, 2014, pro-Moscow rebels attacked a Ukrainian border security base close to Luhansk, leading to firefight between the security forces and rebels that had killed at least five rebels. During the day (June 2), there was an explosion at an administrative building in Luhansk occupied by rebels that had killed more people. Russian Foreign Ministry on June 2, 2014 blamed the explosion at the administrative building on a Ukrainian strike. Meanwhile, Moscow took the advantage of rotating presidency of UNSC for the month of June by calling an emergency session on June 2, 2014 to introduce a resolution calling for immediate halt to violence and talks to establish cease-fire.
Obama meets President Designate in Warsaw amid Rebel Gain in Eastern Ukraine
June 4, 2014 marked a mixed day for Ukraine as the winner of last month's presidential elections, Petro Poroshenko, met with the visiting US President Barack Obama at Warsaw for 70 minutes during which Obama pledged to provide a $5 million package to country's poorly prepared military, involving night vision goggles, body armors and other non-lethal aid. Meanwhile, back on the ground, pro-Moscow rebels on June 4, 2014 seized three bases near Russian borders from a ragtag Ukrainian military.
Obama Gives a Month's Time to Putin to Ease Tension in Ukraine
In a joint press conference with British Prime Minister David Cameron at Brussels on June 5, 2014, the U.S. President Barack Obama took a firm stand on Russia's handling of Ukrainian situation, and gave a four-week timeline to take confidence building measures such as recognizing the results of just concluded Ukrainian presidential polls, beginning negotiation with newly elected President Petro Poroshenko, persuading the pro-Moscow rebels to vacate scores of administrative buildings now under their occupation and join the ongoing peace talks with Kiev and stopping the flow of arms to Ukraine. Obama was in Brussels to attend a G-7 summit (June 4-5, 2014).
New President Sworn In
Candy tycoon Petro Poroshenko was sworn in as Ukraine's President on June 7, 2014. In a speech laced with symbolism and substance, Poroshenko appealed to the rebels in the east to lay down arms and join the mainstream politics. He also extended the olive branch to Moscow while reiterating Kiev's commitment to closer relations with Europe.
Ukrainian Copter Shot Down
In a serious escalation of the conflict in the country's east, a military transport helicopter was downed by a missile on June 14, 2014 near Luhansk airport, killing all 49 aboard.
Ukraine's President Declares a Unilateral Cease-Fire; Rebels Rejects it Immediately
Ukraine's President Petro Poroshenko on June 18, 2014 announced a unilateral cease-fire as part of a 14-point peace plan to bring the fighting in the country's east to a halt. However, pro-Moscow rebels fighting against Kiev immediately dismissed the cease-fire. However, two sides brought about a temporary truce at Karlivka on June 18 to allow handing over of bodies of 49 people who were killed after a military transport helicopter was downed on June 14, 2014 at Luhansk. The 14-point peace plan espoused by President Poroshenko includes sealing off the borders with Russia and amending Ukrainian constitution to provide more decentralization to regions.
Unilateral Cease-Fire Begins, Putin Lends Support to the Unilateral Cease-fire
The unilateral cease-fire announced by Ukraine's President Petro Poroshenko began on June 20, 2014 amid allegation that Russia had deployed some of its troops along the border. Meanwhile, Russian President Vladimir Putin on June 21, 2014 supported the unilateral ceasefire. However, Putin was also emphatic that Porosheko should open peace negotiation with the protesters for an end to the crisis. The unilateral cease-fire will last for a week.
Rebels Announce their Own Unilateral Cease-Fire amid Downing of a Copter
Self-declared premier of the so-called Donetsk People's Republic, Alexander Borodai, on June 23, 2014 announced rebels' own unilateral cease-fire that would continue until June 27, 2014, covering the seven-day period of Kiev's own unilateral cease-fire. However, cease-fire faltered a day later on June 24, 2014 as a shoulder-fired missile downed a Ukrainian helicopter near Slovyansk, killing all nine service members.
Russia Revokes Invasion Authority
At the urging of Russian President Vladimir Putin a day earlier, Russia's upper house of parliament on June 25, 2014 approved a measure revoking the authority for invasion it had granted to president in the aftermath of Crimean annexation. The move, largely seen as Putin's conciliatory gesture to ease relations with Ukraine's new President Petro Proshenko, was hailed by U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry.
Poroshenko Signs Trade Treaty with EU
A landmark trade treaty whose refusal by former President led to his ouster and precipitate the present political crisis in Ukraine was eventually signed by the country's new President Petro Poroshenko at Brussels on June 27, 2014. Poroshenko also held out the hope that Ukraine would eventually join EU. Two other former Soviet Republics, Moldova and Georgia, also signed the same treaty on June 27 with EU. Poroshenko, in a gesture to pro-Moscow rebels, extended the cease-fire set to expire on June 27 by an additional three days to June 30, 2014. Meanwhile the European Council put four conditions which it expected Russia's help by June 30 to avoid further sanctions. The conditions, supported by USA, included:
(1) An agreement for cease-fire verification mechanism
(2) Release of all hostages
(3) Return of three border checkpoints to Ukrainian authorities
(4) Launch of negotiations on Poroshenko's peace plan
On June 27, 2014, four OSCE hostages in Donetsk were released, but an additional four hostages being held for the past month were still under captivity at Luhansk region.
Poroshenko Calls Off Cease-fire, Orders Assaults on Rebel Positions
After two rounds of conference calls among the so-called Ukraine Quartet--comprising German Chancellor Angela Merkel, French President Francois Hollande, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko--failed to arrive at a reasonable solution over the past two days, Ukraine's President Petro Poroshenko called off the 10-day cease-fire (June 20-30, 2014) on June 30, and pledged to crush the rebellion in the east. Ukrainian security forces began assaults on pro-Moscow rebel positions across country's east right in earnest on July 1, 2014, retaking one of three major border crossing points with Russia, the checkpoint at Dolzhansky.
Ukraine Continues Military Campaign in the East Amidst Hope for Renewed Cease-fire
Ukraine on July 2, 2014 continued its broad-based military campaign in the Donbas region as a four-way foreign ministerial level talks opened in Berlin among France, Germany, Russia and Ukraine as part of an effort to resume negotiation to agree on a cease-fire to be monitored by the OSCE.
Finger-Wagging Poroshenko Reshuffles Defense
A finger-wagging, high-pitched Petro Poroshenko took his aim in the parliament on July 3, 2014 against an endemic corruption for the failure of the country's military to root out militancy in country's east. He replaced active Defense Minister Mikhailo Koval by a top former police official, Valery Heletey. He also tapped Lt. Gen. Viktor Muzhenko as chief of the military's general staff, and Yury Kosyuk, an agriculture magnate and country's one of the richest, to oversee defense issues as part of the administration and root out corruption.
Nine Ukrainian Troops Killed amid Kiev's Allegation against Russia for Massing Troops
As Ukraine's National Security Council chief Andriy Parubiy alleged on July 4, 2014 that Russia was massing troops along its 1,250-mile borders with his country, nine Ukrainian troops were killed during the day in fierce fighting.
Government Troops Oust Rebels from a Key City; Rebels Regroup at Regional Hub
In a concerted push, Ukrainian troops got Slovyansk, a city of 100,000 people, rid of pro-Moscow rebels on July 5, 2014. A day later, on July 6, 2014, pro-Moscow rebels regrouped at Donetsk with a peppy and pompous rally cheering them at the city's main square. Pavel Gubarev, self-styled Governor of Donetsk People's Republic, inspired the rebels and rally-goers alike that they would soon "drown these wretches in blood".
Three Key Bridges in Eastern Ukraine Blown Up
After ousting rebels from Slovyansk, Ukrainian government's next targets would be Donetsk and Luhansk. As the sayings go, so has gone the action with three key bridges in the region has been blown up on July 7, 2014, and the blame has immediately fallen on the rebels to cut off the access to a likely advance of Ukrainian troops. Meanwhile, Russia urged Europe on July 7, 2014 to put pressure on Kiev to stop attacks in Eastern Ukraine.
Kiev Goes Aggressive
In a belligerent move, Ukrainian authorities put new conditions for talks on July 8, 2014 as Defense Minister Valery Heletey saying that no negotiation would even start without laying down of arms by rebels.
Ukrainian Forces Suffer Heavily at the Hand of Rebels
Days after ousting pro-Moscow rebels from Slovyansk and Kramatorsk, Ukrainian forces lost at least 32 of its soldiers on July 11, 2104. A Russian-made Grad rocket came down on a military base at Zelenopilliya on the Russian border in Luhansk, killing at least 28 soldiers. Separately gunmen killed four Ukrainian services personnel manning a Luhansk city checkpoint.
Ukrainian Military Pound Luhansk
After seizing Slovyansk and Kramatorsk, Ukraine's military eyed on the border city of Luhansk, and began pounding the rebel positions on the outskirts of the city on July 13, 2014. During the day, on the sideline of the World Cup Soccer venue in Brazil, Russian President Vladimir Putin met with German Chancellor Angela Merkel to discuss on a cease-fire and negotiation to arrive at political solution.
Russia, Ukraine Accuse Each Other of Attacks
In a sign of more direct involvement by countries in cross-border attacks, Ukraine on July 15, 2014 accused Russia of carrying out an air assault on a Ukrainian border town, Snizhne, that had killed at least four civilians. Pro-Russian rebels put the blame at Ukraine's doorstep for July 15, 2014, air attack on Snizhne, 12 miles from the border. The accusation came a day after authorities in Kiev blamed Russia for downing of a transport plane in Luhansk although the plane crew made safe landing. A day prior to that, Russian Foreign Ministry warned of potentially "irreversible consequences" after one man had died in a mortar attack on the Russian side of town of Donetsk.
Obama Tightens Russian Sanctions by Sector-focused Targeting
Obama administration on July 16, 2014 expanded the sanctions against Russia significantly by targeting large banks, defense and energy firms. The targets included Rosneft, state-owned oil company and largest oil producer; Gazprombank, financial arm of natural gas behemoth Gazprom; Novatek, another natural gas company; and VEB, the state economic development bank. Although the U.S. move on July 16, 2014 was coordinated with European Union, Europe refused to join hands to tighten the economic sanctions so severely, instead settling for a plan to block financing of new Russian projects by European development and investment funds.
Plane Shot Down Over Ukraine
An eerily similar tragedy, with the same airline, with the same kind of plane, Boeing 777-200ER, struck Malaysia in a space of four months. This time MH 17 flight en route from Amsterdam to Kuala Lumpur was hit by a surface-to-air missile at a height of 33,000 feet over Eastern Ukraine, close to Russian borders. The plane exploded, crashing near the town of Grabovo. The accident scene was littered with metal debris, charred bodies and limbs, stuffed clothes, children's toys and smoldering remains. Ukraine's President Petro Poroshenko called the July 17, 2014, midair explosion of MH 17 as "terrorist act". Poroshenko called Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte to offer his condolence. The flight was carrying 298 people, including 283 passengers and 15 crews. The passengers included 189 Dutch, 44 Malaysians, including crews, 27 Australians, 12 Indonesians, 9 Britons, 4 Germans, 4 Belgians, 3 Filipinos, one New Zealander and one Canadian. Nationality of four passengers remained unknown. Russian President Vladimir Putin didn't deny that the missile that had shot down the plane on July 17, 2014 was of Russian make, but blamed Ukraine for creating conditions on the eastern part of the country for the situation that had yielded such a tragedy.
Meanwhile, it became clear to many international aviation specialists and political analysts that the missile, SA-11, used to shot down the Malaysian Airlines Flight 17 was launched from a Russian-supplied missile system, known as Buk.
World Views Hardening Against Russia
As it was becoming clear that the missile that downed the ill-fated MH17 over Eastern Ukraine was launched by pro-Moscow rebels, world attention was turning on Russian President Vladimir Putin. Especially the rebels' disrespectful handling of dead bodies and tampering with the crash scenes transformed the grief of a befuddled world into anger. Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte had an intense phone conversation with Putin on July 19, 2014 during which Rutte reportedly told Putin that "the opportunity is fading quickly to show the world" that Russian president was serious about wanting to help. The Sunday Times of London said on July 20, 2014 that "Russia did it and Mr. Putin must pay, politically and economically"
Other Accidentally Downed Planes in Recent History
* 1983: Soviet Air Defenses accidentally shot down Korean Airlines Flight 007, killing 269.
* 1988: USS Vincennes, a guided missile cruiser, downed Iran Air Flight 655, killing 290 people.
* October 2001: Siberian Airlines Flight 1812, en route to Novosibirsk from Tel Aviv, crashed into Black Sea, killing all 78 people. Despite its initial denial, Ukrainian military admitted that it accidentally brought down the airline during a training exercise.
Rescue of Bodies and Wreckage Begins in the Crash Site
After days of procrastination and push-back, rebels on July 21, 2014 yielded grounds to give international investigators the access to the crash site, allow recovery effort to collect bodies and belonging, and promise cooperation over wreckage recovery from the Malaysian Airlines Flight 17 crash site in Eastern Ukraine. Meanwhile, at the U.N., Russia fell behind a unanimous draft that was passed by the Security Council on July 21, 2014, condemning the downing of the Malaysian Airlines Flight 17, calling for an international investigation by U.N. civil aviation authority and cessation to hostilities in the region in order to provide unfettered access to the crash site. Ukrainian government announced on July 21 that so far 282 bodies were recovered and 16 remained unaccounted for. Just before the nightfall, the first train with dead bodies left the station at Torez, near the crash site for its overnight trek to Kharkiv, where Dutch government had sent coffins. On early July 22, 2014, rebels handed over the ill-fated airline's black boxes to a Malaysian delegation at the city of Donetsk.
Europe Dithers on Tightening of Sanctions on Russia
European foreign ministers meeting at Brussels avoided on July 22, 2014 imposing tougher sanctions against Russia instead settling for incremental tightening of the noose by restricting Russian "access to capital markets, dual-use goods and sensitive technologies including in the energy sector". However, Europe failed to draw up a comprehensive package of measures and means that would hurt broader range of any individual sector of Russian economy. To the contrary, French President Francois Hollande said on July 22, 2014 that his country would go forward with selling Russia the first part of a deal for two Mistral-class helicopter carrier ships to avoid incurring cancellation fees.
Two Ukrainian Fighter Planes Shot Down
On July 23, 2014, two Ukrainian Su-25 fighter jets were shot down near Russian borders by shoulder-fired missiles. Kiev blamed that the missiles were fired from the Russian side of the border. Both fighter jets crashed near the village of Dmytrivka, east of Donetsk and about five miles from the Russian borders. The pilots had ejected from the jets before they had crashed.
U.S. Blames Russia for Direct Help to Rebels in Eastern Ukraine
Belying any expectation that Russia would wind down its degree of involvement in the crisis that had plagued Eastern Ukraine since the spring in the aftermath of July 17, 2014, downing of Malaysian Airlines Flight 17 allegedly by a surface-to-air missile, Moscow actually accelerated its support for rebel cause by supplying more advanced rocket-launching system, according to U.S. State Department spokeswoman Marie Harf. Harf also said on July 24, 2014 that artillery fires were also launched in recent days from the Russian side of the borders.
Harsher Sanctions Co-ordinated by USA and Europe Against Russia Amid Intensified Fighting
A cross-Atlantic coordination led to almost simultaneous slapping of a broader sanctions regime against Russia on July 29, 2014. An often reluctant Europe found Russia's increasing belligerence over crisis in Eastern Ukraine unacceptable as in the aftermath of downing of July 17, 2014, Malaysian Airlines Flight 17 Russia's involvement in the crisis became more direct as there were instances of firing artillery from its sides of the borders, re-massing of troops along its borders and shipment of armament. The new set of sanctions targeted more areas in defense, energy and banking sectors. The sanctions include restrictions on exports of western technology crucial for unlocking hard-to-find oil and gas. Referring to the enhanced sanction list, European Council President Herman Van Rompuy and European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso said that they were "meant as a strong warning".
Meanwhile, on ground, a joint Australian-Dutch forensic team was stranded in Donetsk for the third straight day as the access to the crash site of Malaysian Airlines Flight 17 remained inaccessible on July 29, 2014 due to intense fighting. As Ukrainian troops were closing in on Donetsk and Luhansk, death toll was mounting over the past day with 24 civilians and 10 soldiers reported to have been killed.
Russian Central Bank to Help Banks Targeted by Sanctions
The Bank of Russia said on July 30, 2014 that it would help ease the pain of financial institutions affected by sanctions imposed by the US and EU a day earlier. Meanwhile, official response of Russia to the newly imposed sanctions was one of defiance and derision. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said that it was beneath Russia to respond to sanctions with tit-for-tat measures. Russia's ambassador to EU, Vladimir Chizkov, though, was not that much restrained as he said on July 30, 2014 during an interview with Russia's Interfax news agency that Europe would suffer more than Russia by the sanctions it had imposed a day earlier.
Investigators Gained Access to Crash Site
International investigators received access to crash site on July 31, 2014 after being blocked off for days as a result of an agreement between the Russian and Ukrainian negotiators at Minsk, Belarus. A team of two Australians, two Dutch and eight officials from OSCE arrived at the crash site on July 31, 2014 for reconnaissance. A larger team of 60 people stayed back at Donetsk, and will join the investigation shortly.
Investigators Fan out Crash Site
Sound of gun fighting in the backdrop and billowing smoke afar, a transnational team of investigators fanned out at the crash site on August 1, 2014 to scour for clues, remains of some 98 passengers and other vital search items. Meanwhile, nearly 200 coffins of crash victims had been sent to Dutch laboratories for identification analysis. Meanwhile, U.S. President Barack Obama used another telephonic conversation on August 1 to put his case and demand for Russian co-operation and constructive engagement to his counterpart at Moscow, Vladimir Putin.
Ukrainian Troops at the Western Edge of Rebel Stronghold
On August 3, 2014, Ukrainian troops made a great stride by bringing their offensive to the western outskirt of the rebel bastion, the city of Donetsk, amid tens of thousands of city resident fleeing the looming mayhem. An estimated 200,000 residents had already fled the city as the so-called self-declared governor of Donetsk, Pavel Gubarev, on August 3, 2014 called for Russian support as that would hasten the defeat of Ukraine's troops "in a day, may be two".
More than 400 Ukrainian Troops in Russian Soil
In a dubious, but highly controversial circumstances, 438 Ukrainian soldiers entered Russia on August 4, 2014. Russian border patrol authorities claimed that they had deserted the Ukrainian military and sought refuge on the Russian side of the border. However, disputing the Russian version of the story, authorities in Kiev said that an unknown number of soldiers with 72nd Brigade found themselves running out of ammunition and subsequently entered into Russia. Amid the political topsy-turvy over more than 400 Ukrainian soldiers entering Russia, Russian Air Force Chief Igor Klimov announced on August 4, 2014 a major air drill involving more than 100 fighter jets in central and western Russia that would continue until August 8, 2014.
Russia Signs Energy Co-operation Deal with Iran
As western sanctions over Ukrainian crisis began to pinch Russian economy, Moscow was also ready to show the world how to respond to the sanctions using geo-political maneuvers and diplomatic bonhomie. On August 5, 2014, Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak signed a five-year agreement with his Iranian counterpart, Bijan Namdar Zangeneh, to broaden their bilateral energy cooperation.
Russia Hits Back with Its Own Sanctions
Responding to the recent western-imposed economic sanctions targeting a broader swath of its economy by the U.S. and Europe, Russia on August 7, 2014 hit back with some unusual toughness by imposing its own sets of sanctions on imports of food and agricultural products from USA and European Union. Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev made the formal announcement during the day, banning imports of beef, pork, fruit, vegetables and dairy products from the USA, European Union, Canada, Australia and Norway for a year. The import ban is likely to have a minimal impact on US as the US food and agricultural product export to Russia last year was a meager $1.2 billion, less than even 1 percent of total US exports of agricultural products. However, the import ban will have more adverse impact on some EU nations as the imports of agricultural products from the bloc last year stood at $15.8 billion, a share of 10 percent of EU's total exports of agricultural products.
Son of the Soil New Rebel Leader
Alexander Borodai, a Muscovite who was acting as the self-proclaimed Prime minister of Donetsk People's Republic, gave up his position on August 7, 2014 for a "Donbass" son, Alexander Zakharchenko.
Russia to Send Aid Convoy to Eastern Ukraine
Russia's announcement on August 11, 2014 that it would send aid convoy to Eastern Ukraine under the aegis of the International Committee of the Red Cross startled the west and took Kiev by surprise. Minutes after Russian declaration, Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko held a telephone call with the US President Barack Obama, and later announced his own humanitarian relief for the Eastern Ukraine. Poroshenko called the Russian move as a potential intervention, and said that the Kiev-initiated relief would be led by international agencies.
UN Estimates 2,086 Deaths in Ukrainian Civil Strife as the Russian Relief Convoy Heads to the Country
The U.N. human rights office at Geneva on August 13, 2014 issued its latest estimate of casualties in the civil war that was raging in Eastern Ukraine. The latest estimate put the death toll at 2,086, sharply higher than its previous estimate of 1,129 issued on July 26, 2014. The latest report points to a sharp escalation of violence and death toll little over past two weeks as an emboldened Ukrainian force asserted its dominance against pro-Moscow rebels at several towns and villages of Donbass region, and now poised for bringing the fight to the twin rebel holdouts of Luhansk and Donetsk. Meanwhile, a 262-truck convoy of Russian relief supplies were headed toward Shebekino Crossing, near Kharkiv, a crossing strictly controlled by Ukrainian government troops, as part of a deal with Red Cross officials.
Russian Aid Convoy Takes Detour, Raises Suspicion
A 262-truck aid convoy sent by Russia on August 14, 2014 took detour from its publicly announced path, and were now headed toward Izvaryne Crossing, a rebel-held checkpoint, instead of government-manned Shebekino Crossing.
British Journalists Witness Russian Vehicles Crossing the Borders
Journalists from Telegraph and Guardian were eye witnesses of Russian vehicles crossing the Ukrainian borders on August 14, 2014 night, and Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko said on August 15, 2014 that several Russian vehicles were destroyed by Ukrainian forces. However, it was not clear on August 15 that the destroyed Russian vehicles mentioned by Poroshenko were the same ones witnessed by the journalists crossing the borders overnight.
Ukraine Accuses Pro-Moscow Rebels of Rocket Attack on Civilian Convoy
Authorities in Kiev on August 18, 2014 accused pro-Moscow rebels of a Grad rocket attack on a convoy that was taking civilians from Luhansk toward Russian border and in between cities of Khryashchuvate and Novosvilivka. The attack, according to Kiev, had killed close to two dozen civilians. However, rebels denied that any rocket attack had even taken place.
Ukrainian Troops Closing on Donetsk, Street Fighting Rages in Luhansk
Making a continuous advance to tighten the noose around rebels, Ukrainian troops engaged rebels in street fighting at Luhansk on August 19, while were closing on Donetsk. Meanwhile a 262-truck aid convoy sent by Russia was still on the Russian side of the borders on August 19, 2014 as there was confusion over the questions of authority and security of the convoy expressed by both Ukraine and Red Cross officials. The crisis in Eastern Ukraine, also known as Donbass, has been fast deteriorating over the past couple of weeks. According to the U.N., at least 2,086 people were dead and over 5,000 wounded in Donbass.
Russian Aid Convoy Enters Ukraine without Escort or Consent
A Russian aid convoy involving more than 250 vehicles entered Ukraine on August 22, 2014 without explicit permission from Kiev or escort from Red Cross in a move that Kiev had called blatant violation of its sovereignty and west had criticized strongly. Russia said that it was losing patience over Kiev's dilly-dallying tactics, and the convoy returned a day later on August 23, 2014 after delivering supplies.
Ukraine Marks Independence Day, Rebels Parade Captive Ukrainian Soldiers
Ukraine on August 24, 2014 celebrated its independence from the former Soviet Union with call for mobilizing troops to defeat the pro-Moscow rebels in country's east. Meanwhile, in a gesture of humiliation and insult on the very day of independence, pro-Moscow rebels paraded dozens of Ukrainian soldiers seized from the battlefield in eastern part of the country.
Ukraine's President Dissolves Parliament
Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko took a drastic and unexpected action on August 25, 2014 by dissolving country's parliament and calling new elections to be held on October 28, 2014. Poroshenko has been accusing many of the lawmakers, most of whom were elected as allies of the Kremlin-linked former President Viktor Yanukovych, of being sympathetic to rebel cause since his assuming of presidency in June. Also on August 25, 2014, Ukraine accused Russia of sending an armored column across the border.
Russian Soldiers Captured Amid Putin-Poroshenko Meeting
As Russian President Vladimir Putin met his counterpart from Ukraine, Petro Poroshenko at Minsk, Belarus, during a regional summit on August 26, 2014, Ukrainian military said that they had captured 10 Russian paratroopers on Ukrainian soil. Addressing the uncomfortable disclosure by Ukrainian military, Putin suggested that Russian paratroopers simply lost their way and Ukrainian soldiers had seized them on the Russian side of the border.
A Third Front Opened with Russian Invasion
Western officials and Kiev authorities said on August 27, 2014 that, in recent days, Russian tanks, armored carriers and troops entered into Ukrainian territory and opened a third front in the war beside Luhansk and Donetsk. The third front lies at the heart of city of Novoazovsk and area to its north. In many ways, Novoazovsk is critical for Russia as the city provides a land connection with Crimea, a peninsula Kremlin had annexed in March 2014, through Mariupol, a port city on the Sea of Azov.
Ukraine Revives Draft as Kiev Accuses Kremlin of Direct Intervention
Ukraine's President Petro Poroshenko on August 28, 2014 in a direct accusation called out Russia for direct military intervention in Ukraine as Ukraine's National Security Council revived the mandatory draft. Russia dismissed the allegation by saying that there might be Russian "volunteers", not soldiers, on Ukrainian soil. The U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine, Geoffrey Pyatt, said on Twitter during the day that since Russian help didn't work out as expected for rebels, Moscow was now embarking on direct military intervention.
Putin Praises Rebels
In the most direct praise for pro-Moscow rebels in eastern Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin, addressing a youth camp near Moscow on August 29, 2014, lauded them for fighting against Nazi-like brutal Ukrainian forces. Putin's comments came a day after Kiev had accused Moscow of directly intervening in the Ukraine as Russian armored personnel carriers had been rolling into the country's southeastern region. Meanwhile. U.N. Assistant Secretary-General for Human Rights Ivan Simonovic said at Kiev on August 29, 2014 that there was a "significant increase in the death toll in the east" as a total of 2,593 people had been killed in fighting since mid-April.
Putin Calls for Negotiation with Rebels
A day after Europe put off further sanctions on Russia for at least a week, Russian President on August 31, 2014 called for negotiation between rebels and Kiev on Donbass. Hours later, Kiev accused pro-Moscow rebels of firing a border guard vessel in the Sea of Azov, an allegation if true would mark an expansion of bitter fighting from the land in Eastern Ukraine to the high seas.
Putin Offers Peace Plan on the Eve of NATO Summit
On the eve of an all-important NATO Summit at the Newport, Wales, Russian President Vladimir Putin gave his latest surprise on September 3, 2014, that too during a flight to Mongolia, by proposing a seven-point peace plan. Putin claimed that he had put down the plan on his notebook during the flight and it spawned off his discussion over phone with his Ukrainian counterpart Petro Poroshenko earlier in the day. The plan, which drew immediate skepticism and scorn from the West, includes:
* Pulling out Ukrainian artillery out of range of rebel strongholds
* An end to airstrikes
* An exchange of all detainees
* Opening up humanitarian corridors for the afflicted regions
* Repairing the damaged infrastructure
* Deploying international observers to monitor cease-fire
Putin's peace plan doesn't mention any hint on possible autonomy for Donbass region, a crucial demand by pro-Moscow rebels. If everything goes as planned, the cease-fire will become effective on September 5, 2014. Meanwhile, at Tallinn, President Barack Obama on September 3, 2014 made some of the harshest statement to date against Putin and called for providing help to Ukrainian security forces, but fell short on specifying on how and where that help would come from. Obama also stressed that security of Tallinn, Riga and Vilnius was as important as Paris and Berlin.
NATO Creates Rapid Reaction Force
The 28-nation North Atlantic Treaty Organization on September 5, 2014 decided to create a 4,000-strong rapid reaction force that could be deployed to the front zone in Eastern Europe on a short notice. The formation, announced at a summit in Newport, Wales, was a hallmark for NATO in the post-Cold War era as it reversed the prevalent mindset of minimal degree of risk posed by Russia as amplified by its March annexation of Ukrainian peninsula of Crimea and would strengthen US argument for shared responsibility by members.
Truce Takes Hold
Sharp at 6PM local time on September 5, 2014, guns fell silent, ammunition stopped dropping at random and people of Eastern Ukraine at last heaved a collective sigh of relief after a truce, though fragile at best, took hold. Earlier in the day, representatives of Ukraine, Russia, pro-Moscow rebels and Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) signed an agreement at Minsk, Belarus. Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko said on September 5 that the agreement was based on a long conversation he had held over phone with Russian President Vladimir Putin and the cease-fire would be overseen by OSCE. Former Ukrainian President Leonid Kuchma and Russian Ambassador to Ukraine Mikhail Zurabov signed the deal on behalf of their nations. The truce marked a welcome break from a conflict that had killed nearly 2,600 people since mid-April.
Europe Decides on Additional Sanctions, But Holds Off Their Implementation
European Union, itself lurking around another round of recession, on September 8, 2014 held off imposing stricter economic sanctions on Russia for supporting pro-Moscow rebels in Eastern Ukraine and fueling the civil war by supplying weapons and resources.
Poroshenko Sees Optimism, Claims Withdrawal of 70 Percent of Russian Fighters
Exuding optimism over a fragile, but much needed, cease-fire that took effect on September 5, 2014, Ukraine's President Petro Poroshenko said on September 10, 2014 that he had reports that almost 70 percent of Russian fighters had withdrawn across the border over the past five days. In addition, as part of the cease-fire agreement, also known as the Minsk Agreement, pro-Moscow rebels had so far freed about 700 Ukrainian soldiers and were to set an additional 500 in the coming days.
Europe Goes Ahead with Sanctions
EU on September 11, 2014 went ahead and imposed stricter economic sanctions further choking off the energy and financial sectors of Russian economy. The sanctions were announced on September 8, 2014, but held off at that time. The sanctions went into effect on September 11 with hope that they would be reversed within weeks after there were tangible proof that Russia was complying with a fragile truce that had taken root in Eastern Ukraine on September 5, 2014. During the day, Obama administration matched the EU sanctions with equivalent measures.
Six Killed in Clashes Despite Cease-Fire
Despite a fragile cease-fire that had begun on September 5, 2014, fighting between pro-Moscow rebels and Ukrainian security forces flared up near the international airport, which is under the control of Ukrainian security, at Donetsk and in areas northwest of the city on September 13 and September 14, 2014. At least six people were reported killed.
Ukraine Leaps Forward with Reform, Closer Ties with Europe
Ukrainian parliament passed two very different measures on September 16, 2014 in two very different ways. One measure strengthens the trade and economic ties with European Union, something the former President Viktor Yanukovych had refused late last year, leading to massive civil unrest, his subsequent ouster from power, Crimean annexation by Russia and a raging civil war in the eastern part of the country until recently only to be followed by a very tenuous cease-fire. The strengthening ties with Europe received a boisterous applause, and thousands of people celebrated the achievement that came after costly political, social and economic turmoil on the streets of Kiev. Hours earlier, lawmakers passed another measure quietly--and without much celebration--that would give Donetsk and Luhansk regions autonomous rule, provide amnesty to rebels and hold local elections in the east in November 2014. The self-rule will be provided for the next three years before any further measures or any possible extension.
Ukrainian President Addresses Congress, Meets President
In a landmark for his political career, Ukraine's President Petro Poroshenko on September 18, 2014 addressed a joint session of Congress in which he had appreciated the US help provided to his country. Separately he also met with President Barack Obama at the White House during the day. Also, the White House announced a $46 million security package for Ukraine's tattered security forces that would include a radar to detect incoming mortar, body armor, patrol boats and heavy engineering equipment. Beside the security assistance, the White House also announced an additional $7 million in humanitarian assistance.
Buffer Zone Deal Signed at Minsk
Adding more teeth to the September 5, 2014, Minsk Agreement, a seprate four-way deal was agreed and inked on early September 19, 2014 at Minsk that called for
* Creating a buffer zone between the the positions of Ukrainian troops and pro-Moscow rebels
* Withdrawing the heavy weapons and foreign fighters from the zone of conflict in eastern Ukraine
The signatories to September 19, 2014, Minsk Agreement included officials from Russia, Ukraine, OSCE and rebels.
Axis of Triangle Formed as Part of a Joint Defense Strategy
A long-planned, joint defense unit was formed on September 18, 2014 at Warsaw by Ukraine, Poland and Lithuania. The unit will consist of thousands of soldiers from the three nations and will be based in Warsaw. The deal was signed by the countries' defense ministers.
Ukraine Denies Using Prohibited Weapons
A day after Human Rights Watch issued a report saying that Kiev had used prohibited munitions such as cluster bombs against rebels in parts of Luhansk and Donetsk, Ukrainian authorities on October 21, 2014 said in no uncertain terms that the report was baseless.
Pro-western Parties Win Elections in Ukraine
Two pro-western parties led by President Petro Poroshenko and premier Arseniy Yatsenyuk won the majority of the seats in the October 26, 2014, parliamentary electiions, thus accelerating the process of country's integration with Europe and separation from Russia. The suffrage was not held in parts of country's Donbass region affected by country's civil war since April.
Separatists Win Presidency in Disputed Elections in Breakaway Regions
Russia-backed rebels held elections in eastern regions of Donetsk and Luhansk on November 2, 2014 in defiance of Ukrainian authorities, UN, US and much of the international community. In the so-called People's Republic of Donetsk, self-styled rebel leader Aleksander Zakharchenko was elected as president, while Igor Plotnitsky scored victory in People's Republic of Luhansk. The elections are in many ways affront to the authority in Kiev as the local elections at the town and village levels are slated, under a peace agreement signed at Minsk on September 5, 2014 that has brought cease-fire to the Donbass, or Eastern Ukrainian, region, on December 7, 2014. Now, the future of those elections are in limbo.
Moscow Recognizes Disputed Elections in Eastern Ukraine
The reaction to November 2, 2014, elections in the breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine was along the expected line. While west, UN, NATO and Kiev called the elections illegitimate, Moscow on November 3, 2014 lent its support to the people's will to choose their own leaders.
Kiev Cutting Off Funding
Ukraine's Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk announced on November 5, 2014 that the central government was suspending funds for the rebel-held eastern region. Because of conflict that had erupted in April and cost more than 4,000 lives, government pension, mail, e-mail traffic and other government services were severely disrupted in the Donbass region. A day earlier on November 4, 2014, Ukraine's President Petro Poroshenko sent reinforcement to government-controlled Mariupol and other regions in face of deteriorating situation on ground.
NATO Accuses Russia of Sending Arms and Soldiers to Ukraine
A week after new Secretary-General of NATO, Jens Stoltenberg, complained about Russian troops movement near the Ukrainian borders, NATO's top commander, US General Philip Breedlove, said on November 12, 2014 in Bulgaria that "columns of Russian equipment, primarily Russian tanks, Russian artillery, Russian air-defense systems and Russian combat troops, entering into Ukraine".
Biden Favors Continuing Sanctions on Russia
US Vice President Joe Biden on November 21, 2014 visited Kiev to mark the first anniversary of the uprising that had erupted against the then-President Viktor Yanukovych for his refusal to sign deals that would forge stronger trade and economic ties with Europe, and assured the Ukrainian officials of Washington's continued support. Biden also said that the economic sanctions imposed on Russia would continue, and asked Moscow to uphold the cease-fire that had been violated several times by both sides since it went into effect in September. At least 4,300 people were killed since violence had flared up in April 2014, including more than 900 after the cease-fire time went into effect. Meanwhile, the NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said on November 21 at Kaunas, Lithuania, that Russia was moving tanks, artillery and weapons into Ukraine, a charge dismissed by Russian foreign ministry.
France Puts on Hold Aircraft Carriers Sale to Russia
As the Russian relations with the west went downhill since its March 2014 annexation of Crimea, so was the lucrative trade deal of France as President Francois Hollande on November 25, 2014 suspended the sale of warship Vladivostok--now docked at the French port-city of Saint-Nazaire, where about 400 Russian sailors had gone through months of training--to Russia as part of a two-part, $1.25 billion deal. Vladivostok can carry 700 sailors, 16 helicopter gunships and up to 50 armored vehicles. A second warship named after the Crimean port city of Sevastopol scheduled to be delivered early next year had arrived at Saint-Nazaire in recent days for finishing touch.
Kiev and Separatists Sign a Deal to Observe Truce
Ukrainian authorities and rebels owing allegiance to Luhansk People's Republic signed an agreement at the prodding of Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) to observe a truce that was signed on September 5, 2014, but often violated by both sides. Approximately a third of 4,300 casualties since the start of civil war in Eastern Ukraine in April 2014 occurred after the truce went into effect, raising question about sincerity of the sides to comply with the truce. OSCE said that the deal was signed on late December 1, 2014, and separatists' leader Igor Plotnitsky confirmed it on December 2, 2014.
Ukraine's Parliament Inches Closer to Join NATO
Ukrainian parliament on December 23, 2014 voted overwhelmingly (303-8) to repeal a provision in Ukrainian constitution that was codified in 2010 and declared the country as "non-aligned". By repealing the non-alignment status of Ukraine, the country's parliament opened the possibility for applying for NATO membership and outraged Kremlin as Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov lambasted the "counterproductive" move. Russia sought Kiev to join a parallel economic bloc consisting of former Soviet Republics that would come into existence on June 1, 2015.
Four-Way Meet Aimed at Preserving Truce Ends Abruptly
A day after Ukraine's parliament voted overwhelmingly to abandon the country's non-alignment status codified in 2010 and paving the way for eventual entry into NATO, a scheduled meeting on December 24, 2014 among pro-Russian rebel leaders, OSCE (Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe) negotiators, Russian and Ukrainian officials at Minsk ended without yielding any fruit. The objective of holding the meeting was to find out a way to sustain a fragile cease-fire that had been violated numerous times no sooner than implemented in early September. The meeting may resume on December 26, 2014 although parties have remained uncertain, especially the Ukrainian parliamentary vote on December 23 to abandon the country's non-alignment status codified in 2010.
Prisoner Swap Amid Lack of Four-Way Talks Among Parties
Ukraine and pro-Moscow militants exchanged one of the largest prisoner swaps on December 26, 2014, with Ukraine releasing 222 rebel captives and militants handing over 145 to Ukrainian authorities. Meanwhile, planned talks on December 26, 2014 at Minsk among pro-Russian rebel leaders, OSCE (Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe) negotiators, Russian and Ukrainian officials were postponed indefinitely. In other notable incidents on December 26, 2014,
* Ukrainian authorities suspended cargo and commercial train services to Crimea as the security in the peninsula had significantly deteriorated
* MasterCard and VISA announced that they were halting their services in the Crimean Peninsula in line with the U.S. sanctions
12 Die in Rocket Attack on a Passenger Bus in the Besieged Town
12 passengers were killed on January 13, 2015 as a Grad rocket landed on a passenger bus in Donetsk. As usual, warring sides of Ukrainian war blamed each other for the attack on civilians.
NATO's Top Commander Indirectly Blames Russia for Re-Arming Rebels
NATO's top military commander Gen. Philip Breedlove on January 13, 2015 said that during the holidays the rebels in the Ukraine's eastern hinterland had received help in terms of replenishing their logistical and battlefield necessities.
Rebels Claim to have Captured a Strategic Airport
Pro-Russian rebels on January 15, 2015 claimed that they had seized the Donetsk International Airport after months of gun-battle and shelling that had reduced the once vibrant airport into a skeleton of devastation.
European Diplomats Meet Russian and Ukrainian Counterparts to Rein in Fighting
Diplomats from Germany, France, Russia and Ukraine met at Berlin on January 21, 2015 to come up with a plan to revive a failing truce and end fighting in the hinterlands of eastern Ukraine. After the session, the group announced that war field foes would withdraw heavy weaponry behind a tentative dividing line. It's not sure who will ensure the compliance, or pro-Moscow rebels, who were not part of January 21, 2015, Berlin Talks, were even interested in complying with the plan.
Mortar Kills 13 at a Bus Stop in Eastern Ukraine
Not even 24 hours had passed by since a meeting at Berlin decided to give another shot to a fragile peace, a mortar rained down on a bus stop at Donetsk on January 22, 2015, killing 13 people. After the incident, pro-Russian rebels paraded the captive Ukrainian soldiers on the streets, and irate mob punched and assaulted them in broad daylight, violating all the battlefield norms and rules.
Rocket Attacks Kill 30 at a Southern Ukrainian Port City
Hours after the so-called leader of the Donetsk People's Republic, Aleksander Zakharchenko, said during an interview with RIA Novosti news agency that a major operation was on in the southern port city of Mariupol, a barrage of rockets struck marketplaces and schools in the city on January 24, 2015, killing at least 30. After realizing the indiscriminate nature of the attack, Zakharchenko seemed to backpedal on the rebel campaign in Mariupol. Instead, he lied the blame at the doorstep of Ukrainian government.
Ukrainian President Blames Rebels for Mariupol Deaths
Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko claimed, based on radio and telephone intercepts, on January 25, 2015 that pro-Russian rebels were responsible for the rocket attacks on Mariupol a day earlier that had killed 30. Underscoring the gravity and graveness of the situation in Ukraine, EU's Foreign Policy Chief Federica Mogherini said on January 25, 2015 that bloc's foreign ministers would meet at an "extraordinary meeting" at Brussels on January 29, 2015 to discuss on Ukrainian situation. Meanwhile, Russia played defensive in the latest escalation as the country's foreign minister, Sergey Lavrov, said on January 25, 2015, during separate conversations with Mogherini and the US Secretary of State John Kerry, that Ukrainian government bore the primary responsibility for the latest escalation.
Rebels Close to Seizing a Strategic Rail Hub
Pro-Moscow rebels in eastern Ukraine surrounded a key rail hub, Debaltseve, on January 28, 2015, and slowly closing in on the city. Debaltseve, if falls under rebel control, will offer strategic win for the separatists and logistical advantage as it will connect two major rebel-held cities: Donetsk and Luhansk.
12 Killed in Mortar Attack as Standoff Continues for Control of Key Rail Hub
As pro-Moscow rebels tightened the noose around a key rail hub city, Debaltseve, in eastern Ukraine, a mortar landed at a civilian position in Donetsk on January 30, 2015, killing 7 people, including five who were waiting outside a community center to receive humanitarian aid. An additional five people were killed on January 30 in artillery strike in the west of Donetsk.
European Leaders Rush to Moscow to Recuperate a Teetering Deal
As the White House had begun in recent days to reconsider its stand on supplying Ukraine with lethal weapons, a seismic shift in policy of the Obama administration that had limited its options to providing non-lethal supplies to Kiev along with humanitarian aid and imposing economic sanctions on Moscow, a desperate Europe tried to bring the warring parties in Ukrainian east from sinking a September 2014 agreement, dubbed as the Minsk Protocol, that had raised at least a faint ray of hope for reconciliation. French President Francois Hollande and German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who had stood steadfast against any possible arming of Ukrainian government troops, rushed to Moscow on February 6, 2015, and met with Russian President Vladimir Putin for more than five hours to keep the Minsk agreement on track. However, the three-way meeting at Moscow among Putin, Hollande and Merkel on February 6, 2015 didn't yield any tangible way forward for the warring parties, and all three had reiterated to continue the discussion in the weekend over telephone.
Telephone Diplomacy Raises Expectations, Leaders to Meet This Week
The weekend telephone talks among German Chancellor Angela Merkel, French President Francois Hollande, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko opened probably the last possible window of opportunity for resuscitating a peace process that had been floundering as soon as it had taken roots. Leaders on February 8, 2015 agreed to meet at Minsk, capital of Belarus, on February 11, 2015 as part of the plan to hash out differences and push the foundering effort of reaching at meeting ground between warring sides. Separatist leaders from eastern Ukraine were also invited to attend the Minsk meeting.
Obama Administration Backs New Initiative with Caveat
Standing beside visiting German Chancellor Angela Merkel at the White House, US President Barack Obama on February 9, 2015 gave a qualified support to the upcoming four-way negotiation at Minsk, Belarus that would start on February 11, 2015 among leaders of Germany, France, Ukraine and Russia to get the Ukrainian peace process back on track, but stopped short of dropping the idea, which gained prominence in recent days in Washington diplomatic and defense circle, of arming the Ukrainian government with lethal weapons.
Another Shot at Cease-Fire Restoration Amid Chaos, Confusion
After 16 hours of marathon talks at Minsk, Belarussian capital, leaders of Germany, France, Ukraine and Russia on February 12, 2015 reached probably the best, as well as the last, possible deal to bring calm in the hinterland of eastern Ukraine. The deal that goes into effect a minute past midnight February 14, 2015, or 12:01 AM February 15, 2015, calls for:
* End in fighting as soon as the deal goes into effect
* Pulling heavy weaponry of both sides behind a sizable buffer zone (30 to 85 miles of width) in three weeks (by March 7, 2015)
* Monitoring of the cease-fire by a mission of Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE)
-- The mission head Ertugrul Apakan said on February 12, 2015, just after the Minsk deal was announced, that it would expand to 500 monitors by the end of month from the current strength of 310.
* Yielding significant autonomy to the eastern region (a concession to separatists) that allows them to form their own police force and trade freely with Russia (thus, indirectly, shutting Ukrainian from any near-term prospect of joining NATO)
* Kiev to have the exclusive authority over the borders with Russia (this is to be implemented after a series of triggers that indicate successful completion of other reforms in country's east, thus making the eastern borders vulnerable to Russian infiltration and invasion in the short run)
* All prisoners on both sides to be released by no later than five days after the deal goes into effect (the fate of a high-profile Ukrainian navigator, Lt. Nadiya Savchenko, who was elected to Ukrainian parliament, awaiting trial in Moscow will be affected by this clause of the deal)
* New polls to be held in Luhansk and Donetsk regions
* Ukrainian authorities to resume government services and social payments such as pension payments and government salaries in the eastern region
Fighting Intensifies Hours Prior to Truce to Begin
A day before the recent truce was scheduled to go into effect, both sides on February 13, 2015 displayed the specter of brinkmanship with fierce fighting and trying to expand their reach. The fighting was especially severe around the rail hub of Debaltseve, where pro-Moscow rebels had surrounded the city from all but one side and thousands of Ukrainian soldiers were trapped inside and might be looking for ways to get out the city that seemed all but fall in the hands of rebels not in days, but in hours.
Cease-Fire Begins amid a Confusing Claim by Rebel Leader over a Strategic Railway Hub
After hours of fierce fighting that had stretched until the last sprint to expand and consolidate their respective reach, the cease-fire went into effect a minute after midnight on February 14, 2015. However, adding to the confusion surrounding a strategic railway hub, the rebel leader of Donetsk, Aleksander Zakharchenko, interpreted the cease-fire differently, saying that Debaltseve , which, if falls under rebel control, will create an important link between Donetsk and Luhansk regions, was not under the purview of cease-fire agreement.
Rebels Seize Rail Station amid a Tenuous Cease-Fire
Amid a cease-fire that was at the brink of collapsing as soon as it had taken hold a minute past midnight on February 14, 2015, government soldiers made a humiliating retreat on February 17, 2015 from a key strategic rail hub in face of sure defeat at the hands of pro-Moscow rebels. For days, rebels laid a siege and chokehold on Debaltseve, and agreed to let Ukrainian soldiers to leave the city through one highway and only after disarming. It's not yet clear how many of 5,000 out-armed Ukrainian soldiers left the city by the end of the day on February 17. The loss of Debaltseve marked a serious--and humiliating--setback for Kiev.
Ukraine's President Asks Help for Peacekeepers
A day after his forces were routed and had made humiliating retreat from a key railroad hub, Debaltseve, Ukraine's President Petro Poroshenko on February 18, 2015 appealed for international peacekeepers to deploy in the country's east to ensure security and safety of its citizens, a stark reminder that Ukrainian forces were not up to mark to step up to the challenges posed by pro-Moscow rebels.
Anniversary of Massacre Marked with Somber
The first anniversary of death of more than 50 protesters at a Kiev square that had forced former President Viktor Yanukovych out of power and precipitated the present crisis was observed on February 20, 2015 with respect and relative quiet without much fanfare amid a humiliating retreat of thousands of Ukrainian soldiers from a key railroad hub, Debaltseve, in eastern Ukraine. Many of the protesters at the square, known as Maidan, were killed in sniper fire. While most of the Ukrainians believe that the snipers who had opened fire on that fateful night of February 20, 2014 were state security personnel, a growing segment of population came to harbor the conspiracy theory that those snipers were actually pro-nationalist militia who had taken up arms against the then-Russian-backed President Yanukovych. Overall, between 110 and 123 people were killed during the 2013-14 uprising in Ukraine.
Memo Reveals Premeditated Crimea Takeover Plan
A hitherto unknown memo written by a pro-Kremlin oligarch showed a detailed and deliberate plan on seizing Crimean Peninsula instead of official Russian stand that it had seized the peninsula as a response to a crisis that had threatened the very existence of Russian speaking people in the region. In a February 25, 2015, report carried by a renowned Russian independent newspaper, Novaya Gazeta, the memo was quoted to have asked the Russian authorities to take advantage of the unstable situation that had been tearing apart Ukraine with "centrifugal forces". The memo was dated February 4, 2014, more than two weeks before pro-Russian President Viktor Yanukovych had fled the country. The memo was allegedly written by an oligarch, Konstantin Malofeev, who would later fund the pro-Russian separatists in the country's east. The memo rightly predicted the downfall of Yanukovych, Ukraine descending into a state of chaos and emergence of situation rife with conditions that warrant pro-engagement Russian policies. Within hours, a Kremlin representative dismissed the memo as "a hoax".
U.N. Issues Death Toll in Ukrainian Civil War
U.N. reported on March 2, 2015 its most updated estimate of death toll in the civil war in eastern Ukraine that had erupted in April 2014. The report, issued by the Assistant U.N. Secretary-General Ivan Simonovic at Geneva on the sidelines of Human Rights Council meting, estimated that at least 6,000 people were killed during the conflict, including more than 800 from mid-January to mid-February of this year (2015). The report was issued on the same day (March 2, 2015) when Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov met his American counterpart John Kerry on the sidelines of HRC meeting at Geneva.
Russia Calls US Military Trainers' Deployment to Western Ukraine a "Provocation"
Official Russian news agency Taas on March 5, 2015 issued a statement on behalf of the country's foreign ministry, blasting the US move to send as many as 300 U.S. military personnel to train battered Ukrainian military force at Lviv region of western Ukraine. The trainers from the U.S. Army's 173rd Airborne Brigade, based in Italy, arrived on March 5, 2015 for a seven-month training regimen.
Key Milestone for Heavy Weapons Withdrawal Seems to Have been Met by Warring Sides
As March 7, 2015 arrived, the international community looked at a key marker--complete withdrawal of heavy weaponry by both Ukrainian security forces and pro-Moscow rebels behind a buffer zone--of the Minsk agreement reached by Germany, France, Ukraine and Russia on February 12, 2015 with nervousness. However, both sides apparently complied with the deal, and almost all of the heavy weapons were withdrawn behind the so-called buffer zone.
U.S. to Give Ukraine $75 Million in Non-Lethal Aid
On March 11, 2015, the Obama administration announced that it would provide $75 million in nonlethal aid to Ukraine. Simultaneously, the administration imposed sanctions on handful of pro-Moscow rebel leaders for fomenting violence and bloodshed in Eastern Ukraine. The $75 million package includes
* Radios
* First-aid kits
* Surveillance drones
* Counter-mortar radar systems
* Military ambulances
* 30 Armored Humvees
* 300 Unarmored Humvees
However, many, including Congressional Republicans, expressed dismay and dissatisfaction that the aid package didn't include any lethal aid. When Congress passed the defense budget in December 2014, it authorized the president to give Ukraine lethal aid. In his comments, House Speaker John Boehner said on March 11, 2015 that "our allies deserve better".
Putin Hails Crimean Annexation on the First Anniversary
Addressing tens of thousands of Russians just outside the Kremlin walls, Russian President Vladimir Putin on March 18, 2015 hailed the annexation of the Black Sea territory a year ago as an act to protect the security of the ethnic Russian speaking people there and regain Russia's "historic roots". Meanwhile, on the first anniversary of this historic annexation, a celebratory mood gripped the peninsula, including Sevastopol. However, taking a political position of tough talking and showing a posture of defiance, Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko said on March 18, 2015 that "Crimea is and will always be Ukrainian".
Russia Blasts US Training Program in Ukraine, UN Estimates Civil War Death Toll More than 6,000
Kremlin took strong exception on April 17, 2015 to the deployment of 300 military personnel from the U.S. Army's 173rd Airborne Brigade early in the day in Ukraine to train the country's beleaguered national guards in a sox-month rotation program called the Operation Fearless Guardian. Meanwhile, U.N. Human Rights Commission reported on April 17, 2015 that at least 6,116 people were killed in the country's civil war since it had erupted a year ago.
U.S. Commander Says, Russia Replenishing the Rebel Pipeline
NATO's American commander Gen. Phillip Breedlove, appearing before the U.S. Senate's Armed Services Committee on April 30, 2015, said that the U.S. needed better intelligence to detect and prevent the deception and folly of the "combined Russian-separatist forces" in Eastern Ukraine. Gen. Breedlove was emphatic on Russia's maneuver to exploit the lull in fighting to "reset and reload" the rebel pipeline both in terms of personnel and weapons.
Ukraine's President Estimates Higher Fatalities than Given by the UN in Country's Civil War
Appearing before the country's parliament, Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko on May 8, 2015 reiterated his oft-repeated complaint of Kremlin's "aggression" that had fueled the conflict in Eastern Ukraine, and said that at least 7,000 civilians were killed, more than the latest estimate given by the U.N. Poroshenko also said that 1,657 Ukrainian soldiers had died too fighting against the rebels.
Ukraine Parades two Russian Special Forces Troops
Repudiating Russia's repeated claims that it was not involved in the civil war in Eastern Ukraine other than extending moral support, Ukrainian authorities on May 18, 2015 paraded two Russian special operations troops captured from the front line, and said that they would be prosecuted.
Top American Commander in Europe Accuses Russia of Fueling Conflict in Ukraine
Addressing an OSCE (Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe) meeting on June 23, 2015, top American commander in the continent, Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges, said that Russia was "actively and massively fueling" the conflict in Eastern Ukraine.
Video Shows Rebels Talking over Accidental Downing of Malaysian Airlines Plane
A video released by the News Corp of Australia on July 17, 2015, the same day Australian Prime Minister Tony Abbott dedicated a memorial in Canberra for 38 Aussies killed a year ago in shooting down of the Malaysian Airlines Flight MH 17 from Amsterdam to Kuala Lumpur, that showed the culpability of rebels in Eastern Ukraine in bringing down the plane. The video showed rebels talking amongst them over mistaken downing of the plane.
U.S. Adds 26 to Sanction List
In expanding the year-long economic sanctions against Moscow, USA on July 30, 2015 added 26 subjects to the list.
Nationalists Violently Protest against Government's Decision for More Autonomy to Separatists
Hundreds of ultra-nationalists on August 31, 2015 demonstrated outside parliament in Kiev as lawmakers took up a measure that would devolve more powers to separatist regions in Eastern Ukraine. The demonstration turned violent as protesters shoved and mishandled security personnel and a grenade lobbed by agitators killed a 25-year-old military conscript. More than 100 were injured. President Petro Poroshenko said during the day in a televised address that the decentralization of powers was "a difficult but a logical step toward peace". Most of the violence against August 31, 2015, parliamentary vote--265 of 450 deputies voting in favor of the measure--was orchestrated by the members of ultranationalist party Svoboda. The decentralization measure will come up for the final vote, and at that time, it requires 300 votes to pass.
Ukraine's New Military Doctrine Calls Russia "Military Opponent"
Ukraine's National Security Council on September 2, 2015 approved the country's new military doctrine that described its eastern big neighbor as "military opponent", a significant shift in its defense and regional security policy that would further push the country's toward NATO and sure to escalate tension with Russia.
Nearly 8,000 Die in Civil War in Ukraine
The U.N. High Commissioner for Human Rights Zeid Raad Hussein on September 8, 2015 issued a report written by the U.N. Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine that shed more light for the international community to grasp the scale of destruction and loss of human lives in eastern Ukraine. According to the report, at least 7,962 people, including civilians, soldiers and rebels, were killed since April 2014 when the civil war in eastern Ukraine had erupted in full force. At least 17,811 people were injured.
Russia, Ukraine Reach an Accord on Lighter Weapons
Supplementing the historic February 12, 2015, Minsk Agreement, representatives from Russia, Ukraine and OSCE (Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe), meeting at Minsk, reached an agreement on September 29, 2015 to remove tanks, munitions, artillery and mortars of up to 120 mm to be pulled back beyond 9 miles off the frontline. Pro-Russia rebels will sign the accord on September 30, 2015, and the process will take place over the next 39 days. Russian negotiator Azamat Kulmukhametov expressed hope on September 29, 2015 for "a path to peace" with the latest accord, an optimism shared by OSCE negotiator Martin Sajdik.
Political Solutions Discussed at a Summit at Paris
Three days after an agreement was sealed at Minsk on the removal of light weaponry from the frontline of the battle zone in Eastern Ukraine, a summit was held at Paris among leaders of Russia, Ukraine, France and Germany--Presidents Vladimir Putin, Petro Poroshenko, Francois Hollande and German Chancellor Angela Merkel--on October 2, 2015 to discuss on a range of issues aimed at seeking a political solution to the conflict that had consumed the Donbass region, leading to more than 8,000 deaths since April 2014.
Rebels, Soldiers Begin Withdrawing Lighter Weapons from the Frontline
Moscow-backed rebels and Ukrainian troops on October 3, 2015 began pulling the lighter weaponry, which are of up to 120 mm, from the frontline as part of a supplemental accord sign at Minsk on September 29, 2015.
Biden Addresses Ukrainian Parliament; Asks Lawmakers to Set Aside Differences
Invoking the memory of patriotism and common good espoused more than a decade ago by the 2004 Orange Revolution, the U.S. Vice President Joe Biden called on the Ukrainian lawmakers during a December 8, 2015, address at Rada, or the country's parliament, to set aside their personal difference and focus on improving the social, economic, security and employment conditions of the country.
Ukraine's Economy Minister Resign over Country's Endemic Corruption
Reflecting a sordid state of affairs confounded by cronyism and all-pervading corruption, Ukraine's western-trained Economy Minister Aivaras Abromavicius on February 3, 2016 sent his resignation letter to President Petro Poroshenko, saying that he would not want to act as a cover for government corruption. After the ouster of a pro-Moscow president, Viktor Yanukovych, in early 2014 and subsequent transition of power to pro-western politicians, the economic mismanagement, cronyism and corruption not only remained unaddressed, but, in many respects, got worse.
Putin Visits Crimea to Mark Second Anniversary of Annexation
Russian President Vladimir Putin on March 18, 2016 traveled to Crimea to mark the second anniversary of the region's annexation by Russia. Putin also inspected bridge being built across the Kerch Strait that would connect Crimea with Russia by road.
Ukraine's Premier Quits amid Bickering
A clear fault line emerged in the relationship between two most prominent pro-western leaders, President Petro Poroshenko and premier Arseniy Yatsenyuk, as the latter on April 10, 2016 resigned over their growing differences. However, Yatsenyuk pledged that he would support the prime minister designate Vladimir Groisman, a member of Poroshenko's political party.
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30th Anniversary of the Worst Nuclear Disaster Marked
Even 30 years after the worst nuclear catastrophe that had ever struck the human civilization, the remnants of the devastation are all over the place surrounding Chernobyl in Ukraine and the neighboring regions of Belarus. Marking the 30th anniversary of the disaster, Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko inaugurated a $2.25 billion project on April 26, 2016 at Chernobyl to construct a shelter over the dilapidated structures of the former nuclear plant. The disaster that had struck on April 26, 1986 was not reported by the then-Soviet authorities, and the world only came to know from the Swedish experts two days later as they had detected higher degree of radiation particles in the air that had drifted off the site of the accident. World Health Organization reported that around 9,000 people had died in direct impact of the Chernobyl accident.
************************ CHERNOBYL NUCLEAR ACCIDENT *********************
Ukrainian Pilot Freed by Russia in a Prisoner Swap
A female Ukrainian helicopter pilot who had become a household name for her defiance in Russian captivity was freed by Moscow on May 25, 2016 in exchange for release of two Russians, claimed by Kiev as members of the Russia's Main Intelligence Directorate, from Ukrainian jails. The pilot, Lt. Nadiya Savchenko was captured from Ukraine's southeast during the height of civil war in June 2014, and in a subsequent trial, was convicted of murder of two Russian journalists and handed down 22-year sentence. The capture of Russians--Capt. Yevgeny Yerofeyev and Sgt. Alexander Alexandrov--from the battlefield strengthened Kiev's accusation that Russian military was actively supporting the rebels. But, Russian defense ministry said that both had quit military to fight on the side of rebels. Capt. Yevgeny Yerofeyev and Sgt. Alexander Alexandrov were tried in Ukraine that was as drama-filled and erroneous as the trial of Nadiya Savchenko, and sentenced to 14-year prison sentence. Hours before the release of Nadiya Savchenko, Russian President Vladimir Putin pardoned her. Nadiya Savchenko was greeted a heroine's welcome at the airport in Kiev, and received by President Petro Poroshenko. While languishing in Russian jail, Nadiya Savchenko was known to have followed Ukrainian legislative proceedings as a federal lawmaker and voted in absentia on some measures.
EU Recommends Extension of Sanctions against Moscow
European Union's 28 member states on June 21, 2016 decided at a meeting in Brussels to extend sanctions on Russia, imposed after its annexation of Crimea in 2014 and over its role in Ukrainian civil war, for an additional six months. The decision is to be ratified by the bloc's senior leaders at a meeting later.
Secessionist Leader Wounded in an Assassination Attempt
The Moscow-backed president of a rebel region in Eastern Ukraine was wounded on August 6, 2016 as a bomb targeted the car that was carrying Igor Plotnitsky, the president of the so-called Luhansk People's Republic. Officials associated with rebels blamed a Ukrainian death squad for trying to annihilate Plotnitsky, a charge Kiev immediately rejected and, instead, accused the rebel infighting. The month of July 2016 turned out to be one of the most violent months since a tenuous cease-fire had taken hold, with 27 Ukrainian soldiers had been killed in renewed fighting.
Putin Accuses Ukraine of Cover Action in Crimea, Threatens to Respond
Russian President Vladimir Putin on August 10, 2016 raised the heat on Ukraine as he held Kiev responsible for the recent killing of a Federal Security Service agent and a Russian soldier in Crimea. Putin alleged, without producing any evidence, that Ukrainian forces were planning to carry out "terrorist acts" within Crimea, and threatened to respond accordingly. Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko dismissed Putin's allegation as "fantasy" and "provocation".
Ukraine Raises Alert for Its Combat Troops
A day after Russian President Vladimir Putin threatened Kiev with dire consequences if it continued with its border infractions and carrying out terrorist activities in Crimea by Ukrainian "saboteurs", the Petro Poroshenko regime on August 11, 2016 declared a combat alert for its troops bordering Crimea.
International Panel Implicates Russia in the Downing of Malaysian Airlines
An international investigation into the downing of Malaysian Airlines Flight 17 in July 2014 concluded on September 28, 2016 that the missile that had hit the flight in the sky over eastern Ukraine had been launched from a Russian missile launcher and the launcher had been hastily returned to Russia in the right aftermath. The Joint Investigation Team had interviewed about 200 witnesses and collected a plethora of items from the wreckage site. According to the JIT finding, a Buk missile downed the MH 17 flight, killing 298 passengers and crews. The conclusion of the inquiry was made public at a press conference in Nieuwegein, Netherlands. The reaction to the report was along the expected line, with Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko calling it another proof that Moscow had been involved in the incident while Kremlin dismissing the report as biased. In 2015 fall, a Dutch safety board arrived at the similar conclusion of Russian culpability.
Babi Yar Massacre Remembered
President Petro Poroshenko led a solemn remembrance on September 29, 2016 to mark the 75th anniversary of Babi Yar massacre. Nazi soldiers and local collaborators had killed nearly 34,000 people, mostly Jews, at Babi Yar, a ravine near Kiev, in the first 48 hours of the occupation in 1941. Poroshenko also announced at the Babi Yar Monument that his government would start building a Holocaust Memorial Center at Kiev with the goal of opening it in 2021.
Quartet Agree on Re-opening Ukrainian Peace Talks
At a meeting in Berlin, leaders of Russia, Ukraine, France and Germany vowed on October 19, 2016 to have a meeting shortly to jumpstart the stalled peace negotiation on eastern Ukraine.
Fighting Erupts in Ukraine, Kiev Blames Moscow
In a flare-up of renewed fighting under circumstances blamed by warring sides on others, artillery and live rounds fell on the government-held city of Avdiivka, north of Donetsk, on February 2, 2017 like flower pedals, forcing residents to scurry for cover and run for their life. At least 15 people were reported to have been killed by the renewed fighting that had erupted last weekend. Kiev blamed Moscow and its proxy in eastern Ukraine for the latest flare-up, a sentiment largely shared even by Moscow-friendly Trump administration whose U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley condemned on February 2, 2017 Russia's "aggressive actions" and warned that sanctions would continue until Crimea was returned to Ukraine. However, Russian President Vladimir Putin, in a state visit to Budapest to meet with Hungary's anti-EU premier Viktor Orban, pooh-poohed the criticism on February 2, 2017, calling it a Ukrainian ruse to extract more aid and sympathy from the west. The U.N. chimed in too, with Undersecretary-General Jeffrey Feltman calling on the international community on February 2, 2017 to resume the peace negotiation and warning parties that the "surge in fighting" might lead to "a dangerous intensification of the conflict".
Worst Fighting in Months Continue as a Key Western Diplomat Warns of Truce Violations
International monitors under the auspices of Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) on February 3, 2017 called for an immediate halt to conflict that had killed, according to Ukrainian military, 19 soldiers and wounded 66 others on the Ukrainian side. Rebel group Donetsk's People's Republic said on February 3, 2017 that 18 of its fighters had been killed and dozens wounded. Summarizing the breach of truce by warring parties, deputy head of OSCE monitoring mission, Alexander Hug, on February 3, 2017 accused both sides of carrying out what were "an incredible amount of cease-fire violations".
Temporary Truce to Restore Town's Electricity amid Assassination of a Rebel Leader
As a temporary cease-fire was called on February 4, 2017 to restore electricity and heating to the residents of the government-held city of Avdiivka, north of Donetsk, in the midst of a hard winter freeze, a rigged automotive exploded and killed a rebel commander, Oleg Anashchenko, with the Lugansk People's Militia. Lugansk Information Center, a rebel co-operative, blamed Ukrainian military for killing Anashchenko by rigging his vehicle.
Russian Parliamentarian who Fled the Country Killed
A Russian lawmaker who had fled the country and settled in Kiev was assassinated on a sidewalk on March 23, 2017. Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko accused Russian government operatives of gunning down the vocal anti-Putin lawmaker, Denis Voronenkov. On the same day, an explosion rocked a Ukrainian arms factory near the eastern city of Kharkiv that had made ammunitions and shells flying allover and forced nearly 20,000 residents to evacuate. Poroshenko called the explosion in the defense factory an act of terrorism and said that it was no coincidence that the sabotage and assassination of Voronenkov had been orchestrated on the same day. Russian President Vladimir Putin's spokesman Dmitry Peskov called the allegation by Poroshenko as "absurd".
Assassin Reportedly Trained by Russians
An adviser to Ukraine's Interior Minister said on March 24, 2017 that the assassin of a Russian lawmaker, Denis Voronenkov, had been trained by Russians. According to Anton Gerashchenko, the adviser to Interior Minister, the killer, Pavel Parshov, had been with Ukraine's National Guard during 2015-2016 before being dismissed on unspecified charges. Parshov was alleged to have been a Russian agent. Voronenkov was gunned down before he was scheduled to meet another Russian parliamentarian, Ilya Ponomaryov, on March 23, 2017, according to Ukraine's chief prosecutor, Yuriy Lutsenko, and both parliamentarians were scheduled to give testimony later in the day.
Russia Blasts U.S. Decision to Send Lethal Arms to Ukraine
After U.S. decided to arm Ukrainian army with lethal weapons, including Javelin anti-tank missiles, Russian officials blasted the decision. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said on December 23, 2017 that Washington had crossed a "red line". Chiming in the muddy water, two U.S. allies, French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Angela Merkel, issued a joint statement on December 23, 2017 urging all sides to observe the Minsk Agreement reached in 2015.
Largest Swap of Prisoners Takes Place Amid Escalation in Fighting
After a month of increased fighting between Ukrainian forces and Russia-backed rebels and days after Trump administration announced to deliver weapons to Ukraine, largest swap of prisoners--involving 73 held by rebels and more than 233 separatists held by Ukrainian authorities--took place on December 27, 2017. The swap of prisoners was called for by the 2015 Minsk agreement, and it had taken place in the past though in much smaller numbers.
Trump Administration Notifies Congress on Arms Sales
President Donald Trump's administration on March 1, 2018 formally notified Congress that it planned to sell 210 anti-tank missiles to Ukraine for defending the country more effectively against Russia-backed attacks in Eastern Ukraine and other external interferences.
Murder of the Journalist Staged to Foil Assassination
In a bizarre turn of events, first a Russian journalist who had fled to Ukraine 15 months ago was announced to have been killed at his Kiev apartment building. Kiev's police chief, Andriy Krishchenko, announced on May 29, 2018 that 41-year-old Russian journalist Arkady Babchenko was found bleeding by his wife at their apartment building and the Kremlin critic succumbed to his injury en route hospital. Then came the dramatic revelation that Babchenko was not only alive, but the entire episode of his death was made up of. The following day on May 30, 2018, at a solemn news conference at Kiev, here appeared Arkady Babchenko to the whoops and applause of stunned corps of journalists, and said that it was a plot originally crafted by Ukrainian Security Service, or SBU, to foil an attempt on his life by a Moscow-initiated hit man. In a dramatic fashion, Arkady Babchenko said that he was even able to make his wife believe in his death although without saying how. There was also no words from SBU chief Vasyl Gritsak on why his agency had believed that Babchenko had his life at stake. Russia wasted no time to denunciate the staged act to malign a neighbor.
Leader of the Separatist Region Assassinated
The fate and future of Minsk II Agreement seemed jeopardy as the leader of Donetsk region in Eastern Ukraine, Alexander Zakharchenko, was killed in a bomb explosion on August 31, 2018 as he was dining at a local restaurant. Russian foreign ministry blamed Ukrainian government for the separatist leader's assassination, and Russian parliament's speaker went as far as saying that Minsk II pact was no longer valid as Alexander Zakharchenko was one of the signatories. Russian President Vladimir Putin hours later issued a statement that stopped short of blaming Kiev for Alexander Zakharchenko's assassination, saying that the Donetsk leader's killing was a "dangerous bet on destabilizing the situation". Alexander Zakharchenko's assassination was the continuation of a string of mysterious assassinations of some high-profile pro-Russian separatist leaders such as 2016 death of Arsen Pavlov followed by a year later of the gruesome killing of Mikhail Tolskykh.
Jailed Filmmaker Awarded Highest EU Human Rights Award
The highest human rights award created by the European Union in honor of dissident Soviet physicist Andrei Sakharov was on October 25, 2018 bestowed upon jailed Ukrainian filmmaker Oleg Sentsov. Sentsov was vocal opponent of annexing his native Crimea and sentenced to 20 years of imprisonment in 2015 for alleged terrorism charges that he had denied.
Separatist Regions Go to Polls Slammed by the West
Donetsk and Luhansk, two separatist regions in Eastern Ukraine controlled by Russia-backed rebels, held regional elections on November 11, 2018 that had seen brisk polling with an approximate 70 percent voter turnout. However, U.S. and the EU criticized the polls, with EU last week issuing a statement, calling the polls as "illegal and illegitimate". European Union statement also added that the polls "are in breach of international law, undermine the commitments taken under the Minsk agreements, and violate Ukraine's sovereignty and law". Although the 2015 Minsk agreements call for elections, they have been held without any input from Kiev, and thus, as U.S. special envoy for Ukraine, Kurt Volker, said last week that these "are elections for entities that have no legitimacy under the Ukrainian constitution".
Russia Impounds Three Ukrainian Vessels, Seizes Two Dozen Crews
In the worst escalation between Ukraine and Russia, Russian coast guards on November 25, 2018 fired on two Ukrainian Navy vessels and an accompanying tugboat as they were crossing the Kerch Strait, boarded on the vessels, seized about 24 crew members and impounded all three vessels. Later in the day, a large Russian ship was seen blocking the passageway of Kerch Strait, a narrow waterbody linking the Black Sea and Sea of Azov. Russia in recent months completed a bridge over the Kerch Strait, linking Crimea and Russia. Moscow and Kiev blamed each other for escalation. FSB, or Russia's Federal Security Service, which oversees country's coast guard operation, said that Ukrainian vessels were sailing through Russian waters without prior clearance and there was "irrefutable evidence" that Kiev had violated the protocols. Kiev call the Russian action an act of aggression. The European Union and NATO called on both sides for restraint, and urged Russia to remove all blockades from the vital Kerch Strait, a lifeline of trade for both Ukraine and Russia as a number of key ports of the both nations are dotted along the Sea of Azov.
Ukraine Imposes Martial Law in the Border Region for 30 Days
Ukrainian President Petro Porosheko, addressing the country's parliament a day after Russian Coast Guards seized two Ukrainian naval vessels and an accompanying tugboat as they were en route from Black Sea to the Sea of Azov through the Kerch Strait, on November 26, 2018 asked for and the parliament approved a 30-day imposition of martial law along the Russian borders. Meanwhile, Russian move to use the U.N. Security Council to criticize Ukraine might have just an opposite effect as Britain, U.S. and France took Moscow to the task for what U.S. Ambassador Nikki Haley called an "arrogant act". British Ambassador Jonathan Allen described Russian act as a forerunner of its effort to control all of the shared waters with Ukraine.
Ukraine's President Dons Military Fatigue to Mark Beginning of Martial Law on Russia Borders
A visiting Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko, wearing combat uniform, visited the border region on November 28, 2018 to mark the beginning of 30-day martial law along the Russia border, encompassing 10 provinces. Moscow dismissed the Poroshenko's action as an act of drama to shore up his flagging popularity before the March 2019 presidential polls. Meanwhile, during the day, 24 Ukrainian crew members seized on November 25, 2018 by Russian coast guards who had boarded their vessels and impounded two Ukrainian naval vessels and an accompanying tugboat as the flotilla was crossing the Kerch Strait made their first appearance at a court in the Crimean capital of Simferopol. Ukraine dismissed the Russian assertion that the vessels had violated international rules, and U.S. special envoy for Ukraine, Kurt Volker, said in Berlin on November 28, 2018 that "there is no conceivable justification that we can think of for the use of force in this scenario".
Ukraine's President Appeals NATO to Send Warships to Sea of Azov
In a far fetching argument, Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko, giving an interview to German daily Bild, appealed on November 29, 2018 for NATO intervention by deploying naval vessels in Sea of Azov. However, NATO is most likely to stay away from any action for a non-NATO member nation that will escalate the already deteriorating situation although the western alliance on November 27, 2018 has issued a statement condemning Russian forces for impounding the Ukrainian vessels two days earlier.
Poroshenko Alleges Border Buildup of Russian Troops; Merkel Calls for "Free Shipping"
Donning military fatigues, Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko, while addressing troops at a military event on December 1, 2018, dropped a bombshell, publicly accusing Moscow of ramping up military presence along Ukrainian-Russian borders. Giving details in a specific breakdown of numbers, Poroshenko alleged that Russia had deployed "more than 80,000 troops, 1,400 artillery and multiple rocket launch systems, 900 tanks, 2,300 armored combat vehicles, 500 aircraft and 300 helicopters" along the border in an escalation that might plunge the region into new tension.
Meanwhile, German Chancellor Angela Merkel on December 1, 2018 said on the sidelines of G-20 summit at Buenos Aires that Russia must ensure "free shipping into Sea of Azov to the Ukrainian coast and harbors". In 2003, Kiev and Moscow signed an agreement that had designated the Sea of Azov and Kerch Strait as international waters. However, 2014 Russian annexation of Crimea altered the equation related to the 2003 agreement.
Ukraine Breaks from Russian Orthodox Church
In a severe blow to the unity of Eastern Orthodox Church, Ukrainian branch on December 15, 2018 declared its separation from Russian Orthodox Church, led by Patriarch Kirill, and installed its own leader, Metropolitan Epiphanius. Addressing a conference of more than 190 bishops, priests and other church officials at the St. Sophia's Cathedral in downtown Kiev, Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko on December 15, 2018 quoted the national poet, Taras Shevchenko, that "Ukraine will no more drink Moscow poison from the "Moscow cup"'. Many do believe though that Poroshenko, who is facing a tough re-election in 2019, is playing the religious card to brighten his poll prospect in the coming presidential election. Metropolitan Epiphanius will travel to Istanbul, seat of Eastern Orthodox Christianity, in January 2019 to seek official independence.
Poroshenko Ups the Ante in the Run-up to Presidential Election
President Petro Poroshenko on February 9, 2019 accused Russia of trying to meddle in the upcoming March 31, 2019, presidential election, and launched his second-term campaign during the day to vow to seek EU and NATO membership for the guarantee of "our independence, national security, freedom and well-being".
Ukrainian Presidential Election Lists 39 Candidates
Ukraine's electoral commission on March 8, 2019 made public the final list of 39 candidates who remained in the fray in the upcoming March 31, 2019, presidential election. At present, the TV comedian Volodymyr Zelenskiy is leading in poll over President Petro Poroshenko.
Presidential Poll Heads to Runoff as TV Actor Leading
Novice candidate and TV comedian Volodymyr Zelenskiy was reported to be leading in the March 31, 2019, Ukrainian presidential election by receiving about 30.4 percent vote. Incumbent Petro Poroshenko trailed in distant second with 17.8 percent vote. Former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko was reported to be hovering around third place with 14.2 percent of vote. The field of 39 candidates is now squeezed into top two vote-getters who will fight it out in April 21, 2019, runoff.
Comedian Trounces Poroshenko in the Runoff
TV comedian Volodymyr Zelenskiy appeared to have steamrolled incumbent Petro Poroshenko in the April 21, 2019, runoff. On April 22, 2019, the final tally was out. Zelenskiy received a whopping 73% vote and Poroshenko received 24%. Also, on April 22, 2019, Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe issued a statement confirming that the Ukrainian presidential election was held in total respect for "fundamental freedoms" and "democratic and orderly transfer of power".
Zelenskiy Assumes the Mantle, Dissolves Parliament
As dramatic as his ascent to power was, equally dramatic was his first action in office after being sworn in as Ukraine's president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy on May 20, 2019: dissolve the parliament and call the early elections.
President Issues Decree for Early Parliamentary Polls
President Volodymyr Zelenskiy on May 21, 2019, first full day as the president of Ukraine, issued a decree to hold fresh parliamentary polls on July 21, 2019.
Russian Tanker Seized
Ukraine's security services said on July 25, 2019 that a Russian tanker used to block the Kerch Strait in November 2018 was seized by its personnel a day earlier at a Black Sea port, complicating the relationship between Ukraine and Russia.
Prisoner Swap Hailed, Criticized
A historic prisoner exchange happened on September 7, 2019 in which Kiev and Moscow had released 35 prisoners each, a move hailed by many as a good will gesture that would help in a baby step approach in normalizing the bilateral relationship. As Ukrainians were flown in to Kiev's Boryspil Airport, dozens of relatives looked excited and joyful, and many rushed to the lounge to hug their loved ones. However, one sore spot in the prisoner exchange program was one of the prisoners that Ukrainian authorities were holding: Volodymyr Tsemakh, a notorious commander who had led a brutal campaign in eastern Ukraine and led a air defense unit in the area where a Malaysian Airlines flight had crashed in 2014. Several Ukrainian lawmakers urged the new Ukranian president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, not to include Tsemakh in the list, and called the prisoner release program as an abject surrender to Moscow.
***************************** TRUMP IMPEACHMENT INQUIRY ******************
Trump Administration Plunges into Turmoil over Whistleblower Complaint
The Washington Post reported on September 19, 2019 that President Donald Trump had pressured Ukraine's new president, Volodymyr Zelensky, during a July 25, 2019, phone call to launch an investigation into his one of his political rivals. A whistleblower, according to The Washington Post, had filed a complaint about it.
Whistleblower Complaint Irks Trump
President Donald Trump on September 20, 2019 launched a full-blown attack on the whistleblower complaint. The whistleblower, an intel officer, based on conversation with other people who had heard President Donald Trump's July 25, 2019, call with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, filed a complaint on August 12, 2019 to Inspector General Michael Atkinson, describing an "urgent concern". The intel IG investigated the complaints over the following two weeks.
On August 28, 2019, Politico reported that Trump administration put a hold on $250 million in military aid to Ukraine.
On September 9, 2019, Atkinson revealed the existence of the whistleblower's complaint to lawmakers and the refusal of acting director of national intelligence, Joseph Maguire, to share the complaint with Congress.
On September 11, 2019, Trump administration released the military aid to Ukraine as it faced a serious tussle with Senate Appropriations Committee which was bent on holding a vote.
On September 13, 2019, House Intelligence Committee Chairman Adam Schiff demanded in a letter that the whistleblower's complaint were to be shared with Congress.
Aid Held off Two Weeks before July Call
The Los Angeles Times and The Washington Post reported on September 23, 2019 that two weeks before the July 25, 2019, Trump-Zelensky phone call in which Trump had pressed the new president of Ukraine to investigate into Biden family, president had ordered his chief of staff, Mick Mulvaney, to put a hold on nearly $400 million in military aid to Ukraine. The administration officials were instructed to tell lawmakers, if asked, that the hold was due to an "interagency process". If this report turns out to be true, this may constitute an evidence of quid pro quo.
Impeachment Inquiry Begins
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi on September 24, 2019 announced the launch of an impeachment inquiry into President Donald Trump's quid pro quo for holding off $400 million in military aid to Kyiv until the new president of Ukraine did initiate an investigation into his political rival. Pelosi's September 24, 2019, launch of impeachment inquiry coincided with a twitter message from Trump, who had been attending the U.N. General Assembly in the New York City, who promised to release the transcript of the July 25, 2019, call with Volodymyr Zelensky. Donald Trump told reporters at the U.N. that he withheld $400 million aid to Ukraine as he was concerned that U.S. was spending more for Ukraine than Europe, comments described as "laughable" by Obama era ambassador to NATO, Ivo Daalder. The European Union, in fact, provided significant help since Russia annexed Crimea and fighting erupted in eastern parts of Ukraine in 2014, totaling $16.5 billion. Meanwhile, the whistleblower's lawyer, Andrew Bakaj, had notified the Acting DNI Joseph Maguire that his client wanted to "contact the congressional committees directly", according to a September 24, 2019, publication of The Washington Post. Joe Biden's son, Hunter, served in the board of directors of Burisma, a Ukrainian gas company, for five years.
Call Transcript Released by the White House
A day after Speaker Nancy Pelosi announced the launch of impeachment inquiry, the White House on September 25, 2019 released a non-verbatim transcript, five pages compiled by note-takers. The call memo shows that Trump in fact has asked for a "favor" to investigate into Hunter Biden, son of his political rival, former V.P. Joe Biden. The transcript also shows that the president has also said to Volodomyr Zelensky during July 25, 2019, call that "I will tell Rudy and Attorney-General Barr to call you" to facilitate the inquiry into Bidens.
Hours after the White House released the July 25, 2019, telephone call between Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in which Trump pressed Ukraine's new president to launch investigation into Hunter Biden's wrongdoing, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi met with House Democratic leaders behind closed doors, and a decision was made by the House Democratic leaders to narrow down the focus on the president's July 25, 2019, telephone call with Volodymyr Zelensky.
White House Staffers Aim to Suppress Trump-Zelenskiy Call
As more and more information are pouring in from the whistleblower's complaints against President Donald Trump for pressing his Ukrainian counterpart during a July 25, 2019, phone call to launch an investigation into Joe Biden and his son, Hunter, The Washington Post reported on September 26, 2019, quoting the whistleblower's complaints, that unidentified White House staffers removed the conversation transcript from the standard White House server to a classified server, raising all the signs of facts suppression. The whistleblower, an intel officer, in seven pages listed starkly how Trump had pressed a foreign counterpart "to solicit interference" in the "2020 U.S. election". Although the whistleblower didn't have first-hand knowledge of the conversation that had happened on July 25, 2019 between Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelenskiy, the whistleblower felt with "urgent concern" what he had known from half a dozen officials about the quid pro quo nature of the phone call.
The whistleblower had filed the complaint to the Inspector-General of Director of National Intelligence Office on August 12, 2019, but Director Joseph Maguire didn't hand over the complaint to Congress.
Appearing before a House panel, Director of National Intelligence (DNI) Joseph Maguire tried on September 26, 2019 to justify why he had held the whistleblower complaints, addressed to the chairmen of House and Senate intelligence committees, and gave his moral support to the whistleblower as, according to Maguire, the complaint had been lodged in "good faith". As far as his refusal to hand over the complaint to Congress was concerned, Joseph Maguire said that he was trying to get guidance from the Justice Department. On the same day testified in the House, House Intelligence Committee Chairman Adam Schiff made the whistleblower complaint public.
President Donald Trump lashed out at the whistleblower during a private address on September 26, 2019 to the staff of U.S. envoy to the U.N. Kelly Craft to express thanks for a successful hosting of the just-concluded U.N. General Assembly in the New York City, characterizing the whistleblower as a "traitor" and "spy" and added that in old days there was a way to deal with "traitors". The Los Angeles Times reported Trump's comment during the address to the U.S. staff to U.N. at the Intercontinental Hotel.
Pompeo Subpoenaed by House Committees; Pelosi Accuses Barr of Cover-up of All Cover-ups
Trump's now infamous July 25, 2019, phone call with the new Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy is ensnaring more and more Trump administration officials with every passing day. In that infamous call, Trump pressed the new president of Ukraine to probe Joe Biden, his political rival in 2020 election, and his son, Hunter Biden. Days before the July 25, 2019, call, Trump administration put a hold on hundreds of millions of dollars of defense aid that had already been approved by Congress, and during the call with Zelenskiy, Trump appeared to have linked this defense aid to starting an inquiry into Biden and his son. Trump also offered the service of his personal attorney Rudy Giuliani and Attorney-General William Barr. The appearance of quid pro quo led to a whistleblower complaint against Trump, paving the way for House of Representatives to begin an impeachment inquiry against Trump on September 24, 2019. Hunter Biden served in the Ukrainian gas company, Burisma, country's largest private gas company controlled by a pro-Russian oligarch, for nearly five years, and in 2014, Joe Biden pressured Kiev to fire the then-prosecutor Viktor Shokin. It was only not the U.S. administration, but also European governments wanted Shokin to be out as he was not doing enough to investigate Ukraine's endemic corruption. Apparently, Shokin was also inquiring at that time Burisma, and that inquiry was not public. Viktor Shokin's inquiry was not targeted against Hunter Biden and Hunter was not accused of doing any wrongdoing.
Now, July 25, 2019, Trump-Zelenskiy call at the heart of an impeachment proceeding in the House of Representatives, and after the going through the whistleblower complaint in thorough manner, three chairmen of House's powerful panels--Intelligence, Oversight and Foreign--issued subpoena on September 27, 2019 against Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. House Intelligence Committee Chairman Adam Schiff said during the day that his committee would work full-blown during the time of two-week recess.
Speaker Nancy Pelosi on September 27, 2019 aimed at Attorney-General William Barr, accusing him of doing Trump's dirty laundry of "cover-up of all cover-ups".
Heated Rhetoric between Pompeo and House Democrats
Chairmen of House Intelligence, Foreign and Oversight Committees on October 1, 2019 railed against Mike Pompeo for intimidating State Department employees ordered to depose before the panels, calling the Secretary of State's action as "illegal" and "will constitute evidence of obstruction". On behalf of Adam Schiff, Elijah Cummings and himself, the foreign affairs panel's chairman, Elliot Rangel, issued a joint statement. Mike Pompeo, reported to be a participant in July 25, 2019, phone conversation between President Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelenskiy, blamed the House Democrats of running a witch hunt. It is reported that at least two of the five State Department employees or former employees are going to appear before House. They are Kurt Volker, a special former envoy for Ukraine, and former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine Marie Yovanovitch, who has been recalled by Pompeo.
Volker Appears before House Investigators
Former U.S. Special Envoy for Ukraine Kurt Volker, who resigned last week after being named in the whistleblower complaint, told the house investigators on October 3, 2019 behind closed doors that he had warned President Donald Trump's personal attorney Rudy Guiliani that the Ukrainian sources for information he had been trying to scout out were not reliable, referring to former top prosecutor who had been fired after Biden, EU and IMF put pressure for not doing enough to fight corruption.
Trump Kicks the Political Dust, This Time Urging China to Probe Biden and His Son
In an unprecedented, open call to a foreign country, President Donald Trump on October 3, 2019 called Chinese President Xi Jinping to launch an investigation into his political rival, Joe Biden, and his son, Hunter, for bilking billions of dollars out of China. The allegation is without any basis.
House Democratic Investigators Issue Subpoena for White House Documents
On October 4, 2019, House Democrats issued subpoena to get a hand on White House document related to a quid pro quo that had been revealed in a July 25, 2019, phone call between Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelensky in which Trump linked $400 million military aid to Kyiv to launching an investigation into Hunter Biden. Trump also apparently asked Zelensky to see what had happened in 2016 U.S. election, implying Russia might have been wrongly implicated and accused of interfering in 2016 U.S. Presidential Election. Meanwhile, the special U.S. envoy to Ukraine, Kurt Volker, who had resigned last week, appeared before the House investigators for 10 hours on October 4, 2019 behind the closed doors, and also handed over to the House investigators his text messages. Kurt Volker's message revealed a more convoluted link to a concerted effort by Trump administration to condition disbursement of $400 million in military aid to Ukraine on starting an investigation into the family of his political rival. Kurt Volker's text message includes a critical message by the Acting U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine Bill Taylor, who called it "crazy to withhold security assistance for help with a political campaign". U.S. Ambassador to E.U. Gordon Sondland pushed back to Bill Taylor's September 9, 2019, text, saying that there was no "quid pro quo".
A Second Whistleblower Comes Forward
Attorney Mark Zaid, who is one of the lawyers of the first whistleblower, said on October 6, 2019 that he had a second whistleblower client who could corroborate the account of the first whistleblower. Unlike the first whistleblower, the second whistleblower has first hand knowledge of what President Donald Trump has told Volodomyr Zelensky during a July 25, 2019, call that constitutes a quid pro quo and a probable impeachable offense.
White House not to Cooperate with House Impeachment Inquiry
Trump White House on October 8, 2019 sent an eight-page letter to the House, stating in very clear words that it would not cooperate with the House investigation into Trump. The letter also called out the impeachment inquiry as "unconstitutional".
***************** GIULIANI AIDES ARRESTED
Giuliani's Aides Arrested
Two of Rudy Giuliani's aides, who had hailed from the former Soviet Union, had been arrested on October 9, 2019 as Lev Parnas and Igor Fruman were about to board a flight with one-way tickets at the Dulles International Airport. Both Parnas and Fruman were working overtime for Ukraine to pursue an investigation into Bidens. Lev Parnas and Igor Fruman were accused of violating campaign finance laws by donating to Pete Sessions' campaign. Four people were indicted as part of Parnas and Fruman charges. The other two were Andrey Kukushkin and David Correia. Correia, blamed for soliciting foreign money to start recreational marijuana business in Nevada and other states, was in the middle-east when the indictment was issued, and he returned on October 16, 2019 to turn himself in. David Correia was arrested upon return and released on bail. Both Andrey Kukushkin and David Correia are due in court on October 17, 2019.
Giuliani Associate Pleads Guilty
A Florida businessman who had aided Rudy Giuliani's effort to unearth dirt on President Joe Biden as the former vice president was gearing up for the 2020 presidential poll pleaded guilty on September 10, 2021 to funneling money from a Russian business baron, who happened to be a cannabis investor too, to Democrats and Republicans in exchange for gaining the distribution rights of marijuana in several U.S. states. Igor Fruman, a former Giuliani associate, was arrested at the Dulles International Airport in October 2019.
Giuliani
Associate Convicted
A
former associate of Trump confidante Rudy Giuliani, Lev Parnas, on October
22, 2021 was convicted on charges of campaign finance law violation,
including funneling money from a Russian entrepreneur into U.S. politics, after a two-week jury trial. On June 29, 2022, Lev Parnas was sentenced to 20-month imprisonment.
Giuliani Associate Sentenced
A federal judge on January 21, 2022 sentenced Igor Fruman,
a former associate of Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani, to one
year and one day in prison for campaign finance violation. In addition, U.S.
District Judge J. Paul Oetken imposed a fine of $10,000. Igor
Fruman worked on behalf of Giuliani to find dirt on the then-presidential candidate
Joe Biden to tar the former vice president over a Ukrainian business involvement
by his son, Hunter Biden. However, Igor Fruman was indicted on a
separate campaign finance violation charge as he had tried to solicit campaign
contribution from a Russian entrepreneur, Andrey Muraviev, for the Republican
political campaigns in Nevada, Florida and other states as a quid pro quo for
his proposed recreational marijuana business.
No Charges Forthcoming against Giuliani
Based on the seized records from 16 electronic equipment and other
information looked at by the grand jury, prosecutors on November 14, 2022
announced that they would not bring any charge against former confidante of Donald
Trump. The attorney of Rudy Giuliani, Robert Costello, said
that it was a “total victory” for his client. The government was pursuing
whether Rudy Giuliani had violated law related to the foreign agent
registration act for his work related to Ukrainian figures as part of an effort
to dig dirt on the then-candidate Joe Biden. Authorities carried out search at
Giuliani premise and seized 16 electronic devices after obtaining search warrant.
***************** GIULIANI AIDES ARRESTEDFormer Ambassador to Ukraine Punches Hole to Administration's Arguments
Former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine and career diplomat Marie Yovanovitch on October 11, 2019 appeared behind closed doors before House investigators and dressed down the Trump administration in no flattering terms. The Washington Post reported that Yovanovitch told the House investigators that she was let go because of pressure of Trump and Trump's personal attorney Rudy Giuliani, who deemed the diplomat as a roadblock to launching into inquiry into Bidens. Also, veteran diplomat portrayed a department sagged by lack of morale among foreign services officers and a department that had been "attacked and hollowed out from within". When Marie Yovanovitch was recalled by Mike Pompeo, he didn't personally notify her. Instead, that task went to John Sullivan, the Deputy Secretary of State, who later was nominated to be ambassador to Kyiv.
E.U. Ambassador to Appear before House Investigators
Defying the State Department directive, U.S. Ambassador to E.U. Gordon Sondland, a prolific former donor to Trump, said through his lawyers--Robert Luskin and Kwame Manley--on October 11, 2019 that he would testify before House investigators, but would not provide any document, complying with the department directive.
E.U. Ambassador to Give Damning Testimony
The Washington Post reported on October 12, 2019 that the U.S. Ambassador to the E.U. Gordon Sondland would tell the House investigators in the coming days that the text he had sent on September 9, 2019 to the Acting Ambassador to Ukraine William Taylor--saying no quid pro quo regarding holding up $400 million in military aid to Kyiv--had been instructed by President Donald Trump. That will be damning to the president and his personal lawyer Rudy Giuliani. Hours before the September 9, 2019, text, Sondland received another text, according to The Washington Post, from William Taylor, questioning the rationale of holding up $400 million in military aid to Ukraine. Taylor was clearly upset that the military aid had been put on hold apparently on the condition that Kyiv open an investigation into Bidens, and called Trump's move as "crazy". Gordon Sondland, a wealthy Portland hotelier who had donated $1 million to Trump's inaugural committee through four of his limited liability corporations, in the aftermath of receiving the text from Taylor called up Trump, who was in a foul mood and said that "quid pro quo" had not existed. Sondland will appear before the House investigators on October 17, 2019.
First of Three Administration Officials Appears before House Investigators
Despite stone-walling and White House's October 8, 2019, letter to the House investigators vowing not to cooperate with the impeachment investigation, the first of the White House officials, a former Russia adviser, Fiona Hill, appeared before the investigators behind closed doors on October 14, 2019. Her eight-hour testimony was revealing in detailing the involvement of Rudy Giuliani who had pressed Kyiv to open investigations into Bidens. Fiona Hill, former top Russia and Europe expert in the National Security Council, testified that John Bolton, her former boss, had been outraged by what Bolton saw as Giuliani's shadow operation and likened the former New York mayor to a "hand grenade". House Intelligence Committee, Oversight Committee and Judiciary Committee investigators asked Fiona Hill, Michael McKinley and George Kent to appear before the investigators. Michael McKinley is a 37-year career diplomat, who has worked as a de facto chief of staff of Secretary of State Mike Pompeo until he has resigned on October 11, 2019. Another state department official George Kent has been asked to appear before the investigators on October 15, 2019, a day before McKinley has been asked to appear.
George Kent Implicates Mulvaney
The Washington Post reported on October 15, 2019 that the deputy assistant secretary of state, George Kent, appearing behind closed doors said that Trump's Chief of Staff Mike Mulvaney had organized a meeting in the Spring of 2019 where a decision was made to take the Ukraine policy out of traditional channel to delegate it to "three amigos"--Rick Perry, Trump's energy secretary; Gordon Sondland, U.S. ambassador to the E.U.; and Kurt Volker, former special U.S. envoy to Ukraine--implicating Mulvaney in the White House's abuse of power investigation.
McKinley Says, He Has Resigned over Ukraine Policy
The career diplomat and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo's de facto chief of staff, Michael McKinley, who had resigned on October 11, 2019 after a stint of 37 years, told the House impeachment investigators on October 16, 2019 that he had resigned over the maltreatment of career employees at the state department and how Trump administration had put pressure on Ukraine to open investigation into a political rival of President Donald Trump.
Mulvaney Links Ukrainian Aid to Investigation, Sondland Appears before Investigators
U.S. Ambassador to E.U. Gordon Sondland, who had not appeared before the House impeachment investigators in an October 8, 2019, session under the presidential order, defied White House diktat on October 17, 2019 as equations had changed in the last nine days with House investigators issuing subpoena and appeared before the investigators behind closed doors. Gordon Sondland was reported to have told the House investigators that President Donald Trump had repeatedly instructed the wealthy hotelier and one of the most prolific Trump benefactors to coordinate Ukraine policies with the president's personal lawyer, Rudy Giuliani.
During the day, October 17, 2019, another shocking event was playing out in the White House as Trump's chief of staff, Mick Mulvaney, implied at a press conference that the $400 million military aid to Ukraine was conditional to Kyiv opening an investigation into Trump's political rival, thus playing straight into the arms impeachment investigators. Hours later, though, Mulvaney tried to clarify his statement and said that it had been misconstrued, but the damage had already been done.
Military "Purple Heart" Testifies about His Deep Concern over Ukraine Dealing
A 20-year military veteran who had served in Iraq and won the "Purple Heart" and then gone to serve the national security orbit testified behind closed doors to the House impeachment investigators on October 29, 2019 that he had reported his concerns to National Security Council's lead counsellor over discussions related to two different meetings with Ukrainians in July 2019. According to the testimony as reported by The Washington Post, Lt. Col. Alexander Vindman first raised a concern over a July 10, 2019, White House meeting between Ukrainian officials and Trump administration officials, including so called "Three Amigos"--Energy Secretary Rick Perry; Kurt Volker, the then-special envoy for Ukraine; and Gordon Sondland, a wealthy hotelier who had contributed generously to Trump campaign and later became the U.S. ambassador to E.U.--and former National Security Adviser John Bolton.
Lt. Col. Vindman listened to the July 10, 2019, conversation--where Gordon Sondland had pressed Ukrainian officials to deliver "specific investigations" into Bidens and any possible Ukrainian meddling into 2016 U.S. elections to secure holding of a White House meeting between Ukraine's new president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, and Trump--from the White House Situation Room along with other NSC officials and members of the Vice President Mike Pence's team. Lt. Gen. Alexander Vindman later told Sondland, according to his testimony, his statements to Ukrainians were "inappropriate". The July 10, 2019, meeting was organized by the White House Chief of Staff Mick Mulvaney. The demand for inquiries into Bidens and whether Ukraine had meddled into U.S. presidential elections in 2016 was part of Trump's reelection campaign to throw dirt on one of his chief rivals and feeding into the long-running conservative conspiracy narrative that it was Ukraine, not Russians, who had meddled in the U.S. elections in 2016 to favor Democrats.
John Bolton was enraged by the July 10, 2019, meeting and walked out of the meeting, and afterwards told his direct report Fiona Hill, NSC's top expert for Russia and Europe, that Donald Trump's personal lawyer Rudy Giuliani was a "hand grenade" who would blow up everybody and he had nothing to do with a "drug deal" like Ukrainian policy led by Giuliani, according to testimony by Fiona Hill who had appeared earlier in October 2019.
Lt. Col. Alexander Vindman also reported President Trump's July 25, 2019, phone call with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in which Trump had nudged apparent quid pro quo with Kyiv to launch investigations into one of his political rivals and any possible Ukrainian meddling in the 2016 U.S. presidential polls in exchange for release of $400 million in military aid.
Lt. Col. Vindman is the current employee of the administration and appeared before the investigators under subpoena. Donald Trump was so incensed by Vindman's testimony during the day that he took tweeter to blast Vindman, calling him a "never Trumper".
Two Career State Department Officials Testify
Two foreign service officers testified behind closed doors on October 30, 2019, and according to The Associated Press, both said that Trump administration had engaged back-channel diplomacy with Ukraine. Foreign Service Officer Christopher Anderson told the House investigators that John Bolton had cautioned him about Rudy Giuliani, "a key voice with the president on Ukraine", who could complicate Ukraine policy.
A second foreign service officer, Catherine Croft, said that during her tenure with the National Security Council, she had received multiple calls from lobbyist Robert Livingstone--a former Republican lawmaker who had been once in line to become speaker of the House--demanding that former Ambassador Marie Yovanovitch be removed. Yovanovitch was recalled in May 2019.
House Votes for Public, Formal Impeachment Hearings; Departing White House Aide Testifies
House of Representatives on October 31, 2019 took the historic step and moved forward with a package of formal rules to hold public impeachment hearings in the coming week. The vote, 232-196, was along the party line, only two Democrats--Rep. Colin Peterson of Minnesota and Rep. Jeff Van Drew of New Jersey--voting against along with all the GOP members of the House. The vote was held after GOP complaint for the past week that the House Democrats were going through fishing expedition with hearings behind the closed doors. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi called the vote "solemn occasion".
During the day, a departing White House aide testified behind closed doors and corroborated the earlier accounts that the White House military aid release was conditional on opening an investigation into Bidens. The October 31, 2019, testimony by Tim Morrison, who reported to John Bolton, was unique in the sense that he, unlike previous administration officials, was not a career official, but rather a political appointee. Tim Morrison told the House impeachment investigators, according to The Associated Press, that he had talked to the Acting Ambassador William Taylor twice in the first week of September 2019. First time, he shared with Taylor on September 1, 2019 that Gordon Sondland, U.S. ambassador to the EU, had informed the Ukrainians that there was no aid coming until they began investigation into Burisma, the energy company where Hunter Biden was a board member. Then again, Morrison called Taylor on September 7, 2019, according to the testimony, to share his "sinking feeling" on Trump's conversation with Sondland that Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelensky must publicly announce that he was opening investigations into Bidens and whether Ukraine had meddled in the 2016 presidential election.
House Democrats May Add "Obstruction of Congress" Charges
The Washington Post reported on November 1, 2019 that House Democratic leaders who would spearhead the public impeachment proceedings might be tempted to add "obstruction of Congress" count to the existing "abuse of power" count. The rationale for thinking of adding additional charges centers around President Donald Trump's online, real-time rant against key witnesses such as Lt. Gen. Alexander Vindman and former acting ambassador to Ukraine, William Taylor.
House Releases Transcript of Yovanovitch's Testimony that Sheds Light on Jeff Sessions
House of Representatives' impeachment investigators on November 4, 2019 released a 317-page transcript chronicling the October 11, 2019, testimony by former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine Marie Yovanovitch. Yovanovitch, according to the transcript, told the investigators that former House Rules Committee Chairman Rep. Pete Sessions had worked overboard to oust her. She also added that Ukraine's former chief prosecutor, Yuri Lutsenko, had wanted her to be out as ambassador. A day before Marie Yovanovitch's testimony, two Soviet-born aides of Rudy Giuliani, Lev Parnas and Igor Fruman, were arrested at Dulles International Airport on October 10, 2019. They had one-way tickets although they were supposed to appear before House investigators later that week. Federal prosecutors indicted them on charges of illegally funneling foreign money in the U.S. campaigns. They had helped Rudy Giuliani to press Ukraine to launch investigate into Bidens. The indictment alleges that Lev Parnas and Igor Fruman had raised $20,000 for Pete Sessions around the time that they had enlisted his assistance in "causing the U.S. government to remove or recall the then-U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine". On May 9, 2018, the then-chairman of Rules Committee, Jeff Sessions, wrote letter to Secretary of State Mike Pompeo urging him to remove Marie Yovanovitch. The same day, Lev Parnas posted a photo with Jeff Sessions on his Facebook post. Marie Yovanovitch was recalled from her position this Spring.
House Releases Transcript of Revised Testimony of Sondland
House impeachment investigators on November 5, 2019 released a transcript that included a revised testimony of U.S. Ambassador to the EU Gordon Sondland. According to revised testimony, Sondland had informed the Ukrainian officials that a coveted White House sit-down between Trump and Zelenskiy and release of $400 million in held-up defense aid are conditional on launching an investigation into Bidens.
Taylor's Testimony Released; A Clear Quid Pro Quo Traced
House impeachment investigators on November 6, 2019 released the transcript of Acting U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine William Taylor's October 22, 2019, testimony held behind the closed doors. The transcript spells further trouble for president as Taylor has said that his understanding has been that Ukraine needs to open an investigation into Bidens to have the $400 million in military aid released.
Vilification Effort Detailed
House impeachment investigators on November 7, 2019 released the transcript of October 15, 2019, closed-door testimony of a State Department official, George Kent, deputy assistant secretary of the department's European and Eurasean Bureau. George Kent testified that there was a smear campaign, encompassing in "full of lies and incorrect information" spearheaded by President Donald Trump's personal attorney, Rudy Giuliani, against the then-Ambassador Marie Yovanovitch. Marie Yovanovitch was recalled in May 2019.
Close to Quid Pro Quo Information Detailed by NSC Aides
House investigators on November 8, 2019 released transcripts two National Security Council officials, including Lt. Gen. Alexander Vindman, who took the front seat and gained first hand information about both July 10, 2019, meeting with Ukrainian officials and July 25, 2019, phone call between Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy. According to Fiona Hill, who reported to John Bolton, Gordon Sondland, the U.S. ambassador to E.U., told a visiting Ukrainian delegation on July 10, 2019 that he had worked out a trade with White House Chief of Staff Mick Mulvaney about a White House reception of Ukraine's president if an investigation [into Biden family] was launched. That made Hill's boss, John Bolton, to be "stiffened". John Bolton later left the meeting. Fiona Hill followed Sondland and others into the next meeting where the topic was to launch investigations into Bidens to secure a presidential meeting at the White House. After Fiona Hill told John Bolton what had been discussed in the second meeting, Bolton asked her to "tell Eisenberg that I am not part of whatever drug deal Sondland and Mulvaney are cooking up on this", referring to National Security Council lead counsel John Eisenberg. John Bolton also told Fiona Hill that Giuliani "is a hand grenade that's going to blow everybody up". Alexander Vindman also listened to July 10, 2019, and July 25, 2019, conversations, and reported both of them to Eisenberg.
Pentagon Official Points to Ukraine's Knowledge about Aid Hold
Trump administration's one pillar of argument against any quid pro quo was that Ukraine didn't know why there was a hold on nearly $400 million military security assistance. That pillar was virtually shattered by testimony of a Pentagon official, Laura Cooper, a deputy assistant secretary of defense who had overseen the military assistance to Ukraine. House Intelligence Committee on November 11, 2019 released the transcript of Cooper's closed-door testimony. According to Cooper's testimony, Ukrainians knew about the hold of military assistance and Kurt Volker, a former envoy to Ukraine, had hinted Laura Cooper that the release of the aid be tied to Kyiv opening investigation into whether Ukraine--not Russia--had meddled in 2016 U.S. election.
Public Hearings Open; Give Insight into Ukraine Controversy
U.S. House Intelligence Committee held its first public hearing on November 13, 2019 related to President Donald Trump's impeachment process, with two highly respected diplomats appearing under the oath. They were Acting U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine William Taylor and Taylor's boss, George Kent, a deputy assistant secretary of state. Taylor made a new bombshell allegation that was hitherto unknown and came to Taylor's knowledge only in the recent days. A day after President Donald Trump's July 25, 2019, phone call with his Ukrainian counterpart, Volodomyr Zelenskiy, in which the president had pressed for investigation into his political rival, the U.S. ambassador to E.U., restaurateur Gordon Sondland, called Trump on July 26, 2019 from a Kyiv restaurant. At that time, a U.S. foreign service officer, David Holmes, was present and had heard Gordon Sondland giving President Donald Trump an update about the meetings he had held with Ukrainian officials at Kyiv. This is the first time, information about Donald Trump's additional involvement in Ukraine's affair came to the light. William Taylor told the House Intel committee members that he had heard the July 26, 2019, phone call between Gordon Sondland and President Donald Trump from his aide, David Holmes, only on November 8, 2019, weeks after his October 22, 2019, closed-door appearance. Gordon Sondland incidentally told the reporters at Kyiv on July 27, 2019 that he had talks with President Trump after two presidents' phone call on July 25, 2019, but it was not sure whether Sondland was referring to his July 26, 2019, phone call--overheard by David Holmes who had accompanied the U.S. ambassador to E.U to a Kyiv hotel-- he had made to update President Donald Trump about his meetings with officials in Kyiv.
Before this new information, President Donald Trump was known to have been overtly involved in two other incidents as far as Ukrainian scandal was concerned: on May 23, 2019, he told U.S. officials at a Oval Office meeting to coordinate Ukraine policy with his personal attorney, Rudy Giuliani; and now infamous July 25, 2019, phone call between Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelensky. William Taylor added that Holmes had pressed Gordon Sondland in the aftermath of phone call to Donald Trump and Sondland reportedly said in response that the president "cares more about the investigations into Biden, which Giuliani was pressing for".
William Taylor testified further that he had thought that it was a "crazy" idea to freeze $391 million in military aid to Ukraine for a probe into a domestic political rival. Taylor expressed concern over Rudy Giuliani's involvement in shaping Ukraine policy.
Republicans will have hard time to tarnish the credibility of David Holmes as he had been a key independent-minded diplomat who is not afraid of butting heads with either Democrats or Republicans. David Holmes has dissented against the then-President Barack Obama's Afghanistan policy and received the prestigious William R. Rivkin Award, a fete that recognizes midlevel foreign service professionals for dissenting the administration's foreign policy to bolster national interest, in 2014. David Holmes will appear behind closed doors on November 15, 2019 and testify to House impeachment investigators.
George Kent, on his part, stuck to his narrative that Trump's Ukraine policy was centered around "investigations, Biden, Clinton".
Republicans established a firewall around Donald Trump and demanded whistleblower's testimony. Republican lawmakers also expressed frustration over the partisan nature of the hearing.
A Second U.S. Diplomat Overhears Phone Call between Sondland and Trump
Apparently a second diplomat had heard the July 26, 2019, phone call that Gordon Sondland, U.S. ambassador to the E.U., had made from a Kyiv restaurant to update President Donald Trump, according to November 14, 2019, reports carried out by The Associated Press and The Washington Post. The second diplomatic staffer, Suriya Jayanti, was seated at the same table. On November 13, 2019, Acting Ambassador to Ukraine William Taylor had testified before the House Intelligence Committee that his aide David Holmes had informed him five days ago (November 8, 2019) about the July 26, 2019, phone call between Trump and Sondland.
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said at a press conference during the day that Ambassador Taylor had "corroborated evidence of bribery" by Trump. Speaker Nancy Pelosi added that Republican pushback against William Taylor and George Kent on the ground that they had second-hand information was an effort based on a "fraudulent proposition".
Trump Slams Diplomat
Real-time as Yovanovitch Testifies
On the second-day of
public hearing before the House Intelligence Committee, President Donald
Trump on November 15, 2019 began his tirade on Twitter against former U.S.
ambassador to Ukraine, Marie Yovanovitch, as she was testifying before
the committee. Yovanovitch testified that she had been shocked to learn that President
Donald Trump and his inner circle was working with corrupt Ukrainian
officials to fire her. Referring to president's real-time tweet, Marie
Yovanovitch called it "very intimidating". President Trump's
tweet blast against Marie Yovanovitch included baseless allegations such as
wherever she had gone, things "turned bad", ticking off Somalia for
example.
Meanwhile, Republicans
continued to cast aspersion on the Democrats-led impeachment hearings, with
House Intel committee's ranking Republican, Rep. Devin Nunes, accusing
Democrats of "trying to overthrow a president". As the hearing began
on November 15, 2019, White House released the transcript of an April
21, 2019, phone call between Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelenskiy,
first call between the two, in which Trump had assured the latter of any help
to root out corruption. The House GOP Counsel Stephen Castor probed Marie
Yovanovitch about corruption in Ukraine and her successor, William Taylor,
whom Yovanovitch had lauded profusely. Trump labeled Marie Yovanovitch,
William Taylor and George Kent as "Never Trumpers" which they had
denied. Marie Yovanovitch, who was the U.S. ambassador to Ukraine from August
2016 to May 2019, testified that she believed the Ukraine's Chief
Prosecutor Yuri Lutshenko having played a role behind her ouster. Yuri
Lutshenko is reported to have dished out false narrative about Marie
Yovanovitch giving a "No Prosecution" list to him, which never had
happened.
Sessions Considered as Ambassador to Ukraine
In the aftermath of his defeat in November 2018 midterm election in a North Dallas House district, Former Rules Committee Chairman Pete Sessions was considered as one of the candidates for ambassadorship to Ukraine, according to a November 15, 2019, Daily Beasts report. Two of Rudy Giuliani's foreign-born associates who had been arrested at the Dulles International Airport in October 2019 had committed either in May or June 2019 to raise $20,000 for Pete Sessions campaign in the upcoming midterm election.
Holmes Testifies Behind Closed Doors
Appearing before the House impeachment investigators, David Holmes told them on November 15, 2019 that he had been present during lunch on July 26, 2019 at a Kyiv restaurant when U.S. Ambassador to E.U Gordon Sondland had called President Donald Trump to give update. According to The Washington Post, Holmes said that Trump had been talking so loudly that he had clearly heard the president asking Sondland whether Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy would "do the investigation" into Biden family and whether Ukraine had meddled into 2016 U.S. Presidential Election. Gordon Sondland responded, according to The Washington Post based on Holmes' testimony, Zelenskiy would "so anything you ask him to".
Vindman Testifies that Trump Call Was "Improper"
Appearing before the House Intel Committee for the public hearing on November 19, 2019, Lt. Gen. Alexander Vindman said that he had absolutely no hesitation over reporting President Trump's July 25, 2019, conversation with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to the lead counsel of National Security Counsel, John Eisenberg. Before July 25, 2019, call between Donald Trump and Volodomyr Zelenskiy, Lt. Gen. Vindman added, he had concern over a July 10, 2019, White House meeting with Ukrainian officials in which U.S. ambassador to the E.U., Gordon Sondland, had pressed for investigations into Biden family and whether Kyiv had interfered into the 2016 U.S. presidential election in exchange for a future Trump-Zelenskiy in-person meeting. Alongside Lt. Gen. Alexander Vindman, an aide to Vice President Mike Pence's office, Jennifer Williams, testified that she was also not comfortable with what she had heard in the conversation between Trump and Zelensky. Republicans tried to put doubt on the testimony of Vindman, who appeared in the House hearing with his military uniform and purple heart, received for his service in Iraq, and other badges, Vindman pushed back, once prodding the ranking Republican in the committee Devin Nunes to address him by his military title.
Later on November 19, 2019, the former special envoy for Ukraine, Kurt Volker, and another National Security Council official, Tim Morrison, testified before the House Intel committee. Kurt Volker stated that he had not been involved in many of the meetings, but rejected president's personal attorney Rudy Giuliani's so called "conspiracy theory" that any American had tried to stop a Ukrainian probe into former Vice President Joe Biden's son, Hunter. Tim Morrison, on his part, told the lawmakers that he was always worried that if the content of the July 25, 2019, phone call between Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelensky made in into public, that would set an alarm, and added "my fears have been realized".
On November 20, 2019, the U.S. ambassador to E.U. Gordon Sondland will appear before the committee.
Sondland Gives more Ammunition to Democrats
U.S. Ambassador to E.U Gordon Sondland testified on November 20, 2019 before the House Intelligence Committee that "everyone was in the loop" in pressuring Ukraine to open an investigation into president's political opponent and whether Ukraine had interfered in the 2016 U.S. Presidential election, a conspiracy theory floated by Russia and continued to be propagated by the the right-wing media outlets in this country. Gordon Sondland--who had self-described himself one of "three amigos", with the other two were Energy Secretary Rick Perry and Kurt Volker, a former special envoy for Ukraine, known for running the Ukraine affair informally in consultation with President Trump's personal attorney Rudy Giuliani--also acknowledged in the public hearing during the day which he had omitted behind-the-closed doors hearings and later David Holmes had testified what he had heard a phone conversation between Sondland and Trump while they were eating at a restaurant in Kyiv.
In a separate testimony later in the day, Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense Laura Cooper said on November 20, 2019 that her staff had recently informed her that one of the Ukrainian Embassy staff members probed via e-mail on July 25, 2019 what had happened to $391 million in military aid, implying Kyiv might have known that the military aid had been held up for some reasons. That contradicts a favored GOP defense that quid pro quo didn't happen as Kyiv had no knowledge that the military aid had been held up. Ms. Cooper didn't share this information during her closed-door testimony.
Two OMB Officials Resign after Voicing Concern over Aid Hold-up
A Closed-door November 16, 2019, testimony by one of the career officials at the Office of Management and Budget before the House impeachment investigators exposed more dirt in Ukrainian scandal. House investigators made Mark Sandy's testimony public on November 26, 2019. Without naming them, Sandy informed the investigators that one of them had worked in the legal division and gave a "dissenting opinion" to oppose the hold-up as it would be contrary to the spirit of the Impoundment Control Act, a law designed to restrict executive branch's leeway on the spending approved by the Congress. Trump administration put a hold on about $400 million in military aid already approved by Congress to press for an obvious quid pro quo. The other person resigned in September 2019, and was frustrated over the aid hold-up.
The transcript of November 16, 2019, testimony by Mark Sandy, OMB deputy associate director for national security programs, was made public on the same day as House Budget Committee led by John Yarmuth, D-KY, issued a report that blasted the "pattern of abuse" by OMB.
Giuliani Thought Playing Double with Ukraine Mission
The Washington Post and The New York Daily News reported on November 27, 2019 the President Donald Trump's personal attorney, Rudy Giuliani, tried to cash in his connection with the president of the United States to enrich his law firm. He was in talks with the then-prosecutor, Yuri Lutsenko, to legally represent him to release the Ukrainian assets frozen in the United States. Rudy Giuliani met with Lutsenko at New York City in January 2019, and again, at Warsaw in February 2019. In turn, Giuliani pressed his potential client, Yuri Lutsenko, to launch an investigation into Hunter Biden and Burisma, the company whose board son of former vice present had sat, thus helping his another top client, President Donald Trump, politically. Robert Costello, who represents Rudy Giuliani in federal investigation in New York, has said that his client has declined as the contract doesn't look a good-faith deal.
Yuri Lutsenko, who had served till August 2019, was critical of former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine, Marie Yovanovitch, and advocated openly for Yovanovitch's removal. In March 2019, Yuri Lutsenko gave an interview to a conservative columnist, John Solomon, making false accusation against Marie Yovanovitch, then the U.S. ambassador to Ukraine, that she had been hindering the corruption investigation.
Republicans, Democrats Release Their Separate Reports
After weeks of high political drama, heated testimonies and personal finger-pointing, lawmakers from each party issued their respective reports, reflecting the parties' hardening positions. First, it was a 123-page GOP report released on December 2, 2019 that refuted the premise that President Trump had violated any law and accused the Democrats of "settling the political scores and re-litigating election results with which they disagreed".
The 300-page Democratic report, issued on December 3, 2019, was much more comprehensive and thorough and pointed to Trump's actions--holding off $400 million in military aid until Kyiv announced an inquiry into the president's political opponent and investigate into conspiracy theory that Ukraine--not Russia--had meddled in 2016 U.S. election--that had "compromised national security to advance his personal political interest". A joint statement attributed to Chairmen Adam Schiff of the House Intelligence Committee, Carolyn Maloney of the House Oversight and Reform Committee and Eliot Engel of the House Foreign Affairs Committee issued accompanying the report blasted President Donald Trump for damaging "our national security", undermining the "integrity of the next election" and violating the "oath of office".
An Unchartered Territory in Impeachment Hearing Opens in Judiciary Committee
After House Intel committee democrats have sent their 300-page report, detailing gross abuse of power and numerous instances of obstruction of Congress, House Judiciary Committee on December 4, 2019 held its first hearing with four constitutional scholars--three called by Democrats and one called by the Republicans--with the committee chairman, Rep. Jerrold Nadler, rebuking President Trump for enlisting "a foreign government to intervene in our elections". Three constitutional scholars who testified against Trump's tactics were Noah Feldman, Pamela Karlan and Michael Gerhardt. Jonathan Turley has refuted the premise that Trump's action amounts to impeachable offense. Partisan rancor got into high decibel, with the First Lady Melania Trump blasting Stanford Professor Pamela Karlan's comment that "while the president can name his son Barron, he can't make him a baron".
Giuliani Meets a Pro-Putin Ukrainian Lawmaker to Call Attention to Bidens
President Donald Trump's personal lawyer, Rudy Giuliani, while House is at the cusp of impeaching Trump as the third sitting president, is trying to fish in the muddy water as he has been in a personal trip to Europe and Ukraine. On December 5, 2019, Giuliani met a pro-Moscow lawmaker, Andriy Derkach, at Kyiv. Derkach and another Ukrainian lawmaker, Oleksandr Dubinsky called a press conference last month at Kyiv to announce that they would seek to form an investigative committee to probe Hunter Biden and Burisma. However, Andriy Derkach and Oleksandr Dubinsky are facing difficulty to get but-in from 150 Ukrainian parliamentary members, a threshold to form an investigative committee. Andriy Derkach was a member of pro-Russian political party, but is now an independent parliamentarian. Andriy Derkach is the son of a former KGB officer and former intel head of Ukraine, and has himself graduated from Dzerzhinsky Higher School of the KGB in Moscow.
More than 500 Sign a Joint Petition Backing Trump Impeachment
A bipartisan group of more than 500 legal scholars and academicians signed on to an open letter sponsored by Protect Democracy justifying the "remedy of impeachment in the Constitution" for President Donald Trump's "type of threat to our democracy", according to The Washington Post on December 6, 2019. However, impeachment does not equate to crime, and thereby, the signees have not taken any stand whether Trump has "committed any crime". 's article was published a day after December 5, 2019, instructions from the House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to committee chairmen to draft articles of impeachment against Donald Trump.
Pelosi Instructs to Draft Articles of Impeachment
Speaker Nancy Pelosi on December 9, 2019 met with key committee chairmen and instructed them to draft two articles of impeachment against Donald Trump. The articles of impeachment are abuse of power and obstruction of Congress.
Articles of Impeachment against Trump Unveiled
In a historic step and searing rebuke to President Donald Trump, Speaker Nancy Pelosi--surrounded by Judiciary Committee Chairman Jerrold Nadler, Intelligence Committee Chairman Adam Schiff, Ways and Means Committee Chairman Richard Neal and Financial Committee Chair Maxine Waters--on December 10, 2019 unveiled two articles of impeachment against the president. The articles are abuse of power to suspend Congress-approved military aid to Ukraine until the former Soviet Republic's new president opened an inquiry into the president's political opponent and obstructing Congress from carrying out its investigation into the abuse. Intelligence Committee Chairman Adam Schiff was blunt: "the evidence of the president's misconduct is overwhelming and uncontested". On Twitter, President Donald Trump defended himself, proclaiming that he did "NOTHING wrong", and later proceeded to hold a campaign rally at Hershey, PA. The Judiciary Committee will debate the impeachment resolution on December 11, 2019 and will vote on December 12, 2019. The impeachment resolution is emphatic in denouncing the conduct of Trump by labeling him "a threat to Constitution" because he "has acted in a manner grossly incompatible with self-governance and the rule of law".
House Judiciary Chair Pulls Surprises; Delays the Vote; House Panel Impeaches Trump
In hours of high drama and theatrics, House Judiciary Committee Chairman Jerrold Nadler pulled surprise late night on December 12, 2019 by not holding the vote at the panel, instead pushing it to Friday morning to get a much broader audience of TV viewers, but surely angering the Republicans. On December 13, 2019, House Judiciary Committee voted along the party line to impeach President Donald Trump on two counts: abuse of power and obstruction of Congress. Now, the House Resolution 755--that reads "Impeaching Donald John Trump, President of the United States, for high crimes and misdemeanor"--will be voted by full House next week.
If the full House impeaches the president, Donald Trump will become only the third U.S. President to be impeached. President Andrew Johnson was impeached in 1868 and President Bill Clinton was impeached in 1998. Both of them had been subsequently acquitted by the Senate. President Richard Nixon resigned in 1974 before the full House could vote to impeach him in Watergate Scandal.
Trump Slams Democrats on the Eve of Near-Certain Impeachment
As the impeachment vote on the House floor neared, an irate Donald Trump unloaded on Democrats in twitter on December 17, 2019, saying that they were going through "Trump Derangement Syndrome" and the ones who were bringing disrespect to the Republic.
Trump Becomes the Third President to be Impeached
Donald Trump on December 18, 2019 became only the third U.S. President to be impeached as the House of Representatives voted along the party line to impeach the president on two counts of abuse of power and obstruction of Congress. House members voted 230-197 to impeach Trump on abuse of power, while the impeachment vote for obstruction of Congress tallied 229-198. Two Democrats broke ranks after a marathon of 10-hour debate in which Democrats portrayed a president unhinged so much that he would stop no less than compromising the U.S. national security interest for his own personal political gain. Republicans slammed the impeachment as an endeavor to oust a president whom Democrats harbored absolute loathe for. New Jersey's Rep. Jeff Van Drew, who had earlier met with Trump and decided to switch the party, and Minnesota's Collin Peterson joined all Republican members of the House to vote against both impeachment counts. Maine's Jared Golden voted to impeach Trump on abuse of power count, but against the impeachment on obstruction of Congress. Hawaii Rep. Tulsi Gabbard voted "present". Now, the trial moves to Senate.
Pelosi to Hold off Transmitting the Articles of Impeachment to Senate
A day after House of Representatives impeached Donald Trump on two counts of abuse of power and obstruction of Congress, Speaker Nancy Pelosi on December 19, 2019 said that she had to know the Senate trial rules to be set by the Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell before she transmitted the articles to Senate. Congress has left the town during the day for two-week Holiday break, and will resume on January 7, 2020.
House Hands over Impeachment Articles to Senate
In a solemn procession, House Managers on January 15, 2020 walked across the Capitol Rotunda and handed over the impeachment articles to Senate. The impeachment trial will be led from the Democratic side by seven House managers: Adam Schiff, Jerrold Nadler, Jason Crow, Zoe Lofgren, Sylvia Garcia, Hakeem Jeffries, and Val Demings.
Chief Justice Roberts Officiates Oath to Senators
As the Senate trial in President Donald Trump's impeachment began on January 16, 2020, Chief Justice John Roberts administered the oath to Senators. Chief justice John Roberts will preside the impeachment trial and Senators will work as part of equivalent to jurors. Before that, Chief Justice Roberts himself was administered the oath by one of the senior-most Senators, Senate Pro Tempore, Chuck Grassley.
GAO: Trump Administration Violated Law
The day the Trump impeachment trial began in Senate an independent oversight agency issued a scathing report on Trump administration's hold on about $400 million in military aid to Ukraine. The January 16, 2020, Governmental Accountability Office report pointed out clear violation of Impoundment Control Act when Office of Management and Budget had held up military aid to Ukraine for "policy reasons" instead of technical budgetary need. The White House rejected the GAO finding, and Russell Vought, head of OMB, said that the White House had "complied with the law at every step".
Ukraine Launches Investigation into Surveillance Allegation Targeting Yovanovitch
Two days after Democratic lawmakers made public the text messages of Lev Parnas, one of Rudy Giuliani's associates, showing former U.S. ambassador to Kyiv, Marie Yovanovitch, under surveillance while stationed in Ukraine, authorities in Ukraine on January 16, 2020 launched an investigation to uncover the truth.
Trump Bolsters His Defense Team
President Donald Trump on January 17, 2020 hired former Whitewater Special Counsel Kenneth Starr as his defense lawyer. Starr's addition brings new luminary to the defense team that includes White House Counsel Pat Cipollone and Trump's personal lawyer, Jay Sekulow. In addition to Kenneth Starr, Trump padded up his team with another high-profile, TV-focused lawyer, Alan Dershowitz.
Perry's Prior Knowledge of Quid Pro Quo Detailed by Giuliani Associate
Indicted associate of President Donald Trump's personal lawyer Rudy Giuliani, Lev Parnas, told MSNBC's Rachel Maddow this week, that Rick Perry knew why the withholding of U.S. military aid to Ukraine had happened despite his earlier denial to that effect, according to The Dallas Morning News' January 18, 2020, edition.
Legal Briefs Filed by Democratic Managers
As the Senate trial's formal session is to begin on January 22, 2020, House managers filed 111-page legal brief impugning the president for abusing his official power for personal and political gain.
Impeachment Plan Rules Package Submitted by Republicans
Republican majority on January 20, 2020 submitted a "rules package" that foresaw a quick resolution and a likely acquittal of president. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer called the "rules package" a "national disgrace" as it would not include any additional document or witness.
Democrats Lay out Charges against Trump
Democratic House managers led by Adam Schiff rolled out a volley of pointers on the first day of impeachment trial's formal presentation session on January 22, 2020, holding President Trump responsible for "corruptly" abusing his office to "seek the help of a foreign power" against his domestic political rival. President Donald Trump's one of the star lawyers, Alan Dershowitz, countered, citing the same logic presented more than 150 years ago during President Andrew Johnson's impeachment trial that inappropriateness in office didn't amount to "criminal-like conduct".
Democrats Builds their Case before Senators
On the second day of impeachment trial's formal hearing on January 23, 2020, Democratic House managers laid our case-by-case president's trail of abusive behaviors in the July 25, 2019, ill-fated call. House Judiciary Committee Chairman Jerrold Nadler called Trump's action "abuse, betrayal and corruption". Another House manager Sylvia Garcia piled on, saying president's action to goad Kyiv to launch an investigation into political rival was counter to the oath of high office as the allegation against Joe Biden were "completely groundless".
Democrats Wrap up their Arguments with a Scathing Attack on Trump's Credibility
Democratic House managers on January 24, 2020 concluded their three-day argument with a case focused on presidential action that was in the words of Adam Schiff "grossly incompatible with self-governance and rule of law".
Trump Lawyers Defend President
After 36 hours of Democratic House Managers' excoriating details that laid out a case of how President Donald Trump had abused his office to further his political gain, president's lawyers stuck to the well-versed theme that the whole impeachment drive had stemmed from a political desire to nullify the mandate of electorate in 2016. Jay Sekulow defended President Trump on January 25, 2020, saying that the president had done nothing wrong. Trump was concerned about corruption in Ukraine, according to Sekulow. Another White House lawyer Michael Purpura went a step further, justifying the action of president as "acting in our national interest".
Trump Lawyers Focus on Biden and His Son
Tossing out any doubt stemming from the upcoming book of John Bolton that shed a light on President Donald Trump's possible blackmailing of the Ukraine's new president to damage his political rival, Trump's lawyers on January 27, 2020 focused on Biden's and his son's potential misdeeds. Kenneth Starr called the House impeachment a product of a "runaway House".
Senate Votes against Calling Witnesses
After two days (January 27-28, 2020) of defense of President Donald Trump's lawyers followed by questions-and-answer session officiated by the Supreme Court Chief Justice John Roberts in the next three days (January 29-31, 2020), Senate held a vote on whether to call additional witnesses. The January 31, 2020, vote was 51 against calling additional witnesses, including Former National Security Adviser John Bolton, and 49 in favor of calling them. Two Republicans--Sen. Mitt Romney and Sen. Susan Collins--joined all 47 Democratic Senators to call additional witnesses.
Trump Acquitted
The historic impeachment trial against Donald Trump on February 5, 2020 ended on an expected note as Senate voted to acquit the president on two impeachment counts. Republican Senator Mitt Romney voted to hold the president guilty on one count, abuse of power. President Donald Trump took immediately to twitter to proclaim victory. Senate acquitted President Trump on abuse of power charge by 52-to-48 vote and obstruction of Congress charge by 53-to-47 votes. By voting to convict Trump on abuse of power count, Senator Mitt Romney became the first U.S. Senator in the American history to convict a president from the same political party.
Trump Unloads on Foes
Emboldened by acquittal, President Donald Trump on February 6, 2020 heralded insults and invectives against his foes in an unprecedented manner.
Vindman Escorted out of White House, Sondland Fired
President Donald Trump didn't waste any time to mete out revenge to the people he thought worked against his political interest, including Lt. Gen. Alexander Vindman, who had testified against Trump before the House lawmakers during impeachment hearings. Lt. Gen. Alexander Vindman was escorted out of the White House on February 7, 2020. Vindman had been reassigned to another job in Pentagon. His twin brother, Yevgeny, was asked too to leave his job as a White House lawyer. On the same day, Trump fired his ambassador to the European Union, Gordon Sondland, who had testified too at a House hearing.
Trump Fires Intel IG
As the nation is facing coronavirus pandemic, President Donald Trump has gone ahead with settling score for his impeachment process, and fired the Inspector-General Michael Atkinson, who had received the anonymous complaint about Trump that had led to his House impeachment. President Trump sent letters to Intel committees of House and Senate to this effect on late April 3, 2020. Atkinson informed lawmakers that he had thought the complaint that had led to Trump's impeachment was "urgent" and "credible".
Trump's Treasury Department Sanctions a Giuliani-linked Ukrainian Lawmaker
In a stiff rub on the nose of president's personal lawyer, Rudy Giuliani, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin on September 10, 2020 sanctioned a controversial Ukrainian lawmaker, Andriy Derkach, whom Rudy Giuliani had met to glean hurtful information about Democratic nominee Joe Biden and promoted in his podcast. In issuing the sanction, Mnuchin called Andriy Derkach as a Russian agent and accused him of "disinformation campaigns" and "interference" in the American election system. Reacting to September 10, 2020, sanctions by Treasury Department, U.S. House Intelligence Committee Chairman Adam Schiff took a veiled swipe at Rudy Giuliani, saying that Americans should desist promoting others' "false narratives".
The September 10, 2020, sanctions against Andriy Derkach happened on the same day when Microsoft issued a scathing report that the same military intel unit of Russia, GRU, that had hacked and pilfered information from Hillary Clinton campaign in 2016 was acting in the same virulent manner this election year too.
Treasury Department Sanctions Seven Associates of a Ukrainian Contact of Giuliani
A contact of President Donald Trump's personal lawyer Rudy Giuliani had seven of his associates put in the U.S. sanctions list on January 11, 2021. The U.S. Treaury Department accused all seven associates of Andriy Derkach, who was accused of being a Russian spy, of intervening in the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election, including issuing a doctored tape of Joe Biden. Andriy Derkach himself was sanctioned by the U.S. Treaury Department on September 10, 2020.
Judge Orders Release of Trump's First Impeachment Trial-related Memo
In a searing rebuke to Trump-era Justice Department, a federal judge on May 4, 2021 ordered release of a memo written by the Justice Department officials for the then-Attorney-General Bill Barr before he determined that President Donald Trump had not committed any obstruction of justice. A government transparency group, Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington, demanded to see the March 24, 2019, memorandum written by the officials of the department's Office of Legal Counsel for A.G. William Barr. But, Trump's Justice Department denied the request on the ground of attorney-client privilege. The group filed a lawsuit. U.S. District Judge Amy Berman Jackson on May 4, 2021 rejected the DOJ argument, opining that the memo contained "strategic, as opposed to legal advice".
Vindman Sues Trump Jr., Several Aides of the Former President
Alexander Vindman, a retired Army Lieutenant Colonel and former White House national
security aide, on February 2, 2022 filed a lawsuit against Donald
Trump Jr., Rudy Giuliani; Dan Scavino, a former White House deputy chief of
staff; and Julia Hahn, a former White House deputy communications
director, accusing them of intimidating and retaliating as he had testified
against the president in Trump’s first impeachment trial. The 73-page
complaint accuses the defendants of violating the Ku Klux Klan Act of 1871,
which makes it unlawful to conspire to interfere with a federal official’s ability
to carry out the duties of their office or to interfere with any witness’
ability to testify.
***************************** TRUMP IMPEACHMENT INQUIRY ******************
Agreement Signed for Local Polls in the Secessionist East
An international agreement was signed by the governments of Volodymyr Zelensky and Vladimir Putin along with Germany and France at Minsk on October 1, 2019 to hold local polls in Eastern Ukraine to bring to an end to a civil conflict that had killed more than 13,000 people since 2014. Many in Ukraine see the agreement signed by Volodymyr Zelenskiy as an abject surrender to Russia. The agreement also calls for troops pullout by both sides.
Parties Meet on Troops Pullout, but Fail to Agree on a Solution
Negotiators from Russia and Ukraine, and representatives of Russia-backed rebels met at Minsk on October 15, 2019 to discuss on the troops pullout as called for by the October 1, 2019, agreement. However, negotiation bogged down without any solution.
Macron Hosts Putin-Zelensky Meet to Renew Truce
French President Emmanuel Macron stepped in the shoes of international mediator on December 9, 2019 to host a summit at Paris between Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Ukrainian counterpart, Volodymyr Zelensky, in a bid to renew a fragile cease-fire that had put stop to a bloody battle in Donbass region in Ukraine and killed more than 13,000 people. Presidents of Russia and Ukraine also decided to work out a prisoner swap and negotiate on holding elections in the region.
Premier's Badmouthing against President Caught on Tape; President Rejects Resignation
As if controversy and theatrics don't want to leave Ukraine, earlier this week, an audio recording made its way to public in which Ukraine's prime minister was heard talking negatively about President Volodymyr Zelenskiy. Prime Minister Oleksiy Honcharuk offered to resign after surfacing of the audio of the premier reportedly calling out the president for apparent ignorance about economics and national currency. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy on January 17, 2020 rejected the resignation offer and asked Oleksiy Honcharuk to continue as prime minister.
Premier Axed
Ukrainian Prime Minister Oleksiy Honcharuk was forced to resign on March 4, 2020, and lawmakers--most of them are members of President Volodymyr Zelenskiy's ruling Servant of People party--accepted the resignation letter. Lawmakers later elevated the deputy premier, Denys Shmygal, to premiership.
Cease-fire to Begin
Ukrainian government and Russia-backed rebel forces are to begin observing a cease-fire in Eastern Ukraine effective midnight July 27, 2020 (U.S. time July 26). Preparations are afoot as of July 26, 2020 (local time) to instruct fighters on the both sides not to open fire and pull back to their respective sides of control. The final touches to this latest cease-fire were given on July 22, 2020. A telephone conversation between Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Ukrainian counterpart, Volodomyr Zelensky, espoused optimism that this time the cease-fire would hold strong and other features of the 2015 Minsk Agreement would be followed up soon. Although the 2015 Minsk Agreement stopped the civil conflict between Ukrainian forces and Russia-backed rebels in the Donbass Region, a conflict that had killed as of today more than 14,000 people, both sides continued their on- and off-fighting on regular basis and things looked like the Minsk Agreement would crumble this December 2019 when two of the agreement's parties, France and Germany, intervened and French President Emmanuel Macron convened a summit of four nations--France, Germany, Ukraine and Russia--in December 2019, and refocused on implementation of 2015 Minsk Agreement. The July 27, 2020, cease-fire is the outcome of the French-led effort as the new cease-fire has been crafted on July 22, 2020 by Tripartite Contact Group that consists of Ukraine, Russia and the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE).
Russian Troops Build-up Along Western Borders Worries Ukraine, West
In recent weeks, Russia has carried out massive deployment of troops along the borders with Ukraine, elevating tension between the neighboring countries to the highest level since a debilitating conflict had erupted in 2014 and a tenuous cease-fire was holding on a shakier ground. U.S., Germany, France and EU all expressed strong reservations over Russia's troops deployment along its western border and Kremlin's enhanced maritime military activities in the Black Sea off Crimean Peninsula. Last week, Ukraine protested Russian move to block off parts of Black Sea to international navy ships and state vessels until November 2021. U.S. State department Spokesman Ned Price condemned Russian move on April 19, 2021 as "another unprovoked escalation". Russia responded on April 20, 2021 that the restrictions were in line with international agreements. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Rybakov further added that the commercial shipping was not restricted.
This week, Russia is conducting a major military drill in the Black Sea, involving 20 warships and several aircraft. Separately, Russia on April 20, 2021 imposed flight restrictions near Crimean airspace.
U.S. Pressures Russia over Troops Build-up
Nearly a week after CIA Director William Burns led a delegation to Moscow for a series of high-level meetings, including a session with Russian President Vladimir Putin, one of the delegation members, Karen Donfried, assistant secretary of state for Europe and Eurasia, told The Associated Press on November 10, 2021 that Russia would face unknown consequences if Kremlin did not reverse massing of the troops along the Ukrainian borders. Donfried added that Burns was very effective in sending the "messages that he thought it was appropriate to send". Donfried later flew to Kyiv to apprise the Ukrainian officials of their conversation with Kremlin. Karen Donfried's public warning to Kremlin comes on the heels of the day's meeting between Secretary of State Anthony Blinken and his Ukrainian counterpart at Washington.
Biden,
Putin to Hold Virtual Summit over Ukraine
Kremlin
and White House announced on December 4, 2021 that President Joe
Biden and President Vladimir Putin would hold a virtual meeting on December
7, 2021. Their main topic of discussion will be Putin’s serious concern
stemming from a possible eastward expansion of NATO to incorporate Ukraine into
the western military alliance and Biden administration’s strong stand against a
massive Russian troops build-up along the Ukraine-Russia borders. U.S.
intelligence agencies warned in recent days that Russia had massed at least 70,000
troops along the border and a Russian incursion in early 2022 could not be
ruled out. Responding to the U.S. intelligence reports, published by many
newspapers, President Biden told reporters on December 3, 2021 that U.S.
would take the “most comprehensive and meaningful set of initiatives to make it
very, very difficult for Mr. Putin to go ahead and do what people are worried
that he may do”. Biden also stated his clear stand over future eastward expansion
of NATO, saying that he would defy any “red line” on the expansion issue.
In
recent days, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky raised the specter
of Russian invasion and alleged last week that Kremlin was trying to
orchestrate a coup to oust him from power by seeking help, so far unsuccessfully,
from the wealthiest man in Ukraine, Rinat Akhmetov. Both Akhmetov and
Kremlin denied knowledge of existence of such a coup plot.
Putin Warned over Ukraine Invasion
U.S.
and Russia held a key virtual summit on December 7, 2021 over the
deteriorating security situation along the Russia-Ukraine border and Kremlin’s
insistence that NATO don’t expand its alliance to include Ukraine. President
Joe Biden and his Russian counterpart, President Vladimir Putin, held the two-hour
talks, with Biden sitting at the White House’s Situation Room and Putin
from his residence in Sochi. The December 7, 2021, summit became
all the more important as it came days after the last week’s U.S. intelligence
assessment that Kremlin was preparing for invasion of Ukraine in early 2022.
Ukrainians have become nervous in recent days, and they publicly expressed
their concern over the Russian troops build-up, involving more than 90,000 soldiers,
along various parts of their common borders as well as in Crimea. National
Security Adviser Jake Sullivan later told the reporters that President
Biden had communicated very clearly that, if Russia went ahead with its
[invasion] plan, Washington, along with its European allies, would impose “strong
economic measures” against Russia. Putin came to the virtual summit with his
own political laundry list, seeking guarantees that NATO would refrain from
expanding its orbit to Ukraine. Biden administration already expressed that the
NATO expansion issue would be a non-starter. The December 7, 2021, summit,
though, didn’t yield any concrete outcome, but it gave opportunities to Biden
and Putin to emphasize in pursuing diplomacy and engagement, which itself might
be a positive outcome.
Russia
Warned over Ukraine Invasion in the Second Biden-Putin Phone Call in a Month
Upon
request from Russia, President Joe Biden and his Russian counterpart,
President Vladimir Putin, spoke with each other over phone on December
30, 2021. President Biden urged Putin to “de-escalate tensions with Ukraine”,
according to White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki. President Joe
Biden has also “made clear that the United States and its allies and partners
will respond decisively if Russia further invades Ukraine”. The narrative from
Kremlin, though, is slightly different of what has been provided by Jen
Psaki. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s foreign affairs adviser, Yuri
Ushakov, briefing the correspondents at Moscow after the Biden-Putin phone
call, said that Putin had responded to Biden’s threat of grave consequences if
Russia invaded Ukraine by retorting that Washington’s action would be “a
mistake that our ancestors would see as a grave error”. The December 30,
2021, Biden-Putin phone call came more than three weeks after a similar
call between the leaders on December 7, 2021 and 10 days before the
Russian and U.S. officials to meet at Geneva to discuss a draft submitted by
Kremlin calling for NATO, among other demands, not to expand the bloc to grant
membership to Ukraine or any other former Soviet Republic as well as roll back
military deployments in Eastern and Central Europe. The January 9-10, 2022, Geneva
meeting between Russian and U.S. officials will be followed by January
12, 2022, meeting of the Russia-NATO Council and negotiation at the Organization
for Security and Co-operation in Europe on January 13, 2022 in
Vienna.
Biden
to Talk to Ukraine’s President
Confirming
America’s and NATO’s continuing support for Ukraine’s sovereignty and
territorial integrity, Washington and Kyiv announced on December 31,
2021 that President Joe Biden would hold telephone talks with Ukrainian
President Volodomyr Zelensky on January 2, 2022.
Nationalists
Hold Torch Rally for Pro-Nazi Leader a Day Before Bilateral Phone Summit with
the U.S.
Ukraine’s
nationalists on January 1, 2022 held a torch rally at Kyiv to
mark the birthday of pro-Nazi leader Stepan Bandera, who had led a
nationalist party that had fought alongside Nazi army during World War II. The
rally was held a day before a crucial meeting over phone between President
Joe Biden and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.
U.S., Germany Warn Russia over any Planned Incursion of Ukraine
Following a series of high-level meetings—including a phone call between
President Joe Biden and his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, last
week, a similar phone conversation between Biden and Ukrainian President
Volodymyr Zelensky on January 2, 2022, and Biden’s national security
adviser, Jake Sullivan, holding a conference call with his Nordic
counterparts on January 4, 2022—U.S. Secretary of State Anthony
Blinken on January 5, 2022 met with German Foreign Minister Annalena
Baerbock at Washington to discuss thoroughly about any possible Russian
adventure in Ukraine and, if that happened, what should be the unified response
by the U.S. and Europe. Blinken said, afterward, that Russia’s massing of
troops along the Ukrainian border posed an “immediate and urgent challenge” to
European security. Blinken told journalists that both U.S. and Germany would
impose a high consequence on Russia if Kremlin carried out the misadventure of
Ukraine’s invasion.
Ukraine Calls Mass Website Defacements Russia’s “Hybrid War”
After January 14, 2022, mass defacements of websites related to various
government agencies of Ukraine, it was an open secret that Russia, or
operatives from Russia, might have carried out this asymmetric attack. On January
15, 2022, Microsoft said that the attack came from a malware
disguised as a ransomware, and it had detected the malware first on January
13, 2022. On January 14, 2022, most of the Ukrainian government
websites were defaced and laced with a message: “be afraid and expect the
worst”. On January 16, 2022, Ukraine’s Ministry of Digital Development
issued a statement, blaming Russia for the cyberattack and accused Moscow of
continuing “to wage a hybrid war”.
Russia Calls U.S. Allegation of Provoking an Invasion of Ukraine as
“Total Disinformation”
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov on January 17, 2022 dismissed the U.S.
allegation that Russia had deployed operatives in Donbas region to carry
out “false-flag operation” with attack on secessionists to show as if
pro-Ukrainian forces had carried out the attack to provoke invasion as “total
disinformation”. Also, on January 17, 2022, Russia launched a war drill
along the border with Ukraine, involving at least 300 combat vehicles. Lavrov
also stated that Moscow would likely to know this week the U.S. and NATO
response to what Russia had submitted to them in December 2021 seeking “security
guaranty”. NATO dismissed the Russian demand, saying that the western
military alliance’s “open door” policy was nothing new. Meanwhile, Germany
warned Russia against any rash action, including the invasion of Ukraine, as
the country’s foreign minister, Annalena Baerbock, said on January
17, 2022 during a visit to Kyiv that “any further escalation would
carry a very high price for the Russian regime”. Germany also agreed to send
cybersecurity experts to Ukraine to investigate into last week’s malware attack
on Ukrainian government websites, but Baerbock refused to send any weaponry to
Ukraine. German Chancelor Olaf Scholz said on a visit to Spain that “we
expect clear steps from Russia to deescalate the situation".
Russia Transporting Troops to Belarus for War Drills
Escalating tension in the region and projecting a threatening scenario
of invasion into Ukraine, Russian convoy of tanks and troops are heading from
the country’s far east to Belarus. Russian Deputy Defense Minister
Alexander Fomin said on January 18, 2022 that there would be joint
drills with Belarusian army February 10 through February 20, 2022. The
Russian troops redeployment from the country’s Eastern Military District
to Belarus has already begun and will be completed on February 9,
2022 for February 10-20, 2022 Allied Resolve 2022 drills. Alexander
Fomin didn’t specify how many troops would be involved in war drills in
Belarus, but said that an unspecified number of Su-35 fighter jets and air
defense units would be deployed. Meanwhile, Ukrainian Defense Ministry said on
January 18, 2022 that it had received a shipment of anti-tank weaponry from
Britain that would help “strengthen our defense capability”. Canada’s foreign
minister, Melanie Jolly, on a trip to Ukraine criticized the Russian troops
build-up along Ukrainian borders.
U.S., Russia Remain Entrenched as Diplomacy, Tension Increase in the
Region
U.S. and Russia on January 19, 2022 remained entrenched in their
respective positions as U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken had begun
his trip through the heart of the region that would culminate with a meeting
with his Russian counterpart, Sergey Lavrov, on January 21, 2022 at Geneva.
On January 19, 2022, Blinken was in Kyiv, holding a key session
with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Blinken told reporters at
Kyiv that Russia could double the troops on a short notice, implying the
proposed war drills with the Belarussian army that would have a large battalion
of Russian troops on the north of the country. Blinken was adamant on not
giving a written security guaranty to Lavrov at the Geneva session on January
21, 2022. Lavrov’s deputy, Sergei Ryabkov, again called the security
guaranty that would bar Ukraine from the NATO membership and prohibit
western military deployment in the former Soviet Republics and Eastern Europe “non-negotiable”.
Biden administration said earlier that it was providing an additional $200
million in defense aid to Ukraine, and Blinken added on January 19, 2022
that U.S. and allies would support Kyiv in case of a Russian invasion.
Biden Tries to Clarify His “Minor Incursion” Statement as Russia
Announces New Drills
A day before Secretary of State Anthony Blinken is to meet with Russian
Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov at Geneva, President Joe Biden on January
20, 2022 tried to walk back on his infamous “minor incursion” comment that
he had made at a prominent news conference a day ago at the White House to mark
the first anniversary of his still young presidency. On that news conference, President
Joe Biden, going off-script, said that “it’s one thing if there is a minor
incursion and then we end up having a fight about what to do and not do, et cetera”.
That comment raised alarms among allies, including Ukrainian President
Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who had called that “there are no minor incursions and
small nations”. President Joe Biden on January 20, 2022 reiterated
that Moscow “would pay a heavy price” if Putin invaded Ukraine. Meanwhile, U.S.
Secretary of State Anthony Blinken met at Berlin with his
counterparts from the U.K., France and Germany to put up a unified front and
send a unified message to Kremlin that “we are speaking and acting together
with one voice when it comes to Russia”. Secretary Anthony Blinken also
said that Russia’s security guaranty that called for a permanent ban of Ukraine
from getting membership of NATO and prohibition of western military deployment
in Eastern Europe was just a pretext to Russia’s long-held goal of “rejection
of a post-Cold War Europe that is whole and free”.
Meanwhile, Russia on January 20, 2022 announced a major naval
drill, spanning various world theaters from its own territorial waters to
Northeast Atlantic, the Mediterranean and Pacific Ocean. The proposed naval
drills, scheduled to begin this month, will happen “operationally important”
areas and involve at least 140 warships and 60 aircraft.
U.S. Sanctions Four Ukrainian Officials
U.S. Treasury Department on January 20, 2022 announced sanctions
against two Ukrainian members of parliament—Taras Kozak and Oleh Voloshyn—and
two former Ukrainian government officials, Vladimir Sivkovich, a former
deputy secretary for national security and defense councils, and Volodymyr
Olynyk, a former Ukrainian official, respectively. All four participated,
according to the U.S. government, in the disinformation campaign of the Russian
Federal Security Service, or FSB. Olynyk lives in exile in Russia.
Blinken, Lavrov meet at Geneva, No Breakthrough Achieved
In a so called good gesture session that has yielded no breakthroughs, Anthony
Blinken on January 21, 2022 has met with his Russian counterpart, Sergey
Lavrov, at Geneva. The meeting was cordial, but not anything beyond that. Blinken
told Lavrov that U.S. would send written response next week to Russian “security
guaranty” demand that called for (1) permanently ruling out Ukraine’s admission
to NATO, (2) weapons withdrawal from areas bordering Russia, and (3) withdrawal
of western forces from Central and Eastern Europe.
Baltic Nations to Give Weapons to Ukraine
Defense ministers of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania on January 22,
2022 issued a joint statement that the former Soviet Bloc [NATO-allied]
nations would give anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles to Ukraine to bolster
its defense system against any Russian aggression. Estonia will send the Javelin
anti-tank missiles, while Latvia and Lithuania will send the Stinger
anti-aircraft missiles, without divulging the quantity or timeline of the
delivery. U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken on January 22, 2022 on
a twitter handle endorsed the “transfer of the defensive equipment” to Ukraine.
Estonia also sought the clearance from Germany on whether it could also send
Howitzers to Ukraine. Howitzers were made by the then-Soviet Union, and handed over
to then-East Germany.
State Department Asks Non-Diplomatic Staff, Family Members to Leave
U.S. State Department issued an advisory, urging all nonessential
staff and family members at the U.S. Embassy in Kyiv to leave, according
to a January 23, 2022, report by The New York Times. The
newspaper also reported that President Joe Biden was considering whether
to deploy U.S. troops in Eastern Europe and Baltics. The State Department
advisory also asks the U.S. citizens in Ukraine to leave the country or
register with the state department.
Russia Dismisses U.K. Allegation of an Overthrow Plot
Russia on January 23, 2022 dismissed a U.K. intelligence report
published a day ago that Kremlin was planning to overthrow the regime in
Ukraine and install its own government to be led by an ally. The U.K.
Foreign Office on January 22, 2022 named a former Ukrainian lawmaker, Yevheniy
Murayev, as a possible candidate to head the new Russia-backed regime. Yevheniy
Murayev now heads a small political party in Ukraine that has no
representation in parliament. U.K. Foreign Office, based on intelligence
report, on January 22, 2022 added that Russia was considering other
Ukrainian officials for the top job, including Mykola Azarov, a former
premier under Kremlin-allied Former President Viktor Yanukovych, and Andriy
Kluyev, a former chief of staff of Yanukovych. Britain’s Foreign Office
said that some of “these officials have contact with Russian intelligence
officers currently involved in the planning of an attack on Ukraine”. Russian
Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said on January 23, 2022
that the “disinformation spread by the British Foreign Office” was a testament
to the NATO, including “Anglo-Saxons, who are escalating tensions around
Ukraine”, fomenting trouble in the region.
Pentagon Readies 8,500 Troops for Deployment in Europe
At the recommendation of Defense Secretary Llyod Austin and President
Joe Biden’s instruction, Pentagon is preparing to deploy about 8,500
troops from the U.S. to Europe, according to Pentagon spokesperson John
Kirby, who has said on January 24, 2022 that the U.S. will not send
troops to Ukraine. U.S., European Union and NATO are speculating that Russian
invasion of Ukraine may be imminent. On January 24, 2022, President
Joe Biden held an 80-minute video conference with the leaders of Europe. Biden
called the session as very productive, having reached a “total unanimity with
all the European leaders”.
Meanwhile, individual nations in Europe took
measures to bolster security on the eastern fringe of Europe. However, NATO
Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg summed up those individual actions under
the NATO banner in order to present a unified, collective response with a
cohesive and common communication strategy. On January 24, 2022, Stoltenberg
has ticked off what individual nations have vowed earlier in the day: Denmark
is sending a frigate and F-16s to Lithuania as part of what NATO calls as bolstering
“deterrence” in the Baltic Sea region; Spain is sending four fighter jets to
Bulgaria and three ships to Black Sea to join NATO fleet; France stans ready to
send troops to Romania; The Netherlands is ready to send two F-35s to Romania
effective April 2022. Russia dismissed the western talks of Ukraine invasion,
and accused the U.S. and NATO of provoking a crisis-like situation to further
their own geo-political interest.
Foreign ministers of EU
nations on January 24, 2022 met at a key session to take stock of the fast-evolving
scenario. Irish Foreign Minister Simon Coveney raised concern over
Russia’s proposed naval games just 150 miles off its southwestern coast,
calling the action as detrimental to regional security and admonishing Kremlin
that this “isn’t a time to increase military activity and tension in the
context of what’s happening with and in Ukraine”. Russia will be holding war
games in the international waters off the coast of Ireland, but under Dublin’s
economic exclusion zone.
U.S., NATO Reject Russian Demands for Security Guarantees
U.S. and NATO on January 26, 2022 separately responded to Russia’s demand for
security guarantees as the west remained firm on NATO’s open-door policy as
well as the alliance’s right to deploy personnel and hardware in Eastern and
Central Europe. One of the key concessions Kremlin was seeking from NATO was a
pledge that it would never give Ukraine the alliance’s membership.
U.S., Russia Amplify Rhetoric before U.N. Security Council Session
U.S., Ukrainian and Russian officials on January 30, 2022 took their
diplomatic tussle on the Sunday cable shows over mounting tension over Ukraine.
Meanwhile, a clear fissure arose between Washington and Kyiv, and that became
public after a January 27, 2022, phone call between President Joe
Biden and President Volodymyr Zelensky as Ukraine’s president
expressed that he didn’t believe that the Russian invasion was imminent. President
Volodymyr Zelensky also took issues with the United States, Canada,
Australia and the United Kingdom recently scaling back on diplomatic
staff and their families at embassies in Kyiv. Those actions, according
to Zelensky, sent a false alarm to global investment community and raised a
specter of fear among Ukrainian people.
On January 30, 2022, appearing
on the CNN, Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Sen. Bob
Menendez said that the U.S. would impose “mother of all sanctions” if
Russia invaded Ukraine. Sen. Menendez sounded very hawkish, not even ruling out
preemptive sanctions to punish Kremlin for its “false-flag operations”, alleged
cyberattacks in Ukraine and the U.K.-uncovered covert efforts to overthrow the Ukrainian
government.
A Russian official to the U.N. delegation, Nikolai
Patrushev, dismissed any invasion talk, telling Russian news agency Tass
that “we don’t want war and we don’t need it at all”. Ukrainian Foreign
Minister Dmytro Kuleba counter-argued on Twitter that, if “Russian
officials are serious”, then Kremlin should “continue diplomatic engagement and
pull back military forces”. Ukraine’s ambassador to U.S., Oksana Markarova,
said on January 30, 2022 that a potential Russian invasion would be an “attack
on democracy”. Previewing the storm at the U.N. Security Council session,
U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. Linda Thomas-Greenfield said on ABC’s
This Week that “our voices are unified in calling for the Russians to
explain themselves".
U.N. Session on Ukraine Descends into Finger-pointing, Sharp Exchanges
U.N. Security Council on January 31, 2022 held a session on
the crisis that had engulfed the world politics in general and posed a serious
threat to Ukrainian sovereignty in particular. U.S. Ambassador Linda Thomas-Greenfield
called Russia’s massing of more than 100,000 troops along the Ukrainian
border as the “largest mobilization” in Europe in decades and added Russia’s
constant pursuit to find “pretext for attack” by fabricating and “attempting,
without any factual basis, to paint Ukraine and western countries as the
aggressors”. Earlier, taking the mic, Russian Ambassador Vassily Nebenzia
pointed finger at the U.S., accusing Washington of “interfering in his country’s
internal affairs and pursuing the so called “megaphone diplomacy”. Ambassador
Vassily Nebenzia blasted the U.S. for “provoking escalations” and said that
the U.S. had ousted a pro-Kremlin regime in Ukraine in 2014 and brought “nationalists,
radicals, Russophobes and pure Nazis” to power in Kyiv. Ambassador Vassily
Nebenzia was conspicuous by his absence when Ukraine’s ambassador to the
U.N., Sergiy Kyslytsya, took the stage. Ambassador Sergiy Kyslytsya
called the Russian’s strategy as strangulating his nation with a “Kafka trap”. At
the end, there was no resolution or statement that had emerged from this
session. Earlier, Russia tried to block the January 31, 2022, U.N. Security
Council session on Ukraine, but remained unsuccessful as the U.N.
Security Council voted 10-2 to go forward with holding the session with one
vote more than the required nine-member approval threshold. While China and
Russia voted against having the session, India, Gabon and Kenya
abstained from voting.
Putin Regrets U.S. Refusal to Address Russia’s Security Guaranty
Hosting the visiting head of Hungary, a fellow NATO member
nation, Russian President Vladimir Putin on February 1, 2022 told
reporters that the west had ignored the Russia’s security guaranty demand,
making it clear that “it’s not going to be easy” to “find a solution”. During
the day, U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken held a phone call with
his Russian counterpart, Sergey Lavrov, but both had stuck to their
respective positions. Russia on January 31, 2022 sent letters to NATO
and the U.S. over their unified, but separate, responses to Russian security
guaranty demand that had included three pillars of concessions from the west:
(1) proscribing entry of any former Soviet Republic into NATO, (2) withdrawal
of tanks and weapons from the vicinity of the Russian borders, and (3) rolling
back of NATO troops from the Eastern Europe. After NATO and the U.S. rejected
those trio of security guaranty pillars as non-starter, Russia reminded the
west in its January 31, 2022 letter that the Organization for
Security and Cooperation in Europe had endorsed in 1999 and 2000 the “indivisibility
of security”, implying that any eastward expansion of NATO would violate the OSCE
rules.
Biden Orders Troops Deployment in Eastern Europe
President Joe Biden on February 2, 2022 ordered deployment
of about 3,000 troops in Eastern Europe, partly moving troops already
stationed in Europe and sending remaining troops from Fort Bragg. As
part of Biden’s troops deployment order, about 1,000 soldiers from the Army
Stryker Unit currently based in Germany will join 900 U.S. troops in
Romania to bolster the security of Eastern Europe. In addition, about 2,000
troops from Fort Bragg, including Army’s elite 82nd Airborne
Division, will be sent to Poland. President Joe Biden’s February 2, 2022,
troops deployment order upped the ante of the geopolitical situation in the
region.
Pentagon Says Russia Hatching “False-Flag” Operation
Pentagon Spokesman John Kirby told reporters on February 3, 2022 that
Russia had been planning so called “false-flag” operation in which there
would be a self-attack on Russian army, or Russia-allied militants in Donbas
region, that would be used as a “pre-text” to launch invasion of Ukraine. Meanwhile,
a flurry of diplomatic activities are ongoing to defuse the escalating
situation before it reaches a flash-point. During the day:
* French President
Emmanuel Macron and Russian President Vladimir Putin had their third phone call
in a week in what Kremlin said “a detailed dialogue about the situation around
Ukraine”.
* President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey, a fellow NATO member
nation, offered to mediate between Russia and Ukraine.
Russia, China Present United Front, Bask in Olympics Glow
The 2022 Winter Olympics gave Russia’s Vladimir Putin and China’s
Xi Jinping an elevated platform to air their common grievances against the
west, and they took full advantage of it. Hours before the Winter Olympics opened
on February 4, 2022 in Beijing, both leaders met for some candid
talks and reiterated their resolve to strengthen an already firming bilateral
bond between the two adversaries of the West. At the end of the meeting, a
joint statement was issued attributed to the common ground that both nations had
nurtured and valued, including territorial integrity and national sovereignty.
The joint statement issued on February 4, 2022 called the U.S.-led NATO
as “representing a minority on the world stage” that “continue to advocate
unilateral approaches to resolving international problems and resort to
military policy”. The joint statement also opposes “further expansion of NATO”
and calls on the “North Atlantic Alliance to abandon the ideological approaches
of the Cold War”. Both Russia and China expressed their commitment to China’s territorial
integrity, including reiterating Taiwan being part of Mainland. As the western
leaders led a diplomatic boycott of the 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics
over China’s repressive policies in Hong Kong, allegedly running of labor camps
in Xinjiang Province to brainwash tens of thousands of Uighur people
and Beijing’s hawkish policy towards Taiwan, including a threat of force if Taipe
ever took steps to break away, Russian President Vladimir Putin was the
spotlight on the opening session of the Winter Olympics as the most prominent
visiting dignitaory. Putin made it a point that he had also attended the Beijing
Summer Olympics in 2008. Beijing is the only city in the world that has
hosted both Summer and Winter Olympics. Asia Society President Kevin Rudd,
a former premier of Australia, said that Beijing’s backing of Russia over
Ukraine was “highly significant”. Appearing on the MSNBC’s Morning Joe, NATO
Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said on February 4, 2022 that NATO’s
expansion to Central and Eastern Europe was “a great success story”. However,
China has significant commercial stakes in Europe and Ukraine, so there is also
a common belief among many political observers that there is a limit to which
Beijing can throw support for Moscow, and White House Press Secretary Jen
Psaki has called that out on February 4, 2022. After the Putin-Xi
talks, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov told reporters at Beijing
that the tensions had been “deliberatively incited by the West around the
Russian Federation and China".
U.S. Intel Paints a Bleak Outcome of an almost Imminent Invasion
The Washington Post reported on February 5, 2022 that Russia had almost completed a
blueprint of a swift, large-scale invasion of Ukraine that would kill more than
50,000 civilians, render the government in Kyiv impotent within
two days and escalate an unprecedent humanitarian crisis with 5 million
people fleeing the fighting and resulting chaos. The Washington Post reported
the scale of disaster based on a U.S. intelligence estimate that had been
shared with lawmakers and European partners. Meanwhile, two Russian fighter
jets, Tu-22M3 Russian fighter jets, flew over Belarus on February 5,
2022 as part of an aerial drill.
Russia Dismisses U.S. Intel Reports, Diplomacy Picks up Steam
On February 6, 2022, Kremlin dismissed with usual despise a
report compiled by the U.S. intelligence agencies that had been shared with the
lawmakers and European partners as a figment of imagination that would be akin
to Washington attacking London. Kremlin also accused Washington of doing
everything to “fan a new conflict”. However, U.S. National Security Adviser
Jake Sullivan defended the intel report that had estimated about 50,000 civilian
deaths, fall of Kyiv within two days and displacement of about 5 million people
in a swift, large-scale attack of Ukraine. Appearing on NBC’s Meet the Press,
Sullivan said that Russia was indeed planning for such a swift, large-scale
attack. However,
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky differed with
the White House on Russia’s invasion plan as Ukrainian Presidential Adviser
Mykhailo Podolyak said in a statement issued on February 6, 2022 that
the chance of a diplomatic solution “is substantially higher than the threat of
further escalation”. In the midst of a chaotic situation, Belarus added an
additional element of escalation on February 6, 2022 as the head of the
country’s security council, Alexander Volfovich, said on February 6,
2022 that any expansion of NATO’s sphere of influence would embolden
Ukraine to attack its northern neighbor.
As the tension over Ukraine is
brewing, diplomacy seems to be picking up as French President Emmanuel Macron
is set to travel to Moscow and Kyiv to meet with President Vladimir Putin on
February 7, 2022 and President Volodymyr Zelensky on February 8, 2022,
respectively. Concurrently, Germany’s new chancellor, Olaf Scholz, is
set to travel across the Atlantic to meet with President Joe Biden and
other U.S. officials.
U.S. officials expressed overt and covert disappointment
over Germany’s lukewarm role so far in the unified western response to Russia’s
troops build-up along Ukraine’s eastern flank and soon-to-be-happening war
games with Belarus in the north. Germany relies on Russia for significant portion
of its natural gas need, and stakes are high with the Nord Stream 2 project
that will bring Russian gas to German market bypassing Ukraine as the pipeline
runs underneath the Baltic Sea. Former German Chancellor Gerhard
Schroeder, who has been close to Putin, heads the shareholders’ committee
of Nord Stream AG and the board of directors of Nord Stream 2. In a masterstroke
by Kremlin, Gazprom, Russia’s natural gas behemoth, on February 4,
2022 named Schroeder to the board of directors. U.S. lawmakers such as Sen.
Richard Blumenthal and Sen. Rob Portland expressed open disappointment with Germany’s
role, especially Berlin had not yet given consent to Estonia’s request for
transferring Howitzers that it had acquired from Germany to Ukraine.
Putin, Macron Meet at Moscow; Biden, Scholz in Washington
February 7, 2022 turned out to be a hectic day of diplomacy as high-profile meetings
were held across continents. Visiting French President Emmanuel Macron
met with his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, at Kremlin in an
effort to find a way forward from this diplomatic and political quagmire.
Meanwhile, U.S. President Joe Biden met with German Chancellor Olaf
Scholz at the White House. They talked, among others, the future of Nord
Stream 2. Biden made it clear that if Russia attacked Ukraine, Washington
would not give the go-forward consent for operationalizing the pipeline.
Macron Diplomacy Yields Limited Results
French President Emmanuel Macron on February 8, 2022 met with Ukrainian
President Volodymyr Zelensky at Kyiv, but acknowledged after the meeting
that “no one is naïve” and it’s not possible to “settle this crisis with a few
hours of discussion”. As Macron had arrived at Kyiv from Moscow, a detachment
of five warships was sailing in the Black Sea as part of a naval drill. French
President Emmanuel Macron is pushing the mantra of fortifying the 2015 Minsk
Agreement as the only way out of this crisis. Kremlin accused Kyiv of violating
the principles of Minsk Agreement.
Ukraine to Launch Drill; Russian Commanders Fly to Belarus
Heightening the tension, there are two concurrent military drills
happening in Ukraine and Belarus. Ukrainian military is to launch
a 10-day war simulation and defense preparedness on February
10, 2022, using drones and U.S.- and NATO-supplied anti-tank weapons. The
drill spanning from February 10, 2022 to February 20, 2022 will concur
with a much more expansive and elaborative joint military endeavor between
Russia and Belarus. Russia’s army chief, Gen. Valery Gerasimov, arrived
at Belarus on February 9, 2022 in what Kremlin spokesman Dmitry
Peskov had described as a joint war drill aimed at addressing the “unprecedented
threats” from the west that “are, unfortunately, much larger and much more
dangerous than before”. Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov on February
9, 2022 said that there would be more defense equipment that “we have long
dreamed of” coming from the west. On the diplomatic front, Britain’s top
diplomat, Foreign Minister Liz Truss, left London for Moscow on February
9, 2022 to talk to her Russian counterpart, Sergey Lavrov, in order
to find a way-forward aimed at exploring a possible de-escalation of the tense
situation.
Johnson Calls Ukrainian Crisis at the “Most Dangerous Moment”
Multipronged diplomacy is the order of the day on February 10, 2022
as the U.K. takes the spotlight in leading the mantle. British Prime
Minister Boris Johnson met with European officials at Brussels during the
day. Before leaving for Warsaw, Johnson expressed consternation over what he
had called as Europe at a painstaking crossroads and at the thrall of the “most
dangerous moment”. Meanwhile, Boris Johnson’s top diplomat, Liz Truss,
had a very frosty meeting with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov.
Lavrov dismissed western speculation that Moscow at any moment could invade
Ukraine.
U.S. Asks Its Citizens to Get out of Ukraine within 48 Hours
U.S. now sees the Russian invasion of Ukraine as a matter of “when”, not
“if”, raising the specter of a conflict more likely than ever. U.S. National
Security Adviser Jake Sullivan on February 11, 2022 urged all
American citizens to get out of Ukraine within 48 hours. Sullivan also said
that Americans who would stay behind should not expect the U.S. military to
come to their rescue. This is the starkest reminder that the administration has
issued to date. Other nations such as Canada, U.K., Norway and Denmark
are asking their citizens too to leave Ukraine. Meanwhile, the U.S. is to
deploy 3,000 troops to Poland, according to Defense Secretary Lloyd
Austin.
Biden, Putin Hold Talks as Tension Reaches an Alarming Level
As the tension around Ukraine rose significantly, with Russia massing
hundreds of thousands of troops in the north, east and south as well as the western
nations racing to withdraw their diplomats and urging their residents to leave
Ukraine as soon as possible, U.S. President Joe Biden and Russian President
Vladimir Putin on February 12, 2022 held an hour-long virtual meeting.
However, both nations remained entrenched in their respective positions. Biden was
reported to have stated that if Kremlin attacked Ukraine, the sanctions against
Russia would be “swift and severe”. Prior to Biden-Putin session, State
Secretary Anthony Blinken, who is currently traveling through Asia-Pacific
region, has held a session with his Russian counterpart, Sergey Lavrov “to
discuss acute and shared concerns”. Defense Minister Lloyd Austin on February
12, 2022 ordered withdrawal of 160 members of the Florida National Guard
who had been deployed in Ukraine for advisory role. The State Department on February
12, 2022 issued a travel advisory to Americans in Ukraine. Many of the
embassy staff are leaving the country, and the embassy in Kyiv will be
shuttered. The consulate office in the far-western city of L’viv will now
on handle all related embassy stuff. Ukrainian government, though, under
heightened alert is trying to tamp down the fear and panic, urging people to “remain
calm".
Biden Holds Talks with Zelensky; German to Visit the Region in Last
Ditch Diplomacy
A day after warning Russian President Vladimir Putin of “swift
and severe” consequences for any misadventure in Ukraine, President Joe
Biden on February 13, 2022 assured Ukrainian President Volodymyr
Zelensky in a 53-minute call that the U.S., NATO and other international
actors would work with Kyiv to “pursue diplomacy and deterrence in response to
Russia’s military build-up”. Although the west has raised alarm over security
situation in the region and taken concrete steps to withdraw embassy staff and
call for their citizens to get out of Ukraine, Zelensky regime is taking it easy
and trying to maintain calm to preserve investor confidence, avoid panic and
eschew run on the banks.
Meanwhile, British Defense Secretary Ben Wallace,
who had visited Moscow last week to talk to Putin, told Sunday Times on February
13, 2022 that a Russian attack against Ukraine was “highly likely”. But not
to lose hope for diplomacy, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz is undertaking
a very important visit to the theater to meet with Zelensky on February 14,
2022 and with Putin on February 15, 2022, respectively.
“Invasion Remains Distinctly Possible”, Biden Says Amidst Report of Some
Troops Pullback
As reports of some Russian troops pullback have been broadcast on
various social media and newspapers in the past 24 to 48 hours, President
Joe Biden is not so sure, saying on February 15, 2022 that an “invasion
remains distinct possibility”. Biden reiterated west’s resolve that crippling
sanctions would be imposed if invasion took place and Nord Stream 2
pipeline would not be operational. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz wrapped
up his two-day swing through Kyiv and Moscow by holding a joint
press conference with Vladimir Putin on February 15, 2022. Scholz
said that NATO’s enlargement was not on the agenda. On the report of Russia
troops withdrawal, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dymtro Kuleba said in Kyiv
on February 15, 2022 that he would believe when “we see their withdrawal”.
In Brussels, NATO chief, Jens Stoltenberg, held a high-level meeting of the
organization’s defense ministers to discuss strengthening the alliance’s
eastern flank.
Cyberattack Takes Down Several Ukrainian Government Websites
A massive cyberattack targeting various Ukrainian government websites on
February 15, 2022 crippled at least 10 departmental portals, including
defense, foreign and cultural as well as the payment option and apps of Ukraine’s
two largest banks—state-owned Privatbank and state-owned Sberbank.
Ukraine’s top cyber-defense official, Victor Zhora, said that there was
none yet identified responsible for this DDOS (Distributed-Denial-Of-Service) attacks.
This came almost after a month of the last attack when a ransomware attack took
place on January 14, 2022, targeting Ukraine’s State Emergency
Service and Motor Transport Insurance Bureau with a ”wiper” that plastered
the websites with a threatening message: “Be afraid and expect the worst".
Russian Claim of Troops Withdrawal Disputed by the U.S., NATO
That Moscow is withdrawing troops from the border areas of Ukraine is
being hotly contested by Washington, Brussels and other western capitals. U.S.
State Department Spokesman Ned Price said on February 16, 2022 that
there was no evidence that Russia was withdrawing troops from the Ukrainian
borders. The Washington Post, Bloomberg News and The
Associated Press, quoting the U.S. government sources, has said that
contrary to troops withdrawal, Russia is instead boosting its troops presence
by an additional 7,000 soldiers. State Department Spokesman Ned Price put it in blunt terms: “this is
a Russian playbook, to paint a picture publicly” while “they do the opposite”.
NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg
said on February 16, 2022 that there was no proof of Russia’s troops
withdrawal. NATO is bolstering its eastern flank, with the U.S. sending 5,000
troops to Poland and Romania. Meanwhile, Russian President Vladimir Putin
continues to stick to Kremlin’s triumvirate of security guaranty positions: (1)
Ukraine and other Former Soviet Republic states will not be allowed entry to
NATO, (2) No war games and war drills near the Russian borders, (3) Withdrawing
all NATO troops and equipment to within NATO’s pre-1997 borders.
Biden “Convinced” over Putin Invading Ukraine
In a nationwide TV address, President Joe Biden said on
February 18, 2022 that he was now “convinced” that Russia would invade
Ukraine. Biden reiterated in his address that “we are calling out Russia’s plans
loudly”. Although Biden administration will not send troops to Ukraine, west will
collectively take stringent measures against Kremlin should there be any
invasion. There is fear of so called “false-flag” operations that would trigger
escalation fueled by self-inflicted attacks or other provocation for which the
ground conditions are being already prepared. Local authorities of the
separatist regions of Donetsk and Luhansk on February 18, 2022
announced evacuation plan for thousands of people from the rebel-controlled
enclaves to the Russian region of Rostov. Pro-Russian secessionist
leader of Donetsk, Denis Pushilin, said during the day that Ukrainian
military were about to attack the enclave, a “false-flag” narrative that was vehemently
contested by Lt. Gen. Valeriy Zaluzhnyy, commander in chief of Ukraine’s
armed forces, as “deliberately misleading”. West accuses Russia of propagating
misleading information that an imminent attack by Ukrainian forces on the
Russia-backed rebel territories of Luhansk and Donetsk are in the
offing.
U.S. Warns Companies against Cyberattacks
U.S. Deputy National Security Adviser Anne Neuberger on February 18,
2022 issued warning to
country’s business houses, firms, hospitals and financial institutions to take
all possible mitigation measures against possible cyberattacks by
Moscow-financed or Moscow-backed groups as Russia was preparing invasion of
Ukraine.
Zelenskyy Seeks Meeting with Putin
As his country faces immediate invasion by Russia, Ukrainian
President Volodymyr Zelensky is attending the Munich Security Conference.
On February 19, 2022, Zelenskyy leveraged the international audience at
the Munich Security Conference to seek out a meeting with his Russian
counterpart, Vladimir Putin, at a place of Putin’s choosing. Zelensky
also met with U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris who was leading the U.S.
delegation at the Munich Security Conference. During the day, the
secessionist leaders of Luhansk and Donetsk regions announced
mobilization of fighters, arguing that Ukrainian army had been launching
attacks on homes, schools and other targets in the militant-controlled regions.
Vice President Harris reiterated America’s vow to “impose significant and
unprecedented economic costs” on Russia if Putin invaded his neighbor. As part
of growing fear psychosis that has gripped Ukrainians, they are also seeing how
NATO and western countries are scaling down their presence. Austria and
Germany on February 19, 2022 asked their citizens to leave Ukraine
as soon as possible. German airline company Lufthansa suspended its
flights to Odessa and Kyiv. NATO moved its diplomatic corps from Kyiv
to the western city of L’viv. In another sign that Moscow might be
thinking of consolidating its grip over breakaway Donbas region, Russia
on February 19, 2022 announced issuance of 700,000 Russian passports to
people who had already been, or would have to be, evacuated to Russia since the
mass evacuation had begun on February 18, 2022.
Biden, Putin Agree to Talk
In fast moving scenarios, French officials have not lost hope for a diplomatic way-forward plan to avert an all-out conflict between Russia and Ukraine as several media reports quoted French officials on February 20, 2022 that U.S. President Joe Biden had "agreed in principle" to talk to Russian President Vladimir Putin in the coming days if Russia didn't carry out invasion. Russian President Vladimir Putin had made up his mind to invade Ukraine and also attack Kyiv, President Biden told the U.S. public on February 18, 2022. The last push for diplomacy to avert a bloody conflict is happening amidst report that Russia is not withdrawing its forces from Belarus after the completion a war exercise with Belarusian army. The joint Belarusian-Russian war drills ended on February 20, 2022.
Meanwhile, U.S. has accused Russia of making a hit list of Ukrainians "to be killed, or sent to camps following a military occupation". The Washington Post has obtained a letter on February 20, 2022 night in which the U.S ambassador to the U.N. and international operations in Geneva, Bathsheba Crocker, voiced Washington's concern over "targeted killings, kidnappings/forced disappearances, unjust detentions, and the use of torture" against those who "will oppose Russian actions". The letter was addressed to Michelle Bachelet, the chief of the U.N. Human Rights Commission, and included specific warnings of potential persecution of vulnerable groups such as religious and ethnic minorities as well as LGBTQ.
Putin Recognizes Breakaway Regions, Sends Russian Troops
In a prelude to a full-fledged war on Ukraine, Russian President
Vladimir Putin on February 21, 2022 recognized the independence of breakaway
Donbas regions of Luhansk and Donetsk. He signed decrees
to this effect during the day, and made it public in a nationwide TV address,
spewing out Russia’s history and western conspiracy. Late on February 21,
2022, Russian army columns were headed to Luhansk and Donetsk.
U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken called the move as a “clear
attack on Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity”. In his address to
the nation, Putin even took issues with Lenin and Bolsheviks for not being fair to Russians. Putin also called Ukraine a puppet state which could develop
nuclear weapons under the aegis of western world. That will be a “real threat”,
according to Putin. “The level of threat for our country is becoming greater
and greater”, Putin warned Russians in televised address.
Putin authorized Russian Defense Ministry to send Russian troops
to Luhansk and Donetsk for “peacekeeping” purpose. The decree signed
by Putin and issued on February 21, 2022 reflects the agreement of
Moscow with the two separatist-controlled regions in Donbas, and it allows
Russian military bases inside the rebel-controlled areas. However, not all the
areas in Donetsk and Luhansk are rebel-controlled, parts of them are controlled
by Ukrainian forces. The U.S. as of late February 21, 2022 didn’t impose the so
called expansive sanctions that it had promised as Biden administration did not
use the term “invasion” yet. It’s acknowledged that Russian army was already in
the rebel-held breakaway regions previously. The only suite of sanctions
announced by the U.S. on February 21, 2022 was related to businesses and
investment in rebel-controlled Luhansk and Donetsk, a miniscule degree
of punitive measures having practically no effect on Kremlin. Late February 21, 2022, U.N. Security Council is meeting at
an emergency session to discuss the fast-deteriorating situation at the request by the Ukrainian ambassador to the U.N., Sergiy Kyslytsya. Ukrainian President Volodymyr
Zelensky has been urging for days, last time he has done so at the Munich
Security Conference on February 19, 2022, for the western nations to adopt
pre-emptive measures to impose sanctions on Russia. However, the U.S. and the
west balked as they want to leave the biting sanctions as an exhaustive,
last-stroke measure.
Meanwhile, tens of thousands of evacuees from the rebel-held areas have
poured into western Russia in rebel-sponsored buses mobilized by Donetsk People Republic
and Luhansk People’s Republic. U.S. has also moved all embassy personnel from L’viv to Poland during
the day.
U.S., Europe Begin Imposing Sanctions as Russian Lawmakers Okay Attacks
A day after Russian President Vladimir Putin signed the decree
that recognized the independence of Luhansk and Donetsk, Russian
parliament on February 22, 2022 approved Russian military action outside
the country’s boundary, paving the way for the Russian army that had massed along
the three sides of Ukraine to invade at any time. At the White House, U.S.
President Joe Biden called Putin’s recognition of two breakaway regions’
independence as the “beginning of a Russian invasion of Ukraine”. U.S. and NATO,
meanwhile, are bolstering the alliance’s eastern flank, especially the Baltics.
President Joe Biden said that “none of us will be fooled” by Russian action. Reacting
to Russia’s recognition of Luhansk and Donetsk, U.S. Secretary of
State Anthony Blinken on February 22, 2022 canceled a meeting with his
Russian counterpart, Sergey Lavrov, in Geneva on February 24, 2022.
During the day, Biden administration imposed sanctions on two Kremlin-linked
banks, freezing their assets and blocking their ability to trade their debts
under the U.S. jurisdiction. These two Kremlin-linked banks work closely with Russian government and
Russian military, and are estimated to have $80 billion in asset. European Union, too, imposed economic penalties
against Russia on February 22, 2022. EU sanctions, announced during the
day, targeted 351 Russian lawmakers who had voted to recognize the independence of
Luhansk and Donetsk as well as 27 other officials and institutions in defense and
banking sectors. EU also restricted the Russian access to European capital and
financial markets.
The U.S. is sending 800 infantry troops and 40 attack aircraft
to Baltics and NATO’s eastern flank from other parts of Europe as well as F-35 fighter
jets and AH-64 Apache attack helicopters. Earlier on February 22, 2022,
Russia’s upper house of parliament, Federation Council, voted to approve
the deployment of Russian army outside the country. Later in the day, Putin
laid out three conditions to Kyiv for holding back on invasion: (1)
renouncing any effort to become a member of NATO, (2) recognizing the
annexation of Crimea, and (3) partial de-militarization. The new conditions
that Putin has laid out straight to Ukraine for resolving the crisis is a
modified iteration of Russia’s so called security guaranty sent previously
to NATO and the U.S.: (1) prohibition of any former Soviet Republic from entry
into NATO, (2) limiting deployment military hardware and troops to within the pre-1997
NATO borders, (3) excluding the regions in Russia’s vicinity from war drills.
On February 22, 2022, Germany suspended certification of Nord
Stream 2 pipeline in response to Russian decision to recognize the independence
of Luhansk and Donetsk.
Russia Begins Military Operation in Ukraine
Russia in the early hours of February 24, 2022 launched military
operation and troops movement inside Ukraine, and Russian President Vladimir
Putin warned the west against any effort to interfere as there would be “consequences”.
Putin blamed Ukrainian government’s hostile stand against rebel-held enclaves,
a “false-flag” justification that the U.S. intelligence had repeatedly referred
to that Moscow would use as a justification. In midst of night’s darkness,
several explosions were heard in Kharkiv, Odessa and other cities. U.S.
President Joe Biden on February 23, 2022 (Washington time) called
the attack “unprovoked and unjustified”, and stressed that the west would hold
Moscow “accountable”. During the day, Biden administration expanded the
sanctions to include the company that had built Nord Stream 2 pipeline
and its officials.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on February 24, 2022 went on television
at 1AM local time, and straight talked to Russian people. In Russian language,
Zelensky addressed the Russian people, and told them that only they could stop
this invasion. Hours earlier, Ukrainian lawmakers approved a decree to impose
national emergency for 30 days. Under February 23, 2022, parliamentary move,
Ukrainian lawmakers banned all internal political events, restricted movement
and any anti-government demonstration in the “interest of national security".
Ukraine’s minister of digital transformation, Mykhailo Fedorov, said
on February 23, 2022 that there were orchestrated distributed-denial-of-services
(DDOS) attacks during the day against various Ukrainian government websites and
banks.
Despite majority of Americans strongly voicing concern over Russian
invasion, an AP-NORC poll released on February 23, 2022 found
only 26% of support among Americans (Democrats 32% vs. Republicans 22%) for
any major U.S. involvement in the conflict. 52% Americans favor only a
minor role (52% Democrats vs. 54% Republicans) while 20% prefer no role
whatsoever (14% Democrats vs. 22% Republicans), according to the AP-NORC poll.
Thousands Fleeing the Conflict amidst Chorus of condemnation
As Russian missiles began striking Ukrainian airbases and military
facilities, followed by ground invasion from three sides, tens of thousands of
Ukrainians were hitting roads to flee Kyiv and other cities on February
24, 2022. Many are taking shelter in the subways to avert airstrikes. Ukrainian
President Volodymyr Zelensky remained defiant, saying on Twitter that they “won’t
give up its freedom”. In a video address during the day, President Zelensky
said that 137 “heroes”, including 10 military service members, had been killed
and 316 injured. Earlier, Zelensky cut all ties with Moscow. He also warned the
world to take Russian invasion very seriously because “tomorrow war will knock
on your door”. Russian Army was reported to have seized the Chernobyl
Nuclear Plant in the first hours of the invasion and taken the plant’s
staff hostage.
U.S. and other nations imposed additional sanctions on Russia and its
oligarchs. Countries around the world condemned Russian aggression, with very
few exceptions.
Kyiv Under Russian Assault; Tens of Thousands Fleeing
In the early morning of February 26, 2022, Kyiv is being
pounded by Russian missiles and artillery as Russian army has reached at the
doorstep of Ukraine’s capital. NATO is bolstering the alliance’s eastern flank.
On the second full day of Russian invasion, February 25, 2022, Ukrainian
President Volodymyr Zelensky asked all men of fighting age to take up arms
to defend the country and he rebuffed a U.S. request to evacuate the capital. Zelensky
also took issues with western nations for not doing enough to help Ukraine. Meanwhile,
Kremlin during the day on February 25, 2022 sent mixed signals. First, Foreign
Minister Sergey Lavrov floated idea of a meeting, but was quickly dismissed
by President Vladimir Putin, who during a national security council
meeting called the current officials at Kyiv as drug addict and neo-Nazis.
On February 25, 2022, U.S. President Joe Biden and other
NATO leaders met in an emergency session to discuss the fast-evolving crisis. NATO
and the U.S. have decided to send additional several thousand troops to
shore up 30-nation alliance’s eastern flank. Pentagon is sending an additional
7,000 troops to Europe, where there were already 5,000 troops present. NATO for
the first time is deploying its NATO Response Force. Parts of a
spearhead unit, known in NATO jargon as the Very High Readiness Joint Task
Force, will also be deployed.
Meanwhile, demonstrations were held on February 25, 2022 near
Russian embassies and consular offices in various nations. Even anti-war
demonstrators, thousands in numbers, participated on February 25, 2022
against Russian invasion in Moscow, St. Petersburg and other Russian cities.
Russian Advance on Kyiv Slowed
Ukrainians are fighting asymmetrical battle against invading Russian
army, but on February 26, 2022, the third day of invasion, they have
been able to slow down the Russian advance towards Kyiv from the north.
Ukrainian citizens were taking up arms and making Molotov Cocktails to fend
their cities and towns. Instant checkpoints have sprung up throughout Kyiv. A
huge blast was reported from an oil depot in the city of Vasylkiv, 25
miles south of Kyiv. Ukrainian authorities on February 26, 2022 said
that the Russian army had blown off a gas pipeline in the country’s
second-largest city, Kharkiv.
According to the United Nations, more than 48,000 Ukrainians had
fled the country in the first 48 hours, most of them to Romania and
Poland. U.S. on February 26, 2022 announced that it would send $350
million worth defensive equipment and arms to Ukraine, including body armors,
small arms and anti-tank weapons. During the day, G-7 leaders issued a joint
statement, consolidating their collective support for Ukraine. The statement condemned
Russia’s “assault on fundamental international rules and norms that had
prevailed since the Second World War” and vowed to “continue imposing costs on
Russia that will further isolate Russia from the international financial system
and our economies”. On February 26, 2022, G-7 announced barring some
Russian banks from the SWIFT international network and imposing sanctions on
Russia’s central bank.
Putin Orders Russia’s Nuclear Forces Ready
President Vladimir Putin on February 27, 2022 raised the
escalation by several notches as he put his nuclear forces on high alert,
citing NATO’s aggressive postures and strict sanctions. Putin’s announcement to
raise the alert for Russia’s nuclear forces came amidst a slower-than-anticipated
progress of Russian forces on the ground as they faced stiff resistance from
Ukrainians. Meanwhile, the west is buttressing the defense forces of Ukraine,
with the U.S. sending stinger missiles as part of a $350 million
package and Germany sending 500 stinger missiles and other weapons.
However, there are questions about the effectiveness of U.S. sanctions
on Russia as their main revenue source, oil and natural gas exports, have been
carved out as an exception. The energy exports are providing the vital revenue
to Russian state, according to political analysts and pundits, to continue with
their aggression against Ukraine. On February 27, 2022, U.S. Embassy in
Russia issued a statement on its website, asking all American citizens to leave
Russia posthaste as the number of commercial airlines available was fast
dwindling. As hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians have fled the country to
Poland, Moldova, Hungary, Romania and Slovakia, some 22,000 Ukrainians
have taken reverse trips through Polish-Ukrainian borders alone to take up arms
to fight the Russians.
On February 27, 2022, 27-nation European Union banned two state-owned
Russian media companies—Russia Today, or RT, and Sputnik—as they had
become the propaganda tool to “spread their lies to justify Putin’s war and to
sow division in our union”, according to European Commission President Ursula
von der Leyen. During the day, both EU and Canada banned Russian flight in
their airspace, leaving only the U.S. to continue to have Russian flight
through its airspace. U.N. refugee agency said on February 27, 2022 that at
least 368,000 Ukrainians had fled the nation to Moldova, Romania, Hungary,
Slovakia and Poland since the February 24, 2022, launch of Russian invasion of
Ukraine.
Meanwhile, anti-war protesters in Russia are demanding that Putin
immediately stop the war on Ukraine. OVD-Info rights group that tracks
political arrests said on February 27, 2022 that at least 2,063
Russians were arrested during the day, taking the number of total arrestees
to 5,000 since the war had begun on February 24, 2022. Germany’s
stunning decision on February 27, 2022 to send 500 stinger missiles and
1,000 anti-tank weapons is no less than a seismic shift in German policy not to
ship weapons to conflict zone. German Chancelor Olaf Scholz told Bundestag
to the applause of the lawmakers that “Putin created a new reality” and “we
have given” one clear answer to that new reality.
40-mile-long Convoy Heading to Kyiv; Russia-Ukraine Talks Remain
Inconclusive
Russian and Ukrainian delegations met for five hours on February 28,
2022 near the Belarusian border and held intense discussions to end the
conflict, but the talks remained inconclusive as non-stop Russian bombing on Kharkiv,
the second-largest city in Ukraine, created a devastating situation that’s sure
to lead to a heart-wrenching scenario about to unravel from one neighborhood to
another neighborhood throughout the city. Ukrainian President Volodymyr
Zelensky said in a video message that onslaught on Kharkiv was a “war
crime”. He also called for an “international tribunal to judge Russia’s actions”.
Meanwhile, a 40-mile-long convoy of Russian tanks and armored vehicles was seen
moving towards Kyiv from the north.
On February 28, 2022, U.N. raised the specter of the worst
refugee crisis in post-World War II Europe as it estimated that at least
500,000 Ukrainians had fled to Poland, Moldova, Romania, Hungary and Slovakia
in the first five days (February 24-28, 2022) of the Russian invasion.
As the U.S. and European sanctions are starting to inflict real costs on the Russian
economy, ruble had significantly lost its value against dollar. Russian
Central Bank, which itself faced western sanctions too, raised a key
interest rate on February 28, 2022 from 9.5% to 20% to provide cushion
to falling ruble and boost confidence of average Russians against run on banks.
What’s more eye-popping this time was that Europe remained steadfast and united
to impose sanctions against Russia. Switzerland, which usually remains neutral
and even has hosted a summit between Presidents Joe Biden and Vladimir Putin
in June 2021, on February 28, 2022 has announced that it would join the
27-nation European Union’s sanctions regime. Swiss President Ignazio Cassis
told reporters on February 28, 2022 that the “Swiss government has put
an emphasis on the respect and protection of values that are basis for our
civilizations.
Ukraine’s Second-largest City at the Brink of Ruin by Russian
Bombardment
On March 1, 2022, Russian bombardment of Kharkiv, Ukraine’s
second-largest city, expanded to main city square as it lay at ruin. Ukrainian
President Volodymyr Zelensky called the Russian brutality in Kharkiv
a blatant campaign of terror. Zelensky vowed: “nobody will forgive” and “nobody
will forget".
Russian Offensive on the 7th Day Turns Bloodier as Refugee
Crisis Deepens
Russia on March 2, 2022 pressed ahead to completely decimate the
second-largest city of Ukraine, Kharkiv, as Russian shelling of the city-core
continued. Russian army also encircled two key port cities during the day as
the chief prosecutor of the International Criminal Court opened an
investigation into Russia’s gross human rights abuses in Ukraine. Ukrainian
President Volodymyr Zelensky during the day urged his citizens to continue
putting up fierce resistance. On the diplomatic front, the U.N. General
Assembly overwhelmingly denounced Russia’s aggression against Ukraine. Also,
on March 2, 2022, Russia provided the casualty figures for the first
time since the Ukraine offensive had been launched on February 24, 2022:
at least 500 Russian troops had been killed and more than 1,600 had been injured. No figures are available yet on the Ukraine’s side though the civilian
casualties run as high as thousands, if not tens of thousands.
On March 2, 2022, the mayor of the besieged city of Kharkiv, Igor
Terekhov, vowed to continue fighting in an interview with the BBC, saying
that Russia “cannot frighten the city of Kharkiv”. Britain’s Defense
Ministry said that Mariupol, an Azov Sea port city, had been
encircled by Russian soldiers. Mariupol Mayor Vadym Boychenko said that
the fighting had been so intense that dead bodies could not be retrieved from the
ruins. On March 2, 2022, Kherson, a Black Sea port, became the
first major Ukrainian city to fall completely to Russian aggression. Kherson
Mayor Igor Kolykhaev asked the Russian soldiers not to shoot civilians. In
the northern Ukranian city of Chernihiv, two cruise missiles hit the
local hospital, inflicting significant damage.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky called the invading
Russian army as not a proud army of fighters, but full of “confused children”
doing a thankless job for their master. British Defense Minister Ben Wallace
blasted Vladimir Putin for his “brutality”. Kyiv Mayor Vitali
Klitschko vowed to fight to the end. Meanwhile, Russian jailed opposition leader
Alexie Navalny on March 2, 2022 urged Russians all over the world to
protest against Russian attack on Ukraine. Separately, IAEA on March 2, 2022
raised grave alarm over the Russian army’s zeroing on the largest nuclear plant
in Europe, Zaporizhzhya Facility, and IAEA Director-General Rafael
Mariano Grossi said that “I continue to be gravely concerned".
On the world stage, Russia looks more isolated today than any time in the
recent past. On March 2, 2022, U.N. General Assembly met at an
emergency session, first time that the 193-nation international body had met at
an emergency session since 1997, and voted 141-5 to condemn Russian invasion of
Ukraine as well as to demand an immediate end to violence and withdrawal of
troops. 35 nations abstained from voting. Four nations which have sided with
Russia are Belarus, Syria, North Korea and Eritrea.
Europe’s Largest Nuclear Plant Shelled; More than a Million Ukrainians
Made Refugees
As more than a million refugees entered Poland, Hungary, Slovakia,
Romania and Moldova in the past eight days, marking the largest
refugee migration in Europe in the swiftest time window, U.N. High
Commissioner for Refugees Filippo Grandi on March 3, 2022 voiced concern
that the coming days would test the resolve of Europe and the world as up to
10% of the Ukrainian population might be displaced. Meanwhile, fire broke out
at Europe’s largest nuclear power plant as the city of Enerhodar came
under Russian shelling. U.S. Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm said on
March 3, 2022 that the nuclear reactors of Zaporizhzhya Plant were
not damaged as the radiation levels outside the plant stayed at normal levels.
Russia Seized Europe’s Largest N-Plant, Ukraine’s President Decries West
over No-Fly Zone
In an onslaught-filled day that pulverized vast swath of Ukraine,
Russian soldiers on March 4, 2022 seized the control of four-reactor Zaporizhzhya
Nuclear Plant, Europe’s largest nuclear power plant, although Ukrainian
workers continued operating the plant. Russian shelling hit a conference room
in the complex and ignited an intense fire, raising a global scare. The fire
was extinguished hours later. The nuclear reactors were reported to be safe.
Meanwhile, 1.2 million Ukrainians have fled under the barrage of
punishing assaults from air and ground, marking the worst migration crisis in
Europe since World War II.
Referring to Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Plant, International Atomic
Energy Agency Director-General Rafael Grossi said on March 4, 2022
that only one out of four reactors was operational and, that too, at 60%
capacity level. Pentagon spokesman John Kirby said that the episode “underscores
the recklessness” of Putin. At an emergency session at the U.N. Security
Council, Ukraine’s U.N. Ambassador Sergiy Kyslytsya accused Moscow of “committing
nuclear terrorism”. Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky
again asked the West to enforce a “no-fly zone” over Ukraine, citing the
shelling of and fire at the Zaporizhzhya plant. NATO
Secretary-General Jen Stoltenberg on March 4, 2022 ruled out the “no-fly
zone” imposition over Ukraine as that would, for sure, would put the West in
direct conflict with Russia.
During the day, U.N. Human Rights Council voted to investigate
the alleged abuses of Russia in Ukraine, a day after the chief prosecutor of
the International Criminal Court announced an investigation into allegations of
Russia’s rights abuses.
Putin Threatens Ukraine’s Statehood
After two rounds of talks between Russian and Ukrainian officials in Belarus,
parties remained far apart over the so-called evacuation corridors, crucial to
Ukrainians for fleeing the Russian assault. The third round will most likely to
be held on March 7, 2022. Russian President Vladimir Putin on March
5, 2022 threatened Ukraine that its fierce resistance would put the
statehood at risk. Putin was addressing the workers of state-owned airline
company, Aeroflot, when he added that western sanctions imposed were tantamount
to “declaring war” on Russia. Meanwhile, 1.4 million people had fled the
country over the past 10 days.
Russia Pulverizes Ukraine; Truce Violated for the Second Day
Within hours that a presumptive truce was to go into effect, paving the
way for tens of thousands of entrapped Ukrainians to flee the besieged Ukrainian
cities, it collapsed just a house of cards. Russians failed to observe it for
the second day on March 6, 2022. Russian and Ukrainian negotiators met
in Belarus in the midst of the war and agreed to a truce to facilitate
humanitarian corridors. Russian forces on March 6, 2022 targeted to
degrade a commercial airport in Central Ukraine as well as a military airport
by incessant airstrikes and shelling. The Azov Sea city of Mariupol came
under a brutal assault from Russian forces on March 6, 2022.
The Washington Post reported on March 6, 2022 that several Ukrainian civilians were
killed as they tried to flee Irpin, a town outside Kyiv,
underlining how the deliberate violation to cease-fire by Russians could put
the lives of civilians at jeopardy. Russia extended its indiscriminate shelling
and airstrikes throughout the country, and as of March 6, 2022, Putin’s
targets included outskirts of Kyiv, Chernihiv in the north, Mykolaiv
in the south, Kharkiv, country’s second-largest city, and Mariupol,
port city on the Azov Sea, according to Ukrainian presidential adviser, Oleksiy
Arestovich. The miles-long convoy that was zeroing on in Kyiv from the
north remained stalled as it faced heavy resistance from the Ukrainian military
personnel and armed civilians alike.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky remained his country’s primary inspiration for
resistance, urging his fellow Ukrainians to “drive this evil out of our cities,
our land”. Simultaneously, Zelensky took the West to task for its refusal to declare
“no-fly zone” over Ukraine. Pope Francis, in a very unusual move, on March
6, 2022 sent two cardinals to Ukraine to seek an end to the bloody conflict
that had erupted on February 24, 2022. Meanwhile, U.N. High Commissioner
for Refugees Fillipo Grandi said on March 6, 2022 that more than 1.5
million Ukrainians had fled the country since the conflict had erupted on February
24, 2022. Grandi called the mass exodus the “fastest refugee crisis in
Europe since the World War II".
Local Cease-fire Deal Reached to Facilitate Civilian Evacuation as
Russian Attacks Intensify
After the third round of talks between Ukrainian and Russian negotiators
in Belarus on March 7, 2022, a sliver of hope for local truces appeared
to have emerged. Although there is no agreement on ending the conflict, or reaching
a broader truce, or even scaling down the Russian ferocities, human corridors are
to be operational effective March 8, 2022, according to the head of the
Russian negotiating team, Vladimir Medinsky, who, at the end of the third-round
negotiation, has also expressed hope for a fourth round of talks. Ukrainian
negotiator Mykhailo Podolyak said on March 7, 2022 that, although the third-round
was able to make some headway on logistical issues related to local truces, setting
up of civilian corridors and civilian evacuation plan, by and large, “there are
no results that significantly improve the situation". Russia’s U.N. Ambassador Vassily Nebenzia on March 7, 2022 said that the local
truces would begin at 10AM on March 8, 2022.
Separately, Russian Defense Ministry on March 7, 2022 announced
opening up of six evacuation corridors. But what had piqued the Ukrainians was
that, out of six, three evacuation corridors would be destined to Russia and
one to Belarus. Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister Iryna Vereshchuk
responded to Russian Defense Ministry offer of six evacuation routes, including
three to Russia, as “unacceptable” and added that most of the evacuation
corridors should lead to western Ukraine and Eastern Europe. Ukrainian
President Volodymyr Zelensky was far more caustic, lambasting the Russian
offer “just cynicism, just propaganda” and reiterating his demand for “no-fly
zone” over Ukraine.
On ground, situation is turning worse by the hour as Russian bombardment,
shelling and airstrikes are hollowing out the entire neighborhoods, leading to
unprecedented catastrophe and the worst refugee crisis in Europe since World
War II. UNICEF Executive-Director Catherine Russel on March 7, 2022 gave
a grim update, saying that at least 1.7 million Ukrainians had fled the
country between February 24, 2022 and March 6, 2022. World
Health Organization estimated at least 14 attacks on Ukraine’s health care
facilities. The Black Sea port city of Odessa is bracing for Russian
assault as people were reported to be crossing the Irpin River, north of
Kyiv, using a fragile and unsafe bridge made of wooden slabs after the
main bridge had been destroyed in Russian attack.
Ukrainian President: Designate Russia a Terrorist State; U.S. Bans Russian
Oil Imports
On March 8, 2022, President Joe Biden announced a ban on Russian
oil and natural gas imports, hitting Russia on a key revenue source and
fulfilling the demand of Ukraine’s government and several western public
figures to cut off a chief funding source for Kremlin’s war machine. United
Kingdom followed suit with its own announcement to phase out Russian energy
imports by the end of 2022. The Russian energy import ban is likely to put
pressure on gas prices at the U.S. as it is already now costliest since 2008 in
several U.S. markets to fill a tank of gas and is likely to breach the past
records in days to come. In a break from U.S. ban on imports of Russian oil and natural gas, European
Union on March 8, 2022 took a much less ambitious action. Instead of
going for a ban on imports of Russian energy, European Commission on March
8, 2022 presented a plan to cut imports by two-third by the end of this
year.
Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky ratcheted up
his own rhetoric on March 8, 2022, calling the international community
to designate Russia a “terrorist state” as the number of refugees to Europe
swelled to 2 million plus and counting in the 13-day conflict (February
24, 2022 to March 8, 2022). Zelensky addressed the packed British
parliament in a video speech, saying that “we will continue fighting for our
land, whatever the cost”. As part of the western businesses’ continuing streak
of suspension of operations in Russia, the roster is getting longer by the day.
MasterCard, Visa, McDonald’s, Yum Brands and many business houses announced
either suspension of operations in, or exit from, Russia, compounding the financial
woes of millions of Russians.
On March 8, 2022, as per agreement reached in the third-round
negotiation between Russian and Ukrainian officials in Belarus, an
evacuation route has been opened and people are getting out of the northeastern
Ukrainian city of Sumy. However, another agreed-upon evacuation route at
the Azov port city of Mariupol came under Russian fire during the day. NATO
Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg warned Russia that firing intentionally on
civilians would constitute “war crimes”. Meanwhile, German federal prosecutors on
March 8, 2022 opened a war crimes investigation at a preliminary level.
Separately, Poland made a surprise announcement on March 8, 2022 that
it would like to send MiG-29, a Soviet-era warplane, fighter jets to Ukraine
to add to Kyiv’s defense arsenal. As part of the transfer process, Warsaw will fly
28 jets to Germany’s Ramstein Air Base, a U.S.-controlled sprawling air
base, to be later handed over to Kyiv. United States is strictly opposed to
this idea as it would add potential for a catastrophe in Ukraine.
Russian Airstrike Hits Hospital
A Russian airstrike on March 9, 2022 hit a maternity
hospital in the besieged port city of Mariupol, injuring at least 17
people. There was a large crater formed in the courtyard because of the
airstrike. The wailing of patients was heard across the hospital’s corridors. Ukrainian
President Volodymyr Zelensky called Russian airstrike on the maternity
hospital at Mariupol “beyond an atrocity” and called for more western
actions against Russia. Referring to the attack on the hospital, British
Prime Minister Boris Johnson condemned Putin’s criminal activities in
prosecuting the war on Ukraine. Two hospitals in Zhytomyr, a city of 260,000,
west of Kyiv sustained bombings too.
During the day, authorities announced new local truces to allow
civilians to evacuate towns around Kyiv, Enerhodar, Volnovakha, Sumy and
Izyum.
International Outrage Mounts over Hospital Strike
A day after Russian airstrike hit a maternity hospital at Mariupol,
outrage against Russia has increased all over the world on March 10, 2022.
U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris told a press conference on March 10, 2022 at
Warsaw, standing alongside Polish President Andrzej Duda, that the
airstrike against a maternity hospital a day ago constituted “an unprovoked,
unjustified war” by Russia. Vice President Kamala Harris is traveling in Poland
and Romania to show support for NATO. The iron-clad bond between the U.S. and
Poland has shown a little crevice as Poland’s March 8, 2022,
announcement to hand over MiG-29 planes to the U.S. for eventual
delivery to Ukraine shocked and surprised Washington, which remained opposed to
flying these MiG-29 warplanes in the Ukrainian airspace. Pentagon is
sending two Patriot missile batteries to Poland to shore up NATO’s eastern
flank.
After 15 days of conflict, Russia seems to have been stalled and mired
in a fierce Ukrainian resistance. The miles-long military convoy that had been
stalled north of Kyiv had broken itself down into several mini-convoys and
fanned out through the countryside and wooded areas to scour for launching sites
to strike Kyiv and its northern heartland. CIA Director William Burns
told the lawmakers on March 8, 2022 that Putin might “double-down” Russia’s
stranglehold on Ukraine, leading to more bloodshed, after getting stuck in the
fierce resistance. Meanwhile, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov met
his Ukrainian counterpart, Dmytro Kuleba, on March 10, 2022 in
Turkey to hold discussion aimed at finding a way to a broader truce, but the
talks yielded very little, if anything, towards finding out a way forward out
of the 15-day conflict (February 24, 2022 – March 10, 2022).
Biden administration on March 10, 2022 denied Russian allegation that the U.S. was
running biological weapons labs inside Ukraine. Director of National
Intelligence Avril Haines told the lawmakers on March 10, 2022 that
the allegations had no merit. White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki too said
that now since Russia had made this allegation and China had endorsed it, “we
should all be lookout” for another “false-flag” operation by Russia, this time
involving chemical or biological weapons.
U.S., G-7, EU Revoke Russia’s MFN Status
As the Russian invasion entered the 16th day on March 11,
2022, U.S., G-7 and European Union worked in sync and unison to revoke Russia’s
most favored nation, or MFN, status. President Joe Biden said
that the “free world is coming together” and would impose severe costs on
Russia.
Russia Strangulates Mariupol, Expands Offensive
Russia continued pounding Mariupol, the Azov Sea port city of 430,000 people, but increased the intensity and lethality on March 12, 2022. An ancient and historic mosque was struck by Russian airstrike, although the mosque-strike was disputed by other reports. More than 1,500 people are now dead in the Mariupol alone. Situation turned so bad in Mariupol that even bodies could not be collected from the streets and buried accordingly.
Russia Attacks in NATO’s Backyard; American Journalist Killed in Ukraine
On March 13, 2022, the Russian invasion of Ukraine took an
alarming turn as a series of missiles had hit a military facility in western
Ukraine, just 15 miles off the Polish borders and raising the potential of
accidentally triggering a much bloodier escalation involving a fellow NATO
member nation. The attack killed at least 35 people and injured 135
more. Russian Defense Ministry called the facility in the western
Ukrainian city of Yavoriv as weapons storage facility and a hosting
place for “foreign mercenaries”. A day earlier, March 12, 2022, Russia
warned that any foreign shipment of weapons to Ukraine would be a legitimate
military target. Pentagon spokesperson, John Kirby, said on March 13, 2022
that U.S. forces were at the International Security and Peace Center in Yovoriv
“several weeks ago” to train the Ukrainian military personnel.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said during the day that 125,000 people had
been evacuated through the humanitarian corridors, but Mariupol remained
a challenging place as evacuation corridor there was not secure. Geneva-based
International Committee of the Red Cross issued a statement, emphasizing the
need for safe passage of food, medicine and other relief supplies to the
besieged port city of Mariupol.
March 13, 2022 will be remembered a sad day in the world of journalism as an award-winning
American journalist, Brent Renaud, 50, has been shot to death in a
vehicle near a checkpoint in Irpin, a suburb of Kyiv. Renaud, also a
filmmaker, was on a mission to cover the conflict and record the stories of
common people in the midst of a bloody war.
Fourth Round of Talks Yield Little Progress, Zelensky to Address
Canadian, U.S. Lawmakers
The Associated Press quoted a Pentagon official that the barrage of missiles that had hit a
Ukrainian military facility, 15 miles from the NATO’s eastern flank, were fired
by Russian warplanes from the Russian airspace. The Russian airstrikes on International
Security and Peace Center in Yovoriv from the Russian airspace underline
the deficiency of any potential no-fly zone over the Ukrainian airspace. U.S.
is opposed to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s demand that NATO
impose a no-fly zone over the country’s airspace.
On March 14, 2022, high-level officials from Russia and Ukraine
held their fourth-round talks in quest for arriving at local truces that would
open several evacuation routes and relieve strangulating pressure that the port
city of Mariupol was particularly facing. The virtual talks did not
yield any breakthrough, though. Mykhailo Podolyak, a Ukrainian
presidential aide, tweeted later in the day that the negotiators would discuss “peace,
ceasefire, immediate withdrawal”. Russia’s ground offensives have stalled for
days, leading to incessant airstrikes that had been pulverizing cities and
towns across the country. Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will address
Canada’s parliament on March 15, 2022 and U.S. Congress on March 16,
2022.
Zelensky Sees a Little Flexibility in Russian Position
Call it a dose of irrational exuberance. Call it an overestimated assessment
of its bargaining stance with Russians. Call it an earlier than appropriate
timing to divulge meeting expectation. But, Ukrainian President Volodymyr
Zelensky on March 15, 2022 expressed hope as he had perceived
loosening of Russian demand after a second-day virtual session between Russian
and Ukrainian negotiators. In the midst of all, there has been no break from
Russia’s near-constant air assaults on city after city across Ukraine. About 20,000
people have been evacuated from the Azov Sea port city of Mariupol
through an evacuation route. The city of 430,000 sustained one of the most
punishing barrages of Russian air attacks.
As the waves of Ukrainian refugees fleeing the country crossed 3
million, marking the worst refugee crisis in Europe since World War II,
Zelensky on March 15, 2022 thanked the U.S. and President Joe Biden
for $13.6 billion in aid to his country. Addressing the Canadian parliament
on March 15, 2022, President Volodymyr Zelensky called once again
for immediate military aid to Kyiv to fight against Russia.
As its miles-long ground convoy has been stalled just
north of Kyiv and subsequently has broken itself up into several columns to fan
out throughout the surrounding areas, Russia is increasingly depending on its
long-range missile firepower to hit buildings and other targets in Kyiv.
Separately, in a historic trip, the prime ministers of Poland, Czech Republic and Slovenia on March 15, 2022 took an hours-long train ride to Kyiv and
met in-person with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, underlining the EU support for the besieged nation with the
most high-profile visit by the leaders of three EU member nations. Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki later tweeted about the session with Zelenskiy
"it is here, war-torn Kyiv, history is being made". The hours-long
overland journey undertaken by Morawiecki, Polish Deputy Premier Jaroslaw Kaczynski, Czech
Premier Petr Fiala and Slovenian Premier Janez Jansa marked the most defiance stand yet by western leaders against
the Russian aggression of Ukraine.
Zelensky Asks the U.S. to Do More in Address to
Congress
In the first-ever virtual address by a foreign leader to
a joint session of Congress, a T-shirt-wearing Volodymyr Zelensky on March
16, 2022 made an impassioned appeal for more help, drawing a moral
equivalence of the situation that his country was facing to the ones that the
U.S. had faced during Pearl Harbor and 9/11 attacks. As Kyiv and
other cities are being pounded by Russian artillery, missiles and bombs, a
spirited Zelensky has told the U.S lawmakers: “Friends, Ukraine is grateful to
the United States for its overwhelming support for everything that your
government and your people have done for us”. That the March 16, 2022,
historic Zelensky address has made an impactful resonance in the capital’s political
landscape has become very evident within hours as the White House has rolled
out a $800 million package for Ukraine that includes 800 new anti-aircraft
systems, 9,000 shoulder-mounted missiles, 7,000 small arms and
drones. President Joe Biden said afterwards that the package
represented “our commitment” to Ukraine and its people.
The 17-minute Zelensky address to the U.S.
Congress was laced with deeply personal tones and pleadings, trying to
connect with the American lawmakers and public in a deeply personal and
unprecedented way. He questioned: “Is this a lot to ask for—to create a no-fly
zone over Ukraine to save people?” Biden administration and many lawmakers from
both political parties are adamant that the “no-fly zone” over Ukraine will
trigger further escalation and unnecessarily put U.S. and NATO pilots at harm’s
way.
During the day, the march of destructions continued
across the ruined heartland of Ukraine, with Russian airstrikes and bombardment
pulverizing cities, ports, hospitals, theaters, schools and anything yet
standing on the ground. In Mariupol, a key target of Russian onslaught,
Russian airstrikes included an elegant theater building where many civilians
had sought for refuge. Parts of the building crumbled and many were reported
trapped under the rubble. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba
called the March 16, 2022, Russian attack on the Mariupol theater as another
“massive Russian attack”. Russian military on March 16, 2022 continued shelling
buildings and key targets in Kyiv, Chirnihiv, Odessa and other cities. Meanwhile,
the third-day of fourth-round talks was held between Russian and Ukrainian
negotiators, with little to no progress to show.
On the diplomatic front, the noose around Russia is
getting tighter as the Council of Europe on March 16, 2022 announced in
a statement that “the Russian Federation ceases to be a member of the Council
of Europe as from today”. Personnel, in a highly symbolical move, removed the
Russian flag from the front yard of the 47-nation organization’s
headquarters in Strasbourg. Separately,
International Court of Justice, also known as the World Court,
ordered Russia to stop attacks on Ukraine. Meanwhile, 30-nation NATO defense
ministers on March 16, 2022 met at Brussels to potentially discuss on
what NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg told reporters afterward a “new
security reality”, requiring a need “to reset our deterrence and defense”. The
defense ministers discussed on a potential boost of soldiers and weapons “on
land, at sea and in the air” to buttress the eastern flank of NATO on permanent
basis. They have emphasized on a funding formula that requires each member
nation to allocate at least 2% of the GDP to the defense budget.
On another notable step—although not tied to, but accelerated
by, the Russian invasion—the European grid operator, largest in the world, on March
16, 2022 tested out successfully the migration of Ukrainian and Moldovan
electric grids with the Continental European Power System. Since 2014
Crimea annexation, the grid operator, 39-nation ENTSO-E, is working on
weaning Ukraine and Moldova away from the dependence of Russia-operated
electric grid, Integrated Power System. Hopefully, the full-scale
migration will happen much sooner than the anticipated timeline.
U.S. Officials Call Russia’s Attacks on Civilians as War Crimes
A day after President Joe Biden, inadvertently
or intentionally, called his Russian counterpart a “war criminal”, U.S.
officials on March 17, 2022 called Kremlin’s indiscriminate shelling and
bombing of Ukrainian civilians as “war crimes”. U.S. Secretary of State
Anthony Blinken on March 17, 2022 said in the Washington D.C. that “intentionally
targeting civilians is a war crime”, and his department started to document such
incidents. Meanwhile, rescuers began pulling victims from underneath the rubble
of a theater building at Mariupol struck a day earlier by a Russian
airstrike. Although the death toll from
the March 16, 2022, airstrike of the theater building in Mariupol
is yet to be tallied, at least 130 survivors have rescued from the rubble as of
March 17, 2022. President Volodymyr Zelensky accused the Russians
of intentionally targeting the theater building. According to Mariupol
Deputy Mayor Sergei Orlov, not a single building in the city of 440,000
people is standing “undamaged".
In the northern city of Chernihiv, an airstrike
on civilians who formed a line to buy bread killed dozens. A U.S. citizen from
Minnesota, James Whitney Hill, was one of the dead in Russian airstrike
in Chernihiv. As Russia-Ukraine negotiation dragged for the fourth day,
stalemate appeared to be no closer to resolving than a day before. As 3
million-plus Ukrainians have fled the country to other European nations, a
gargantuan task awaits for international relief agencies.
Biden, Jinping Hold Virtual Summit on Ukraine Crisis; at least 6.5 million People Internally Displaced
President Joe Biden on March 18, 2022 asked Chinese President Xi Jinping not
to give any support to Russia as Kremlin was striking Ukrainian targets indiscriminately.
However, Xi lay the blame at the western nations’ and NATO’s footsteps, using a
Chinese proverbial sentence: “He who tied the bell to the tiger must take it
off”. The virtual summit between Xi and Biden lasted for about two hours. Biden
warned Xi of the consequences for any aid to Russia in the ongoing invasion of
Ukraine.
On March 18, 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin, wearing a turtleneck
sweater and a navy quilted jacket, strode about the stage at a stadium in
Moscow—waved and cheered by thousands of people—and marked the eighth anniversary
of Crimea’s annexation. He extolled Russia’s “Christian values” and
patriotism and likened the Ukrainian rulers and forces to Nazis.
On March 18, 2022, six U.N. Security Council members
issued a statement before a U.N. Security Council meeting, criticizing Kremlin
for misusing the U.N. Security Council platform to propagate lies. The
six nations—U.S., U.K., France, Albania, Ireland and Norway—issued a joint
statement prior to the meeting, saying that “these lies are designed for one
purpose, to deflect responsibility for Russia’s war of choice and humanitarian
catastrophe it has caused”. Russia called the U.N. Security Council meeting
for March 18, 2022 to discuss on a Russian proposal to ship aid to Ukraine
without any mention to Russia’s culpability. However, Russia canceled the
discussion prior to the session, and instead, wanted to have a discussion on
what Kremlin had recently accused the U.S. of: running a network of biological
weapons program labs inside Ukraine. The statement called the Russian
allegation related to biological weapons labs as a “false-flag effort in action”.
U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. Linda Thomas-Greenfield called Russia’s
proposed aid effort in Ukraine as “a cynical ploy”, and added that the she was
not surprised that “exculpatory resolution had failed”. Ambassador
Thomas-Greenfield meant to refer Russia’s proposed aid plan-related resolution
as an “exculpatory resolution”. Instead, Russia brought a resolution on biological
weapons labs in Ukraine. That resolution failed on March 18, 2022 as it
required at least nine yes votes and no veto from the permanent security
council member.
Meanwhile, U.N. issued a report on March 18, 2022, reflecting the
scale and severity of population displacement in a little over three weeks
since Russia had launched Ukraine invasion on February 24, 2022. In a
paper issued by the U.N. Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs
on March 18, 2022, the international body estimated that at least 6.5
million people had been internally displaced since the invasion had begun
on February 24, 2022. An additional 3 million people—and counting—had fled
the country to other European nations, making the refugee crisis Europe’s worst
since World War II. Separately, International Monetary Fund Managing
Director Kristalina Georgieva said on March 18, 2022 that the global
economy might suffer from the ongoing war in Ukraine.
On the ground, Russia had intensified air attacks on cities across Ukraine,
but on March 18, 2022, for the first time, Russian missiles landed on
the relatively safe city of Lviv in western Ukraine, about 40 miles from
the NATO member Poland’s borders. Russian missiles hit an aircraft maintenance
factory in Lviv.
Mariupol on the Verge of Falling to Russian Control; Dozens of Ukrainian
Marines Killed
In a strategic move to create a connecting land corridor
between Crimea and Donbas, Russia from the beginning of the
invasion has focused on seizing full control over Mariupol. After days
of pulverizing strikes and shelling, Russia on March 19, 2022 seems to
be closer than ever to seize the control of the city. However, the resistance
remains fierce too. The remaining residents of Mariupol are facing acute food,
medicine and other shortages. The electricity is out for most of the city in the
sub-freezing temperature. The Mariupol City Council on March 19, 2022
alleged the Russian military of forcefully relocating Mariupol residents to
Russia. Kyiv regional administration said on March 19, 2022 that the
capital’s ring suburbs of Bucha, Hostomel, Irpin and Moshchun were
attacked with constant barrage of airstrikes.
Separately, rescuers on March 19, 2022
continued to search for bodies at a Marine barrack a day after a Russian
missile had struck the facility on March 18, 2022 in Mykolaiv. At
least 40 Ukrainian Marines were reported to have been killed in the March
18, 2022, Russian missile strike. Meanwhile, Major General Igor
Konashenkov said on March 19, 2022 that Russia had carried out
strikes with hypersonic missiles, introducing a new degree of
uncertainty and increasing the degree of lethality. Kinzhal hypersonic
missiles, carried by the MiG-31 fighter jets and have a range of 1,250 miles
with 10 times speed of sound. U.S. intelligence has yet to confirm Russian Maj.
Gen. Konashenkov’s assertion that Moscow had used hypersonic missiles in
Ukraine.
In the midst of a brutal military campaign, Russian
and Ukrainian negotiators continued their talks, but with little progress to
make.
Ukraine Rejects Russian Demand for Disarming; Mariupol Art School
Attacked
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, though initially thought to be over in few
weeks, may have reached at a point of stalemate in the face of fierce
resistance by Ukrainian soldiers and armed volunteers. On March 20, 2022,
Russia carried out an airstrike on an art school at Mariupol, killing several
people and wounding many others. During the time of strike, scores of civilians
have taken refuge at the art school to save from Russia’s incessant
bombardment. Later in the day, Ukraine rejected Russia’s condition for a safe
passageway from Mariupol in exchange for Ukrainian fighters to lay down arms. Ukraine’s deputy premier, Irina Vereshchuk, said that there “can
be no talk of any surrender, laying down of arms".
Meanwhile, allegations are swirling that Russia has been carrying out
the forced removal from Mariupol to Russia. Ukrainian President Volodymyr
Zelensky said in his daily address that the terror being committed by Russia to
the “peaceful city” of Mariupol would go down as the worst ever perpetration
and “remembered for centuries to come”. The U.K. Defense Ministry on March 20,
2022 called out Russia’s effort to bog the Ukrainian army to the point of
collapse as a “strategy of attrition.
Mariupol at the Brink of Unprecedent Bloodshed; Bodies Removed from Arts
School Rubble
Rescuers on March 21, 2022 continued pulling bodies from the
rubble of the art school attacked a day earlier by Russia. At least 400 people
were reported to be sheltering in the art school. The twin attacks on a theater
and an art school in Mariupol are considered as prime cases for
future prosecution of war crimes. Over the weekend, Russia offered safe passage
from Mariupol if Ukrainian defenders laid down arms, but Ukrainian authorities
rejected the offer. Mariupol authorities said on March 15, 2022 that at
least 2,300 people had died of the siege. The vibrant port city of 430,000
people now has about 100,000 people, with no running water, electricity,
heat, food and basic necessities. European Union Foreign Policy Chief Josep
Borrell retorted that Kremlin was perpetrating “a massive war crime” in
Mariupol. International Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies President
Francisco Rocca on March 21, 2022 urged Russia to honor the Geneva
Convention and allow the relief supplies to enter Mariupol.
In the southern city of Kherson, now under the control of Russian
forces, civilians on March 21, 2022 gathered courage and came out on the
streets to protest against Russian occupation. Russian forces opened fire. President
Volodymyr Zelensky said during his daily evening address that Ukrainians
didn’t need to organize as the resistance ran through their blood. Russia
continued airstrikes on civilian targets in Kyiv, Sumy and other cities.
Meanwhile, on March 21, 2022, President Joe Biden warned American
people, companies and institutions against Russian cyberattacks and urged them
to have a careful lock on their digital doors. Biden administration’s top
cybersecurity expert, Anne Neuberger, expressed frustration that many
American companies had not divvied up with their cyber defense. The Cybersecurity
and Infrastructure Security Agency, or CISA, launched a “Shields Up”
campaign to help companies ramp up efforts to carry out data backup, implement
multifactor authentication and enhance digital hygiene.
Ukrainian Fighters Put up Stiff Resistance; Biden Warns a Desperate
Action by Putin
On March 22, 2022, Ukrainian soldiers and fighters had
counterattacked Russian forces in the outskirts of Kyiv and push them
out further, making a very visible battlefield gain. President Joe Biden on
March 22, 2022 said that Russian President Vladimir Putin’s back was
hit against a wall and he could, out of desperation, launch attack with
chemical or biological weapons or even worse. Earlier on March 22, 2022,
Ukrainian forces mounted counterattack on Russian forces in the Kyiv suburb
of Makariv and pushed them out. Meanwhile, Russia pounded Kyiv with barrage
of airstrikes and gunfire. Meanwhile, talks held remotely between Ukrainian and
Russian negotiators continued on March 22, 2022, but the negotiators failed
to break the logjam.
Biden, European Allies Stiffen Russia Sanctions
President Joe Biden traveled to Brussels on March 23, 2022 and met with European
leaders on March 24, 2022. Simultaneously, the White House announced on March
24, 2022 that U.S. would accept 100,000 Ukrainian refugees.
President Biden during the day attended a G-7 summit and a NATO summit. G-7 later
announced sanctions on more than 400 Russian individuals, including lawmakers,
and entities. President Biden, addressing the reporters at Brussels after the
G-7 and NATO summits, said that Putin was getting exactly the opposite what he
was expecting. He also said that U.S. supported the removal of Russia from G-20.
At the NATO summit, leaders of the 30 nations on March 24,
2022 approved a plan unveiled by NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg
a day earlier. Under the Stoltenberg Plan outline, four new battle
groups will be formed to bolster NATO’s eastern flanks in Romania, Bulgaria,
Hungary and Slovakia. NATO issued a joint statement, making it very
clear that any use of chemical or biological weapons would be absolutely “unacceptable".
Meanwhile, Ukraine’s ombudsman, Lyudmula Denisova, on March
24, 2022 said that Russian forces had forcibly taken more than 402,000
Ukrainians to Russia.
Russian General says that Kremlin’s Focus Will be the Donbas Region
A Russian army general, Maj. Gen. Sergei Rudskoi, deputy chief of
the Russian general staff, said at Moscow on March 25, 2022 that the
first phase of Russian operation was over and, going forward, Russia would
focus on Donbas region. A day earlier, Biden administration announced that
it would accept 100,000 Ukrainian refugees as well as $1 billion in new
humanitarian aid. President Biden also visited U.S. troops deployed in
Poland and ate pizza with the U.S. soldiers deployed in the Polish city of Rzeszow,
60 miles from Ukrainian border.
Biden Meets with Ukrainian Refugees in Poland, Says that Putin Cannot
Stay in Power
President Joe Biden on March 26, 2022 met with Ukrainian refugees at a Warsaw stadium
in Poland. In an unscripted speech, Biden said that Putin could not stay in
power.
White House Tries to Walk Back on Biden’s Putin Comments; Ukraine’s
President Rips West
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on March 27, 2022 called the western
nations coward, pressing the need for additional planes and tanks. He contrasted
the valorous resistance by Ukrainians in the port city of Mariupol with “cowardice”
delay that the western nations were making to decide “who and how should hand
over jets”. Meanwhile, administration officials are in full throttle on March
27, 2022 to walk back on the president’s comments and clarify what he meant
when, a day earlier, Biden, referring to Russian President Vladimir Putin,
said in Warsaw that “this man cannot remain in power”. Secretary of
State Anthony Blinken clarified on March 27, 2022 in Jerusalem
that the U.S. had absolutely no desire nor any strategy for “regime change” in
Moscow.
Separately, Ukraine’s head of military intelligence, Kyrylo Budanov,
said on March 27, 2022 that Russia was conspiring to bifurcate Ukraine
into two parts—Donbas to be controlled by Russia and the rest of Ukraine—similar
to a divided Korean Peninsula.
Ukraine’s Two-pronged Strategy: Endurance on Battlefront, Flexibility in
Talks
A day before the fifth-round negotiation is to begin in person at Istanbul,
two clear messages emerged from President Volodymyr Zelensky on March
28, 2022. In the regular nighttime video address to the nation, President
Zelensky emphasized on the battlefield endurance and brave resistance to
continue. Simultaneously, he expressed willingness for reasonable compromise on
his country’s neutrality, security guarantee and the status of Crimea. “We
still have to fight, we have to endure”, said Zelensky in the nightly video
address.
Meanwhile, under stiff Ukrainian resistance, Russian soldiers had retreated
on March 28, 2022 from the Kyiv suburb of Irpin and northeastern
city of Trostyanets. Russia late last week announced a battlefield strategic
shift by focusing on Donbas while scaling down troops from Kyiv and
other northern cities. President Zelensky called such plan a ruse and an
effort to “reposition” Russian troops. Fear has heightened that Ukraine can be
split into two: (1) Russian-speaking Donbas to be governed by pro-Russia
groups, and (2) Rest of Ukraine to be ruled by pro-western leaders.
Separately, U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees, or UNHCR, said
on March 28, 2022 that the total exodus from Ukraine reached 3.87
million, with 2.5 million accounting for the first two weeks and nearly
half of that in the second two-week period.
Russia Publicly Announces Significant Scale-back from Kyiv; Ukraine
Outlines Compromise
Russian and Ukrainian negotiators met in-person at Istanbul on March
29, 2022 where Ukrainian negotiators presented a framework that would
declare the nation “neutral” in exchange for seeking security guarantees from
an array of nations. The fifth-round talks that began on March 29,
2022 were expected to resume on March 30, 2022. As the talks were
ongoing in Istanbul on March 29, 2022, Russia’s deputy defense minister,
Alexander Fomin, announced in Moscow that Russia had decided to “cut
back military activity in the direction of Kyiv and Chernihiv” to “increase
mutual trust and create conditions for further negotiations”. Fomin’s
announcement was met with skepticism by the west and Ukrainian President
Volodymyr Zelensky, who said that Russia could not be trusted. Zelensky
also said that it’s Ukrainian bravery that had pushed out the Russian army. U.S.
President Joe Biden said that he would believe it when he would see. Secretary
of State Anthony Blinken went a step further, saying it might be a ruse to “deceive
people and deflect attention”. Ukraine’s delegation offered a detailed
framework aimed at reaching at a middle-ground with Russian negotiators. Under
its framework, Kyiv will declare itself “neutral” in exchange for seeking
security guarantees from an array of nations such as United States, Britain,
France, Turkey, China and Poland. The head of the Russian delegation, Vladimir
Medinsky, said that the Ukrainian proposal was a “step to meet us halfway, a
clearly positive fact".
Russian Scale-back not Visible Yet
What Russia calls as the cutting back of the “military activity in the
direction of Kyiv and Cherniihiv“ is now being interpreted in the west as a
calculated strategy of repositioning their troops to focus on the eastern Donbas
region. In a 55-minute video call with Ukrainian President Volodymyr
Zelensky, President Joe Biden on March 30, 2022 offered an
additional $500 million in direct aid to Kyiv. The regional governor, Viacheslav
Chaus, said during the day on a Telegram post that Russia, to contrary to
its announcement, increased shelling of Chernihiv. A British Defense
Ministry daily release on Ukraine said on March 30, 2022 that the recent
Russian announcement to “cut back” military activity around Kyiv was a tacit
admission that Russia’s war strategy was not going well under the brave
resistance of Ukrainians.
Biden Announces Record Amount of Oil Tapping from Strategic Reserve
President Joe Biden on March 31, 2022 announced that the nation would tap 1
million barrels per day for the next six months from the Strategic
Petroleum Reserve, marking the biggest withdrawal in the reserve’s 46-year
history. The move is aimed at offsetting the shortfall stemming from the ban of
Russian oil imports. President Biden called the “largest release of our
national reserve” as a “six-month bridge to the fall”. In a 14-minute speech,
President Biden called the war in Ukraine as “Putin’s war” and implored oil
companies to increase production as many of them were sitting idle on the federal
land leases. This is the third, but the largest, drawdown in a year from the Strategic
Petroleum Reserve. On November 23, 2021, Biden announced withdrawal
of 50 million barrels from the reserve in conjunction with the U.S.
allies to “address the mismatch” of supply and demand. In early March 2022,
U.S. announced release of 30 million barrels of oil from the Strategic
Petroleum Reserve.
Russia Hands over Chernobyl to Ukrainians
On March 31, 2022, Russian forces handed over to the Ukrainian
authorities the control of Chernobyl after reports had emerged that
Russian soldiers were exposed to traces of radiation in the surrounding
trenches. Russia seized Chernobyl in the first hours of invasion.
Meanwhile, the talks between Russia and Ukraine remained stalemated as Russia’s
public announcement of ceasing “military activity in the direction of Kyiv and
Chernihiv” was yet to play out on the ground. The regional governor for the
regions around Kyiv, Oleksandr Palviuk, said during the day that Russia,
contrary to its March 29, 2022, public announcement, continued attacking
towns such as Irpin, Bucha, Makariv and Hostomel in the outskirts
of Kyiv.
Meanwhile, Red Cross announced on March 31, 2022 that it was
sending relief supplies to besieged and devastated port city of Mariupol.
Ukraine’s deputy premier, Iryna Vereshchuk, said that 45 buses were
being sent to Mariupol to evacuate stranded civilians from the Azov Sea port
city.
Zelensky Warns Ukrainians on Boobytraps Left Behind by Departing
Russians
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky warned his people in a message on April 1,
2022 that the departing Russian soldiers had laid mines in the cities and
towns that they had occupied north of the capital. They even boobytrapped homes
and dead bodies. “They are mining the whole territories”, said Zelensky in the
nightly video address. As Russians began withdrawing troops from the north of
Kyiv and Chernihiv, Ukrainian forces mounted counterattacks and
liberated several cities and towns. Meanwhile, humanitarian crisis has mounted
in Mariupol as Russians obstructed the evacuation operation from the
Azov Sea port city for the second straight day on April 1, 2022.
Meanwhile, three Iskandar ballistic missiles were launched on
late April 1, 2022 from Crimean Peninsula towards Odessa,
according to the regional governor, Maksim Marchenko. Although the
targets of the ballistic missile attacks were critical infrastructures of
Odessa, they were not successful because of Ukraine’s missile defense shield.
Massacres
Committed in Bucha
As
Ukrainians returned to towns north of Kyiv that Russian troops had left behind,
they found the towns and cities destroyed, and what emerged in Bucha, north
of Kyiv, according to several media reports on April 3, 2022, was
nothing short of a “genocide”. People lay dead with face down on the streets
and hands tied behind the back. Evidence of mass burials. Evidence of rapes,
tortures and cold-blooded murders. As rescuers and Ukrainian authorities have described,
Bucha looks like a horror scene from a horror movie. Responding to the
allegation of a genocide, Russian Defense Ministry on April 3, 2022
issued a statement, saying that Bucha was “another production of the Kyiv
regime for the western media”. The Associated Press journalists saw the
trail of devastation in Bucha on April 3, 2022. Oleksiy Arestovych,
an adviser to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, on April 3,
2022 said that Kyiv suburbs of Irpin, Hostomel and Bucha
looked like the “scene from a horror movie". Describing the brutalities in Bucha, President Volodymyr Zelensky said on the CBS' Face the Nation on April 3, 2022 that "this is genocide".
U.S.
Secretary of State Anthony Blinken
said on April 3, 2022 on the CNN’s State of the Union that
the events in Bucha and other suburbs in north of Kyiv are a “punch to the gut”.
NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said that this was violence
against the civilians that Europe had not seen for long time. Kyiv Mayor
Vitali Klitschko on April 3, 2022 called on the outside world to
stop Russian gas imports. European Council President Charles Michel said
on Twitter that he had been shocked by the “haunting images” from the liberated
regions around Kyiv. Paolo Gentiloni, EU’s economic commissioner, said
that the 27-nation bloc was considering additional sets of sanctions. Even the
defense minister of Germany, hitherto a reluctant ally of the west against
Russia, was outraged by the scale of brutalities in the liberated regions north
of Kyiv. Defense Minister Christine Lambrecht said on April 3, 2022 on
German public broadcaster ARD that EU should consider stopping gas and oil
imports from Russia. Russia supplies 25% of Europe’s oil and 40% of Europe’s
gas.
Bucha
Butchery Attracts Worldwide Condemnation
As
bodies are retrieved from streets and mass burial sites in Bucha, world
leaders are appalled at the scale of gruesome massacre that had been
perpetrated by Russian forces. On April 4, 2022, President Joe Biden
in an unusually blunt term said of Vladimir Putin that “this guy is
brutal”. On March 17, 2022, President Joe Biden called Putin a “war
criminal” for the first time, but later clarified that he was speaking from his
heart. Six days later, U.S. formally accused Russia of war crimes and
said that it was collecting evidence. Addressing Romanian parliament on
April 4, 2022, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky described at length
the sheer amount of brutalities carried out in Bucha. Russia continued to deny
that its troops were behind any massacre. On April 4, 2022, both Germany
and France condemned the brutalities in Bucha and supported a new round of
sanctions on Russia, including oil and coal ban.
Zelensky
Lambasts U.N., Questions Its Existence
Ukrainian
President Volodymyr Zelensky in
a video address to the U.N. Security Council called on April 5, 2022
for a Nuremberg-type war commission to prosecute war crimes committed by
Russia in Bucha and beyond. In a risky strategy that excoriated the
august body while asking help from the very body, President Zelensky asked,
cryptically, “are you ready to close the U.N.?” Zelensky piled on, adding the
key institutions, including the U.N., “simply cannot work effectively”. Meanwhile,
France has opened three investigations of war crimes into the killing of French
citizens in Ukraine.
Mariupol
Deaths Estimated 5,000, Mayor Says; U.S. Sanctions Putin’s Daughters
As
Russia has withdrawn its troops from the north of Kyiv and focused on
capturing and controlling the Donbas region, the mayor of Mariupol on
April 6, 2022 has estimated the death toll at the devastated port
city on the Sea of Azov at more than 5,000. Mariupol Mayor
Vadym Boichenko’s grim estimate coincided with the completion of Russia’s
24,000 or so troops from the north of Kyiv region and Chernihiv and its
surrounding areas. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said during
his regular evening video address that Russia was preparing to attack and seize
areas in Donbas region which remained under the Ukrainian control.
On April
6, 2022, U.S. announced additional sanctions on Russia, targeting Putin’s
two adult daughters, Mariya Putina and Katerina Tikhonova. In
addition, White House imposed sanctions on two Russian banks: Alfa
Bank and Sberbank, two of the country’s largest financial
institutions.
Russia
Suspended from U.N. Human Rights Council
That
Russia is getting isolated by the day has become evident one more time as the U.N.
General Assembly on April 7, 2022 has voted to suspend Moscow from
47-nation U.N. Human Rights Council. The Geneva-based body is plagued with
controversy from its birth in 2006. The vote was 93-24 with 58
abstentions.
Missile
Strike on Train Station Kills 52
An
alleged Russian missile struck a crowded train station at Kramatorsk in
Ukrainian-controlled Donbas region on April 8, 2022, killing 52
people. Residents have flocked to the train station to get out of Donbas
region, heeding the recent calls from Ukrainian authorities to evacuate the
eastern industrial region as Russia had repositioned its army to launch military
attacks in order to consolidate and expand its hold over the region. The
governor of the Ukrainian-controlled Donetsk region, Pavlo Kyrylenko,
said many more had been injured in the missile strike. Kramatorsk Mayor
Oleksandr Goncharenko said that many of the wounded lost limbs. President
Volodymyr Zelensky said in his nightly video address that authorities would
establish “every minute of who did what” to bring the perpetrators to justice.
Russia, as usual, denied the attack on the train station. U.S. President Joe
Biden, U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres and other world leaders
condemned missile strike on the train station.
“Whole
European Project is a Target for Russia” as Kyiv Bolsters Defense; New Russian
General Named
The
Ukrainian army on April 10, 2022 ramped up the defensive posture in the
eastern flank in anticipation of impending Russian military campaign in Donbas.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in the regular nightly video
address implored that the “whole European project is a target for Russia”. As
part of the strategic pivot aimed at seizing the entire Donbas, Russian
army convoy is heading to the strategic town of Izyum, south of Donbas.
The satellite-based imagery and data services firm Maxar Technology said on
April 10, 2022 that its images had tracked an eight-mile long Russian
convoy approaching Izyum.
Meanwhile,
in a significant military move on April 10, 2022, President Vladimir
Putin named a hardened military general who had earned disrepute for his
scorched-earth campaign in Syria to head the military campaign in Ukraine as Russia
repivoted its entire military strategy on seizing and controlling the Donbas
region. U.S. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said on CNN that
the appointment of Gen. Alexander Dvornikov might signify a new level of
brutality in Russia’s military campaign in Donbas and accused the 60-year-old
general of committing gross human rights abuses in Syria.
Ukrainian
Forces in Mariupol Sounds Alarm
A
Ukrainian Marine brigade which had been putting up a gallant resistance to save
Mariupol from falling into the hands of Russian army put an alarming
message on Facebook on April 11, 2022 that indicated that the Azov port city
was about to fall. The brigade also blamed Ukrainian military higher-ups for
not supporting the brigade enough. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on
April 11, 2022 said that the city of Mariupol had been destroyed. During
the day, Austrian Chancellor Karl Nehammer met with Russian President
Vladimir Putin and pressed for ending the conflict as two-thirds of Ukraine’s
children, according to the UNICEF, had been either internally or
externally displaced. The World Bank issued a dire prognostication on April
11, 2022 that the economy of Ukraine would shrink 45% this year.
Four
European Leaders Visit Kyiv; ICC Chief Prosecutor Visits Bucha
In
a show of support for Ukraine and its resistance against Russian invasion, presidents
of three Baltic states and a former Soviet-allied nation visited Kyiv on April
13, 2022 and met with their Ukrainian counterpart, Volodymyr Zelensky, in a
highly symbolic diplomatic move that sent a message of solidarity to Kremlin. President
Andrzej Duda of Poland, Estonian President Alar Karis, Latvian President Egils
Levits and Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda took a train trip to Kyiv
from Poland. They met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky at an
ornate room in Kyiv’s Mariinsky Palace. The five presidents’ unified
stand reinforced the diplomatic resistance and resilience of the world
community in general and western nations in particular.
Also,
on April 13, 2022, International Criminal Court Chief Prosecutor
Karim Khan visited Bucha on an investigation trip alongside Ukrainian
Prosecutor General Iryna Venediktova. Nearly 400 bodies were recovered from
burial sites in Bucha, representing an unprecedented massacre committed by the
departing Russian troops.
Biden
Calls Russian Campaign in Ukraine a “Genocide”, Pumps $800 million in
Additional Aid
A
day after calling Russian campaign in Ukraine a “genocide”, strongest term ever
used by any western leader as of date against Russian campaign in Ukraine, President
Joe Biden on April 13, 2022 announced new aid of $800 million to
Ukraine.
Russian
Flagship Sinks after Getting Hit by Ukrainian Missile; Oligarch Arrested
Hours
after being hit by a Neptune missile, allegedly fired by Ukraine
overnight, Russian Black Sea flagship Moskva sank on April 14, 2022 as
it was being towed to the port, dealing an immense setback to Kremlin’s pride
and a precious naval asset. Russia said that all of its 510 crews were
evacuated, but denied that Moskva had been hit by a missile. Kremlin
said that the vessel was caught fire because of an explosion.
Meanwhile,
one of the richest Ukrainian oligarchs, who happens to be close to Russian
President Vladimir Putin, has been detained on April 14, 2022 after
he has escaped his house arrest. In addition to detaining Viktor
Medvedchuk, Ukrainian authorities seized his other assets such as 30 plots
of lands, 23 houses, 32 apartments, 26 cars and one yacht.
Mariupol
Defenders Reject Russian Deadline
Ukrainian
soldiers and other defenders of Mariupol on April 17, 2022 ignored
a Russian ultimatum to surrender or getting annihilated, pointing to a bloody
battle ahead. As the rest of the Azov Sea port city lay destroyed and deserted,
resistance has been fortified around a sprawling steel factory at the seafront
that has become the symbol of Ukrainian resistance.
Russia
Launches Military Assault in Donbas
Russian
military on April 18, 2022 launched the long-waited, much-anticipated
military campaign in Ukraine’s eastern industrial heartland of Donbas.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said in the nightly video address
that Russian forces had begun the military operation in Donbas. Russian
troops are asserting to break the fierce resistance of Ukrainian forces in a
wide swath of Kharkiv, Donetsk and Luhansk, according to the
secretary of Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council, Oleksiy
Danilov. Meanwhile, missile strikes on the western city of Lviv
killed seven people on April 18, 2022. In Mariupol, a do-an-die battle
is intensifying in and around Azovstal Iron and Steel Works, a sprawling
industrial complex on the city’s waterfront and a major employer of the port
city before Russian invasion. The resistance in Azovstal is being put up by
fearsome Azov Battalion, a nationalist military unit itself ensnared by
rights allegation. Separately, United Nations on April 18, 2022
issued an alarming estimate of 5 million Ukrainians who had fled the
nation since Russia had launched the invasion of Ukraine on February 24,
2022.
Russian
Army Push to Seize Donbas; Yellen Calls for Food Security at IMF, World Bank
Meet
A
day after formally launching the offensive in Donbas, opening the new
phase of Russian invasion of Ukraine after failing to seize Kyiv and
surrounding regions, Russian army on April 19, 2022 fought to penetrate the
stiff Ukrainian resistance across a vast swath of Donbas. Far away, in
Washington D.C., U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen met with officials
from IMF and World Bank on April 19, 2022 to formulate a
plan to strengthen worldwide food security that’s sorely needed to mitigate the
twin curses of food scarcity stemming from, among others, war in Ukraine that has
reduced imports of wheat, barley, corn and many other agricultural commodities from
the Black Sea breadbasket regions in Ukraine and Russia as well as surging
global . World Bank President David Malpass said that his organization
would provide $17 billion per year to bolster food security.
Russia
Hands a Draft Proposal to Kyiv, Ukrainian Commander in Mariupol Calls for Help
Russia
on April 20, 2022 intensified its push in Donbas region as part
of an effort to assert wider control over the eastern industrial region as well
as to create an integrated land corridor linking Crimea and Donbas through
Mariupol. During the day, Russia handed Ukraine a draft proposal to end the
war. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, without divulging what was contained
in the draft, added that the ball was now in Kyiv’s court.
Meanwhile,
reflecting the dire situation prevailing in the port city of Mariupol, a
Ukrainian commander appealed for world to help as his “guys are dying”. The
last-ditch resistance in Mariupol is centered around Azovstal
Iron and Steel Works,
and thousands of civilians and fighters are holed up and buttoned down at its
sprawling buildings and winding tunnels. Ukrainian Major Serhiy Volyna with
the 36th Separate Marine Brigade appealed to the world in an
audio message shared with The Washington Post on April 20, 2022 that, “while
the world is asleep”, his fighters “are suffering losses".
Russia
Test-fires Ballistic Missile amidst the War in Ukraine
As
Russia is tightening the noose around Mariupol and intensifying its
offensive in Donbas, Moscow on April 20, 2022 has carried out a
successful test-launch of a new type of Intercontinental Ballistic Missile,
Sarmat. After conducting the test, Russian President Vladimir Putin
boasted its capability to eschew western missile defense, and added that Russia’s
enemy would “think twice” before thinking of harming Russia. Putin called the April
20, 2022, successful test of Sarmat as a gift to NATO.
Ukrainians
Require Sponsorship
As
Biden administration is facing criticism for exempting Ukrainian migrants from Title
42 removal process at the southern border, the Department of Homeland
Security on April 21, 2022 changed the rules to take in the Ukrainian
refugees. Under the new rule, Ukrainians need a sponsor in the United States to
enter the U.S. The new rule will be effective April 25, 2022. DHS will
begin applying the Title 42 against Ukrainians who will show up at the border
without sponsorship. However, Title 42 itself will be lifted on May
23, 2022 pending litigation. The sponsorship under the Uniting for
Ukraine program is expected to attract tens of thousands, if not hundreds
of thousands, of American families to open their doors and homes for Ukrainians.
Biden
Sends an Additional $800 million Defense Package to Ukraine; 7.7
million Internally Displaced
Days
after the U.S. has delivered a $800 million defense package to Ukraine, President
Joe Biden on April 21, 2022 announced a second tranche of $800
million in defense aid. The latest aid brings the total defense aid to
Ukraine to $3.4 billion since the war has erupted on February 24,
2022. The latest aid will include dozens of Howitzers and 144,000 rounds of
ammunition. In addition, Washington will send, President Joe Biden has said
on April 21, 2022, an additional $500 million in humanitarian aid to
Ukraine.
Meanwhile,
the International Organization for Migration, or IOM, said on April
21, 2022 that, in the first 17 days of April 2022, at least 600,000
Ukrainians had been displaced internally, raising the total internal
displacements to 7.7 million. The IOM estimate came a day after the U.N.
refugee agency said that more than 5 million people had left Ukraine since the
war had begun on February 24, 2022.
Russia
Sends Reinforcements to Donbas
Having
a bird’s eye on Ukraine’s eastern industrial heartland of Donbas, Russia
on April 22, 2022 sent some of its military crack units from Mariupol
to Donbas. During the day, Russia acknowledged casualties in Moskva
explosion, stating for the first time that one sailor had been killed and 27
remained missing. Moskva sank in the Black Sea on April 14,
2022 as it was being towed to a port after being engulfed in a fire,
allegedly by a missile strike, or might be by a pair of strikes, which Russia
had vehemently denied.
Meanwhile,
talks remained stalled as Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov on April
22, 2022 said that Moscow was yet to hear back from Kyiv on its last
draft proposal that it had handed over to Ukraine two days ago. What is contained
in the draft is not known to anyone. Putin’s chief negotiator in those talks, Vladimir
Medinsky, said on April 22, 2022 that he had held discussion during
the day with his Ukrainian counterpart, but nothing concrete came out. On April
22, 2022, Maxar Technologies has released satellite-based photos
that show the second mass grave in the Mariupol region.
Bold
Visit by Blinken, Austin to Kyiv Bolsters Zelensky
Although
the U.S. tried to keep it secret, but Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky
spilled the bin on April 23, 2022 that the U.S. defense and state
secretaries would be visiting Ukraine the next day, violating the protocol of
secrecy for a high-ranking U.S. government official to visit a war zone. On April
24, 2022, Secretary Anthony Blinken and Secretary Lloyd Austin arrived at
Kyiv in train from Poland, and met with President Zelensky, sending a clear
message to Kremlin and the world of an unshakable determination of the western
world in general, and the U.S. in particular, to protect the sovereignty of
Ukraine. Meanwhile, in his regular nightly video address, Zelensky accused
Russia of orchestrating massacres in Mariupol and then trying to cover
it up.
Veteran
Diplomat Named Envoy in Ukraine
Biden
administration on April 25, 2022 named Bridget Brink as the new U.S. ambassador
to Ukraine.
Austin
Convenes a Conference to Arm Ukraine; IAEA Chief Condemns Chernobyl Siege
Two
days after he—along with U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken—made a
historic trip to Kyiv to meet with Ukraine’s president, Defense Secretary
Lloyd Austin on April 26, 2022 convened a meeting of officials from
at least 40 nations at the U.S.-operated Ramstein Air Base in Germany and
called for the nations to collectively move “heaven and earth” to supply arms
to Ukraine to defend itself against the aggressor Russia. Austin added: “this
gathering reflects the galvanized world” in a unified response to rally behind
Kyiv.
Meanwhile,
IAEA Director-General Rafael Mariano Grossi on April 26, 2022 visited Chernobyl
to have an in-person walk-through of the nuclear plant days after Russia
had withdrawn its forces from there and handed the plant to Ukrainian
authorities. Grossi condemned days-long Russian siege of Chernobyl as very
dangerous. Standing under an umbrella as it was raining outside, Grossi,
though, said that the radiation level was normal and there was no immediate
concern.
Russia
Cuts Gas Exports to Poland and Romania
Russia
on April 26, 2022 threatened Poland and Bulgaria to end gas
supplies from Gazprom, and carried out the threat by suspending the gas flow
effective April 27, 2022. Although the move inconveniences the former allies
of Moscow—but now EU and NATO member nations—it will also cut off Russia from a
reliable source of revenue and, thus, straining Kremlin’s war funding effort.
Meanwhile,
on the battle front, Russia was mired in a slog along a 300-mile region in
Donbas amidst Russian strikes in Kharkiv and other cities. There were reported
explosions in at least three ammunition and military depots in Russia during
the day, raising the specter of either a sabotage or Ukrainian attacks.
IAEA
Chief: “Red Light Blinking”
IAEA
Director-General Rafael Mariano Grossi
said at Kyiv on April 27, 2022 that there was looming danger at the
largest nuclear power plant in Europe as it, now under Russian control,
required an immediate repair and maintenance work. Grossi asked help from both
Ukraine and Russia for international inspectors and observers to get free access
to Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant. Grossi also said that, for Zaporizhzhia plant,
the “red light is now blinking".
U.N.
Presses to Evacuate Civilians from Steel Plant at Mariupol
On April
29, 2022, as Azovstal Iron and Steel Works plant stood as the only
place in Mariupol not under Russian control, the U.N. worked feverishly
to evacuate about 1,000 or so civilians who had taken refuge at the
sprawling facility on the Sea of Azov. Mariupol Mayor Vadym Boichenko
said on April 29, 2022 that it’s a matter of hours that had been left
between life and death for many folks holed up in the plant. Ukrainian
authorities, meanwhile, accused Russia of conducting missile strike on Kyiv
as the U.N. head was wrapping up his visit. On April 28, 2022, hours
after U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres addressed a joint press
conference with President Volodymyr Zelensky, Russian missile strike had
hit Kyiv. In that missile strike, a reporter with the U.S.-funded Radio
Free Europe/Radio Liberty—Vira Hyrych—had been killed.
Pelosi
Visits Kyiv; Mariupol Evacuation Begins; Congress to Work on Biden’s Ukraine
Package
House
Speaker Nancy Pelosi led
a Democratic House delegation to meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr
Zelensky on April 30, 2022. The visit was kept under the wrap until the
delegation returned to Poland safely. On May 1, 2022, the video of
Pelosi greeting Zelensky on a Kyiv street went viral. Meanwhile, on May 1,
2022, the first batch of 100 civilians, mostly women and children, were evacuated
from the Azovstal Iron and Steel Works plant and taken to the
government-controlled city of Zaporizhzhia in a bus. The sprawling steel
plant built during the Soviet era is the only place in Mariupol not
under the Russian control. Speaker Nancy Pelosi said in Poland on May
1, 2022 that Congress would soon work on Biden’s new $33 billion package
for Ukraine. President Joe Biden sent the $33 billion package to Congress on
April 28, 2022. Goading Congress to pass his package, President Biden added
on April 28, 2022 that the “cost of this fight is not cheap, but caving
to aggression is going to be more costly”. The $33 billion Ukrainian
package includes (1) $20 billion in military assistance, (2) $8.5 billion in
economic assistance and (3) $3 billion in humanitarian aid. The fate of
Ukrainian aid package has become uncertain as it is bundled with a $20
billion COVID funding package. GOP wants these two packages to be
separated. A standalone $10 billion COVID package was passed by the
House, but it was stalled in the Senate over GOP’s resistance to Biden
administration’s decision to lift Title 42 that had been imposed in
March 2020 by the CDC and used more than 1.7 million times to expel undocumented
migrants.
Mariupol
Attack Resumes; Ukraine’s President Says 220 Children Killed
A
day after evacuating about 100 elderly women, mothers and kids to transport
them to the government-controlled city of Zaphorizhzhia at the behest of
Red Cross and the U.N., Ukrainian authorities on May 2, 2022 complained
that Russia had resumed attacking the Azovstal Iron and Steel Works plant.
Mariupol Deputy Mayor Sergei Orlov
said to BBC that the evacuation process for the remaining civilians holed up
inside the sprawling steel plant was not complete when Russia had relaunched
attack on the plant. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said during
his regular address that at least 220 Ukrainian children had been killed since
Russia’s invasion began on February 24, 2022. The Black Sea port city of
Odessa has sustained a Russian missile strike on May 2, 2022, according
to the region’s governor, Makchym Marchenko.
Steel
Plant Under Serious Assault; Train Stations Hit by Russian Strikes
On May
3, 2022, Russia intensified attacks on Azovstal Iron and Steel Works
plant from air, ground and sea despite only 125 or so civilians had been
evacuated from the sprawling facility on May 1, 2022 and subsequently
transported to Zaphorizhzhia. There were still more than 800 civilians
sheltering in the facility. Meanwhile, Russia continued striking cities and
towns across Ukraine. At least six rail stations were struck on May 3, 2022.
50
More Evacuated from Steel Mill; Amnesty International Calls for Justice
On May
6, 2022, 50 additional people—mostly elderly and women—were evacuated
from the Azovstal Iron and Steel Works facility as the last redoubt of
resistance in Mariupol was about to fall. Meanwhile, Amnesty International
Secretary-General Agnes Callamard said in a statement on May 6, 2022
that war crimes had been committed by Russian army in Bucha and other surrounding
regions in and around Kyiv. Callamard called for all those responsible,
including “up the chain of command” to be “brought to justice” because of “pattern
of crimes committed by the Russian forces” that included “unlawful attacks and
willful killing".
Last
of Civilians Evacuated from Sprawling Steel Plant
On May
7, 2022, Ukrainian authorities said that the last of civilians had been
brought out of Azovstal Iron and Steel Works at Mariupol. Now, it’s a
matter of hours that Russian army will conquer the last remaining place of
resistance in the port city on the Sea of Azov, paving the way for Russian
President Vladimir Putin to make a triumphant lap to mark the 77th
Victory Day on May 9, 2022. Russian forces meanwhile fired missiles to
strike targets in Odessa. Russia now wants to open a corridor along the
Black Sea, many observers believe, to connect Crimean Peninsula with the
secessionist Transnistria region in Moldova, where thousands of Russian
soldiers are now stationed.
Jill
Biden Visits Ukraine; Russian Bomb Kills 60 at School Shelter
In
one of the grimmest bombings that would make even other grisly attacks pale, Russian
army on May 8, 2022 flattened a school in eastern Ukraine. The school in
the village of Bilohorivka was sheltering about 90 people during the
time of the attack, and at least 60 of them were feared dead. U.N.
Secretary-General Antonin Guterres was “appalled” by the attack, and said
hours after the school bombing that it’s “the civilians who pay the highest
price in the war”. Meanwhile, Russian army is facing dogged resistance in its
complete conquest of the Azovstal Iron and Steel Works plant, the only
place in Mariupol that still remained out Russia’s control.
In another
highlight of reposing U.S. faith in Ukrainian people’s freedom to choose their
own destiny, U.S. First Lady Jill Biden on May 8, 2022 made an
unannounced visit to Kyiv to meet her Ukrainian counterpart Olena Zelenska.
The venue of the meeting was apt: in front of a school and on the Mother’s Day.
Also, during the day, U2’s Bono performed at a Kyiv subway stop.
Russia Fires Hypersonic Missile; Ukraine Asks Help on Moscow’s Black Sea
Blockade
As part of a strategy to have a contiguous link along the Black Sea, according
to many western political analysts, Russia seems to be trying hard to conquer Odessa
and the coastal area between the Black Sea port city and Crimea
that Russia had annexed in 2014 to have a safe corridor under Russian control
from as far as Donbas to Crimea through Mariupol to Transnistria region of
Moldova via Odessa. To achieve that broader strategy of regional contiguity,
Russia is pounding southern coastal area along with the eastern industrial
heartland of Donbas. On May 10, 2022, Russia launched hypersonic missile
attack on Odessa. The attack involved three Kinzhal hypersonic
missiles.
Meanwhile, the Ukrainian government called for international help to remove
the Russian naval blockade of the Black Sea, a key route for grain and agricultural
shipment from the Black Sea breadbasket that included the fertile region of
southern Ukraine to Europe and beyond. Ukraine admonished the world of a
looming food crisis if the blockade continued for long.
German Foreign Minister Visits Bucha; Vows to Hold Perpetrators
Accountable
German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock on May 10, 2022 visited the
epicenter of Russian massacre in Ukraine, Bucha, and pledged to “hold
perpetrators to account” for the “worst crimes imaginable".
Rights Group Accuses Russia of Using Cluster Bombs
Human Rights Watch on May 11, 2022, issuing a report on Russian invasion of Ukraine,
said that Russia had used multiple times cluster bombs on Ukrainian targets,
killing scores of people. Cluster bombs are banned under the 2008 Convention
on Cluster Munitions, but neither Russia nor Ukraine is signatory to the treaty.
Cluster bombs or bomblets are often used by leveraging missiles as
carriers. Mary Wareham, the arms advocacy director of the New York-based
Human Rights Watch and author of the report, said that “Ukraine should
also stop using these brutal” weapons, implying that Kyiv might have also used
cluster munitions.
Putin Extends Support for Breakaway Luhansk’s Leader; Bridge Destroyed
by Ukrainians
On May 12, 2022, Russia carried out ferocious bombing along a
300-mile corridor in Eastern Ukraine. Russian President Vladimir Putin on
May 12, 2022 pledged to provide all support to Russia-allied breakaway region Luhansk People’s Republic’s separatist leader Leonid Pasechnik.
Meanwhile, on May 12, 2022, Ukrainian fighters destroyed a key
bridge on the Siversky Donets River, drowning dozens of armor vehicles
and personnel. The bridge is located in the Donbas village of Bilohorivka
in Luhansk.
*********** FIRST WAR CRIMES TRIAL OF A CAPTURED RUSSIAN SOLDIER
First War Crimes Trial for a Captured Russian Soldier
Ukraine on May 13, 2022 launched the first-ever war crimes trial
for a Russian soldier captured in the battlefield. 21-year-old Russian Army
Sergeant Vadim Shyshimarin was accused of deliberately killing a 62-year-old
man without any provocation in the village of Chupakhivka in northeastern
Ukraine during the opening days of the conflict. Scores of cameras and
international journalists were present on May 13, 2022 at the Solomyanskyy
District Court in Kyiv. Ukraine formed the charges in consultation with
international legal experts.
First War Crimes Trial: Russian Soldier Apologizes to Victim’s Family
Sgt. Vadim Shyshimarin, who had pleaded guilty earlier in the week, on
May 19, 2022 testified at a Kyiv court and said that he had opened the
fire on the order of a superior, killing 62-year-old Oleksandr Shelipov.
Sgt. Shyshimarin apologized to Shelipov’s family members.
*********** FIRST WAR CRIMES TRIAL OF A CAPTURED RUSSIAN SOLDIER
Ukraine Pushes out Russian Army in Kharkiv, Wins Eurovision Contest
In a resilient and rigorous counteroffensive, Ukrainian forces on May
15, 2022 launched a counteroffensive in the Kharkiv region and
pushed out the Russian army towards the border, according to Kharkiv
Governor Oleh Sinegubov. On May 15, 2022, NATO diplomats met at
Berlin where there was unanimity that the war was not going according to Russia’s
plan as the conflict entered the third month. NATO Secretary-General Jens
Stoltenberg was even more bullish on the war’s outcome, stressing that
Ukraine could win the war. Despite Russia’s multiple setbacks, it continued to strike
towns and cities in the Donbas region and as far as Lviv.
Meanwhile, in an uplifting of a collective Ukrainian spirit, a Ukrainian
band, Kalush Orchestra, on May 15, 2022 won the Eurovision
Song Contest. This has become a source of inspiration and joy for millions
of Ukrainians across the world.
****************** NATO MEMBERSHIP FOR SWEDEN AND FINLAND
Turkey Opposes NATO Membership for Finland, Sweden
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on May 13, 2022 expressed his strong opposition to any potential new membership to be accorded to Sweden and Finland. Erdogan blasted the Nordic nations for hosting Turkish opposition groups who were intent on supporting Kurdish insurgency.
Finland, Sweden Seeks NATO Membership, Begin the Internal Process
On May 15, 2022, Finnish President Sauli Niinisto and Finnish
Prime Minister Sanna Marin said at a joint news conference in the Presidential
Palace in Helsinki that the Nordic country, nonaligned heretofore, would
seek the NATO membership. Calling it a “historic day”, Finnish President
Sauli Niinisto said on May 15, 2022 that “a new era begins”. Finnish
parliament is likely to approve in the coming days the country’s push to join
NATO, and soon after that, the formal application process will ensue.
Also, on May 15, 2022, Sweden inched forward with its goal to
seek NATO membership as the ruling Social Democratic Party endorsed
Stockholm’s bid to join the powerful western military alliance. Sweden’s
parliament will vote on the measure on May 16, 2022 and the cabinet of Prime
Minister Magdalena Andersson is likely to put a stamp of approval on the
Nordic nation’s bid to join the NATO. Sweden has pursued a non-aligned
strategy over the past two centuries.
Turkey Opposes NATO Expansion
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on May 16, 2022 doubled down on what
he had stated openly three days ago against Sweden’s and Finland’s effort to join
NATO, reiterating that Ankara stood opposed to the entry endeavor by the two
Nordic nations as they did not have “open, clear stance against terrorist
organizations”, referring to Kurdish militant groups, including Kurdistan
Workers Party, or PKK. NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg stated
over the weekend (May 13-15, 2022) that NATO would welcome Finland and
Sweden with “open arms”. To many, Erdogan’s so vociferous opposition to NATO
bids by Sweden and Finland struck as a surprise as one of them, Swedish
Ambassador to the U.S. Karin Olofsdotter, said on May 16, 2022 that “we
have a very strong anti-terrorist agenda”.
Sweden, Finland Make Bids to Join NATO Official
On May 17, 2022, Sweden and Finland have completed internal milestones
to take the endeavor of joining the NATO a step forward. On May 17,
2022, Finnish parliament voted 188-8 to rubber-stamp the government
proposal to join NATO. On May 18, 2022, foreign ministers of
Finland and Sweden will travel to Brussels to hand over letters, seeking the NATO
membership. However, their joining process has encountered significant
roadblock as Turkey is vehemently opposed to their getting the membership of the
security alliance.
NATO Expansion Talks Stalled
As Finland and Sweden submitted applications to join NATO,
the security alliance’s top officials in Brussels are at a stalemate on May
18, 2022 over the Turkish objection to the Nordic nations’ bid. Meanwhile, Turkish
Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu was in New York on May 18, 2022
and met with U.S. State Secretary Anthony Blinken at the U.N. Although
Cavusoglu, in general, agreed to NATO’s “open door” policy, he reiterated President
Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s stance on “terrorism” that raised question about
Finnish and Swedish determination to fight against Kurdish terrorist outfits.
Hungary Drags Voting on NATO Membership for Sweden, Finland
On March 2, 2023, Hungary said that it would delay taking action
on NATO membership application by Sweden and Finland to the parliamentary
session scheduled to begin on March 20, 2023. 28 out of 30 NATO member nations
already voted for accepting Finland and Sweden into the western defense
alliance. The only other NATO nation still holding off the approval is Turkey.
Turkey to Ratify Finnish Membership of NATO
Finland on March 17, 2023 moved a step forward toward joining 30-member North
Atlantic Treaty Organization as Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan
said at Ankara after a meeting with visiting Finnish President Sauli Niinisto
that Turkish parliament would soon hold a ratification vote on Finland’s
application to join the western military alliance. The ratification vote will
likely to be held before the May 14, 2023, parliamentary and
presidential elections. With Erdogan loyalists to be in control of Turkish
parliament, Finland is highly likely to win the vote of confidence from Turkish
lawmakers.
Sweden Expresses Frustration over Turkish Blockade on NATO Membership
A day after Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced a
go-forward plan for a Finnish bid to join NATO by pushing a parliamentary vote [on
accession], Sweden on March 18, 2023 said that it would continue
pursuing its bid and trying to persuade Turkey to hold a parliamentary
ratification vote for its membership. Swedish Foreign Minister Tobias
Billstrom said at Stockholm on March 18, 2023 that the largest
Nordic nation had done its part of a trilateral memorandum that Finland,
Turkey and Sweden had signed in June 2022. However, Turkey does not see that
way as far as Sweden’s commitment to the trilateral memorandum is
concerned as Erdogan has on March 17, 2023 pointed out that “Sweden has
opened its arms to terrorists”, referring to Kurdish separatists".
Finland Inches toward Joining NATO
A huge weight is now lifted off the shoulder of Finland as the Nordic
nation on March 27, 2023 has won the parliamentary approval from Hungary.
Hungarian parliament postponed votes on Finnish accession to NATO several
times. Eventually on March 27, 2023, the Hungarian parliament voted 182-6
to approve Finland’s bid.
Final Hurdle for Finland’s NATO Accession Removed
Turkish parliament on March 30, 2023 sealed the final step for Helsinki to join NATO,
pending few remaining official procedures. Turkish parliament voted 276-0 to
ratify the accession. The move left Sweden in the lurch as its Nordic neighbor
propelled toward joining the 30-nation NATO.
Finland’s Flag to Fly with Other NATO Members at Brussels Headquarters
Completing the quickest accession ever into NATO, Finland has a lot to
celebrate on April 4, 2023 as NATO Foreign Ministers are going to meet
at its Brussels headquarters. There will be an additional national flag to fly
on a pole in front of NATO headquarters on April 4, 2023. NATO
Foreign Ministers will discuss, among others, on giving more military aid
to Ukraine. Since Russian invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022,
western nations have forked out more than $70 billion in military aid to
Kyiv.
Finland Joins NATO, increasing the Russian Border with NATO to double
Giving up the allegiance to non-aligned movement, Finland on April 4,
2023 formally joined the western military alliance. With its 832 miles border
with Russia, the Nordic nation’s accession to the North Atlantic Treaty
Organization doubles the military alliance’s border with Russia. There was a
palpable air of happiness and joviality on April 4, 2023 outside as NATO
foreign ministers met within alliance’s headquarters inside to grant
Finland the membership of the western military alliance. One key rationale for
Russia to attack Ukraine on February 24, 2022 was the expansion of NATO to
Russia’s doorstep, a phenomenon that, paradoxically, Kremlin hastened by its
own action. U.S. President Joe Biden congratulated the newest NATO
member nation, Finland, whose accession to NATO occurred on the 74th
anniversary of NATO’s founding on April 4, 1949.
Sweden Clinches Turkish Support for NATO Accession
Sweden is highly likely to be the 32nd member state of
NATO as NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said on July 10, 2023 at
Vilnius that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan had agreed to “submit
the ratification documents to the Grand National Assembly”. On July 10, 2023,
Stoltenberg met with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Swedish
Premier Ulf Kristersson at Vilnius, hosting city for this year’s NATO
summit. Turkey’s nod to Sweden’s accession bid came on the eve of Vilnius
Summit of NATO to be held July 11-12, 2023. The ball will now move
to the Turkish parliament’s court.
The die has been cast on July 9, 2023 when President Joe Biden
and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan had a telephone conversation on
unblocking of Sweden’s accession bid. Metaphorically speaking, two carrots were
dangled before Erdogan during that session. The first one is related to the shipment
of F-16 fighter jets worth $20 billion to Turkey. Some U.S. lawmakers
are leery of completing the deal because of Ankara’s human rights records. Now,
Biden administration will try to get that deal approved by Congress. The second
one is related to Turkey’s own bid to join European Union. That requires
broader consensus, including European partners as many of the EU members are
reluctant of tying up the two issues. German Chancelor Olaf Scholz said
clearly that Turkey’s entry to EU and Sweden’s accession bid [to NATO] was not a
“connected issue”. However, in recent days, Erdogan made it a point to connect
the two actions as he reminded the world that Turkey first had applied to join
the bloc back in 1987 and had been waiting since then.
Turkish President Sends Sweden’s NATO Entry Protocol to Parliament
October 23, 2023 is a great day for Sweden as Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan
has taken one of the most significant steps to remove the obstacles preventing
the Nordic nation from joining the NATO. During the day, President Erdogan sent
the related [ratification] protocol to Turkish parliament. Swedish Prime
Minister Ulf Kristersson hailed the move in a post on X, formerly known as
Twitter. NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg enthusiastically said
that “I look forward to a speedy” ratification vote.
Turkish Parliament Set to Vote Later in the Week on Sweden’s Entry into
NATO
The Bloomberg News reported on January 22, 2024 that the Turkish
parliament would hold a vote later in the week on Sweden’s accession into NATO.
A Turkish parliamentary committee has voted for the accession, and now the measure
is pending in the full chamber. The chance for approval brightened
significantly after the U.S. linked the sales of 40 F-16 warplanes and 79
upgrade kits to the existing fleet of fighter jets to an YES vote by the Turkish
parliament on the Swedish accession into NATO.
Orban Calls Parliament to Approve Sweden’s Entry into NATO
On January 23, 2024, Turkish parliament approved Sweden’s bid for
NATO membership after the Biden administration conditioned the sales of F-16 on
approving Sweden’s accession into NATO. A day later, January 24, 2024, Hungarian
Prime Minister Viktor Orban did a convenient political and diplomatic
gymnastic by urging his national lawmakers to vote for Stockholm’s membership. So
embarrassing the situation turned for Orban that he adopted a more ridiculous
face-saving strategy. That was to invite his Swedish counterpart a few hours
before the Turkish parliamentary vote for a meeting in Budapest on the
accession plan, knowing well that Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson
might just ignore his entreaty. The response from Stockholm was fast and dismissive
as Swedish Foreign Minister Tobias Billstrom said that there was nothing
to talk about.
Hungary to Clear the Last Hurdle for Swedes’ NATO Accession Plan
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban on February 23, 2024 met his Swedish
counterpart at Budapest and assured Ulf Kristersson that Hungarian
parliament would take the last step on February 26, 2024 to pave the way
for Stockholm to join the NATO. In exchange for lifting its objection, Hungary
secured the acquisition of four additional Gripen warplanes. Currently, Hungary
has 14 Gripen jets, but their lease will expire in 2026. As part of the Orban-Kristersson
deal, ownership of those 14 jet planes will be transferred to Hungary upon the
expiry of the lease in 2026 and Sweden will provide logistical and
technical support for the Gripen aircraft through 2036.
Hungarian Lawmakers Approve Sweden’s NATO Accession
Clearing the last step for Sweden to join NATO, Hungary’s parliament
on February 26, 2024 voted 188-6 to ratify the accession resolution
that had been forwarded by Hungarian government in July 2022. Hungarian
Premier Viktor Orban blamed irresponsible statements from Swedish
politicians, who had accused the Budapest of apparent backsliding on democracy,
for the stalled draft at parliament as the Fidesz Party lawmakers felt
humiliated by such comments and didn’t take any action for almost 19 months.
Turkey ratified the Swedish accession last month.
Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson said that with the last hurdle lifted, Stockholm
was leaving the 200 years of nonalignment for a new home. NATO Secretary-General
Jens Stoltenberg said that although the Kremlin had tried its best to block
Sweden’s entry, the western military alliance stood firm and embraced the entry
of Finland and Sweden, both of which had applied for NATO’s membership in May
2022.
Sweden Becomes 32nd NATO Member Nation
Heralding a new chapter for Stockholm that had opened its last
fire on Norway in 1814 and had maintained neutrality, or more precisely the
policy of non-alignment, since then, Sweden on March 7, 2024
became the 32nd member nation of NATO as Swedish Prime
Minister Ulf Kristersson handed over the accession document to U.S.
State Secretary Anthony Blinken at the State Department. Swedish flag will
be erected at the NATO headquarters in Brussels on March 11, 2024. The Swedish
accession into NATO will solidify NATO presence in the strategic Baltic Sea and
provide an added and enhanced security environment to the Baltic Nations
whose only land corridor with NATO is the vulnerable Suwalki Gap.
****************** NATO MEMBERSHIP FOR SWEDEN AND FINLAND
Azovstal Steel Plant’s Resistance over
The last bastion of resistance at the port city of Mariupol is
over on May 16, 2022 as the Azov Regiment’s one of the top commanders, Lt.
Col. Denis Prokopenko, declared the mission to defend the Azovstal Iron
and Steel Works plant over. On May 16, 2022, at least 260
wounded Ukrainian fighters were evacuated from the sprawling plant in Mariupol
and taken to Russian-controlled region in vehicles guarded by Russian armored
carriers. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said in the nightly
daily address that the evacuation was being done to save lives of the fighters
and Kyiv would seek ways to return all of them safely to their families.
Zelensky added: “Ukrainians need Ukrainian heroes to be alive”. Ukraine’s
deputy defense minister, Hanna Maliar, said that 63 wounded were
taken to a hospital at Novoazovsk and 211 additional Ukrainian
fighters were taken to Olenivka. Maliar added that, because of the
resistance put up the Azovstal fighters, Ukraine got the critical leeway to make
a concerted push in other parts of the country, most notable in Kharkiv region
to push out the Russian soldiers, reiterating that “they fulfilled all their
tasks".
In the midst of evacuation of fighters from the Azovstal Iron and Steel
Works plant that had begun on May 16, 2022, Russia pressed ahead its
assault on the Donbas region. Its barrage of strikes on Sievierdonentsk
killed at least 10 people, according to Luhansk Governor Serhiy Haidai. Donetsk
Governor Pavlo Kyrylenko said on a Facebook message that at least 9
people were killed during the day in Russian assault on his region. Governor
Serhiy Haidai and Governor Pavlo Kyrylenko lead the Ukraine-governed
parts of Luhansk and Donetsk, respectively, while Denis
Pushilin and Leonid Pasechnik lead the secessionist-controlled parts
of Donetsk and Luhansk, respectively.
Meanwhile, European Union leaders are trying their best to form a
unanimous response over the sixth-round sanction against Russia. Since
Russia launched Ukraine invasion on February 24, 2022, 27-nation E.U.
imposed five rounds of sanctions that had a crippling effect on Russian
economy. Those sanctions include travel ban and other punitive measures against
Vladimir Putin, his inner circles, Kremlin officials, more than 350
lawmakers, oligarchs, transportation and banking sectors. However, when E.U. has
announced the sixth-round sanction on May 4, 2022, there has been murmur
of dissent, especially from Hungary, as this round deals with oil and natural
gas import ban. Hungary imports 60% of its oil and 85% of its
natural gas from Russia. EU foreign policy chief, Josep Borrell, lamented
on May 16, 2022 after a meeting of the bloc’s foreign ministers at
Brussels that “today it has not been possible to reach an agreement".
Mariupol about to Fall Completely to Russian Control
As the evacuation of Ukrainian fighters from the Azovstal Iron and Steel
Works facility, the last redoubt of Ukrainian resistance in Mariupol,
began on May 16, 2022, it became clear that it’s a matter of hours when
Russia would claim a much-needed victory of the port city on the Sea of Azov.
1,000 Fighters Evacuated from Steel Plant, Russia Says; Amnesty Seeks
Access to Fighters
Russia on May 18, 2022 said that nearly 1,000 Ukrainian
fighters were evacuated from the Azovstal Iron and Steel Works plant
since the [evacuation] process had begun on May 16, 2022. Many of these
fighters were wounded. The fighters have been taken to Russia-controlled areas.
Amnesty International’s deputy director for the region, Denis
Krivosheev, on May 18, 2022 called for the access to the Ukrainian
fighters by Red Cross. Amnesty also called the evacuated fighters as prisoners
of war.
Mariupol Defenders Receive POW Status; Senate Passes a $40 billion
Package for Ukraine
Amnesty International on May 19, 2022 said that Red Cross had gathered
personal information for the fighters evacuated from Azovstal Iron and Steel
Works plant, thus labeling them the POW status. That gives them protection
under the Geneva Convention. Russian authorities said on May 19, 2022
that at least 1,700 defenders were evacuated since May 16, 2022.
Meanwhile, the U.S. Senate overwhelmingly passed a $40 billion
aid package for Ukraine, $7 billion more than what President Joe Biden
had sought for. House passed the bill last week.
Mariupol Captured; Zelensky Calls Donbas Attack “Hell”
Russian state media RIA Novosti quoted the country’s defense ministry
on May 20, 2022 that 2,439 fighters had been evacuated from the Azovstal
Iron and Steel Works facility since May 16, 2022, the first day of
the evacuation of the fighters, including about 500 fighters on May 20, 2022.
Many of the fighters are injured and they have been taken to hospitals in
Russia-controlled and Russian-backed rebel-held regions and many others have
been taken to penal colonies. Russia said that it would put several of them on
war crimes trial. Many of the fighters belong to the far-right Azov Regiment,
feeding to Russian narrative that Kremlin’s campaign was aimed at carrying out
denazification of Ukraine. Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu on May
20, 2022 reported to Russian President Vladimir Putin that the
entire Mariupol, including the sprawling steel plant, was now under complete
Russian control. Although the resistance at Mariupol has ended, it is already
being compared with other glorious historical defeats in the world. Mykhailo
Podolyak, an adviser to President Volodymyr Zelensky, said on May
20, 2022 that Mariupol was “the Thermopylae of the 21st
century”, referring to one of the most ferocious and glorious battles dated
back to 480 B.C. in which 300 Spartans had put up a valorous resistance against
a much bigger Persian army before succumbing.
Meanwhile, in the nightly video address, Ukrainian President
Volodymyr Zelensky accused Russia of turning the Donbas region into
a “hell”. Russia continued its assault on the easternmost city of Donbas
still under Ukrainian control—Severodonetsk. At least a dozen were
killed on May 20, 2022, according to regional governor, Serhiy Haidai.
On May 20, 2022, G-7 finance ministers concluded their two-day
session at the German city of Koenigswinter and pledged $19.8 billion
in economic aid to Ukraine.
Biden Signs $40 billion Ukraine Package in South Korea
President Joe Biden, in a six-day swing through South Korea and Japan, on May 21, 2022
signed the just-approved aid package for Ukraine that would fund Kyiv’s
military and economic needs. President Joe Biden signed the bill—carried
by an American official in a commercial flight from Washington D.C. to South
Korea—in South Korea in an unmistakable message that attached significance and
importance to supporting the Ukrainians fight the Russian assault. Meanwhile, Luhansk
Governor Serhiy Haidai on May 21, 2022 issued a grim prognostication about Severodonetsk:
Russia was trying to do a repeat of Mariupol.
First Russian Soldier to Stand Trial Found Guilty, Zelensky Addresses WEF at Davos
Russian Sgt. Vadim Shishimarin on May 23, 2022 was found guilty by the court and sentence to life in prison. This is the first war crimes trial that Ukraine has held for a captured Russian soldier on war crimes charges. This also raises the fear that Russia will do the same for more than 2,000 Ukrainian fighters who have been recently evacuated from a steel plant in Mariupol. Meanwhile, video-addressing the World Economic Forum at Davos, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky urged the world's political and business leaders to turn the sanctions knob tighter on Russia in order to end the war. He also stated that Ukraine needed $5 billion aid per month to reconstruct its economy.
Starbucks, McDonald's Leave Russia
Days after McDonald's announced that it was leaving Russia, Starbucks on May 23, 2022 said that it would leave the Russian market altogether, handing another blow to Russia's business landscape.
Kremlin Works to Naturalize People in New Region; Russian Army to Scrap Age Limit
On May 25, 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin issued a decree that would give Russian citizenship to Ukrainian people in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions, creating an integrated region from Luhansk and Donetsk in Donbas to Crimea which Kremlin had annexed in 2014. In a separate move, Russian parliament on May 25, 2022 initiated a move to abolish the upper age limit of 40 for military services to ease the strain that the armed services were facing.
Putin Talks to French, German Leaders; Blames Sanctions for World
Economic Woes
On May 28, 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin held an
80-minute phone conversation with French President Emmanuel Macron and German
Chancellor Olaf Scholz as part of a global effort to bring an end to a
conflict that had erupted on February 24, 2022 and plunged the world to
the brink of economic chaos with inflation, food shortage and supply-chain
crisis spiraling out of control. President Putin lay much of the blame for
economic woes at the doorstep of western nations for imposing sanctions on
Russia. Putin also blamed western arming of Ukraine as a key reason for
prolonging the war.
Meanwhile, on the ground, Russia is pushing to conquer two major cities
in Luhansk which are not yet under the Russian control: Sievierodonetsk
and Lysychansk. On May 28, 2022, Russian army backed by
Russia-backed militia seized a key railway hub in Donbas, Lyman, thus
cutting one of the best conveyances to send western arms to Ukrainian fighters
in Donbas. Luhansk Governor Serhii Haidai said that, although the Ukrainian
forces had repelled attacks by Russians on Sievierodonetsk, the Russian
army encircled the city. Sievierodonetsk Mayor Oleksandr Striuk said the
previous day that some 1,500 civilians of the city out of a total pre-war
population of more than 100,000 had died because of inaccessibility to
treatment and other war-induced causes.
Zelensky Visits Frontline in Kharkiv
In a show of bravery, inspiration and encouragement, Ukrainian
President Volodymyr Zelensky on May 29, 2022 visited the war-torn frontline
in Kharkiv. A bullet-proof-worn president was seen walking on the streets
of the city where Ukrainian soldiers days ago had put up valorous resistance, pushing
the Russian soldiers to borders. Kharkiv Governor Oleh Syniehubov said
that at least 2,000 buildings of Kharkiv had been destroyed in shelling
and airstrikes since February 24, 2022.
On May 29, 2022, Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic said that the
Balkan nation had reached with Russia “an extremely favorable” natural gas deal,
undermining the European solidarity against Russia.
E.U. Announces Sixth Round of Sanctions against Russia, $9.7 billion Aid
Package for Kyiv
At Brussels, European Union leaders on May 30, 2022 made two
simultaneous announcements: (1) punitive embargo—sixth-round sanction—on Russia
and (2) a $9.7 billion aid package for Ukraine. The first five rounds of
sanctions targeted more than 1,000 individuals, including President Vladimir
Putin. The sixth round goes much deeper, targeting Russia’s cash cow—energy sector.
EU Council President Charles Michel said on May 30, 2022 that the sixth
round of sanctions would target oil imports from Russia, taking out
two-third of the Russian oil imports from the EU marketplace. Since sanctions
require unanimous approval from all the 27 nations in the bloc and Hungary is
opposed to Russian oil imports ban because of Budapest’s reliance on Russia
for 60% of its oil need (as opposed to EU’s 25%) and 85% of
its natural gas need (as opposed to EU’s 40%), respectively, EU has formulated
on May 30, 2022 a compromise plan that will ban Russian oil imports
via sea by the end of this year while the parts of Druzhba Pipeline will remain
operational, bringing Russian oil and natural gas to landlocked Hungary. European
Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said on May 30, 2022 that, even
with the compromise that will ensure Hungarian energy need, 90% of Russian oil
import to EU would be cut by the end of the year. Also, under the sixth round
of sanction, Russia’s biggest bank, Sberbank, will be excluded from the
international SWIFT system.
Pair of Russian Soldiers Sentenced
In the second tranche of punishment meted out to captured Russian
soldiers for war crimes, a Ukrainian court on May 31, 2022 sentenced two
Russian soldiers to 11-and-1/2 years of imprisonment for “violating the
laws and customs of war”. The convicted duo stood trial in Poltava region,
and their guilty verdict came eight days after the May 23, 2022, sentencing
of Sgt. Vadim Shishimarin to life in prison.
Ukraine to Receive German, U.S. Arms; Key Donbas City about to Fall
Washington is sending the medium-range rockets to Ukraine as part of the
$700 million tranche of military aid announced earlier that also
includes Javelin anti-tank missiles, radars, tactical vehicles and spare parts.
U.S. and Germany on June 1, 2022 separately announced equipping Ukraine
with additional and advanced arms in order to bolster its defense posture in
Donbas region. However, U.S. made clear that those arms could not be used in
attacks against targets in Russian territory. Germany said on June 1, 2022 that it
was sending advanced anti-aircraft missiles and radar system.
On ground, though, situation is going tough in Sievierodonetsk as
the regional governor, Serhii Haidai of Luhansk, has said on June 1,
2022 that 80% of the city of former population of more than 100,000
is now being controlled by Russian army. The only major city in Luhansk that
still remains under 100% Ukrainian control is Lysychansk.
Russian Invasion Becomes a Slog after 100 Days
As Russia’s military campaign in Ukraine has stepped in on the 100th
day on June 3, 2022, Kremlin’s goal has shifted from regime change in Kyiv
to occupy as much area in the predominantly Russian speaking regions as
possible. During the first 100 days, Russia has destroyed nearly 38,000
residential buildings. Now, ruble is official currency in the
occupied Kherson region alongside hryvnia, and Russian passports
are being offered in Kherson and Russia-occupied areas of Zaporizhzhia.
On a parallel track, the battle is now concentrated in Donbas region in the
industrial east.
Russia Strikes Kyiv, Destroys West-provided Tanks
Russian military launched five X-22 cruise missiles from Caspian
Sea on June 5, 2022, and one of them was destroyed by the Ukrainian air defense
while remaining four hit targets in Kyiv, destroying T-72 tanks provided
by Eastern European nations. One of the X-22 cruise missiles flew by
very close to Pivdennoukrainsk nuclear power plant, 220 miles south of
Kyiv, according to nuclear plant operator Energoatom, raising alarm over
any mistaken hit that would entail to an unprecedented devastation.
Bodies from Mariupol Steel Plant being Sent to Kiev for ID; EU Blames Russia
for Food Crisis
On June 6, 2022, arduous tasks are being conducted at Kiev for
identification of hundreds of bodies of dead Ukrainian fighters that have been
removed from Azovstal Iron and Steel Works plant and transported to the
capital. Meanwhile, fierce battle is continuing in Sievierodonetsk, with
neighborhood-by-neighborhood resistance being put up by Ukrainian soldiers and
fighters. During the day, Russian long-range missiles struck a plant at the
edge of the town of Lozova in the northeastern Kharkiv region.
The plant is reported to be a regional hub of repair and maintenance work for
military ware.
On June 6, 2022, European Council President Charles Michel
said at the U.N. Security Council that it was because of the Russian invasion
of Ukraine that the world faced acute food crisis, addressing Russian
Ambassador Vassily Nebenzia directly to accuse Kremlin of using food
supplies as “a stealth missile against developing countries”. Nebenzia
walked out of the chamber in the middle of Michel’s speech. Later, Russia’s
deputy ambassador, Dmitry Polyansky, called out Charles Michel for
being “rude”. The June 6, 2022, session was supposed to be focused on
sexual violence during the war in Ukraine, but descended into a grievance
session related to world’s food crisis. Russia and Ukraine account for almost a
third of world’s wheat and barley and half of sunflower oil. Russia and Belarus
are the number two and three producers of Potash, a key ingredient of
fertilizer.
Captured Foreign Fighters Sentenced to Death as Putin Reminisces Peter
the Great
On June 9, 2022, a court in the Russia-backed People’s
Republic of Donetsk convicted three captured foreign fighters—Alden Aslin,
Shaun Pinner and Brahim Saadoun, according to Russia’s state-owned RIA
Novosti—of trying to violently overthrow the government and sentenced the two
Britons and one Moroccan to death by firing squad. Three convicts, though, will
get opportunity to appeal. Ukrainian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Olen
Nikolenko condemned the judicial proceeding. British Foreign Minister
Liz Truss called the trial a “sham judgment with absolutely no legitimacy".
As the conflict on the ground in Donbas became a war of attrition,
President Vladimir Putin on June 9, 2022 compared himself with 18th
century Russian ruler Peter the Great, and retorted that he was
following the same mantle and justified for a “Greater Russia".
Zelensky Warns against War Fatigue; Up to 200 Ukrainian Soldiers Killed
Daily
Anticipating certain degree of nonchalance and numbness that is setting
in among a large section of western populace, Ukrainian President Volodymyr
Zelensky on June 10, 2022 has warned against “war fatigue”, and pressed for
more advanced weapons from the west. Recent suggestions from the western
leaders have made Ukrainian officials irked at best and abandoned at worst.
Ukrainians are livid at the recent suggestions made by French President
Emmanuel Macron that, although Putin made the “historic error” by invading
Ukraine, world shouldn’t “humiliate Russia, so when the fighting stops, we can
build a way out together via diplomatic path”. Ukrainian Foreign Minister
Dmytro Kuleba retorted that this type of comment would “only humiliate
France and every other country that call for it”. Meanwhile, authorities have
reported that up to 200 Ukrainian soldiers are being killed daily and another
800 are being removed from the war theater because of injuries. Ukraine has
pressed for advanced weapons from the west.
NATO Chief Finds Turkey’s Concern Genuine, Russia Day Observed in Occupied Regions
NATO chief’s visit to Turkey and meeting with President Recep Tayyip
Erdogan on June 12, 2022 appeared to thaw a very little, if anything at
all, over Finland’s and Sweden’s bid to join 29-nation military alliance.
Turkey expressed very strong reservation to both the Nordic nations’ NATO bid over
their support for Kurdish rights and activities which Ankara had labeled
nothing short of terrorism. NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg
acknowledged that Ankara’s objection was rooted in genuine concerns.
On June 12, 2022, Russia Day was observed in Kherson,
Zaporizhzhia, Russia-back militant-occupied parts of Donetsk and
Luhansk, Crimea, Mariupol and other Ukrainian areas recently seized by
Russia. In Kherson, occupying Russian officials distributed Russian
passports among the applicants. In neighboring Zaporizhzhia, a Russian
flag was hoisted at the central square of Melitopol. The war in Donbas,
meanwhile, became a war of strategic patience, slog and entrenched. Russia’s
strategic goal has changed from the initial target of changing the regime in
Kyiv to occupy as much territory as possible, especially the industrial eastern
region of Donbas.
Russia Zeroes on Key Government-controlled Luhansk City, Gas Exports to
Europe Cut
On the war front on June 15, 2022, Russian army and Ukrainian
fighters are engaged in heavy fighting in Sievierodonetsk, according to Luhansk
Governor Serhiy Haidai. Russia also struck an arms depot in the western
city of Lviv by long-range missiles.
Meanwhile, on June 15, 2022, Russia cut gas shipment to Europe
for the second day in a row. In an announcement during the day, Russian government-run
Gazprom said that it would reduce the gas exports via Nord Stream 1
to Germany. On June 14, 2022, Gazprom announced a reduction in gas
shipment to Germany via Nord Stream 1 by 40% after Siemens
had failed to deliver Russia necessary equipment because of Canada-imposed
sanctions, and on June 15, 2022, it doubled down on cutting gas exports,
totaling a cumulative 60% cut in gas shipment to Germany. On June 15,
2022, Gazprom informed Italy’s state-owned Eni an impending
cut of 15% in gas shipment, compounding the energy woes of Europe days
after cutting gas shipment to Bulgaria, Poland, Netherlands, Finland and
Denmark.
Unannounced Visit Quartet of European Leaders Underlines Solid Show of
Unity with Ukraine
On June 16, 2022, heads of state of Germany, France, Italy and
Romania paid an unannounced visit to Kyiv, and expressed strong
support for Ukraine. As west’s rock-solid determination to stand behind Ukraine
is started to be questioned among many quarters as some degree of “war fatigue”
is visible, the picture of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky embraced
by German Chancelor Olaf Scholz, French President Emmanuel Macron, Italian
Premier Mario Draghi and Romanian President Klaus Iohannis conveys an
existing solid bond between Kyiv and Europe. After recent softening of posture
towards Russia that earned criticism and mockery, French President Emmanuel
Macron didn’t lose the opportunity on June 16, 2022 to reinforce the
west’s unwavering support for Ukraine, adding that Ukraine alone would “decide
its fate”. German Chancelor Olaf Scholz reiterated that “Ukraine belongs
to the European family”. Leaders also visited the Kyiv suburb of Irpin
where serious charges of human rights abuse against Russian soldiers had been
raised.
E.U. Takes Step to Accede Ukraine into Union, Russia Cuts Gas Supply,
Johnson in Kyiv
European Union’s executive arm on June 17, 2022 took initial
steps to begin the process of accepting Ukraine into the bloc. On June 17,
2022, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson made an unannounced trip
to Kyiv and met with President Volodymyr Zelensky, second such trip to the
war-ravaged country in as many months. In Kyiv, Johnson pledged to help
Ukrainian soldiers in training in advanced weaponry in a foreign country. A day
earlier, leaders from Germany, France, Romania and Italy met with Zelensky at
Kyiv. President Volodymyr Zelensky urged the western nations to supply
advanced weapons as soon as possible to fight back against Russia in Donbas.
Biden administration’s recent announcement of $1 billion in military
aid, largest so far by Washington, may be too late, too little in making a
difference in Donbas.
On June 17, 2022, Russia reduced gas exports to Europe for the
third time. Gazprom informed Slovakia’s state-owned gas behemoth SPP that
it would cut gas supply to the nation by 50%. It reduced the gas exports to
Italy by 50%, and stopped shipping gas to France altogether. On June 15,
2022, it cut gas supplies to Italy by 15%, followed by 35% cut on June 16,
2022 and 50% cut on June 17, 2022.
Morale Sagging on Both Sides amidst NATO Fear of a Possible Long War
NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg on June 19, 2022 told a German weekly,
Bild am Sonntag, that the war in Ukraine might drag for years,
compounding an already alarming global food crisis. Meanwhile, reports from
Donbas and other conflict-ridden areas point to a declining state of morale on both
sides. On June 19, 2022, Luhansk Governor Serhiy Haidai via
Telegram warned a serious situation in Sievierodonetsk, “where the enemy
in the middle of the city is conducting round-the-clock aerial reconnaissance
with drones”. Russian Army announced during the day that Russian army and
Russia-backed rebels had taken control of Metolkine, a settlement just
east to Sievierodonetsk. Another city, Bakhmut, 33 miles
southwest of twin cities of Sievierodonetsk and Lysyhansk, is
being pummeled by Russia. On June 19, 2022, Russia transported two top
commanders of Azovstal resistance in Mariupol from Donetsk to Russia. Those two
top commanders are (1) Azov Regiment’s Deputy Commander Sviatoslav “Kalina”
Palamar, a well-known face of Ukrainian resistance in Mariupol, and (2) Serhiy
Volinsky, a commander of Ukraine’s 36th Marine Brigade. On June 19,
2022, President Volodymyr Zelensky visited country’s south, namely Odessa and
Mykolaiv regions.
Kremlin Blasts Lithuania’s Train Blockade to Russian Exclave
Despite the largest military aid commitment made by Biden administration
last week, if previous shipment of weapons is any indication, it will meet the
same fate for this $1 billion tranche of military aid: slow shipment,
slow training and delayed battlefield impact. That means Russian gain in additional
territories in Donbas.
Meanwhile, Kremlin blasted Lithuania’s recent blockade of Russian trains
from bringing shipment to an isolated exclave on the Baltic Sea. Lithuanian
Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis on June 20, 2022
justified the rail movement through its land to Kaliningrad, saying that
Vilnius was only implementing the EU’s sanctions on Russia.
EU Puts Ukrainian Membership on Fast Track
European Union leaders on June 23, 2022 put the candidacy of Ukraine to join the
27-nation bloc on the fast track.
Russian Forces Capture Key City in Donbas
On June 25, 2022, Russian soldiers, backed by Kremlin-tied
local separatists in Donbas region, swept through Sievierodonetsk,
forcing Ukrainian forces to withdraw. The June 25, 2022, fall of
Sievierodonetsk left only one major city in Luhansk under the
control of government. Now the fight turns on Lysyhansk. On June 25,
2022, Russia struck various targets in Ukraine far beyond the epicenter of
the current conflict, Donbas, with missiles launched from Tu-22 bombers
based in Belarus, marking for the first time that attack on Ukraine had been
launched from Belarus.
Kyiv Hit for the First Time in Three Weeks; Russia to Default on Foreign
Debt
Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko said on June 26, 2022 that Russian
missiles had struck Kyiv for the first time since June 5, 2022. The long-range
missiles were Kh-101 launched from war planes over the Caspian Sea.
Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko gave his own rationale on why Kremlin had
chosen to strike Kyiv. According to the capital’s mayor, Russia wanted
to send a “symbolic” message days before NATO summit at Madrid.
Russia is reported to have been hurtling towards defaulting on foreign
debt for the first time since Bolshevik Revolution. Russia faced a tentative June
26, 2022 timeline for default, a 30-day grace period after the May 27,
2022, deadline on paying interest payment on $40 billion in foreign bond.
Russia has $640 billion in foreign currency and gold reserves, mostly in
foreign banks which have been frozen because of western sanctions.
Dozens Feared Dead in Russian Missile Strikes
A Russian missile on June 27, 2022 struck a crowded mall in the
central Ukrainian city of Kremenchuk. A second missile hit a sports
arena in Kramechuk. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky accused
Russia of targeting soft spots such as the mall in Kramenchuk that was
teeming with people at the time of the strike. The Ukrainian military
said that the missiles that hit Kramenchuk on June 27, 2022 were
fired by a long-range Tu-22M3 bomber from Russia’s western Kursk
region.
Russia Withdraws from Snake Island
Russia on June 30, 2022 withdrew its soldiers from Snake
Island, an island on the Black Sea that Russian soldiers had seized in the
first days of conflict. Kremlin suggested that it was part do “goodwill gesture”.
Kyiv dismissed Kremlin’s “goodwill gesture”, and reiterated that its military
resistance had forced Russian troops to leave the island.
U.S. to Send $820 million in Military Aid to Ukraine
U.S. on July 1, 2022 announced a $820 million tranche of
military aid to Ukraine. Among the items included are (1) NASAMS, an
anti-aircraft missile system built by a Norwegian company currently used to
protect the White House and the U.S. Capitol and (2) counter-artillery
radars. In addition, U.S. will send additional ammunition for the High
Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems, or HIMARS, launcher vehicles provided by
Russia in June 2022.
Russia Pounds the Last Government Holdout in Luhansk
Russia on July 2, 2022 intensified bombing on Lysyhansk days
after its twin city across a river, Sievierodentsk, had fallen to
Russian hands. Luhansk’s pro-Kyiv governor, Serhiy Haidai, said that
Russia was pounding the city of Lysyhansk with all “available kinds of
weapons”. Russia has also zeroed on some of the key cities in neighboring Donetsk
which are still under Ukrainian control as the sweep through Luhansk is
getting to completion. Mayor Vadym Lyakh of Slovyansk, a major Donetsk
city under Kyiv’s control, said on July 2, 2022 on a Facebook post that
Russia had struck his city with cluster munitions late July 1, 2022.
Meanwhile, Ukrainian Prosecutor-General Iryna Venediktova said on July
2, 2022 that investigators were collecting evidence hours after a Russian
airstrike on residential areas of the Black Sea coastal town of Serhiivka on
July 1, 2022 that had killed at least 20 people.
Russia Claims Victory over the Last Luhansk Stronghold
Russia on July 3, 2022 declared a complete victory of Lysyhansk
as Ukrainian fighters had retreated from the city, thus sweeping the major
towns and cities of the province. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky,
though, reiterated that his troops would fight against Russia and win back the
city.
Bulgaria Expels Dozens of Russian Diplomats
Since he had opposed the February 24, 2022, Russia’s invasion of
Ukraine, Kremlin launched a “hybrid war” to pull down his government that
climaxed with a parliamentary no-confidence vote on June 22, 2022. This is
the primary allegation of Bulgaria’s acting prime minister, Kiril Petkov.
Since the fall of his government, allegedly due to interference by Kremlin, the
bilateral relationship between Sofia and Moscow was on a
tailspin. At least 70 Russian embassy staff in Sofia had been labeled as
“persona non grata”. They had left en masse in a pair of flights on July 3,
2022.
Putin Declares Victory in a Key Province in Donbas
On July 4, 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced
victory over Luhansk.
Governor Urges People to Evacuate
After conquering Luhansk, Russia has its bird’s eyes on Donetsk,
setting the stage for a scorched earth strategy in areas of the province that’s
still under the Ukrainian control. Anticipating the trail of destruction
awaiting the villages, towns and cities in the province, Donetsk Governor Pavlo
Kyrylenko on July 5, 2022 urged more than 350,000 people from the
Ukrainian-held parts to evacuate immediately. Governor Pavlo Kyrylenko
told reporters at the provincial administrative capital of Kramatrosk
that the destiny of the nation would be decided in Donetsk. Kramatrosk
hosts the regional base of the Ukrainian army, and the governor has argued that,
once civilians are evacuated from areas of conflict, the army can defend the
region more effectively. With Governor Pavlo Kyrylenko’s exhortation to
hundreds of thousands of civilians to get out, the exodus will be on the top of
already 7.1 million internally displaced people and more than 4.8
million people who have fled the country altogether since the February
24, 2022, Russian invasion, according to the U.N. Meanwhile, on July 5,
2022, authorities issued air alert throughout the nation. President Volodymyr
Zelensky said that “terrorists” didn’t follow any rule of the war and were
indiscriminately targeting everywhere. Russia, after seizing almost all of
Luhansk, is now focusing on Donetsk’s two major cities: Kramatrosk,
the administrative seat, and Sloviansk. Major Russian shelling “pummeled
the city”, wrote Sloviansk Mayor Vadim Lyakh on Facebook.
Erdogan to Push for Shipping of Ukrainian Grains
Turkey's president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, said on July 5, 2022 that he would push for removing the blockade in the Black Sea so that Ukrainian wheat, sunflower and corns could be shipped to nations around the world, especially in Africa. Erdogan was addressing a press conference at Ankara alongside visiting Italian Premier Mario Draghi.
Dozen Killed in Russian Rocket Attack on Apartment Building
A rocket attack on late July 9, 2022 on an apartment building at Chasiv
Yar in Donetsk killed at least 15 people.
Russia Expands Citizenship Plan as It Assaults Kharkiv
Russia on July 11, 2022 announced expansion of its citizenship
program in occupied area to transform the composition of cities, towns and
villages that Kremlin had seized in the nearly five-month war. During the day,
Russia struck Ukraine’s second-largest city, Kharkiv, with three
missiles that had killed at least six people.
Russia Launches Barrage of Missiles on the South as It Expands Attacks
in the East
On July 13, 2022, Russian missiles struck southern city of Mykolaiv,
killing at least five people. Russia also launched a pair of cruise missile
strikes on a factory in Zaporizhzhia, wounding 14 people. In Donetsk,
the city of Bakhmut came under punishing shelling on July 13, 2022,
according to Donetsk Governor Pavlo Kyrylenko. In the adjacent Luhansk,
Ukrainian soldiers and fighters took their valorous resistance to two villages
still under Ukrainian control, according to Luhansk Governor Serhiy Haidai.
The province of Luhansk is now under Russian and Russia-backed secessionist
control barring few villages.
The Russian assault on Ukraine on July 13, 2022 was not only
limited to Donbas and Ukraine’s south, Russian artillery hit the country’s
second-largest city of Kharkiv. The regional governor of Kharkiv, Oleg
Syniehubov, accused Kremlin of trying to “terrorize civilians”. Separately,
Donetsk’s pro-Moscow breakaway republic’s governor, Denis Pushilin,
announced on July 13, 2022 that North Korea had now joined Syria in
recognizing the independence of “Donetsk People’s Republic”. During the day,
Ukraine’s emergency services agency upped the estimate of the death toll from the
July 9, 2022, Russian rocket attack on an apartment building in Chasiv
Yar to 47.
Governor Serhiy Haidai and Governor Pavlo Kyrylenko are heading the Ukraine-governed parts of Luhansk and Donetsk, respectively, while Denis Pushilin and Leonid Pasechnik are the heads of the secessionist-controlled parts of Donetsk and Luhansk, respectively.
America’s Top Diplomat Lambasts Kremlin’s “Filtration” Operation
U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken on July 13, 2022
accused Russia of forcefully transporting 900,000 to 1.6 million Ukrainians to
Russian—or Russia-backed, rebel-controlled—territories, taking away their
Ukrainian passports and issuing Russian passports, all in an endeavor to permanently
change the composition of parts of Ukraine. Blinken said that the operation was
reminiscent of “filtration” operation that Kremlin had carried out during
Chechen war. Blinken cautioned that Vladimir Putin “will not be able to engage
in these systematic abuses with impunity".
*********************** UKRAINIAN GRAIN EXPORT
U.N. Chief Hopeful on Grain Exports from Ukraine
U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres on July 13, 2022 expressed optimism that
the talks at Istanbul to remove the Black Sea blockade so that 22
million tons of Ukrainian grains could be exported from ports and granaries.
The U.N. chief’s comment at New York City came hours after officials from
Ukraine, Russia and Turkey had met with U.N. officials at Istanbul. U.N.
Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said that “more technical work will now
be done”, but the “momentum is clear” on moving the grain to help ease on food
supply chain ecosystem and moderate the surging prices. Turkish Defense
Minister Hulusi Akar said that “joint control” would be established to
escort vessels with corns, grains, soybeans and sunflowers sailing in the Black
Sea and a separate coordination center would be formed at Istanbul to oversee
the operation.
Russia, Ukraine Sign Separate Grain Export Agreement
After days of intense negotiation, Ukraine and Russia seemed to be
at the closest point ever for an agreement. The agreement was formulated at the
behest of United Nations and Turkey. The agreement on July 22,
2022 was signed separately at Istanbul by Russia and Ukraine, paving
the way for 22 million tons of Ukrainian grains and other agricultural products
to be exported from the Black Sea ports. In addition, Russian fertilizer
and food will be also allowed to be exported as part of the effort to ease
global inflation. The agreement covers three Ukrainian ports: Odessa,
Chernomorsk and Yuzhny. Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu
and Ukrainian Infrastructure Minister Oleksandr Kubrakov signed the deal
separately with U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres and Turkish Defense
Minister Hulusi Akar as Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan
watched.
Port in Odessa Attacked with Russian Missiles Hours after Grain Deal Signed
No sooner than even a day had passed, Russian missiles had struck the port of Odessa on July 23, 2022. Two Kalibre cruise missiles had struck the infrastructure in the port area, but spared the grain silos. President Volodymyr Zelensky said that irrespective of what Russia “says and promises, it will find ways not to implement it".
First Ship with Grains Sails from Ukrainian Port
August 1, 2022 marked a landmark day in Ukraine-Russia conflict as a Sierra Leone-flagged ship, Razoni, set out from the Black Sea port of Odesa with 26,000 tons of corn destined for Lebanon, first such vessel with Ukrainian corn as part of a July 22, 2022, deal separately signed by Russia and Ukraine with the U.N. and Turkey. Razoni will make a stop at Istanbul for inspection before it continues its journey towards Lebanon. “The first grain ship since Russian aggression has left port”, twitted Ukraine’s infrastructure minister, Oleksandr Kubrakov. As part of the deal, a safe passageway has been created through mined waters of the Black Sea. The fertile Black Sea regions of Ukraine and Russia are major international exporter of grains, corn, soybean and sunflower, and Russia-imposed blockade since the February 24, 2022, invasion has led to accumulation of about 22 million tons of grains at Ukraine’s Black Sea ports and sky-high global price rises of food, fertilizer, and other essential items. The U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, main proponent of the grain agreement when he first floated the deal in April 2022, couldn’t resist his excitement as the first ship had taken off the port of Odesa. The U.N. chief wrote on Twitter: Razoni was loaded with “two commodities in short supply: corn and hope".
First Grain Ship Goes through Inspection at Istanbul
The first grain ship that is carrying corns from Odesa has been inspected on August 3, 2022 at Istanbul by the members of Joint Coordination Center—whose members have carried out the inspection—consisted of Russia, Ukraine, Turkey and the U.N. Razoni, carrying 26,000 tons of corns, subsequently sailed for Lebanon.
Six More Ships Given Green Signal to Leave Black Sea Ports
The overseer of the grain deal, Joint Coordination Center, reported on August 7, 2022 that six ships had been given permission to leave the Ukrainian ports of Odesa and Chornomorsk with corns, grains and sunflower for the Middle East, Africa and Asia.
Ship with Grains for Ethiopia Sets Sail
A U.N.-chartered ship, Brave Commander, on August 14, 2022 set sailing from the Black Sea port of Yuzhne in Ukraine. Brave Commander is carrying an estimated 23,000 metric tons of grains for Ethiopia. WFP Ukraine Coordinator Denise Brown expressed optimism during that day that “if the stars are aligned, we are very, very hopeful” that July 22, 2022, grain export agreement signed at Istanbul would be very helpful.
U.S. Buying 150,000 metric tons of Grain for Needy Nations, WFP Says
World Food Program on August 20, 2022 announced that the U.S. had decided to buy 150,000 metric tons of grains and ship the supplies from unblockaded Ukrainian ports to unspecified nations.
Russia Agrees to Extend the Grains Export Deal by 60 Days
A Russian delegation in talks with U.N. officials at Geneva said on
March 13, 2023 that Moscow would agree to extend the Black Sea Grain
Initiative by an additional 60 days instead of 120 days. The original
120-day agreement mediated by Turkey and the U.N. expired in November 2022, and
subsequently, it was extended. The new extension now expires March 18, 2023.
Responding to Russian announcement for a 60-day extension, U.N. vowed to “do
everything possible to preserve the integrity of the Black Sea Grain Initiative”.
The U.N. spotlighted the positive contribution of the Black Sea Grain
Initiative as 24 million tons of grains had been exported and more than
1,600 voyages were made under the deal. The grains export deal had a calming
and moderating effect on the global inflation imprimatur. Ukraine, though,
criticized Russia’s decision to extend the deal only for 60 days, instead of
120 days.
Grains Export Deal Extended amidst Conflicting Claims over Extension
Period
At the last minute, the U.N. and Turkish President Recep Tayyip
Erdogan on March 18, 2023 announced an extension of the grains export
agreement that had stabilized, to some extent, the global inflation outlook.
There is, though, confusion over the extension period. Ukrainian Deputy
Prime Minister Oleksandr Kubrakov tweeted that the deal had been extended for
120 days while Moscow insisted that it was extended for 60 days.
Hungary Joins Poland in Grain Import Suspension
On April 16, 2023, Hungary joined Poland to impose a suspension of
duty-free grain imports from Ukraine as Eastern European farmers were facing the
oversupply of grains in their market, thus plunging the grain prices. The
suspension will remain effective through June 30, 2023, Hungary’s
Agriculture Ministry has said.
Compromise Reached in Ukrainian Grain Oversupply Crisis
Faced with the resistance from the Eastern European farmers because of
depressing grain prices due to oversupplies from Ukraine, EU foreign ministers
on late April 28, 2023 struck a compromising deal that would allow five
Eastern European nations—Poland, Hungary, Bulgaria, Romania and Slovakia—to
temporarily ban key grain imports from Ukraine, but would facilitate their unfettered
shipment to the rest of the Europe, Middle East and Africa. Ukrainian
Finance Minister Sergii Marchenko lauded the last-minute deal that would particularly
help Africa and Middle East. The temporary ban by the five former Soviet-orbit
nation will include four key Ukrainian grain categories: wheat, maze,
rapeseed, and sunflower seed. Also, there will be a special focus on
whether additional controls are needed for a fifth import item, sunflower
oil. The deal saves the European Union from a humiliating internal
bickering for a successful U.N.-backed program that has helped Ukrainian
farmers and reined in, to a moot extent, a stubborn global inflation.
Russia Suspends the U.N. Grain Deal
Russia on July 17, 2023 suspended implementation of the landmark Black
Sea Grain Initiative, saying that Russian fertilizer and food needed to be
exported without any hindrance. Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov said
that Russian section of the agreement needed to be implemented before the
overall implementation of the Black Sea Grain Initiative resumed. The
landmark deal reached at the behest of the U.N. and Turkey allowed Ukraine to
export 32.9 million metric tons of food and grains, mostly to Africa, Middle
East, and Asia. Russia complained that its exports of food and fertilizer
had suffered because importers were hesitant of receiving Russian grain and
fertilizer shipment because of western pressure. Turkey, which hosts Joint
Coordination Center at Istanbul to oversee and operate the grain
export operation, and the U.N. have expressed hope that the Black Sea Grain
Initiative will be resumed soon.
Guterres Urges Russia to Resume Grain Exports
U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres on July 24, 2023 appealed Russia to
withdraw its decision to suspend the Black Sea Grain Initiative as the
globe’s poor people were the ones who had been harmed because of severe food
shortage. The global wheat prices rose, on the average, more than 14%
and corn prices rose at least 10% since Moscow’s January 17, 2023,
decision to suspend the U.N.- and Turkey-brokered grain export deal.
*********************** UKRAINIAN GRAIN EXPORT
Russian Missiles Strike Central Ukrainian City, U.S. Embassy Issues
Alert
Russia on July 14, 2022 struck Vinnytsia, a city of pre-war
population of 340,000 and 167 miles southwest of Kyiv, with Kalibr
cruise missiles launched from submarines in the Black Sea, killing at least 23
people and wounding more than 100. Vinnytsia regional Governor Serhiy Borzov
said that Ukrainian defense system downed two of the four incoming missiles. National
Police Chief Ihor Klymenko said that only six bodies were identified by the
end of the day. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky accused Russia of
“destroying the civilian population”. The missile strike happened as
representatives from more than 40 nations met at The Hague, Netherlands on
July 14, 2022 to discuss on prosecuting the war crimes committed in
Ukraine. Ukrainian Interior Minister Denys Monastyrsky echoed Zelensky’s
sentiment, and called the Vinnytsia attack as “war crimes".
U.S. Embassy in Kyiv issued an alert on July 14, 2022 for all American civilians
staying in Ukraine to leave immediately. The alert was issued in light of Vinnytsia
attack.
International Criminal Court Hosts Accountability Conference to Probe “War
Crimes”
More than 40 nations participated in the Ukraine Accountability
Conference in The Hague. Opening the conference on July 14, 2022, ICC
Chief Prosecutor Karim Khan called for an “overarching strategy” to pursue
and prosecute more than 338 war crimes that had been so far recorded in Ukraine
since the war had begun on February 24, 2022. As the conference is underway, missile
strike on the city of Vinnytsia had killed at least 23 and wounded more than
100. Ukraine’s prosecutor general Iryna Venediktova said that at least three
children were killed in the Vinnytsia attack. U.S. State Department human
rights envoy Uzra Zeya deplored Russian “attacks on schools, hospitals,
playgrounds”.
Zelensky Fires Chief Prosecutor, Intel Chief
As evidence is mounting on a possible collusion with Russian army in the
ranks of the Ukrainian government agencies, Ukrainian President Volodymyr
Zelensky on July 17, 2022 sacked Ivan Bakanov, head of the country’s
security service, SBU, and Prosecutor General Iryna Venediktova.
Venediktova was replaced by her deputy, Oleksiy Symonenko.
Zelensky Installs a New Security Chief
A day after President Volodymyr Zelensky fired his security chief and replaced his prosecutor general, he signed a decree on July 18, 2022 to name the first deputy head of the SBU, Vasyl Maliuk, as the acting head.
Russia’s Foreign Minister Calls for Annexation of Greater Areas
Expressing Kremlin’s expansionist agenda, Russian Foreign Minister
Sergey Lavrov on July 20, 2022 told RT Television and RIA Novosti
that Moscow would keep the recently conquered areas in Kherson and
Zaphorizhzhia under its control in addition to Donbas. Referring to
a proposal discussed in March 2022 related to Russia’s offer to Ukraine to
have areas under Russian control at that time, Lavrov told on July 20, 2022
that the geography had changed over the past four months and now the new areas
of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia were also under Moscow’s long-term
plan to be part of accession. Sergey Lavrov’s comment came a day after U.S.
National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby’s statement on July
19, 2022 that Kremlin might be looking for a referendum on accession of Kherson
and Zaporizhzhia in September 2022.
However, Ukraine is not far behind in mounting a counterattack on the
lost territories such as Kherson. On July 20, 2022, Ukraine used
U.S.-supplied HIMARS (High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems) launchers to
launch rocket attack on the 0.9-mile Antonivskyi Bridge over the Dnieper
River, targeting a key infrastructure used to sustain Russian occupation in
Kherson region. The Moscow-appointed governor of Kherson region, Vladimir
Saldo, said on July 20, 2022 after the Ukrainian rocket attack on
the Antonivskyi Bridge, second such attack in as many days, that cars
were continuing to use the bridge, but heavy-duty vehicles were being re-routed
to use a dam about 50 miles away to cross the Dnieper River. The deputy
governor of Kherson, Moscow-backed Kirill Stremousov, said that pontoons
are being erected alongside Antonivsky Bridge to allow traffic to cross
the vital river.
Russia Attacks Second-Largest City with Cluster Munition
A day after Russian foreign minister raised alarm by expressing Kremlin’s
plan to annex broader areas, Russia used cluster bombs on July 21, 2022
to pound a shopping complex, a medical facility and a mosque in Ukraine’s
second-largest city, Kharkiv. “The Russian army is randomly shelling”
the city, Kharkiv Mayor Ilhor Terekhov said. Kharkiv Governor Oleh
Syniehubov condemned the attack. Russia also attacked the southern city of Mylokaiv
overnight as well as Donbas cities of Kramatorsk and Kostiantynivka.
Lavrov Says it Straight: “Get Rid of the Regime” in Kyiv
Through a diplomatic swing in Africa, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey
Lavrov, addressing an Arab League session at Cairo on July 24,
2022, didn’t mince any words as he pledged to help the Ukrainian people to “get
rid of the regime” by President Volodymyr Zelensky, marking the most
straightforward comment to the date reflecting Moscow’s desire to overthrow the
regime.
Russia Targets Odessa Villages, Ports in Mykolaiv with Long-range
Airstrikes
Russia on July 26, 2022 attacked buildings in coastal villages in
Odessa and port infrastructure in Mykolaiv, undermining the July
22, 2022 Istanbul accord of freeing about 22 million tons of grains and shipping
to African and other nations reeling under the burden of inflation. Ukrainian
authorities alleged that Russia had leveraged Tu-22M3 bombers and Su-30
and Su-35 fighter jets from the Black Sea to strike targets in Mykolaiv and
Odessa. Kherson’s Russia-appointed governor, Kirill Stremousov,
bragged on July 26, 2022 that, just like Kherson, Russia’s RIA
Novosti reported, Mykolaiv and Odessa regions would soon be liberated too.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, currently making rounds through Africa, said on
July 26, 2022 in Uganda, where he had arrived from Congo, that he was optimistic
about a negotiated end to the war as “everybody knows that any hostilities end
at the negotiating table".
In Donetsk region, Russian forces continued shelling all the big
cities, including Bakhmut, Avdiivka and Toretsk, as well as towns and
villages in what Kyiv-backed governor of the region, Gov. Pavlo Kyrylenko,
had said that “there is not a single safe place left” in Donetsk.
Strategic Bridge in Kherson Knocked out by Ukrainian Rockets
That the U.S.-supplied weapons are making a real difference on the
ground to tilt the military outcome, even marginally, in favor of Ukraine has played
out as precision strikes launched from HIMARS (High Mobility Artillery
Rocket Systems) rocket launchers late July 26, 2022 significantly
damaged the 0.9-mile Antonivskyi Bridge over the Dnieper River.
The bridge is the main link in Kherson region. Russia-appointed
regional Deputy Governor Kirill Stremousov said on July 27, 2022
that the bridge had become impassable because of the big holes created due to
rocket strikes and the structure had become unstable. There is an alternative
crossing 50 miles away in Kakhovka, where there is a hydroelectric
dam, that has also come under the Ukrainian fire, but remains operational
till today. HIMARS launchers are more potent, more precise, and faster
than Russia-made rocket launchers such as Smerch, Uragan and Tornado. Ukrainian
presidential adviser Mykhailo Podolyak mocked Russia on Twitter in
the aftermath of knocking out of the Antonivskyi Bridge, saying that Russian
army should either swim Dnieper River, or leave Kherson, as there would not be
any more chance. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said on July 27,
2022 that Russia had lost more than 40,000 soldiers in the conflict since February
24, 2022. President Zelensky’s estimate is not independently verified.
Russia Attacks Kyiv for the First Time in Several Weeks
Confounding the authorities and public alike, Russia on July 28, 2022
fired six missiles from the Black Sea to target the Ukrainian capital of
Kyiv. The attack on Kyiv was highly unexpected as Russia focused on
conquering the industrial east of Donbas and south. One missile hit a military
unit at a village, Liutizh, close to Kyiv. Ukrainian forces have shot
down one missile near Bucha. Kyiv regional Governor Oleksiy Kuleba
said that at least 15 people were wounded in missile attacks on Kyiv.
Last year, President Volodymyr Zelensky declared July 28 as the
Day of Statehood. This year is the first time that Ukrainians are marking
the Day of Statehood on July 28. The attack on the Ukrainian capital on
the same day that Ukraine is observing the Day of Statehood for the first time
is highly symbolic and carries diplomatic weight.
Separately, Chernihiv regional Governor Vyacheslav Chaus also
reported on July 28, 2022 missile attacks on his region for the first
time in several weeks. He accused Russia of launching missile strikes from
Belarus. The attacks on Kyiv and Chernihiv came a day after Donetsk’s
Russia-backed leader, Denis Pushilin, urged Russian army to “liberate
Russian cities founded by the Russian people—Kyiv, Chernihiv, Poltava, Odesa,
Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Zaphorizhzhia, Lutsk".
Prison Holding Ukrainians Attacked; Dozens Dead
A prison in Russia-backed, rebel-controlled area in Donetsk came
under attack on July 29, 2022 that had killed 53 Ukrainian POWs
and wounded about 75. Russia and Ukraine accused each other of carrying
out the attack on the prison at Olenivka in the Donetsk People’s
Republic. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky called the attack on the
prison as Russia’s “deliberate, cynical, calculated mass murder”. On the other
hand, the deputy chief of Russia-backed Donetsk People’s Republic, Eduard
Basurin, said that Kyiv used HIMARS launchers to carry out the attack to
silence their defenders—mostly from the Mariupol’s sprawling steel plant—lest they
shared uncomfortable truth.
Drone Attack on Russian Naval Headquarters in Crimea
In a daring attack, an unmanned drone delivered an explosive device to
strike the Russia’s Black Sea Fleet headquarters at Sevastopol in the
Crimean Peninsula on July 31, 2022, wounding at least six people and
forcing to cancel a naval event to mark the Russian Navy Day planned to
be held in the compound. Separately, a Ukrainian grain merchant, Oleksiy Vadatursky, one of the country’s
wealthiest men, and his wife, Raisa, were killed in a Russian airstrike on
Mykolaiv that Kyiv had accused Kremlin of deliberately targeting,
Russian Supreme Court Labels Azov Regiment a Terrorist Organization
Russian Supreme Court on August 2, 2022 branded the Azov
Regiment, whose fighters had put up weeks of resistance at a sprawling
steel plant in Mariupol, as a terrorist outfit.
IAEA Chief Warns Europe’s Largest Nuclear Plant to be “Out of Control”
U.N. nuclear chief Rafael Grossi on August 3, 2022 sounded alarm bell
that the lack of operational authority at the Zaphorizhzhia nuclear
plant had led to a very uncertain situation and an “out of control” state. The
director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency has expressed
deep concern in an interview with The Associated Press over the fragmented
administrative and operational structure at the plant as most of the workers
are Ukrainians with the plant itself running under the Russian control, often
leading to tense situations. Russia has seized the city of Enerhodar, where Europe’s
largest nuclear power plant is located, in early March 2022.
Russia Resumes Punishing Attack on Donetsk
Russia on August 6, 2022 struck mercilessly Donetsk cities
of Poprosny, Avdiivka, Soledar and Pervomaiskiy, according to Donetsk
Governor Pavlo Kyrylenko. At least five civilians were killed and more than
14 wounded in Donetsk attacks on August 6, 2022. The governor of Dnipropetrovsk
region, Valentyn Reznichenko, said that Russia overnight attacked the
city of Nikopol—just across the Dnieper River from Zaporizhzhia
Nuclear Power Plant—with the Soviet-era Grad rockets. Ukrainian
government-run atomic organization, Enerhoatom, has alleged on August
6, 2022 that Russians, who control Europe’s largest nuclear power plant,
were using the Zaporizhzhia plant to shelter and store ammunitions for attacking
other areas, especially the Ukrainian-controlled Nikopol across the
river.
Russian Airbase in Crimea Rocked by Explosions
Explosions rocked the sprawling Saki Airfield in Crimea on August 9,
2022. Crimea’s regional leader, Sergei Aksyonov, said that at least
one person was killed. Russia denied that it was a Ukrainian attack that had
led to the billowing of smoke over the Black Sea. If the allegation is correct,
this will mark a new chapter for Ukrainian forces in taking the resistance to the
aggressor’s court.
Explosions in Russian Airbase in Crimea is the Job of Ukrainian Special
Forces
The Washington Post reported August 10, 2022 based on anonymous Ukrainian government
sources that the explosions that had rocked the Saki Air Force base in Crimea
a day earlier were carried out by the Ukrainian special operations forces. At
least three explosions were reported in the Saki Air Base on August
9, 2022 and nine aircraft had been damaged, according to The Washington
Post.
U.N. Calls for Demilitarized Zone in Europe’s Largest Nuclear Power
Plant
United Nations on August 12, 2022 called for Russia to withdraw its troops from
Europe’s largest nuclear power plant, Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant, to
avert any accidental shelling. Russia’s U.N. envoy, though, expressed doubt on
what the U.N. had meant by “demilitarized” perimeter around the nuclear power
plant.
On August 12, 2022, another container, Brave Commander,
chartered by the U.N. was readying to leave Ukraine with grains for Djibouti to deliver to
people in Ethiopia. During the day, two other ships with grains and corns had
left the Black Sea ports.
Ship with Grains for Ethiopia Sets Sail, Russia Asks Ukraine to Stop
Attacking Nuclear Plant
A U.N.-chartered ship, Brave Commander, on August 14, 2022
set sailing from the Black Sea port of Yuzhne in Ukraine. Brave
Commander is carrying an estimated 23,000 metric tons of grains for Ethiopia.
WFP Ukraine Coordinator Denise Brown expressed optimism during that day
that “if the stars are aligned, we are very, very hopeful” that July 22,
2022, grain export agreement signed at Istanbul would be very
helpful.
On the front line, Russia on August 14, 2022 fired rockets pummeling
Mykolaiv region, north of Russia-occupied Kherson region.
Ukrainian authority said that at least one person was killed in rocket attack
in the Mykolaiv village of Bereznehuvate. Meanwhile, Russian envoy to
international organizations, Mikhail Ulyanov, implored Ukraine on
August 14, 2022 to cease attacking Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant
in the city of Enerhodar.
Explosions Rock Ammunition Depot in Crimea; Putin Accuses US of Hegemony
Six days after at least three explosions hit Saki Air Base in Crimea
that had damaged nine aircraft, explosions rocked an ammunition depot in Crimea
on August 16, 2022. Russia described the explosions at the munition depot in
the Crimean village of Mayskoye an “act of sabotage”. If Ukraine
indeed is behind the sabotage at the munition depot at the Crimean village
of Mayskoye as well as Saki Air Base on August 10, 2022, that
will represent a new escalation in the Ukraine crisis and a turning point for
Ukraine from a defensive posture to taking the fight straight into Russia’s
doorstep.
Meanwhile, addressing a security conference at Moscow, Russian
President Vladimir Putin on August 16, 2022 told the attending officials
from Asia, Africa and Latin America that Washington wanted “conflicts to retain
their hegemony”. Russia Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu told the same
conference that western war specialists were not only giving intelligence to
Ukrainians, they were also training the Ukrainians to fight against Russia.
Erdogan, U.N. Chief Meet with Zelensky; Russia Deploys Advanced Arms in Key
Enclave
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and U.N. Secretary General Antonio Guterres
on August 18, 2022 met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky
at the western city of Lviv, but the outcome of the session might be far
from any breakthrough point. Erdogan will now confer with Russian President
Vladimir Putin. One of the key discussion points was securing the largest
nuclear power plant in Europe as Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Facility was
encountering daily barrage of assaults which Russia and Ukraine were accusing
each other of. Overnight, Russian assault continued in Kharkiv which
Ukrainian authorities had blamed for at least 17 deaths. Russian
authorities, on the other hand, said that at least 90 mercenaries were killed
in Kharkiv. Russia also deployed aircraft with hypersonic missiles in Kaliningrad,
an enclave surrounded by NATO nations.
Russia Downs Drones over Crimea
Russia-backed Crimean authorities said on August 20, 2022 that
small drones were detected over the headquarters of Russian Black Sea Fleet
in Sevastopol earlier in the day, and the existing “air defense systems
successfully hit” all the targets, according to Crimea’s regional governor, Sergei
Aksyonov. Sevastopol’s local Russia-backed leader, Mikhail Razvozhaev,
said that the city’s air defense systems was deployed again later in the day.
9,000 Ukrainian Troops Killed; Shelling Pushes Europe’s Largest Nuclear Plant
to Brink
At a Veterans Day’s event on August 22, 2022, Ukrainian
military chief, Gen. Valerii Zaluzhnyi, said that about 9,000 Ukrainian soldiers
had died in the battle with Russia that had begun with February 24, 2022,
Russian invasion. The conflict had reached at a “grinding” point. The city
across the Dnieper River, Nikopol, has been experiencing Russian
shelling and airstrikes since July 12, 2022. Russia-installed administrator
of Zaporizhzhia region, Vladimir Rogov, on August 22, 2022 blamed
Ukrainian forces for continuous shelling on Europe’s largest nuclear power
plant. According to the U.N., 5587 civilians had been killed and more
than 7,890 wounded since February 24, 2022, Russian invasion of
Ukraine. Both numbers were thought to be severe undercounts.
U.S. to Announce an Additional $3 billion Military Aid to Ukraine
The Associated Press reported on August 23, 2022 that U.S. would soon announce an additional
$3 billion aid measure to help train and better equip Ukrainians in the
run-up to the onset of winter. This $3 billion tranche will come from a broader
package, Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative, passed by the U.S.
Congress.
Ukraine Marks Independence Day as Rocket Attack on Train Station Kills
at least 22
A Russian rocket attack on a central Ukrainian train station on
August 24, 2022 killed at least 22 people and wounded dozens. The rocket
attack on a train station at Chaplyne, a town of about 3,500 people in
the central Dnipropetrovsk region, occurred on a significant day for
Ukrainian people as people were celebrating the Independence Day amidst
the conflict.
Authorities Distribute Iodine Capsules
As the fighting near the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant is
continuing, Ukrainian authorities are distributing iodine capsules as a
preventive measure among the residents near Europe’s largest nuclear power
plant, according to an August 27, 2022, report by The Associated
Press.
IAEA Inspectors en route to Europe’s Largest Nuclear Power Plant
After months of prodding and pleading with both the warring sides, IAEA’s
“Support and Assistance Mission……is now on its way” to Zaporizhzhia Nuclear
Power Plant, tweeted IAEA chief Rafael Grossi on August 29, 2022. The mission can’t have any higher stake
as the power plant is at the throes of receiving an accidental or deliberate attack
that can lead to a 1986 Chernobyl-type situation one more time. Ukrainian
Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said that “without an exaggeration, this
mission will be the hardest in the history of IAEA”. Ukraine’s atomic energy
agency, Energoatom, said that Russia would try to cover up its military
activities inside the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant in advance of IAEA
inspectors’ arrival.
On the battlefront on August 29, 2022, Ukrainian army was reported to
breach the first line of Russian defense in Kherson region.
IAEA Inspectors Set out in Convoy to Nuclear Power Plant on a
Treacherous Route
IAEA inspectors in the early morning of August 31, 2022 started
their journey from Kyiv in a convoy of SUVs and other vehicles on
treacherous roads which were parts of active war zone. The convoy, en route to Zaporizhzhia
Nuclear Power Plant, stopped for the overnight stay at the city of Zaporizhzhia,
still 70 miles away from Europe’s largest nuclear power plant.
IAEA Inspectors Arrive at the Nuclear Power Plant
On September 1, 2022, IAEA inspectors led by International
Atomic Energy Agency chief Rafael Grossi arrived at the Zaporizhzhia
Nuclear Power Plant in the city of Enerhodar after staying overnight
at the city of Zaporizhzhia. A photo circulated by The Associated
Press shows Grossi talking to Ukrainian Energy Minister German
Galushenko and Petro Kotin, the head of Energoatom, Ukraine’s national atomic
energy agency, on a road to the power plant. “We are going to have a continued
presence there at the plant with some of my experts”, said Rafael Grossi
after the 14-member delegation took its first look at the plant. Ukrainian President
Volodymyr Zelensky, though, criticized the IAEA team for not taking
reporters with them.
IAEA Head Raises Alarm over “Physical Integrity” of the Nuclear Power
Plant
Fighting and shelling continued on September 2, 2022 near the Zaporizhzhia
Nuclear Power Plant as the IAEA inspectors were conducting operational
safety assessment inside the Europe’s largest nuclear power plant. IAEA
delegation began their thorough assessment on September 1, 2022 and
continued on September 2, 2022 for the second day. IAEA
Director-General Rafael Grossi told reporters in Vienna on September 2,
2022 after returning from the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant that he
was concerned over the plant’s “physical integrity". During the day, Aleksandr Volga, the Kremlin-appointed mayor of
Enerhodar, the city that hosts the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, has
said that out of six reactors, only two are operational now.
Nuclear Power Plant Running on Reserve Line, IAEA says
As the fighting near the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant is
continuing unabated which Russia and Ukraine have blamed each other for and
local authorities are distributing iodine capsules among people in
Ukrainian-controlled areas, Europe’s largest nuclear power plant has been cut
off from four operational lines connecting to the grid system. Earlier, only
one line was operational, but on September 3, 2022 the remaining fourth
line became non-operational, according to Rafael Grossi, the IAEA chief,
based on information from the ground provided by IAEA inspectors. The nuclear
power plant is now running on a reserve line that connects with a thermal power
plant. The nuclear power plant is sending the generated electricity through the
reserve line, and it is getting the electricity too via reserve line to keep the
facility functioning, including cooling and other functional systems.
Plant’s Reserve Line Disconnected, Facility Operating now on “Island Mode”
IAEA and Energoatom, the Ukrainian atomic agency, reported on September 5, 2022 that
the reserve line that was the lifeline for the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power
Plant in recent days had been disconnected during the day because of a fire
due to shelling that Ukraine and Russia blamed on each other. The reserve line
itself is not damaged, and it will be restored once the fire is extinguished. As
a result, the critical functions of Europe’s largest nuclear power plant—including
cooling and other functions—are being carried out on the “island mode”,
a very precarious and instable state of operation in which the only one out of
six reactors that is operational now is supplying the needed electricity to the
entire facility.
U.N. Nuclear Watchdog Recommends “Protection Zone” around Nuclear Plant
IAEA chief Rafael Grossi on September 6, 2022 submitted an
evaluation report to the U.N. Security Council based on the on-ground
experience of and insight into Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant by the
U.N. nuclear agency inspectors. The report strongly recommends setting up of a “nuclear
safety and security protection zone” around the Europe’s largest nuclear power
plant.
U.S. Accuses Russia of Forcible Relocation of Hundreds of Thousands of
Ukrainians
U.S. Ambassador Linda Thomas-Greenfield told the U.N. on September 7,
2022 that Russia had so
far forcibly transferred between 900,000 and 1.6 million Ukrainians,
many of them to isolated regions in Russia’s Far East. The accusation came
during a special session of the U.N. called by U.S. and Albania to discuss
Russia’s so called “filtration operation".
Ukraine Racks up Gain in Counteroffensive as Fighting near the Nuclear
Plant Continues
Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant remained at a precarious state as the fighting
near the plant continued on September 9, 2022 unabated. Meanwhile, Ukrainian
fighters on September 9, 2022 pushed the Russians out from at least 30
settlements in the country’s northeast. The success of Ukrainian military
counteroffensive in Kharkiv region is considered as a remarkable
turnaround, according to many defense analysts.
Russia Retreating from Kharkiv; Nuclear Power Plant Shuts down for
Safety
The Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant was shut down completely on September
11, 2022 to prevent any potential disaster. Europe’s largest nuclear power
plant was running on “island mode” since September 5, 2022.
Meanwhile, Ukraine continued to retake territories in the northeastern Kharkiv
province on September 11, 2022. A day before, Russian authorities
sugarcoated its mounting battlefield setbacks as a strategic retreat to consolidate
its defense in Donbas. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on September
10, 2022 taunted in response that Russia army was doing what it did the
best: running “showing its back”. Kharkiv Governor Oleh Syniehubov said
on September 11, 2022 that Ukrainian army retook more than 40
settlements from Russian control, a battlefront feat for Ukraine’s
counterattack strategy. On September 11, 2022, Ukrainian army seized two
key towns: Chkalovske and Izyum, a command and supply hub for the
Russian army.
Ukraine’s President Present in Flag Hoisting at the Retaken City
In a symbolic, but significant, milestone of Ukraine’s assertiveness on
the battlefront, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on September 14,
2022 was on hand to witness the flag-hoisting ceremony at the center of the
just retaken city of Izium. National anthem punctuated the air as President
Zelensky watched the flag being hoisted on the top of the pole. Ousting Russian forces from Izium
marked a significant turnaround for Ukrainian military as the city, seized by
Kremlin in the first weeks of the invasion, served as a supply command center for
Russian army in Kharkiv region and beyond.
Mass Graves Found in Izium; Putin Meets with Xi in Central Asia
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said on September 15, 2022 in a nightly video
address that mass graves were found at the outskirt of the just-liberated city
of Izium in Kharkiv. Local authorities found remains of at least 440
bodies at a mass burial pit.
Russian President Vladimir Putin lauded China’s role as “balanced” in Ukrainian
conflict on September 15, 2022 in the eight-nation Sanghai Cooperation
Organization (SCO) summit at Samarkand, Uzbekistan. Putin met with Chinese
President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the summit being participated by China,
Russia, India, Pakistan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan.
However, difference in opinion over Ukraine has been palpable in the press
conference after the summit as Putin tried to assuage the Chinese concern over
Ukraine. Putin said, in reference to Xi: “we understand your questions and your
concern in this regard”, but address them “with a detailed explanation of our
stand”. Chinese government issued a statement after the Putin-Xi meeting,
expressing “strong support” for Russia’s “core interests".
Russia-backed Leaders Announce Referendums in Four Regions
As Russia is losing significant swaths of territories to assertive Ukrainians
in the northeast and south, leaders installed by Kremlin in Donetsk,
Luhansk, Kherson and Russia-controlled parts Zaporizhzhia on September 20, 2022
announced a five-day (September 23-27, 2022) referendum on whether
to join the Russian federation. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dymtro Kuleba
called the referendum as a total “sham”. U.S. National Security Adviser Jake
Sullivan said that “we will never recognize” this referendum.
Russia Orders Limited Military Draft
Faced with battlefield losses, sagging morale and growing internal
dissonance, Russian President Vladimir Putin on September 21, 2022
ordered partial mobilization of reservists, marking the first such call since the
World War II. The move risks creating anger and dissidence amongst Russian
population as the move is deeply popular. In his 14-minute televised address to
the nation, Putin has announced partial military mobilization that will
increase the military ranks by at least an additional 300,000-strong troops,
cautioned the West, though not explicitly, about a fallout of a nuclear strike,
and thrown his support for separation referenda in four Ukrainian regions—Donetsk,
Luhansk, Kherson, and Russia-controlled parts of Zaporizhzhia. Within hours
of televised announcement of partial mobilization, thousands of demonstrators poured
onto the streets of Moscow and other cities. Although Putin’s order is meant
for partial mobilization of the reservists, it’s vague and many Russians believe
that there will be enhancement of the scope and scale of future mobilization.
Many young Russians have started to flee the country by road and air.
Russia Urged to End the Horror
At a U.N. Security Council meeting on September 22, 2022 that
took place alongside the ongoing, weeklong 77th annual General
Assembly session, U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken took
Russia to the task, urging Moscow to end the “horror” being perpetrated in
Ukraine. Blinken also criticized Russia’s on-and-off-again “reckless nuclear
threat”. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov used foul-mouthed words
against Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, calling him a “son of a
bitch, but he’s our son of a bitch”. Ukraine’s top diplomat Dmytro Kuleba
chided Russian foreign minister for using inappropriate words at the world’s
august body. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov didn’t bother to
stay at the U.N. Security Council meeting until the end. He appeared
just before his speech and left immediately after it, attracting condemnation
from other nations. Meanwhile, International Criminal Court in March 2022 has
opened an investigation into rights abuses in Ukraine, but is yet to announce
any charges. ICC Chief Prosecutor Karim Khan reported to the U.N.
Security Council on September 22, 2022 that his body was sending more
investigators to Ukraine.
Turkey, Saudi Arabia Work towards Successful Prisoner Swap
In a positive development, 215 Ukrainian prisoners were freed on September
22, 2022 in exchange for a high-value pro-Russian Ukrainian oligarch, Viktor
Medvedchuk, who had slipped out of home detention days before February
24, 2022, invasion, only to be arrested in April 2022. Saudi
Arabia and Turkey mediated the prisoner swap. Many of the Ukrainian
prisoners faced death penalty under the Russian judicial system.
U.N. Body Finds Evidence of War Crimes
A panel formed earlier this year by Geneva-based Human Rights Council
found evidence of war crimes in the battlefields of Ukraine. The Commission
of Inquiry on Ukraine focused on four areas as part of its rights abuse
inquiry: Kyiv, Kharkiv, Sumy and Chernihiv. In its most up to
date report released on September 23, 2022, the HRC-mandated Commission
called out several examples of human rights violations such as electrical
shocks, beatings and forced nudity in Russia-backed, or Russia-aligned
rebel-operated, detention centers. The commission’s chairman, Erik Mose,
on September 23, 2022 told the Human Rights Council that based on
the “evidence gathered by the commission, it has concluded that war crimes have
been committed in Ukraine”. The Commission of Inquiry on Ukraine’s work may
pave the way for the International Criminal Court to pursue war crimes
charges against alleged perpetrators, most of them are Russians.
Annexation Referendum Begun in Four Regions
A Russia-orchestrated referendum to join with Russia has begun on September
23, 2022 and will run through September 27, 2022. The referendum is being
held in Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson, and Russia-controlled parts of
Zaporizhzhia.
Pro-Moscow Forces Claim Victory in Annexation Referendum
On September 27, 2022, pro-Moscow authorities in Zaporizhzhia,
Kherson, Luhansk and Donetsk claimed overwhelming victory in the referendum
that asked voters to ratify joining with Russia. The yes votes were 93% in
Zaporizhzhia, 87% in Kherson, 98% in Luhansk and 99% in Donetsk, respectively.
The referendum was held for five days from September 23, 2022 to September
27, 2022. West has slammed the referendum as sham.
Two Pipelines under Baltic Sea Damaged
Two pipelines under the Baltic Sea that ships gas from Russia to Europe
have been found to be leaking on September 27, 2022. Experts and
European leaders called the leaks as an act of sabotage. The leaks in pipes were
happened near Denmark. Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen said
on September 27, 2022 “these are deliberate actions” and “not accidents”. Swedish
Acting Premier Magdalena Andersson concurred, saying that “it’s probably a
case of sabotage".
Putin Officially Annexes Four Regions
Russian President Vladimir Putin, hosting the Russia-appointed regional heads of
four just-annexed regions—Vladimir Saido of Kherson, Yevgeny Balitsky of
Zaporizhzhia, Denis Pushilin of the Donetsk People’s Republic and Leonid
Pasechnik of Luhansk People’s Republic—on September 30, 2022 signed
the annexation agreement at Kremlin. In a matching diplomatic rebuttal, Ukrainian
President Volodymyr Zelensky posted a video of him signing an application
for membership of NATO.
Russian Forces Leave a Key Ukrainian City in Donetsk
On October 1, 2022, Russian forces made a deliberative choice by
leaving the city of Lyman that had worked as a key supply chain link and
a major military hub. Ukrainian flag was seen to flying at the city center of
this key city in Donetsk region.
Russian Soldiers Leave their Fallen Compadres Behind as they Evacuate
another City
Three days after Russian soldiers left Lyman, a strategic city in
Donetsk that worked as a staging ground for Russian army buildup in the Donbas
region, a visiting team from The Associated Press on October 4, 2022
found bodies of at least 18 Russian soldiers on the streets, showing an
absolute disarray in the Russian military ranks. Also, during the day, the
upper house of the Russian parliament put a stamp of approval for the annexation
of four Ukrainian regions that had a referendum recently. Responding to the
move by the upper house of Russian parliament, Ukrainian President Volodymyr
Zelensky shut out any possibility for negotiation with Russia, attracting
another threatening retort from Kremlin as Spokesman Dmitry Peskov
added: “we will wait for the incumbent president to change his position or wait
for a future Ukrainian president who would revise his stands in the interests
of the Ukrainian people".
As Russian desperation on the battlefield is becoming clearer by the
day, its punishing attacks on civilian targets are becoming harsher. Several
missiles hit the second-largest city of Ukraine, Kharkiv, on October 4, 2022.
Kharkiv Governor Oleh Syniehubov reported one death in missile attack.
Russian missiles also struck Nikopol in the south.
Additional $625 million in Military Aid Announced by Biden
Administration
On October 4, 2022, Biden administration announced an additional
tranche of $625 million in military aid, including HIMARS
launchers, for Ukraine.
Putin Signs Final Annexation Papers; Approves Europe’s Largest Nuclear
Plant’s Takeover
As the battleground losses are mounting, Russian President Vladimir
Putin is becoming more desperate. On October 5, 2022, Putin signed
the final annexation papers to annex Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, Donetsk and
Luhansk as Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov hinted additional
annexation without saying which regions. President Vladimir Putin on October
5, 2022 signed another decree to empower Russian military to take over the Zaporizhzhia
Nuclear Power Plant. Ukrainian Foreign Ministry called the move as a
criminal act.
Russia Inflicts Damage on Apartments, Killing Dozens
On October 6, 2022, Russian missiles rained on the city of Zaporizhzhia
and pulverized the inhabited apartments. 33 miles away, Europe’s largest
nuclear power plan stood as a reminder of a potential catastrophe as President
Vladimir Putin had signed a day earlier to take over the Zaporizhzhia
Nuclear Power Plant, leading IAEA to double its monitors at the facility
from two to four.
On October 7, 2022, Ukrainian authorities upped the estimate of
deaths in the city of Zaporizhzhia to 14 and reported injuries of
another 12. Zaporizhzhia Governor Oleksandr Starukh said during the day
that Russian missile strikes continued overnight. He added that, in addition to
missiles, Russia had used Iranian Shahed-136 drones to attack apartments and
infrastructure.
A Key Bridge over the Strait of Kerch Damaged by Explosion
In a severe jolt to Kremlin’s prestige, profile and military prowess, an
explosion on October 8, 2022 rocked the Kerch Bridge, a $4 billion,
12-mile bridge connecting the Russian mainland and Crimea, and
significantly damaged portions of it. Although neither Russian nor Ukrainian
authorities pinned blame on anyone, media reports circulated that Ukrainian
special security arm, SBU, was behind the 6AM (local) explosion of a truck. Black
plumes were seen emerging and clouding the sky over the bridge. In 2018,
President Vladimir Putin himself inaugurated the landmark bridge, connecting
Russia with Crimea via traffic and train, as a symbol of Russia’s consolidation
of Crimean Peninsula. Ukrainian authorities, though, celebrated the explosion
in Kerch Bridge through social media sites.
Putin Calls the Bridge Explosion a “Terrorist Act”
A smoldering bridge from a truck bomb with a backdrop of a long freight
train over Kerch Bridge is being viewed by hundreds of millions of
people around the world, sending an ominous signal of Russian vulnerability as
the invasion of Ukraine has reached a quagmire. On October 9, 2022, a
day after the truck explosion on the Kerch Bridge, Russian President
Vladimir Putin called it a “terrorist act".
Russia Retaliates with Barrage of Airstrikes on Kyiv, Other Cities
A day after calling the explosion of a gargantuan bridge connecting
Crimea and Russia a “terrorist act”, Russian President Vladimir Putin on
October 10, 2022 unleashed a brutal barrage of airstrikes on Kyiv and other
cities. The hours-long punitive strikes in Kyiv alone killed at least eight
people and wounded more than 24. The strikes hit the capital’s sprawling
and sizzling Shevchenko district, according to Kyiv Mayor Vitali
Klitchko.
The General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces said that 75 missiles
were launched and 41 of them had been neutered. Ukrainian President Volodymyr
Zelensky said that Russia attacked with multiple missiles and Iranian
drones.
General Assembly Begins Debating on Annexation
A European Union-initiated effort led to a U.N. General Assembly session
to begin debate on October 10, 2022 on the recently orchestrated
annexation of four regions—Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, Luhansk and Donetsk.
The session began hours after Russia pulverized with airstrikes on Kyiv and
other cities. Russia called the U.N. General Assembly session on annexation and
resulting debate as one-sided and proposed a vote on a potential EU resolution
on secret ballots. However, nations rejected that proposal by 107-13 margins,
with 39 abstentions.
G-7 Stand Firm amidst Russian Strikes against Kyiv, Other Cities
As the Russian airstrikes and kamikaze drone attacks on Kyiv and other
cities continued for the second day on October 11, 2022, G-7 issued a
13-point joint communique during the day, that included among others, reiterating
the existing firm stand of solidarity with Ukraine, condemning Russian
annexation drive of regions in the east and south through sham referendums, criticizing
Kremlin’s irresponsible action related to Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant and decrying
Russian leader’s threat of nuclear attack.
Meanwhile, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said on October
11, 2022 that the alliance would press ahead with a weeklong nuclear
exercise, dubbed as “Steadfast Noon”, that had been planned before the
war, dismissing calls from some quarters to call off the annual drills this
year. He met with NATO defense ministers on October 11, 2022 at Brussels.
Russia Continues Waves of Attacks on Ukraine; General Assembly Decries
Annexation
In response to October 8, 2022, explosion on the gargantuan Kerch Bridge
that had damaged the key link between Crimea and Russia’s mainland, Russia on
October 10, 2022 began pummeling scores of cities and localities—including Kyiv—across
the nation. The assault on Ukraine continued unabated on October 12, 2022
unabated.
U.N. General Assembly on October 12, 2022 condemned Russia’s recent
annexation of four eastern and southern regions. The vote was 143-5 in favor of
the measure that criticized Russia, with 35 abstentions.
Russia on October 13, 2022 continued the wave of attacks on Kyiv and other population centers for the fourth day in a row.
Putin Calls Invasion Timely
Addressing a summit of Commonwealth of Independent States in the
Kazakh capital, Russian President Vladimir Putin on October 14, 2022
said that his invasion was timely as, without it, Ukraine would have made the
situation far worse and a latter invasion could have been bloodier, espousing a
revisionist version of a history that’s figment of Russian president’s
imagination.
11 Killed at a Volunteer Soldier Practice Facility
Two gunmen on October 15, 2022 opened fire on a group of volunteer
soldiers participating in a target practice session at a facility in Belgorod
region in the western Russia bordering Ukraine, killing 11 recruits and
wounding 15 others. The volunteer soldiers were part of recent partial
mobilization of reservists. Russian Defense Ministry said that the two gunmen whom
they had called “terrorists” were killed too.
Barrage of Kamikaze Drone Attacks Kill 4 in Kyiv
A week after Russia launched a near-incessant streak of airstrikes with
missiles and drones on Kyiv after several weeks of pause, several kamikazes on October
17, 2022 pulverized Kyiv’s residential buildings, power stations and other
infrastructure in an apparent escalation of tension. At least four people were
killed in suicide drone attacks in Kyiv. Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko said
that 28 drones were part of barrage of explosives-laden drones that Kremlin had
sent. Prime Minister Denis Shmyphl said that five drones had struck Kyiv.
At least, 13 Kamikaze drones were shot down.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said on a social media posting that “Kamikaze
drones and missiles are attacking all of Ukraine”. Zelensky added, based on
Ukrainian intelligence reports, that Russia had ordered about 2,400 Shaheed
drones from Iran.
Putin’s Targets Include Power Plants, Infrastructure before Winter
As a harsh
response to the attack on a key bridge that connects Russia with the annexed
Ukrainian region of Crimea, Russia on October 10, 2022 launched a ferocious
campaign of missile and Kamikaze assaults on cities and towns far from the
battlegrounds, especially targeting civilian apartments, power stations and
other infrastructure facilities. Kyiv used to be a place where normal rhythm of
life had returned few weeks after the initial bout of campaign that had been
launched on February 24, 2022. Unfortunately, the October 8, 2022,
explosion that had significantly damaged the Kerch Bridge changed all of
it. Within 48 hours, Russia assaulted Kyiv and other cities with missiles and Iran-delivered
Shaheed drones. The nine-day (October 10-18, 2022) intense
campaign of assaults knocked out 30% of the power-generating capacity, plunging
millions of people into darkness as temperatures started to drop below freezing
point in night. Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky, said on October 18,
2022 that the latest streak of Kamikaze and missile attacks had “no
space left for negotiation with Putin’s regime”.
On the southern battlefront, that Russian soldiers are facing plenty of headwind has become clear as Russia-backed authorities in Kherson have begun to evacuate people and Russia’s new military commander, Sergei Surovikin, has ordered a robust fortification along the Dnieper River.
A Wholehearted Ukraine Assistance in Doubt if Republicans Win House
House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy on October 18, 2022 told the Punchbowl
News that if his party won the midterm, there would not be any “blank check”
for Ukraine. Although the comment doesn’t indicate a potential lack of full and
comprehensive support for Ukraine, it does reflect a shift in political
priority after the “America First”-loyalists take a higher profile in
the next Congress under a potential GOP control of the House. Congress last
month passed a $12.3 billion in Ukraine-related package as part of short-term
funding of the federal government through December 16, 2022. That’s on
the top of two other previous tranches of aid totaling $50 billion,
including a package of $40 billion. Nearly 60 House members and
11 Senators opposed the $40 billion Ukraine aid package.
Putin Announces Martial Law in Annexed Regions, New rules in Russia
In an ominous sign for whatever had remained as a vestige of personal
freedom, Russian President Vladimir Putin on October 19, 2022 announced
martial law in the recently annexed four regions of Zaporizhzhia, Kherson,
Luhansk and Donetsk. He also imposed stricter rules in Russia that would
allow to easily squash dissention and protests. Meanwhile, the evacuation of civilians
from Kherson picked up steam on October 19, 2022 as Ukrainian
counteroffensive led a potential bloody standoff in vast areas of Kherson.
Russia Launches Volleys of Attacks Targeting Power Plants
Russia on October 22, 2022 struck Ukrainian infrastructure and
power plants at random, plunging millions of people to a dark night. President
Volodymyr Zelensky said that Russia had launched 36 missiles overnight.
Russia Raises a Specter of a Ukrainian Dirty Bomb as a False-Flag
Operation
Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu on October 23, 2022 complained to the officials
from U.S., Turkey, U.K. and France over a conference call that Kyiv was
planning to use a dirty bomb as a possible false-flag operation. U.S., French, and U.K. officials objected to that “false-flag operation” theory.
British Defense Minister Ben Wallace called the allegation a potential
Russian ploy for “escalation”. U.S. called the “transparently false allegation”
as concerning as White House National Security Council Spokesperson Adrienne
Watson warned that Russia should not use this as “a pretext for escalation".
Ukraine, Russia Accuse each other of Hatching Conspiracy of Exploding
Dirty Bomb
On October 25, 2022, Moscow and Kyiv continued their allegation
that other side was hatching conspiracy to stage a “false-flag operation” by
exploding a dirty bomb. Ukraine’s nuclear energy agency and nuclear plant
operator, Energoatom, said on October 25, 2022 that Russians had been performing
some secret endeavors inside the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, and
suspected that the work was related to a “dirty bomb”. Russian Defense
Minister Sergei Shoigu on October 23, 2022 complained over a conference
call to his counterparts from Turkey, U.S., U.K. and France that Ukraine was
planning a “false-flag operation” using a dirty bomb, an allegation that the
U.S., U.K. and France dismissed as “transparently false”.
Putin Mentions Ukraine Planning a “Dirty Bomb” Attack; Sides Host
Nuclear Drills
NATO and Russia held simulated nuclear war drills, and Russian
President Vladimir Putin on October 26, 2022 watched them [Russian
drills] remotely. Biden administration said that Russia had notified about the
drills. On October 11, 2022, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg
announced that this year’s annual drill would not be cancelled as requested by
some European nations. Russian President Vladimir Putin on October 26, 2022
for the first time raised the specter of so called “false-flag” operation with
a “dirty bomb” as a “provocation” by Ukraine. On October 23, 2022, Russian
Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu first time mentioned the Ukrainian
provocation of a potential “dirty bomb” during talks with his American, French,
British and Turkish counterparts. U.S., France, and U.K. called the
allegation as “transparently false".
Russia Inches Closer to Seizing a Key Donetsk City; Partial Mobilization
over
As the focus remained on Ukrainian counterattack in the south,
especially in and around Kherson, Russia on October 28, 2022 moved
closer to seizing Bakhmut that would help Moscow to ramp up a
sustainable supply line in Donbas.
In a televised meeting on October 28, 2022, Defense Minister Sergei
Shoigu was seen telling Putin that the goal of 300,000 troops to be sent to
battlefront as part of the partial mobilization of the reservists had been met
and the drive was now officially over.
Russia Pauses on Grain Shipment after Drone Attack
Hours after drone attacks targeted Russia’s Black Sea Fleet based on the
Crimean port of Sevastopol, Russia on October 29, 2022 suspended the U.N.-mediated
grain shipment from the Black Sea ports, compounding the crop shortages and
price inflation on the global market. Russia’s action puts a big question mark
on the future of the grain deal as the current one expires on November 19,
2022. U.S. President Joe Biden deplored the Russian action during talks
with reporters in Delaware on October 29, 2022, saying that Moscow was “looking
for some rationale” to disrupt grain exports.
U.N., Turkey Agree to Resume Grain Shipping from Ukrainian Ports
A day after Russia withdrew from the grain shipment deal mediated by the
U.N. and Turkey, delegates from four parties—U.N., Turkey, Russia and
Ukraine—met on October 30, 2022 as the Joint Coordination Center discussed
Russia’s unilateral, indefinite self-suspension from participating in the
program. U.N., Turkey, and Ukraine later in the day took decisive step to
resume grain exports from Ukraine’s Black Sea ports. A statement read that the “Ukrainian,
Turkish and United Nations delegations agreed on a movement plan” beginning on October
31, 2022, with 12 outbound and 4 inbound vessels.
Russia Targets Energy Infrastructure afresh
Russian cruise missiles launched from fighter jets from Caspian Sea and southern Rostov region on October 31, 2022 pummeled utility and water facilities in Kyiv and other regions. Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko said that the city's 80% area is now cut off from the water supply. Russia's fresh barrage of attacks is in response to October 29, 2022, drone strikes on its Black Sea Fleet vessels in Sevastopol, Crimea, but what it has chosen are not military targets, but civilian infrastructure to maximize the misery in the run-up to the onset of the winter.
Russia Launches Annual Fall Draft as Evacuation from Kherson Continues
On November 1, 2022, Russia launched its annual fall draft to
recruit an additional 120,000 soldiers in addition to the just concluded
partial mobilization of 300,000 reservists that President Vladimir
Putin had ordered on September 21, 2022. The partial mobilization
drive had led tens of thousands of Russian youths to flee the nation, creating widely
reported days-long logjams at some of the land border crossings. Also, on November
1, 2022, Kremlin-installed governor of Kherson, Vladimir Saldo, said
that Kyiv was planning a “massive missile strike on the Kakhovka hydroelectric station”
to flood Kherson.
Meanwhile, IAEA sent teams to two places in Ukraine identified by Russia
where, Kremlin complained, Kyiv was allegedly planning to explode “dirty bombs”,
an allegation that the west had called “transparently false”. Those teams are
working on the ground, Rafael Grossi has said on November 1, 2022.
Russia Rejoins Grain Shipment Deal
At the proactive mediation of Turkey, the grain shipment agreement was
salvaged as Russian President Vladimir Putin announced on November 2,
2022 to rejoin the deal. Putin also lauded the effort of Turkish
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan for his sincere effort to restore the grain
deal, showing “neutrality in the conflict as a whole” and “ensuring the
interests of the poorest countries” as part of the grain shipment. Russia
suspended participating in grain shipment agreement on October 29, 2022
after a drone attack on its Black Sea Fleet.
U.N. Security Council Rejects Russia’s Resolution for Inquiry into
Military Biological Lab
U.N. Security Council on November 2, 2022 dealt a setback to
Russia as it shot down a Russian proposal to form a commission to investigate
into a secret military biological weapons program run by Ukraine and the U.S.
on the Ukrainian soil. The vote was two (Russia and China) in favor of the
resolution, three against (U.S., U.K., and France) and 10 abstentions.
Europe’s Largest Nuclear Plant Cut off from Power Grid
It has become an on-and-off brinkmanship that has catastrophic
consequence if goes awry. On November 3, 2022, Energoatom,
Ukraine’s nuclear power operator, said that due to Russian shelling that had
damaged two transmission lines, Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant had to
be disconnected from the main grid and now its electricity was being supplied
by a back-up diesel generator to run in-house operation, including the cooling
of its nuclear storage facility. Russia’s nuclear energy agency, Rosenergoatom,
countered by saying that Ukraine had intentionally switched off the two
transmission lines. IAEA chief Rafael Grossi said that running a nuclear
power plant by a back-up generator was not “sustainable”, and repeated his call
for creating a protection zone around the ZNPP complex.
Meanwhile, Ukrainian officials said on November 3, 2022 that
rescuers had dug remains of 868 bodies, including those of 24 children, from the
recently liberated areas of Donetsk, Kharkiv and Kherson.
Blackouts Announced for Capital Region
Ukraine’s sole state operator of high-voltage transmission lines, Ukrenergo,
said on November 5, 2022 that outages would take place in Kyiv and seven
other regions—including Chernihiv, Cherkasy, Zhytomyr, Sumy, Poltava and
Kharkiv—as Russian drones and missiles targeted power stations, utilizes
and other critical infrastructure.
On November 5, 2022, Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein
Amirabdollahian told reporters at Tehran that the Persian Gulf nation had
supplied a “limited number of drones to Russia months before the Ukraine war”,
marking the first official admission of such a supply. Previously, Iranian
officials denied supplying drones to Russia, including Iran’s U.N.
Ambassador Amir Saeid Iravani calling the allegation “totally baseless".
Russia to Withdraw from Kherson
The top Russian military commander in Ukraine, Gen. Sergei Surovikin,
on November 9, 2022 told Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu
in a televised meeting that Russia should begin withdrawing all troops from Kherson,
reminding another hasty retreat that Russia had carried out earlier in the areas
in close vicinity to and around Kharkiv. Shoigu agreed with Gen. Surovikin.
Russia is withdrawing all its troops from Kherson to the other side of
the Dnieper River.
U.S. to Send Kyiv $400 million in Military Aid amidst Russian Withdrawal
from Kherson
The Associated Press has reported on November 10, 2022 that the Biden administration
is sending $400 million in military aid to Ukraine as the Russian
soldiers have begun to pull out of Kherson, only regional capital that Russia
has seized in the war. The aid will bring the total U.S. military pledge to
Ukraine to $18.6 billion since Russia’s invasion on February 24, 2022.
In the latest package, included are ammunition, especially HIMARS (High
Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems) ammunition, and highly mobile Avenger
Air Defense Systems.
Kherson back to under Ukrainian Control
In a major battlefield victory, Ukrainian army on November 11, 2022
entered the city of Kherson days after Russian soldiers had evacuated to
the east of Dnieper River to the embrace of a thunderous and joyful
crowd. Residents of the city celebrated on the streets, painting their faces
with the color of Ukrainian flag, carrying posters hailing Ukrainian victory
and denouncing Russia. The fall of Kherson to Ukrainian hands is a major
setback to Russia.
Police, Broadcasters Return to Kherson; Russia Names New Capital
A day after Ukrainian army entered the city of Kherson, police
force and broadcasting infrastructure on November 12, 2022 returned to
the city as part of the rapid normalization of life. Russian authorities,
meanwhile, named a city 124 miles southeast of Kherson, Henichesk, as
the Kherson region’s new administrative capital.
People Celebrate Liberation of Kherson for the Third Straight Day
Residents continued pouring out on the streets of Kherson on November
13, 2022, two days after its liberation, to enjoy the newly accomplished
freedom. The spontaneity and sheer degree of joy and embrace mark an atmosphere
of victory and national pride. The Kyiv’s regional governor for Kherson, Yaroslav
Yanushevych, on November 13, 2022 warned people to stay out of city
square and other popular areas in anticipation of Russian sabotage. The
national postal agency, Ukrposhta, is planning to resume services in Kherson
soon.
Zelensky Visits Liberated Kherson
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on November 14, 2022 visited days-old
liberated city of Kherson, and said that it [liberation] marked the “beginning
of the end of the war”. He also added that Ukrainian service personnel made
tremendous sacrifices in large numbers to make this sort of military gains. However,
Oleshky, the city across Kherson on the other side of the Dnieper River,
has seen renewed shelling.
Russian-made Missile Strikes Poland, Kills Two
U.S. President Joe Biden was awakened in the early morning of November
16, 2022 with the news that a Russian-made missile had landed on a Polish
village near its border with Ukraine. Media reports said that two people were
reportedly killed. President Joe Biden convened an emergency meeting of
G-7 nations and NATO on the sidelines of G-20 summit in Indonesia later in the
day. President Joe Biden tweeted to offer “full U.S. support for and assistance
with Poland’s investigation” of the missile strike. Biden didn’t think that the
missile, although made in Russia, was fired from Russia.
Poland Determines the Missile that Kills Two Polish Accidental Fire
Polish President Andrzej Duda and NATO chief said on November 16, 2022
that the missile that had landed on a Polish farmland a day before, killing two
people, was accidental strike and it came from the Ukrainian position.
10 million people without Power as Snows Fall in Kyiv
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said in his daily nightly video address on November
17, 2022 that 10 million people in the country, especially in Kyiv,
Sumy, Odessa and Vinnytsia regions, were without power as Russia struck
infrastructure and utilities with missiles and drones. Russia on November
15, 2022 unleashed more than 100 missiles, hitting targets across Ukraine,
a record one-day barrage of airstrikes, resulting in more than 10 million
people plunging into darkness amidst a harsh winter onsetting in the large
parts of the country. Season’s first snows fell on Kyiv on November 17, 2022. In other conflict-related news of the day:
* Dnipropetrovsk Governor Valentin Reznichenko said that airstrikes
on Dnipro had triggered massive fireballs, wounding 23 people
* Odessa Governor Maksym Marchenko said that an industrial facility was targeted
by Russian airstrike
* Officials in various regions—including Poltava and Kharkiv in the
northeast and Rivne in the west—asked people to seek refuge in bomb
shelters
Head of Russia’s National Power Grid Warns People against “Possible Long
Outages”
Following up on a barrage of 100-plus missile and drone attacks
across Ukraine two days ago, Moscow on November 17, 2022 again targeted the
infrastructure, utilities and energy sectors amidst the mounting battlefield
losses in Kherson and other areas. The head of Ukrenergo, nation’s
state-run electric grid operator, on November 18, 2022 said that Moscow “wants
to destroy our power system in general”, to cause maximum pain in the run-up to
the winter months. Volodymyr Kudrytskyi added that Ukrainians needed to
be prepared for “possible long outages”. Overnight, Russia attacked “critical
infrastructure” in Kharkiv, region’s Governor Oleh Syniehubov
said on November 18, 2022.
Hungary Reluctant to EU’s Aid Package to Ukraine
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban on November 18, 2022 said that his regime
would oppose EU’s proposal to fund $18.6 billion to help out Ukraine
next year to mitigate financial and economic meltdown. Orban added that he had
to look at the Hungarians first and could not commit to EU’s current pot of
aid. He proposed an alternative funding plan for Ukraine: Individual member
nations raise their Ukraine funds according to their overall balance of all
commitments and pool the funds together to give the fund to Kyiv instead of a centralized
mandate from Brussels.
IAEA Warns Blasts near Nuclear Power Plant as 400+ Strikes Hit Eastern
Ukraine
IAEA chief on November 20, 2022 warned that the on-again, off-again blasts close
to Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant that had happened on November 19,
2022 and November 20, 2022 were extremely dangerous and they could result
in a catastrophe. Rafael Mariano Grossi asked both sides not to “play with fire”
as Moscow and Kyiv blamed each other amidst Russia continuing with a barrage of
more than 400 strikes on eastern Ukraine on November 20, 2022.
Ukrainians Forced to Withstand Onset of Winter without Electricity,
Running Water
That Vladimir Putin only cares about his own prestige and power is
proving out on daily basis as on November 23, 2022, Russia has continued
another daily barrage of missiles and drones that have targeted residential
buildings, utility infrastructures, electric grids and even a hospital. As a result,
most of Ukraine is reeling under power outage. Ukraine’s Energy Ministry
said on November 23, 2022 that a “great majority of customers” were “without
power”. The state-owned power grid operator, Ukrenergo, said on its
official Telegram channel that in “all regions emergency blackouts were taking
place”. Kyiv region’s governor, Oleksiy Kuleba, said that four people
were killed in the November 23, 2022, barrage of missile and drone
strikes. Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko said that city’s water supply would
be cut off temporarily. Ukrainian Air Force said that it had shot down
51 out of 70 missiles launched on November 23, 2022. It also reported
that five self-destructive drones were destroyed too.
In response to Russia’s “brutal and inhuman acts” against Ukrainian
civilians, European Parliament on November 23, 2022 symbolically voted
to label Russia a “state sponsor of terrorism".
Televised Meeting between Putin, Mothers of Soldiers before Mother’s Day
As Russian soldiers are enduring battlefront losses on daily basis and the
top American military brass, Gen. Mark Milley, had estimated earlier this month
of at least 100,000 deaths or injuries of Russian soldiers since February 24,
2022, invasion, Russian state media on November 25, 2022 showed Russian
President Vladimir Putin meeting with select groups of mothers of the deployed
Russian soldiers. The meeting on the eve of the nation’s Mother’s Day, the last
Sunday of November, and this year, it’s November 27, 2022, is
carefully calibrated to maximize political mileage for Putin as the growing and
gathering discontent over a recently launched draft that has concluded with the
reinforcement of 318,000 additional soldiers is spreading rapidly and openly
across the nation. The state TV shows Putin assuring the mothers and blaming
west for the war in Ukraine.
Residents Fleeing Kherson Days after It was Liberated; Food Security
Summit Held at Kyiv
Days after residents danced and sang on the streets to mark its
liberation from Russian occupation, residents of Kherson can’t take any
more aerial assault and punishing bombing. The entire city seems to be in
flame. On November 26, 2022, almost a mile-long exodus of cars was seen clogging
the roads out of Kherson. The scene of massive exodus from Kherson is a
psychological setback to Ukraine as Kyiv is facing difficulties to hold on to
military gains on a sustainable basis.
Meanwhile, several EU leaders attended, both in-person and virtually, a
food summit on November 26, 2022 organized by Ukrainian government at
Kyiv. International Summit on Food Security falls on the 90th
anniversary of Great Famine under Josef Stalin that had killed more
than 3 million people in Ukraine over a span of two years. The summit gave President
Volodymyr Zelensky and Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal to further burnish
their image and project their profiles on international arena in the midst of a
brutal war.
Russia’s Infrastructure Targeting Draws Rebuke from Six Visiting Foreign
Ministers
On November 28, 2022, six foreign ministers from Nordic and
Baltic blocs visited Kyiv in one of the largest shows of foreign dignitaries
since February 24, 2022, Russian invasion. Estonian Foreign Minister Urmas
Reinsalu condemned the “shameful” Russian attack on Ukraine’s civilian
infrastructure, including power plants, water utilities and civilian
facilities. Reinsalu said at Kyiv during the day that Russia was “weaponizing
civilian energy security” in a “truly shameful” manner.
NATO Foreign Ministers to Meet 14 Years After Opening the Doors to
Ukraine, Georgia
NATO foreign minsters are to meet for two days (November 29-30, 2022)
at Bucharest’s Palace of the Parliament, the same place where, in April
2008, NATO leaders have met and the then-President George W. Bush has persuaded
the allies to open the doors for NATO to Ukraine and Georgia over stiff
objection from Vladimir Putin. Many international observers blame the April
2008 Bucharest decision by NATO as a tipping point for Russia as Kremlin has
faced a potentially expanded enemy coalition at its doorstep, leading to Moscow
sending its troops to Georgia.
EU Agrees on Russian Oil Price Cap
As Russia is squeezing the supply of oil to Europe and beyond, pushing
the crude prices higher that, in turn, is helping the Russian war effort in
Ukraine, European Union is determined to tighten the noose around the
revenue pipeline for Kremlin to continue funding a brutal war against Ukrainian
people. On December 2, 2022, EU officials in Brussels agreed on a deal
to cap the prices of Russian oil shipment at $60 per barrel. The price
cap is necessary as EU is to enforce a ban on Russian oil by sea and the
insurance on those shipment beginning December 5, 2022. The decision is
to be ratified by the higher-ranking EU officials. Estonian Prime Minister
Kaja Kallas expressed her happiness over setting a price cap around $60 and
added that an extra dollar per barrel would translate to $2 billion for “Russia’s
war chest".
Russia Blasts the Oil Price Cap
Russia on December 3, 2022 rejected the price cap of $60 per
barrel for Russian oil that had been agreed a day earlier by the EU,
Britain, Russia, Japan, U.S. and Australia. The price cap will go into
effect on December 5, 2022, the same day EU’s ban on Russian oil shipment
by sea will go into effect. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that
Russia needed to analyze the situation, but would not accept a price cap.
Russia’s permanent ambassador to the U.N. agencies based in Geneva, Mikhail
Ulyanov, was far more adamant, tweeting on December 3, 2022 that from
“this year, Europe will live without Russian oil”. To the contrary, Ukrainian
president’s office rued that the price cap had been set too high. It should
have been $30 per barrel, according to the head of President Volodymyr
Zelensky’s office, Andriy Yermak, a position taken by Poland too.
Putin Visits a Key Bridge Damaged in Oct 2022; 14 Million Ukrainians
Displaced
On December 5, 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin
visited a repaired Kerch Bridge, a key communication route between Crimea
and mainland Russia, and took a ride on the bridge in a high-profile visit to
lift the sagging morale of Russian army. An explosion that significantly
damaged the Kerch Bridge in October 2022 led Russia to launch a months-long,
waves of airstrikes and drone attacks on Ukrainian energy facilities and other
infrastructure targets to cripple electricity and water supplies to millions of
civilians across the country.
U.N. humanitarian chief, Martin Griffiths, told the U.N.
Security Council on December 6, 2022 that about 14 million Ukrainians—about
7.8 million people had fled to other European nations and beyond while other
6.5 million people were internally displaced—had been displaced by Russian campaign
of aggression since February 24, 2022. Griffiths decried the “colossal”
destruction that had been carried out by Russia that had led to “widespread death,
displacement and suffering”. U.S. Deputy Ambassador Lisa Carty had some
harsh words too for Kremlin. Russia’s U.N. ambassador, Vassily Nebenzia,
blamed Kyiv and Ukraine’s “hateful rhetoric” for the present chaotic situation.
NATO Chief Fears about a Broader War; U.S. Warns Deepening Iran-Russia
Ties
NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg, a former premier of
Norway, said on December 9, 2022 during an interview with Norwegian
broadcaster NRK that it was possible for the current conflict, if out-of-control
escalation not prevented, to become a NATO-Russia conflict that would “become
a full-fledged war between NATO and Russia”. Stoltenberg assured that “we
are working on that every day to avoid that”. Meanwhile, fighting in the east
and south is ensuing in full force. Donetsk regional Governor Pavlo
Kyrylenko said that Russian army was targeting Bakhmut with severe
attack to break the morale of the people. The regional governor of neighboring Luhansk,
Serhiy Haidai, said that the Ukrainian forces were pushing hard towards Kreminna
and Svatove. In the south, Kherson regional Governor Yaroslav
Yanyshevych said that Russian shelling had damaged a children’s hospital.
U.S. meanwhile accused Russia of deepening its military ties with Iran. National
Security Council spokesman John Kirby said on December 9, 2022 that “an
unprecedented level of military and technical support” by Kremlin had transformed
their “relationship into a full-fledged defense partnership".
Zelensky Asks More Advanced Weapons from G-7
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on December 12, 2022, addressing a G-7
meeting via video, asked for more advanced weapons to counter Russian assaults.
He also said that Russian withdrawal from the internationally recognized
Ukrainian regions, including Crimea, by this year’s Christmas would be
considered as the beginning of “cessation” of conflict. His comment came a day
after Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal told a French broadcaster, LCI,
that the Russian focus on crippling utilities, energy facilities and other
infrastructure targets had twin objectives—kowtowing Ukraine to its knees and
forcing millions of Ukrainians to Europe, thus overwhelming the continent’s
economy.
Russia Threatens over Patriot Missile Shipment to Ukraine
Since the western media first reported on December 13, 2022 that the
U.S. would soon announce giving a Patriot Missile battery to Ukraine,
Russian leaders were very transparent and to-the-point in calling out what it
all meant. U.S is now getting involved directly in the Ukraine conflict,
according to Moscow, and is taking side. Russian Foreign Ministry
spokesperson Maria Zakharova said on December 15, 2022 that giving Patriot
Missile battery to Kyiv would cross a line and the U.S. would “effectively
become a party” to the conflict.
Russia’s One of the Largest Barrage of Missile Attacks on Kyiv Repelled
Ukraine’s missile defense system on December 16, 2022 was able to
neutralize most of the incoming missiles aimed at striking Kyiv region. Ukraine
said that 37 of about 40 missiles—cruise missiles launched from Admiral Makarov
frigate in the Black Sea and Kh-22 cruise missiles launched from long-range
Tu-22M3 bombers on the Azov Sea—were destroyed. In addition to Kyiv,
Russian missiles strikes targeted Kryvyi Rih, President Volodymyr
Zelensky’s hometown, Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia. About 60 of 76 missiles
were intercepted. December 16, 2022 marked the day of one of the most intensified
missile attacks on the capital region since Russia began targeting Ukraine’s water,
utility and other infrastructures since October 2022.
Zelensky’s Appeal to Congress for More Help; U.S. Announces $1.85 billion
in New Aid
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky made a risky trip to Washington D.C. during
wartime as he had arrived at the Joint Base Andrews, outside the D.C., on
December 21, 2022. It was his first foreign trip since Russia invaded
Ukraine about 300 days ago. The trip came a day after another risky trip that
Zelensky had undertaken on December 20, 2022 to thank Ukrainian fighters
on the frontline at the Donetsk city of Bakhmut. President Volodymyr
Zelensky met President Joe Biden at the White House along with Secretary of
State Anthony Blinken, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, and the White House
national security team members. The hours-long closed-door meeting was followed
by a joint press conference and later an address to a joint session of
Congress. In his address to the joint session of Congress, President Volodymyr
Zelensky tried to paint the war in Ukraine as a war forced upon Ukraine, but
now became a war for “global security and democracy”. He thanked American
lawmakers and citizens for standing firm behind the Ukrainian people.
On the same day President Volodymyr Zelensky arrived at the JBA,
met with President Joe Biden, and later capped it up with an address to
a historic joint session of Congress, U.S. announced $1.85 billion in new
Ukrainian aid, including a Patriot missile defense battery. The $1.85
billion in aid announced on December 21, 2022 is separate from an
additional $45 billion package that’s part of the $1.7 trillion omnibus bill currently
being negotiated in Congress. There are three key aid components in the two-part,
$1.85 billion package. One part is about $1 billion in
military aid from Pentagon’s existing military inventory that includes a Patriot
missile defense battery. The second part is $850 million from the Ukrainian
Security Assistance Initiative, or USAI, that includes satellite
communications terminals and services for Starlink satellites to work
effectively. SpaceX founder Elon Musk recently threatened to suspend
Starlink services for free, thus accelerating the talks to ship satellite
communication terminals and services to Ukraine to avoid disruption to the existing
communication. The three key components include: (1) Patriot missile
defense battery, (2) satellite communications terminals and services, and (3) undisclosed
number of Joint Direct Attack Munition, JDAM, kits that transform
unguided bombs carried by bombers into guided and precision bombs.
Putin Dangles Carrot of Negotiation as Fierce Attacks on Ukraine
Continue
Russian President Vladimir Putin on December 25, 2022 said in an interview
that Kremlin wanted to “negotiate some acceptable outcomes with all the
participants of this process”. He has also blamed the so called “others” who are
not interested in ending the war. He reiterated in the interview that Russia
had “no other choice”, but to defend “our national interests”. His remarks on exploring
a negotiated end to the conflict run contrary to Russia’s ongoing assault on
Ukrainian people and infrastructure, including utilities and water supply
facilities. The governor of Kherson region, Governor Yaroslav Yanusevich,
said on December 25, 2022 that Russian shelling over the past 24 hours had
killed more than 16 people, including three emergency workers who were demining
the Berislav District of the region. In the neighboring Dnipropetrovsk
region, Governor Valentyn Reznichenko said on December 25, 2022, overnight
shelling had terrorized the residents of Nikopol.
Drone Arrives Deep inside Russia Territory as Kyiv Official Calls for
Summit
In an interview with The Associated Press, Ukrainian Foreign
Minister Dmytro Kuleba proposed on December 26, 2022 a summit at the
behest of the United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres at the
U.N. in late February 2023 as part of an international effort to end the
10-month-old war. However, Ukraine’s top diplomat was skeptical that Russia
would participate in such a summit. He has also added that Russia must face an
international tribunal for war crimes before such talks begin.
Meanwhile, in an embarrassing turn of events, a drone was close to Russia’s
Engels Air Base, roughly 370 miles from the Ukrainian border, when
it was destroyed on December 26, 2022. The base is home to Tu-95 and
Tu-160 nuclear-capable bombers which have been used innumerable times to
hit targets in Ukraine. If the drone has been launched from Ukrainian
territory, it marks a serious security breach as the drone has travelled about 370
miles before being detected.
Russia’s Top Diplomat Accuses Washington of Fueling the War
A day after Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba proposed a
summit in February 2023 to end the war, but also conditioned such summit
on Russia facing an international panel for its war crimes, his Russian
counterpart, Sergey Lavrov, said during an interview with Tass on
December 27, 2022 that the war would end after Kyiv completed “demilitarization”
and “denazification”. Lavrov took a parting shot at Washington, saying that the
“duration of conflict” depended solely on Kyiv and its backer Washington.
French Defense Minister Vows Military Support for Kyiv
French Minister for the Armed Forces Sebastien Lecornu visited Kyiv on
December 28, 2022 and held talks with his Ukrainian counterpart, Oleksii Reznikov,
on military aid. According to what is heard from that meeting is that France
will give MAMBA antimissile defense system and a $212 million fund
to buy weapons. France developed MAMBA antimissile defense system
jointly with Italy. Currently, Ukraine is using another French missile defense
system, Crotale air-defense system.
On the ground, Russia had made Bakhmut as bird’s eye to consolidate its
control over Donetsk. Ukraine’s army is pushing toward Luhansk city of Kreminna
to bifurcate the Russian military position in order to weaken Russian offensive.
A Missile Strike Reported to have Killed Dozens of Russian Soldiers
A missile strike on the New Year’s Day (January 1, 2023) killed
scores of Russian soldiers who were housed at a vocational school in Makiivka
of Donetsk region. Makiivka is controlled by Russians, and the school
housed hundreds of conscripts from central Russia. Russian defense ministry on January
2, 2023 estimated the death toll at 63, and blamed Kyiv for launching four HIMARS
(High Mobility Artillery Rocket System) missiles, out of which two had been
destroyed on flight. Ukrainian authorities said that at least 400 Russian
soldiers were killed, without divulging the source of the attack.
Putin Announces a Truce on the Eve of Christmas, U.S. to Provide $2.85 billion
Aid to Kyiv
Russian President Vladimir Putin on January 5, 2023 announced a
unilateral 36-hour cease-fire to allow Orthodox Christians and other
residents in the combat area to celebrate Christmas. Ukrainian President
Volodymyr Zelensky rejected the unilateral truce, without clarifying
whether Kyiv would continue attacking Russian positions or would take a pause.
During his nightly video address, Zelensky called the announcement a clever
Putin ploy to regroup and bring “equipment, ammunition and mobilized people
closer to our positions".
On the military front, U.S. is continuing to arm Kyiv with lethal
weapons. On January 5, 2023, U.S. announced that it would provide an
additional military aid package of $2.85 billion, including dozens of Bradley
armored vehicles, ramping up the armament of Ukraine with some of the most
advanced military gears now in the Pentagon stockpiles and marking for the
first time such an advanced armored vehicle to be deployed in the battlefield
in defense of Ukraine.
Orthodox Christmas Celebrated with Scattered Fighting
Despite Kremlin’s unilateral 36-hour cease-fire that began on January
6, 2023 and continued on January 7, 2023 along the 684-mile
frontline and in southern Ukraine, Russian shelling was reported on January
7, 2023 in Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia regions. The unilateral
cease-fire was announced by President Vladimir Putin in response to an
appeal for truce by the head of Russian Orthodox Church, Patriarch Kirill.
On January 6, 2023, the White House has spelled out $3.75 billion
in military and other aid that includes 50 Bradley armored vehicles and 500
anti-tank missiles. In addition, on January 6, 2023, Germany said that
it would give Kyiv 40 Marder armored personnel carriers and France added
that it would ship wheeled AMX-10 RC tank destroyers.
Russian Conquest of Donetsk Town Contested by Ukraine
That Russia had captured, after a long and bloody battle, the Donetsk town of Soledar on January 12, 2023 was immediately contested by Ukrainian authorities. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said on January 13, 2023 that the fierce "battle for Bakhmut and Soledar, for Kreminna, for other towns and villages in the east of our state continues". Even if Soledar falls to the control of Russia, this is more of a symbolic than substantial victory for Moscow and it's "unlikely to presage an imminent Russian encirclement of Bakhmut", according to an assessment by the Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based think tank.
Although Russia's military goal in Ukraine is to assert full control over Donbas, it's struggling to get a firm foothold over more than 50% of Donetsk although it now controls almost all of Luhansk, another major province in Donbas.
Russian Missiles Rain down on Ukraine
Russia tormented Ukrainian people on January 14, 2023 with
missile strikes on cities as distant and diverse as Dnipro, Kharkiv, Kyiv
and Zaporizhzhia. A missile strike on an apartment building in the central
city of Dnipro pulverized an apartment building, leaving behind rubble
and detritus as high as a small mound, mangled windows and hazardous material. The
attack on the Dnipro apartment building killed at least 12 people and injured
more than 60. The Ukrainian anti-missile system destroyed 25 out of 38 missiles
launched by Russia, according to the Ukrainian Air Force. On January 14,
2023, British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and Ukrainian President Volodymyr
Zelensky held talks over phone on arming Ukrainian military with Challenger
2 tanks and additional artillery systems.
Death in Apartment Attack Rises to 30 in the Worst Attack in Three
Months
In the worst single attack since a September 30, 2022, attack in Zaporizhzhia
region, the death toll from a Kh-22 missile attack a day before on
an apartment building in Dnipro rose to 30 as of January 15, 2023.
Dnipro strike was part of a nationwide attack launched by Russia that
targeted the capital, Kyiv, northeastern city of Kharkiv and other
cities. Ukrainian armed services chief, Gen. Valerii Zaluzhny, said on January
15, 2023 that Russia had launched 33 cruise missiles on January 14, 2023
and 21 of them were destroyed, but added that Ukraine didn’t have interceptor
for the type of missile—Kh-22 missile—that had struck Dnipro.
Toll from the Second-deadliest Attack on Civilians Mount; U.S., Ukraine
Army Chiefs Meet
The missile strike on an apartment building on January 14, 2023
in the southeastern city of Dnipro turned out to be the second-worst
single attack on the civilians, according to The Associated Press-Frontline
War Crimes Watch project. The worst attack was an aerial strike on a rail
station at Kramatorsk on April 9, 2022 that had killed at least 52
people. As of January 17, 2023, 45 bodies were recovered from
the rubble of the January 14, 2023, missile strike on a Dnipro
apartment building. The Kh-22 missile strike on the Dnipro
apartment building drew strong condemnation from the walks of world community. President
Volodymyr Zelensky said in January 16, 2023, nightly video address that “we
will use all available opportunities” to bring “Russian murderers” to justice.
In another significant military event on January 17, 2023, Chairman
of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Mark Milley travelled to an undisclosed
location in southeastern Poland bordering Ukraine to meet his Ukrainian
counterpart, Gen. Valerii Zaluzhnyi, marking the first in-person meeting
between the two army chiefs since the February 24, 2022, beginning of
Ukrainian conflict. They have spoken several times over the past 11 months, but
this marks a historic moment when heads of two armies have a face-to-face
session.
The Milley-Zaluzhnyi meeting on January 17, 2023 came in
the run-up to the two-day (January 18-19, 2023) NATO meeting at Brussels
to be followed up with the Ukraine Contact Group—collection of defense
and military officials from about 50 nations—meeting at the Ramstein Air
Base on January 19 and January 20, 2023.
Interior Minister Killed in Helicopter Crash
A helicopter carrying Ukraine’s Interior Minister Denys Monastyrskyi and
other senior ministry officials crashed into a kindergarten at the eastern Kyiv
suburb of Brovary on a foggy morning on January 18, 2023, killing the minister
and at least 11 others, including a child on ground. Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal
appointed National Police Chief Ihor Klymenko as the acting interior minister.
***************************** GERMAN-MADE TANKS SHIPMENT
Germany will not Object Transferring German-made Tanks to Ukraine
Rooted in its imperialist past and post-World War II cautionary approach, Germany is prudent, and often slow, in providing military hardware and weapons to Ukraine, frustrating its western allies. During two-day (January 19-20, 2023) Ukraine Contact Group meeting at the Ramstein Air Base, the issue of slow-moving approval process by Germany yielded to head scratching and small-scale protest, mostly by Baltic nations and Poland, over shipping of German-made Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine by Poland and other nations. However, German government put a hold on the shipping of Leopard 2 tanks pending a review of its inventory. On January 22, 2023, German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock told the French TV channel LCI that Berlin would not object transferring some of the Leopard tanks to Ukraine. Kyiv asked for Leopard tanks to bolster its defense arsenal.
Poland to Seek German Approval for Shipping Tanks to Ukraine
A day after German Foreign Minister told a French TV station
that Berlin would not stand in the way of Poland shipping Leopard 2
tanks to Ukraine, Polish Premier Mateusz Morawiecki said on January
23, 2023 that he would seek Berlin’s approval for reexporting the
German-made tanks to Ukraine. Germany is giving mixed signal on shipping
armament to Ukraine as it doesn’t want to be seen as directly involved in the conflict.
German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said on January 22, 2023 that
his nation would not rush to a decision. Other nations are planning to ship
tanks too. U.K. has pledged to ship Challenger 2 battle tanks, French
President Emmanuel Macron didn’t rule out shipping Leclerc tanks,
and Morocco has already sent 10 T-72B tanks to Ukraine. Moroccan shipment
will come out to be handy as they are Soviet-made and there is no additional
training needed. Also on the plate are U.S. M1 Abrams tanks.
U.S. to Announce Shipping Abrams Tanks to Ukraine
The Washington Post, quoting anonymous sources, reported on January 24, 2023 that
U.S. would announce on January 25, 2023 of shipping M1 Abrams tanks
to Ukraine, fulfilling a major condition of Chancelor Olaf Scholz-led German
regime that it would grant shipping Leopard 2 tanks from its own arsenal
as well as approve other nations to do so if U.S. also acceded to shipping one
of the most advanced tanks—M1 Abrams—to Ukraine.
U.S., Germany Announce Tank Shipment
On January 25, 2023, U.S. and Germany announced in concert with
each other the decision to ship 31 M1 Abrams tanks and 14 Leopards 2
A6 tanks to Ukraine, respectively. The announcement made hours apart by Chancellor
Olaf Scholz and President Joe Biden complies with Berlin’s demand that
Washington put Abrams on the table as a condition for Berlin to ship Leopard 2
tanks to Ukraine. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky hailed the
decision to form the so called “tank coalition".
Trio to Deliver Leopard 1 Tanks to Ukraine
In a joint statement, Germany, Denmark and the Netherlands said
on February 7, 2023 that they would send refurbished Leopard 1
tanks to Ukraine in the coming months. The tanks are different from the more
advanced Leopard 2 tanks that had led to recent divisions among western
allies of Ukraine, but eventually Germany had agreed to shipping at least 14 of
them and would not object to other European nations shipping to Ukraine. Kyiv
sought the tanks as speculation grew that Russia would intensify its assault
around the first anniversary of its February 24 invasion of Ukraine.
***************************** GERMAN-MADE TANKS SHIPMENT
Russia Launches Barrage of Airstrikes Days after Tank Coalition
Announcement
A day after Germany and U.S. announced shipping battle tanks to Ukraine,
Russia on January 26, 2023 launched barrage of rockets and
self-exploding drones against several cities and other targets in Ukraine,
killing at least 11 people. On January 27, 2023, Russia doubled down by firing
several missiles that targeted areas in Donbas, Kherson and Kharkiv. At least
10 people were reported killed.
Zelensky’s Second Foreign Visit during Conflict
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky took his bid to secure heavy weaponry to the
European heartland on February 8, 2023 with unannounced visits to
Britain and France. It was his second foreign trip after December 2022
trip to Washington to meet with President Joe Biden and address
Congress. On February 8, 2023, he addressed the British Parliament,
lauding the role of Britain and British people to help Kyiv from the “Day One”.
He asked lawmakers for more heavy weapons. British Premier Rishi Sunak
said that nothing was off the table. Later in the day, Zelensky dashed to Paris
and had a working dinner with French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancelor
Olaf Scholz at the Elysee Palace.
Barrage of Russian Missiles Rain down a Day After Kyiv’s Entreaty for EU
Entry
A day after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky made a strong
case at Brussels to seek membership of the European Union, Russia
launched intensified barrage of cruise missiles, S-300 missiles, and
killer drones on February 10, 2023. Ukrainian Army chief Gen. Valerie
Zaluzhnyi said on February 10, 2023 that Russia had launched 71
cruise missiles, 35 S-300 missiles and seven Shaheed drones since
late February 9, 2023. According to Gen. Valerie Zaluzhnyi, 61 cruise
missiles and five drones had been intercepted and destroyed. Russia is
intensifying attacks on ground too at various areas of Donbas, according to Governors
Pavlo Kyrylenko of Donetsk and Serhii Haidai of Luhansk, respectively, in
the run-up to the first anniversary of the February 24, 2022, invasion. Over
the past 24 hours, the cruise missiles were launched from Tu-95 strategic
bombers and warships in the Black Sea, while S-300 missiles were launched from Russia’s
Belgorod region and Russia-occupied Zaporizhzhia region, according to Gen.
Zaluzhnyi.
Russian Attacks, Resistance on Several Fronts Intensify
Bloody battles are being waged in the past 24 hours on several fronts in
and around Bakhmut, according to a press release on February 13, 2023
by Ukraine’s presidential office. Bakhmut’s northern suburb of Paraskovivka
came under “intense shelling and storming actions”. The nearby suburb of Vuhledar
was also attacked.
Ukraine Presses for Fighter Jets
At the Ukraine Contact Group meeting at NATO headquarters in
Brussels on February 14, 2023, Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksiy
Reznikhov pressed the participants for fighter jets, scaling up the demand
of Kyiv after securing advanced tanks, including Leopard 2 tanks, weeks
ago. There is still division among contact group members over the merit of
fighter jets. German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said that
providing Ukraine with ammunition and air defenses “is much more important”
than providing fighter jets. Dutch Defense Minister Kajsa Oilongren, to
the contrary, said that providing jets “has to be part of consideration".
Russia Recaptures a Key Village in Kharkiv, Continues Pummeling Ukraine
Russian forces seized the village of Htyanykivka in Kharkiv region of
Kupyansk that Moscow had lost to Ukrainian forces in November 2022, a
Russian defense ministry spokesman, Igor Konashenkov, said on February 18,
2023. Russia continued its missile attacks on civilian infrastructure. At
least two missile attacks were reported in the western Ukrainian region of
Khmelnytskyi. The region’s military governor, Serhiy Hamaliy, asked
people to take shelter. Vitaly Kim, the military governor of Mykolaiv
region, said that two Russian missiles had flown over his region. President
Volodymyr Zelensky said in his nightly daily video address that western
nations would give Kyiv with more advanced weapons and took pride that in most
of the places electricity was restored within hours after the grid had been hit
by Russian missiles.
Security Council Meeting Called for Minsk Agreement Diverges to Present
Crisis
A U.N. Security Council meeting called on February 17, 2023 to
discuss on lessons learned from the lack of faithful implementation of the Minsk
Agreement delved into a mudslinging engagement among the nations. Russian
envoy Vassily Nebenzia hijacked the session agenda, according to the
western nations, to justify that Moscow had no other options, but to launch
invasion against Ukraine on February 24, 2022. He also blamed Germany
and France—parties to the deal between Ukraine and Russia-backed rebels—for the
failure of the Minsk Agreement. U.S. Deputy Ambassador Richard Mills
blasted Russia for not keeping a single commitment.
NATO will not Tire in Its Support for Ukraine, Biden says
A day after making an hours-long unannounced visit to Ukraine, President
Joe Biden on February 21, 2023 met with Moldovan President Maia Sandu
and Polish President Andrzej Duda, his Polish host. Biden said at the Polish
presidential palace that “we have to have security in Europe” and that’s why
the democracy-loving world in general and Europe in particular needed to “have Ukraine’s
back”. Separately, addressing tens of thousands of people in Warsaw’s Royal
Castle, Biden on February 21, 2023 vowed that “we will not waver” in the west’s
support for Ukraine.
Worldwide Events to Mark a Year of Ukrainian Conflict
From Berlin to Lisbon, from London to Washington, from Talin to Riga,
thousands of people stood in solidarity with Ukrainian resistance on February
24, 2023 to mark the first anniversary of Russian invasion of Ukraine. Ukrainian
President Volodymyr Zelensky said during a commemorative event at Kyiv that
the February 24, 2022 was the “longest day of our lives” and “we woke up
early and haven’t fallen asleep since”. Also, on February 24, 2023, China
acted more like a peacemaker than an indirect ally of Russia. Chinese Foreign
Ministry released a plan on the first anniversary of the conflict that
called for a truce and launch of a negotiation process between Russia and
Ukraine.
Kremlin Accuses Ukraine of Incursion; Nations’ Top Diplomats Meet
Briefly
On March 2, 2023, Russian President Vladimir Putin
justified the invasion of Ukraine, saying that the incursion in Russia’s
Bryansk region by armed Ukrainians and killing of Russian civilians showed “neo-Nazis”
committing “yet another terror attack”. However, Ukrainian authorities disputed
the Russian version, saying that it’s actually a group of Russian dissidents
who had organized under the banner of Russian Volunteer Corps and led
the uprising. Bryansk Governor Alexander Bogomaz said that gunmen killed
two villagers in the village of Lyubechane.
Meanwhile, on the diplomatic front, at least faint ray of hope emerged on
March 2, 2023 as the top diplomats from Russia and U.S. met on the
sidelines of foreign ministers’ meeting of G-20 at New Delhi. Although the
meeting lasted only 10 minutes without any substantive outcome, the mere
meeting between Secretary Anthony Blinken and Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov
raised slight hope that not all were broken down in the worst crisis between
the former Superpowers since Cuban Missile Crisis.
U.S. to Supply Vehicles to Launch Bridges as Part of $400 million
Military Aid
On March 3, 2023, U.S. announced that it would give Ukraine $400
million in military aid, including the game-changer Armored Vehicle
Launch Bridge, or AVLB, military vehicles which could launch portable
bridges across the Dnieper River, now the dividing line between the
warring forces in several regions. The latest tranche of weapons—including AVLB
vehicles, HIMARS (High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems) rockets, and 155 mm
Howitzer rounds—comes from the existing Pentagon stockpile, thus shipping
them to Ukrainian soldiers will be relatively fast as Russia and Ukraine are
gearing up for the upcoming Spring offensive. Since the February 24, 2022,
launch of the war between Ukraine and Russia, United States has sent $32
billion in weapons and equipment.
U.S. has also tripled the number of Ukrainian soldiers being trained by
U.S. forces in German military base of Grafenwoehr in handling, using,
and maintaining advanced weapons such as Bradley fighting vehicles, M109
Paladins, and Stryker personnel carrier. The first batch of 600
Ukrainian soldiers completed their training at Grafenwoehr and the next
batch of 1,600 Ukrainian soldiers are going through the training now.
Biden, Scholz Vow to Continue Pressure on Russia
In his first Oval Office visit since the February 24, 2022,
Russian invasion of Ukraine, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz on March 3,
2023 met with President Joe Biden, and both leaders vowed to work together
on continuing the pressure on Russia.
Ukraine Vows to Defend Bakhmut
After days of contradictory statements on withdrawing from the eastern
city of Bakhmut, which has become the symbol of Ukrainian resistance and
resilience, President’s Office on March 6, 2023 has made it clear that Ukrainian
forces will continue defending the Donetsk city.
Massive Barrage of Rocket Attack by Russia
Launched in October 2022, the rocket and missile attacks on
Ukraine’s critical infrastructure became common in late last year, followed by
a lull early this year, most likely, due to ammunition shortages. The last
massive barrage of air attacks happened on February 16, 2023. Overnight
a “massive rocket attack” was launched by Russia in 10 Ukrainian regions, according
to a statement issued on March 9, 2023 by Ukraine’s president’s office.
Half of Kyiv’s resident’s lost power and hot water supply for hours. Zaporizhzhia
Nuclear Power plant lost power from the main grid and had to be backed up
with back-up diesel generator, marking the sixth time that Europe’s largest
nuclear power plant had lost power since Russia seized its control. Having a
reliable and continuous supply of power to a nuclear power plant is an absolute
requirement for its safety, especially the plant’s cooling system.
Power Restored in Most of Ukraine, Finnish Leader Visits Kyiv
After hours-long barrage of missile strikes in the early hours of March
9, 2023 that had struck residential buildings and critical infrastructure
in 10 regions and killed at least six people, power and water supply were quickly
restored in most of Ukraine, according to media reports on March 10, 2023.
Washington-based Institute for the Study of War said in an assessment on
March 10, 2023 that this type of “missile strikes will not undermine
Ukraine’s will or improve Russia’s positions on the front lines".
Separately in a victorious sign of quickly returning to normalcy in the
worst barrage of missile strikes since February 16, 2023 in which
Russian military had used hypersonic Kinzhal Cruise Missiles in the wee
hours of March 9, 2023, Finnish Prime Minister Sanna Marin made
an unannounced visit to Kyiv on March 10, 2023 and joined Ukrainian
President Volodymyr Zelensky and other Ukrainian military officials to
attend the funeral of a renowned Ukrainian commander, Dmytro Kotsiubailo,
who had been killed few days ago defending the Donetsk city of Bakhmut.
Bakhmut Progress Likely to Lead Significant Bloodshed
The U.K. Defense Ministry said in its latest assessment on March
11, 2023 that Russian military had made progress in Bakhmut, a
Donetsk city that had become a grinding chokehold since Russia had launched its
attack on the city in August 2022 and Ukraine had begun to resist
valiantly. The U.K. Defense Ministry assessment added that, despite
progress, Russia would suffer major losses in lives to sustain the city in the
longer run.
Nearly $78 billion Earmarked for Ukraine since War’s Start
The Dallas Morning News reported in a front-page article on March
13, 2023 that the U.S. had earmarked—based on the estimate provided by German
research institute Kiel Institute for the World Economy—circa $77.5 billion
since February 24, 2022, invasion. Military aid accounts for $46.6
billion, including the costs to replenish the depleted U.S. military
stockpiles for weapons supplied to Kyiv.
U.S. Surveillance Drone Destroyed by Russian Fighter Jet
The U.S. European Command said in a statement on March 14, 2023 that
two Russian Su-23 fighter jets “conducted an unsafe and unprofessional
intercept” of a U.S. drone, MQ-9 drone, in the international airspace
over the Black Sea. One of the fighter jets collided with the drone, and U.S. operated
the drone to plunge into Black Sea. Russia denied the allegation. This marks
the first time since the Cold War that a U.S. aircraft was brought down by an
adversarial air collision.
First Call in Five Months between Defense Chiefs as Tension Rises over
Collapsed Drone
A day after a U.S. drone, MQ-9 Reaper drone, had been struck by a
Russian fighter jet near Crimea, leading to the drone’s crash into Black Sea,
Moscow and Washington ratcheted up rhetoric on March 15, 2023 with
competing and contrasting narrative of what this incident did truly represent
about the aggressive behavior of the other party. U.S. said that it showed
Russia’s “aggressive, risky and unsafe actions” while Russia portrayed this
incident as another proof that U.S. was directly involved in Ukraine war. On March
15, 2023, U.S. Defense Minister Lloyd Austin spoke to his Russian
counterpart, Sergei Shoigu, for the first time in five months.
ICC Issues Arrest Warrants for Putin, another Russian Official
International Criminal Court at The Hague took a historic and
unprecedented step on March 17, 2023 by issuing arrest warrants for Russian
President Vladimir Putin and a second Russian official, children’s right
commissioner Maria Lvova-Belova. The arrest warrants have been issued as
the targeted parties are accused of violating the Fourth Geneva Convention
that makes forcible transfer or deportation of protected people by an occupying
power illegal. In the context of Ukraine conflict, President Putin’s May
2022 order to make it easy for Russians to adopt Ukrainian children had led
to deportation of about 16,000 Ukrainian children from orphanages and children’s
care homes in the occupied Ukrainian territories for adoption by Russians and thus,
constituted a crime under the Fourth Geneva Convention. Although ICC can’t
try defendants in absentia, the arrest warrants are major prestigious and
political blow to Russia and its president. Circa 123 nations are signatory to the
legal standing of ICC, but neither Russia nor U.S. is.
Putin Visits Crimea to Mark Annexation’s 9th Anniversary
A day after the International Criminal Court issued the first
ever arrest warrant against the head of state of a permanent member nation of
the U.N. Security Council, Russian President Vladimir Putin on March
18, 2023 visited Sevastopol to mark the 9th anniversary of the annexation
of Crimea. In addition to Putin, ICC on March 17, 2023 issued arrest
warrant against Commissioner for Children’s Rights in the Office of the President
of the Russian Federation Maria Lvova-Belova on charges of abduction and
forceful transportation of Ukrainian children. Putin and Mikhail Razvozhayev, Moscow’s
hand-picked governor, visited a children’s arts center, Children’s Arts and
Aesthetic Center in Crimea, during the day. Undaunted by the ICC arrest
warrant, Putin justified the invasion of Ukraine.
Putin Visits Mariupol
On late March 18, 2023, Russian President Vladimir Putin
flew in a helicopter from annexed Crimean Peninsula to another Russia-controlled
Ukrainian city, Mariupol, that had been annexed in September 2022.
Mariupol was the symbol of Ukrainian resistance, but eventually gave in in May
2022. On March 19, 2023, Putin, who faces war crimes charges on the
count of abduction of Ukrainian children and transporting them to Russia, has
toured various parts of the port city on the Sea of Azov.
Xi’s Visit to Russia Lifts Putin, Gives a Political Swagger
In a harsh response to the International Criminal Court’s issuance
of an arrest warrant against Putin on war crimes charges related to abduction
of Ukrainian children, China and Russia defied the west by deepening their
bond. On March 20, 2023, Chinese President Xi Jinping met with
Russian President Vladimir Putin at Kremlin. Writing in the China’s People’s
Daily, Putin portrayed Jinping’s three-day (March 20-22, 2023) state
visit to Russia as an opportunity for Beijing and Moscow to reaffirm the “special
nature of Russia-China partnership".
Dueling Visits by Leaders of Two Asian Giants; U.S. Upgrades Troops Presence
in Poland
Circa 500 miles apart, Japanese Premier Fumio Kishida and Chinese
President Xi Jinping visited capitals of two warring nations on March
21, 2023 and gave two contrasting narratives. Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin
floated a Beijing-sponsored proposal to end the war that’s a non-starter to the
west. Any truce without territorial integrity is seen in the western capitals
as not a serious proposal. On March 21, 2023, Japanese Premier Fumio
Kishida has met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky at Kyiv weeks
before the G-7 summit that he will host in May 2023. Kishida is the last
head of state among G-7 nations to visit Ukraine. During the day, he visited
Bucha.
On March 21, 2023, Russian leaders have taken strong exception to
a British plan unveiled a day earlier to ship ammunition containing depleted
Uranium to Ukraine.
On March 21, 2023, Polish Defense Minister Mariusz Blaszczak and
U.S. Defense officials inaugurated the elevation of U.S. troops presence in
Poland to garrison level, matching the profile of former Warsaw Pact
nation to that of Germany (3 garrisons), Belgium (one garrison) and Italy (one
garrison). President Joe Biden pledged in the last year’s NATO summit to
upgrade the U.S. military presence to garrison level for the first time in the
30-nation defense alliance’s eastern flank.
Russia Escalates Attacks after a Pair of High-Profile Visits
Hours after, or in the midst of, a pair of visits by the heads of two
Asian giants at the dueling capitals, Russia launched missile strikes and
exploding drones, targeting residential areas in Kyiv, Zaporizhzhia and
other cities on March 22, 2023 that had killed at least seven people. Ukrainian
President Volodymyr Zelensky blasted Russia’s “bestial savagery”. The
renewed attack pummeled various parts of Ukraine hours after Japanese
Premier Fumio Kishida had left Kyiv and Chinese President Xi Jinping
was wrapping up his three-day visit to Moscow.
U.N. Human Rights Office Reports Torture, Summary Killings by Both Sides
U.N. Human Rights Office’s mission in Ukraine on March 24, 2023
released the most updated report on the state of affairs of POW treatment,
abuses and tortures on both sides. Releasing the report at Kyiv, Matilda
Bogner, the head of the mission at Ukraine for the U.N. Human Rights
Office, said on March 24, 2023 that “up to 25 Russian prisoners of war”
had been executed since the war had erupted on February 24, 2022. The
mission interviewed circa 400 people, including about half of them released
from Russian captivity as well as Russians under Ukrainian detention.
Bakhmut Becomes a Grinding for Russia, Ukraine
As the war of attrition over Bakhmut reached a critical stage with
Russian regular forces and Wagner Group’s private militia on one side and
Ukrainian forces on the other, the Donetsk town had become a grinding chokehold
for both Russia and Ukraine. On March 25, 2023, Ukraine’s military
chief, Gen. Valerii Zaluzhnyi, had a phone conversation with Adm. Sir
Tony Radakin, Britain’s chief of defense staff, to discuss on military
progress, or lack of it, as the grinding at Bakhmut had kept forces from both
nations at eyeball-to-eyeball proximity of confrontation.
Ukraine Calls for an Emergency U.N. Security Council Session
The entire rhetorical escalation began with Russian President
Vladimir Putin saying in a TV interview aired on March 25, 2023 that
Moscow would deploy tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus. Russian
president alluded to the recent British decision to ship ammunition containing depleted
Uranium to Ukraine as a chief trigger for the Russian deployment plan for tactical
nuclear weapons in Belarus. Putin added that the U.S. was doing the
same “for decades, stationing them in certain allied countries".
On March 26, 2023, Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry issued a
statement, condemning Russian plan to deploy tactical nuclear weapons in
Belarus. The statement called for an emergency U.N. Security Council
session, calling the Russian move as endangering the “future of human
civilization".
Grossi Warns of a Nuclear Disaster
On March 27, 2023, the IAEA chief, Rafael Grossi, met with Ukrainian
President Volodymyr Zelensky at the city of Zaporizhzhia, and raised
premonition about a nuclear disaster at the Russia-controlled Zaporizhzhia
Nuclear Power Plant, the largest nuclear power plant in Europe. All six
reactors of Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant are now deactivated and the plant
receives the power only from one power line that provides the needed
electricity to keep the cooling system operational and prevent the power plant from
a meltdown. Because of the ongoing conflict, almost half a dozen times the plant’s
connection to the sole power line was disrupted, necessitating the
diesel-operated generators to be turned on as a backup. This sort of
brinkmanship happened repeatedly, including earlier in March 2023. The IAEA
chief is planning to visit Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant this week,
and this will be his second visit. The city of Zaporizhzhia is about 30
miles northeast of the power plant. The Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant is
controlled by Russians, while the city of Zaporizhzhia is controlled by
Ukrainians.
Zelensky also visited the military positions in Zaporizhzhia and handed
military honors to soldiers. Zelensky also visited the wounded soldiers at a
hospital. Later in the day on March 27, 2023, Zelensky has visited the
city of Nikopol, the city located across the Dnieper River off the
Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant.
IAEA Chief Visits Nuclear Power Plant
International Atomic Research Agency Director-General Rafael Mariano
Grossi on March 29, 2023 visited the largest Ukrainian nuclear power plant.
Russia Trying to Procure North Korean Weapons in Exchange for Food
In recent months, Biden administration is showing more and more
proclivity to declassify intelligence information to bring spotlight and shame
on Russia for Moscow’s effort to turn to “rogue” nations such as Iran and North
Korea to replenish its depleted weapons inventory. On March 30, 2023, White
House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby alleged that Russia was in
negotiation with North Korea to receive weapons from North Korea in exchange
for supplying food to the reclusive nation.
********* THE WALL STREET JOURNAL REPORTER ARRESTED ON ESIONAGE CHARGE
American Journalist Arrested in Russia’s Fourth-largest City
The Wall Street Journal correspondent Evan Gershkovich was
arrested on March 30, 2023 at Yekaterinburg, Russia’s fourth-largest
city about 1,035 miles east of Moscow, on espionage charges. Russia’s
Federal Security Service, or FSB, detained Gershkovich. The Wall Street Journal
issued a statement during the day that “vehemently denies the allegations from
the FSB and seeks the immediate release of our trusted and dedicated reporter,
Evan Gershkovich”. This is the first arrest of an American reporter in Russia since
September 1986, when Nicholas Daniloff, a Moscow correspondent
for the U.S. News and World Report was arrested by the KGB. Daniloff was
released as part of a swap for the release of an employee with the Soviet Union’s
U.N. Mission in the USA.
News Organizations Sign a Joint Letter Seeking Release of American
Journalist
At least 30 media freedom groups and news organizations, including The
Wall Street Journal, The Washington Post, BBC, The New Yorker and The
New York Times, on March 31, 2023 signed in a joint letter to Russian
Ambassador to the U.S. Anatoly I. Antonov, seeking the release of The
Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich, who had been detained
a day earlier by Russia’s Federal Security Service, or FSB, on charges
of espionage, making Gershkovich the first American to be detained in Russia in
37 years. The letter calls out Kremlin’s “significant escalation in your
government’s anti-press actions".
Blinken Phones Lavrov, Calls for Journalist’s Release
U.S. Foreign Secretary Anthony Blinken on April 2, 2023 called his Russian
counterpart, Sergey Lavrov, to express his “grave concern over Russia’s
unacceptable detention” of The Wall Street Journal reporter Evan
Gershkovich, and asked for his immediate release. Blinken also called for the
release of Paul Whelan, a former U.S. Marine detained in 2018 and
convicted of espionage in 2020.
Reporter Faces Espionage Charge
Two Russian media sources reported on April 7, 2023 that The
Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gerskovich had been charged on
espionage. State-owned Tass and Interfax news agency didn’t divulge the day and
time when the charges had been filed FSB, successor of KGB.
Biden Admin Officially Determines the Journalist to have been “Wrongfully
Detained”
Biden administration on April 10, 2023 officially determined that The Wall Street
Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich had been “wrongfully detained”.
The official determination is a key development as it will entail the official
focus and planning of resource allocation to secure his release.
The Wall Street Journal Reporter can be a Part of Prisoner Swap
Russia is most likely to follow its old playbook as it will put the
recently detained reporter of The Wall Street Journal to trial first and
then open talks on a possible prisoner swap. Russian Deputy Sergei Rybakov
told Taas on April 13, 2023 that “we have a working channel” of
communication with the U.S. and talks could be held via that “dedicated channel”,
but espionage trial against Evan Gerskovich would begin first.
Envoy Visits American Journalist
On April 17, 2023, U.S. Envoy Lynne Tracy visited The
Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gerskovich at Moscow’s Lefortovo prison.
American Journalist Ordered by the Court to Have Extended Detention for Additional 90 Days through August 20, 2023, according to May 24, 2023, edition of The Dallas Morning News
U.S. Ambassador Visits Jailed Journalist
The U.S. State Department issued a statement on August 14, 2023 that U.S.
Ambassador to Russia Lynne Tracy visited The Wall Street Journal
correspondent Evan Gerskovich in jail during the day.
Journalist Should Stay behind Bars, Court Rules
A Moscow court on August 24, 2023 ruled that Evan Gerskovich, The Wall Street Journal reporter, should stay in detention until the end November 2023.
Jailed Wall Street Journal Correspondent’s Imprisonment Extended
A Russian court on November 28, 2023 extended the stay of The
Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gerskovich behind the bars until January
30, 2024.
********* THE WALL STREET JOURNAL REPORTER ARRESTED ON ESIONAGE CHARGE
Anniversary of Bucha Liberation Commemorated
The epicenter of Russian atrocities stood out as a burning example of evil
and destructive face of perpetration a year after its liberation as the first
anniversary was marked on March 31, 2023 with remembrance and resolve. Ukrainian
President Volodymyr Zelensky led the main event on March 31, 2023 at
Bucha.
Ukrainian Priest Put under House Arrest
That the sequel to Ukraine conflict has touched raw nerve even in the
deeply polarized Orthodox Church system is playing out openly in Ukraine. On April
1, 2023, a Ukrainian court ordered Metropolitan Pavel, abbot of the
Kyiv-Pechersk Larva monastery, most revered Orthodox institution in Ukraine, to
be put under house arrest and having an ankle monitor. Ukrainian authorities has
accused the Ukrainian Orthodox Church, or UOC, of having maintained close
relations with its Russian cousin, Russian Orthodox Church, and its leader,
Patriarch Kirill, whom Kyiv accused of supporting Vladimir Putin. The
government ordered the monks to leave the compound, Monastery of Caves, by
March 29, 2023. Since the monks didn’t leave the site, the court had ruled
against the abbot.
*********** PRO-RUSSIAN BLOGGER ASSASSINATED
Pro-war Russian Blogger Killed in an Explosion at St. Petersburg
A pro-war Russian blogger was killed in an explosion at a St.
Petersburg café, according to the Russia’ s Interior Ministry statement
issued on April 2, 2023. The explosion injured 16 other people. Vladlen
Tatarsky was one of the most articulate and ardent war bloggers, and a key
backer of the war effort in Ukraine. Tatarsky was an alias, and his real name
was Maksim Fomin. According to The Washington Post, in the past, Fomin
fought alongside Donbas secessionists. Maksim Fomin was also rumored to
be close to Yevgeniy Prigozhin, founder of the dreaded Wagner Group.
Russia Blames Ukraine for Café Bombing
Russian agency that coordinates all counter-terrorism activities, National
Anti-Terrorist Committee, on April 3, 2023 accused “Ukrainian special
services” of planning the bombing at a café in the heart of St. Petersburg
on the Neva River a day ago that had killed pro-war blogger Vladlen Tatarsky,
pen name for Maxim Fomin, and wounded at least 30. Authorities arrested a
26-year-old woman named Darya Trepova, who had handed a wrapped
statuette to Fomin before the explosion. The bomb was hidden in that gift.
Authorities said that Trepova had participated in anti-war demonstration on February
24, 2022, the day the war had begun, and spent 10 days behind the bars.
*********** PRO-RUSSIAN BLOGGER ASSASSINATED
Belarusian President Says that Strategic Nuclear Weapons to be Deployed
Going a step further than what Russia said, Belarusian President
Alexander Lukashenko said on March 31, 2023 that Russia would deploy
strategic nuclear weapons in Belarus. If strategic nuclear weapons
are deployed, things will change overnight in relations between Russia and NATO.
Russia, though, is still officially sticking to its original plan for deploying
tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus around July 1, 2023.
On April 2, 2023, Russian Ambassador to Belarus Boris Gryzlov
said that tactical nuclear weapons would be deployed close to western borders,
bringing Russian nukes to NATO’s doorsteps.
U.S. to Give Ukraine an Additional $2.6 billion in Military Aid and
Ammunition
U.S. on April 4, 2023 announced its latest tranche of military
aid for Ukraine, taking the total military aid that U.S. had provided to
Ukraine since Russia’s February 24, 2022, invasion to at least $35
billion. The latest package includes $500 million in ammunition and
equipment, according to U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, who
has shared the information with other foreign ministers at a NATO meeting in
Brussels that has granted the accession of Finland into NATO. Blinken said that
“ammunition for U.S.-provided HIMARS” would help Ukraine repel Russian attacks.
The remaining $2.1 billion will be part of the Ukraine Security Assistance
Initiative, and includes National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile System,
or NASAMS, as well as radars, satellite terminals and fuel tankers.
Zelensky’s First Official, Announced Overseas Trip Received with Warmth
That the Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky would pay his first
official visit to a nation that had hosted millions of Ukrainian refugees was
of no surprise to anyone. On April 5, 2023, Zelensky and the Ukrainian
First Lady were bequeathed with state honor by Polish leaders. In Warsaw,
Zelensky addressed thousands of his country’s people who had embraced new way
of life in the capital and other Polish cities. Addressing a news conference
with his Polish counterpart, Andrzej Duda, Ukrainian President Volodymyr
Zelensky said on April 5, 2023 that he would be willing to withdraw
Ukrainian troops from the besieged city of Bakhmut if the troops were
encircled from the all sides to save as many lives as possible, a marked
difference from his earlier stand of holding on to Bakhmut at any cost.
Zelensky lavished praise on Poland for its military support to Ukraine,
economic aid, and hosting millions of exiled Ukrainians. Duda vowed to help
Ukraine militarily, checking off from a list of military gears, including four Soviet-designed
MiG-29 fighter jets that had been already delivered and more were on the way to
be delivered.
Separately, Volodymyr Zelensky and Polish Prime Minister Mateusz
Morawiecki signed agreements for Ukraine’s infrastructure rebuilding and
other investments. According to a World Bank estimate, Ukraine requires
at least $411 billion for the post-war rebuilding endeavor.
PRISONER SWAP: Russia, Ukraine Swap more than 200 Prisoners
Ukraine on April 10, 2023 brought back about 100 prisoners
held captive by Russia in exchange for handing over 106 Russian prisoners to
Moscow, achieving a rare milestone of success. Andriy Yermak, the
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s chief of staff, said that many of
the Ukrainian prisoners bore the marks of severe wounds and the negotiation
leading to the prisoner swap was “not an easy one”, without divulging what he had
meant by that. Ukraine’s Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of
Prisoners of War alleged that at least half of 80 men and 20 women freed by
Russia on April 10, 2023 “have serious injuries, illnesses or have been
tortured".
Crimea Ready for any Potential Ukrainian Attack, Canada Pledges More
Military Help
The ruler of Russia-backed administration of Crimea, Sergei Aksyonov,
on April 11, 2023 said that Crimea was ready to defend against any possible
Ukrainian attack. There is ongoing fortification of several key areas in Crimea.
On April 11, 2023, Canadian Premier Justin Trudeau
announced additional military aid—circa 21,000 assault rifles and 2.4 million
rounds of ammunition—for Ukraine as he hosted Ukrainian Premier Denys
Shmyhal in Toronto.
Bakhmut Fighting Heats up, China not to Give Weapons to Moscow
Last 48 hours have seen massive fighting in Bakhmut between
Russian forces along with Wagner Group fighters on one hand and Ukrainian
defenders on the other, according to a U.K. Defense Analysis report issued
on April 14, 2023. The fighting was intense on the western side of the
city. The resistance in Bakhmut, now almost in its ninth month,
epitomizes the resilience of Ukrainian fighting spirit against the concerted
effort of Russian army and Wagner Group.
On April 14, 2023, Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang for
the first time officially stated that Beijing would not supply arms to either
side of the conflict, addressing a major concern among western nations, and
added that his nation would restrict “dual use” item exports to Russia too.
At least 11 killed in Apartment Strike at Sloviansk
Ukrainian authorities said on April 15, 2023 that the Russian
airstrike that had hit a day earlier an apartment building in the Donetsk town
of Sloviansk killed at least 11.
Orthodox Easter Prisoner Swap Brings Glimpse of Joy to Warring Nations
It was a joyful Easter Sunday for dozens of Ukrainian and Russian
families as their loved ones—circa 130 Ukrainians and an unspecified number
of Russians—were released on April 16, 2023 as part of an Eastern
Orthodox prisoner swap plan. Delivering his Easter message on April 16, 2023,
morning, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky called the Easter a “day
of warmth, hope and great unity” from the “time immemorial".
However, Russian missile strikes continued unabated on this holy day
too. Governor Serhii Lysak of the Dnipropetrovsk region said in a Telegram
post on April 16, 2023 that Russian forces stationed in Zaporizhzhia
Nuclear Power Plant shelled an Orthodox church in a nearby town. Another
Orthodox church in the town Komyshuvaska in Zaporizhzhia was attacked overnight
by Russian shelling.
Kremlin Critic Sentenced a Quarter Century on Treason
A Russian court on April 17, 2023 sentenced a Putin critic and
dissident politician, Vladimir Kara-Murza, Jr., to 25 years in
prison on treason charges. Vladimir Kara-Murza gave a speech at the Arizona
House of Representatives in March 2022 at the request of Phoenix Council of
Foreign Relations, condemning the Russian invasion of Ukraine, then in its first
month. In the aftermath of the February 24, 2022, invasion, Russian
lawmakers made it illegal to spread misinformation, targeting war protesters
and other Kremlin critics. Initially Russian authorities charged the Russian-British
citizen on those charges, but later added treason-related charges for ties to
inimical foreign organizations.
Contrasting Pictures of Visits Define the Conflict as Kyiv Set to
Receive First Patriot Battery
Kremlin circulated a video on April 18, 2023 of President
Vladimir Putin making a trip to command centers for Russian military
campaign in Kherson and Luhansk. He visited Kherson and
Luhansk on April 17, 2023, according to Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov. It’s
not clear from the video where exactly locations of Putin’s visits to Kherson
and Luhansk are. On April 18, 2023, Ukrainian President Volodymyr
Zelensky visited front line Donetsk city of Avdiivka, where he had
taken photos and selfies with Ukrainian soldiers and gave awards. The dueling
presidential visits are seen as precursor to a Spring offensive.
On April 18, 2023, Germany’s official federal website stated that
the country had delivered a Patriot missile system to Ukraine. Patriot missile
system is a guided surface-to-air missile system first deployed in 1980s that
can target warplanes, cruise missiles and short-range ballistic missiles. A
typical Patriot battery includes six mobile launchers, a mobile radar, a power
generator, and an engagement control tower. It takes up to 90 troops to run and maintain a Patriot missile battery. Each Patriot missile costs $4 million and each mobile launcher costs circa $10 million. President Volodymyr Zelensky
pressed U.S., Germany and other western nations for at least 20 Patriot missile
batteries.
U.S. Patriot Missiles Received by Ukraine; U.S. Announces $325 million
in Military Aid
A day after Germany’s federal website disclosed that the first Patriot
missile battery had been sent to Ukraine, Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov said
in a tweet on April 19, 2023 that Kyiv had received Patriot missiles
from the U.S.
Also, on April 19, 2023, U.S. announced its 36th
installment of military aid with a price tag of $325 million.
Pentagon will send ammunition and artillery rounds, among others, from its
stockpile. With the latest package, total U.S. military aid for Ukraine now
stands $36 billion.
NATO Chief Visits Kyiv, Reiterates that Ukraine’s Place in NATO
NATO Chief Jens Stoltenberg on April 20, 2023 paid a surprise
visit to Kyiv and met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. NATO
chief has stressed on what NATO leaders in 2008 have formally stated: one day,
Ukraine will join the NATO alliance. NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg
on April 20, 2023 said that Ukraine’s “rightful place is in NATO”. Russia’s
one of the key reasons for invasion was to prevent Ukraine from joining NATO.
Key Defense Group Meets, U.S. to Give Abrams Training, Russia Bombs Own
City
Defense ministers and key officials, including military leaders, from
about 50 nations of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group met at Germany’s
Ramstein Air Base on April 21, 2023 to strategize and prioritize the
delivery of military wares and weapons to Ukraine. U.S. Defense Secretary
Lloyd Austin said that U.S. would soon train Ukrainian forces in use of Abrams
tanks. U.S. will send 31 M1A1 tanks to Germany’s Grafenwoehr Training
Area around late May 2023 to conduct a 10-week training for circa 250
Ukrainian soldiers in operation, maintenance, and upkeep of the tanks. U.S.
will not send the same Abrams tanks to the battlefield, instead it will send 31
refurbished Abrams tanks to the frontline. During Ukraine Defense
Contact Group meeting, Germany and Poland announced creating a military
maintenance base in Poland, close to Ukraine, to maintain, service, upkeep and
refurbish Leopard 2 tank fleet. German Defense Minister Boris
Pistorius said on April 21, 2023 that, like any other thing, nations
would share the annual cost of $165 to $220 million needed to run such
maintenance base.
Russian Defense Ministry on April 21, 2023 acknowledged that an
Su-34 Supersonic fighter jet accidentally dropped munition on a Russian
border city, Belgorod, late April 20, 2023, wounding at least three people and
creating a large crater on the street.
Sea Drones Try to Attack Crimean Port, Exploding Drone Found near Moscow
The Russia-appointed ruler of Crimean seaport of Sevastopol, Mikhail
Razvozhayev, on April 24, 2023 said that the security forces had foiled
an attack by a sea drone on the main Russian naval base on the Black Sea. A
second sea drone exploded in the waters.
Meanwhile, Russian authorities said that they had found an Ukrainian explosives-filled
drone at a forest 20 miles east of Moscow.
Missile Strike on a Museum Kills Two, Wounds 10
A Russian S-300 missile on April 25, 2023 struck a local museum
in a Kharkiv city, Kupiansk, killing two people and wounding 10. Ukrainian
President Volodymyr Zelensky denounced the airstrike targeting a civilian
museum, calling the episode a terrorist effort to destroy “our history, our
culture, our people”. Kupiansk fell under Russian control in the first
days of invasion, but in September 2022, Ukrainian troops ousted Russian
soldiers from the vast swath of Kharkiv, including Kupiansk.
Zelensky, Jinping Talk over Phone
On April 26, 2023, Chinese President Xi Jinping held talks
over phone for more than an hour with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to
discuss on ways to end the fighting. Later in the day, President Zelensky
dubbed the phone call as “long and meaningful".
A Bloody Friday: Russia Fires a Barrage of Cruise Missiles
April 28, 2023 turned out to be one of the bloodiest days in the Ukrainian War Theater as
at least 20 cruise missiles and two drones had struck various areas in
Ukraine, killing at least 23 people—including two children. Some of the missiles were launched toward the capital Kyiv, first
attack targeting the capital since March 9, 2023. Ukrainian military
chief Gen. Valerii Zaluzhnyi said on April 28, 2023 that Ukrainian air
defense was able to neuter 21 of 23 Kh-101 and Kh-555 Cruise missiles. Most of the deaths happened in two missile strikes on an apartment building at the Central Ukrainian town of Uman. Six children were among the dead in Russian strikes.
Seven Foreign Ministers, Two Heads of State in Ukraine on the Same Day
It’s a quite phenomenal and unthinkable during peacetime that the heads
of state from two prominent European nations will visit Kyiv on the same day as
the Ukrainian foreign minister is hosting his counterparts, or high-level
foreign ministry officials, from eight Baltic and Nordic states at the
southern port city of Odessa. On April 28, 2023, following hours of
barrage of Russian cruise missile and drone strikes that had killed at least 23
people, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba hosted his counterparts
from Sweden, Norway, Iceland, Denmark, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania at
Odessa to discuss a common strategy to help out Ukrainian people. Because
of the ongoing government formation talks, Finland was represented by a
high-level ministry official. Tobias Billstrom, foreign minister of Sweden,
which currently holds the rotating EU presidency, has marveled at how Russia
has been able to garner and solidify more support for Ukraine through its
invasion.
Meanwhile, Czech President Petr Pavel and Slovak President Zuzana
Caputova met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky at Kyiv on April 28,
2023.
A Double-Drone Attack Sets a Crimean Oil Depot Ablaze
A twin drone attack on April 29, 2023 set an oil depot on the
shore of the Black Sea in the Crimean capital of Sevastopol on ferocious
fire, according to Moscow-appointed Governor Mikhail Razvozhayev. Moscow-appointed
Crimean authorities blamed Ukraine for the drone attack. Crimea’s
Moscow-appointed governor, Sergei Aksyonov, said that a third drone was
destroyed, and a fourth drone was incapacitated by the defense technology. Ukrainian
President Volodymyr Zelensky said earlier this week that Ukraine would
liberate Crimea in a counteroffensive. Russian President Vladimir Putin visited
Crimea last month a day after an arrest warrant was issued by the International
Criminal Court.
Ukraine Buries the Dead in Uman; Strikes Hit Kherson; Russian Village
Attacked
On April 30, 2023, relatives and mourners bade goodbye to dozens
of victims of a pair of Russia’s missile strikes on an apartment building two
days ago in the central city of Uman. Among the victims were six
children, according to Ukrainian Interior Minister Ihor Klymenko.
On April 30, 2023, Kherson Governor Oleksandr Prokudin said that
his region had come under Russian airstrikes 27 times in the past 24 hours.
Kherson will play a key role if Ukraine goes forward with its plan to launch an
expected counteroffensive because of its location adjacent to Crimea.
The governor of a Russian border region said on April 30, 2023
that a Ukrainian rocket attack had killed two people in the village of Suzemka,
six miles from the Ukrainian border in Bryansk region. Bryansk regional Governor
Alexander Bogomaz added that two others were injured in the attack. Bryansk
and Belgorod bore the brunt of cross-border attacks.
Two Killed in Russian Aerial Strike
An avalanche of missiles rained down on May 1, 2023, targeting
Kyiv and beyond. 18 Cruise missiles were fired from the Murmansk and Caspian
regions, and 15 had been intercepted, according to the Ukrainian Army Chief
of Staff, Chief Valerii Zaluzhyi.
Russia May be Facing Missile Shortage, U.S. Announces 37th
Tranche of Arms Shipment
Russia may be facing critical missile shortage as the country’s defense
chief, Sergei Shoigu, on May 2, 2023 asked the officials from state-owned
Tactical Missile Corporation at a meeting to double the production of
precision missiles.
As Ukraine is preparing for a spring counteroffensive, its biggest arms
benefactor, United States, on May 2, 2023 announced 37th weapons
package for Ukraine. The $300 million arms package will be drawn
from the Pentagon inventory, and include Hydra-70 rockets, HIMARS
rockets, mortars, Howitzers rounds, missiles, and Carl Gustaf
anti-tank missiles. With the May 2, 2023, announcement, U.S.
military aid totaled $36 billion since the Ukraine War began 14 months
ago.
Drones Target Kremlin and Russian President
It’s an act in reversal in order, implying that instead of Russia going
after the life of Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukraine, it seems, carries out a hot
pursuit against Russia’s president. On May 3, 2023, Russian authorities
blamed Ukraine for carrying out the “terrorist act”. Two drones were about to
attack Kremlin at 2:30AM on May 3, 2023 when Russia’s defense operation
disabled both drones. Russian President Vladimir Putin was not in Kremlin
during that time, according to Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov.
Wagner Group Threatens to Withdraw from Besieged City
Citing ammunition shortage, Wagner Group head Yevgeny Prigozhin threatened
on May 5, 2023 that he would withdraw fighters from the city of Bakhmut
in Donbas beginning May 10, 2023. Bakhmut remains the potent symbol of
Ukrainian resistance and represents the longest battlefront to repel Russian
attack. Prigozhin accused Russian military of not supplying ammunition to his
soldiers.
Ukraine Destroys Hypersonic Missile
In the first known case of using the Patriot missile defense system,
Ukraine said on May 6, 2023 that it had destroyed a Kh-47 missile,
a hypersonic missile of Kinzhal class with 1,250-mile range and 10 times the
speed of sound, over Kyiv region on May 4, 2023. The missile was
launched from a MiG-31K from Russian sky.
Russia’s Evacuation from Nuclear Plant’s Near-by Communities Sets Alarm
That the Russia-installed governor of Zaporizhzhia, Yegeny Balitsky,
on May 5, 2023 issued evacuation order for 18 communities near Zaporizhzhia
Nuclear Power Plant, the largest nuclear power plant in Europe, including Enerhodar,
home to most of the plant’s employees, set an immediate alarm that there might
be security breach in the nuclear power plant. IAEA Director-General Rafael
Grossi said on May 6, 2023 that the situation “is becoming
increasingly unpredictable and potentially dangerous".
Russia Scales down Victory Day
Reflecting the present state of affairs of Russian army, Russia has scaled down the celebratory events to mark this year’s Victory Day. The real concern was the fear of drone strikes deep inside Russia, thus forcing the authorities cancel all airshows on May 9, 2023. Russian President Vladimir Putin said that a “real war has been unleashed against our motherland”. The number of troops that participated in the parade at Moscow’s Red Square was circa 8,000, the lowest since 2008. Many of the Russian troops are deployed in the frontline.
Meanwhile, Wagner Group head Yevgeny Prigozhin said in a video
posted on the Telegram on May 9, 2023 that despite assurances,
ammunitions were not supplied to the Wagner fighters, who had been fighting to take
control of Bakhmut. Wagner Group didn’t withdraw its fighters from Bakhmut despite
threatening days ago to do so.
Ukraine Seizes Areas close to Bakhmut
Ukrainian military and defense ministry officials, including Deputy
Defense Minister Hanna Maliar, said on May 12, 2023 that Ukrainian soldiers
regained control of 1.2 miles of strip south of Bakhmut, marking a clear
gain in Kyiv’s endeavor to push out Russian soldiers and private fighters from the
vantage positions from where they had aimed at seizing the epicenter of the longest
resistance in the war. Even Wagner Group founder Yevgeny Prigozhin, who
often wrangles with the Russian Defense Ministry, lampooned it on May 12,
2023 in a video statement that “our flanks are crumbling".
Zelensky in Cross-European Trip; Wagner Boss Trades Russians
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is firming up support among European partners
in terms of political, military, and economic help. On May 13, 2023,
President Zelensky met with Pope Francis at Vatican and requested Holy
See’s more assertive and forceful moral intervention to end the Russia’s
aggression. Although Vatican called for end to the conflict, it stayed neutral
on the sides. Volodymyr Zelensky also met with Italian Prime Minister
Giorgia Meloni.
On May 14, 2023, Zelensky met with German Chancelor Olaf
Scholz, and appreciating the help that his nation had received from Berlin,
President Volodymyr Zelensky pointed out that Germany was the
second-largest benefactor of Ukraine after the U.S., and made a humor that he
was working to make Germany the largest benefactor. A day before, Germany
announced an additional $3 billion in additional military aid, including
tanks, antiaircraft systems and ammunition, bringing the total bilateral aid to
at least $18.4 billion. A joint communique issued by Scholz and Zelensky supported effort to
bring the human rights abusers and perpetrators to the full force of
international justice.
On May 14, 2023, President Volodymyr Zelensky arrived at Elysee
Palace to meet with French President Emmanuel Macron.
In a related story, The Dallas Morning News on May 15, 2023
reported, based on recently leaked classified information on the social media
chat site Discord, that Wagner Group founder Yevgeniy Prigozhin
had reached out to his contacts in the Ukrainian Intelligence Directorate,
or HUR, with a deal to share locations of Russian soldiers in exchange
for lessening the Ukrainian attacks on his fighters’ positions in and around Bakhmut
as Wagner soldiers were taking heavy losses. The exact time of the offer
was not known.
Last Leg of Fighter Jet Coalition Building Exercise Brings Zelensky to
Britain
In the latest European trip, which Ukrainian President Volodymyr
Zelensky had dubbed as the “fighter jet coalition” building trip, Ukrainian
leader on May 15, 2023 arrived at British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s
official summer house at Chequers to seek fighter planes as part of acquiring
for more lethal weapons during his five-nation (Vatican, Italy, Germany,
France and the U.K.), three-day (May 13-15, 2023) trip. However, Prime
Minister Rishi Sunak remained non-committal on fighter jets, instead focusing
on giving “long-range drones” and other missile defense shield equipment.
Ukraine’s Air Defense Foils Missile Attacks on Kyiv, Chinese Envoy to
Visit Region
A barrage of 18 missiles were launched from the sea, air and land in a
short span of time in the early morning of May 16, 2023 targeting the capital
region, but to the marvel of Kyiv residents and affirmation of growing
collaboration between the west and Kyiv as a key bulwark against Russian
aggression, Ukraine’s western-supplied missile defense shield was able to neuter
the incoming missiles. The falling debris had led to few fires on the ground,
but no casualties were reported. Six Kinzhal aero-ballistic missiles were
launched from MiG-31K, nine cruise missiles were launched from vessels in Black
Sea, and three S-400 cruise missiles were launched from the land. The barrage
of attacks came as President Volodymyr Zelensky concluded a five-nation,
three-day (May 13-15, 2023) European trip that he had dubbed as the “fighter
jet coalition” building exercise.
Meanwhile, to give traction to Chinese diplomacy aimed at finding a plan
to end the conflict, Chinese President Xi Jinping is sending a former
ambassador to Moscow, Li Hui, to Moscow and Kyiv to open discussion.
Ukraine Shots down 29 of 30 Russian Missiles
Ukraine, with the growing western help, is becoming increasingly
confident in repelling Russian missile attacks on its cities. Two days after
neutering scores of Russian missiles that had targeted the Kyiv region,
Ukrainian air missile defense system on May 18, 2023 was able to shot
down 29 of 30 missiles launched by Russia that had targeted various
cities across the nation.
Zelensky Arrives at Hiroshima to Hold Talks with G-7 Leaders
Hours after U.S. President Joe Biden approved a plan to train Ukrainian pilots in F-16, opening the possibility for future transfer of the U.S. fighter jets to Ukraine, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky arrived at Hiroshima on May 20, 2023 in a plane provided by France.
Big Symbolic Prize of the War--Bakhmut--Falls
It was not so much of a military prize, but from the vintage of making a statement of strength, Bakhmut, longest drawn and bloodiest battle epicenter of the Ukrainian war theater, held special value to both Moscow and Kyiv. On May 20, 2023, Russian defense ministry announced that the city of Artyomovsk, Soviet-era name of Bakhmut, was liberated by Wagner Group soldiers with the help of Russian army. Hours earlier, Wagner Group founder Yevgeny Prigozhin issued a video message, announcing the victory of his soldiers. Dressed in battle uniform, he was seen surrounded by Wagner fighters with the backdrop of ruined buildings. The fall of Bakhmut came on the same day as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky arrived at Hiroshima to join the G-7 summit. Ukrainian military, though, said that fighting over Bakhmut was continuing.
Russian State Media Goes Overboard with Bakhmut Victory Celebration
On May 21 and 22, 2023, whatever news channels vieweres glued their eyes on, they could witness the celebratory tone and narratives of victory of Wagner mercenaries and Russian troops in Bakhmut, longest and bloodiest grinding of the war, underlining the importance of the prized, but totally destroyed, mining city to President Vladimir Putin. However, Ukrainian Defense Minister Hanna Maliar said that Ukrainian troops were continuing to put up resistance on the southwestern fringe of the city, implying that not all of Bakhmut had fallen into Russian grips.
Ukraine-backed Mercenaries Blamed for Cross-border Attack, Fights for the Second Day
The cross-border attacks on villages in Belgorod and Bryansk regions, often blamed on pro-Ukraine gunmen, are not new. What's new this time that Russia had to fight for the second straight day on May 23, 2023. Russia's military said on May 23, 2023 that at least 70 attackers were killed in the past 24 hours. Ukraine denied that the attackers were backed Ukraine. Instead, they were disenchanted Russians who had taken up arms against Putin and Kremlin.
Belgorod Comes under Attack, Healthcare Facility in Ukraine Hit
Russia is facing attacks from an ever-assertive, western-armed Ukraine.
On May 26, 2023, a town in Russia’s Belgorod region came under
punishing attacks. It’s not clear whether Ukrainian soldiers were behind the
attacks in Graivoron, about 4 miles from the border. A Russian city near
Crimea, Krasnodar, was attacked on May 26, 2023 by a pair of
drones. As Ukraine is taking its war to the doorsteps of Russia, Moscow is
targeting civilian facilities with increasing brutalities. During the day, an
attack on a building that houses a veterinary facility and a psychology clinic in
the city of Dnipro has left the building to a state of rubble and
charred skeleton. A Russian S-300 missile hit a dam in the Karlivka
district of Donetsk.
Drone Attack on Moscow Raises Specter of Bringing the War to Doorsteps
of Russia
That Moscow is not even beyond the reach of an increasingly assertive
and empowered Ukraine has played out as a series of drone attacks have brought the
agonizing nightmare of the war to the full view of Muscovites on May 30,
2023. According to Russian authorities, five drones were destroyed, and
three others were jammed. Media reports are mum on civilian casualties. Ukraine
didn’t rule out or acknowledge On May 30, 2023, Russia continued with
the punishing attack on Kyiv for the third straight day.
Russian Attack Kills a 9-year-old Child on the International Children’s
Day
In a travesty of the International Children’s Day, Russian
short-range missiles, reported to be Iskandar missiles, rained down on Kyiv
in the early morning of June 1, 2023, killing a nine-year-old girl, her
mom and a second woman. Ukrainian First Lady Olena Zelenska panned
Russia’s “new crimes” to ruin Ukrainian children’s “childhood, summer, life".
Blinken Warns against Cease-fire as China Ramps up Effort for a Truce
Visiting the new NATO entrant Finland, U.S. Secretary of State
Anthony Blinken on June 2, 2023 dismissed any “Potemkin peace” that might
be offered by Russia, China or others to pave the way for freezing the current battlefield
occupation lines and allowing Russian troops to rest, regroup and reattack
Ukraine later. Blinken instead emphasized on a meaningful truce that would respect
the territorial integrity of Ukraine.
Collapse of a Key Dam Unleashes Disaster in Southern Ukraine
In competing streaks of allegations and counter-allegations, Russia and
Ukraine on June 6, 2023 blamed each other for the collapse of Kakhovka
Dam on the Dnieper River in southern Ukraine. The dam and the adjoining
hydroelectric power plant are under Russian control, and the reservoir
is the main source water to Europe’s largest nuclear power plant, Zaporizhzhia
Nuclear Power Plant. The collapse of Kakhovka Dam has led to flooding
in downstream towns and cities both under Russian and Ukrainian control,
including the city of Kherson.
Russia Launches Air Attack during African Leaders’ Visit
Hours after South African President Cyril Ramaphosa, leading an
African delegation, arrived at Kyiv via train in the early hours of June 16,
2023, Russia launched a ferocious air attack on Kyiv in the morning. The
air attack on Kyiv involved six Kinzhal hypersonic ballistic missiles, six
Kalibr cruise missiles and two self-destructive drones. According to the
head of Kyiv’s military administration, Serhiy Popko, all the incoming
weapons had been neutered by the missile defense system. South African
President’s Office said that because of exactly this type of unpredictable attacks,
it became so important to find a negotiated end to this conflict. President Ramaphosa
met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. African delegation’s next
stop is Moscow.
U.N. Rebukes Russia for not Giving Access to Victims of Dam Collapse
U.N. Humanitarian Coordinator for Ukraine Denise Brown said in a statement
on June 19, 2023 that her office was trying to coordinate with Kyiv and
Moscow to get access to scores of people forced from their homes because of collapse
of Kakhovka Dam on the Dnieper River. Many of these people, especially in
areas under the Russian control, are not getting food, water, medicines, and other
essential help. Dnieper River, upon which the Kakhovka Dam is
located, is the default dividing line of competing control zones by Russia and
Ukraine, and U.N. complains a less than cooperative stand by Russia in providing
[U.N.] the access to people under its control. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry
Peskov said on June 19, 2023 that it was difficult to give safety to U.N.
personnel because of continuous shelling and provocation by Ukraine.
Pentagon Announces $500 m Military Aid to Kyiv; Vatican Peace Envoy Arrives
at Moscow
The Biden administration on June 27, 2023 announced $500
million in military aid for Ukraine, including shipping HIMARS missiles,
Patriot Air Defense systems, Javelin, High-speed anti-Radiation Missiles
(HARM), demolition munitions and obstacle-clearing equipment.
As war in Ukraine gets complicated with Wagner Group’s founder, Yevgeny
Prigozhin, launching a mutiny and marching toward the Kremlin, only to
strike a deal and seek refuge in Belarus, Vatican Peace Envoy Cardinal
Matteo Zuppi arrived at Moscow on June 27, 2023. He is expected to
meet Patriarch Kirill at the Patriarchate of the Russian Orthodox Church.
Russian Air Assault Continues despite Weekend Mutiny, Poland Ramping
up Border Security
That Russia didn’t take a pause on assaulting Ukrainian cities and towns
because of a short-lived mutiny by Wagner Group became amply clear as Russia
launched an hours-long barrage of airstrikes on the city of Kramatorsk
on late June 27, 2023 and early June 28, 2023, killing 11 people—including
three teens—and wounding 61.
Meanwhile, Poland is strengthening its eastern borders with Belarus as
reports have emerged that Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko has
approved Wagner Group founder Yevgeny Prigozhin to establish a mercenary base
in the country and station about 8,000 fighters there.
Russia Deters Drone Attacks on Moscow
In the latest alarming trend of invading drones to reach the doorsteps
of Russian capital with high frequency, five drones were on their way to Moscow
on July 4, 2023. Russian Defense Ministry said that four of the
five drones were downed, and the fifth was electronically jammed. The incident
on July 4, 2023 led to restriction of flight operation at one of the
three international airports in Moscow, Vnukovo International Airport. Ukraine
didn’t acknowledge whether it was behind the drones. Moscow Mayor Sergei
Sobyanin said that there was no casualty, or damage.
Worst Strike on Lviv Kills Half a Dozen
In the worst barrage of missile strikes on the western gateway city of Lviv,
far from the battlefront in the south and the east, at least six people were
killed and more than 30 injured on July 6, 2023. Out of 10 Kalibr
missiles launched by Russia from the Black Sea, seven had been intercepted.
Three hit the city of Lviv and surrounding region, leaving a trail of
devastation. A missile struck an apartment building, killing six, including a
95-year-old woman who had survived World War II. Lviv Provincial Governor Maksym
Kozytskyi retorted that the woman could survive World War II, but not
Russia’s full-scale invasion.
U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine Bridget Brink denounced the “vicious”
Russian attack on Lviv. Lviv Mayor Andriy Sadovyi characterized the
attack as the largest since the beginning of the Russian invasion on February
24, 2022. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said that there
would be a “tangible” response as he set out for a trip to Bulgaria.
U.S. Decision to Give Ukraine Cluster Munitions Invites Mixed Reactions
The U.S. decision on July 7, 2023 to provide Cluster munitions
as part of $800 million military aid package to Ukraine is controversial,
to say the least. There are NATO nations which have banned use, production, and
transference of Cluster munitions as more than 120 nations have signed the 2008
Convention on Cluster Munitions. However, Russia, U.S. and Ukraine are
not signatories to the Convention. The package, in addition to including the
controversial cluster munitions, includes Bradley and Stryker armored vehicles
as well as an array of ammunition, including rounds for Howitzers and HIMARS. President
Joe Biden on July 7, 2023 defended giving Cluster munitions to Ukraine. White
House National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said that the “dud rate”,
or failure-to-explode rate, is low for the U.S. supplied Cluster munitions.
Some reports referred to an average “dud rate” of 2.65% for the U.S.-supplied
Cluster munitions. Many Democrats criticized the Biden administration’s
decision to give Cluster munitions to Ukraine, while some Republican lawmakers
backed it.
Zelensky Shown Marking 500th Day of the War in Snake Island
July 8, 2023 marked the 500th day of the Ukrainian War that had
transformed and transcended the entire nation into an epicenter of human
dignity and national sovereignty in the most vivid manner. Ukrainian Press
Office released a picture on July 8, 2023, showing that President
Volodymyr Zelensky placing flowers and candles at a memorial in the Snake
Island. Snake Island holds a special place in the Ukrainian
resistance movement as Russia has seized the strategic island in the first
hours of the war’s beginning and tried to subjugate the Ukrainian soldiers to
submission, only to be repelled, but eventually the strategic island fell into
the occupation under Russia. Russia’s original plan was to leverage Snake
Island as a launching pad to attack Odessa and surrounding areas in the south.
A strong, concerted push by Ukrainian army forced Russia to withdraw from the
Snake Island on June 30, 2022.
However, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s trip to the Snake
Island might not happened on the 500th day of the war
itself as he was flying back from Turkey with three commanders from the Azovstal
Iron and Steel Works plant resistance. They had been seized by Russia, but
later sent them in exile to Turkey as part of an agreement. Those commanders
are supposed to stay back in Tukey, as per the agreement, until the war’s end.
Referring to the three top commanders’ return to Ukraine with Zelensky, Kremlin
spokesman Dmitry Peshkov said on July 8, 2023 that it was a “violation
of the existing agreements".
Putin Warns on Cluster Munition
As the U.S. confirmed arrival of cluster munition at Ukraine, Russian
President Vladimir Putin said on July 16, 2023 in an interview on the Rossiya
TV that Moscow had stockpiles of cluster munition, but never used them in
Ukraine, contrary to what experts did believe. However, that can change now,
with Ukraine now receiving cluster munition from the U.S., according to Putin.
A Pair of Maritime Drones Attack, Damage a Key Bridge
A pair of maritime drones on July 17, 2023 damaged parts of Kerch
Bridge, a key link between Crimea and mainland Russia. This marks the
second time in a year that the lifeblood of the direct communication between
mainland Russia and Crimea has been attacked second time in a year. The attack
preceded Russia’s decision hours later to suspend its participation in a
landmark grain shipment program, Black Sea Grain Initiative, agreed at
the behest of Turkey and the U.N. Russia’s National Anti-Terrorist Committee
blamed Ukraine for the maritime drone attack. Kyiv is yet to take
responsibility for July 17, 2023, drone attack on the Kerch Bridge.
In the October 2022 attack on the same bridge, Kyiv initially took no responsibility,
but Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar acknowledged earlier
this month that the attack was launched to degrade and destroy Russian logistics.
Russia’s Barrage of Missile, Drone Strikes Pulverize Odessa, Mykolaiv
A day after Kerch Bridge had been damaged by a pair of maritime
drones, Russia launched attacks on Odessa and Mykolaiv on July 18, 2023.
First, it sent 25 drones to engage and deplete the power of the Ukrainian defense
shield, and followed up with six Kalibr Cruise missiles, according to the
Ukrainian Military’s Southern Command. All the cruise missiles and
drones were intercepted, according to the Command communique.
Russia Continues Attack on Odessa for Second Day in a Row
Russia continued barrage of attacks for the second day on the southern
port city of Odesa on July 19, 2023 and expanded to other areas of the
nation. Odesa regional Governor Oleh Kiper said that Russia had targeted
key infrastructure and grain silos using drones and missiles—belonging to Kh-22
and Oniks class. Meanwhile, Russia-backed Crimean authorities evacuated
about 2,200 people from four villages adjacent to a military
installation where a fire had erupted, two days after a pair of maritime drones
damaged parts of Kerch Bridge.
Russia Continues Attack on Odessa, Mykolaiv
Russia continued its barrage of drone and missile attacks on the port
city of Odessa and adjoining port city of Mykolaiv. The July 20, 2023, marked
the third successive day that the port city had been pulverized since Russia
suspended a landmark grain deal on July 17, 2023. Parts of downtown Odessa were
designated as a World Heritage Site by UNESCO. During that designation
announcement in January 2023, UNESCO Director-General Audrey Azoulay said that
the legendary port had left its mark in “cinema, literature, and the arts".
Russian Missile Damages Historic Church; UNESCO Blasts Russian
Indiscriminate Attack
Russia on July 23, 2023 continued barrage of attacks on the
southern port city of Odessa, including several areas hosting the UNESCO
World Heritage Sites, despite UNESCO’s call to spare those areas. In the
early morning attack, a missile hit the Transfiguration Cathedral,
significantly damaging the cathedral. Referring to the attack on the cathedral,
UNESCO Secretary-General Audrey Azoulay said that “this outrageous
destruction marks an escalation".
Drone Attacks on Moscow, Crimea amidst Continuing Russian Airstrikes on
Southern Ukraine
Russia blamed Ukraine on July 24, 2023 for early morning drone
strikes on two residential buildings in Moscow and a drone attack on Crimea. Moscow
Mayor Sergei Sobyanin said that there were no casualties in the attack on
Moscow. Meanwhile, Russia continued striking port infrastructure in southern
Ukraine, including an attack on a granary on Danube River.
Russia Blames Ukraine for a Pair of Rocket Attacks
Russia on July 28, 2023 downed two missiles—one over the city Taganrog
in Rostov region and another near the city of Azov in Rostov region—in
the southwest close to Ukraine’s borders. The debris in Taganrog injured dozens
of people. The missile downed near the city of Azov fell in an uninhabited
area. A drone destined for Moscow was also downed, marking the thirst such
attack, or attempted attack, on Moscow in the past month.
Meanwhile, President Volodymyr Zelensky marked the founding day of
Ukraine with speech laced with patriotism and handing out passports to young
Ukrainians.
Poland Alarmed by Wagner Soldiers near Border, Ukraine to Mark Christmas
on Dec 25
Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki on July 29, 2023 called the recent deployment
of about 100 Wagner mercenaries along with Belarusian soldiers near the strategic
Polish border stretch of Suwalki Gap as another example of “hybrid
attack on Polish territory”. Previously, Polish government officials called
Russian and Belarusian drive to send migrants to Europe through
Polish-Belarusian border as a “hybrid attack”. In response, Poland had built
barrier along Poland-Belarus border.
In a political move to assert Ukrainian identity, President Volodymyr
Zelensky on July 29, 2023 signed a law that would change the Christmas from
January 7 to December 25, Day of Ukrainian Statehood from July 28 to July 15,
and Day of Defenders of Ukraine from October 14 to October 1. Russian Orthodox
Church follows the Julian Calendar, and hence, the Orthodox Christmas is
January 7, while Catholic Church has been following the more precise Gregorian
Calendar.
Drone Attack Damage Buildings in Moscow, Russia Attacks President’s Hometown
A drone attack on July 30, 2023 damaged two buildings in Moscow, signifying
once unthinkable phenomenon of the Russian capital now being a frequent target
of drone attacks. Although Ukraine didn’t acknowledge the attack on Moscow
buildings, Ukrainian president’s nighttime video was an enough pointer to who
was behind the attack. According to the July 30, 2023, nightly video
message to the nation, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky justified
the attacks within Russian territory, saying that “this is an inevitable, natural
and absolutely fair process".
That the comment infuriated the Russian leadership to the core was an
understatement as Moscow carried out ballistic missile attacks on Zelensky’s
hometown of Kryvyi Rih on July 31, 2023 morning. An attack on an
apartment complex led to a fire between the 4th and 9th
floors, and a second attack damaged a university building in Kryvyi Rih.
The dual attack on the president’s hometown killed at least six people.
Meanwhile, a Ukrainian artillery strike on the regional capital under Russian
occupied areas in Donetsk killed two people and wounded six others, according
to Russia-installed regional governor, Denis Pushilin.
Russia Blames Kyiv for the Second Drone Attack in as many Days
48 hours after the last drone attack on targets in Moscow, three drones
were en route to Moscow on August 1, 2023 when Russian military shot
down two drones and jammed the third one, crashing it into a building that had
been on July 30, 2023. The building houses key government agencies and is
barely 4.5 miles from the Kremlin. Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin has identified
the building hit by the jammed drone on August 1, 2023 as IQ-Quarter
that hosts headquarters of the ministries of economic development, digital
development and communication, and industry and trade, respectively.
Marine Drone Attacks on Russia Port, Warship Take the Battle to Russia’s
Front Yard
Sea drones struck the Russian Black Sea port of Novorossiysk,
about 60 miles east of Crimea, and a Russian landing vessel, Olenegorsky
Gornyak, on August 4, 2023, bringing the stinging bite of war to
Russia’s doorsteps. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said that “what
you bring to the world, you end up with the same".
Russia Attacks Ukraine with Vengeance
As promised that Kremlin would punish Ukraine for a sea drone attack near
Crimea on August 4, 2023 on a Russian tanker that was transporting fuel for
the Russian troops, Russia on August 6, 2023 launched more than 70 missiles
and drones from aircraft in the Caspian Sea, targeting various parts of Ukraine,
that killed six people and wounded dozens.
Ukraine Accuses Kremlin of “Double Tap” Attack on Donetsk City
Ukrainian authorities said on August 8, 2023 that Russian waves
of drone and missile strikes a day before included so-called “double tap”
attack on the Donetsk city of Pokrovsk, referring to the military jargon
of back-to-back assaults with the second one targeting the rescue crew. On August
7, 2023, Iskander missiles were used by Russia to strike an
apartment complex in the Donetsk city of Pokrovsk, and followed up with
a second attack when rescue personnel were trying to retrieve wounded from
underneath the rubble, according to pro-Kyiv Donetsk Governor Pavlo
Kyrylenko. The “double tap” attack on Pokrovsk killed nine people
and wounded 80 others.
Ukraine, Russia Continue Aerial Attacks
A Russian missile hit an apartment complex on August 11, 2023 in
the western region of Ivano-Frankivsk region. A 2-year-old boy was
killed. Separately, a drone—suspected to be launched by Ukraine—reached at the
doorstep of Russian capital, marking the third consecutive day of a drone kissing
the Russian capital. During the day, the drone plunged onto Karamyshevskaya
Embankment, about 3 miles west of Moscow. Drones arriving near Moscow
raised alarm and forced authorities to halt flights for the third successive
day at Moscow’s Vnukovo Airport. On August 11, 2023, flight
operation was disrupted, and later resumed, at Moscow’s Vnukovo and Kaluga
Airports.
On August 11, 2023, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky fired the
heads of local recruitment offices on corruption charges.
20 Drones En Route to Crimea Neutered
Russian Defense Ministry on August 12, 2023 claimed in a post on
the Telegram channel that Russia had shot down 14 of 20 drones and
electronically jammed 6 additional drones. All 20 drones were on their way to
strike Russia-annexed Crimea Peninsula. Crimean Governor Sergei Aksyonov
added that in addition to mitigating the threat from 20 drones, Russian
defense shield had shot down two incoming Ukrainian missiles. Although Ukraine
didn’t claim responsibility for attempted drone or missile attacks, it was well
understood that those were the work of Ukrainian security forces.
Russian Shelling Kills 7 as Ukraine Makes Incremental Counteroffensive Progress
Ukraine is making incremental progress on the battlefield after
launching the much-waited, over-hyped counteroffensive in early June 2023.
On August 13, 2023, Ukrainian General Staff claimed “partial
success” around Robotyne area in Zaporizhzhia region. Separately,
Russian shelling in Kherson region on August 13, 2023 killed 7
people, including a family of four in the village of Shiroka Balka on
the Dnieper River bank. An additional three people were killed in a
neighboring village. Kherson Regional Governor Oleksandr Prokudin said on
August 13, 2023 that three people were wounded in a separate attack a day earlier.
Attacks on Odessa Foiled; U.S. Ambassador Visits Jailed Journalist Third
Time
Ukraine on August 14, 2023 claimed that its air defense system
neutered three waves of Kalibre missile and Shaheed drone attacks
on the Black Sea port city of Odessa overnight. However, falling debris
from the sky had charred a supermarket store and a student dormitory, according
to Odessa regional Governor Oleh Kiper. Meanwhile, facing complaint that
Ukrainian counteroffensive, launched in early June 2023, is going very
slowly, Presidential Adviser Mykhailo Podolyak countered on August
14, 2023 that they didn’t need be conspicuous by “large-scale battles”,
instead of focusing on piecemeal operation.
U.S. Blesses Dutch, Danish F-16 Transfer to Ukraine, Russian Missile
Strikes Kill 7
On August 18, 2023, the U.S. approved the Dutch and Danish transfer
of F-16 planes to Ukraine, improving the odds of Kyiv’s air power in the long
run, but no significant impact on the short-run outcome of Ukraine’s counter-offensive
launched in early June 2023.
On August 19, 2023, Russian missiles pummeled the northern
Ukrainian city of Chernihiv, damaging a theater at the center of the
city, apartments, and buildings. At least seven people were killed and more
than 125 people wounded. As the missiles rained down on the city of Chernihiv,
Ukrainian President Volodymir Zelensky arrived at Sweden in an unannounced
visit. He requested the Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson to
provide his nation with CV90 Infantry vehicles and related training as
well as Gripen fighter aircraft.
Ukrainian Media Reports Recent Attacks on Russian Airbase as Handiwork
of Saboteurs
Ukrainska Pravda and Ukraine’s NV news outlet reported on August 22, 2023
that Kyiv’s saboteurs had coordinated with Ukrainian Intelligence to carry out
attacks on two airbases deep inside Russia. On August 19, 2023, a drone
strike on Soltsy Air Base in Novgorod region damaged one aircraft. Two
days later, August 21, 2023, another drone strike on Shaikovka Air
Base in the southwestern Kaluga region damaged a second aircraft.
Russia, Ukraine Trade Drone Attacks; Russian Air Force Chief Replaced
Russia and Ukraine continued with their drone strikes on August 23,
2023. Russian drones zeroed in on grain silos in and around Odessa, destroying
14,300 tons of grains, according to a Facebook post by Ukrainian
Infrastructure Minister Oleksandr Kubrakov. This month alone, more than 300,000
tons of grains have been destroyed in the region by the Russian attacks. Odessa
Regional Military Administration Head Oleh Kiper said that in the overnight
drone attack, a large granary caught fire and it was ablaze for hours.
Meanwhile, Ukraine’s intelligence agency, GUR, claimed that it had
carried out a drone attack on S-400 surface-to-air missile defense
system stationed in Crimea and destroyed it. Russian authorities also claimed
that they had destroyed the incoming drones to Moscow, an almost regular
occurrence these days.
On August 23, 2023, Russian news agency RIA Novosti reported
that one of the key architects of Ukraine invasion, Gen. Sergei Surovikin,
known for his proximity to Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin, was replaced
by Col. Gen. Viktor Afzalov as the Air Force Chief of Staff.
Ukraine’s Second Independence Day in the Midst of War Time Marked
Ukraine on August 24, 2023 marked its Independence Day amidst a
grinding counteroffensive and Russian barrage of airstrikes and drone attacks
targeting civilian infrastructure and granaries. During the day, Ukrainian
Defense Ministry released more than 20 wry video clips, under the tagline of
UkraineSaysThankYou, addressing the western nations for their supply of
weapons. Ukrainian leaders often bristled at the slow pace of weapons supply
and the underlying decision-making process. Last month, British Defense
Minister Ben Wallace suggested that Kyiv, instead, should thank its western
benefactors and not treat the bond with West as Amazon’s delivery service. Many
observers do believe that the release of the video clips is a riposte to
Wallace’s suggestions.
Kerch Bridge Closed after Effort to Attack by Naval Drones
Russian Defense Ministry said on September 2, 2023 that it had
destroyed three marine drones—one in the night of September 1, 2023 and a pair of
drones on September 2, 2023—which had targeted a key bridge of the Strait of
Kerch connecting the mainland Russia with Crimea. The bridge was subsequently
closed to traffic. The attempted attack marked the third time that Russia had
to close the Kerch Bridge in a year.
************************* DEFENSE PROCUREMENT SCANDAL ************************
Ukrainian Defense Minister to be Replaced
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said on September 3, 2023 that the
defense minister, Oleksii Reznikov, would be replaced this week by a Crimean
Tatar lawmaker, Rustern Umerov amidst Kyiv’s counteroffensive launched
in early June 2023 making very moderate headway.
$40 million in Defense Procurement Fraud Reported
Security Service of Ukraine, or SBU, on January 28, 2024 reported about $40
million in fraud related to the weapons procurement process. Although it
was the state money that had been stolen, it would raise eyebrows in western
capitals as the West was facing significant domestic resistance to any
additional aid package to Ukraine. Former Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov was
forced to resign on September 4, 2023 stemming from the procurement
scandal. SBU named five Defense Department officials and executives of an arms
procurement firm, Lviv Arsenal, as prime accused who had swindled the
Ukrainian armed forces out of $40 million. SBU recovered the money subsequently.
************************* DEFENSE PROCUREMENT SCANDAL ************************
At least 16 People Killed in Russian Shelling
In a gruesome assault on September 6, 2023, Russia shelled an eastern
town in Ukraine killing at least 16 people. The attack on Kostiantynivka occurred
as U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken arrived at Ukraine, pledging
$1 billion aid to Kyiv.
Successive Strikes Damage Key Russian Base
Ukraine carried out two strikes on Russian Black Sea Fleet
headquarters at Sevastopol in Crimea on September 22, 2023 and
September 23, 2023 that had taken a toll on Russian personnel and infrastructure.
Although there are contrasting messages on the scale of loss from the two
sides, the undeniable fact is the ease with which Ukrainian missile strikes on
both these days have caused significant damage and degraded the personnel morale.
Speaking on the Voice of America on September 23, 2023, Ukraine’s
intelligence chief, Kyrylo Budanov, said that at least nine people were killed,
and 16 others were injured in the Ukrainian missile attack on the Black Sea
Fleet headquarters a day earlier. According to Budanov, Alexander Romanchuk,
a Russian general commanding the southeastern front, was seriously injured. Ukrainian
military gave more details about September 22, 2023, attack that involved
a total of dozen strikes, targeting personnel, military equipment and weapons.
On September 23, 2023, Ukraine carried out another missile strike
on the Black Sea Fleet headquarters. Regional Governor Mikhail
Razvozhayev said that ferry services were disrupted and air raid siren went
off for an hour.
Strain Surfaces in Iron-clad Unity of West for Ukraine
That the very unity that is a huge investment for Ukraine’s military
robustness against Russia is coming under question as key national elections
are being held in Poland, Slovakia, and other nations, according to The
Dallas Morning News’ September 24, 2023, edition. After Slovakia,
Poland and Hungary banned Ukrainian grain imports as their leaders had faced
calls from their influential farm groups to support their own farmers instead
of Ukraine’s, Kyiv filed complaint against these three nations to WTO. That
didn’t go well with Slovakian, Polish, and Hungarian leaders. Ukraine is also
facing a skeptical Republican-dominated House of Representatives over military,
financial and other aids.
Ukrainian Missile Strikes Kill 34, including Black Sea Fleet Head
Ukraine shed more light on the September 22, 2023, attack on
Russia’s Black Sea Fleet headquarters at Sevastopol. According to
Ukrainian Special Operations Forces, 34 Russian sailors and personnel
were killed in the September 22, 2023, attack that involved 12 strikes and 105
people were wounded. According to Special Operations Forces’ message on
their Telegram messaging app, among the killed was Black Sea Fleet head
Admiral Viktor Sokolov.
Solokov Seen Alive; Russia Attacks Grain Silos, Export Points Along
Danube
A day after Ukraine reported that the commander of the Russian Black
Sea Naval Fleet had been killed in airstrike on its headquarters in Crimea,
Russian TV showed on September 26, 2023 a lively Viktor Sokolov
participating a virtual meeting of Russia’s top military brass.
A day after targeting Odessa region with ferocious missile attacks that
had killed two people, Russia carried out another set of attacks on September
26, 2023 against grain silos, granaries and grain depots along the Danube
River. This has become a regular campaign for Russia to target the grain
export facilities in Odessa along the Danube River—main grain export conduit
since the collapse of the Black Sea Grain Initiative—after Moscow
withdrew from the deal. The overnight aerial attack on September 26, 2023
targeted the grain sites in Izmail and surrounding small towns and
cities of the Odessa region.
Russia Accuses West of Planning and Helping Attack on Black Sea Fleet
Headquarters
Russian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Maria Zakharova said on September
27, 2023 that the September 22, 2023, attack carried out by Ukraine
on the Black Sea Fleet headquarters at Sevastopol would not have been possible
without “Western intelligence means, NATO satellite assets and reconnaissance
planes” and U.S. “coordination” with Ukraine.
EU Foreign Policy Chief’s Unannounced Visit Marks Effort to Defuse
Tension
As evidenced recently by a slight increase in tension between Ukraine
and its western benefactors and compounded by the victory of Robert Fico
in Slovakian parliamentary election, EU leadership is intent to showcase to the
world that the relations between the western alliance and Slovakia remains
intact. EU foreign policy chief Joseph Borrell on October 2, 2023
led a delegation to pay an unannounced visit to Ukraine.
Russian Missile Kills more than 50 in Ukraine’s Northeast
In one of the deadliest attacks, a Russian Iskander missile on October
5, 2023 slammed a café at the village of Hroza in Kharkiv province,
killing 51 people. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who was in
Spain to attend a summit of about 50 leaders to coalesce support around Kyiv,
denounced the “demonstrably brutal Russian crime".
Ukraine Seeks More Military Aid as Attention Diverted to Middle East
In personally appearing at the Ukraine Defense Contact Group meeting
at the NATO headquarters in Brussels, Ukrainian President Volodymyr
Zelensky on October 11, 2023 reminded the defense leaders from about 50
nations that the military aid to Kyiv was an urgent need despite the crisis
that had erupted after Hamas launched one of the most ferocious attacks on
Israel. Zelensky asked for more military aid.
Ukraine Reports Attack with U.S.-supplied ATACMS Missile for the First
Time
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on October 17, 2023 bragged on Telegram
channel that Kyiv had used for the first time the long-range ATACMS (Army Tactical Missile System) missiles, manufactured in and received from the U.S., against Russian military
targets in a pair of occupied Ukrainian territories—Berdyansk and Luhansk.
*********************** RUSSIAN-AMERICAN JOURNALIST DETAINED **********************
Second Western Journalist Arrested
A Russian-American correspondent was arrested by Russian authorities in
espionage charges, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty reported on October 19,
2023. Alsu Kurmasheva is the editor of the RFE/RL’s Tatar-Bashkir
service. Alsu Kurmasheva is the second U.S.-based journalist
detained by Russian authorities after the arrest of The Wall Street Journal
reporter Evan Gershkovich.
*********************** RUSSIAN-AMERICAN JOURNALIST DETAINED **********************
Russian Air Assault Targets Kherson
On October 30, 2023, Kherson’s regional governor, Oleksandr Prokudin,
said that it was a “terrifying night” (October 29-30 night) for Kherson
residents as Russia continued its punishing airstrikes in the east and south. A
total of three people were killed in the Russian attack in the past 24 hours,
according to President Volodymyr Zelensky.
U.N. Asks to Probe Missile Strike that Killed 59
The U.N. Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine issued a
report on October 31, 2023, asking Russia to acknowledge its
responsibility for an Iskander missile strike on October 5, 2023 on a café
in the village of Hroza that had killed 59 people—36 women, 22 men
and an 8-year-old boy—who were attending a wake for a soldier killed fighting
against Russia, conduct an appropriate probe and make reparation to victims. In
a statement, Danielle Bell, head of UNHRM Mission in Ukraine, lamented
that the Hroza deaths showed the human toll of the Ukraine War.
Russian Airstrikes Hit 10 Ukrainian Regions
As winter is about to set in, like last year, Russia is repeating the
same pattern of targeting critical civilian infrastructure to meet out
punishment and pain to millions of civilians. Overnight Russian airstrikes
targeted 10 of the nation’s 24 regions. Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr
Zelensky, said on November 3, 2023 that “as winter approaches, Russian
terrorists will attempt to cause harm”, alluding to the non-stop barrage of
missile and drone attacks on 10 regions, with the most intensified attack
launched on Kherson. Ukraine’s Air Force claimed that it destroyed 24
of 38 Shaheed drones and one Kh-59 cruise missile.
Russian Ship Struck by Ukrainian Missile
Late November 4, 2023, Ukraine again exposed the vulnerability in
Russian defense system and infrastructure in Crimea. Russian Defense Ministry
said on late November 4, 2023 that Ukraine fired 15 cruise missiles at
the Zaliv shipyard in the city of Kerch, a city in the east of Crimea. Russian
defense shield was able to neuter 13 missiles. However, two struck the Zaliv
shipyard, with one of them hitting a vessel docked there.
Zelensky Rules out Presidential Poll amid War
As the current term of President Volodymyr Zelensky is coming to
an end in the Spring of 2024, rumors and speculations—party fueled reportedly
by Russian propaganda—are mounting whether a new presidential election is round
the corner despite the martial law in place since the beginning of the war in
February 2022 that has led to suspension of democratic processes, including elections.
President Volodymyr Zelensky clarified his position on this issue on November
7, 2023, saying that now was the time to focus on winning the war against
Russia and stop the “waves of all the politically divisive things”. Zelensky’s November
7, 2023, comment came after multiple assessments from various quarters,
including Ukraine’s western allies, that the war had reached a standstill. This
assessment of a grinding and standstill war was given by Zelensky’s own military
chief of staff, Gen. Valerii Zaluzhnyi, an assessment that the president
had rejected last week.
Britain’s New Top Diplomat Visits Odessa
Britain’s new foreign minister, David Cameron, who got the top
diplomatic post on November 13, 2023, paid his first foreign visit to
Ukraine. He met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky at Odessa on
November 16, 2023 and pledged to provide economic, political, diplomatic,
and most importantly, the military support to make Ukraine the “victorious".
Ukrainian Forces Establish Footholds on the Eastern Side of a Key River
Ukraine’s Marine Infantry Command claimed on November 17, 2023
that the Ukrainian soldiers had used inflatables to cross the Dnieper River
in Kherson and established a foothold on the eastern side of the wide
river. This is a small, but a strategic, battlefield victory for Ukraine as the
soldiers’ positioning on the eastern side would deter Russian forces from launching
artillery fire on the western side of the river, which Russian army had
evacuated from in November 2022.
U.S. Defense Chief Makes Surprise Visit to Kyiv, Announces $100 million
Military Aid
U.S. Defense Secretary Llyod Austin on November 20, 2023 was in Kyiv on an
unannounced visit and met with President Volodymyr Zelensky, Defense
Minister Rustem Umerov and military Chief of Staff Gen. Valerii Zaluzhnyi.
Austin took train from Poland to reach Kyiv. In Kyiv, Secretary Llyod Austin
said that the U.S. had Ukraine’s back amidst a war fatigue, a divided western
coalition and current pivot shifted to Middle East.
He announced $100 million in the U.S. military aid, including
munition and other arms from the current Pentagon inventory as well as one HIMARS,
or High Mobility Artillery Rocket System. U.S. has so far sent $44
billion in military aid to Kyiv and European nations added an additional $35
billion in military aid.
Waves of Drones Target Crimea, Russia Intensifies Attack on a Key
Eastern City
Ukraine launched the most intensified drone attack on the Russia-annexed
region of Crimea on November 24, 2023. The governor of Russia-controlled
parts of Kherson region, Vladimir Saldo, said that the drone attack was
carried out early in the morning and most of the drones were destroyed. Russian
Defense Ministry said on November 24, 2023 that 13 drones were shot down in
Crimea and an additional three were shot down in the Russian airspace
of Volgograd.
During the day, Russia intensified its military assault on the Eastern
Ukrainian city of Avdiivka, which Russian forces were trying to capture
since October 10, 2023, reminiscing the ferocious battle that had been
waged prior to Russia’s eventual win over Bakhmut.
Russia Launches Most Intense Drone Attack on Ukraine
Russia on November 25, 2023 launched the most intense
drone attack on Ukraine, primarily targeting the capital Kyiv region. The waves
of drone attack began at 4AM local time and lasted for about six hours. At
least 75 Iranian-made Shaheed drones were used in the Russia-launched attack. Ukrainian
Air Force Commander Mykola Oleshchuk said on Telegram that “Kyiv was the
main target”. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said that most of
the drones were destroyed by the country’s air defense system, but not all of
them.
U.S. Files War Crimes Charges against Four Russians
The U.S. DOJ on December 6, 2023 filed five-count war crimes
charges against four Russian military service members, or combatants, accusing
them of torturing an American detained by Russian army in 2022 at a Ukrainian
village. The case, filed in the Eastern District of Virginia, is the
first of a kind and unique in nature. The American involved was later united
with his Ukrainian wife after 10-day detention.
Zelensky’s Two-day Washington Visit Fails to Sway Republicans
As President Joe Biden’s $110 billion supplemental package
request for aid to Ukraine and Israel as well as other key priorities is stuck
in limbo in Congress, the White House is sending ominous message to lawmakers
that the funding will run out of money after the yearend. President Biden
rebuked the Republicans for planning to give Putin a Christmas gift of
non-passage of Ukrainian aid. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky made a
two-day [December 11-12, 2023] trip to Washington to meet with lawmakers and
press for more U.S. aid. U.S. so far provided $111 billion in aid to Ukraine.
It doesn’t seem that Zelensky has been able to change any Republican lawmaker’s
heart.
Russia, Ukraine Trade Dozens of Drones a Day after EU Okays Ukraine
Accession Talks
A day after Kyiv received a mixed bag of results from the EU leadership
in Brussels as Hungary didn’t object the preliminary steps toward accession
into the 27-nation bloc, but successfully vetoed a four-year, $54.5 billion
aid package, Ukraine on December 16, 2023 said that it had withstood an overnight
assault of at least 31 drones by Russia targeting 11 regions. Ukraine’s air
defense system neutered 30 drones, Ukraine claimed. Meanwhile, Russia claimed
that its anti-aircraft unit had destroyed 32 drones over Crimea and an
additional six drones were destroyed in Russia’s Kursk region.
Meanwhile, governors of competing regions of Kherson—Vladimir Saldo
of Russia-occupied region and Governor Oleksandr Prokudin of Ukraine-controlled
region—gave contrasting accounts of how enemy attacks were driving their
people’s lives to the brink.
On the $54.5 billion aid package that Hungary vetoed a day
earlier, EU leaders are assuring Kyiv that they would work closely with Orban
administration to change their stance and the time has not run out yet on the
aid package.
Moscow, Kyiv Trade Drones Second Day in a Row
Ukraine and Russia launched drone attacks and counterattacks on each
other overnight for the second time in as many days, according to media
reports. Russian Defense Ministry said on December 17, 2023 in a Telegram
post that at least three dozen Ukrainian drones were destroyed over three
Russian regions overnight. A Russian Telegram channel attributed to the critics
of Kremlin said on December 17, 2023 that Ukrainian drones targeted a
key airbase that’s host to Russia’s 559th Aviation Regiment.
The airbase is in the city of Morozovsk, Rostov province. Rostov
Governor Vasily Golubev reported that “mass drone strikes” had struck
Morozovsk and another city in the west.
Ukrainian air defense destroyed 20 Shaheed drones overnight too.
Russian Aerial Attack Targets Energy Infrastructure, Train Station
A day after Ukrainian warplanes struck a vessel from Russia’s Black
Sea Fleet moored at a Crimean port, Ukraine said on December 27, 2023
that Russia launched about 50 drones and artillery to target the country’s
energy infrastructure and a Kherson railway station.
Largest Barrage of Missile Attacks to Date Kills more than 30
Russia launched its largest barrage of missile attacks on various
Ukrainian regions, killing more than 30 people and wounding at least 140,
Ukraine said on December 29, 2023. Additional Dozens, if not hundreds, are
feared buried under the rubble. In the 18-hour overnight streak of attacks,
Russia launched 122 ballistic and cruise missiles and dozens of Shaheed
drones, striking apartments, houses, and other civilian targets. According to Ukrainian
Chief of Staff Valerii Zaluzhnyi, country’s air defense system was able to neuter
most of the missiles and drones, but few evaded the air defense system and
inflicted significant damages on civilian infrastructure. The barrage of air
attacks easily topped the previous record of 96 missile strikes in November
2022 and this year’s record 81 missile strikes on March 9, 2023.
Shelling of Russian City Kills 14
That it’s not only Russia who can create havoc in Ukraine and the
reverse is also possible plays out by itself on December 30, 2023 as
Russian Defense Ministry alleged that Ukrainian shelling on the city center of Belgorod,
about 25 miles north of Ukrainian border, killed 14 people and
injured 108 others. Although Kyiv didn’t acknowledge the attack, it didn’t
go unnoticed that the shelling on Belgorod happened barely a day after
the largest barrage of missile strikes killed 39 people in Ukraine. Belgorod
area’s regional governor, Vyacheslav Gladkov, said that the attack this
time was the worst this border city had faced since February 24, 2022,
beginning of Russia-Ukraine war. Russian Defense Ministry even identified the weapons
used in the Belgorod attack. It said that Czech-made Vampire rockets
were used.
Russia Strikes Ukraine in Response to Belgorod Attack
Russia launched waves of drone strikes, apparently to take revenge to aerial
strikes a day ago on Belgorod that had killed more than two dozen people
and wounded 108 people, overnight on Kharkiv and other regions, Ukraine
said on December 31, 2023. Ukrainian Air Force said on December
31, 2023 that it had destroyed 21 of 49 drones launched by Russia
overnight. Kherson Governor Oleh Syniehubov said that the drone attack
on Kharkiv wounded 28 people, and had targeted a hotel, a kindergarten school,
apartments, and administrative buildings. However, Russian Defense Ministry
said that the Kharkiv Palace Hotel had hosted Ukraine Intelligence
Directorate and Ukrainian Armed Forces. Ukrainian Interior Minister Ihor
Klymenko denied the allegation that the Kharkiv Palace Hotel had
hosted any military infrastructure, and instead, accused Kremlin of injuring a
British journalist who was staying at the hotel. There was a German TV crew
member too at the hotel. German public broadcaster ZDF Editor-in-Chief
Bettina Schausten said that it was another Russian attack on the free press.
Russia Pulverizes Ukraine with 90 Drones, Putin Happy with Military
Progress
As Ukraine steps into the New Year, Russia has attacked Kherson,
Kharkiv, Sumy, Lviv and other cities with about 90 Shaheed drones. On January
1, 2023, Russian President Vladimir Putin visited a military hospital. During
his visit to the military hospital, Putin said that Russia’s military was
making progress as expected.
Russia Launches Maximum Number of Kinzhal Missiles
Russia in early hours of January 2, 2024 launched about 100
missiles, targeting Kyiv and Kharkiv regions. Out of 100 missiles, at least 10
were identified as potent Kh-47M2 Kinzhal missiles with speed 10 times
that of sound, marking the highest number of air-launched ballistic missiles
since the war had erupted on February 24, 2022. Thanks to the West-supplied NASAMS
and Patriot missile defense shields all 10 Kinzhal and several
dozens of other missiles were destroyed, saving thousands of lives.
Largest Prisoner Swap at the Behest of UAE
UAE played the much-desired constructive role in securing the largest
POW release event in the Russia-Ukraine war. As part of January 3, 2024, swap—according to Ukraine’s
human rights ombudsman Dmytro Lubinets, it’s the 49th prisoner
swap and the largest one to date—230 Ukrainian prisoners returned home in
exchange for 248 Russian prisoners released by Kyiv.
Russian Missile Strike Kills 11
Russia and Ukraine are playing the game of brinkmanship by engaging in
indiscriminate drone and missile strikes, with Russia targeting eastern and
southern regions and Ukraine targeting Crimea and Belgorod, respectively. On January
6, 2024, an S-300 missile attack on the Ukrainian-controlled Donetsk
town of Pokrovsk as well as another attack on a neighboring village killed
11 people and wounded 10 people. Ukrainian-held Donetsk’s regional
governor, Vadim Filashkin, said on January 6, 2024 that Russia
was trying to bring down the entire Donetsk region by inflicting pain to
civilians. The Pokrovsk attack came a day after the U.S. alleged that Russia
was attacking Ukraine using the ballistic missiles supplied by North Korea.
Also, on January 6, 2024, Ukraine launched airstrike on the Saki
Air Base in Crimea.
Large-scale Aerial Attack Reported across Ukraine Hours after Sunak’s
Visit
It was third such large-scale attack in the New Year as more than 40
Kinzhal ballistic missiles and Cruise missiles along with several drones
hit on January 13, 2024 various parts of the nation, including Chernihiv
in the north, western areas of Khmelnytskyi, Ivano-Frankivsk and Rivne, and
Central Ukrainian regions of Dnipropetrovsk and Poltava, respectively. Ukrainian
Air Force said that many of the missiles had been either jammed or destroyed.
The barrage in the early hours of January 13, 2024 took place hours
after British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak met with President Volodymyr Zelensky
at Kyiv. Sunak and Zelensky signed a 10-year security cooperation agreement and
Britain pledged a $3.2 billion military aid package in the upcoming fiscal
year. France’s new Foreign Minister Stephane Sejourne is expected to be
in Kyiv this weekend.
Fourth Meeting on Zelensky’s 10-point Peace Proposal Attracts More
Nations
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky unveiled a 10-point peace plan to end
the war during a G-20 meeting in November 2023. The 10-point peace
plan, rejected outright by Russia, includes restoration of Ukrainian
sovereignty, creation of a tribunal to prosecute Russian war crimes, and
demining and explosive removal from Ukrainian battlefields, among others. On January
14, 2024, delegates from various nations attended for the fourth time since
the 10-point peace plan had been unveiled to discuss and debate on the
package at the Swiss resort town of Davos two days before the beginning of the 2024
World Economic Forum on January 16, 2024. At the end of the meeting, Addressing
the journalists at the conclusion of the session, Ukrainian presidential
Chief of Staff Andriy Yermak said that it’s a hopeful sign that more and
more nations were participating in each session on the 10-point peace plan,
reaching the maximum number of nations—almost half of Europe, 18 from Asia and
12 from Africa—that had participated in the fourth session. According to
Ignazio Cassis, meeting co-host and the Swiss foreign minister, said that
83 delegations were on hand for Davos talks.
Zelensky Steals Attention in Davos
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky addressed the World Economic Forum at Davos on January
16, 2024, urging the West to supply more weaponry and ensure that the
punitive sanctions—slapped in the aftermath of Russia’s February 24, 2022,
invasion—be maintained to exert pressure on Kremlin.
Shelling Kills more than Two Dozen at a Market in Russia-controlled
Region
The pro-Russian head of Donetsk region, Denis Pushilin, and other
officials of the separatist region said on January 21, 2024 that the shelling
earlier in the day on a marketplace in the Donetsk City suburb of
Tekstilshchik had killed at least 27 people and wounded more than 25.
Pushilin accused Ukraine of attacking the market as the artillery shells came
flying from Kurakhove and Krasnohorivka in the west. The January
21, 2024, shelling generated outrage and attracted criticism from the U.N. head,
Antonio Guterrez, who condemned “all attacks against civilians and
civilian infrastructure”. The Russian Foreign Ministry called the Tekstilshchik
attack as a Ukrainian “terrorist attack".
Also, a fire erupted on January 21, 2024 after a pair of drones
hit the port of Ust-Luga, circa 100 miles southwest of St. Petersburg on
the Gulf of Finland. All operations at the port had been suspended. The
fire started after explosion of a gas tank in the port’s gas terminal operated
by Russia’s second-largest natural gas company, Novatek, which accused “external”
hands of carrying out the drone attacks.
Russia Blames Ukraine for Plane Crash in the Border
Russian military said on January 24, 2024 that a transport plane
that had crashed hours earlier in the border region of Belgorod was hit by a
projectile launched from Ukraine’s Kherson region and the ill-fated Il-76
transport plane—carrying 65 Ukrainian POWs, six crew personnel and three
Russian service personnel—crashed in the border village of Yablonaovo.
At a news conference at the U.N., Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov
called for an emergency session of the Security Council on January 24, 2024.
However, because of preoccupation with Israel-Hamas War-related discussion,
Britain, current president, decided to have the session on January 25, 2024.
POW Exchange a Week after a Russian Plane with Ukrainians Blows up
A week after Moscow accused Ukraine of shooting down an aircraft flying
with the Ukrainian POWs, an exchange of prisoners took place on January 31,
2024 although numbers varied between Russian and Ukrainian accounts.
According to Moscow, 195 Ukrainian POWs were released in exchange for
exactly 195 Russian POWs. Ukraine’s Coordination Headquarters for the
Treatment of Prisoners of War disputed that number, saying 207 Ukrainian
POWs—including 27 injured Ukrainians—were released.
*************************** POTENTIAL FIRING OF MILITARY CHIEF **********************
Zelensky to Fire Army Chief
The Washington Post reported on January 31, 2024 that President Volodymyr
Zelensky had told Ukraine’s top military commander, Gen. Valeriy
Zaluzhnyi, on January 29, 2024 that he would fire him although there was no
official notification to that effect yet.
Zelensky Informs U.S. of Potential Firing of Top General
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky informed the Biden administration his decision
to fire the Ukrainian military chief, Gen. Valeriy Zaluzhnyi, according
to a February 2, 2024, report published by The Washinton Post.
Deep difference between Gen. Zaluzhnyi and President Zelensky cropped up in
recent days over the top commander’s demand for conscription of about 500,000
Ukrainians to replenish the military ranks and push decisively against the Russian
frontline. In a column on the CNN’s website on February 1, 2024, Gen.
Zaluzhnyi lamented the failure to mobilize more Ukrainian troops, a key “advantage
enjoyed by our enemy”. Biden administration didn’t support or oppose the
potential move which had yet to happen.
Zelensky Replaces Army Chief
After days of speculation and uncertainty, Ukrainian President
Volodymyr Zelensky on February 8, 2024 replaced Army Chief Gen.
Valeriy Zaluzhnyi with the ground forces chief, Col. Gen. Oleksandr Syrskyi.
The apparent fallout between the outgoing army chief and the president,
according to the media reports, stems from Gen. Zaluzhnyi’s ask for
about 500,000 conscripts to replenish the depleted ranks of personnel. President
Volodymyr Zelensky didn’t agree on such a high number of conscripts. Syrskyi
was bestowed Ukraine’s highest honor for successfully defending the capital
city of Kyiv at the outset of Russian aggression in 2022. However, his handling
of Bakhmut came under sharp criticism for high Ukrainian casualties and property
losses for a city that held little strategic value.
*************************** POTENTIAL FIRING OF MILITARY CHIEF **********************
EU Approves $54 billion Package for Ukraine’s Economy
After persuading a recalcitrant Hungary, European Union leaders on February
1, 2024 approved a $54 billion economic aid package—two-third in
loans and one-third in grants—for Ukraine. European Council President Charles
Michel said in Brussels during the day that the agreement “locks in
steadfast, long-term, predictable funding for Ukraine".
Ukrainian Marine Drones Sink Russian Ship
Ukraine’s military intelligence unit, or GRU, announced on February
14, 2024 that its “Group 13” special operation division had used advanced Magura
V5 sea drones to attack and sink a Russian amphibious ship, Caesar
Kunikov, about 2.5 miles from the Crimean port of Alupka. This
marked the second sinking of a Russian Black Sea Fleet asset in as many weeks.
On February 1, 2024, the same unit had attacked Russian missile-armed corvette
Ivanovets.
Missile Strikes, Counterstrikes Kill Dozen in Ukraine, Russia
An overnight barrage of missile strikes killed five people and wounded
10 in the Kharkiv Province. Another barrage of missiles struck Kyiv hours
later on February 15, 2024. Meanwhile, an airstrike in Russia’s Belgorod
region on February 15, 2024 killed at least six people. To underline
the need for the precision of his nation’s air defense system, Ukrainian President
Volodymyr Zelensky on February 16, 2024 is to meet with French President
Emmanuel Macron to sign a bilateral defense deal and follow up with talks in
Berlin with German Chancelor Olaf Scholz.
Russia Captures the Eastern City in a Highly Symbolic Victory
In a morale-boosting victory, Russia on February 17, 2024 seized
the Donetsk city of Avdiivka after four months of stalemate. Videos
posted online showed the Russian flags hoisted at the city and black plume of
smoke rising from the Avdiivka Coke and Chemical Plant. Earlier in the
day, Ukraine’s new military chief announced the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops
from the city, indicating that he would avert the mistake of Bakhmut—where,
as the then-ground forces chief, Col. Gen. Oleksandr Syrski had committed
fatal mistake by deciding to continue fighting against the Russian forces for
months, only to withdraw after taking heavy hit—at any cost. Russian Defense
Minister Sergei Shoigu told the Kremlin that Russian forces were clearing
the last few pockets of resistance in Avdiivka. Addressing the Munich Security
Conference on February 17, 2024, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky
urged the western governments to send his beleaguered nation more arms and ammunition
as his troops faced the shortage of ammunition in the battlefield.
Many Soldiers Left Behind the Enemy Line in Chaotic Withdrawal from
Avdiivka
The Dallas Morning News reported on February 22, 2024 that the
last weekend’s Ukrainian withdrawal from the Donetsk city of Avdiivka
was chaotic at best and irresponsible at its worst as many of the Ukrainian
soldiers were left behind at the mercy of Russian soldiers. If the media
reports turn out to be true, the retreat can’t be considered as a strategic
withdrawal to a more advantageous position as described by the Ukrainian top
military brass. Instead, it will be considered as a hasty, deliberate, and disorganized
withdrawal without proper planning.
U.S., E.U. Impose Sanctions on Russia
In the largest single stroke of sanctions, Biden administration on February
23, 2024 hit about 600 targets, levying a heavy cost on the Kremlin
for the two-year Ukraine invasion and the February 16, 2024, death of
Russian opposition leader Alexie Navalny at an Arctic penal colony. The
European Union, too, slapped sanctions on Putin’s inner circle as the two-year
anniversary inched towards.
Drones Strike Nine Russian Targets, Three Russian Rebel Groups’
Cross-Border Attack
On March 12, 2024, Ukraine once again showed its strike mettle by
launching drone attacks deep inside Russia, including a strike on the largest
oil refinery unit at Lukoil’s NORSI Refinery in the Nizhny Novgorod region.
During the day, three Russian rebel groups based in Ukraine—Freedom of
Russia Legion, Russian Volunteers Corp, and Siberian Battalion—launched attack
inside Russia.
Ukraine Fires Missiles inside Russia
Rattling the Kremlin ahead of a three-day Presidential election (March
15-17, 2024) that many international observers, western nations, and
Russian opposition leaders had slammed as sham, eight missiles were fired from
the Ukrainian side of the border on March 14, 2024, striking targets in
Belgorod region in Russia. The missile strikes killed at least two people and
wounded at least 12.
Meanwhile, Russian authorities claimed on March 14, 2024 that
Russian military had killed at least 195 mercenaries who had tried to breach
the border from the Ukrainian side into Belgorod and Kursk regions, two days
after repelling a similar cross-border attack that had killed at least 234
mercenaries.
Macron Doesn’t Rule out Military Deployment in Ukraine before Weimar
Triangle Summit
A day before French, Polish and German leaders are to meet at a summit in
Berlin that German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has characterized as something
positive as “we are coming together in the Weimar Triangle format”, French
President Emmanuel Macron on March 14, 2024 said during a joint interview
on TF1 and France 2 TV channels that if Putin won the war in
Ukraine, that would be end of the “credibility of Europe”. Macron added that if
needed, Paris was willing to deploy French military boots on Ukraine. When
Macron told [the possible military deployment] last week, both the U.S. and
Germany vehemently rejected the idea, and Russian President Vladimir Putin
responded that the Kremlin might use nuke if NATO troops were sent to Ukraine.
Several Dead in Odessa Attack, Shelling Kills Two in Russia,
Cross-border Attack Thwarted
Two missiles struck Ukrainian southern port city of Odessa on March
15, 2024, the second one following the first one and targeting the first
responders, killing at least 21 people, and wounding more than 50,
according to Odessa Deputy Mayor Svitlana Bedreha. President
Volodymyr Zelensky condemned the Russian ballistic missile attack on Odessa
and vowed that it would not go un-responded.
On March 16, 2024, Ukrainian shelling killed two people in Belgorod
region, Belgorod Regional Governor Vyacheslav Gladkov said during the
day. Separately, a drone hit a car in the village of Glotovo, a mile
from the Ukrainian border, injuring five people, according to Gov. Gladkov.
Another drone struck an oil refinery in the Samara region. Regional
Governor Dmitry Azarov said that no injury was reported in the March 16,
2024, drone attack on a Rosneft refinery in Samara.
Russian Defense Ministry said on March 16, 2024 that Russian
military had thwarted a cross-border invasion by gunmen from Ukraine’s Sumy
region. Russian Defense Ministry claimed that at least 30 cross-border
attackers were killed.
Putin Proposes Buffer Zone against Long-range Strikes, Russia to
Evacuate 9,000 Children
On March 18, 2024, Russian Vladimir Putin announced the creation
of buffer zones along the Ukrainian borders to protect against long-range
strikes launched from Ukraine as well as cross-border attacks by Ukraine-based,
anti-Kremlin Russian fighters.
Picking the thread where Putin left a day ago, Belgorod Governor Vyacheslav
Gladkov said on March 19, 2024 that there was a plan to evacuate
9,000 children from the border areas further to the east. The regional governor
was conspicuous by his omission of whether adults would be evacuated too with
the children.
Ukraine Shots down 31 Missiles, EU to Aid Ukraine from Immobilized
Russian Assets
Russia launched a ferocious streak of attacks on Kyiv, first time
in six weeks the Kremlin had targeted the capital region, in the early hours of
March 21, 2024, involving two ballistic missiles and 29 cruise
missiles. Kyiv’s air defense system neutralized all 31 incoming missiles,
but their debris fell on and damaged the buildings, injuring dozens.
Meanwhile, the EU leaders are meeting at Brussels to work on a plan to
leverage the Russian immobilized asset to provide aid as high as $3 billion a
year for a foreseeable future.
Russia Launches Heaviest Barrage yet against Ukraine’s Energy Industry
A day after launching 31 missiles—2 ballistic and 29 cruise
missiles—targeting the capital Kyiv, Russia unleashed the most potent attack
yet on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure on March 22, 2024. The scale of
the attack was just numbing—more than 60 exploding drones and 90 missiles—and killed
at least five people. The most brunt was taken by Kharkiv. Also,
targeted is the nation’s largest hydroelectric power plant, Dnipro Hydroelectric
Power Plant, which had sustained half-a-dozen missile hits. Ihor Syrota,
head of Ukraine’s hydroelectric agency, Ukrhidroenergo, said that because
of the attack, a third of the generation capacity was taken out.
The head of Ukraine’s national energy agency, Ukrenrgo, Volodymyr
Kudrytskyi, said that the March 22, 2024, assault was the worst on
the energy sector.
Russia Launches Missile Strike on Kyiv for the Third Time in Five Days
Russia on March 25, 2024 launched its third missile strike
in five days on Kyiv. The Kremlin on March 21, 2024 launched its
first missile strike in six weeks on Kyiv, and followed up with a barrage of
missile attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure—including targets in Kyiv—on
March 22, 2024.
Zelensky Continues Purge in His Inner Circle as Russia Continues
Pummeling Ukraine
What had begun as a high-level purge with the February 8, 2024,
firing of former army chief Valerii Zaluzhnyi—subsequently he was named in
early March 2024 as the Ukrainian ambassador to the U.K.—and March 26, 2024,
dismissal of National Security and Defense Council Secretary Oleksii Danilov
now snowballed into a wider cleansing of the Ukrainian President Volodymyr
Zelensky’s inner house as Zelensky on March 30, 2024 relieved a longtime
aide—Serhiy Shefir—and several advisers. Meanwhile, Russia launched
another punishing barrage of drone and missile attack during the day.
On March 30, 2024, Ukrainian energy company Centrenergo announced
that the March 22, 2024, massive missile strikes, targeting the energy
sector, had completely destroyed one of the nation’s largest thermal power
plants, Zmiiv Thermal Power Plant in Kharkiv region.
Russia Targets Ukrainian Infrastructure
On March 31, 2024, Russia launched airstrikes on Lviv and
Kharkiv, especially targeting both regions’ infrastructure. The airstrikes
killed one each in Lviv and Kharkiv. Lviv Governor Maksym Kozytskyi wrote
on Telegram that a building at Lviv was destroyed and sparked a fire. Kharkiv
Governor Oleh Syniehubov said that a missile had hit a gas station, killing
a 19-year-old man. Odessa Governor Oleh Kiper said that the debris from a
downed Russian drone ignited fire at an energy facility, leading to outage of
nearly 170,000 homes.
Russia Targets Ukrainian Infrastructure
On March 31, 2024, Russia launched airstrikes on Lviv and
Kharkiv, especially targeting both regions’ infrastructure. The airstrikes
killed one each in Lviv and Kharkiv. Lviv Governor Maksym Kozytskyi wrote
on Telegram that a building at Lviv was destroyed and sparked a fire. Kharkiv
Governor Oleh Syniehubov said that a missile had hit a gas station, killing
a 19-year-old man. Odessa Governor Oleh Kiper said that the debris from a
downed Russian drone ignited fire at an energy facility, leading to outage of
nearly 170,000 homes.
Separately, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyi, Premier Denys Shmyhal
and other officials on March 31, 2024 marked the second anniversary of the liberation of
Bucha.
Ukrainian Drones Hit Russian Airbase
Bloomberg News reported on April 5, 2024 that dozens of drones flew hundreds of
miles east into Russian territory and hit a key airbase overnight, destroying
six bombers and significantly damaging eight others. About 20 Russian soldiers
were either killed or injured in the drone attack on the airbase near Morozovsk
in Russia’s Rostov region. Rostov Governor Vasily Golubev later on April
5, 2024 said that eight Russian investigators who had gone to the airfield
near Morozovsk after the drone attack were themselves injured from the
initially unexploded ordnance.
Russia Targets Ukraine’s Second-largest City for Missile Strikes
Two S-300 missiles slammed a residential neighborhood of Kharkiv, the
second-largest Ukrainian city of a pre-war population of 1.5 million, killing
six people and wounding several others, Mayor Ihor Terekhov said on Telegram
on April 6, 2024. Russia didn’t stop there as later in the day, it
struck the city again, according to Mayor Terekhov and Kharkiv
regional Governor Oleh Synehubov. Separately, a Russian Iskander
ballistic missile hit Odessa, killing at least one person, according to Odessa
Governor Oleh Kiper. Overall, Ukraine was able to neuter three out of six
missiles and 28 out of 32 drones.
On April 6, 2024, Ukrainian military chief Gen. Oleksandr Syrskyi
and Defense Minister Rustem Umerov had a phone conversation with U.S. Defense
Secretary Llyod Austin in which they asked for more air defense systems. A day
before, President Volodymyr Zelensky urged a visiting bipartisan U.S.
Congressional delegation to speed up the aid for Ukraine as Kyiv was facing a
moment of reckoning on the battlefield.
Russia, Ukraine Trade Blames in Drone Attack on Nuclear Plant
The April 7, 2024, drone strikes on one of the six reactors of
the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant stirred the fear psychosis among
the IAEA inspectors stationed inside the plant as well as the global
nuclear power community. One person was reported to be dead, and the external
containment took the direct hit, but the internal damage—if any—was yet to be
assessed as of April 8, 2024. The Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov
accused Kyiv of launching the drone strikes on the largest nuclear power
plant in Europe. Energoatom, Ukraine’s atomic energy agency, is reported
to have blamed Russia for the attack.
Germany to Provide Patriot Defense Shield, Ammunition to Ukraine
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on April 13, 2024 told other western
allies to follow the footsteps of Germany as Zelensky and German Chancellor
Olaf Scholz discussed over phone a deal under which Berlin would send a
Patriot missile defense shields and ammunition to Ukraine. Germany will also
provide IRIS-T and Skynex air defense systems and related ammunition.
Meanwhile, a $60 billion aid package for Ukraine is stuck in the U.S. House of
Representatives, setting back efforts to help Kyiv defend against a ferocious assault
recently launched by the Kremlin, especially targeting the Kharkiv region.
U.S. Think Tank Says that Stalled Aid Package Hinders Kyiv’s Capabilities
The Washington, D.C.-based think tank Institute for the Study
of War, or ISW, said in a report on April 14, 2024 that the
continued blockade of the $95 billion aid package at the U.S. House of
Representatives would hamper Ukraine’s effort to defend itself from increasing
assault by Moscow. Currently, the Russian war strategy is to have a grinding
war in the Ukraine’s eastern front line amidst Ukrainian side constrained by
munition shortage, according to the ISW report, due to “delays in or the
permanent end of U.S. military assistance”. On April 14, 2024, a drone
hit a truck in Sumy, killing its driver. Separately, a 67-year woman was killed
after shelling hit an apartment complex in Donetsk, according to Kyiv-backed
Donetsk Governor Vadym Filashkin. Two bodies were retrieved from the debris
in Kharkiv region hit overnight by Russian air assault. Ukrainian Air Force on
April 14, 2024 said that it had shot down ten Shahed drones in Kharkiv region
overnight. However, the drone attack is not the handiwork of Russia only, Kyiv
is increasingly using it to strike deep inside Russia. On April 14, 2024, Russia-controlled
Kherson region came ostensibly under the Ukrainian drone attack, killing two
people, according to the Russia-installed leader of Kherson, Vladimir Saldo.
Russian regions of Krasnodar and Belgorod too came under the Ukrainian drone
attacks on April 14, 2024.
Trio of Missiles Kill 17 at Chernihiv, Czech Republic to Ship 500,000
Artillery Shells
In the early morning hours of April 17, 2024, three missiles
launched by Russia slammed a neighborhood downtown block of Chernihiv, a
northern Ukrainian city if 250,000, killing at least 17 people and
wounding more than 61. Russia is pushing ahead with its campaign in recent days,
shifting the frontline westward by taking advantage of Ukraine’s low ammunition
and weapons stockpiles. Ringing the alarm bell, Washington-based think tank Institute
for the Study of War said that the “Russians are breaking out of the
positional warfare".
U.S. House of Representatives Speaker Mike Johnson is facing pressure
from Biden administration and moderate Republicans to pass a Ukraine funding
bill while far-right flank of his own party is threatening to oust him if he
dares to bring a bill to provide aid to Ukraine.
President Volodymyr Zelensky informed the world how his country depended on
the western help, including missiles, drones, ammunition, and missile defense
shields. Taking advantage of the lull in western help, Russia increased the
lethality and number of drone and missile strikes, taking out the largest power
plant in Ukraine.
However, there are some bits and pieces of good news for Ukraine as Czech
Prime Minister Petr Fiala announced on April 17, 2024 that his nation would
provide Kyiv with 500,000 artillery shells that Prague had acquired from
other non-European nations. The 27-nation EU promised last year that it would
ramp up production of 1 million artillery shells for Ukraine, but was unable to
do so.
Ukraine Downs a Russian Bomber
A supersonic Russian bomber, Tu-22M3, that had just launched
missile strikes on Dnipro, killing at least seven people and wounding
more than 35, according to the regional Governor Serhiy Lysak, was hit
and brought down by a Ukrainian counterattack on April 19, 2024 close to
200 miles off the Ukrainian borders, marking for the first time that a bomber
was successfully downed by a Ukrainian counterattack since the invasion almost
two years ago.
Ukraine Withdrawing Abrams Tanks to Save them from Russian Drone Attacks
Once revered in the battlefields, things have much changed for Abrams
M1A1 battle tanks in Russia-Ukraine War since the U.S. has delivered 31
of them to Ukraine in January 2023. They were initially a successful
deterrent, but with drones on the sky and added firepower, Russia made it very
difficult for Ukraine to save this military asset from assault and destruction.
During the capture of Avdiivka, several Abrams were destroyed or lost to
Russian army. Joint Chiefs of Staff Vice Chairman Admiral Christopher Grady
said on April 25, 2024 that there would be a reset policy with respect
to Abrams as they had been pulled from the frontline.
Ukraine Cedes Three Villages as Kyiv Waits for U.S. Military Aid to
Arrive
Although the $61 billion aid package recently passed by the U.S.
Congress and signed by President Joe Biden is a lifesaver for Ukraine, the
time is of a great essence and the military aid such as munition, missiles,
missile defense shields and other military hardware—including some new weaponry
such as F-16 warplanes and ATACMS missiles that have capabilities in hitting
targets deeper within Russia and Crimea—are to arrive as soon as possible to
hold the frontlines and resist Russian advance. On April 28, 2024,
Ukrainian army chief, Col. Gen. Oleksandr Syrskyi, said that Ukrainian
army had to withdraw from three villages west of Avdiivka. This year
(2024) is seen as a bellwether of effectiveness of Ukrainian defense posture against
ever-aggressive Russian attacks.
UZBEKISTAN
Long-Time Dictator Dies
One of the world's most ruthless dictator who had single-handedly suppressed political dissent as well as Islamic extremism, Islam Karimov, 78, the president of Uzbekistan has been announced dead on September 2, 2016 days after he had a major stroke. Although Karimov earned notoriety in suppressing dissent, including machine-gunning unarmed protesters at Tashkent in 2005, the west looked the other way around as he had been a strategic partner in the fight against al-Qaeda and other terrorist groups.
