DRAFT

May 21, 2026
U.S. Indicts Raul Castro over Dissident Aircraft Downing

Trump administration on May 20, 2026 indicted Former Cuban President Raul Castro in the 1996 downing of two planes flown by a Miami-based exile group, Brothers to the Rescue. Raul Castro was the defense minister when Cuban MiG-29 fighter jets launched missile strikes on two Cessna planes north of Havana, outside the Cuban airspace, killing all four occupants of the two small planes. The charges are related to destroying the planes and killing their four occupants on February 24, 1996. 

Cuban President Miguel Diaz-Canel rebutted the indictment on an X post, defending the downing as "legitimate self-defense".

ASIA III

CHINA

Days after Trump's Visit, Putin Scores Big Victory with His Own Larger-than-life China Visit

Days after President Donald Trump's much trumpeted visit to China which turned out to be the sub-optimal in outcome, Russian President Vladimir Putin visited China. The Associated Press on May 20, 2026 reported that Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin had overseen at least 40 trade and commercial agreements. Xi called the countries' ties having reached the highest level. According to Xinhua news agency, the bilateral trade stood at $228 billion in 2025. The Russian oil exports to China climbed by 35% in the first quarter of 2026. 

TAIWAN

Trump Yet to Make a Decision on Taiwan Aid Package

A day after hearing a stern message from his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, U.S. President Donald Trump on the penultimate day, May 15, 2026, of his three-day [May 13-15, 2026] China trip said that he had yet to make up his mind whether to go ahead with the $11.5 billion weapons package that the U.S. government had announced with much fanfare on December 18, 2025. 

However, Trump administration officials are not talking in unison as far as Taiwan vis-a-vis China policy is concerned as the administration's top diplomat, Marco Rubio, has told the NBC News that U.S. policy remains unchanged and it will be a mistake for Beijing to forcibly take over Taiwan. 

ISRAEL II

Netanyahu Reported to Have Secretly Visited UAE in the Midst of War
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's office on May 13, 2026 acknowledged that the prime minister had secretly visited UAE and met with President Sheikh Mohmad bin Zayed Al Nahyan in the midst of the Israeli-U.S. war with Iran. The revelation by the PMO came a day after U.S. Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee said that Israel had offered Iron Dome defense technology and personnel to UAE to defend against incoming Iranian missiles and drones. 

Israel Kills the Last of Surviving Hamas Architects of Oct 7 Attack

Israel carried out airstrikes to kill Izz al-Din al-Haddad, commander of Hamas' military wing, one of the last surviving members of the leadership structure that had planned, organized and executed the October 7, 2023, audacious attack on Israel. Hamas on May 16, 2026 confirmed al-Haddad's death. It added that the May 15, 2026, Israeli attack killed, in addition to Izz al-Din al-Haddad, the wife and daughter of the Qassam Brigades' commander. 

Emerging MOU Troubling, Israeli Opposition Leader Says

Israeli opposition leader Yair Lapid on May 25, 2026 has called the emerging Memorandum Of Understanding, or MOU, "disturbing" as the potential U.S. deal with Iran doesn't enhance several Israeli strategic objectives. Lapid accused Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of losing out both credibility and leverage with Trump administration. Lapid said that the waning influence of Bibi was so stark that his far-right government couldn't even muster courage to protest what Trump said last week that "Netanyahu will do whatever I ask him to do". Lapid, a prime minister for a brief stint in 2022, reiterated that "Israel is a sovereign state, we are not a vassal state". 

In the run-up to the October 2026 parliamentary election, Yair Lapid, one of the few Israeli public figures who supports independent Palestinian state, has merged his "Yesh Atid" party with Naftali Bennett's political party. 

Gaza Conflict Steps onto 1000th Day

Although a tenuous truce is hanging on balance, the international community is woken up with a grim milestone on July 2, 2026 as the day marked the 1000th day since the conflict had begun with the Hamas' October 7, 2023, audacious attack in southern Israel. The grim milestone is written on bloody statistics of over 73,000 deaths in the Gaza Strip.

Gaza Rebuilding Pledge Stands at $1 billion

European Union on July 13, 2026 convened a meeting at Brussels of the Palestine Donors Group that included wealthy Arab emirates and European nations. European Commissioner for Mediterranean Dubravka Suica said afterwards that the PDG members had pledged a total of $1 billion for Gaza reconstruction. 

Hamas to Start Disarmament

On July 30, 2026, according to unknown U.S. and Board of Peace officials, media reports emerged a pending start of Hamas disarmament in Gaza. The latest announcement was the fine-tuned and finessed version of the agreement signed last year to end the war in Gaza. President Donald Trump followed up in a social media post that the disarmament would be carried out in "carefully structured phases". 

According to The Associated Press report published on July 31, 2026, Hamas-run Gaza police force will hand over weapons to a yet-to-arrive Palestinian technocratic committee, formally known as National Committee for the Administration of Gaza. No body knows when this committee will arrive at Gaza and when the disarmament will start, but Hamas on July 31, 2026 agreed to it. The transfer of weapons to National Committee for the Administration of Gaza will not include the ones possessed by Hamas activists and militants. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is conspicuous by his silence on Hamas-led police force's disarmament plan.

The heavy weapons disarmament, destruction of tunnels and weapons storage sites will follow after the arrival of National Committee for the Administration of Gaza and deployment of International Stabilization Force. This phase will be tied to gradual and phased withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza. Currently Israel occupies 60% of Gaza Strip.